1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for specific varieties, it gives the following ratings: - **Weak and volatile**: Rebar, Hot - rolled coil [1] - **Positive spread participation**: Iron ore [1] - **Weak in the medium - term**: Coke [1] - **Weak operation**: Coking coal, Manganese silicon, Ferrosilicon [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The demand for steel has not improved, and it will operate weakly in the medium - term. The iron ore market is affected by the production cuts of Xinjiang steel mills and will rebound with the finished products. Coke lacks upward drivers and will maintain a weak trend. Coking coal has a loose supply outlook and will run weakly. The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak, and market sentiment should be monitored [3][7][10][13][16] 3. Summary by Variety Steel (Rebar and Hot - rolled coil) - **Core view**: Weak and volatile, with the medium - term outlook remaining weak due to unimproved demand [1][3] - **Main logic**: For rebar, there are news of some steel mills controlling production, but it's not policy - driven, and full - scale production cuts are unlikely. Steel mills have positive profits and high production enthusiasm, as evidenced by the significant increase in hot - metal production. The short - term rebound needs continuous improvement in demand. For hot - rolled coil, supply and demand have both increased, inventory has decreased month - on - month, but anti - dumping affects market expectations, and it lacks continuous upward drivers [1][4] - **Price range**: Rebar [3150, 3250]; Hot - rolled coil [3350, 3450] [1] Iron Ore - **Core view**: Participate in positive spreads [1] - **Main logic**: Shipping has increased month - on - month, arrivals have slightly decreased, and port inventory has slightly increased. The 10% production cut of four major steel mills in Xinjiang is expected to reduce daily crude - steel output by about 0.2 million tons, with a small overall impact. Short - term ore prices will strengthen with steel prices [1][8] - **Price range**: [750, 810] [1] Coke - **Core view**: Weak in the medium - term [1] - **Main logic**: Coke spot prices are continuously being lowered, and coke - enterprise profits are in continuous losses. However, coke production has increased. Hot - metal production has increased significantly month - on - month, and coke inventory has decreased. But the overall weakness of the black - series products and the unresolved supply contradiction of coking coal drag down coke prices [1][11] - **Price range**: [1570, 1640] [1] Coking Coal - **Core view**: Weak operation [1] - **Main logic**: Coal production from January to February has increased significantly year - on - year, and supply pressure is rising. Although Mongolian coal customs clearance has decreased recently, domestic production has rebounded rapidly. Coking enterprises produce as needed, and coking - coal demand is weak. Overall inventory is high, and upstream sales pressure is large [1][14] - **Price range**: [1000, 1050] [1] Ferroalloys (Manganese silicon and Ferrosilicon) - **Core view**: Weak operation, and market sentiment should be monitored [16] - **Main logic**: For manganese silicon, production areas are operating at a high level, and downstream demand growth is less than expected. Although manganese - ore quotes have adjusted, ore - price decline is limited. The delivery - warehouse inventory has reached nearly 570,000 tons, and supply pressure remains. For ferrosilicon, production cuts and maintenance in some areas have increased, but the impact on supply is limited. There are news of foreign ferrosilicon price cuts, and export competition may intensify [1][18] - **Price range**: Manganese silicon [6000, 6350]; Ferrosilicon [5900, 6100] [1]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 短期关税口风缓和，俄乌问题磋商取得进展，另外特朗普变数仍然较大，但长 | | 黄金 | 高位调整 | 期关税核弹困扰仍在，中长期看全球旧秩序破坏，黄金配置价值长存，长多可 | | | | 介入【690-710】 | | | | 白银自身逻辑不变，德国财政刺激通过，中国择机降息降准白银等有色有支撑， | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 但白银跟随黄金走势，目前白银基本面比较确定，高位震荡思路对待，8500 | | | | 附近压力明显，白银重回震荡区间。【8100-8400】 | | | | 特朗普对等关税 4 月 2 日或兑现，市场担忧铜进口 25%关税落地，短期高铜价负 | | 铜 | 高位震荡 | 反馈抑制需求，建议投机多单谨慎持有，逐渐止盈落袋，等待回调后再背靠均线入 | | | | 场，沪铜关注区间【79000-85000】 | | | | 湖南某地表水铊浓度异常，沪锌闻讯拉涨，但后续证实对当地冶炼影响较小，下游 | | 锌 | 反弹承压 | 需求疲软，短期锌高位震荡，中长期看，锌供增需弱 ...

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 原油 偏强 美国制裁伊朗和委内瑞拉，油价偏强。美国对伊朗石油销售实施第四轮制裁；特朗普宣 布将对进口委内瑞拉原油和天然气的国家征收关税；美国原油库存继续累库。SC 【535-550】 LPG 偏强 成本端提振，液化气短线偏强。上游原油在地缘以及补偿性减产带动下走强；供需双弱， 下游开工回落，港口库存上升，处于高位，商品量下降。PG【4550-4650】 L 反弹 现货跌势继续放缓，基差走弱，成本支撑好转，短期盘面减仓反弹。中长期，装置投产 压力偏高，反弹偏空。L【7665-7805】 PP 反弹 成本端原油反弹，上游装置检修力度加强，供给压力边际缓解，短期震荡偏强对待。中 长期，装置投产压力偏高，限制上行空间。PP【7285-7385】 PVC 反弹 短期检修量仍偏少，板块情绪好转，盘面减仓反弹。4-5 月常规春检即将开启，回调偏多。 关注春检力度及出口的可持续性。V【5100-5220】 PX 反弹 PX 装置按计划检修，需求端 PTA 检修量整体偏高，供需改善相对有限；原油价格近期企 稳但预期走弱；库存去库但整体偏高；短期来看，3-4 月基本面改善相对有限，近期跟随 原 ...

宏观金银宏观周报： 国内喜忧参半，海外数据"打架" ，特朗普持续搅动资产价格 王维芒 资格编号：Z0000148 【宏观总结】大类资产，特朗普政经地缘等避险押注增加，黄金上涨，宏观情绪刺激基 本金属走高，特朗普施压原油价格回落。海外经济，美国就业数据打架，美国PMI数据超预 期走好，另外短期各国通胀低于预期，货币预期宽松，特朗普上任政令变化大，秩序重建较 多。中国经济，国内PMI整体回落，房地产市场分化，央行净回笼资金。 【金银逻辑】贸易脱钩持续存在，地缘变数较多，G2关系走跌，流动性宽松环境，支撑 黄金长期走高，短期美元会带来波动，但是不改变黄金中长期避险属性。 【金银策略】 特朗普交易是金银市场的主要矛盾主线，另外贸易摩擦、新的局部地缘争 端再起，未来四年全球经济失序加剧，黄金战略价值仍然存在，长线继续做多。 国内刺激 政策和美国、日本经济增长预期尚可，白银基本面供需没有意外，短期跟随黄金和经济预期 波动，主力合约冲高回落，白银继续高位区间调整思路对待。 【关注】国内政策成效、特朗普变数，地缘和美数据（投资有风险 入市需谨慎） 2 1 特朗普交易主导资产价格波动 2 海外未来降息预期分歧大 3 国内数据喜 ...