1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Oscillating [7][8] - Polysilicon: Oscillating with an upward bias [9][11] - Lithium carbonate: Oscillating [12] 2. Core Views of the Report - The anti - involution sentiment has further fermented, leading to a strong price trend for new energy metals. The central financial meeting's mention of phasing out backward production capacity in an orderly manner has strengthened investors' expectations of supply - side contraction for silicon, and there are also disruptions in domestic lithium supply. The market sentiment is optimistic, but there is a risk of bilateral price fluctuations for new energy metals [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis** - As of July 17, the spot prices of industrial silicon continued to rise, with the oxygen - passing 553 in East China at 9,200 yuan/ton and 421 at 9,500 yuan/ton [7]. - As of June 2025, the monthly output of industrial silicon was 327,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%. The cumulative production from January to June was 1.872 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.8% [7]. - In May, the export volume of industrial silicon was 55,652 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.5%. The cumulative export from January to May was 272,382 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% [7]. - In May, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 92.9GW, a month - on - month increase of 105.5% and a year - on - year increase of 388.0%. The cumulative newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity from January to May was 197.9GW, a year - on - year increase of 150.0% [7]. - **Main Logic** - Northwest large factories are continuously reducing production, providing price support. The resumption of production in the southwest is slower than in previous years, but some silicon factories have resumed production due to the price increase. The demand side is still weak, and the inventory tends to accumulate in the long term [8]. - **Outlook** - The anti - involution sentiment continues, and the spot and futures prices have rebounded. The silicon price is expected to be oscillating with a short - term upward bias, but the slowdown in warehouse receipt removal will limit the upside [8]. 3.2 Polysilicon - **Information Analysis** - According to the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of N - type re - feeding materials is 40,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 41,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12.4% [9]. - In May, China's polysilicon export volume was about 2,097.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 66.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30%. The cumulative export from January to May was 9,167.32 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.68%. The import volume in May was about 793 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.9% [9]. - **Main Logic** - The supply - side news in the silicon industry chain is volatile. The polysilicon futures price has continued to rebound, and policy expectations have significantly boosted the silicon price. The supply is expected to increase in June - July, and the demand may weaken in the second half of the year. The short - term price is expected to be strong, but there is a risk of reverse fluctuations if the policy is not implemented as expected [11]. - **Outlook** - The anti - involution policy has significantly boosted the polysilicon price. The short - term price is expected to be strong, but there is a risk of price decline if the policy expectations are not fulfilled [11]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis** - On July 17, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 2.32% to 67,960 yuan, and the total position of lithium carbonate contracts increased by 17,801 to 637,419 [11]. - On July 17, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 64,950 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate price remained unchanged at 63,350 yuan/ton [12]. - **Main Logic** - The supply - side disturbances have been hyped up. The current supply - demand fundamentals have not changed much. The short - term sentiment is positive, and the supply - demand margin has improved. The price is likely to rise but the upside may be limited [12]. - **Outlook** - In the short term, warehouse receipts and sentiment support the price, and the price is expected to remain oscillating [12].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The overnight economic data in the US showed an overall improvement. The better - than - expected retail data in June and the decline in the weekly initial jobless claims drove the short - term strengthening of the US dollar and US stocks, putting pressure on precious metals, which are expected to maintain a short - term volatile trend. Gold maintains a long - term bullish trend, and silver retains a medium - term bullish view with cautious consideration of its elasticity. Attention should be paid to the new round of trade game in the first half of August and the change in interest - rate cut expectations brought by the global central bank meeting in the second half of August, as well as the trading interference from the "shadow Fed chairman" in the second half of the year. The weekly COMEX gold is expected to be in the range of [3250, 3450], and COMEX silver in the range of [36, 40] [1][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, the highest since March this year, with an expected increase of 0.1% and a previous decrease of 0.9%. Core retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, with an expected increase of 0.3% and a previous decrease (revised) of 0.2% [2]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 221,000, with an expected 235,000. The four - week average was 229,500. The number of continued jobless claims as of the week ending July 5 was 1.956 million [2]. - US President Trump said he has no plan to fire Fed Chairman Powell unless fraud is proven. He also said he would accept Powell's resignation if Powell wants to [2]. - The Fed's latest Beige Book showed that economic activity in the US slightly rebounded from June to July. Import tariffs pushed up costs, and inflation may accelerate by the end of summer. Employment slightly increased, but companies were more cautious in hiring and lay - off decisions. The Fed's policy rate remained unchanged, and most officials were waiting to observe the impact of trade policies and inflation trends [2]. Price Logic The market had short - term fluctuations around the issue of Powell's possible dismissal. After Trump denied the dismissal rumor, market sentiment subsided. The overall improvement in US economic data drove the short - term strengthening of the US dollar and US stocks, putting pressure on precious metals, which maintained a short - term volatile trend. Long - term gold is bullish, and medium - term silver is also bullish with cautious consideration of its elasticity [3]. Outlook The weekly COMEX gold is expected to be in the range of [3250, 3450], and COMEX silver in the range of [36, 40] [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthened. There is a higher probability of the implementation of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of the supply - side "anti - involution" policy on assets. Overseas, focus on the progress of tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Be vigilant against volatility spikes and pay attention to non - US dollar assets. Maintain a strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights Overseas Macro - The "reciprocal tariff" rates of the US on most economies have been released, with most rates (except for Japan and Malaysia) being lowered, reducing short - term tariff uncertainties. In May, the US wholesale sales monthly rate was - 0.3% (expected 0.2%, previous value revised from 0.1% to 0%), and the wholesale inventory monthly rate final value was - 0.3% (expected - 0.3%, previous value - 0.3%). In June, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed was 3.0% (expected 3.1%, previous value 3.2%). In June, the new non - farm employment in the US was better than expected, but there were concerns in the employment market. On July 4th, the "Big and Beautiful" Act was implemented, which may have limited long - term boost to the US economy and will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [7]. Domestic Macro - In June, China's export volume rebounded slightly year - on - year to 5.8%, CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year. The improvement in exports to the US was the main boost, and the "anti - involution" policy had a significant impact on some domestic - demand - oriented commodities. On July 1st, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission proposed to "regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with regulations and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity" [7]. Asset Views - Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthened. Pay attention to the impact of the supply - side "anti - involution" on assets. Overseas, focus on tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Be vigilant against volatility spikes and pay attention to non - US dollar assets. Maintain a strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights Macro - Domestically, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end will implement established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [8]. Finance - The sentiment in the stock market rebounds, and the bond market maintains a volatile trend. Stock index futures continue a mild upward trend; stock index options remain cautious; the sentiment in the bond market for treasury bond futures weakens [8]. Precious Metals - The risk preference rises, and precious metals such as gold and silver continue to adjust [8]. Shipping - The sentiment in the shipping market falls. For the container shipping route to Europe, focus on the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases [8]. Black Building Materials - Iron ore performs strongly, supporting the price center of the sector. Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, and others are in a volatile state, with different influencing factors for each [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - There is a game between reciprocal tariff negotiations and domestic policy stimulus expectations. Most non - ferrous metal varieties are in a volatile state, with some showing a downward trend, such as zinc and nickel [8]. Energy and Chemicals - OPEC+ over - expected production increase will drag down the energy and chemical sector to fluctuate weakly. Different chemical products have different short - term trends, such as some showing volatile rises, some showing volatile falls, and some remaining volatile [10]. Agriculture - In the agricultural sector, the prices of some products such as pigs are under pressure, and different agricultural products such as grains, oils, and livestock are in a volatile state, affected by various factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is to approach it with a mindset of weakening oscillations. Specific varieties have different ratings: crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, PTA, and urea are rated as "weakening oscillations"; PX, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle - chip, PP, plastic, PVC, and methanol are rated as "oscillations"; pure benzene is rated as "oscillating strongly"; and caustic soda is rated as "oscillating strongly" [3][7][8][11][13][14][17][19][22][24][26][27][28][30][31] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international oil price continues to oscillate and consolidate. The reduction in crude oil production in the Iraqi region provides some support, but the increase in refined oil inventories in the United States and the expected inventory build - up in the future may lead to weakening oscillations in oil prices if geopolitical disturbances subside. For most energy and chemical products, factors such as supply and demand, cost, and market sentiment lead to an overall trend of weakening oscillations or oscillations. For example, asphalt prices are overvalued, high - sulfur fuel oil prices face downward pressure, and the cost - end support for LPG weakens [1][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical disturbances should be monitored. With the expected inventory build - up in the future, if geopolitical disturbances weaken, oil prices will gradually face pressure and are expected to weaken and oscillate [7] - **LPG**: The cost - end support weakens, the fundamental situation of supply - demand remains loose, and the PG futures may oscillate weakly [3][11] - **Asphalt**: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely overvalued stage, and the asphalt price difference is expected to decline as the warehouse receipts increase [8] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices face significant downward pressure, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and the price is expected to weaken and oscillate [8][9][11] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate and weaken, facing factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [11] - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol production areas show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is relatively stable. The futures price oscillates in the short term [24][26] - **Urea**: The hype sentiment slows down, and the futures may return to the fundamentals. In the short term, it may face pressure to operate [24] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly start - up rate declines, and the downstream start - up rate also decreases. It continues to oscillate and consolidate [17][18] - **PX**: There is insufficient driving force, and it oscillates and consolidates [13] - **PTA**: The driving force is not obvious, and it consolidates. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13] - **Short - Fiber**: The basis weakens, and there are no major contradictions in the industrial chain. The processing fee will remain stable, and the absolute value will follow the raw materials to fluctuate [19][21] - **Bottle - Chip**: Production cuts support the processing fee, and the absolute value follows the raw materials to fluctuate [22] - **PP**: The maintenance rate slightly increases, and it oscillates [28] - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate slightly increases, and it oscillates [27] - **Pure Benzene**: The near - end long positions in styrene leave the market, and pure benzene follows to decline. In the medium term, the pattern from July to August is acceptable [14] - **Styrene**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the price drops [16][17] - **PVC**: Market sentiment warms up again, and it mainly oscillates. The fundamental pressure still exists [30] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price reaches the peak, and it oscillates and operates. The 09 futures contract oscillates, facing downward pressure and support [31] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.96 with a change of - 0.01, and the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is 38 with a change of - 10 [33] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the basis of asphalt is 192 with a change of 0, and the warehouse receipt is 82300 [34] - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also corresponding values and changes in the inter - variety spread. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 298 with a change of - 4 [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the weekly data of silicon manganese and silicon iron alloys on July 18, 2025, including daily average output, weekly operating rate, weekly apparent demand, and sample enterprise inventory, and compares them with the data on July 11, 2025 [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Silicon Manganese - **Daily Average Output**: The daily average output on July 18, 2025, was 26,120 tons/day, an increase of 80 tons/day compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Weekly Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate on July 18, 2025, was 40.53%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Weekly Apparent Demand**: The weekly apparent demand on July 18, 2025, was 123,381 tons, a decrease of 1,547 tons compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Sample Enterprise Inventory**: The sample enterprise inventory on July 18, 2025, was 216,300 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. Silicon Iron - **Daily Average Output**: The daily average output on July 18, 2025, was 14,285 tons/day, an increase of 175 tons/day compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Weekly Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate on July 18, 2025, was 32.45%, an increase of 1.25 percentage points compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Weekly Apparent Demand**: The weekly apparent demand on July 18, 2025, was 20,013.7 tons, a decrease of 153.6 tons compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Sample Enterprise Inventory**: The sample enterprise inventory on July 18, 2025, was 63,540 tons, a decrease of 6,700 tons compared to July 11, 2025 [2].

T 限公司 焦煤周度数据 2025年07月18日 | 关单 | 陶存辉 | 薛原 | 冉宇蒙 钟宏 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号 F03122523 | 从业资格号 F03099559 | 从业资格号 F03100815 | 从业资格号 F03144159 | 从业资格号 F03118246 | | 投资咨询号 Z0019832 | 投资咨询号 Z0020955 | 投资咨询号 Z0021807 | 投资咨询号 Z0022199 | 投资咨询号 Z0022727 | | 单位:万吨 | 区域 | 2025-07-16 | 2025-07-09 | 环比 | | 煤矿原煤库存 | 山西 | 66. 58 | 75. 79 | -9.21 | | | 河北 | 54. 69 | 52. 69 | 2 | | | 山东 | 91.63 | 113. 97 | -22. 34 | | | 专国 | 236. 4 | 268. 15 | -31. 75 | | 单位:万吨 | 区域 | 2025-07-16 | 2025-07-09 | 环比 | | 煤矿精煤库 ...

中信期货有限公司 CITIC Futures Company Limited 双焦周度数据 2025年07月18日 研究员: | 会联 | 陶存辉 | 薛原 | 冉宇蒙 | 钟宏 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号 F03122523 | 从业资格号 F03099559 | 从业资格号 F03100815 | 从业资格号 F03144159 | 从业资格号 F03118246 | | | 投资咨询号 Z0019832 | 投资咨询号 Z0020955 | 投资咨询号 Z0021807 | 投资咨询号 Z0022199 | 投资咨询号 Z0022727 | | | 图表 2: 焦炭周度数据 | | | | | | | 分类 | 指标 | 2025-07-11 | 2025-07-18 | | 环比 | | 247家钢厂 | 日均铁水产量 | 239. 81 | 242. 44 | | 2. 63 | | | 产量 | 47. 19 | 64. 21 | | -0. 1 | | | 库存 | 637.8 | 638.99 | 1. 19 | | | ...

玻璃供需周报 2025年07月18日 冉宇蒙 从业资格号:F03144159 投资咨询号: Z0022199 | | 华北企业库存:万 | 华东企业库存:万 | 华中企业库存:万 | 华南企业库存:万 | 西南企业库存:万 | 东北企业库存:万 | 西北企业库存:万 | 全国企业库存:万 | 浮法玻璃日熔:万 | 周度产量:万重箱 | 周度表需 : 万重箱 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 重組 | 重組 | 重組 | 重組 | 重組 | 重組 | 重組 | 童箱 | 座 | | | | 2025-07-18 | 865. 68 | 1406. 5 | 738.7 | 1045 | 1218.7 | 771.3 | 448 | 6493.9 | 15. 84 | 2217. 95 | 2434. 3 | | 2025-07-11 | 872. 48 | 1473.6 | 803 | 1049 | 1254 | 789. 15 | 469 | 6710.2 | 15. 84 | 2214 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash Supply and Demand Weekly Report [36] - Researchers: Hui Dian, Tao Cunhui, Ran Yumeng, Zhong Hong, Xue Yuan [1] Group 2: Inventory Data - On July 18, 2025, the national enterprise inventory was 190.56 million tons, with 78.3 million tons of light soda ash and 112.26 million tons of heavy soda ash [2] - From June 13 to July 18, 2025, the inventory in different regions and the overall national inventory showed certain fluctuations [2] Group 3: Production and Consumption Data - On July 18, 2025, the total production was 73.32 million tons, with 31.85 million tons of light soda ash and 41.47 million tons of heavy soda ash [2] - From June 27 to July 18, 2025, the production and apparent consumption of soda ash, light soda ash, and heavy soda ash showed different trends [2] Group 4: Daily Melting Data - On July 18, 2025, the total daily melting was 24.75 million tons, including 15.84 million tons of float glass and 8.91 million tons of photovoltaic glass [2] - From June 27 to July 18, 2025, the daily melting of float glass and photovoltaic glass also changed [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests an overall view of "oscillating weakly" for the energy and chemical industry, with specific varieties having different trends such as oscillation, oscillation weakly, oscillation strongly, etc. [1][3][4] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices have fallen for three consecutive days, and the market is closely watching whether US inventories will accumulate effectively. The supply pressure of the chemical industry is increasing, and the demand has shown weakness since June, with an increasing possibility of the industry gradually weakening. [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Trends of Crude Oil and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. In the context of a relatively certain inventory accumulation expectation, oil prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly after the weakening of geopolitical disturbances. [8] - **Chemicals**: Supply has substantially increased, while demand has shown weakness since June. The probability of the chemical industry gradually weakening is increasing. For example, the supply pressure of olefins will suppress industrial profits, and the polyester chain may see a decline in direct demand for raw materials. [2] 2. Analysis of Each Variety - **LPG**: The support from the cost side is weakening, the fundamental pattern of looseness remains unchanged, and the PG futures may oscillate weakly. [3][13] - **Asphalt**: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely over - estimated stage. [8][9] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is relatively large. [3][9][10] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate and weaken. [3][13] - **Methanol**: The domestic operating load is low, and methanol oscillates. [3][22][23] - **Urea**: The hype sentiment has slowed down, and the futures may return to the fundamentals, with short - term pressure on urea. [3][23][24] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The resumption of device production is less than expected, and ethylene glycol will continue the low - inventory pattern. [3][17][18] - **PX**: The US sanctions against Russia are less than expected, and PX oscillates and consolidates. [15] - **PTA**: The driving force is not obvious, and PTA consolidates. [15] - **Short - Fiber**: It fluctuates with raw materials, and the basis remains stable. [18][20] - **Bottle Chip**: The basis weakens slightly, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials. [20][21] - **PP**: As oil prices fall, PP oscillates. [3][26] - **Plastic**: As oil prices decline, plastic oscillates and weakens. [3][25] - **Pure Benzene**: Due to the lack of confidence of styrene bulls and the decline of crude oil, pure benzene falls back. [15] - **Styrene**: The risk of cornering declines, and styrene falls. [15][16][17] - **PVC**: The sentiment cools down in stages, and PVC runs weakly. [3][28] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has reached the peak, and caustic soda oscillates. [3][28][29] 3. Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.9 with a change of - 0.03, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is 48 with a change of 22. [30] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the basis of asphalt is 192 with a change of - 1, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82300. [31] - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also specific values and changes for inter - variety spreads. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 294 with a change of 47. [32] - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: It involves the monitoring of basis and spreads of various chemical varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented in the text. [33][45][57]