Group 1: Core View - The EIA weekly data shows that oil product inventories decreased and apparent demand rebounded. The decline in US commercial crude oil inventory in the week of May 23 was mainly due to the increase in net crude oil exports. Gasoline and diesel inventories both decreased, with diesel inventory reaching an absolute low. The apparent demand for refined oil products rebounded in a single week. Currently, US production is relatively stable, and the demand side shows a seasonal recovery but with limited highlights. The single - week data on the inventory side is relatively positive [4]. Group 2: Data Summary Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory change: decreased by 2.795 million barrels (previous value: increased by 1.328 million barrels) [4][6] - US Cushing crude oil inventory change: increased by 75,000 barrels (previous value: decreased by 457,000 barrels) [6] - US strategic petroleum inventory change: increased by 820,000 barrels (previous value: increased by 843,000 barrels) [6] - US gasoline inventory change: decreased by 2.441 million barrels (previous value: increased by 816,000 barrels) [6] - US diesel inventory change: decreased by 724,000 barrels (previous value: increased by 579,000 barrels) [6] - US jet fuel inventory change: increased by 607,000 barrels (previous value: increased by 462,000 barrels) [6] - US fuel oil inventory change: increased by 270,000 barrels (previous value: decreased by 760,000 barrels) [6] - US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR): decreased by 665,000 barrels (previous value: increased by 4.931 million barrels) [6] Production and Consumption Data - US crude oil production: 13.401 million barrels per day (previous value: 13.392 million barrels per day) [6] - US refined oil apparent demand: 20.242 million barrels per day (previous value: 20.031 million barrels per day) [6] - US gasoline apparent demand: 9.452 million barrels per day (previous value: 8.644 million barrels per day) [6] - US diesel apparent demand: 3.893 million barrels per day (previous value: 3.412 million barrels per day) [6] - US crude oil imports: 6.351 million barrels per day (previous value: 6.089 million barrels per day) [6] - US crude oil exports: 4.301 million barrels per day (previous value: 3.507 million barrels per day) [6] - US refinery crude oil processing volume: 16.328 million barrels per day (previous value: 16.49 million barrels per day) [6] - US refinery utilization rate: 90.2% (previous value: 90.7%) [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the energy and chemical market, highlighting that the US restocking falls short of expectations, leading to a weakening of the chemical industry landscape. Multiple factors, including geopolitical events, policy uncertainties, and supply - demand dynamics, impact different energy and chemical products, resulting in various price trends and market outlooks for each product [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: On May 29, SC2507 closed at 467.1 yuan/barrel (+3.11%), and Brent2508 at 63.36 dollars/barrel (-1.51%). Kazakhstan's inability to cut production strengthens the expectation of OPEC+ quota increase in July, suppressing oil prices. However, short - term macro and geopolitical factors are positive. It is expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Asphalt**: The main futures closed at 3526 yuan/ton. With various negative factors such as high - yield US debt crisis, OPEC+ over - production, and sufficient domestic raw material supply, the asphalt price is over - valued and expected to decline. Although demand expectations are improving, the upside space is limited [6][7]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The main contract closed at 3037 yuan/ton. Affected by factors like OPEC+ over - production, increased import tariffs in China, and reduced demand in Egypt, it is over - valued and expected to decline with a weakening trend [7]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The main contract closed at 3530 yuan/ton. It follows the crude oil price fluctuations. Currently, it has low valuation and is affected by factors such as green fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution [10]. - **LPG**: On May 29, PG2507 closed at 4120 yuan/ton (+0.56%). With the weakening of crude oil and the reduction of Saudi CP contract prices, the cost support weakens. It is expected to bottom - out and fluctuate [8][10]. - **PX**: On May 29, PX CFR China Taiwan was 852(16) dollars/ton. Short - term crude oil weakness squeezes PX cost. Considering supply and demand, it is expected to continue to consolidate [12]. - **PTA**: On May 29, the spot price was 4960(93) yuan/ton. With continuous inventory reduction and the support of major suppliers, it is expected to be relatively strong and fluctuate [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: On May 29, the price was in a low - level upward trend. The overall supply increases while demand decreases, and it is expected to fluctuate during the maintenance and inventory - reduction period [14][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: On May 29, it rose following the suspension of US tariffs. With the decline of printing, dyeing, and weaving operations and the shortfall of US restocking, it is expected to fluctuate [15][16]. - **Bottle Chips**: On May 29, the price of polyester raw material futures rebounded. With the decline of downstream operations and the shortfall of US restocking, the processing fee expansion is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [16][18]. - **Methanol**: On May 29, the futures price fluctuated. With the increase of port inventory and supply pressure, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [21]. - **Urea**: On May 29, the factory - warehouse and market low - end prices were 1810(+0) and 1860(+0) respectively. With the increase of supply and weak domestic demand, the spot price may be under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [21]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: On May 29, the main contract fluctuated. Affected by factors such as the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy, oil price increase concerns, and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [24]. - **PP**: On May 29, the main contract fluctuated. With limited macro - level boosting, oil price increase concerns, and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [25][26]. - **PVC**: The benchmark price of East - China calcium - carbide PVC was 4730(+0) yuan/ton. With short - term inventory reduction due to maintenance and long - term pressure from new capacity, weak domestic demand, and potential export decline, it is expected to be under pressure [27]. - **Caustic Soda**: On May 29, the price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2750(+0) yuan/ton. With supply and demand increasing in late May and potentially weakening in June, the spot price may peak, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [27]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as SC (M1 - M2) at - 7 with a change of - 12, and WTI (M1 - M2) at 0.69 with a change of 0.05 [29]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, the basis of asphalt is 126 with a change of - 33, and the warehouse receipt is 91510 [30]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are various inter - variety spread values and changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA at - 3 with a change of - 4 [31]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report mentions the monitoring of methanol, urea, styrene, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle chips, asphalt, crude oil, LPG, fuel oil, LLDPE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda, but specific data details are not fully presented [32][44][56]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-5-30 关税环境再⽣变数，关注棉花需求变化 油脂 ：震荡分化，棕油偏强 蛋⽩粕：油厂开机率持续走高，双粕上行空间预计受限 ⽟⽶/淀粉：空头减仓，盘面上行 ⽣猪：去库预期带动，生猪盘面反弹 橡㬵：仓单继续注销，NR强势反弹 合成橡㬵：超跌反弹，盘面等待新的驱动 纸浆：俄针修正价差，纸浆期货借势大涨 棉花：关税环境再生变数，关注需求变化 ⽩糖：糖价震荡收跌 原⽊：基本面未改善，反弹空间或有限 ⻛险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 棉花：关税环境再⽣变数，关注需求变化 逻辑：需求端，5月份纺纱厂开机率维稳，纱厂成品库存不高，但6月一 般为消费淡季，后续或存在成品累库和降开机的可能，关注需求边际变 化。库存端，当前棉花商业库存低于近五年同期均值水平，5月上半月棉 花商业库存去化速度依旧较快，后续库存存在偏紧预期。新棉种植方 面，今年新疆棉花种植面积预计同比增加，因比价收益优势，其它农作 物改种棉花现象增多，当前产区天气整体尚可，棉花出苗情况较好， 后续若无极端天气，25/26年度新疆棉花产量或居高难下甚至 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 商品走势分化，化工板块集体拉升 ——中信期货晨报20250530 中信期货研究所 刘道钰 从业资格号F3061482 投资咨询号Z0016422 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 殷指 | 沪深300期货 | 3832 8 | 0.73% | -0.35W | 3.14% | -0.67% | -2.25% | | | 上证50期货 | 2673.6 | 0.314 | -0.724 | 2.47% | 0.29% | -0.16% | | | 中证500期货 | 5668.6 | 1 814 | 1924 | 3 2% | -2 59% | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-05-30 价格有企稳迹象，基本⾯变化有限 经过连续多⽇下跌后，昨⽇盘⾯有企稳迹象，其中铁矿探涨意愿较 强，双焦则延续跌势。产业供需层⾯没有变化，国内需求季节性⾛ 弱，⼯地需求受到⾬⽔天⽓影响施⼯进度放缓，出⼝悲观情绪加剧。 ⽬前电炉和部分⾼炉已开始亏损，铁⽔预期内回落，整体盈利率尚 可。对⽐去年情况来看，今年钢材库存压⼒不⼤且五⼤材维持去库， 海外矿⼭增量不明显，铁矿港⼝库存持续去化。综合来看，估值低位 带来反弹驱动，但⼒度偏弱。 ⿊⾊：价格有企稳迹象，基本⾯变化有限 经过连续多日下跌后，昨日盘面有企稳迹象，其中铁矿探涨意愿较 强，双焦则延续跌势。产业供需层面没有变化，国内需求季节性走 弱，工地需求受到雨水天气影响施工进度放缓，出口悲观情绪加剧。 目前电炉和部分高炉已开始亏损，铁水预期内回落，整体盈利率尚 可。对比去年情况来看，今年钢材库存压力不大且五大材维持去库， 海外矿山增量不明显，铁矿港口库存持续去化。综合来看，估值低位 带来反弹驱动，但力度偏弱。 1、铁元素方面，铁矿短期供给增量不明显，因海外新项目爬坡进度 不 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-5-29 美联储态度审慎，⾦价承压 价格逻辑： 黄金价格周三北美时段延续跌势，跌破3,300美元关键心理位，主因 美联储会议纪要释放滞胀风险信号，推动美债收益率反弹并提振美 元。尽管美联储维持利率不变，但政策制定者对关税推升通胀及就业 增长放缓的担忧加剧，暗示货币政策将保持谨慎。同时，地缘政治冲 突（俄乌、中东局势）虽支撑避险需求，但美国消费者信心数据超预 期改善，叠加美债收益率回升至4.493%，削弱了黄金吸引力。 美联储5月会议纪要显示，官员因关税对经济的不确定性及潜在" 滞胀"压力（高通胀与弱增长并存）而选择观望，强调需等待政府政 策调整效果明朗。值得注意的是，此次会议早于特朗普政府将对华关 税从145%降至30%的决定。经济数据方面，美国10年期实际收益率升 至2.171%，美元指数上涨0.33%至99.89，进一步施压金价。此外， 瑞士4月自美黄金进口创2012年以来新高，中国香港4月黄金净进口同 比翻倍。市场预计美联储年内或降息45个基点，但当前强劲数据与政 策谨慎基调令短期金价承压。 展望：周度COMEX黄金 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-05-29 新能源金属供需弱改善，但过剩预期继续驱 动价格大跌 新能源观点：新能源⾦属供需弱改善，但过剩预期继续驱动价格⼤跌 交易逻辑：价格跌跌不休引发供应持续小幅收缩，供需弱改善。但供 需过剩预期驱动价格进一步恐慌性杀跌，当前价格临近重要敏感成本 支撑区域。中短期来看，新能源金属价格走势偏弱，但逐步临近重要 敏感成本区域，仍需谨防价格双边波动风险；中长期来看，低价或有 望进一步加快国内自主定价品种的产能出清，比如：多晶硅和工业硅 等。 李苏横 从业资格号：F03093505 投资咨询号：Z0017197 郑非凡 从业资格号：F03088415 投资咨询号：Z0016667 白帅 从业资格号：F03093201 投资咨询号：Z0020543 杨飞 从业资格号：F03108013 投资咨询号：Z0021455 ⼯业硅观点：供应压⼒加剧，硅价持续承压。 多晶硅观点：多空博弈加剧，多晶硅价格宽幅波动。 碳酸锂观点：仓单库存去化，碳酸锂⽉差收窄。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not explicitly provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The chemical industry as a whole is in a weak pattern, closely related to the downturn of the cost - end. The instability of crude oil and the decline of coal prices lead to a downward shift in the costs of oil - based and coal - based chemicals. The polyester chain, previously boosted by trade easing, shows signs of weakness due to the cooperative production cuts of filament enterprises [1][2]. - Energy - end weakness drags down chemical product prices. The market needs to see an improvement in demand; otherwise, it will enter a weaker pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On May 28, the SC2507 contract closed at 453 yuan/barrel with a change of - 1.16%, and the Brent2508 contract closed at $64.33/barrel with a change of 0.93%. - The OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries decided to maintain the overall crude oil production target until the end of December 2026. The US sanctions policy on Russia and Iran has high uncertainty. Libya's eastern government may declare force majeure on oil fields and ports. - Short - term macro and geopolitical factors are favorable, but the OPEC+ accelerated production increase limits the rebound space. It is expected to fluctuate [4][5]. 3.1.2 LPG - On May 28, 2025, the PG 2507 contract closed at 4097 yuan/ton with a change of + 0.17%. - There are signs of recovery in the profits of downstream plants in Shandong. The demand for civil gas and chemical use has increased, but the overall demand is still weak. There are multiple PDH plants scheduled to resume production from late May to early June. It is expected to have a short - term recovery but with limited upward space, so it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. 3.1.3 Asphalt - The main asphalt futures closed at 3526 yuan/ton. The spot prices in East China, Northeast, and Shandong were 3580 yuan/ton, 3900 yuan/ton, and 3625 yuan/ton respectively. - The sharp rise in US Treasury yields, tariff conflicts, and OPEC+ over - production are expected to put pressure on asphalt prices. The supply of domestic asphalt raw materials is sufficient, and refinery operations have increased. The demand side shows that asphalt is still over - valued. It is expected that the asphalt price is over - valued and waiting to fall [6]. 3.1.4 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3037 yuan/ton. - Factors such as the sharp rise in US Treasury yields, OPEC+ over - production, increased import tariffs, and reduced demand for power generation will put pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil prices. It is expected that the supply will increase and the demand will decrease, and it will fluctuate weakly [7][8]. 3.1.5 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3530 yuan/ton. - It follows the fluctuation of crude oil. Currently, the supply and demand are both weak. It is expected to face an increase in supply and a decline in demand, and will maintain a low - value operation, following the crude oil fluctuation [8][9]. 3.1.6 PX - On May 28, the PX CFR China Taiwan price was $836(-4)/ton, and the PX 2509 contract closed at 6590(-116) yuan/ton. - In the short term, crude oil is fluctuating weakly due to the OPEC+ production increase policy, squeezing the cost momentum of PX. In terms of supply - demand pattern, the PX processing fee has recovered rapidly, and the impact of plant maintenance on PX has weakened. It is expected that the PX price will continue to consolidate [11]. 3.1.7 PTA - On May 28, the PTA spot price was 4867(-8) yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee was 329(+16) yuan/ton. - The previous maintenance plants are restarting, while the downstream polyester manufacturers may increase production cuts. The PTA inventory reduction speed will slow down, and the polyester industry chain profit may decline. It is expected that the PTA market will continue to be under pressure for adjustment [11]. 3.1.8 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - On May 28, the ethylene glycol price declined. The market was concerned about the further reduction of polyester load. - The decline on the 28th was mainly due to the decline in coal prices and the reduction of polyester filament production. The cost of EG has decreased, and the demand has declined. It is expected that the price will not trend downwards, and investors should view it with a fluctuating mindset [13]. 3.1.9 Short - Fiber - On May 28, the long - filament manufacturers announced an additional 4% production cut, and the PF futures fluctuated lower. - The short - fiber export volume in May may remain at a relatively high level, and the hidden inventory is low. However, there is still great uncertainty about future demand. It is expected that the short - fiber processing fee has limited compression space and will continue to fluctuate strongly [14][15]. 3.1.10 Bottle Chip - On May 28, the polyester raw material futures prices declined, and the polyester bottle chip factory quotes were mostly stable with partial slight decreases. - PTA and EG were dragged down by the long - filament production cuts, and the bottle chips followed the decline. The processing fee of bottle chips will be supported between 300 - 400 yuan/ton, and the absolute price will follow the raw materials and continue to fluctuate [17]. 3.1.11 Methanol - On May 28, the methanol spot price in Taicang was 2230 yuan/ton. The port inventory is gradually entering the accumulation cycle, and the inland price is temporarily stable. - Some Iranian plants are expected to restart this week. The coal price has stabilized slightly after the decline, and the methanol production profit is still relatively high. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [19][20]. 3.1.12 Urea - On May 28, 2025, the urea factory - warehouse and market low - end prices were 1810(+0) and 1860(+10) respectively, and the main contract closed at 1790 yuan/ton with a change of - 1.32%. - The daily urea production has increased, the agricultural demand is in a short - term gap, and the industrial demand is weak. The export is expected to start in June at the earliest. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is expected that the urea futures will fluctuate weakly [20]. 3.1.13 Plastic (LLDPE) - On May 28, the LLDPE spot mainstream price was 7100(-50) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 128(-15) yuan/ton. - The oil price is expected to have a downward space, the coal price has stabilized slightly, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the plastic's own fundamental pressure still exists. It is expected that the LLDPE 09 contract will fluctuate weakly in the short term [22]. 3.1.14 PP - On May 28, the mainstream transaction price of East China拉丝 was 7000(-20) yuan/ton, and the PP main contract basis was 107(-17) yuan/ton. - The oil price is expected to decline, the coal price has stabilized slightly, the short - term maintenance has increased slightly, the downstream demand is still weak, and the supply growth rate is high. It is expected to decline due to supply - demand inertia and wait for a stop - falling signal, with a short - term weak fluctuation [22]. 3.1.15 PVC - The East China calcium carbide - based PVC benchmark price was 4730(-40) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was - 28(+5) yuan/ton. - There are many PVC maintenance plans from May to June, and the inventory is being reduced. However, in the long - term, new production capacity will be put into operation, the domestic demand is in the off - season, and the export is expected to weaken. The cost center of PVC is moving down, and the market is under pressure [24]. 3.1.16 Caustic Soda - The 32% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2750(+0) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 301(+10) yuan/ton. - The supply and demand increased in late May, but there will be many maintenance plans in June, and the supply and demand may be weak. The spot price has reached the peak, and the future supply is expected to be pessimistic. It is expected to fluctuate widely [24]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as SC, WTI, Brent, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [25]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [26]. - **Inter - Variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different categories such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [27]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Data on the basis and spreads of various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. are provided, but specific data details are not fully presented in the given text [28][40][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Maintain the view of more hedging and more volatility overseas, and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets [6]. - Overseas, the inflation expectation structure in the US is stable, and the short - term fundamentals remain resilient. The fiscal impact on short - term sentiment is expected to improve in the next 2 - 3 weeks. In July - September, under the "dual uncertainty" of tariffs and fiscal policy, US stocks and bonds are likely to experience significant fluctuations. - In China, the pro - growth policies maintain their stance, and may still focus on making good use of existing resources. The export resilience and the window period of tariff relaxation support the economic growth rate in the second quarter. The bond market still has value for dip - buying after the capital pressure eases. The stock market and commodities return to the fundamental logic, showing a short - term range - bound trend. It is recommended to focus on the low - valuation and policy - driven logic [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - **Overseas Macro**: Tariff and US debt concerns are the two main lines of market fluctuations in May. The EU requested to extend the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, which was approved by US President Trump. The US House of Representatives passed a large - scale tax - cut and spending bill on May 22, planning to cut taxes by more than $4 trillion and reduce spending by at least $1.5 trillion in the next 10 years. The 20 - year US Treasury bond auction on May 22 was one of the worst in five years, increasing market concerns about the growth of US debt. US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1%, slightly exceeding expectations. The US manufacturing and service PMI in May both performed better than expected [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The domestic economic data in April showed resilience, and policy expectations were generally stable. On May 20, the China - ASEAN Economic and Trade Ministers' Special Meeting was held online, and the two sides announced the full completion of the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0. The People's Bank of China authorized the National Inter - bank Funding Center to announce that the 1 - year and over - 5 - year LPRs were both cut by 10BP in May 2025. At the same time, many state - owned banks such as China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China announced a cut in deposit interest rates, which was the first round of deposit interest rate cuts by state - owned banks this year. In terms of economic data, investment and consumption growth in April slowed down slightly but still showed resilience. In investment, the cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment from January to April was 4.0%, with an expected 4.3% and a previous value of 4.2%. In consumption, the year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods in April was 5.1%, with an expected 5.5% and a previous value of 5.9%; the seasonally adjusted month - on - month growth was 0.24%, with a low growth rate but still showing some growth [6]. - **Asset Views**: Overseas, maintain a view of more volatility for equity assets and be vigilant about market risk preferences. In China, the pro - growth policies maintain their stance. The bond market still has value for dip - buying after the capital pressure eases. The stock market and commodities return to the fundamental logic, showing a short - term range - bound trend [6]. 3.2 View Highlights - **Macro**: Overseas, the stagflation trading cools down, and the long - and short - term allocation ideas diverge. In China, there are moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end implements the established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [7]. - **Finance**: Stock index futures are waiting for a change in volume. Stock index options see enhanced hedging transactions. The bond market for treasury bond futures may still be volatile [7]. - **Precious Metals**: The risk preference rises, and precious metals are in short - term adjustment. The short - term adjustment of gold and silver continues due to the better - than - expected progress of Sino - US negotiations [7]. - **Shipping**: The sentiment declines. Pay attention to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June. The focus is on the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases for the container shipping route to Europe [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: As the off - season approaches, the molten iron output declines, but the ore price remains relatively firm. The demand for steel continues to weaken, and the futures and spot prices decline. The second - round price cut for coke has started, and coke enterprises have difficulty in shipping. The pressure on coking coal inventory reduction increases, and the market sentiment is low [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The inventory reduction generally slows down, and non - ferrous metals remain range - bound. The copper inventory continues to accumulate, and the copper price fluctuates at a high level. The alumina market is in high - level consolidation due to the undetermined revocation of mining licenses [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Sino - US tariffs have dropped significantly, and energy and chemical products are out of the doldrums. The expectation of oil production increase intensifies the pressure on oil prices. The demand for LPG continues to weaken. The asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil prices are overestimated and expected to fall [9]. - **Agriculture**: Sino - US negotiations have achieved substantial progress, and the sentiment is favorable for the cotton price rebound. The warehouse receipt game for rubber continues to ferment, and NR leads the commodity market. The raw materials for synthetic rubber remain weak, and the market is in horizontal consolidation [9].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-05-29 需求低迷，价格持续下⾏ ⿊⾊连续多⽇增仓下跌，贸易商恐慌情绪渐起跟随降价出售。从基本 ⾯看，国内需求季节性⾛弱，⼯地需求受到⾬⽔天⽓影响施⼯进度放 缓，出⼝悲观情绪加剧，"抢出⼝"似乎不及预期。⽬前电炉和部分 ⾼炉已开始亏损，铁⽔有回落预期，同时限产传闻进⼀步利空炉料。 不过对⽐去年情况来看，今年钢材库存压⼒不⼤，海外矿⼭增量不明 显，港⼝库存持续去化。综合来看，⽬前资⾦和预期主导盘⾯，但现 货库存对价格仍有⼀定⽀撑。 ⿊⾊：需求低迷，价格持续下⾏ 黑色连续多日增仓下跌，贸易商恐慌情绪渐起跟随降价出售。从基本 面看，国内需求季节性走弱，工地需求受到雨水天气影响施工进度放 缓，出口悲观情绪加剧，"抢出口"似乎不及预期。目前电炉和部分 高炉已开始亏损，铁水有回落预期，同时限产传闻进一步利空炉料。 不过对比去年情况来看，今年钢材库存压力不大，海外矿山增量不明 显，港口库存持续去化。综合来看，目前资金和预期主导盘面，但现 货库存对价格仍有一定支撑。 1、铁元素方面，铁矿短期供给增量不明显，因海外新项目爬坡进度 不及预 ...