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中国期货每日简报-20250722
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 12:34
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On July 21, equity index futures rose while CGB futures fell; most commodity futures gained, with metals and energy & chemicals sectors leading the gains [2][9][11]. - The top three gainers were aluminium oxide, coking coal, and glass, while the top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe), cotton, and Chinese jujube [9][10][11]. - The President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission will visit China and hold the 25th China - EU leaders' meeting; the July LPR quotation shows both 5 - year and 1 - year rates remain unchanged [2][32]. - As of mid - July this year, there have been 52 IPOs in Hong Kong, a year - on - year increase of 30%, with a total funds raised of HK$124 billion, a year - on - year rise of 590%, and the Hang Seng Index has risen by 25.3% cumulatively since the beginning of this year [33]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On July 21, equity index futures rose, CGB futures fell, and most commodity futures gained. The top gainers were aluminium oxide (8.4% increase, 5.3% month - on - month increase in positions), coking coal (7.9% increase, 5.1% month - on - month decrease in positions), and glass (7.1% increase, 18.3% month - on - month decrease in positions). The top decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (2.4% decrease, 0.4% month - on - month decrease in positions), cotton (0.8% decrease, 3.7% month - on - month decrease in positions), and Chinese jujube (0.7% decrease, 2.9% month - on - month increase in positions) [9][10][11]. 1.2 Daily Rise 1.2.1 Aluminum Oxide - On July 21, aluminum oxide increased by 8.4% to 3386 yuan/ton. Short - term squeeze risk and anti - involution sentiment drove up the futures. Operating capacity is gradually recovering, and inventories are accumulating. The impact of the new non - ferrous industry growth - stabilizing plan on the supply of the surplus aluminium oxide sector remains to be seen. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [15][16][17]. 1.2.2 Coking Coal - On July 21, coking coal increased by 7.9% to 1006 yuan/ton. Domestic coal mine recovery is slow, and Mongolian coal customs clearance is gradually picking up. With strong rigid demand and market sentiment, coking coal prices are prone to rise in the short term, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [20][21][22]. 1.2.3 Glass - On July 21, glass increased by 7.1% to 1173 yuan/ton. Demand is marginally weakening, supply pressure is expected to rise, and fundamentals are weak. With low mid - stream inventories, there is a risk of speculative pull on prices. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [25][26][27]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The President of the European Council Carlos Moedas and the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen will visit China on July 24. President Xi Jinping will meet with them, and Premier Li Qiang will co - chair the 25th China - EU leaders' meeting. The July LPR quotation shows that the over - 5 - year LPR is 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR is 3%, both unchanged from last month [32]. 2.2 Industry News - As of mid - July this year, there have been 52 IPOs in Hong Kong, a year - on - year increase of 30%, with a total funds raised of HK$124 billion, a year - on - year rise of 590%, ranking first globally temporarily. The Hang Seng Index has risen by 25.3% cumulatively since the beginning of this year. The SAR government will continue to improve the listing system, promote stock market liquidity, and attract more high - quality enterprises to list in Hong Kong [33].
中信期货晨报:国内商品期货多数上涨,基本金属涨幅居前-20250722
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 12:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas fundamentals are relatively stable, but the nomination of the new Fed Chair is affecting interest - rate cut expectations. The US tariff policies may be finalized in early August. Domestically, the Q2 economic data shows resilience, and there are expectations for policy games at the end of the month. Domestic assets present structural opportunities, and long - term weak dollar trend continues. Strategic allocation to resources like gold and copper is recommended [6]. - For various asset classes, most are in a state of volatility, with some showing upward or downward trends based on different market logics such as policy expectations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Summary - **Overseas Macro**: US consumer confidence recovered in June, driving a slight rebound in CPI and retail sales. The new Fed Chair nomination is expected between October - December 2025, and US tariff policies may be finalized on August 1st and 12th [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's Q2 GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year, and June's export value increased 5.8% year - on - year, better than expected. High - frequency data shows an improvement in infrastructure investment. There are expectations for domestic demand - boosting policies, and current stable - growth policies focus on using existing resources, with a higher probability of incremental policies in Q4 [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets offer structural opportunities. Overseas, factors like tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks should be monitored. A long - term weak dollar trend is expected, and strategic allocation to resources such as gold and copper is advisable [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - **Domestic**: Moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and short - term implementation of fiscal policies [7]. - **Overseas**: Inflation expectation structure flattens, economic growth expectations improve, and stagflation trading cools down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Positive expectations of "anti - involution" policies are hard to disprove, but there is a lack of incremental funds, resulting in a volatile market [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: Market sentiment fluctuates, with selling options dominating, and deteriorating option liquidity leads to a volatile market [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond yield curve continues to steepen, and factors like unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing may affect the market, which is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold and silver continue to adjust, and factors such as Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policies should be monitored, with a volatile market expected [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - For the container shipping route to Europe, there is a game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, and factors like tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies should be watched, with a volatile market expected [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Most products in this sector, including steel, iron ore, coke, etc., are expected to have a volatile and relatively strong performance due to factors such as cost support, production, and policy expectations [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Most non - ferrous metals are in a volatile state, with some like zinc and nickel expected to have a downward - trending or weak - trending volatility due to factors such as tariff policies, supply - demand relationships, and policy risks [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Due to OPEC+'s unexpected production increase, the energy and chemical sector is expected to be weakly volatile. Different products have different trends based on their supply - demand, cost, and other factors, such as crude oil expected to decline, and some products like ethylene glycol expected to rise [8]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Agricultural products show different trends. For example, palm oil leads the rise in oils, while corn and starch futures are expected to decline weakly, and most products are in a volatile state affected by factors such as weather, supply - demand, and trade policies [8].
反内卷炒作持续,生猪期价反弹
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 12:02
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report provides outlook ratings for various agricultural products, including: - Oils and fats: Expected to fluctuate [5] - Protein meal: Expected to fluctuate and rise [6] - Corn and starch: Expected to fluctuate [6][7] - Live pigs: Expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [2][7] - Natural rubber and 20 - number rubber: Expected to fluctuate [8][9] - Synthetic rubber: Expected to fluctuate [10][11] - Cotton: Expected to fluctuate [10][11] - Sugar: Expected to be volatile and slightly bearish in the long - term, and fluctuate in the short - term [12] - Pulp: Expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [13][14] - Logs: Expected to be volatile and slightly bearish [15] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the supply, demand, inventory, and market sentiment of various agricultural products. It points out that factors such as policies, trade relations, weather, and consumption demand have significant impacts on the prices of agricultural products. For example, the anti - involution policy in the live pig industry affects market sentiment, and the trade tension affects the price of protein meal [1][5][6]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Market sentiment is weakening, and the risk of a decline in the near future is increasing. - **Logic**: Concerns about high - temperature threats to US soybean growth, the impact of the Fed's policy expectations on the macro - environment, and the increase in palm oil production and inventory pressure in the industry are the main reasons. - **Outlook**: The market is facing a game of multiple factors, and there is a risk of a callback [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Driven by trade - tension concerns, the protein meal market is rising. - **Logic**: International soybean markets are facing a complex situation of multiple factors, while the domestic market is affected by supply pressure and trade - war concerns. - **Outlook**: The domestic protein meal market is stronger than the US market, and the basis is expected to be weak. Long - term prospects are bullish [6]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The macro - environment is favorable, and corn rebounds after over - decline. - **Logic**: The supply of corn is gradually tightening, but the demand is weak, and the market has digested previous positive factors. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there may be a phased rebound, but in the long - term, there is a downward pressure [6][7]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - **View**: The anti - involution hype continues, and live pig futures prices rebound. - **Logic**: The supply of live pigs is still high in the short, medium, and long - term, but the policy of adjusting production capacity brings positive expectations. The demand and inventory also affect the market. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, but the supply pressure in the third quarter is still large [1][7]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The bullish sentiment in the commodity market continues, and natural rubber reaches the 15,000 - yuan mark. - **Logic**: The overall commodity market sentiment is bullish, and the fundamentals of natural rubber are stable in the short - term. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it is easy to rise and difficult to fall, following the overall commodity sentiment [8][9]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The market is running strongly, but the hype is limited. - **Logic**: The news of the industrial policy stimulates the market sentiment, but the policy direction is unclear. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range [10][11]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: The 09 contract reduces positions and corrects. - **Logic**: The supply of cotton is expected to be loose, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is low in the short - term. - **Outlook**: Low inventory supports the price, but the upward resistance increases, and it may correct [10][11]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: There are negative factors at the import end, and the rebound height of sugar prices is limited. - **Logic**: The global sugar market supply is expected to be loose, and domestic imports are expected to increase. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, sugar prices are expected to decline, and in the short - term, they are expected to fluctuate [12]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: Pulp futures rise with the macro - environment, and it is recommended to go long. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is the main driving force, while the supply and demand are weak. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [13][14]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: With continuous delivery, logs increase positions and rise. - **Logic**: The spot market is affected by delivery and inventory, and the supply and demand are expected to be weak in the medium - term. - **Outlook**: The short - term is affected by macro - funds, and the long - term market demand is stable [15][16]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists various agricultural products for data monitoring, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data are not provided in the given text [18][37][50][107][120][135][154].
能源化策略:原油和化?的分化,期货与现货的分化,能化难有趋势?情
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 12:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical market is expected to experience volatile trends, with attention on policy variables and cost - side fluctuations. There is a divergence between crude oil and chemicals, as well as between futures and spot markets, making it difficult for the energy and chemical sector to have a clear - cut trend. [1][4] - Crude oil supply pressure persists, and geopolitical disturbances should be monitored. The strong reality of high refinery operations and the weak expectation of supply pressure are in a state of balance, leading to an oscillating oil price. [8] - Domestic chemical products have shown strong performance, especially coal and coal - chemical products with high self - sufficiency rates. However, the increase in chemical futures prices has not been followed by spot prices, and the basis of chemical products has weakened. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure remains, and geopolitical disturbances should be noted. The high refinery operations in domestic and foreign markets and the supply pressure are in a state of balance, resulting in an oscillating oil price. [8] - **LPG**: The support from the cost side is weakening, and the fundamental situation of ample supply remains unchanged. The PG futures may experience weak oscillations. [3] - **Asphalt**: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely over - valued stage. [3] - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil**: There is significant downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. [3] - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillating and weakening trend of crude oil. [3] - **Methanol**: The operating load in the inland region remains low, and methanol prices will oscillate. [3] - **Urea**: Supply is strong while demand is weak. Although sentiment is temporarily boosted and exports support the market, urea prices will oscillate in the short term. [3] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventories have decreased, and the expectation of inventory accumulation has been postponed. [3] - **PX**: The downward space is limited, and it will seek a direction during oscillations. [3] - **PTA**: The driving force is limited, and it is affected by cost and macro - sentiment disturbances. [3] - **Short - fiber**: There are limited industrial contradictions. [3] - **Bottle Chip**: The increase in polymerization cost supports the valuation. [3] - **PP**: The expectation of stable growth boosts the market, and PP prices will oscillate. [3] - **Plastic**: The expectation of stable growth in the petrochemical industry provides a slight boost, and plastic prices will oscillate. [3] - **Pure Benzene**: The improvement of the balance sheet and positive commodity sentiment are expected to lead to a weak rebound. [3] - **Styrene**: The stable - growth plan boosts the market, and styrene prices will rise. [3] - **PVC**: Market sentiment has warmed up again, and a cautious and optimistic attitude is recommended. [3] - **Caustic Soda**: There is a strong expectation but weak reality, and caustic soda prices will experience a weak rebound. [3] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.78 with a change of - 0.1, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread being 60 with a change of 8. [36] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities. For example, the basis of asphalt is 198 with a change of 33, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82300. [37] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads also show different values and changes, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 354 with a change of - 62. [39] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The content mainly lists various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in a summarized way in the provided text. [40][52][63]
“反内卷”驱动玻璃纯碱空单减仓大幅上涨
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 12:02
"Anti-involution" drives glass and soda ash surging with substantial short covering "反内卷"驱动玻璃纯碱空单减仓大幅上涨 Investment consulting business qualification: CSRC License [2012] No. 669 从业资格号 Qualification No: F03122523 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0019832 典 Yu Dian 余 2025/07/22 从业资格号 Qualification No: F03099559 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0020955 陶存辉 Tao Cunhui 从业资格号 Qualification No:F03100815 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0021807 薛 原 Xue Yuan 从业资格号 Qualification No: F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0013632 桂晨曦 Gui ChenXi Event 事件点评 ...
贵金属策略:降息预期升温,?价
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 12:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The strength of precious metals is mainly due to renewed concerns about the Fed's independence and clear interest rate cut signals from Fed officials. Gold has long - term bullish factors, but short - term market risk - on sentiment suppresses its upward momentum. Silver is expected to continue its strength based on the bullish outlook for gold [1][3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - The monthly rate of the US Conference Board Leading Index in June was - 0.3%, with an expected - 0.2% and a previous value revised from - 0.10% to 0% [2]. - Fed Chair Powell faced criminal charges from Trump's allies in the House. Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna accused Powell of perjury, stating he made false statements during a Senate testimony in June 2025 regarding the Fed building renovation and downplayed the cost increase from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion [2][3]. - Fed Governor Waller said waiting six more weeks to cut interest rates might be okay, but there's no reason to delay. He also mentioned that he would accept if the president nominated him as Fed Chair [2][3]. - Goolsbee said the latest CPI data showed that tariffs were pushing up commodity inflation, and he was "slightly worried." He expected a significant interest rate drop in the next year [2][6]. 3.2 Price Logic - On the evening of July 21, the gold price quickly rose to $3,400 per ounce, and silver rose 2%, approaching the $39 per ounce mark. The strength of precious metals is due to concerns about the Fed's independence and interest rate cut expectations [3]. - Regarding the Fed's independence, the criminal charges against Powell by Congresswoman Luna have raised concerns. Perjury can carry a maximum sentence of 5 years in prison [3]. - In terms of interest rate cut expectations, Waller's statement and Goolsbee's prediction of a significant rate drop in the next year have increased the market's interest rate cut expectations [3][6]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Currently, it is the third international public - good crisis since the Pax Britannica. In 2025, tariff, geopolitical, and monetary - system risks are similar to those in the last century. Gold, as a substitute for the existing monetary system, has long - term bullish factors, but short - term market sentiment restricts its upward movement. For silver, domestic anti - involution and infrastructure projects may boost its elasticity. Based on the bullish view of gold, silver is expected to remain strong [6]. - Pay attention to US real - estate data, Fed interest - rate expectations, and changes in trade frictions. The weekly COMEX gold price range to watch is [3250, 3450], and for COMEX silver, it is [36, 45] [6].
股指期货:温和上攻,股指期权:红利及小盘情绪上方空间更高
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 11:49
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - The risk appetite in the market has increased. The stock index futures are expected to rise moderately, the stock index options show more upside potential for dividend and small - cap sentiment, and the risk preference improvement suppresses the performance of the bond market [1]. - For stock index futures, the market rose moderately on Monday, with anti - involution trading as the main line. The bank sector has been falling recently, and the possibility of a shift to the scenario of "funds flowing into sectors with improved or reversed prosperity" is more likely. It is recommended to hold IM long positions [1][7]. - For stock index options, the trading volume decreased but remained highly liquid. Some sentiment indicators are at high levels. The dividend + small - cap dumbbell configuration has prominent value. It is recommended to use the dumbbell configuration idea to layout bull spreads and consider covered calls for other varieties [2][8][9]. - For treasury bond futures, they closed down across the board yesterday. The weak performance of the bond market may be due to the improvement of risk preference. It is necessary to be cautious about the bond market, especially the long - end bonds, and appropriate attention can be paid to long - end short - hedging operations [3][8][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Market Views Stock Index Futures - **View**: Moderate upward movement. The basis of IF, IH, IC, IM contracts changed, and the spread between current and next - month contracts also changed. The total positions of IF and IH decreased, while those of IC and IM increased. The market rose moderately on Monday, with anti - involution trading as the main line. The bank sector's decline may be due to the shift of funds. It is recommended to hold IM long positions [7]. Stock Index Options - **View**: Higher upside potential for dividend and small - cap sentiment. The trading volume decreased by 14.72% to 53.98 billion yuan but remained highly liquid. Some sentiment indicators are at high levels. The dividend + small - cap dumbbell configuration has prominent value. It is recommended to use the dumbbell configuration idea to layout bull spreads and consider covered calls for other varieties [2][8][9]. Treasury Bond Futures - **View**: Risk preference improvement suppresses the bond market performance. The trading volume and positions of T, TF, TS, TL contracts changed. The long - end TL performance was relatively weak. The bond market closed down across the board, and the 10Y and 30Y bond yields increased. The weak performance may be due to the improvement of risk preference. It is recommended to be cautious about the trend, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis, basis widening, and curve steepening [3][8][10]. (2) Economic Calendar - On July 21, 2025, China's 1 - year and 5 - year loan market quoted interest rates (LPR) remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50% respectively. China's June全社会 electricity consumption annual rate was 5.4%, higher than the previous value of 4.4% [11]. (3) Important Information and News Tracking - The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged. The State Council announced the "Housing Rental Regulations". Shangwei New Materials had 9 consecutive daily limit up, rising more than 410% [11]. (4) Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: Not detailed in the provided content [12]. - **Stock Index Options Data**: Not detailed in the provided content [16]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: Not detailed in the provided content [28].
【航运】数据报告:关税政策下运量及运力数据
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 11:44
【中信期货航运】关税政策下运量及运力数据 数据报告20250722 2025/7/22 | 研 | 工业与周期组 | | --- | --- | | 究 | 安婕锐 武嘉璐 | | | 从业资格号:F03100682 从业资格号:F03117373 | | 员 | 投资咨询号: Z0021085 投资咨询号:Z0022651 | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】669号 高频运力方面,第31周(至8月3日计划运力)美西航线运力环比继续回落5.2%。美西航线运力为32.6万TEU,同比上涨 5.7%;美东航线运力为23.6万TEU;环比上涨12.9%,同比上涨41.8%;中国一东南亚航线运力环比维持下跌5.4%,同比维持正增长 36. 9%仍处于高位。中国-欧洲航线运力环比回落13.9%,同比回落9.4%,地中海航线运力高位环比回落8.5%,同比上涨29.3%。 发往美国裁货集装箱箱量数据方面,据彭博统计,近期中国发往美国载货集装箱船箱量维持回落,截至7月21日,本周发运 载货箱量达49.5万TEU,环比回落12.5%,数量达62艘,周度回落8.8%,近期发运运力规模维持震荡下行。 国内港口吞吐量上涨。 ...
有色:反内卷延伸到基本金属,乐观情绪驱动有色回升
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 11:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers mid - term outlooks for each metal, such as "oscillating" for copper, "wait - and - see or short - term trading" for alumina, "oscillating in the short - term and potentially shorting on highs in the long - term" for aluminum, etc. [7][9][13] 2. Report's Core View The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is optimistic due to the spread of the "anti - involution" concept. Although the US tariff game continues and the macro - economic situation is complex, policy stimulus expectations and supply disruptions support metal prices. In the short - to - medium term, there are structural investment opportunities, and in the long - term, there are opportunities to short on highs for some metals with excess supply. [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: The upcoming non - ferrous metals growth - stabilization plan will support copper prices. The new plan will lead to the orderly exit of backward copper production capacity. Supply constraints remain, and inventory is low, but demand is weakening marginally, and US copper tariffs are unfavorable. Copper is expected to oscillate. [7][8][9] - **Alumina**: With scarce warehouse receipts and high "anti - involution" sentiment, alumina hit the daily limit. In the short - term, it has a strong foundation, but attention should be paid to the recovery rate and volume of warehouse receipts and new supply disruptions. It is advisable to wait and see or engage in short - term trading. [9][11][12] - **Aluminum**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly. In the short - term, prices are expected to oscillate within a range, and in the long - term, there are concerns about consumption, with a tendency to short on highs. [12][13] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Supported by macro - sentiment and cost, the market is oscillating strongly. In the short - term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are oscillating at low levels, and there is room for an upward correction later, suitable for cross - variety arbitrage. [15] - **Zinc**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, zinc prices are short - term strong. However, in the long - term, supply is increasing while demand growth is limited, and prices are expected to be weakly oscillating. [16] - **Lead**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, lead prices are oscillating upward. As demand transitions from the off - season to the peak season, prices are expected to oscillate. [17][18][19] - **Nickel**: Due to non - ferrous metals supply - side reform, nickel prices are oscillating widely in the short - term. In the long - term, it is advisable to short on rebounds. [20][22][23] - **Stainless Steel**: Driven by the overall strength of the commodity sector, the stainless - steel market is rising. In the short - term, it may oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to inventory and cost changes. [24][25] - **Tin**: With a further decline in LME inventory, tin prices have strong bottom support. Although there is a basis for price increases, the upward momentum is not strong, and prices are expected to oscillate, with increased volatility possible in August. [25][26] 3.2行情监测 The report lists various metals including copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and tin under this section, but no specific monitoring content is provided in the given text. [28][42][55]
政府债发行追踪:2025年第29周
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 06:35
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 29th week of 2025, presenting data on the issuance and net financing of various types of bonds and their progress as of July 20, 2025 [4][7][12]. 3. Summary by Bond Type 3.1 Special - Purpose Bonds - This week, the issuance of new special - purpose bonds was 161.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 97.4 billion yuan [4]. - As of July 20, the issuance progress of new special - purpose bonds was 54.3% [4]. - As of July 20, the cumulative issuance of new special - purpose bonds in July was 228.3 billion yuan [5]. 3.2 General Bonds - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 27.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 13.1 billion yuan [7]. - As of July 20, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 61.8% [9]. - As of July 20, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in July was 42.1 billion yuan [5]. 3.3 Local Government Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local government bonds was 152.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 45.1 billion yuan [12]. - As of July 20, the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 55.4% [12]. 3.4 Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 58.2 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 135 billion yuan [17]. - As of July 20, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 57.1% [18]. 3.5 Government Bonds - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 211.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 89.8 billion yuan [21]. - As of July 20, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local government bond issuance was 56.4% [21].