双焦周度数据 2025年05月30日 研究员: | 美典 | 陶存辉 | 张真 | 薛原 | 冉宇蒙 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号 F03122523 | 从业资格号 F03099559 | 从业资格号 F03106996 | 从业资格号 F03100815 | 从业资格号 F03144159 | | 投资咨询号 Z0019832 | 投资咨询号 Z0020955 | 投资咨询号 Z0021418 | 投资咨询号 Z0021807 | 投资咨询号 Z0022199 | | 图表 2: 焦炭周度数据 | | | | | | सेक्स | 指标 | 2025-05-23 | 2025-05-30 | 现 | | 247家钢厂 | 日均铁水产量 | 243.6 | 241. 91 | -1. 69 | | | 产量 | 47.29 | 47. 34 | 0.05 | | | 库存 | 660. 59 | 654. 93 | -5. 66 | | | 库存可用天数 | 11.89 | 11. 71 | -0. 18 | | 全样本独立焦企 | 产量 | 67.3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost provides weak support, leading to a rebound in new energy metal prices. New energy metal prices have been falling, with a slight and temporary contraction in supply. The stabilization of domestic energy prices offers weak cost support, but the supply - demand situation has not significantly improved, and the oversupply pattern continues. To reverse the current decline, a significant contraction in supply is needed. In the short and medium term, the price trend of new energy metals is weak, and cautious participation is advisable. Long - term low prices may accelerate the elimination of production capacity of domestically self - priced varieties [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1.行情观点 Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: During the wet season, supply increases while demand is weak, causing silicon prices to fluctuate under pressure. As of June 4, the price of oxygen - passing 553 in East China was 8150 yuan/ton, and 421 was 8850 yuan/ton. Domestic inventory was 420,900 tons, a 0.4% month - on - month increase. In May 2025, domestic industrial silicon monthly output was 308,000 tons, a 2.3% month - on - month increase and a 24.6% year - on - year decrease. In April, industrial silicon exports were 60,509 tons, a 1.6% month - on - month increase and a 9.2% year - on - year decrease [5]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, large northern factories are gradually resuming production, and supply in the northwest is increasing. In June, the southwest enters the wet season, with the operating rate in Sichuan having already rebounded, and Yunnan's operating rate expected to follow. On the demand side, downstream demand remains weak. Polysilicon factories continue to cut production, and the demand for industrial silicon is still low. The organic silicon industry's operating rate has slightly recovered, and subsequent demand is expected to remain stable. Aluminum alloy has limited impact on industrial silicon demand. Inventory continues to accumulate, but futures prices have fallen rapidly, leading to a reduction in warehouse receipt inventory [5]. - **Outlook**: The current pace of silicon factory复产 in the northwest has slowed, but there is still potential for further复产. In June, production in Sichuan and Yunnan will increase. Under high supply pressure, inventory will continue to accumulate, and silicon prices will remain under pressure, but short - term small rebounds are possible. Silicon prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The number of warehouse receipt registrations has increased, causing polysilicon prices to fluctuate widely. The成交 price range of N - type re -投料 was 36,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 37,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. In April, China's polysilicon exports were about 1,262.3 tons, a 37% month - on - month decrease, and imports were about 954.3 tons, a 67.2% month - on - month decrease [5]. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the speed of polysilicon warehouse receipt registration has accelerated. There is significant uncertainty about polysilicon复产 during the wet season, and it is expected that large - scale factory production capacity will be replaced, greatly alleviating supply pressure. Most silicon material factories are still in a loss state, and polysilicon production is currently at a low level. After the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period, downstream product prices such as components have begun to decline, and there is a risk of weakening demand in the second half of the year [5]. - **Outlook**: The short - term low production of polysilicon has improved the supply - demand situation, but there is a risk of weakening demand in the second half of the year. Polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate widely [5]. Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment is strong, and lithium carbonate prices are rising following the trend. On June 4, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.9% to 61,080 yuan. The total position of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 7,135 lots to 57,874 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan to 60,250 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade price decreased by 50 yuan to 58,650 yuan/ton [6]. - **Main Logic**: The current fundamentals are still loose, but inventory has marginally improved, and the price difference structure has strengthened. Weekly production increased by 487 tons to 16,600 tons. From January to May, domestic cathode materials maintained growth. In June, the off - season production schedule increased slightly more than expected. Social inventory has slightly decreased, and warehouse receipt inventory has also decreased recently. Ore prices are still falling, but have not reached the marginal cost of Australian mines, and no mine production cuts have been observed [7]. - **Outlook**: Demand is weak, and supply is high. Prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The market focuses on local large - consumption hotspots. The Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly on Wednesday, but the trading volume was hard to expand effectively, lacking a sustainable main line. The big - consumption sector was active, but the trading volume limited the market's upside. With potential tariff event fluctuations, it's recommended to maintain an empty - position and wait and see [2][8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The volatility reduction continues, and it's advisable to be cautious with the covered strategy. The underlying market rose across the board, but the options market turnover was lackluster. The positions of some varieties changed significantly, and the volatility of each variety continued to decline. The overall market sentiment was somewhat inconsistent with the underlying market, and the covered strategy should be continued for now [3][8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures rose collectively. The central bank's reverse - repurchase led to a net withdrawal of 600 million yuan, and the capital market remained loose. The market was affected by tariff events and expectations of central - bank operations. In the short term, the long - end bonds are expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation [4][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 行情观点 - **Stock Index Futures**: IF, IH, IC, and IM had changes in basis, inter - period spreads, and positions. The market focused on large - consumption stocks in Hong Kong, but faced challenges such as limited trading volume and potential tariff impacts. The recommended operation is to wait and see [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The underlying market rose, with the CSI 1000 up 0.88%. The options market turnover decreased by 7.67% to 2.814 billion yuan. Some varieties' positions reached short - term highs, and the MO volatility index dropped to around 21%. The covered strategy should be continued [3][8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The trading volume, positions, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL had corresponding changes. The central bank's reverse - repurchase led to a net withdrawal of 600 million yuan. The T contract was affected by tariff events and stock - market movements. The recommended strategies include maintaining an oscillating trend, paying attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, watching for basis widening, and steepening the yield curve in the medium term [8][9]. 经济日历 - Economic data such as the EU's April unemployment rate, May CPI, and core CPI, as well as the US's May ADP employment data are presented, along with predicted and actual values where available [10]. 重要信息资讯跟踪 - In 2025, 25,000 urban old - community renovation projects are planned nationwide, with 5,679 started from January to April. Six regions have a start - up rate of over 50%. - The SCO member states' finance ministers and central bank governors' meeting discussed economic and financial issues and supported actions to deepen regional financial cooperation. - The estimated wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in May were 12.4 million, a 38% year - on - year increase and a 9% month - on - month increase. The cumulative wholesale from January to May was estimated at 52.2 million, a 41% year - on - year increase [11]. 衍生品市场监测 - **Stock Index Futures Data**: The report does not provide specific data details. - **Stock Index Options Data**: The report does not provide specific data details. - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: The report does not provide specific data details.

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-06-05 成品油开始累库，原油或将拖累化⼯进 ⼊偏弱格局 欧美的贸易和谈以及美伊之间的冲突对油价形成支撑，加拿大减产一 度造成WTI强于Brent。6月4日加拿大一运营商开始重启一处因大火关停的 原油生产，后期如果天气合适，加拿大约50万桶/日的原油生产将陆续重 启。EIA发布周报，成品油终于开始出现较大的累库，这表明炼厂开工提 升已经临近尾声，原油的直接需求增量可能临近尾声。 板块逻辑： 化工市场仍处于无主线阶段。焦煤在6月4日日盘大幅反弹7%，对甲醇及 其下游的聚烯烃又拉升作用，聚烯烃自身产业链变化较小，产量同比依旧 有10%以上的增速。聚酯链略显平淡，博弈较大，短纤开始减产减合约， 短纤的加工费立即得到部分修复。市场最大的担忧是后期需求会在抢出口 结束后出现失速，能化品延续震荡整理格局。 原油：美国成品大幅累库，供应压力仍在 LPG：需求仍弱势，PG反弹空间或有限 沥青：沥青期价高估等待回落 高硫燃油：高硫燃油期价如期回落 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价跟随原油震荡 甲醇：煤炭小幅提振，甲醇震荡 尿素：盘面偏弱，等待农需 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - In the stock index futures market, tariff fluctuations have resurfaced, and the trading of micro - cap stocks is becoming more crowded. The market lacks a clear main line, and it is recommended to maintain an empty position and wait and see [1][6]. - In the stock index options market, the sentiment direction is unclear. The current covered - call strategy can still be the main position, but attention should be paid to tail risks [2][6]. - In the treasury bond futures market, the bond market sentiment is weak. In the short term, the bond market lacks a clear direction, and the long - end is expected to oscillate with caution [2][7][8]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Current Situation**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and closed higher with the trading volume remaining flat. During the Dragon Boat Festival, tariff issues resurfaced. Trump announced on May 30 that the import steel tariff would be raised from 25% to 50% starting from June 4, causing the A - share market to open lower after the holiday. The adjustment of index components led to the inflow of incremental funds into rural commercial banks, and the bank sector led the rise. The micro - cap stock index reached a new high, and the trading congestion continued to increase [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain an empty position and wait and see [6]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Current Situation**: The underlying market generally rose yesterday, with only the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 ETF and Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF slightly falling. The option market turnover decreased by 11.62% compared with the last trading day before the holiday. Indicators of each variety are neutral, and the trading and position - holding structures have small daily changes. The skewness of each variety remains at a high level, and the pricing of out - of - the - money puts is relatively high. Volatility has generally declined and is at the lowest level since the September 2024 market [2][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold the covered - call strategy [6]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Current Situation**: Yesterday, the central bank's reverse repurchase resulted in a net withdrawal of 37.55 billion yuan. Although the funds at the beginning of the month were generally loose and the fund interest rate declined, the T main contract oscillated weakly. The May Caixin Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, lower than the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.4, but its impact on the market was limited. The possible phone call between the Chinese and US presidents this week has attracted market attention, and the trading volume of treasury bond futures has declined. The stock - bond seesaw effect is also obvious [2][7][8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend strategies, maintain the view of oscillation; for hedging strategies, pay attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels; for basis strategies, appropriately pay attention to basis widening; for curve strategies, the odds of steepening the curve in the medium term are higher [8]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - Provides economic data such as the unemployment rate, CPI, and GDP of the Eurozone, as well as employment data in the US for the current week, including previous values, predicted values, and some announced values [9]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments are organizing the 2025 new - energy vehicle campaign in rural areas, aiming to promote new - energy vehicles in rural areas and integrate with related pilot projects [10]. - During the Dragon Boat Festival from May 31 to June 2, the cross - regional population mobility was 653.7 million person - times, with a daily average of 217.9 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [10]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The content only mentions the headings of stock index futures data, stock index options data, and treasury bond futures data, but specific data is not provided [11][15][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual varieties, the mid - term outlooks for industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate are all "oscillating" [5]. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of new energy metals is that supply and demand are weak, and prices will maintain a weak trend. In the short - to - medium term, prices are weak, and cautious participation is advisable. For long - term, low prices may accelerate the capacity clearance of domestically self - priced varieties [1]. - Industrial silicon: During the wet season, supply increases while demand is weak, and silicon prices are under downward pressure [2][5]. - Polycrystalline silicon: The game between bulls and bears intensifies, and polycrystalline silicon prices fluctuate widely [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate: The support of ore prices continues to decline, and lithium prices are under pressure [2][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - **Current prices**: As of June 3, according to SMM data, the price of oxygen - passing 553 in East China is 8,200 yuan/ton, and 421 in East China is 8,850 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inventory situation**: According to Baichuan data, the domestic inventory is 420,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%; market inventory is 169,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%; factory inventory is 251,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% [5]. - **Production and export**: In May 2025, the domestic monthly production of industrial silicon was 308,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%; from January to May, the cumulative production was 1.544 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. In April, the export volume of industrial silicon was 60,509 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative export volume was 216,730 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5% [5]. - **Photovoltaic installation**: In April, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 45.2GW, a month - on - month increase of 123.4% and a year - on - year increase of 214.7%; from January to April, the cumulative newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 104.9GW, a year - on - year increase of 74.6% [5]. - **Main logic**: On the supply side, large northern factories are gradually resuming production, and supply in the northwest is rising. In June, the southwest enters the wet season, and the operating rate in Sichuan has risen first, followed by Yunnan. On the demand side, downstream demand remains weak. Polysilicon factories continue to cut production, and demand for industrial silicon is still weak. The organic silicon industry has a slight recovery, and subsequent demand is expected to remain stable. The demand for industrial silicon from the aluminum alloy industry has limited impact. Inventory continues to accumulate, but futures prices have fallen rapidly, and warehouse receipt inventory has decreased [5]. - **Outlook**: The resumption of production in northwest silicon factories has slowed down, but there is still a possibility of further resumption. In June, production in Sichuan and Yunnan will increase. Under high supply pressure, inventory will continue to accumulate. Silicon prices are expected to oscillate [5]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Price and trade data**: According to the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of N - type re - feedstock is 36,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 37,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.85%. In April, China's polycrystalline silicon export volume was about 1,262.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37% and a year - on - year decrease of 36.2%. The import volume was about 954.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,951.7 tons (a decrease of 67.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 2,713.9 tons (a decrease of 73.98%) [5]. - **Photovoltaic installation**: From January to April 2025, the newly - added domestic photovoltaic installed capacity was 104.93GW, a year - on - year increase of 74.56%. In 2024, the cumulative newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity from January to December was 278GW, a year - on - year increase of 28% [5]. - **Industry news**: The photovoltaic silicon material sector holds a "meeting" monthly to discuss production cuts. Leading silicon material enterprises intend to jointly promote capacity integration but still need to discuss implementation [5]. - **Warehouse receipt situation**: The latest number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 1,570 lots, an increase of 1,100 lots compared to the previous value [5]. - **Main logic**: The registration speed of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts has accelerated recently, and there is great uncertainty about the resumption of production during the wet season. It is expected that large - scale production capacity will be replaced, and supply pressure will be greatly alleviated. Under the influence of both positive and negative news, price fluctuations have increased. On the supply side, most silicon material factories are still in a loss state, and production is currently at a low level. In April, production was below 100,000 tons, a significant decline compared to the beginning of 2024. It is expected that low production will continue in May 2025. On the demand side, after the end of the photovoltaic rush - to - install period, the prices of downstream photovoltaic products such as components have begun to decline, and there is a risk of weakening demand for polycrystalline silicon in the second half of the year [5][6]. - **Outlook**: The short - term low production of polycrystalline silicon has improved supply and demand, but there is a risk of weakening demand in the second half of the year. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [5][7]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and trading data**: On June 3, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 0.23% to 59,940 yuan; the total open interest of lithium carbonate contracts increased by 12,174 lots to 585,875 lots. The spot price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 400 yuan to 60,300 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 400 yuan to 58,700 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) on Flush decreased by 12 US dollars to 608 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 58,500 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. On that day, the warehouse receipts decreased by 60 tons to 33,397 tons [7]. - **Industry news**: Bolivia's lithium mining development plan for the Uyuni Salt Flats has suffered a major setback. The local court has suspended two large - scale lithium mining agreements with China and Russia, with a total value of over 2 billion US dollars and a planned annual production capacity of 35,000 tons of lithium carbonate [7]. - **Main logic**: The fundamentals are still relatively loose, but inventory has marginally improved, and the price difference structure has strengthened. On the supply side, weekly production increased by 487 tons to 16,600 tons. On the demand side, domestic cathode materials maintained growth from January to May but at a slower pace. June is a demand off - season, and demand is expected to be flat compared to the previous month, better than the same period last year. Social inventory decreased slightly by 208 tons in a single week, and warehouse receipt inventory has also decreased recently. Ore prices are still falling, but they have not reached the marginal cost of Australian mines, and no mine production cuts have been seen. In the future, cost support will continue to be tested, and lithium carbonate prices will be further pushed down. With the expectation of weakening demand and increasing supply, social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and prices will be under pressure. In the short term, the monthly spread has strengthened, and warehouse receipts have continuously decreased. Attention should be paid to mine production cut news, and opportunities for short - selling on rebounds or reverse spreads should be monitored [7]. - **Outlook**: Demand is weak, and supply is at a high level. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Oscillating [6] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [6] - Scrap Steel: Oscillating [7] - Coke: Oscillating Weakly [7] - Coking Coal: Oscillating Weakly [10] - Glass: Oscillating Weakly [11] - Soda Ash: Oscillating Weakly [11] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [13] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [14] Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the Dragon Boat Festival, the macro - sentiment was weak, and the US further imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, causing the prices of black building materials to decline. However, the actual impact of tariffs was limited, and there were rumors of Mongolia increasing resource taxes, leading to a price rebound at night. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the manufacturing's rush for exports is less than expected. Although some electric furnaces and blast furnaces are in the red, the overall profitability provides cost support. Low valuations drive price rebounds, but the upside is limited [1][2]. - In terms of iron elements, the overseas supply increase is lower than expected, and the annual cumulative shipment is down year - on - year. The new projects' progress is slow, and the annual increase is revised down. Steel enterprises' profitability and orders are good, and the molten iron output is expected to remain high. Before September, the inventory accumulation pressure is small, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [2]. - For carbon elements, the coking coal production remains high, and the Mongolian coal port clearance is also at a high level, resulting in a loose supply. The coke production is at a high level, but coke enterprises face inventory reduction pressure, and the coking profit is shrinking. The coking coal inventory pressure upstream is increasing, and it's difficult to find price support [2]. - Regarding alloys, the arrival of South32 Australian ore at the port increases the pressure on oxidized ore spot. The ban on manganese ore exports by Gabon has no obvious impact on the domestic market. With the recovery of manganese ore shipments, the port inventory is rising, and the cost drag persists. The ferrosilicon supply increases slightly, and the downstream is eager to reduce inventory. The glass demand decline in the off - season is not obvious, and the supply - side news can cause market fluctuations. The soda ash supply surplus pattern remains unchanged [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Core Logic: The overseas supply increase is lower than expected, and the annual cumulative shipment is down year - on - year. New projects' progress is slow, and the annual increase is revised down. Steel enterprises' profitability and orders are good, and the molten iron output is expected to remain high, so the annual molten iron output is expected to be higher than last year. Before September, the inventory accumulation pressure is small, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The black sector rebounded last night, and iron ore also rose slightly [2][6]. - Outlook: The US tariff policy has limited actual negative impact on iron ore, but may cause pessimistic sentiment. Considering the uncertain policies, the tight supply - demand balance, and the fact that the price has factored in many negative factors, the room for further significant decline is limited [6]. Steel - Core Logic: The domestic policy is in a vacuum, and there are still tariff risks. The demand for the five major steel products rebounded this week, but the domestic demand outlook is weak. The molten iron output is high, and the steel production has increased. Although the supply - demand fundamentals improved this week and the inventory decreased, the falling raw material prices and pessimistic demand expectations suppress the price [6]. - Outlook: The fundamentals improved this week, but the outlook is still pessimistic, and the raw material prices are weakening. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The post - holiday scrap steel arrival was low, and the loss during off - peak electricity hours increased. The apparent demand for rebar rebounded slightly, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The supply was tight after the holiday, and the demand from electric furnaces and blast furnaces was affected. The inventory increased slightly [7]. - Outlook: The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, the finished product price is under pressure, and the electric furnace loss is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [7]. Coke - Core Logic: The second round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the market is pessimistic. The supply is stable, but the demand is weakening as the molten iron output declines and the off - season approaches [7][9]. - Outlook: The falling coking coal price weakens the cost support, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [9]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: The market trading atmosphere is weak, and coal mines face shipment pressure. The supply is still loose as the production remains high and the Mongolian coal port clearance is high. The coke production is high, but coke enterprises face inventory reduction pressure, and the coking profit is shrinking. The upstream inventory pressure is increasing [10]. - Outlook: The market is pessimistic, the supply - demand is loose, and the high inventory suppresses the price. The price is expected to remain weak [10]. Glass - Core Logic: The off - season demand decline is not obvious, and the deep - processing demand improved month - on - month but is still weak year - on - year. There was cold - repair and复产, and the supply pressure remains. The inventory decreased slightly, and the market is sensitive to supply - side news [3][11]. - Outlook: The real - world demand faces pressure in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price cuts in Hubei [11]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. The supply pressure persists as some enterprises' production has recovered. The demand for heavy alkali is for rigid needs, and the increase in float glass daily melting is uncertain. The short - term inventory decreased due to maintenance, but the long - term surplus remains [11]. - Outlook: The supply surplus remains, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and decline in the long term [11]. Ferrosilicon Manganese - Core Logic: The ferrosilicon manganese price was weak. The cost pressure is high as the market is bearish on raw materials, and the South32 Australian ore is arriving at the port. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak as the black market enters the off - season [13]. - Outlook: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to continue to decline as the manganese ore inventory rises and the coke price is falling [13]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The ferrosilicon price was weak. The supply increased slightly as some furnaces were restarted. The demand is weak as the steel market enters the off - season and the metal magnesium market is sluggish [14]. - Outlook: The supply and demand are both weak, and the demand may weaken further. The price is expected to oscillate under pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel procurement and production [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: After China and the US reached a tariff delay agreement, US consumer confidence was significantly boosted, but the improvement in the labor market was limited, and the long - term economic resilience needs further observation. Domestic macro: Manufacturing enterprises' profits and PMI maintained strong resilience. The report maintains the view of more hedging and more volatility overseas and a structural market in China, and suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. For domestic assets, the export resilience and the window period of tariff relaxation support the economic growth rate in the second quarter. The bond market still has value for dip - buying after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities return to the fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound oscillations [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Essentials - **Overseas**: The consumer confidence index jumped from 85.7 to 98.0 in May. Consumers were more optimistic about the economic outlook, but the labor market improvement was limited, and the long - term economic resilience was uncertain. - **Domestic**: From January to April, the total profits of large - scale industrial enterprises reached 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5 percentage points. The export resilience and tariff relaxation window period support the economic growth rate in the second quarter. - **Asset Views**: Maintain the view of more hedging and more volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. The bond market has dip - buying value after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities show short - term range - bound oscillations [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - **Domestic**: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the short - term fiscal end implements established policies. - **Overseas**: The inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: There are external positives, and changes should be dealt with cautiously. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - **Stock Index Options**: Volatility is further suppressed. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Risk appetite rises, and the bullish sentiment in the bond market is suppressed. The short - term judgment is range - bound [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. The short - term judgment is range - bound [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Pay attention to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term judgment is range - bound [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The demand expectation is pessimistic, and spot transactions are weak. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron output decreased slightly, and the price oscillated. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - **Coke**: The off - season deepened, and the second round of price cuts was implemented. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - **Coking Coal**: The supply pressure remained high, and there was little support below. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - Other varieties such as silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash also have corresponding market logics, and most of the short - term judgments are range - bound [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The inventory continued to accumulate, and the copper price oscillated at a high level. The short - term judgment is range - bound increase. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking the mining license was not finalized, and the alumina futures oscillated at a high level. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - Other non - ferrous metal varieties such as aluminum, zinc, and lead also have corresponding market logics, and most of the short - term judgments are range - bound [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: There were more macro disturbances, and the supply pressure remained. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - **LPG**: The demand continued to weaken, and LPG maintained a weak range - bound oscillation. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - Other energy and chemical varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil also have corresponding market logics, and the short - term judgments vary from range - bound decline to range - bound increase [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - **Pork**: The expectation of inventory reduction drove the futures price of pork to rebound. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - **Rubber**: The warehouse receipts continued to be cancelled, and NR rebounded strongly. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - Other agricultural products such as cotton, sugar, and logs also have corresponding market logics, and most of the short - term judgments are range - bound [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each financial derivative product, the following outlooks are given: - **Stock Index Futures**: Neutral (suggests a wait - and - see approach) [6] - **Stock Index Options**: Neutral (suggests a wait - and - see approach for direction strategies) [6] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Neutral (suggests a trend of oscillation) [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index Futures**: External factors bring short - term positive news, but due to uncertainties in tariff policies and lack of fundamental support, investors are advised to wait and see instead of actively increasing positions [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: The volatility is further suppressed, and the market has weak expectations for fluctuations. Direction strategies suggest waiting and seeing, with a focus on covered call strategies and light - position long - volatility strategies [2][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Market risk appetite has increased, suppressing the bullish sentiment in the bond market. Attention should be paid to upcoming economic data and central bank operations, and different strategies are proposed for different trading purposes [6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The market volume increased and prices rose, with the All - A Index up 1.17%. The catalyst was the US court's prevention of Trump's tariff policy, leading to a general rise in the Asia - Pacific market [6]. - **Futures Market Signals**: The total position of IM increased by nearly 30,000 contracts, and the discount of the current - quarter contract of IM narrowed, indicating active long - position capital layout [6]. - **Investment Advice**: Wait and see due to uncertainties in tariff policies and the low cost - performance of small - cap stocks [6]. Stock Index Options - **Market Liquidity**: Driven by the strong performance of the underlying assets, the trading volume increased by nearly 50%, mainly concentrated in the morning session [2][6]. - **Volatility**: Volatility declined rapidly after the mid - day session, with both call and put volatilities decreasing, indicating weak market expectations for fluctuations [2][6]. - **Investment Advice**: Wait and see for direction strategies, focus on covered call strategies, and lightly position in long - volatility strategies at low levels [2][6]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures continued to be weak, with the T main contract opening lower and trading at a low level throughout the day [3][6][7]. - **Influencing Factors**: Uncertainties in Trump's tariff policy, strong stock market performance, and upcoming 5 - month PMI data affected market sentiment [3][6][8]. - **Investment Advice**: Trend strategy: oscillation; Hedging strategy: pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels; Basis strategy: appropriately pay attention to basis widening; Curve strategy: steeper curve has higher odds in the medium term [8]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - **US Economic Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending May 24, 2025, was 240,000, higher than the previous value of 227,000 and the forecast of 230,000. The annual rate of the US core PCE price index in April 2025 is expected to be 2.6%, and the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in May 2025 is expected to be 51 [9]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Airlines**: Starting from June 5, 2025, airlines will adjust the fuel surcharge for domestic flights. Flights of 800 kilometers or less will be exempt from the surcharge, while flights over 800 kilometers will charge 10 yuan per passenger per segment [9]. - **Cultural Exports**: Four departments jointly released the list of key cultural export enterprises and projects for 2025 - 2026, identifying 404 enterprises and 121 projects [10]. - **Tariffs**: The Chinese side urges the US to completely cancel unilateral tariff - imposing measures, and the US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff policies were illegal [10]. - **Credit Bonds**: Multiple credit bond ETFs have received approval from the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation to be included in the repurchase collateral pool [10].

Group 1: Core View - The EIA weekly data shows that oil product inventories decreased and apparent demand rebounded. The decline in US commercial crude oil inventory in the week of May 23 was mainly due to the increase in net crude oil exports. Gasoline and diesel inventories both decreased, with diesel inventory reaching an absolute low. The apparent demand for refined oil products rebounded in a single week. Currently, US production is relatively stable, and the demand side shows a seasonal recovery but with limited highlights. The single - week data on the inventory side is relatively positive [4]. Group 2: Data Summary Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory change: decreased by 2.795 million barrels (previous value: increased by 1.328 million barrels) [4][6] - US Cushing crude oil inventory change: increased by 75,000 barrels (previous value: decreased by 457,000 barrels) [6] - US strategic petroleum inventory change: increased by 820,000 barrels (previous value: increased by 843,000 barrels) [6] - US gasoline inventory change: decreased by 2.441 million barrels (previous value: increased by 816,000 barrels) [6] - US diesel inventory change: decreased by 724,000 barrels (previous value: increased by 579,000 barrels) [6] - US jet fuel inventory change: increased by 607,000 barrels (previous value: increased by 462,000 barrels) [6] - US fuel oil inventory change: increased by 270,000 barrels (previous value: decreased by 760,000 barrels) [6] - US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR): decreased by 665,000 barrels (previous value: increased by 4.931 million barrels) [6] Production and Consumption Data - US crude oil production: 13.401 million barrels per day (previous value: 13.392 million barrels per day) [6] - US refined oil apparent demand: 20.242 million barrels per day (previous value: 20.031 million barrels per day) [6] - US gasoline apparent demand: 9.452 million barrels per day (previous value: 8.644 million barrels per day) [6] - US diesel apparent demand: 3.893 million barrels per day (previous value: 3.412 million barrels per day) [6] - US crude oil imports: 6.351 million barrels per day (previous value: 6.089 million barrels per day) [6] - US crude oil exports: 4.301 million barrels per day (previous value: 3.507 million barrels per day) [6] - US refinery crude oil processing volume: 16.328 million barrels per day (previous value: 16.49 million barrels per day) [6] - US refinery utilization rate: 90.2% (previous value: 90.7%) [6]