1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, the mid - term outlooks are as follows: - Copper: Oscillating on the strong side [5] - Alumina: Oscillating [5] - Aluminum: Oscillating [6] - Zinc: Oscillating on the weak side [7] - Lead: Oscillating [10] - Nickel: Oscillating on the weak side [11] - Stainless steel: Oscillating [15] - Tin: Oscillating [18] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The overall view is that the US dollar is trending weakly, providing support for the non - ferrous metals market. In the short - to - medium term, the real supply - demand fundamentals are expected to strengthen again, and the macro - outlook is positive with some fluctuations. Attention should be paid to structural opportunities and short - long opportunities for varieties with supply disruptions. In the long - term, the demand prospects for base metals are uncertain, and opportunities to short on rallies can be considered for some oversupplied or expected - to - be - oversupplied varieties [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information: Supply disruptions occur at Zijin Mining's mine, and the annual mid - term negotiation for copper processing fees is approaching. China's electrolytic copper production has increased, and the spot premium is stable. The inventory has decreased slightly. Glencore is buying Russian copper for the Chinese market [5]. - Logic: Macro risks have decreased, and the supply of copper mines is tight with ongoing processing fee negotiations. Demand is rising in the peak season, but the inventory decline has slowed down [5]. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to oscillate on the strong side in the short term due to supply constraints and increasing demand [5]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Information: The spot price has a slow increase, and a Guizhou enterprise is resuming production. Guinea is cracking down on mining rights [5]. - Logic: In the short - to - medium term, the supply of bauxite is sufficient, and the tightness of the spot market has eased. There are many long - term news events causing market fluctuations [5]. - Outlook: The logic of near - month production resumption is more certain. Consider 7 - 9/7 - 1 reverse arbitrage after the spot and inventory inflection points [5]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information: The spot price is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. Some enterprises in Sichuan are resuming production. Russia may supply more aluminum to the US [6]. - Logic: Tariff issues have improved, and the supply growth is limited. The demand is strengthening, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance in the long - term [6]. - Outlook: The demand is rising slightly, and the inventory is expected to decline. It is recommended to go long on dips, and the price will oscillate [6]. 3.1.4 Zinc - Information: The spot premium is stable, and the inventory is decreasing. A mine's production is expected to be lower than expected [7]. - Logic: The market has digested the maintenance news. The supply of zinc ore is loosening, and the demand is seasonally rising but with limited new orders [7]. - Outlook: The demand is recovering, but the long - term supply surplus is expected, and the price will oscillate on the weak side [7]. 3.1.5 Lead - Information: The price of waste batteries has increased, and the lead ingot price has decreased slightly. The inventory has decreased, and it is the traditional consumption off - season [10]. - Logic: The spot discount is stable, the supply cost is rising, and the demand from battery factories is good [10]. - Outlook: After the Geneva negotiation, the tariff impact has weakened. The demand is in the off - season, but the cost support is stable, and the price will oscillate [10]. 3.1.6 Nickel - Information: The LME and domestic inventories are increasing. Indonesia has various policies and events affecting the nickel market [11]. - Logic: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industry fundamentals are weakening marginally, with high inventory and supply pressure [11]. - Outlook: Short - term wide - range oscillation, and short on rallies for the long - term [11]. 3.1.7 Stainless steel - Information: The futures warehouse receipt inventory has decreased, and the spot premium has widened. The predicted price of Indonesian nickel ore is stable to slightly decreasing [15]. - Logic: The price of nickel and chromium is stable, and the supply is high. The demand is out of the peak season, and the inventory has decreased [15]. - Outlook: Cost provides some support, but demand is weakening. The price will oscillate in the short term [15]. 3.1.8 Tin - Information: The inventory in London and Shanghai has changed, and the spot price has increased slightly. There are rumors of tin ore inflows from Wa State [18]. - Logic: The market sentiment has improved, and the fundamentals are still resilient. However, supply disruptions are easing, and the long - term demand is not optimistic [18]. - Outlook: The macro - environment has improved, but the upside is limited. The price will oscillate, and the performance of开工 rate and inventory will determine the price height in the second quarter [18]. 3.2行情监测 The report only lists the names of different metals (copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin) for monitoring, but no specific monitoring content is provided [21][35][47][60][64][84][99][109]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 展望：短期来看，基本面情绪仍偏弱，当前端午假期临近，且短期盘面 更多是围绕着情绪交易，操作上建议暂时观。 ⻛险因素：宏观对商品超预期的扰动，天气。 农业团队 油脂：美豆种植顺利推进，昨日棕油表现相对偏强 蛋⽩粕：双粕减仓收涨，或步入震荡调整 ⽟⽶/淀粉：暂无明确驱动，玉米震荡运行 ⽣猪：端午节日拉动，消费小幅增加 橡㬵：情绪崩塌，NR从领涨到领跌 合成橡㬵：天胶大跌拖拽，盘面跌回低位 纸浆：外盘报价下调冲击，纸浆重回弱势 棉花：大宗商品氛围转弱，棉价震荡走弱 ⽩糖：糖价震荡偏弱运行 原⽊：空头离场，原木反弹 ⻛险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 橡㬵：情绪崩塌，NR从领涨到领跌 逻辑：从5月27日夜盘开始，RU增仓持续下行，今日不仅打破了清明假期 后的低点，更是回到了去年3月以来的新低。而NR在前一日增仓炒作仓单 快速注销的看涨氛围还未消散的背景下，夜盘开盘后快速减仓，最终造 成多头踩踏式下跌。然而在今天大跌后，仍有超1万吨仓单被继续注销， 关注后续情绪变化。基本面方面变化不大，从供给端来说，泰国由于雨 季提前导致割胶工作开展并不顺利， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Shipping companies are affected by freight rate and fuel cost fluctuations. SCFIS(Europe) futures (EC) can manage freight rate volatility risks, and fuel oil futures (FU/LU) can hedge fuel cost fluctuations. The report constructs a hedging operation plan for container shipping futures from seven perspectives for enterprises' reference. Shipping companies can adopt different methods for cost management under different circumstances [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Background 3.1.1 Participants of EC - **Shipping Enterprises**: They play an upstream role in the container shipping industry chain, usually operating in alliances. They can short EC to secure income. For example, in 2025, Mediterranean Shg Co ranked first globally with a fleet of 6,591,391 TEU and a share of 20.50% [15][18]. - **Freight Forwarders**: They are an important link between upstream shipping companies and downstream cargo owners. China's freight forwarding enterprises are under the supervision of the Ministry of Commerce. They bear the dual - sided volatility of freight rates. In 2024, Sinotrans ranked first in global ocean freight forwarders with a cargo volume of 4,872,248 TEU [20][22]. - **Cargo Owners**: They are usually worried about the climb of spot freight and can hold long positions in the container shipping futures market to manage risks. Cargo owners interested in EC are mainly in six industries: automobile, chemical, furniture, paper, photovoltaic, and home appliance. For example, the Red Sea Crisis led to unavailable export container space and volatile freight rates eroding profits [26]. 3.1.2 Hedging Principles - **Price Correlation**: The essence of hedging is risk hedging, based on the principle that spot and futures prices fluctuate in the same direction, and opposite positions are established to mitigate risks. Innovative derivative tools like OTC options, freight rate ETFs, and "insurance + futures" can also be used for freight rate risk management. Due to short listing periods and various events, freight rates have shown wide fluctuations. The SCFIS Europe reflects actual departure freight rates, but there is a timing discrepancy between the basis and the reflection of the spot market [31][35]. - **Basis Influence**: BASIS = SPOT PRICE - FUTURES PRICE. The impact of basis changes on hedging results varies. For short hedging, a stable basis leads to a perfect hedge, a weakening basis results in a net loss, and a strengthening basis leads to a net profit. The opposite is true for long hedging [37][39]. 3.1.3 Freight and Fuel Oil price comparison There is a weak correlation between marine fuel oil prices and container shipping freight rates. Container shipping spot market freight rates are affected by seasonal and supply - chain factors, while fuel prices are influenced by international crude oil markets, geopolitics, and refining capacity. Whether shipping companies can pass on fuel cost increases to freight rate hikes depends on market competition [43]. 3.2 EC Hedging Scheme 3.2.1 Risk Exposure Container shipping companies face dual fluctuations in revenue and costs. Revenue is mainly determined by freight rates and is highly correlated with freight indices like CCFI, which can be hedged through EC. Costs are mostly fixed, but fuel oil price fluctuations have a significant impact on costs [49]. 3.2.2 Seven Steps - **Different Risk Exposures and Demands**: Upstream shipping enterprises worried about falling freight rates can open short positions; midstream freight forwarding enterprises bear dual risks and need balanced positions; downstream manufacturing and trading enterprises worried about rising freight rates can open long positions [58][59]. - **Hedging Scale**: Determine the actual risk exposure by considering long - term contracts and risk management ratios. Enterprises can conduct monthly rolling risk hedging based on actual monthly freight volume [64]. - **Hedging Quantity**: Divide the enterprise's monthly freight volume by the value of one futures contract on the disk to obtain the number of open positions. By mid - April 2025, one futures contract corresponded to approximately 9.1 TEUs or 5.86 FEUs [70]. - **Hedging Contracts**: Generally, prefer the main contract. If the forward contract has good liquidity and meets the psychological price, choose the contract close to the actual shipment time [74]. - **Impact of Container Type**: Enterprises mostly use a single container type of 40 - foot or 20 - foot. The freight rate ratio between them is long - term stable but may fluctuate due to supply - demand mismatches [78]. - **Impact of Exchange Rates**: Freight rates are settled in US dollars, and there is a certain negative correlation between exchange rates and freight rates. Exchange rates affect exports and indirectly influence trade demand and container freight rates. Overall, freight rates are mainly determined by their own supply and demand [83]. - **Determine the Route**: The correlation between SCFI Europe and major ocean routes exceeds 90%. The hedging scale can be converted according to the average ratio of SCFI Europe freight rates to those of other major international routes. Coastal port freight rate differences are minimal, allowing hedging for non - Shanghai port export routes [89]. 3.2.3 Hedging Cases A shipping company in February 2025 expected to undertake 100 TEUs of cargo in April. Worried about the decline in freight rates in the off - season, it conducted sell hedging. Although the spot market price fell, the futures hedge reduced the loss to less than 10,000 RMB [93]. 3.3 Fuel Oil Hedging Scheme 3.3.1 Buy Hedging - **Basic Concepts**: As fuel oil futures and spot prices have similar trends, fuel oil futures can be used for hedging. Good buy - hedging timing includes when the supply - demand relationship turns from weak to strong, industry profits are low, the basis is high, and market expectations improve. Shipping companies can use inventory management + spot - futures arbitrage and procurement agency to hedge raw material price increase risks [99]. - **Strategic Path**: Conduct cost risk management by order through futures instruments [103]. 3.3.2 Sell Hedging - **Basic Concepts**: Fuel oil futures contracts can be used for hedging. Shipping companies can achieve inventory management + spot - futures arbitrage and inventory hedging. Good sell - hedging timing includes when the supply - demand relationship turns from strong to weak, industry profits are high, the basis is low, and market expectations deteriorate [108]. - **Cases**: In January 2020, a shipping company conducted fuel oil selling hedging. Although the spot price declined, the futures hedge not only offset the spot losses but also generated additional gains due to the strengthening basis [113]. - **Characteristics**: Take orders as units to conduct cost risk management through futures, locking in order gross profit and processing profits within a controllable range [117]. 3.4 Comparison of Profit - to - Spot Fuel Price Ratio of Shipping Companies - The correlation between the profits of container shipping companies and the ratio of freight rates to fuel oil prices reaches 69.5%. Freight rates remain the main factor causing fluctuations in net profits. There is a certain correlation between freight rates and fuel oil prices, and shipping companies' net profit is highly correlated with both. Shipping companies can lock in profits to some extent by using futures tools [122][127]. 3.5 Futures Contracts - **EC Futures Contracts**: The contract multiplier is 50 Yuan per index point, with a minimum price fluctuation of 0.1 index points. It has specific trading hours, daily price limits, and settlement types [129]. - **FU Futures Contracts**: The contract size is 10 metric tons/lot, with a minimum price fluctuation of 1 Yuan/metric ton. It has physical delivery and specific trading and delivery periods [132]. - **LU Futures Contracts**: Similar to FU, with a contract size of 10 metric tons/lot, specific trading and delivery months, and physical delivery [133].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/05/28 Risks: Macroeconomic fluctuations, geopolitical situations, and reversals in policy trends. 宏观方面：1—4 月份全国规模以上工业企业利润总额同比增长 1.4%。 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 A ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various asset classes and industries. It maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas, and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, the US inflation expectation structure is stable with short - term fundamental resilience, while in China, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Different industries and asset classes are expected to show different trends, mostly in a state of oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Tariff and US debt concerns are the main drivers of market volatility in May. The EU has requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, which was approved by President Trump. The US House of Representatives passed a large - scale tax - cut and spending bill, increasing concerns about US debt. US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1%, and the May manufacturing and service PMIs were better than expected [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: April's domestic economic data showed resilience, and policy expectations were generally stable. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation was completed. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs were both cut by 10BP in May, and major state - owned banks lowered deposit rates. Investment and consumption growth in April slightly slowed down but remained resilient. Fixed - asset investment from January to April increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1% year - on - year in April [6]. - **Asset View**: In the large - scale asset category, the report maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. In the overseas market, the US inflation expectation structure is stable, and the short - term fundamentals are resilient. In the Chinese market, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Bonds have allocation value after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The proportion of small - cap and micro - cap trading volume shows a downward trend, and the stock index discount is converging, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and attention should be paid to the option market liquidity, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations, with an expected oscillation [7]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, with an expected oscillation [7]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Demand continues to weaken, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The arrival of shipments has been continuously low, and port inventories have decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, and port inventory changes, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coke enterprises are having difficulty in shipping. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The pressure to reduce inventory is increasing, and market sentiment is low. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, with an expected oscillation and increase [7]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the aluminum oxide market oscillates at a high level. Attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of production increase is strengthened, and oil prices continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the US sanctions on Iran, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **LPG**: Demand continues to weaken, and LPG maintains a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Concerns about tariffs have subsided, and the over - expected scale of EG maintenance has boosted futures prices. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand for ethylene glycol, with an expected oscillation and increase [9]. Agriculture - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of pigs stopped falling before the festival, but the futures market remained weak. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillate slightly. Attention should be paid to demand and production, with an expected oscillation [9].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-05-28 美元走势偏弱，有色下方仍有支撑 铜观点：供应端再现扰动，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：⼏内亚消息博弈，氧化铝远⽉⾼位回落。 铝观点：贸易紧张局势缓解，铝价偏强震荡。 锌观点：锌锭库存再度去化，锌价⼩幅反弹。 铅观点：成本⽀撑暂稳，铅价震荡运⾏。 镍观点：供需整体偏弱，短期镍价宽幅震荡。 不锈钢观点：镍铁价格回升，盘⾯震荡运⾏。 锡观点：⾼价抑制补库意愿，锡价震荡运⾏。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 李苏横 从业资格号：F03093505 投资咨询号：Z0017197 有⾊观点：美元⾛势偏弱，有⾊下⽅仍有⽀撑 交易逻辑：5月欧美制造业PMI初值好于预期且回升，美元指数延续弱 势；上周末前特朗普威胁6月1日起对欧洲加税50%，但随后延期至7月 9日，这意味着美国关税政策仍有反复，不过整体略偏正面。供需面 来看，基本金属供需有再度趋紧迹象，库存整体重回去化，并且像铜 等品种再度出现矿端扰动的问题。中短期来看，现实供需基本面支撑 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", etc., but does not give a unified industry investment rating [5][6] Core View of the Report - The black market has seen continuous days of increased - position decline, with the spot market cautious and prices dropping. Although domestic demand is seasonally weak and export pessimism has intensified, if exports do not deteriorate significantly, the current industry supply - demand situation does not support a trend - based decline. The market trading logic has shifted to the domestic industry fundamentals, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1][2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Situation of the Black Industry - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the "rush for exports" is less than expected. Some blast furnaces are under maintenance, and hot metal production has declined from its peak. However, steel inventory pressure is not large this year compared to last year, and steel mill profits are acceptable. Overseas mine new - capacity increments are not obvious, and port inventories are continuously decreasing [1][2] - **Market Outlook**: If exports do not deteriorate significantly, the current industry supply - demand situation does not support a trend - based decline [1][2][5] Iron Element (Iron Ore) - **Supply**: Short - term supply increments are not obvious due to the slower - than - expected progress of overseas new projects, and the expected supply increment for the year will be adjusted downwards [2][6] - **Demand**: Steel enterprises have relatively little short - term passive production - reduction pressure [2][6] - **Inventory**: Port inventories are decreasing, and the total inventory has declined [2][6] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term supply and demand are balanced, but due to the marginal weakening of steel exports and the decline of hot metal production, the market is trading the industry's "negative feedback", and iron ore prices are under downward pressure. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate [2][6] Carbon Element (Coking Coal and Coke) Coking Coal - **Supply**: Some coal mines have reduced production due to accidents and maintenance, but most main - producing area coal mines maintain normal production, and coking coal production remains high and stable. Mongolian coal port inventories are continuously accumulating, and traders face large shipment pressures, so overall supply is sufficient [3][8] - **Demand**: Coke production is at a high level in the same period, but coke enterprises face increasing inventory - reduction pressure, low coking profits, and limited space for coke production increase [3][8] - **Inventory**: As the coke price reduction cycle begins, coke enterprises' enthusiasm for raw material replenishment decreases, and the upstream inventory pressure of coking coal gradually increases [3][8] - **Market Outlook**: Supply pressure is difficult to resolve, and there is room for further decline in valuation. The futures price is expected to continue its weak trend [3][8] Coke - **Supply**: Coke enterprise profits have slightly shrunk, but upstream inventory pressure is acceptable, and the overall coke production level remains stable [6][7] - **Demand**: Hot metal production has declined from its peak, and terminal steel demand is gradually entering the off - season, so hot metal production may further decline in the future [6][7] - **Market Outlook**: With stable upstream supply and weakening demand support, and cost - end drag, coke prices are prone to fall and difficult to rise. In the short term, the futures market is expected to remain weak [6][7] Alloys (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) Silicon Manganese - **Supply**: There has been an increase in the resumption of production in Inner Mongolia recently, and production is expected to increase. As manganese ore shipments resume, port inventories of manganese ore are slowly rising [3][10][11] - **Demand**: Market sentiment remains cautious, and the supply - demand relationship tends to be loose [10][11] - **Market Outlook**: After the price decline, it is expected to oscillate under pressure in the short term, and there is still downward pressure in the medium term [10][11] Silicon Iron - **Supply**: A large silicon - iron factory in Inner Mongolia has shut down some furnaces, and daily silicon - iron production has decreased [12] - **Demand**: Steel mill tenders in May have basically completed procurement, and terminal steel is about to enter the off - season. The market demand expectation remains cautious, and the demand in the magnesium metal market is weak [12] - **Market Outlook**: Supply and demand contradictions have eased, but there is still an expectation of cost loosening. The futures market is expected to oscillate under pressure in the short term [12] Glass - **Demand**: Demand decline in the off - season is not obvious, and deep - processing demand has improved month - on - month but is still weak year - on - year. Spot production and sales have weakened [8] - **Supply**: Daily melting volume remains stable. Low prices suppress the willingness to resume production, and the willingness for cold repair is not obvious. Market rumors about environmental protection issues of Hubei production lines have led to a small rebound in the futures market [8] - **Inventory**: Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and mid - stream inventories have declined [8] - **Market Outlook**: Real - world demand faces certain pressure in the off - season, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. The short - term view is to maintain oscillation [8] Soda Ash - **Supply**: The over - supply pattern has not changed. Although there are many maintenance operations in May, some enterprises have resumed production, and supply pressure still exists [5][9] - **Demand**: Heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. The overall daily melting volume of float glass fluctuates little, and there are still production lines being ignited in the photovoltaic industry, but the growth of photovoltaic glass daily melting volume may not be sustainable [9] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center will still decline in the long term [5][9] Steel - **Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major steel products has decreased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the decline has further widened. Domestic demand is still weak, but the overall steel contradictions are limited. Attention should be paid to the export demand situation [6] - **Supply**: Hot metal production is at a high level, and overall steel production has increased [6] - **Market Outlook**: The fundamentals have weakened month - on - month this week, and domestic off - season demand is still under pressure. However, overseas demand may be able to absorb the current high production after the export is no longer restricted by tariffs. The key lies in when exports will weaken. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6] Scrap Steel - **Supply**: The five - day average arrival volume has rebounded compared to last week and is at a relatively high level in the same period [6] - **Demand**: The daily consumption of electric furnaces has slightly increased, mainly in East and Southwest China. The hot metal production of blast furnaces has slightly decreased, and the cost - performance of scrap steel has decreased, so the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has decreased, and the total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has slightly increased [6] - **Inventory**: After the arrival volume rebounded, the factory inventory has slightly increased and is higher than the same period [6] - **Market Outlook**: The market is pessimistic about off - season demand, finished - product prices are under pressure, and the loss of electric furnaces during off - peak hours has intensified. The future price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical market continues to fluctuate, and the market is waiting for a clearer trend. The increase in production by OPEC+ and geopolitical factors are the main factors affecting the market [1][2]. - The prices of chemical products have intensified in recent games. The increase in container shipping volume from China to the United States and the expected increase in production by OPEC+ have become trading points. The market is worried about a decline in crude oil prices in the future, and investors generally view the chemical market with a fluctuating mindset [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Crude oil market continues to fluctuate. Geopolitical factors support oil prices, but the possibility of OPEC+ increasing production limits the increase in oil prices [1]. - Chemical products continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The resumption of device maintenance and production and the improvement of demand have become the focus of the game [2]. 3.2 Variety Viewpoints | Variety | Viewpoint | Mid - term Outlook | | --- | --- | --- | | Crude Oil | Concerns about production increase persist, and oil prices are still under pressure | Oscillating weakly [4] | | LPG | Domestic demand remains weak, and the rebound of PG is limited | Oscillating weakly [6] | | Asphalt | The futures price of asphalt is overestimated and waiting to fall | Oscillating weakly [4] | | High - sulfur Fuel Oil | The overestimated state of high - sulfur fuel oil is waiting to fall | Oscillating weakly [4][5] | | Low - sulfur Fuel Oil | The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil | Oscillating weakly [6] | | Methanol | The inland price has declined slightly, and it fluctuates in the short term | Oscillating [14] | | Urea | The domestic rigid demand and export demand have not been linked, and the futures market fluctuates weakly | Oscillating [14] | | PX | Supply and demand are tightening, and PX prices are rising | Oscillating [8] | | PTA | The market lacks driving force, and PTA maintains an oscillating pattern | Oscillating [8] | | Ethylene Glycol | The reduction in polyester production drags down the demand for EG, but the expectation of inventory reduction still supports the futures price | Oscillating [10][11] | | Short - fiber | The basis strengthens, and the pattern of short - fiber remains healthy | Oscillating [11][12] | | Bottle Chip | Fluctuates and consolidates following raw materials | Oscillating [13] | | PP | Supply and demand are still under pressure, and PP fluctuates weakly | Oscillating weakly [16][17] | | Plastic | The fundamental pressure needs to be alleviated by increased maintenance, and plastic fluctuates | Oscillating [16] | | Styrene | The actual performance is still poor, and styrene fluctuates weakly | Oscillating weakly [8][9] | | PVC | Weak expectations and low valuations, and the futures market fluctuates | Oscillating [19] | | Caustic Soda | Strong current situation and weak expectations, and caustic soda fluctuates | Oscillating weakly [19] | 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as SC (M1 - M2) with a latest value of - 3 and a change of 4, and WTI (M1 - M2) with a latest value of 0.64 and a change of 0.04 [20]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, the basis of asphalt is 109 with a change of 10, and the warehouse receipt is 86510 [21]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also specific values and changes for inter - variety spreads, like 1 - month PP - 3MA with a latest value of 6 and a change of 0 [22]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report mentions basis and spread monitoring for multiple chemical varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided text [23][35][47].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-05-28 有⾊与新材料团队 新能源金属供需弱改善，但过剩预期继续驱 动价格大跌 新能源观点：新能源⾦属供需弱改善，但过剩预期继续驱动价格⼤跌 交易逻辑：价格跌跌不休引发供应持续小幅收缩，供需弱改善。但供 需过剩预期驱动价格进一步恐慌性杀跌，当前价格临近重要敏感成本 支撑区域。中短期来看，新能源金属价格走势偏弱，但逐步临近重要 敏感成本区域，仍需谨防价格双边波动风险；中长期来看，低价或有 望进一步加快国内自主定价品种的产能出清，比如：多晶硅和工业硅 等。 ⼯业硅观点：供应压⼒加剧，硅价承压运⾏。 多晶硅观点：多空博弈加剧，多晶硅价格宽幅波动。 碳酸锂观点：仓单库存去化，锂价减仓反弹。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 研究员： 李苏横 从业资格号：F03093505 投资咨询号：Z0017197 郑非凡 从业资格号：F03088415 投资咨询号：Z0016667 白帅 从业资格号：F03093201 投资咨询号：Z0020543 杨飞 从业资格号：F03 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The easing of risk aversion demand dragged down the gold price. Yesterday, Japan considered cutting the issuance plan of long - term bonds, and consumer confidence improved more than expected, leading to a decline in precious metals [1]. - The short - term trend of gold depends on the battle for key support levels and signals from the Fed's policies. In the long run, the expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the surge in China's gold imports in April may provide resilience to the gold price, but short - term technical selling pressure and policy risks need to be watched out for [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - EU officials have asked major EU companies and CEOs to provide details of their investment plans in the US. After Trump revoked the threat of high - tariff on EU imports, the EU is preparing to advance trade negotiations with Washington [2]. - Chinese Premier Li Qiang said in Kuala Lumpur that economic globalization is experiencing unprecedented major shocks, and it is necessary to deepen mutual trust and expand opening - up [2]. - Japan will consider cutting the issuance of ultra - long - term bonds after the sharp rise in yields to ease market concerns about the deterioration of government finances [2][3]. Price Logic - Gold prices fell yesterday, breaking through the key support of $3,300 in the afternoon. The fundamentals are a mix of long and short factors, and market sentiment is affected by trade progress and economic data differentiation [3]. - US durable goods orders in April declined more than expected, but the March data was revised up to 7.6%, and the consumer confidence index rebounded to 98.0. Trump's plan to conduct trade negotiations with the EU weakened gold's safe - haven appeal. The strengthening of the US dollar offset the potential support of the decline in US Treasury yields on the gold price [3]. Outlook - Next week, focus on the US April PCE data and the first - quarter real GDP data, and continuously monitor changes in trade frictions. The weekly COMEX gold range is [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver range is [32, 35] [5].