1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 4, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose; most commodities fell, with energy and chemical products leading the decline [10][12]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate later, rapeseed meal prices will fluctuate at a low level, and crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate with a weak bias [17][24][30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - Equity indices fell and CGB futures rose on September 4. Most commodities declined, with energy and chemical products leading the drop [10][12]. - Among China's commodity futures, the top three gainers were rapeseed, iron ore, and egg; the top three decliners were Chinese jujube, LSFO, and fuel oil [10][11][12]. - In financial futures, IC declined by 2.4% and TL increased by 0.3% [11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Iron Ore**: On September 4, it rose 1.7% to 791.5 yuan/ton. Demand is high, supply and inventory are stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate later [15][17]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: On September 4, it rose 0.2% to 2519 yuan/ton. Protein meal may continue to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to international weather and domestic supply - demand changes [21][24]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop - **Crude Oil**: On September 4, it decreased by 2.2% to 481 yuan/barrel. Oil prices are likely to fluctuate with a weak bias, and attention should be paid to OPEC+ policies and geopolitical risks [28][30]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - Leaders of China and the DPRK will hold talks to strengthen cooperation [35][36]. - The "Action Plan for Stabilizing Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry (2025 - 2026)" was issued, with specific development targets set [35][36]. 3.2.2 Industry News - As of the end of July, the number of QFIIs reached 900, with 40 new ones added this year. The CSRC will introduce more reform measures to promote capital market opening [36].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The total global iron ore shipping volume this period was 3657 (+24) million tons. Specifically, Australia's shipping volume decreased quarter - on - quarter, while Brazil and non - mainstream countries' shipping volume increased quarter - on - quarter. The domestic ore arrival volume was 2526 (+133) million tons, as the ore from the previous shipping peak period arrived successively [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalog Global Shipping Volume - On August 29, 2025, the global shipping volume was 3556.8 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter increase of 241 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 107.9 million tons [3]. Shipping Volume by Region - **Australia**: On August 29, 2025, the shipping volume was 1811.5 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 69.5 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6 million tons. Rio Tinto and non - mainstream mines decreased quarter - on - quarter, FMG's shipping volume slightly decreased, and BHP's shipping volume increased. Overall, Australia's shipping volume decreased [2][3]. - **Brazil**: On August 29, 2025, the shipping volume was 996.6 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter increase of 184.9 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 62.4 million tons. Vale's shipping volume increased quarter - on - quarter, while non - mainstream mines decreased [2][3]. - **Non - mainstream countries**: The shipping volume increased quarter - on - quarter [2]. Shipping Volume by Major Mines - **Rio Tinto**: On August 29, 2025, the global shipping volume was 611 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 114.1 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 4.2 million tons; the shipping volume to China was 472.1 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 124.5 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 31.8 million tons [3]. - **BHP**: On August 29, 2025, the global shipping volume was 522.7 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter increase of 61.6 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 49.5 million tons; the shipping volume to China was 447.4 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter increase of 62 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 31.8 million tons [3]. - **FMG**: On August 29, 2025, the global shipping volume was 435 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.4 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 60.9 million tons; the shipping volume to China was 388.7 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 28.1 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 70.9 million tons [3]. - **Vale**: On August 29, 2025, the global shipping volume was 803.7 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter increase of 230.8 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 18.6 million tons [3]. Domestic Ore Arrival Volume - On August 29, 2025, the domestic ore arrival volume was 2526 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter increase of 132.7 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 316.8 million tons [3]. Shipping Ratio to China from Australia - On August 29, 2025, the ratio of Australia's shipping volume to China was 0.801, with a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.081 and a year - on - year increase of 0.01 [3].

期货有限公司 Futures Company Limited 政策落地预期升温,多晶硅价格再度回升 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 最新动态及原因 9月1日，多磊硅酶货车力合约大幅上涨6.0%，收于52285元吨。我们认为今日多磊硅价格上涨主要受到三方面因素能动：一是市场对落后产帮出清及落在产业重组针划关注度升高；高，二 是8月多最硅供应大幅回升后，市场预期9月起行业或将实施服产限售搭施以缓解棋需压力；三是头部企业服价或进一步上行，根据SMM标值，国内头部多最硅企业报价上调，其中棒状联主 流报价上涨至55元/千克,颗粒硅报价49元/千克。 基本面情况 多晶配行情已进入"政策地观"，市场对供给侧改革方案及政策落地出程关注度显著提升，短期价格维持贡匾震荡，走势高度依赖政策信号的强弱与执邪专。若供给侧相关方案及时 出台、产能出清路径清晰，价格有望持续偏强；否则市场情绪区将回落，交易将重新回归基本面。策略上，投资者可根据自身定位与风险偏好灵活应对，机构投资者可考虑卖出远月虚值看跌 期权,获取权利金收益。 风险提示 风险因素:供应端超预期减产;国内政策变化 研究员: | 郑非凡 从业资格号:F03088415 | 投 ...

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - As of August 31, the issuance progress of new special-purpose bonds was 74.2%, with 188 billion yuan issued this week, a decrease of 51.3 billion yuan week-on-week. In August, the cumulative issuance of new special-purpose bonds was 486.5 billion yuan [4]. - As of August 31, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 77.6%, with 35.3 billion yuan issued this week, an increase of 25.8 billion yuan week-on-week. In August, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds was 82.5 billion yuan [7][9]. - This week, the net financing scale of local government bonds was 243.5 billion yuan, an increase of 34.7 billion yuan week-on-week. As of August 31, the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 74.7% [11]. - This week, the net financing scale of national bonds was -237.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 589.7 billion yuan week-on-week. As of August 31, the net financing progress of national bonds was 69.7% [15][17]. - As of August 31, the combined issuance progress of national bond net financing and new local government bonds was 71.9% [19]. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Directory Summaries There is no clear directory information provided in the content, so this part cannot be summarized accordingly.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The corn market is currently in a weak position as the restocking phase has ended, but the decline after the new grain harvest is expected to be less than last year. Short - term, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds; long - term, consider low - buying when the futures price falls below cost [1][2]. - The oil market may continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, but is likely to strengthen in the medium term due to factors such as increased demand for palm oil and soybean oil from overseas biodiesel, potential reduction in US soybean yield, and the approaching palm oil production reduction season [6]. - The protein meal market will continue to fluctuate within a range. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips. Oil mills are advised to sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises should buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [7]. - The pig market is in a low - level oscillation. Before the National Day, the inventory will be gradually released, and the spot and near - month prices are expected to remain weak. The far - month contract is supported by the expectation of capacity reduction, presenting a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [9]. - The natural rubber market has no obvious short - term drivers and will maintain range - bound trading, with a short - term upward bias [12]. - The synthetic rubber market will maintain range - bound trading, and the short - term price is expected to rise slightly and the market may be strong [13]. - The cotton market has support but lacks upward drivers. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and may face downward pressure after the new cotton is listed in large quantities [14]. - The sugar market is in a downward trend. In the long term, due to the expected supply surplus in the new season, the price is expected to be weak; in the short term, it will fluctuate within the range of 5550 - 5750 [16]. - The pulp market has unclear core drivers and is expected to fluctuate [17]. - The log market is in a weak oscillation. Technically, it is in a downward trend, but the supply will ease in the future, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [18][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oil**: Due to pessimistic demand expectations, US soybeans fell on Tuesday while US soybean oil rose. The domestic oil market continued to fluctuate. Factors such as the US soybean's reduced excellent - rate, the impact of Sino - US trade relations on export demand, and the expected increase in US biodiesel demand for soybean oil were considered. The inventory of domestic soybean oil may peak, and the inventory increase of Malaysian palm oil in August may be limited. The short - term outlook is for continued oscillation and adjustment, and the medium - term outlook is for a strong trend [6]. - **Protein Meal**: International soybean prices are affected by weather and Sino - US trade relations. The US soybean excellent - rate has decreased, and the 9 - month supply - demand report may lower the yield per unit. The domestic market has limited room for price decline, and the demand is expected to increase steadily. The outlook is for range - bound trading [7]. - **Corn/Starch**: The domestic corn price is generally stable. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The wheat substitution may decrease. The short - term outlook is to wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and the long - term outlook is to consider low - buying [1][9]. - **Pig**: The short - term supply is abundant, and the long - term supply is expected to increase. The demand is affected by temperature changes, and the inventory is gradually being released. The market shows a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price fluctuates within a range. There are some positive factors such as the approaching seasonal rise period, but the short - term upward space is limited [12]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market follows the natural rubber market and is supported by the cost of raw material butadiene. The short - term price is expected to rise slightly [13]. - **Cotton**: The current low - inventory and improving - demand situation provides support for the price. The price is expected to be strong in the short term but may face pressure after the new cotton is listed [14]. - **Sugar**: The international and domestic sugar supplies are increasing, and the price is under downward pressure. The long - term outlook is for a weak trend, and the short - term outlook is for range - bound trading [16]. - **Pulp**: The spot trading is light, and the core driver of the futures is unclear. The price is expected to fluctuate [17]. - **Log**: The spot price is falling, and the market is in a weak oscillation. The supply pressure will ease in the future, and the market may show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [18][19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists the monitored varieties including oilseeds, protein meal, corn, starch, pigs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data analysis is provided [21][41][54]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report provides rating standards for the expected price trends of varieties, including strong, oscillating - strong, oscillating, oscillating - weak, and weak, with a time period of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method [170]. 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all showed slight increases on September 3, 2025 [172]. - **Agricultural Product Index**: On September 3, 2025, the agricultural product index had a daily decline of 0.06%, a 5 - day increase of 0.13%, a 1 - month decline of 0.88%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.74% [174].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term market volatility may increase. After important events, China may gradually enter the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the pricing weight of fundamentals for assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may increase. Overseas liquidity will maintain an expansion trend in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak US dollar" repair channel, which is expected to support the recovery of total demand and form a positive feedback between sentiment and overseas macro - fundamentals. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US macro - fundamentals are relatively stable, but the political pressure on the Fed has reached a new high, boosting market expectations of interest rate cuts. At the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting in August, Powell's dovish stance exceeded market expectations. On August 25, Trump removed the hawkish Fed governor Cook, further increasing market expectations of interest rate cuts. Currently, the US consumer's willingness to buy real estate, cars, and household durables is fluctuating widely at a low level, and the actual salary growth of US consumers is flat. The ability of residents to consume still awaits the transmission of interest rate cuts. Loose expectations and asset revaluation are expected to have a positive feedback effect on investment and consumption, but sticky service inflation, tariff shocks, and concerns about the Fed's independence remain tail risks [8] - **Domestic Macro**: Market expectations for corporate profit margins have improved. "Anti - involution" has promoted the continued improvement of mid - stream profits in July. Recently, demand - side policies in first - tier cities have been frequently introduced. The marginal relaxation of policies is expected to boost trading volume, but the sustainability remains to be seen. From January to July, the year - on - year decline in the profits of national industrial enterprises above the designated size narrowed to - 1.7%. "Anti - involution" has enabled the raw material processing industry to obtain a larger share of profits, while both upstream mining and downstream consumer goods industries have seen their profits squeezed. The issue of anti - involution still has a long way to go. In the real estate sector, first - tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have successively introduced policies to relax purchase restrictions and optimize provident funds. Compared with previous policies, the overall intensity of this round of policies is relatively weak. Structurally, the relaxation of new homes in the suburbs of core cities is relatively stronger, aiming to guide residents to digest the inventory of suburban new homes first, which has a marginal support for developers' liquidity [8] - **Asset Views**: Short - term market volatility may increase. After important events, China may gradually enter the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the pricing weight of fundamentals for assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may increase. Overseas liquidity will maintain an expansion trend in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak US dollar" repair channel, which is expected to support the recovery of total demand and form a positive feedback between sentiment and overseas macro - fundamentals. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [8] 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: For stock index futures, the chips show signs of loosening, and the short - term judgment is volatile upward. For stock index options, the strategy is mainly for hedging and defense, and the short - term judgment is volatile. For treasury bond futures, continue to pay attention to the performance of the stock market, and the short - term judgment is volatile [9] - **Precious Metals**: The expansion of interest rate cut expectations is beneficial to the price. For gold and silver, it is expected that the US interest rate cut cycle may restart in September, but the impact of market risk appetite needs to be noted. The short - term judgment is volatile upward [9] - **Shipping**: For the container shipping route to Europe, the peak season in the third quarter has turned dull, and there is a lack of upward driving force due to loading pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile [9] - **Black Building Materials**: After the parade, there are still upward expectations for the sector. For products such as steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc., they are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [9] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The weak US dollar continues to support non - ferrous metals, but the weakening demand also needs to be emphasized. Most products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [9] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The weakening of crude oil supply - demand and the decline of coking coal have dragged down the chemical industry. Most products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [11] - **Agriculture**: The agricultural sector is in a high - level narrow - range volatility, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, ratings include: "Weakly Bullish" (Urea), "Bullish within a Range" (Crude Oil, Asphalt, High - Sulfur Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil, PX, PTA, Short - Fiber, Bottle - Chip, Methanol, LLDPE, PP, PL, PVC, Caustic Soda, Styrene), and "Weakly Bearish" (Crude Oil, PP, LLDPE, PL, PVC, Caustic Soda) [4][8][9][10][11][12][13][15][16][17][20][21][23][24][25][26][28][29][30][32][33][34] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ may increase production beyond expectations in the meeting on September 7, which will exacerbate supply pressure and make the oversupply situation in the global crude oil market in Q4 2025 more severe. The price of oil is expected to be weak. The decline in raw material prices has dragged down the chemical industry. The weak pattern of olefins will continue. The implementation of measures such as "reducing oil and increasing chemicals" by Chinese leading petrochemical enterprises may weaken the upcoming anti - involution efforts in the petrochemical industry. Investors are advised to approach oil and chemical investments with a range - bound mindset and wait for the implementation of specific anti - involution policies in the domestic petrochemical industry [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Logic - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about production increases have resurfaced. OPEC+ may increase production beyond expectations in the September 7 meeting, and the US has threatened to impose more sanctions on Russia. The supply pressure is increasing, and the oil price is expected to be weak [2][8] - **Asphalt**: The upward trend has paused. The market is focusing on negative factors such as tariff increases and OPEC+ production increases. The supply shortage has been alleviated, and demand remains unoptimistic [9] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The price is fluctuating. The market is concerned about negative factors, but geopolitical premiums have increased. The increase in warehouse receipts limits price increases [9] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It fluctuates with crude oil. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, and is expected to maintain a low valuation [12] - **Methanol**: Port inventories continue to accumulate, and the price is fluctuating. Inner Mongolia's market sentiment is good, but port inventories have increased. Considering the high probability of overseas shutdowns in the far - term, there may be opportunities for long - positions in the far - term [24][25] - **Urea**: The market stalemate continues and is expected to strengthen. The market is waiting for the Indian tender information. The supply is expected to decrease, and autumn demand is expected to pick up [25][26] - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is a game between low - inventory support and divergent expectations. The commodity sentiment is cold, and the polyester sales are falling. There is pressure on future supply [17][18] - **PX**: The sales of polyester downstream are poor, and sellers are under pressure to lower prices. The macro - financial market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and PX lacks positive support [13] - **PTA**: It is oscillating to find support, with cost and sentiment determining the direction. The commodity market sentiment is poor, and polyester sales are flat. There is support at the bottom, but processing fees may be compressed [13] - **Short - Fiber**: Sales are mediocre, and the sustainability of the peak season is questionable. The upstream cost is poor, and the supply - demand situation has weakened. It follows cost fluctuations in the short - term [20][21] - **Bottle - Chip**: The upstream cost is poor, and its own driving force is weak. It follows the cost fluctuations of raw materials [21] - **PP**: The oil price has fallen, and the support from maintenance is limited. The supply is increasing, and the demand support is limited. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [29][30] - **Propylene (PL)**: It fluctuates with PP in the short - term. The downstream cost pressure is increasing, and the price is mainly adjusted within a narrow range [30] - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The oil price has decreased, and it fluctuates weakly. The oil price is under pressure, and the actual impact of domestic measures to address overcapacity is limited. The fundamentals are under pressure [28] - **Pure Benzene**: The port will return to inventory accumulation, and the price will fluctuate weakly. The import volume is increasing, and the demand of downstream products has not improved significantly [14][15][16] - **Styrene**: Short - sellers have reduced their positions, and the market has rebounded. The inventory is at a high level, and the demand of downstream products is poor. There is support at a certain price level, but there is a risk of further decline in valuation [16][17] - **PVC**: Weak reality suppresses its performance, and it operates weakly. The macro - policy has not been implemented, and the fundamentals are under pressure. The cost has decreased, and the export expectation is under pressure [33] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has temporarily reached a peak, and the market is cautiously bearish. The macro - policy has not been implemented, and the fundamentals have marginally improved. Considering the expected alumina production in the far - term, the downward space is limited [33][34] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spreads**: The report provides inter - period spread data for various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing the changes in spreads [35] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on basis and warehouse receipts for products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., are provided, along with their changes [36] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Inter - variety spread data, including 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc., are given, showing the changes in spreads [38] - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring** - The report mentions monitoring of basis and spreads for products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented [39][52][64] 3.3 Commodity Index - On September 3, 2025, the comprehensive index, special index (including commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index), and sector index (energy index) of the CITIC Futures Commodity Index showed different degrees of change. For example, the energy index increased by 0.16% on the day, 1.59% in the past 5 days, decreased by 2.39% in the past month, and decreased by 0.59% since the beginning of the year [281][282][284]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the entire black building materials sector is "oscillating" [5]. - For individual varieties, the mid - term outlooks for steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are all "oscillating" [7][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][17]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of the military parade on the sector is gradually diminishing. As coal - coking and steel enterprises resume production, the demand for furnace materials is increasing, especially for iron ore. However, the overall upward movement of the sector's prices depends on the start of the replenishment logic under continuous demand improvement. The increasing expectation of a US interest rate cut may further boost the sector sentimentally [1]. - Overall, the terminal demand during the peak season needs to improve for the sector to rise again. Attention should also be paid to the boosting effect of strengthened policy expectations [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Sector - The intraday futures prices of the sector rose and then fell, and the night - session continued the oscillating and pressured trend, mainly due to the impact of the military parade on the supply - demand side of the industrial chain. After the parade, some enterprises resumed production, increasing the demand for furnace materials, especially for iron ore. The overall upward movement of the sector's prices requires the start of the replenishment logic under continuous demand improvement. The increasing expectation of a US interest rate cut may further boost the sector [1]. 2. Analysis of Different Elements and Products Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month, in line with expectations. The small - sample hot metal production decreased slightly, and steel enterprises are expected to resume production. This week, iron ore ports reduced inventory, the number of ships at berth increased, factory inventories decreased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The fundamentals support the price, and it is expected to oscillate in the future. The fundamentals of scrap steel have no prominent contradictions. The low profit of electric furnaces due to pressured finished - product prices and the tight supply lead to an expected short - term price oscillation [2]. Carbon Element - After the military parade, steel mills will enter the peak production season, and the demand will support the short - term price to remain oscillating. After the parade, coal mines will gradually resume production but are unlikely to reach the previous high. The upcoming peak demand season for downstream products still supports the coking coal price [2]. Alloys - Manganese ore and coke prices are weak, and the cost support for manganese silicon is insufficient. The market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still significant downward pressure on the price in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs. The current cost of ferrosilicon has some support, but the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [2]. Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but there are expectations for the peak season and policies. After the mid - stream reduces inventory, there may be another round of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline while oscillating [2][12]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern of soda ash remains unchanged. After the futures price declines, spot - futures trading volume increases slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [2][15]. 3. Analysis of Individual Varieties Steel - The spot market trading volume of steel is generally weak. Affected by the military parade, steel production and demand both decreased, and inventory continued to accumulate. The market is cautious about the peak - season demand. After the parade, the hot metal production may return to a high level, and attention should be paid to the replenishment demand during the peak season, which may support the futures price [7]. Iron Ore - The overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month, in line with expectations. The small - sample hot metal production decreased slightly, and steel enterprises are expected to resume production. The port inventory decreased, the number of ships at berth increased, factory inventories decreased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The fundamentals support the price, and it is expected to oscillate in the future [7]. Scrap Steel - The supply of scrap steel decreased this week. Due to the pressured finished - product prices, the electric - furnace profit is low, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in both electric furnaces and blast furnaces decreased. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory - available days are at a low level. The fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [9]. Coke - The expectation of the eighth round of price increases has basically failed, and the market sentiment is bearish. After the parade, steel mills will enter the peak production season, and the demand will support the short - term price to remain oscillating [9][11]. Coking Coal - After the military parade, coal mines will gradually resume production but are unlikely to reach the previous high. The upcoming peak demand season for downstream products still supports the coking coal price. Attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine resumption, and Mongolian coal imports [11][12]. Glass - The demand for glass is weak, but there are expectations for the peak season and policies. After the mid - stream reduces inventory, there may be another round of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline while oscillating [12]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern of soda ash remains unchanged. After the futures price declines, spot - futures trading volume increases slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [13][15]. Manganese Silicon - The prices of manganese ore and coke are weak, and the cost support for manganese silicon is insufficient. The market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still significant downward pressure on the price in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs [16]. Ferrosilicon - The current cost of ferrosilicon has some support, but the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each financial derivative, it gives a "neutral" outlook, indicating a "hold" or "neutral" stance on trading in these markets [6]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the stock index futures market has ebbed, with the All-A Index falling for two consecutive days, a significant reduction in trading volume, and multiple signs of weakening capital. It is recommended to shift to a barbell-style allocation and consider reducing positions [1][6]. - In the stock index options market, the equity market performed weakly. It is recommended to continue holding put options for defense [1][6]. - The bond market has returned to the stock-bond seesaw logic. If the stock market continues to adjust, the bullish sentiment in the bond market may further increase; otherwise, the bond market may give back its gains. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance of the stock market [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The All-A Index fell 1.19% for two consecutive days, with military, non-bank, and software sectors leading the decline. Trading volume shrank to around 2.4 trillion, and the number of falling stocks exceeded 4,000. There are multiple signs of weakening capital, such as the breaking of the China Securities Convertible Bond and Microcap Index, the widening of the discount of IC and IM, and the decline in the proportion of margin trading purchases [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions in IM + dividend style or hold half of the long positions in IM [6]. Stock Index Options - **Market Performance**: The equity market was weak, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.16%. The trading volume of each option variety decreased, the PCR of open interest continued to decline, and the implied volatility showed mixed trends [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold put options for defense [1][6]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: The bond market returned to the stock-bond seesaw logic. The stock market was weak, and the Shanghai Composite Index adjusted, which may have driven up risk aversion and bullish sentiment in the bond market. The open interest of the main contracts of each variety increased, especially the T and TL contracts [2][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The trend strategy is neutral. For hedging strategies, pay attention to short hedging at low basis levels. For basis strategies, pay attention to long-end arbitrage opportunities. For curve strategies, pay attention to steepening the yield curve [6][7]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic calendar shows data on the EU's unemployment rate, CPI, core CPI, PPI, and the US's ISM manufacturing PMI and ADP employment data from September 1 - 4, 2025 [9]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China held its second meeting, aiming to strengthen the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies and promote the stable and healthy development of the bond market [10]. - According to the China Passenger Car Association, from August 1 - 31, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.952 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3% and a month-on-month increase of 7%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 14.698 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9%. The wholesale volume of passenger car manufacturers was 2.409 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12% and a month-on-month increase of 8%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year reached 17.934 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12% [10]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not provided in the text [11][15][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On September 3, the spot gold price reached $3,560 per ounce, hitting a new historical high, and the spot silver price rose to $41 per ounce, a 14 - year high [2][4]. - Fed officials' speeches and economic data on Wednesday evening strengthened the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. The U.S. July JOLTs job openings dropped to 7.181 million, far lower than expected, and factory orders were - 1.3%, still in the contraction range, indicating weak economic momentum [4]. - Looking ahead, the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and political intervention risks will remain the core contradictions in the market. Technically, gold's next target is $3,900 - $4,000, and silver may challenge the historical high of $49 - $50 [4]. - The weekly range for London gold spot is [3350, 3600], and for London silver spot is [38, 42] [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Key Information - Trump called for "substantial" interest rate cuts from the Fed [3]. - The federal appellate court ruled that most of Trump's comprehensive tariff measures were illegal, and the tariff case may go to the Supreme Court [3]. - Russia expects to continue negotiations with Ukraine but requires recognition of "new territorial realities" and the establishment of a new security system [3]. Price Logic - The speeches of Fed officials and economic data on Wednesday evening strengthened the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. The decline in JOLTs job openings and the contraction of factory orders indicated a weakening economy, supporting the interest - rate cut expectation [4]. - The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and political intervention risks are the core contradictions in the market. Technically, gold has an upward target, and silver may reach a historical high. Attention should be paid to potential fluctuations [4]. Market Outlook - The weekly range for London gold spot is [3350, 3600], and for London silver spot is [38, 42] [4]. Index Information - On September 3, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index of the CITIC Futures Commodity Index increased by 0.17%, 0.29%, and 0.05% respectively [42]. - The precious metals index rose 0.90% on September 3, 2025, 4.26% in the past 5 days, 4.89% in the past month, and 29.14% since the beginning of the year [44].