Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural commodities: - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with an upward bias [1][5][6] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating with an upward bias [7][8] - **Corn**: Oscillating with an upward bias [8][9] - **Hogs**: Oscillating with a downward bias [10] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [11][12] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating with an upward bias [13] - **Cotton**: Oscillating with an upward bias [14] - **Sugar**: Oscillating [16][17] - **Pulp**: Oscillating with an upward bias [18][19] - **Double - Coated Paper**: Oscillating [19][21] - **Logs**: Oscillating [22] 2. Core Views - Geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East continue to impact the agricultural commodity market, leading to significant fluctuations in oils and fats, protein meal, and other products [1][5][7] - The supply and demand situation varies for different commodities, with some in a tight balance (e.g., corn) and others in a loose supply situation (e.g., hogs) [8][9][10] - The price trends of many commodities are closely related to factors such as crude oil prices, biodiesel policies, and geopolitical situations [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Geopolitical issues in the Middle East affect market expectations, and the price trend is highly correlated with the situation. In terms of fundamentals, there are concerns about the supply efficiency of Brazilian soybeans, which may lead to a tight supply of soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil production and exports in February were lower than expected, and the inventory was higher. Rapeseed is expected to be concentrated for arrival and processing from March to May, and domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to gradually increase [1][5][6] - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate with an upward bias. It is recommended to pay attention to the phased low - buying strategy [1][5][6] Protein Meal - **Logic**: The March supply - demand report was uneventful, and market attention shifted to the impact of the Middle East conflict. Geopolitical factors and the expected growth in biodiesel demand are the main drivers. In China, the rising premiums of US and Brazilian soybeans, concerns about import costs and delayed arrivals have boosted market sentiment, with funds flowing in to drive up the price of soybean meal [7][8] - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate with an upward bias. Attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation [7][8] Corn - **Logic**: The domestic corn price shows mixed trends. The supply pressure is limited as farmers have less remaining grain, and downstream enterprises have a certain demand for replenishment. The current supply - demand situation is tight, and the industry is in a state of high turnover [8][9] - **Outlook**: Oscillating with an upward bias. In March, the increase in spot prices is expected to narrow, and the long - term trend is bullish [8][9] Hogs - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply pressure is high as the breeding end did not complete the slaughter plan in February, and the planned daily slaughter volume in March has increased. The demand is in the off - season after the festival, and the inventory and weight of hogs are increasing. In the long term, the process of capacity reduction is not smooth [10] - **Outlook**: Oscillating with a downward bias in the short term. The industry is advised to consider short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year. The hog cycle is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [10] Natural Rubber - **Logic**: Affected by the positive commodity trading atmosphere, the price of natural rubber has increased. The short - term trading logic is related to the Middle East geopolitical situation. Although it has little impact on supply, it has a negative impact on downstream tire orders. The market sentiment is weakening, and there is a need for adjustment, but the decline is expected to be limited [11][12] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited variables, and the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [11][12] Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: Driven by the strong chemical industry atmosphere, BR has increased. The short - term trading logic has shifted to geopolitical factors. As long as crude oil remains strong, the market is likely to rise even though the fundamentals of BR are weak. The price of butadiene has increased sharply, which has supported the supply side [13] - **Outlook**: The market follows the sector sentiment. If crude oil continues to rise, the market will remain strong in the short term [13] Cotton - **Logic**: The increase in the price of Zhengzhou cotton may be due to capital rotation. The supply - demand situation of Chinese cotton in the 25/26 season is expected to be in a tight balance, and the commercial inventory is in the process of destocking. There is a possibility of a decrease in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, which provides a bullish driver. However, it is difficult to break through the previous high in the short term [14] - **Outlook**: Oscillating with an upward bias. It is recommended to consider long - term allocation on dips [14] Sugar - **Logic**: In the long term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus supply. In the short term, the price is affected by the oil price fluctuations caused by the Middle East conflict. High oil prices may lead to a decrease in the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new season, which in turn affects the global sugar supply [16][17] - **Outlook**: Oscillating. The price range of the domestic market can be moderately widened to 5100 - 5500 yuan/ton [16][17] Pulp - **Logic**: The pulp market is still in a weak state, with weak current demand but a seasonal expectation of improvement. The supply side has both positive and negative factors, with the US dollar price of broad - leaf pulp being positive and the high overseas inventory of coniferous pulp being negative. The market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [18] - **Outlook**: Oscillating with an upward bias. It is recommended to consider long - term allocation at the low end of the range after the festival [18][19] Double - Coated Paper - **Logic**: The market has no clear driver in the short term, with supply pressure due to the resumption of some shutdown production lines and weak downstream demand. In the 3 - 4 month period, the market is expected to see both supply and demand increase, with prices rising first and then falling in the 3 - 5 month period [19][21] - **Outlook**: Oscillating. It is recommended to operate within the range of 4000 - 4400 yuan/ton [19][21] Logs - **Logic**: The market has no clear fundamental driver. Geopolitical factors have increased the cost, driving up the spot and futures prices. However, the domestic demand has not shown strong resilience after the festival. The arrival of a large number of logs from March to April may put pressure on the price [22] - **Outlook**: Oscillating. It is recommended to operate within the range of 780 - 820 yuan/cubic meter for the short - term main contract [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report downgrades the previous overweight rating of stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals to equal - weight in the short term, and relatively recommends allocating TS and TF [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - For the expectation of US dollar monetary policy, it's important to judge the stage of the current geopolitical conflict, as it affects the market's judgment on inflation and the economy. The Fed will react when long - term inflation expectations change. It's too early to discuss the duration of the war, and a neutral scenario is recommended as the benchmark for asset allocation. In the short term, it's advisable to manage the positions of risk assets such as equities and commodities [1] - After the release of the "Report", the market's policy expectation of the government's active efforts in the first half of the year to support the economic start of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will gradually converge, and then shift to the verification stage of real data [1] - Stock indices may enter a period of shock adjustment due to the convergence of policy boost expectations and overseas event impacts. Non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by the unfalsifiable expectation of tightened monetary conditions. Investors are advised to pay attention to the development of geopolitical events and the verification of domestic economic data before re - evaluating asset cost - effectiveness and portfolio construction strategies [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance - **Domestic Commodity Futures Market**: Most domestic commodity futures closed lower. Shipping futures led the decline, with the Container Shipping Index (European Line) down 13.92%. All energy products fell, with crude oil down 10.76%. Most chemical products declined, with ethylene glycol down 5.26%. Most black - series products dropped, with coke down 4.49%. All non - metallic building materials decreased, with glass down 4.44%. All oilseeds and oils declined, with soybean oil down 3.14%. All agricultural and sideline products fell, with logs down 2.28%. Most new - energy materials declined, with industrial silicon down 1.88%. Precious metals led the gains, with Shanghai silver up 7.11%. Most base metals rose, with Shanghai tin up 2.24% [1] - **Financial Market**: On March 10, 2026, stock index futures generally rose, with CSI 300 futures up 1.35%, SSE 50 futures up 0.63%, CSI 500 futures up 1.46%, and CSI 1000 futures up 1.53%. Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance, with 2 - year Treasury bond futures up 0.01%, 5 - year Treasury bond futures unchanged, 10 - year Treasury bond futures down 0.01%, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures up 0.01%. The US dollar index was down 0.24% [7] - **Industry Index**: On March 10, 2026, among the CITIC industry indices, industries such as national defense and military industry, machinery, and electronics rose, while industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals and coal declined [8][9] - **Overseas Commodities**: On March 9, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was down 6.4%, ICE Brent crude oil was down 3.13%, COMEX gold was down 0.19%, and COMEX silver was up 3.6% [10][11] - **Domestic Main Commodities**: On March 10, 2026, shipping futures such as the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined significantly, precious metals such as gold and silver rose, and most energy - chemical products such as crude oil and methanol fell [12][13][14] 3.2 Asset Views by Sector - **Financial**: Stock index futures and options are affected by risk factors and are in a state of shock. The market is waiting and observing. The focus is on incremental funds and AI enterprise credit risks. Treasury bond futures are affected by how fiscal policy will be implemented this year and are in a state of shock. Gold and silver are affected by rising inflation expectations suppressing interest - rate cut expectations and are in a state of shock. The focus is on US fundamental data, Fed monetary policy, and the geopolitical situation [4] - **Shipping**: The Container Shipping Index (European Line) is affected by geopolitical conflicts and shipping companies' price - holding, and is in a state of weak shock. The focus is on the progress of geopolitical events, ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the situation in the Middle East, and the opening of the spot market [4] - **Black Building Materials**: The prices of black - building materials such as steel, iron ore, and coke are affected by factors such as cost support, supply and demand, and geopolitical risks, and are in a state of shock [4] - **Non - ferrous and New Materials**: The prices of non - ferrous metals and new materials such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are affected by factors such as oil price fluctuations, supply and demand, and geopolitical risks, and are in a state of wide - range shock [4] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Energy - chemical products such as crude oil, LPG, and methanol are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, oil price fluctuations, and supply and demand, and are in a state of high - volatility shock [4][5] - **Agriculture**: Agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and livestock are affected by factors such as the situation in the Middle East, oil price fluctuations, and supply and demand, and are in a state of shock [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector continues to experience high volatility. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, have a significant impact on the oil and chemical markets. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, and investors are advised to adopt a volatile mindset [2]. - Crude oil and oil products' volatility has increased, which is conducive to the repair of chemical valuations. The decline of chemical futures on the night of March 10 was significantly less than that of crude oil futures. The supply reduction in the chemical industry chain caused by the Middle East situation is expected to gradually appear in about a month [2]. - Overall, the energy and chemical sector is expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern, with each product showing different trends and influencing factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances lead to sharp price fluctuations. The situation in the US - Iran conflict and the passage prospects of the Strait of Hormuz are still in a state of expected swing. In the short - term, the price is expected to be volatile and strong, waiting for the situation to become clearer [6]. - **Asphalt**: The futures price has fallen from a high level. The market is focused on geopolitical developments. The profit of asphalt refineries has deteriorated rapidly, and the inventory is accumulating. The long - term valuation is expected to decline, and it is expected to be volatile [7]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors are still the core. The price is volatile and likely to rise. Once the US and Iran reach an agreement, it may have a significant negative impact. In the long - term, the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation in the Middle East is gradually being replaced, which is a long - term negative factor [7]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the decline of crude oil. Although it faces some negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution, its current valuation is low, and it is expected to be volatile [9]. - **PX**: The price has significantly declined due to cost factors, but the supply is gradually being affected by the Strait blockade. In the short - term, it is in a tight pattern, and the price is expected to be volatile. The mid - term logic of buying on dips remains [11]. - **PTA**: It follows the wide - range fluctuations of upstream costs. The basis remains relatively stable, and it is expected to be volatile in the short - term [12]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is expected to be volatile and strong. The supply side may see production cuts by some enterprises, and the downstream industry's profit has improved [14]. - **Styrene**: It is expected to be volatile and strong. The supply side may have more production cuts and maintenance, and the export has increased. It may return to the de - stocking stage in March [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The high - level increase is blocked. It follows the cost and market sentiment to fluctuate. In the short - term, it is expected to be in a wide - range consolidation [18]. - **Short - Fiber**: The market is re - positioning, waiting for the downstream market to digest. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and the processing fee has certain support [19]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The price follows the cost to decline, and the trading atmosphere has improved. The absolute price follows the raw materials to fluctuate, and the support for the processing fee has increased [20]. - **Methanol**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The geopolitical conflict is still uncertain, and the market tends to trade the geopolitical premium [23]. - **Urea**: After the market sentiment fades, it oscillates and consolidates. The supply is stable at a high level, and the demand has both supporting and weakening factors [24]. - **LLDPE**: The price has fallen. It is affected by the decline in oil prices and geopolitical factors. In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile [26]. - **PP**: The price has declined. It is affected by oil prices and geopolitical factors. The refinery's profit has different performances, and it is expected to be volatile in the short - term [27]. - **PL**: The price has adjusted. The market has returned to rationality, and the short - term profit of the powder material has been compressed. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term [28]. - **PVC**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and it should be treated with caution. The supply may be reduced, the export has improved, and it is expected to be volatile [30]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has difficulty rising, and it is temporarily oscillating. Geopolitical factors may lead to a reduction in chlorine - alkali supply, and the export has improved [31]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different changes in inter - period spreads. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 4.59 with a change of - 0.65 dollars/barrel, and the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is - 700 with a change of - 92 yuan/ton [33]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has its own basis and warehouse receipt situation. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 26 yuan/ton with a change of - 121 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt is 78750 tons [34]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also different changes in inter - variety spreads. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 285 with a change of - 91 yuan/ton [35]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: The report lists the basis and spread monitoring of various chemical products, but specific data summaries are not provided in the text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical risks in the stock index futures market have eased, and risk appetite has marginally recovered. The market opened higher and moved higher, with strong capital offensive willingness. Technology stocks performed strongly, and the ChiNext Index led the rise by 3.04%, while the Science and Technology Innovation Comprehensive Index rose by 3.02%. It is advisable to turn positive in operation and semi - hold IM contracts with high elasticity and high technology proportion [1][6]. - In the stock index options market, it is recommended to continue holding call options for defense. Although the market sentiment is warm, considering the deep market fluctuations and the fact that the options market is trading volatility rather than just direction, call options should be held to protect the overall portfolio from systematic risks [2][6]. - The bond market has recovered. The performance of the main contracts of treasury bond futures was differentiated. The inter - bank bond market rebounded moderately, but the 30 - year treasury bond was relatively weak. The market may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the strategy may focus on arbitrage, paying attention to the convergence opportunity of the 30 - 10Y treasury bond term spread [3][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **View**: Geopolitical risks have eased, and risk appetite has marginally recovered [1][6]. - **Logic**: Trump said the geopolitical conflict would end "soon", and the G7 meeting proposed measures to stabilize energy prices, which promoted the TACO trading and the rapid recovery of global risk appetite. Geopolitical risk mitigation led to the continued decline of energy, oil and gas, and coal, while technology stocks were strong. Multiple local governments issued incentive policies to encourage the local deployment of OpenClaw, driving the market enthusiasm and the spread of funds to hardware sectors such as semiconductors and chips [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Semi - hold IM contracts [6]. 3.2 Stock Index Options - **View**: Continue to hold call options for defense [2][6]. - **Logic**: The equity index was strong, but the trading volume of options decreased significantly. The option sentiment indicator (PCR) strengthened, and the implied volatility declined naturally, indicating warm market sentiment. However, due to the deep market fluctuations and the options market trading volatility, call options should be held for defense [2][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold call options for defense [6][7]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **View**: The bond market has recovered [3][7]. - **Logic**: The performance of the main contracts of treasury bond futures was differentiated. The inter - bank bond market rebounded moderately, but the 30 - year treasury bond was relatively weak. The uncertainties of the Middle East geopolitical situation, inflation trends, and the redemption pressure of fixed - income products are the three major risk variables. The inter - bank market funds are stable, and the central bank conducts small - scale net investment operations. As the tax period approaches, the central bank will increase the scale of reverse repurchase operations. If the Middle East situation disturbs and oil prices rise beyond expectations, inflation concerns may continue to disturb the bond market [3][7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: oscillate. Hedging strategy: pay attention to short - hedging at the low basis. Basis strategy: pay attention to the long - end positive arbitrage opportunity. Curve strategy: pay attention to the flattening of the 30Y - 10Y in the short term [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Platinum: Amidst the geopolitical issues that continue to disrupt the market, platinum prices are expected to oscillate. In the short - term, due to the interplay of multiple factors, the price lacks a clear driving force. In the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar index is beneficial for the release of platinum price elasticity, with an outlook of a moderately upward trend [2]. - Palladium: The supply of palladium remains uncertain, and the demand faces structural pressure. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation tends to ease, but in the short - term, supply disruptions still exist. Currently, it mainly follows the overall fluctuations of the precious metals sector, with an outlook of a moderately upward trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On March 10, 2026, the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 4.26% to 562.55 yuan/gram, and the palladium main contract rose 4.02% to 423.55 yuan/gram [1]. Platinum Analysis - **Main Logic**: In the short - term, the US - Iran conflict provides support for precious metal prices, but high oil prices and delayed Fed rate - cut expectations suppress platinum prices. The US February non - farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 92,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. In the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar index is favorable for platinum prices, but the US - Iran conflict also has an impact [2]. - **Outlook**: Moderately upward. The fundamental resilience and the weakening of the US dollar credit support this view [2]. Palladium Analysis - **Main Logic**: The supply of palladium remains uncertain. The US imposed anti - dumping duties on Russian palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions. The demand side faces structural pressure. Overall, the long - term supply - demand is loosening, and short - term supply disruptions exist, mainly following the overall precious metals market [3]. - **Outlook**: Moderately upward. The shortage of physical palladium and the weakening of the US dollar credit support this view [3]. Index Information - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2572.74, down 0.45%; the commodity 20 index was 2930.42, down 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2509.90, down 0.69% [50]. - **Sector Index**: On March 10, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index had a daily increase of 0.25%, a 5 - day increase of 0.31%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.05%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.82% [52].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-03-11 地缘⻛险溢价回吐，盘⾯存在调整压⼒ 4. 玻璃纯碱：玻璃供应仍有扰动预期，但中游下游库存中性偏高， 基本面来看当前供需仍旧过剩，若产销不能持续好转，则高库存始终 压制价格。纯碱供应短期高位稳定，整体供需仍旧过剩，预计短期以 震荡为主，长期来看供给过剩格局进一步加剧，价格中枢仍将下行， 地缘⻛险溢价回吐，能源相关品种估值⾼位回调，叠加淡季现实乏善 可陈，钢材库存⽭盾仍存，铁矿⽯⾼库存压⼒难以缓解，蒙煤进⼝数 量⾼企，玻纯供需过剩未改，合⾦基本⾯⽀撑不⾜，且旺季预期仍偏 谨慎，盘⾯价格⾃⾼位有所回落。 地缘风险溢价回吐，能源相关品种估值高位回调，叠加淡季现实乏善 可陈，钢材库存矛盾仍存，铁矿石高库存压力难以缓解，蒙煤进口数 量高企，玻纯供需过剩未改，合金基本面支撑不足，且旺季预期仍偏 谨慎，盘面价格自高位有所回落。 1. 铁元素方面：供应端发运恢复但仍存扰动预期，高库存压力短期 难以缓解，两会召开叠加地缘政治扰动较多，宏观仍存不确定性，近 期商品表现偏强，若宏观扰动弱化则铁矿基本面压力仍较大，铁矿预 计震荡偏弱。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-3-11 油价回落缓和通胀担忧，贵⾦属集体上 涨 黄金观点：短期或震荡运行，关注霍尔木兹海峡局势及后续滞胀交易 切换的潜在驱动 逻辑：万得数据显示，日内海内外金价均震荡上涨，COMEX黄金涨幅 超2%、突破5230美元/盎司，SHFE黄金涨幅超1%、站上1150元/千克； 主要受日内油价大幅下跌使得通胀担忧缓和、以及美元涨势暂缓等提 振。中东冲突已进入第11天，据中国新闻网和北京青年报报道，当地 时间3月9日，特朗普称他将取消一些与石油相关的制裁、以平抑油 价；并称若时机成熟，美国海军将在霍尔木兹海峡护航。同日，七国 集团财长发表声明称，各方已准备好采取必要措施，包括通过释放储 备等方式支持全球能源供应。 展望：短期黄金或呈区间震荡，需关注霍尔木兹海峡复航情况、外围 股市走向、3月11日美国2月CPI数据、3月13日美国PCE数据以及3月 17-18日联储议息会议决议等。长期我们对黄金趋势维持乐观，美元 信用弱化主线未改；若后续市场转向滞胀交易，将为金价带来阶段性 上行催化。 白银观点：或维持区间震荡运行，关注美伊冲突进展 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 10, 2026, equity index futures rose, while most commodities declined, with energy & chemicals and agricultural products falling across the board [2][9]. - China's imports and exports in RMB terms rose 17.1% and 19.2% YoY respectively in Jan - Feb 2026, showing continued steady improvement and strong resilience [34]. - Trump said he will lift some sanctions to stabilize international oil prices, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that Iran will decide when the war ends [1][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On March 10, equity index futures (IM and IC) rose 1.6%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Silver (up 7.1% with open interest decreasing 5.8% month - on - month), Platinum (up 4.3% with open interest decreasing 0.9% month - on - month), and Lithium Carbonate (up 4.2% with open interest increasing 0.6% month - on - month). The top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (down 13.9% with open interest decreasing 10.9% month - on - month), Crude Oil (down 10.8% with open interest decreasing 13.3% month - on - month), and Methanol (down 7.6% with open interest decreasing 16.2% month - on - month) [9][10][11]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Gold**: On March 10, the Gold main contract rose 0.8% to 1150.0 yuan/g (SHFE). Short - term may operate in a range - bound manner. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East persist, and China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for the 16th consecutive month. Long - term trend is optimistic as the weakening of U.S. dollar credibility remains unchanged [15][16][17]. - **Silver**: On March 10, the main contract of Silver rose 7.1% to 22758 yuan/kg (SHFE). It may remain range - bound, and the gold - silver ratio is likely to strengthen in oscillations in the short term. Short - term macro drivers are under pressure, and its own spot fundamentals are softening. Long - term trend is expected to align with gold [21][22][23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On March 10, the main contract of Lithium Carbonate rose 4.2% to 163000 yuan/ton (GFEX). Energy price increase expectations boost energy storage demand. In March, the fundamental outlook is strong, but downstream performance needs to be observed. Expect prices to stay range - bound [27][28][29]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - China's imports and exports in RMB terms rose 17.1% and 19.2% YoY respectively in Jan - Feb 2026, with total trade hitting 7.73 trillion yuan [34]. - Trump will lift some oil - related sanctions to stabilize oil prices, and the military operation against Iran will end "soon" but "not" this week [34]. - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that Iran will decide when the war ends [34]. - Israel launched an air strike on Iran's capital Tehran on March 10th, targeting local nuclear laboratories [34]. 3.2.2 Trading News - Multiple exchanges adjusted price limits, trading margin ratios, trading fee standards, and minimum opening & closing order sizes for various futures contracts on March 10, 2026 [35][39][41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of double粕 (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) and oils followed the decline of crude oil, and the development of the Middle - East situation remains the dominant factor. The prices of these products are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the development of the Middle - East situation [1][5][6]. - Corn experienced a high - level correction due to macro - emotional disturbances. In the short term, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, and in the medium - term, it is generally bullish [6][7]. - The supply of live pigs remains loose, and the price is weak. In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile and weak, and in the long - term, the price may bottom out and pick up in the second half of 2026 [8]. - Natural rubber rebounded slightly after the expected easing of the Middle - East situation. The market is expected to be volatile [9][11]. - Synthetic rubber's fluctuations follow the oil price and showed a correction. If the crude oil price continues to rise, the market will be short - term strong, but attention should be paid to the rapid change of geopolitical sentiment [12]. - Cotton continued to fluctuate slightly, waiting for new news. In the medium - and long - term, it is recommended to allocate more [12]. - Sugar prices fluctuated due to the sharp short - term fluctuations of oil prices. The market is expected to be volatile [13][14]. - Pulp futures continued to decline, and the relative weakness remained unchanged. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [15]. - Double - gum paper fluctuated as commodities corrected. The market is expected to show a trend of rising first and then falling from March to May [16][17]. - Logs' prices were under pressure as the geopolitical situation cooled. The market is expected to be volatile [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils - **View**: Oils followed the crude oil to adjust and consolidate. - **Logic**: Due to the US President's remarks on the Middle - East geopolitical issue, the market expects the war situation to ease, and the crude oil price dropped rapidly, affecting the vegetable oil price. The fundamentals of the vegetable oil market are related to the Middle - East situation. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil in February 2026 were lower than expected, and the inventory was higher than expected. The market should continue to pay attention to the USDA report, the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, and Indonesia's biodiesel policy adjustment. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the phased low - level buying strategy [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Double粕 followed the crude oil to decline, and the development of the Middle - East situation remains the dominant factor. - **Logic**: Internationally, the market's concern about the risk of the Strait of Hormuz interruption has decreased, and the crude oil price has fallen. The adjustment of the USDA's March supply - demand report is expected to be limited. The progress of China's policy - based procurement before Trump's visit to China at the end of the month and the announcement of the US biodiesel details this month may limit the decline of US soybeans. Domestically, affected by the weakening of the external crude oil price and US soybean futures price, the import cost has decreased, and the market sentiment has cooled. The follow - up trend still needs to pay attention to the evolution of the Middle - East situation and whether the imported soybeans will be resold. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile [1][5][6]. 3.1.3 Corn - **View**: Affected by macro - emotional disturbances, corn experienced a high - level correction. - **Logic**: Most commodities declined today. Affected by macro - funds and emotions, corn also corrected. In terms of fundamentals, the upstream grain sales progress is 68%. In March, with the warming of the temperature, the wet grain supply increased, but the supply pressure is limited. The downstream deep - processing and feed enterprises have a demand for replenishing inventory. The supply increase is slower than the demand for replenishment, and the industry is in a tight and high - turnover state. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. In March, the wet grain is expected to increase gradually, and the spot price increase is expected to narrow. In the medium - term, based on the tight annual balance sheet, corn is generally bullish [6][7]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - **View**: The supply remains loose, and the price is weak. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the breeding end did not complete the slaughter plan in February, and the daily planned slaughter volume in March increased. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is still large. In the long - term, the process of reducing production capacity is not smooth. The demand is in the off - season after the festival, the pig - meat price ratio and the fat - lean price difference have declined, and the average weight of pigs and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens have increased. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be volatile and weak. In the first half of the year, the industry is recommended to pay attention to the hedging opportunity of short - selling at high prices. It is expected that the pig cycle will bottom out and pick up in the second half of 2026 [8]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: After the expected easing of the Middle - East situation, natural rubber rebounded slightly. - **Logic**: The short - term trading logic is still related to the Middle - East geopolitics. Although it has little impact on the supply of this variety, the tire orders to the Middle - East are affected, which is negative for the price. The market sentiment is weak, and it is difficult to rise further in the short - term. The fundamentals are difficult to show positive factors. However, due to the warm market expectation, the decline range is limited. The inventory pressure is large, but it is about to enter the low - production period, and the downstream demand remains, so the price is easy to rise and difficult to fall. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals change little, and the market is expected to be volatile [9][11]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The fluctuations follow the oil price, and it showed a correction yesterday. - **Logic**: Affected by the decline of crude oil, the price of BR (butadiene rubber) declined. The short - term trading logic has switched to geopolitics. As long as the crude oil remains strong, even if the fundamentals of BR are weak, the downstream has shown signs of negative feedback after the sharp rise of butadiene, and the BR has a premium over NR again, the price is easy to rise and difficult to fall. The price of butadiene rose sharply last week due to geopolitical factors, and the supply - side support of the butadiene market has strengthened. - **Outlook**: The market follows the sector sentiment. If the crude oil price continues to rise, the market will be short - term strong, but attention should be paid to the rapid change of geopolitical sentiment [12]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: It continued to fluctuate slightly, waiting for new news. - **Logic**: The market entered a consolidation period last week. On the one hand, the bullish factors in the cotton market were fully traded in the first week after the Spring Festival, and there is no new driving force. On the other hand, affected by the conflict between the US and Iran, funds flowed into hot varieties, and the cotton price lacked the driving force to rise. The domestic cotton commercial inventory is in the de - stocking period, and the fundamentals are good, which supports the cotton price. The overseas supply and demand are loose this year, and it is expected to improve next year. The external market has room for upward movement in the long - term. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. It is recommended to allocate more in the medium - and long - term [12]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: The sharp short - term fluctuations of oil prices drove the sugar price to fluctuate. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the internal and external sugar prices are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. In the short - term, affected by the large fluctuations of oil prices, the market may fluctuate, but it is difficult to reverse the oversupply pattern. The global sugar market is expected to have an oversupply in the 25/26 crushing season, and the main producing countries are expected to increase production. If the oil price continues to rise significantly, it may lead to a decrease in the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season, which will tighten the sugar supply and push up the sugar price. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be volatile. The price range of the domestic market can be moderately widened to 5100 - 5500 yuan/ton [13][14]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The futures continued to decline, and the relative weakness remained unchanged. - **Logic**: The pulp futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and the fluctuations were mainly affected by the transmission of crude oil fluctuations. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current situation is weak, but the seasonal expectation is getting stronger. The demand in the industrial chain is not strong, and the trading volume is average during the price increase. In the future, the demand is expected to improve seasonally. The supply of broad - leaf pulp has a positive impact on the overall pulp price, but the high overseas inventory of coniferous pulp and the flat import price have a negative impact on the pulp futures. Overall, the new changes in supply and demand tend to strengthen the positive impact of demand, but the long - term pressure is still large. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The expectation of marginal improvement in demand forms a positive factor, and the pulp market will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend within the range [15]. 3.1.10 Double - Gum Paper - **View**: As commodities corrected, double - gum paper fluctuated. - **Logic**: On March 10, 2026, the market price of double - gum paper in Shandong was stable. Yesterday, the commodity sentiment corrected, and the pulp and double - gum paper followed the weak trend, with no clear short - term driving force. The supply pressure of double - gum paper still exists, the downstream demand is weak, and the industry is waiting and seeing. The downstream paper enterprises have a strong intention to raise prices after the festival, and the spot price in Shandong has increased slightly. The paper enterprises' quotations at the beginning of the month have been partially raised, but the actual transactions are mostly stable. From March to April, the supply and demand of the double - gum paper market are expected to increase. In May, the price may decline due to the negotiation behavior of publishers and the lack of social orders. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be volatile. After the festival, the supply and demand are expected to increase. The paper mills' quotations have been raised at the beginning of the month, and the short - term market will fluctuate within the range [16][17]. 3.1.11 Logs - **View**: As the geopolitical situation cooled, the market was under pressure. - **Logic**: On March 10, 2026, the price of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu was stable. Recently, the log market was affected by geopolitics, and the cost increase drove the spot and market prices to rise. But the fundamentals changed little. After the geopolitical conflict eased, the market showed a correction trend. The overseas quotation is expected to remain strong. The key points are the pressure on the domestic spot price after a large number of radiata pine arrives in March and April, and the geopolitical risks such as freight and US dollar exchange rate changes. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be volatile. The increase in overseas quotations drives up the domestic spot price, and the support below is strong. But due to the repeated geopolitical disturbances, the log market will maintain a range - bound operation [19]. 3.2 Commodity Index - On March 10, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2572.74, a decrease of 0.45%; the commodity 20 index was 2930.42, a decrease of 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2509.90, a decrease of 0.69%. The agricultural products index was 968.25, with a daily decline of 1.33%, a 5 - day increase of 2.03%, a 1 - month increase of 3.36%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.77% [182][184].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Oil price fluctuations dominate the market, and base metals continue to fluctuate. The Fed's rate - cut expectations are dimmed, and the mid - line driving force is challenged again in the short term. The raw material end remains tight, and the smelting end has disturbance expectations. The terminal is weak, but consumption is gradually shifting to the traditional peak season, and price drops may boost consumption. If oil prices continue to rise, base metals will be suppressed, but high - energy - consuming varieties such as aluminum will benefit. If oil prices fall, base metals may rebound. In the medium term, the duration of the US - Iran war and oil price trends need to be monitored [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Outlook Copper - **View**: The US dollar index rebounds, and copper prices continue to fluctuate. Macro factors such as rising energy prices and a stronger US dollar index put pressure on copper prices. The supply of copper ore is tight, and the supply of refined copper is expected to shrink. Terminal demand is weak, and high inventories suppress copper prices. It is expected to fluctuate before inventory reduction [6]. Alumina - **View**: The weakening demand expectation competes with cost support, and alumina prices fluctuate widely. Macro sentiment amplifies market fluctuations. The supply contraction expectation is intensifying, but the actual supply contraction is insufficient. The demand expectation weakens, but cost support exists, so it is expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations [6][7]. Aluminum - **View**: Geopolitical uncertainties are high, and aluminum prices decline slightly. The US economic data is structurally differentiated, and the Middle - East geopolitical conflict is uncertain. The domestic production capacity is stable, and overseas supply is disturbed. The demand starts to recover slightly, and inventories continue to accumulate. It is expected to maintain a slightly stronger fluctuating trend in the short term, and the price center may rise in the medium term [8][9]. Aluminum Alloy - **View**: Cost support continues, and prices fluctuate slightly stronger. The cost of scrap aluminum is high, and the supply is tight. The supply is restricted by policies, and demand is mainly for rigid - demand restocking. Inventories are decreasing. It is expected to maintain a slightly stronger fluctuating trend in the short and medium terms [10]. Zinc - **View**: TC is still at a low level, and zinc prices fluctuate at a high level. Macro concerns about economic slowdown increase, but the conflict shows signs of easing. The supply of zinc ingots is increasing, and the demand is in the peak season but the terminal orders are limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term and may decline in the long term [11]. Lead - **View**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices fluctuate. The production of lead ingots is high, the demand of lead - acid battery enterprises is expected to recover, but the terminal demand is weak, and inventories may accumulate. It is expected to fluctuate [13][15]. Nickel - **View**: Policy and high inventory compete, and nickel prices fluctuate. The supply pressure eases slightly, but the inventory is still high. The Indonesian policy adjustment affects the market's balance expectation. It is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and the Indonesian policy needs to be continuously monitored [15][16]. Stainless Steel - **View**: The price of nickel - iron rises, and the stainless - steel market fluctuates. The cost is supported, the production is expected to increase in March, the terminal demand is cautious, and the inventory accumulates. It is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and the Indonesian policy needs to be continuously monitored [17][18]. Tin - **View**: There is no obvious driving force, and tin prices fluctuate. The supply in Wabang is expected to increase, the Indonesian production target is raised, and the supply in Congo (Kinshasa) is at high risk. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the demand is growing. It is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the long - term [18][19]. 2. Market Monitoring - **Commodity Index**: On March 10, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2572.74, down 0.45%; the commodity 20 index was 2930.42, down 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2509.90, down 0.69% [145]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On March 10, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2708.06, with a daily increase of 0.25%, a 5 - day increase of 0.31%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.05%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.82% [147].