Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 3, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose; most commodity futures fell, with lithium carbonate and SCFIS(Europe) dropping by over 3% [2][9][10][11] - Gold increased by 1.3% to 814.88 yuan/gram due to the U.S. Manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations; the next target price level for gold is seen at $3,900 - $4,000 [14][15][16] - Iron ore increased by 0.7% to 777 yuan/ton, with high demand, stable supply and inventory, and expected price fluctuations in the later market [19][21][22] - Crude oil increased by 0.7% to 493.2 yuan/barrel, with prices expected to fluctuate with a weak bias, and attention should be paid to short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine issue negotiations [26][27][28] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 3, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose; most commodity futures fell, with lithium carbonate and SCFIS(Europe) dropping by over 3% [9][10][11] - The top three gainers in China's commodity futures are egg (up 2.6% with open interest down 14.1% month - on - month), gold (up 1.3% with open interest up 2.7% month - on - month), and ethenylbenzene (up 1.0% with open interest down 6.1% month - on - month) [9][11] - The top three decliners in China's commodity futures are lithium carbonate (down 3.1% with open interest down 0.6% month - on - month), SCFIS(Europe) (down 3.0% with open interest down 4.1% month - on - month), and sodium hydroxide (down 2.7% with open interest up 4.8% month - on - month) [10][11] - In financial futures, IH and IC recorded relatively large declines of 1.3%, while TL saw a relatively large increase of 0.46% [10][11] 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Gold - On September 3, gold increased by 1.3% to 814.88 yuan/gram; the U.S. Manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations supported gold prices [14][16] - The next target price level for gold is seen at $3,900 - $4,000, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle and political intervention risk are core market contradictions [15][16] 1.2.2 Iron Ore - On September 3, iron ore increased by 0.7% to 777 yuan/ton; demand is high, supply and inventory are stable, and prices are expected to fluctuate later [19][21][22] - Overseas mine shipments and 45 - port arrivals increased month - on - month; Hebei steel plant maintenance may lead to a limited decline in pig iron production; post - parade demand may return to a high level [20][21][22] - This week, port inventory decreased, port congestion increased, plant inventory decreased, and total inventory declined slightly [21][22] 1.2.3 Crude Oil - On September 3, crude oil increased by 0.7% to 493.2 yuan/barrel; prices are expected to fluctuate with a weak bias, and short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine issue negotiations should be noted [26][28] - Concerns over U.S. - Venezuela conflicts and Trump's attitude towards Russia add to geopolitical premiums; OPEC+ production hikes bring supply pressure, and U.S. production resilience is evident [27][28] - Crude oil inventories face dual pressures from refinery operating rate decline and OPEC+ production increases, and the sustainability of the rebound is expected to be limited [27][28] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On the morning of September 3, the gathering marking the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War was held at Tian'anmen Square in Beijing [30] 2.2 Industry News - On September 2, Southbound capital recorded a net purchase of HKD 9.281 billion, pushing its annual net purchases beyond HKD 1 trillion, a new record; this year, the cumulative net investment in the Hong Kong stock market has approached HKD 4.7 trillion [31] - In August 2025, the number of newly opened A - share trading accounts was 2.65 million, a 165% year - on - year increase [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 2, most equity indices and CGB futures declined, while commodities showed mixed performance, with poly-silicon leading the gainers and lithium carbonate leading the losers [2][9][10][11]. - The anti-involution policy has significantly boosted the price of poly-silicon, but there is still pressure on the actual supply and demand, and it is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the policy [19][20]. - The price of silicon metal will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and if production resumption becomes concentrated, the price may come under pressure [23][26][27]. - A supply-demand gap in the domestic lithium carbonate market is gradually emerging, but the shortage is not significant, and it is necessary to be vigilant against extreme price movements caused by position liquidation [31][32][33]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 2, most equity indices and CGB futures declined. Among commodities, some rose while others fell, with poly-silicon leading the gainers and lithium carbonate leading the losers [9][10][11]. - The top three gainers were poly-silicon (up 4.0% with open interest down 3.0% month-on-month), SCFIS(Europe) (up 3.6% with open interest up 3.6% month-on-month), and LSFO (up 2.5% with open interest up 11.8% month-on-month) [9][11]. - The top three decliners were lithium carbonate (down 4.3% with open interest up 2.6% month-on-month), ethylene glycol (down 2.2% with open interest up 6.5% month-on-month), and IM (down 1.8% with open interest up 6.9% month-on-month) [10][11]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Poly-Silicon - On September 2, poly-silicon increased by 4.0% to 51875 yuan/ton. The anti-involution sentiment has heated up, leading to increased volatility in prices [15][20]. - On the macro front, six government departments held a joint symposium on the PV industry, and Reuters reported more information on the industry restructuring plan, boosting the anti-involution sentiment [16][20]. - On the supply side, the operating production capacity in Southwest China has improved with the arrival of the high-water season, and it is necessary to monitor the impact of the anti-involution policy on supply in the medium to long term [17][20]. - On the demand side, the growth rate of PV installed capacity from January to May increased significantly, but it has overdrawn the demand in the second half of the year, and there is a risk of weakening subsequent demand [18][20]. 1.2.2 Silicon Metal - On September 2, silicon metal increased by 1.1% to 8470 yuan/ton. The price will continue to fluctuate in the short term under the influence of macro sentiment and coal prices [23][26][27]. - On the supply side, the overall supply pressure is likely to continue rising, mainly from the northwest region, while the southwest region has limited new supply in the follow-up [24][26][27]. - On the demand side, there are signs of a certain improvement month-on-month, driven by the resumption of production by poly-silicon enterprises and a slight increase in the operating rate of organic silicon [25][27]. - In terms of inventory, recent changes have been small, but social inventory and futures warehouse receipts are expected to further accumulate as output recovers [26][27]. 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Lithium Carbonate - On September 2, lithium carbonate decreased by 4.3% to 72620 yuan/ton. The first wave of sentiment impact caused by the production suspension at the Jianxiawo Mine has ended, and the market has returned to the stage of gaming over mine production suspensions [29][32]. - Fundamentally, a supply-demand gap is gradually emerging, but the data is more lackluster than expected. The weekly output decreased slightly month-on-month, and the monthly output in August exceeded expectations, indicating accelerated supply release [30][33]. - Demand continues to grow, and September is about to enter the peak season, with expected month-on-month growth. Social inventories have decreased slightly, but warehouse receipts have been gradually recovering since August [30][33]. - Overall, the supply-demand gap is not significant, and it is necessary to be vigilant against extreme price movements caused by position liquidation and mainly adopt range-bound trading strategies [32][33]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On the morning of September 2, President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Mongolian President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh held the 7th China-Russia-Mongolia trilateral meeting of heads of state at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. President Xi put forward three proposals for advancing China-Russia-Mongolia cooperation [35][37]. - On the same morning, President Xi held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced a visa-free policy trial for Russian citizens holding ordinary passports from September 15, 2025, to September 14, 2026 [37]. 2.2 Industry News - On September 1, the margin balance of A-shares reached 2.28 trillion yuan, hitting a record high in the history of A-shares [38]. - Starting from September 10, 2025, SHFE will further expand the range of tradable products available to Qualified Foreign Investors, including bitumen futures contracts and fuel oil, bitumen, and woodpulp option contracts [38][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US macro - fundamentals are stable, but the political pressure on the Fed has pushed up market expectations of interest rate cuts. Although there are positive feedbacks on investment and consumption, there are still tail risks. Domestically, the market's expectation of corporate profit margins has improved, and recent real - estate policies in first - tier cities may boost transaction volume [7]. - In the short term, market volatility in China may increase. After important events, the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may rise. Overseas, liquidity will expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US macro - fundamentals are stable. The political pressure on the Fed has reached a new high, pushing up market interest - rate cut expectations. However, service inflation stickiness, tariff shocks, and concerns about the Fed's independence remain tail risks [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The market's expectation of corporate profit margins has improved. "Anti - involution" has promoted the improvement of mid - stream profits in July. In the real - estate market, first - tier cities have introduced demand - side policies, which may increase transaction volume but the sustainability needs to be observed [7]. - **Asset Views**: In China, short - term market volatility may increase at the beginning of September. After important events, the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets may rise. Overseas, liquidity will expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, supporting total demand recovery [7]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options will fluctuate, and treasury bond futures will also be in a shock state, still depending on the performance of the stock market [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are expected to rise in shock as the US interest - rate cut cycle may restart in September, but market risks need attention [8]. - **Shipping**: The freight rate of the European container shipping line may fluctuate as the peak season fades in the third quarter [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc., are expected to be in a shock state due to factors like inventory changes, policy influences, and supply - demand relationships [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Although the weak dollar supports non - ferrous metals, the weak demand also needs attention. Most varieties will be in a shock state, with zinc prices expected to fall in shock [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are expected to fall in shock, while most other chemical products will be in a shock state due to factors such as supply - demand relationships, new - capacity pressures, and cost changes [10]. - **Agriculture**: Most agricultural products, including grains, oils, and fibers, are expected to be in a shock state, waiting for further information such as field inspection results [10].

2025年8月打新策略环境与收益回顾 中信期货研究所 权益及期权策略组 研究员 康遵禹 从业资格号:F03090802 投资咨询号: Z0016853 要点: 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】669号 2025年9月3日 新股上市流通市值月度统计(亿元) ■主板 科创板 ■创业板 网网下申购报价数 询价机构数量(中位数) 0.08 г 600 L 1、打新规则:港交所启动大规模IPO机制改革。2025年8月4日,港股为平衡机构与散户的新股分配比例,做出了多项改革内 容,并正式实施,主要包括:1）要求发行人至少安排40%的新股配售给机构投资者,机构投资者可通过40%的建簿配售份额深 度参与新股定价;2)散户获配比率下降,以超额认购100倍新股为例,散户获配比例降至35%;3)根据市值分档设定初始公众 持股比例,其中H股初始公众持股比例从15%下降至10%;4）发行人上市至少25%为自由流通股,防止筹码过度集中。 2、市场环境:短期新股数量较少,收益稀薄。8月共计有三支新股在主板和双创板上市,总计市值不到100亿元。打新中签 率和网下机构申报数量相比今年上半年明显减少，主要是因为两只涉及创业板,询价机构数 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-9-3 九月出栏继续增加，猪价压力持续 油脂：短期或继续震荡调整，等待进一步信息指引 蛋白粕：关注下沿支撑，盘面料延续区间震荡 玉米/淀粉：贸易商提前布局囤货，情绪不易过度悲观 生猪：9月出栏继续增加，猪价压力持续 橡胶：胶价上行驱动有限，但下方支撑偏强 合成橡胶：盘面维持区间震荡 纸浆：现货成交清淡，纸浆期货核心驱动难定 棉花：棉价震荡整理，关注收购价 白糖：供应压力边际增大，糖价偏弱运行 原木：弱现实与旺季预期博弈 【异动品种】 ⽣猪观点：9⽉出栏继续增加，猪价压⼒持续 逻辑：（1）供应：短期，9月计划出栏量预计保持环增趋势，猪源供应整 体充裕。中期，2025年上半年全国能繁母猪产能尚在高位波动，并且1月~ 7月新生仔猪数量持续环比增加，按照仔猪→商品猪6个月出栏时间推算， 预计下半年生猪出栏呈增量趋势，周期仍受供应压制。长期，7月"反内 卷"政策引导生猪产业"降重+减产"，农业部、发改委、中畜协开会落 实政策精神，8月农业部继续表示"持续推进生猪产能综合调控"。但是 当前生猪养殖尚有利润，主动减产存在阻力，7月钢联、涌 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Oscillating [7] - Alumina: Oscillating weakly [8] - Aluminum: Oscillating [10] - Aluminum alloy: Oscillating [13] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [16] - Lead: Oscillating [17] - Nickel: Oscillating strongly in the short - term, waiting - and - seeing in the long - term [23] - Stainless steel: Oscillating in the short - term [24] - Tin: Oscillating [25] 2. Report's Core View - Overall non - ferrous metals: Weak US dollar and the fermentation of reverse invoicing issues are driving up the prices of basic metals. In the medium and short - term, prices are supported but the weak terminal demand limits the upside. In the long - term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions support prices [1]. - Copper: Macro factors and supply disruptions support prices, and low inventory also provides support, but the US copper tariff is a negative factor [7]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are weak, with strong inventory accumulation trends, but short - term supply fluctuations and long - term mine disturbances need attention [9]. - Aluminum: Short - term macro sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals are neutral. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and inventory and consumption need to be observed [12]. - Aluminum alloy: The cost is supported, supply is reduced, demand is rigid, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [13]. - Zinc: The fundamentals are in surplus, and prices may oscillate weakly in the long - term [16]. - Lead: Supply and demand are basically balanced this week, but the release of smelter inventory after the events may pressure prices, and the price is expected to oscillate [19]. - Nickel: The market expects Indonesia's RKAB approval soon, so the price is oscillating strongly in the short - term, and the industry needs to observe the raw material and macro factors [23]. - Stainless steel: The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the implementation of the peak season and inventory changes need attention [24]. - Tin: The supply is tight, providing a strong bottom support, but the terminal demand is weakening, so the price is expected to oscillate [25]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - Information analysis: The Fed may cut interest rates, US GDP growth is better than expected, copper production has decreased, the spot premium has declined, and inventory has increased [7]. - Main logic: Macro factors and supply disruptions support copper prices, and low inventory also provides support, but the demand needs to be observed [7]. - Outlook: Copper may oscillate [8]. 3.2 Alumina - Information analysis: Spot prices have declined, some enterprises have reduced production due to environmental protection, and warehouse receipts have increased [8]. - Main logic: The fundamentals are weak, with strong inventory accumulation trends, but short - term supply fluctuations and long - term mine disturbances need attention [9]. - Outlook: Oscillating weakly, with opportunities for short - selling and reverse arbitrage [11]. 3.3 Aluminum - Information analysis: The price and inventory of aluminum have changed, an Indonesian enterprise is expected to be put into production, and the performance of related listed companies has been released [10]. - Main logic: Short - term macro sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals are neutral. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and inventory and consumption need to be observed [12]. - Outlook: The aluminum price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [12]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - Information analysis: The price and spread of aluminum alloy have changed, the exchange has adjusted margins and price limits, and the performance of related listed companies has been released [13]. - Main logic: The cost is supported, supply is reduced, demand is rigid, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [13]. - Outlook: Short - term prices are oscillating at a low level, and there is room for recovery and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [15]. 3.5 Zinc - Information analysis: The spot discount and inventory of zinc have increased, and a smelter will conduct maintenance [15]. - Main logic: The fundamentals are in surplus, and prices may oscillate weakly in the long - term [16]. - Outlook: Zinc prices may oscillate weakly in the long - term [16]. 3.6 Lead - Information analysis: The price, spread, and inventory of lead have changed, and the market transaction is light [16]. - Main logic: Supply and demand are basically balanced this week, but the release of smelter inventory after the events may pressure prices, and the price is expected to oscillate [19]. - Outlook: The lead price is expected to oscillate [19]. 3.7 Nickel - Information analysis: The inventory of nickel has increased, and there are many industry news items [19]. - Main logic: The market sentiment dominates the price, the industry fundamentals are weakening marginally, and short - term trading is recommended [23]. - Outlook: The nickel price is oscillating strongly in the short - term, and waiting - and - seeing in the long - term [23]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - Information analysis: The inventory of stainless steel warehouse receipts has increased, and the production in Indonesia is normal [24]. - Main logic: The prices of nickel - iron and chromium - iron have changed, production has increased, and inventory has decreased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [24]. - Outlook: The stainless steel price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [24]. 3.9 Tin - Information analysis: The inventory and price of tin have changed, and a company will conduct maintenance [25]. - Main logic: The supply is tight, providing a strong bottom support, but the terminal demand is weakening, so the price is expected to oscillate [25]. - Outlook: The tin price is expected to oscillate, and the volatility may increase [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, individual product outlooks are given, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", "oscillating strongly", etc. These ratings are based on the expected price movements of the products within the next 2 - 12 weeks, with different definitions for each rating in terms of standard deviations [272]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International crude oil has shown a slightly stronger trend recently. Concerns about supply disruptions due to Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil infrastructure have boosted oil prices, but the overall market is still under supply pressure from OPEC+增产 and US production resilience. The market expects OPEC+ to maintain the current production policy at the upcoming meeting. Oil prices are likely to oscillate to digest the supply disturbances caused by the Ukraine attacks [1]. - The chemical industry continues to oscillate and consolidate. There is no dominant market logic, and futures prices fluctuate with raw materials and market sentiment. The uncertainty of the commissioning time of chemical plants, especially ethylene glycol plants, increases the difficulty of investment. If the chemical industry rebounds following crude oil, investors can gradually short products with severe over - capacity, such as olefins [2]. - Investors should approach oil - chemical products with an oscillating mindset and wait for the implementation of specific policies to address the over - competition in China's petrochemical industry. 3. Summary by Product Category Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. - **Main Logic**: Tensions between the US and Venezuela and Trump's changing attitude towards Russia support geopolitical premiums and increase oil price volatility. However, the supply pressure from OPEC+增产 and US production resilience makes it difficult to reverse the market's oversupply expectation. Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations [7]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The escalation of the US - Venezuela situation has led to a significant increase in the geopolitical premium of asphalt. - **Main Logic**: The market has refocused on negative factors such as tariff increases and OPEC+增产, but the recent escalation of the US - Venezuela situation has led to expectations of a supply cut in asphalt raw materials, driving up asphalt futures prices. However, the supply tension has been significantly alleviated, and the demand is still not optimistic. The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [8]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil has increased significantly. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and between the US and Venezuela have enhanced the geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil, but the increase is limited by the increase in warehouse receipts. The import tariff of fuel oil in China has been raised, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil has changed. The three main drivers supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are showing a weakening trend. Geopolitical upgrades are expected to have only a short - term impact on prices [8]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has followed the increase in crude oil prices. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has oscillated and declined following crude oil. It is facing multiple negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It is expected to follow crude oil price fluctuations while maintaining a low valuation [10]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: There is still an expectation of shutdown in the far - month contract, and the methanol futures price has rebounded. - **Main Logic**: On September 2, the methanol futures price oscillated. The far - month shutdown expectation has caused the futures price to decline first and then rebound significantly. The fundamentals of downstream olefins provide limited support. Considering the high certainty of overseas shutdowns in the far - month, opportunities for going long in the far - month can be considered [19]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The release of the Indian tender has been postponed, and the market is generally waiting and watching. It is expected to strengthen soon. - **Main Logic**: As of September 2, information on the Indian tender and export policies has not been finalized, and the market is waiting and watching. The futures price has rebounded slightly, and the spot prices in different regions have diverged. The supply is expected to decrease, and the autumn demand is expected to pick up. Attention should be paid to the Indian tender price and subsequent export progress [19][20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The news of commissioning has stimulated the futures market to weaken. - **Main Logic**: The narrow fluctuations of coal and oil prices provide limited cost guidance. The news of the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's ethylene and downstream products has had a negative impact on the market, increasing supply pressure. Although the supply - demand structure shows some signs of weakening, the market is still in the de - stocking cycle, which provides some support [14][15][16]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Cost and sentiment fluctuations are still the main driving forces. - **Main Logic**: The commodity sentiment is poor, and PX has continued to decline. The upstream load has remained stable, but the commissioning of aromatic hydrocarbon plants has increased supply pressure. The downstream PTA plants are operating at a low level, and polyester demand is fair. PX is expected to maintain a tight balance, and its price is expected to fluctuate with cost and macro - sentiment [11]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: It is oscillating to find support, and cost and sentiment dominate the direction. - **Main Logic**: The Russia - Ukraine issue has stalled, and the crude oil market has been in a stalemate, providing limited guidance. After the hype of upstream plants subsided, the commodity sentiment cooled down, and the spot basis weakened. The downstream polyester sales and production have limited improvement, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is not high. It is expected to seek support downward in the short term, with a limited overall decline [11]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: There is an expectation of plant restart, and the quality of demand still needs to be verified. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost performance is poor, and the absolute price of short - fiber has declined accordingly. The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, the downstream sales and production are mediocre, and the terminal's procurement behavior is cautious. The quality of the peak season still needs to be verified. The absolute value of short - fiber will fluctuate with raw materials and oscillate in the short term [16]. Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: The production cut in September remains at 20% and can be expanded to 30% if necessary. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost is still seeking support, and the price of polyester bottle chips is oscillating weakly. The supply - demand drive is limited, and the overall order intake has declined in the off - season. The processing margin has no obvious expansion driver and will maintain an oscillating consolidation [17][18]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The support from maintenance is limited, and PP is oscillating weakly. - **Main Logic**: News of addressing the petrochemical over - capacity through plant maintenance has limited actual impact. Oil prices are oscillating in the short term, and geopolitical uncertainties remain. The supply side of PP is still increasing, and there is inventory pressure in the upstream and mid - stream. The demand has a peak - off - season switch, and the pipe - making industry's start - up rate has increased. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [22]. Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: PL follows the short - term fluctuations of PP. - **Main Logic**: On September 2, PL oscillated. Propylene enterprises' inventories are at a low level, and they are mainly pushing up prices. Downstream factories purchase on demand. The short - term market follows PP fluctuations, and the polypropylene processing fee is the key focus on the market [23]. Plastic - **Viewpoint**: The performance of peak - season demand is the short - term focus, and plastic is oscillating. - **Main Logic**: News of addressing the petrochemical over - capacity and the elimination of South Korean petrochemical capacity have limited actual impact. Oil prices are oscillating, and geopolitical uncertainties remain. There is still a capital game in the macro - environment, and the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption expectation still exists. The fundamentals of plastic are still under pressure, with high production and inventory levels. Attention should be paid to the downstream start - up rate and purchasing willingness [21]. Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The port will return to inventory accumulation, and the price of pure benzene will oscillate weakly. - **Main Logic**: More naphtha buyers are seeking October shipments, and the market expects a tightening supply due to planned maintenance in the Middle East and reduced exports from Russian refineries. However, the increase in imported pure benzene at the port and the return of the anti - over - competition sentiment in the energy and chemical industry have led to a decline in the price of pure benzene. The demand verification is crucial as the peak season approaches, but the orders of downstream products have not improved significantly [13]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The inventory pressure is prominent, and styrene continues to decline. - **Main Logic**: The decline of styrene is mainly due to the cooling of the anti - over - competition sentiment in the energy and chemical industry and the black commodity sentiment. Its fundamentals are poor, and it is significantly weaker than other chemical products. The explicit and implicit inventories are high, and the cost support is insufficient. The peak - season demand has not materialized, and the downstream demand is weak. There is some support at the valuation level of 7000 - 7100, but there is no positive driver for a rebound [14][15][16]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Weak market conditions are suppressing PVC, and it is operating weakly. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the domestic anti - over - competition policy has not been implemented, and the probability of overseas interest rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, with a decline in cost. The production is expected to decline in September due to autumn maintenance, the downstream start - up rate has not changed much, the export expectation is under pressure, and the cost is moving down. The market sentiment is poor, and the inventory is increasing, so the market is expected to operate weakly [25]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price rebound has slowed down, and the market is on hold for now. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the domestic anti - over - competition policy has not been implemented, and the probability of overseas interest rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the fundamentals have improved marginally, with increased demand for replenishment, improved non - aluminum start - up rates, increased export orders, and a slight decline in production due to maintenance. The spot price has reached a temporary peak, and the market is expected to oscillate due to the expectation of alumina production in the far - month [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "neutral" rating for the overall black building materials industry, with a mid - term outlook of "sideways" [6]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the military parade approaches, production restrictions and cut - backs in steel mills and the coal - coke sector have intensified. After the parade, there is a high possibility of production resumption, and the industry may still have upward potential. The subsequent price fluctuations of industry products will be dominated by the production resumption logic after the parade, and the macro and policy expectations at home and abroad may also affect price volatility [1][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month as expected. Iron water production decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of further decline as steel mills in Hebei enter maintenance. However, the impact is limited, and iron ore demand may return to a high level after the parade. Port inventories decreased, and the total inventory declined slightly. The price is expected to move sideways. For scrap steel, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. With low EAF profits and tight resources, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - As the parade approaches, coke production restrictions are stronger than those of steel mills. The short - term coke supply remains tight, and the price has support before the parade. After the parade, the recovery of iron water production needs to be monitored. The coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. 3.3 Alloys - For ferromanganese - silicon, the current inventory pressure of manufacturers is acceptable, and the cost provides short - term price support. However, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price has significant downward pressure. For ferrosilicon, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not large, and the cost supports the price in the short term. But the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline [2]. 3.4 Glass - The current demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong, and raw material prices are firm. After the post - trading of delivery contradictions, the far - month contract still offers a premium. In the medium - to - long - term, market - based capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline sideways [3][13]. 3.5 Soda Ash - The supply - surplus situation remains unchanged. After the decline in the futures price, spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [6][16]. 3.6 Specific Product Analyses - **Steel**: The cost support is strong, and the futures price has stopped falling and stabilized. Although the current fundamentals are weak, after the parade, iron water production may return to a high level, and the potential for phased restocking during the peak season may drive the price up [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to move sideways. Overseas mine shipments and arrivals increased, iron water production decreased slightly, and inventories decreased [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamentals have no prominent contradictions. With low EAF profits and tight resources, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [10]. - **Coke**: The voices for price hikes are weakening, and the futures price is moving sideways. The short - term supply remains tight, and the price has support before the parade. After the parade, the recovery of iron water production needs attention [12]. - **Coking Coal**: The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term. After the parade, the impact of short - term disturbances will disappear, and future regulatory policies, coal mine production resumption, and Mongolian coal imports need to be monitored [12][13]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The inventory pressure of manufacturers is acceptable, and the cost provides short - term support. However, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price has significant downward pressure [16][17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The inventory pressure of manufacturers is not large, and the cost supports the price in the short term. But the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline [18].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-09-03 对冲防御为主 股指期货：筹码有松动迹象 股指期权：对冲防御为主 国债期货：继续关注股市表现 股指期货方面，昨日盘面单边下行，全A指数下跌1.48%，强势科技方 向出现全面补跌，市场量能逼近3万亿。期货层面，持仓量大幅抬升， 显示对冲避险情绪有所强化，但与此同时，周一贴水扩大的情况得到改 善，基差全面收窄，目前暂未出现非常恐慌的交易情绪。展望后市，近期 市场观点开始走向分歧，在全A指数换手率升至相对高位之后，有部分资 金担心流动性的可持续性问题，故不排除资金进行调仓换股的可能性， 由双创进入哑铃结构进行阶段性防御，故配置上建议红利+IM多单应对当 下行情。 股指期权方面，昨日权益市场震荡下探，沪指收跌0.45%。期权方 面，受到行情走弱影响，各个品种成交额大幅提升33.71%，持仓量PCR指 标回落5.56%，当月合约隐含波动率整体走强，且隐波的日内波动幅度较 大。上述指标变化显示，期权市场再现对冲避险需求。昨天推测买看涨期 权离场后，今明两日可适当少量买入看跌期权防御为主。期权端可适当止 盈止损，交易层面建 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - On September 2, spot gold broke through the $3500 mark, reaching $3508 per ounce, a record high, and silver prices soared to a 14 - year high of $40.76 per ounce. The below - expected US ISM manufacturing PMI on Tuesday night supported the gold price [2]. - In August, the US manufacturing remained in the contraction zone, with a slightly slower contraction. New orders rebounded, indicating marginal improvement in demand, but output and employment declined, and order backlogs decreased, showing weak production motivation. Supply - side delivery slowed slightly, inventories were low, and future restocking might be triggered. Prices continued to rise, mainly driven by steel, aluminum, and tariffs. The overall situation was "initial demand recovery, weak production and employment, and rising cost pressure", and the manufacturing recovery was still restricted by high costs and uncertainties [2]. - The core market contradictions in the future will be the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and political intervention risks. Technically, the next target for gold is $3900 - $4000, and silver may challenge the historical high of $49 - $50. The weekly range for London gold is [3350, 3600], and for London silver is [38, 42] [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - China and Russia's leaders held talks, and China is willing to strengthen high - level exchanges with Russia, support each other's development, and coordinate positions on core issues to promote greater development of bilateral relations [1]. - Turkish President Erdogan discussed ways to end the Ukraine war with Russian President Putin and had a phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky, but both sides are "not ready" for a leaders' meeting [1]. - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent believes the Supreme Court will support Trump's use of the 1977 emergency powers act to impose comprehensive tariffs on most trading partners, and the US government has a backup plan if the Supreme Court does not support it [1]. Price Logic - The below - expected US ISM manufacturing PMI supported the gold price. The US manufacturing in August was in contraction with a slightly slower pace. Demand showed marginal improvement, but production and employment were weak, and cost pressure was rising. The manufacturing recovery was restricted by high costs and uncertainties [2]. - The core market contradictions are the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and political intervention risks. Technically, gold's next target is $3900 - $4000, and silver may challenge $49 - $50. The weekly ranges for London gold and silver are [3350, 3600] and [38, 42] respectively [2]. Market Indexes - On September 2, 2025, the commodity index was 2214.36 (+0.10%), the commodity 20 index was 2472.40 (+0.25%), and the industrial products index was 2227.52 (+0.01%) [42]. - The precious metals index on September 2, 2025, was 2831.72, with a daily increase of 0.48%, a 5 - day increase of 3.76%, a 1 - month increase of 4.44%, and a year - to - date increase of 27.99% [44].