Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report provides daily data on the passage and freight rates in the Strait of Hormuz, including the number of ships passing through, and the freight rates of VLCCs, product tankers, and container ships [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Strait Passage - On March 9, 2 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz (with AIS on), the same as the previous day. As of 13:00 on March 10, 2 ships passed through in the past 24 hours (with AIS on), including 1 liquid bulk ship operated by MHK Shipping Corp [4]. VLCC Daily Freight Rates - On March 9, the freight rates from the Middle East to China and from West Africa to China were 14.36 and 13.28 dollars per barrel respectively, with daily-on-day changes of +0.9% and -2.9% compared to last Friday [4]. Product Tanker Middle East Shipment Daily Freight Rates - On March 9, the freight rates from Saudi Ras Tanura to Singapore LR (105kt) and from Saudi Ras Tanura to Yokohama, Japan (105kt) were updated to 6.81 and 11.64 dollars per barrel respectively, both down 3.7% compared to last Friday [4]. Container Shipping Freight Rates - According to the data released by the Tianjin International Trade and Shipping Service Center at 11:00 on March 10, the TCI Tianjin - Persian Gulf basic port index rose 10.4K to 942.8 points, and there was no freight rate record, possibly due to the stagnation of Middle East shipments. The freight rate from Tianjin to European basic ports was 2991.4 dollars/FEU, with the index rising 28 compared to the previous day. The freight rates from Tianjin to the western and eastern Mediterranean basic ports were 3790.8 and 3936 dollars/FEU respectively, with the index rising 2.4% compared to the previous day [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report provides daily data on the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz and shipping freight rates, including VLCC, refined oil, and container shipping [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strait Passage - On March 9, 2 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz (with AIS on), the same as the previous day. As of 13:00 on March 10, 2 ships passed through in the past 24 hours (with AIS on), including 1 liquid bulk ship operated by MHK Shipping Corp [4]. VLCC Daily Freight - On March 9, the freight rates from the Middle East to China and from West Africa to China were $14.36 and $13.28 per barrel respectively, with daily环比 increases of +0.9% and -2.9% compared to last Friday [4]. Refined Oil Daily Freight - On March 9, the freight rates from Saudi Ras Tanura to Singapore LR (105kt) and from Saudi Ras Tanura to Yokohama, Japan (105kt) were updated to $6.81 and $11.64 per barrel respectively, both decreasing by -3.7% compared to last Friday [4]. Container Shipping Freight - According to the data released by the Tianjin International Trade and Shipping Service Center at 11:00 on March 10, the TCI Tianjin - Persian Gulf basic port index increased by 10.4K to 942.8 points, and there was no freight rate record, possibly due to the stagnation of Middle East shipments. The freight rate from Tianjin to European basic ports was $2991.4 per FEU, with the index rising by 28 compared to the previous day. The freight rates from Tianjin to the western and eastern Mediterranean basic ports were $3790.8 and $3936 per FEU respectively, with the index increasing by 2.4%环比 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Short - term bullishness in both domestic and international sugar prices is mainly driven by crude oil prices, while in the long term, the sugar market is fundamentally dominated, and both the domestic and international sugar markets are in a supply surplus pattern [2][7] - In the short term, sugar prices are weakly driven by their own fundamentals and mainly fluctuate in line with crude oil prices. In the medium and long term, the global sugar fundamentals have not been significantly impacted for the time being, and an ample supply expectation is still maintained [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Movement - Affected by crude oil prices, white sugar has seen sharp short - term volatility. The ZCE white sugar main contract rose sharply on March 9th and dropped on March 10th [1][2] Commentary Valuation Perspective - Short - term disturbances mainly come from the conflict in the Middle East. During the conflict, crude oil prices dominate the short - term trend, affecting trade of importers in the Middle East and fuel transportation costs in global trade, pushing prices to fluctuate upward in the short term [3][8] - If the conflict persists, rising crude oil prices will drive up gasoline prices, boost the price of ethanol as an alternative, and may lead to a low sugar production ratio in Brazil, resulting in lower sugar production and exports in Brazil, tighter global sugar supply, and further pushing up sugar prices [3][8] - Once the conflict ends, crude oil prices are expected to fall rapidly, and the sugar market will return to trading based on fundamentals, focusing on planted areas of major producing countries, the impact of weather on yield per unit area, and sugar production data of major producing countries [3][8] Fundamental Side - The global sugar market will be in a supply surplus pattern in the 25/26 crushing season, with major producing countries expected to increase production. Domestic and international sugar prices are at a phased bottom, and the medium - and long - term fundamental surplus has not changed [4][8] - China's sugar production forecast for the 25/26 crushing season has been revised upward to 7.10 - 7.22 million tons, an increase of 220,000 - 300,000 tons from the previous forecast [4][8] Future Scenarios of the Middle East Conflict - If the conflict ends in the short term, the bullish effect of the phased rise in crude oil prices can only support a short - term rebound in sugar prices. After crude oil prices fall, the effect will fade, and the market will return to the fundamental logic [5][9] - If the conflict persists for a long time, high crude oil prices will not only push up sugar prices in the short term but also tighten sugar supply through factors such as trade and sugar - spilt ratio. Coupled with the potential negative impact of El Niño on sugar production in major producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere, it will further reduce the global sugar supply surplus in the next crushing season or even shift to a shortage, driving sugar prices into an upward channel from the current bottom range [5][9] Conclusion - Short - term sugar prices are mainly driven by crude oil prices. If oil prices remain strong, sugar prices will stay firm; otherwise, they will adjust accordingly [6][9] - In the medium and long term, the global sugar market maintains an ample supply expectation. Once geopolitical disturbances weaken, sugar prices may return to a range - bound pattern at the bottom [6][9] - If the conflict persists and leads to sustained high oil prices, which may reduce sugar production in Brazil's next crushing season, the timing of the reversal in the sugar price cycle may come ahead of schedule [6][9] - Future attention should be paid to crude oil prices, the development of geopolitical conflicts, and sugar production data of major producing countries [6][9]

美国和中国种植成本结构差异对比 进口玉米总量及架构变化 万吨 巴西 | 乌克兰 |美国 ■ 全球 45 - 40 | 3000 30 2500 52 2000 20 15 1500 10 1000 5 500 人工 衣药 利息 地租成本 悠料电力 化肥 神子 ■中国 |美国 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2022 2023 2019 2021 2024 2025 进口谷物总量变化预测 CBOT和大连玉米相关性复盘 元/吨 万吨 美分/蒲式 期货收盘价(活跃合约):黄玉米 期货收盘价(活跃合约):CBOT玉米(右) 小麦 合计(所有核心能量谷物) | 大麦 玉米 昌梁 3200 900 8000 3500 3000 7000 - 800 3000 2800 6000 - 700 2500 5000 600 4000 3000 70000 21/22 23/24 20/21 22/23 2026/ 2019/ 20221 2023/ 2024/ 2025/1 20211 数据来源: Wind Mysteel FAS 农资导报 中信期货研究所 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观 ...

中东地缘冲突持续推升能源价格，霍尔木兹海峡发运停滞，引发市场对原油断供担忧。根据文华财经数据，3月9日，聚酯全产业链 各环节相关品种开盘封于涨停,其中包括PX、PTA、乙二醇、短纤和聚酯瓶片主力合约涨幅达7%。 PX-PTA-PET Polyester Chain Surged With Geopolitical Tensions 中东冲突持续,聚酯表现强势 Investment consulting business qualification: CSRC License [2012] No. 669 从业资格号 Qualification No: F03147405 投资咨询号 Consulting No .: Z0022768 Li Yang 杨黎 投资咨询号Consulting No.: Z0013632 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号Qualification No: F3023159 Prive Movement 价格异动 The continuous geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have pushed up energy pric ...

投资咨询号 Consulting No: Z0021454 投资咨询号Consulting No .: Z0013632 Prive Movement 价格异动 Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have disrupted the normal operation, restart and export of Iran's methanol plants, triggering market concerns over potential shortfalls in China's methanol imports. According to Wind data, during the morning session on March 9, methanol prices showed strong performance. The main methanol futures contract once surged more than 14% to RMB 2,881/mt, and closed at RMB 2,830/mt in the ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - High oil prices have lifted the cost center of aromatics, and constrained feedstock supply has affected aromatic production. With downstream demand steadily improving, pure benzene and styrene prices are expected to remain strong and volatile. Near - term supply - demand fundamentals are supported by geopolitical factors, and long calendar spreads in pure benzene and styrene are recommended [9][11] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Movement - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have pushed up oil prices, raising the cost center of aromatic hydrocarbons and impacting production due to restricted feedstock supply. On March 9 morning trading, styrene and pure benzene hit price limit up. The main pure benzene contract rose 9.99% to 8,155 yuan per tonne, and the main styrene contract increased 8.99% to 9,587 yuan per tonne, reaching recent multi - year highs [5][6] Benzene - **Supply side**: Many producers plan to reduce operating rates due to expectations of rising feedstock prices and tight supply [7][10] - **Demand side**: Bullish price expectations have led to active buying from downstream sectors, enabling smooth price transmission and improved profitability for most pure benzene downstream industries [7][10] Styrene - **Supply side**: Gulei Petrochemical has entered maintenance, and Sinochem Quanzhou has reduced operating rates due to feedstock issues, with further production cuts expected. Ethylene, another key feedstock, has been affected by geopolitical tensions. Rising naphtha and methanol prices have widened ethylene production losses, leading to expectations of reduced operating rates or maintenance at some plants, which may disrupt non - integrated styrene units [8][11] - **Demand side**: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused feedstock shortages at Asian refineries and disrupted Middle Eastern styrene exports, widening the global styrene supply gap and boosting China's styrene export transactions. Rising styrene prices have triggered active restocking by downstream and end - users, with improved profits across the three major styrene downstream sectors and strong bullish sentiment [8][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report downgrades the previous overweight recommendation for stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals to equal - weight in the short term, and relatively recommends the allocation of TS and TF [1] Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical conflict stage affects market expectations of inflation and the economy, and the Fed will respond when long - term inflation expectations change. It is recommended to use the neutral scenario as the benchmark for asset portfolio construction and manage the positions of risk assets in the short term [1] - The market's policy expectations for the first half of the year will gradually converge, and the focus will shift to the verification of real - world data [1] - Stock indices may enter a period of shock adjustment, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by the unfalsifiable expectation of tightened monetary conditions [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance Summary - Most domestic commodity futures markets closed higher, with shipping futures leading the gains, and energy, chemical, and other sectors also rising. Some varieties such as crude oil and asphalt had significant increases. However, basic metals and precious metals mostly declined [1] Overseas and Domestic Macroeconomic Analysis - Overseas: The stage of geopolitical conflict is crucial for the market's inflation and economic expectations, and the Fed will act when long - term inflation expectations change. It's too early to discuss the duration of the war, and a neutral scenario is recommended for asset allocation [1] - Domestic: After the release of the report, the market's policy expectations for the first half of the year will gradually converge, and the focus will shift to data verification [1] Asset Views - Short - term: Downgrade the previous overweight recommendation for stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals to equal - weight, and relatively recommend the allocation of TS and TF. Stock indices may enter a shock adjustment period, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by monetary tightening expectations [1] Sector - by - Sector Analysis - **Financial**: Stock index futures, index options, and bond futures are expected to be in a shock state. Risk factors still exist, and attention should be paid to factors such as incremental funds and AI enterprise credit risks [4] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate. Inflation expectations suppress interest - rate cut expectations, and attention should be paid to US fundamental data, Fed policies, and geopolitical trends [4] - **Shipping**: The freight rate of the European line in the second half of March stopped falling and rose, and the Middle East route is seeking alternative routes. The market is expected to be slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to geopolitical events and shipping traffic [4] - **Black Building Materials**: Affected by geopolitical risks, costs are rising. Most varieties are in a shock state, and attention should be paid to factors such as mine production and policy dynamics [4] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Oil price fluctuations dominate the market, and most basic metals are in a wide - range shock. Some varieties such as aluminum and nickel are expected to be slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances and policy changes [4] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Geopolitical situations may lead to production cuts in oil - producing countries, and aromatics have a demand for price increases. Most varieties are expected to be in a shock state, and attention should be paid to factors such as oil prices and geopolitical events [4][5] - **Agriculture**: Geopolitical conflicts disrupt the market, and agricultural products fluctuate greatly. Most varieties are in a shock state, and attention should be paid to factors such as geopolitical events, weather, and policies [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Stock Index Futures**: Energy shortage concerns have marginally eased. The equity market rebounded after hitting a low, with a trading volume of about 2.67 trillion yuan, a reduction of nearly 500 billion yuan compared to the previous Monday. Due to overseas conflicts and oil production cuts, market risk appetite declined. After the G7 discussed releasing oil reserves, energy concerns eased, and funds shifted to OpenClaw concept stocks. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and the medium - term is to seek bottom - building opportunities [1][6]. - **Stock Index Options**: The main strategy is to use call options for defense. The equity index was volatile, and option trading volume increased. Implied volatility rose and then fell, and the option market is trading on volatility rather than just direction [2][7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market adjusted across the board. Yields of medium - and long - term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose, with the 30 - year bond yield rising the most. Due to the US - Iran conflict and rising inflation concerns, the short - term bond market may continue to fluctuate, and the strategy is mainly arbitrage, focusing on the convergence opportunity of the 30 - 10Y Treasury bond term spread [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Stock Index Futures** - **View**: Energy shortage concerns have marginally eased [6]. - **Logic**: Overseas conflicts and oil production cuts led to a decline in risk appetite. The G7's discussion on releasing oil reserves alleviated energy concerns. With the approaching earnings season in April and the release of annual reports by technology leaders, there may be profit - taking. Inflation and geopolitical risks remain [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see [6]. - **Stock Index Options** - **View**: Use call options for defense [7]. - **Logic**: The equity index was volatile, option trading volume increased, and the option market is trading on volatility [2][7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold call options for defense [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **View**: The bond market adjusted across the board [7]. - **Logic**: The US - Iran conflict led to rising oil prices and increased inflation concerns. Although energy price increases may push up PPI, the increase in bond yields depends on price transmission and the domestic economic situation. The short - term bond market may be affected by inflation concerns and continue to fluctuate [2][7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: Fluctuation. Hedging strategy: Pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: Pay attention to long - end positive arbitrage opportunities. Curve strategy: Pay attention to the flattening of the 30Y - 10Y yield curve in the short term [7]. 3.2 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: Not provided in the given content [9] - **Stock Index Options Data**: Not provided in the given content [13] - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: Not provided in the given content [25]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market sentiment is weak, with platinum and palladium prices fluctuating. The platinum futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange fell 1.43% to 549.35 yuan/gram, and the palladium futures contract dropped 2.18% to 412.70 yuan/gram on March 9, 2026 [1]. - In the short - term, platinum prices lack a clear driving force and will maintain a volatile trend. In the long - term, they are expected to be volatile and bullish due to fundamental resilience and the weakening of the US dollar's credit [2]. - Palladium prices are currently following the overall trend of the precious metals sector. In the long - term, they are also expected to be volatile and bullish, with current supply disruptions and long - term supply - demand loosening [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Main Logic**: Multiple factors are at play. The escalating conflict between the US and Iran boosts the safe - haven demand for precious metals, but the rising oil prices lead to higher inflation expectations and delay the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, suppressing platinum prices. The weak US employment data in February has a limited impact due to the US - Iran conflict. In the long - run, the damage to the Fed's independence and the loosening of the global political and economic order will weaken the US dollar index, which is beneficial for platinum prices, but the US - Iran conflict adds additional uncertainties [2]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish. The combination of fundamental strength and the weakening of the US dollar's credit supports a long - term bullish outlook [2]. Palladium - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the US has made a preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Russian unforged palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions on Russian palladium, causing supply uncertainties. On the demand side, palladium still faces structural pressure. Overall, the long - term supply - demand is loosening, but short - term supply disruptions exist, and it currently follows the overall precious metals market [3]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish. The shortage of spot palladium and the weakening of the US dollar's credit lead to a long - term bullish expectation [3]. Commodity Index - **Special Index**: The commodity index was at 2584.35, up 2.93%; the commodity 20 index was at 2937.05, up 2.55%; and the industrial products index was at 2527.43, up 3.87% on March 9, 2026 [49]. - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metals index was at 2701.22 on March 9, 2026, with a daily increase of 0.29%, a 5 - day decline of 0.59%, a 1 - month decline of 5.40%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.57% [51].