投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-19 东北粮采购需求回落，玉米价格支撑减退 油脂：昨日走势分化，棕油相对抗跌 蛋白粕：南美豆供应前景乐观，内外盘延续震荡偏弱 玉米/淀粉：东北粮采购需求回落，价格支撑减退 生猪：需求阶段提振现货，生猪盘面依旧承压 天然橡胶：压力位力度较强，胶价高位回落 合成橡胶：关注调整力度及时间 棉花：棉价短期延续偏强走势 白糖：供应宽松预期下，糖价延续走低 纸浆：期货来回波动，现货持续走低 双胶纸：缺乏驱动，窄幅震荡 原木：现货企稳，盘面走强 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 玉米观点：东北粮采购需求回落，价格支撑减退 逻辑：今日国内玉米现货价格涨跌不一，东北深加工以稳为主；华北深加 工涨跌互现；北方港口稳中有涨；南放销区港口偏弱运行。近期，因市场 传出调节性储备拍卖等相关消息，叠加盘面涨至高位整数关卡，引起市场 情绪转向，盘面迎来下跌。受盘面情绪影响，上游部分区域惜售情绪有所 松动。东北方面，基层贸易商与烘干塔获利出货意愿增强，东北粮农惜售 情绪或小幅降温，致使市场流通粮源阶段性增加，售粮进程预计小 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期市收盘多数上涨，贵金属涨幅居前 ——中信期货晨报20251219 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 4550.4 -0.61% | | -0.52% | 0.99% | -1.46% | 16.05% | 航运 贵金属 | 集运欧线 | 166 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025-12-18 China Fiscal Policy Outlook: Moderate Expandsion? 中国财政政策展望：如何理解适度扩张 | 甘 青 | Gan | Qing | 从业资格号 Qualification No：F03124127 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0023461 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 程小庆 | | | Cheng Xiaoqing 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3083989 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0018635 | | 张菁 | Zhang Jing | | 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3022617 | 投资咨询号 Consulting ...

EIA周度数据:炼厂高开工,汽柴再累库 | 2025年12月18日 | 能源化工组 李云旭 | | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: | 从业资格号 | | 发类可【2012】669号 投资咨询号 Z0021671 | F03141405 | 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点 和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会 因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场 有风险, 投资需谨慎。 美国12月12日当周商业原油库存减少127.4万桶,虽原油加工量增加12.8万桶/日,原油净出口 增加71.9万桶/日均利于加速去库,但实际去库幅度与上期数据相差不大。炼厂开工率继续攀升至 94.8%,为同期绝对高位,汽柴油库存延续累积,原油与石油产品总库存处同期高位。总体来看, 单周数据对价格指向有限,持续利空汽柴油裂解价差。 风险因素:关税政策调整,地缘局势,OPEC+产量政策。 | 单位:万桶 | 公布值 | 前值 | 单位:万桶/日 | 公布值 | 前值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国商业原油库存变动 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to close short positions on a phased basis. Geopolitical factors such as the situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela are continuously disturbing the market, and the oil price will continue to oscillate. Different chemical products show different trends due to factors such as raw material supply, device status, and market demand [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela are continuously disturbing, and the oil price continues to oscillate. The EIA data shows a seasonal pattern of crude oil inventory reduction and gasoline and diesel inventory accumulation in the US last week. Geopolitical factors dominate short - term fluctuations [8]. - **Asphalt**: Anticipated disruptions in raw material supply cause a sharp rise in asphalt futures prices. If there is a substantial supply cut, the asphalt futures price will be strong; otherwise, it may rise and then fall. The asphalt market has weak supply and demand, and the demand is in the off - season [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The price of high - sulfur fuel oil is driven up by the escalating situation between the US and Venezuela. However, the demand outlook is currently suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with the crude oil price. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Currently, its valuation is low [13]. - **PX**: The cost decline slows down, and PX profitability continues to expand. The polyester load remains high, and the market expects a tight supply of raw materials in 2026, so PX is likely to rise easily and fall difficult in the short term [14]. - **PTA**: It follows the rise of upstream costs, and the spot basis remains firm. The overall supply - demand pattern of near - month PTA is relatively tight, and the profit has stronger support below [15]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is in a state of weak reality and divided expectations. The recent trading focuses on far - month device maintenance and storage pressure. The market has different expectations for the balance in Q1 2026 [17][19]. - **Styrene**: Both upward and downward movements are restricted, and it oscillates. The support from crude oil and the cost side is insufficient, but its own supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in December [21]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Factories reduce production to maintain prices, and ethylene glycol rebounds after an over - decline. In the short term, the supply - demand pressure eases slightly, but the long - term inventory accumulation pattern remains [22]. - **Short - Fiber**: The decline in upstream costs eases, and the short - fiber price fluctuates with the upstream. The factory inventory decreases slightly, and the support for processing fees below is enhanced [24][26]. - **Polyester Bottle Chip**: The price is supported by upstream raw material costs. It follows the rise of upstream polyester raw materials, but the price increase is limited due to the restart of some devices [28][29]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disturbances occur again, and methanol is expected to oscillate strongly. The port inventory decreases, and there are expectations of supply reduction in the Middle East and non - Iranian sources [30][31]. - **Urea**: A new round of Indian tenders and enterprise inventory - reduction information boost the market, and the futures price rebounds temporarily. The actual fundamental support is insufficient, and the impact of Indian tenders on the domestic market is relatively limited [32][34]. - **Plastic**: The oil price weakens, and the support from maintenance is limited. It oscillates weakly. The fundamental support is limited, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [36]. - **PP**: The expectation of maintenance provides support, and it oscillates. The PDH profit is under short - term pressure, and the supply - demand pattern is still under pressure [37]. - **PL**: The spot is strong, and the expectation of PDH maintenance provides support. It oscillates. The PDH maintenance expectation has a boosting effect, but the short - term powder profit is under pressure [38]. - **PVC**: The exit of overseas devices boosts market sentiment. However, the over - supply expectation in the PVC market has not been reversed, and it is expected to oscillate in the medium term [39]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations and is likely to oscillate. There is short - term inventory reduction, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand is under pressure [40][41]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [43]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including the latest values and changes [44]. - **Inter - Variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are given, along with the latest values and changes [45]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summaries are provided in the given text for this part, only the variety names are mentioned. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and PPI commodity index all show an upward trend on December 17, 2025 [285]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on December 17, 2025 shows a decline. The daily, 5 - day, 1 - month, and year - to - date percentage changes are - 0.69%, - 2.18%, - 7.35%, and - 12.62% respectively [286].

股指期货方面，需观察反弹持续性。周三权益市场反攻，创业板、科 创50领涨且涨幅均超2%，TMT及电新链条活跃，市场量能升至1.83万亿， 涨停家数57家，跌停家数25家，涨停家数偏少显示市场偏普涨。同时观察 盘面，午后快涨阶段，部分ETF明显放量，不排除部分大资金午后借助ETF 工具抄底，而从近年经验来看，ETF放量多对应于市场进入局部底部阶 段，故对于市场情绪起正向作用，另外早盘亚太市场偏暖也提振市场情 绪。但对于12月下旬走势，仍建议谨慎应对，限售解禁、日元套利、AI企 业CDS上移均构成不确定性，建议以高股息、涨价链应对。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-12-18 股市反攻，债市情绪修复 股指期货：需观察反弹持续性 股指期权：短期振幅放⼤，中期仍待观察 国债期货：债市情绪有所修复 股指期权方面，短期振幅放大，中期仍待观察。昨日标的市场全线上 涨，前一日提到部分资金博弈短期超跌反弹应验，期权市场总成交额时隔 近1个月重回100亿元以上。由于行情反弹，日内认购期权成交量占比回 升，持仓量PCR也有所反弹，且比值PCR明显回落，各指标基本回到两日前 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中央财办对中央经济⼯作会议的解读中，对扩⼤内需、"反内卷"、 稳定房地产市场等热点进⾏了深⼊分析，政策基调仍显积极。淡季深 ⼊需求转弱，钢材基本⾯难⾔亮点，但冬储补库预期叠加成本⽀撑， 盘⾯低位反弹。同时冬储补库预期⽀撑下铁矿盘⾯表现较强，煤焦估 值修复反弹。玻纯盘⾯价格企稳反弹，但供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上 ⽅空间。 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-18 政策及冬储预期仍有⽀撑，盘⾯表现偏 强 中央财办对中央经济工作会议的解读中，对扩大内需、"反内卷"、 稳定房地产市场等热点进行了深入分析，政策基调仍显积极。淡季深 入需求转弱，钢材基本面难言亮点，但冬储补库预期叠加成本支撑， 盘面低位反弹。同时冬储补库预期支撑下铁矿盘面表现较强，煤焦估 值修复反弹。玻纯盘面价格企稳反弹，但供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上 方空间。 1. 铁元素方面：年底钢厂检修增多，铁矿刚需支撑逐渐弱化，港口 库存累积，钢厂补库需求仍未明显释放，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废 钢供需偏稳，库存累积，但电炉利润尚可，长、短流程钢企废钢需求 仍有支撑，预计现货价格震荡。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-18 铂观点：宏观⽀撑叠加现货供应趋紧，铂价震荡上⾏ 主要逻辑：据美国劳工局数据，美国11月非农就业人口增长6.4万 人，高于预期值5万人，但11月失业率同样高于预期值4.5%、录得4. 6%，市场对于明年1月美联储降息预期小幅抬升，贵金属价格存在一 定支撑，现货供应趋紧同样支撑铂价。此外，本周以来内盘涨幅显著 高于外盘，导致内外价差持续拉大，截至12月17日，广期所铂2606合 约-伦敦铂金现货价差（含税）已达到 34.4元/克，大幅高于进口成 本，存在无风险套利机会，因此未来价差存在收敛倾向，建议关注内 外盘正套，即空国内多海外。展望未来，供给方面，南非作为全球铂 族金属的主要供应国，未来仍存在电力供应以及极端天气风险。需求 方面，铂金市场整体处于结构性扩张阶段，汽车催化剂领域需求保持 相对稳定，氢能产业为未来重要增长点，首饰和投资需求扩张，同 时"降息+软着陆"组合将进一步放大远期价格弹性。综合来看，在 供需基本面韧性的背景下，铂价保持坚挺。 展望：供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，预计铂价将震荡偏强，建 议关注 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-12-18 宏观与地缘变量共振，⾦稳银涨 宏观宽松与地缘不确定性⽀撑贵⾦属，⾦稳银涨格局延续。⻩⾦在⾼位保 持稳定，⽩银在资⾦推动下加速上⾏并触及66美元，短线波动放⼤但中期 ⽅向未改。 研究员： 重点资讯： 1） 美国正在考虑的制裁选项包括针对用于运输俄罗斯石油的所谓" 影子船队"油轮，以及促成相关交易的贸易商。这些措施正在筹备 中，以备俄罗斯总统普京拒绝与乌克兰达成提议的和平协议时动用， 最早或本周启动。 2） 德国制造业成为拖累因素，产出指数跌至49.4，结束了连续九个 月的增长态势。制造业PMI降至47.7，连续第二个月位于收缩区间。 法国制造业出现积极信号，PMI升至50.6，创40个月新高，制造业产 出指数也从11月的45.0大幅回升至49.7，为四个月高位。 3） 美国总统特朗普周一签署行政命令，将芬太尼列为"大规模杀伤 性武器"，此举极大地扩展了美国政府打击这种合成阿片类药物非法 贩运的权限。该药物每年造成数以万计的美国人因过量使用而死亡。 价格逻辑： 宏观与地缘变量共振延续，金价进入高位再定价阶段。美国通 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-18 生猪备货开始，需求驱动反弹 油脂：昨日继续偏弱运行 蛋白粕：国储拍卖持续，双粕或震荡偏弱 玉米/淀粉：多空交织，盘面僵持 生猪：备货逐渐开始，需求驱动反弹 天然橡胶：关注短期压力位力度 合成橡胶：多头情绪延续偏强 棉花：政策端故事提振棉价 白糖：供应压力边际增大，糖价承压 纸浆：期货来回波动，现货持续走低 双胶纸：刚需购销为主，纸价平稳运行 原木：供应压力边际缓解，原木平稳运行为主 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 生猪观点：备货逐渐开始，需求驱动反弹 主要逻辑：冬至备货逐渐开始，需求阶段性改善，驱动猪价低位反弹，但 考虑到生猪供应压力依旧存在，价格波动区间预计有限。（1）供应：短 期，12月二育大猪开始出栏，据涌益监测，12月上旬二育存栏总量环比- 16.99%，大猪供应市场。中期，2025年上半年全国能繁母猪产能尚在高位 波动，并且1月~10月新生仔猪数量持续环比增加，按照养殖周期推算，预 计2026年4月之前商品猪出栏量持续过剩。长期，2025年三季度能繁母猪 产能开始出现去化 ...