逻辑：天胶昨日再度大幅增仓突破上行，一举突破近一个月压力位，不过 我们认为依旧是宏观氛围驱动，并无基本面变化。目前来看近一个月运行 区间上移，前期压力位成为支撑位。当前交易逻辑我们认为维持在宏观的 带动，即资金从热门板块流出后的轮动。橡胶作为前期受关注较少，且偏 多预期较为一致的品种来说，提前于基本面发生边际变化前开始上涨。虽 然目前来说从基本面的角度仍属于没有强驱动的阶段，具体来说，海外供 应季节性上量相对顺利，上游供应目前仍相对充裕。而需求端来看，节前 轮胎企业逢低采购，虽对现货形成一定支撑，但总体并未出现大批量集中 补库的情况。而当前最明面的利空为较快的累库。但在资金炒作预期的背 景下，盘面暂时易涨难跌。 展望：基本面变量有限，但当前资金关注度继续上升，盘面维持震荡偏 强。 油脂:油脂涨势延续 蛋白粕:双粕空头减仓推涨盘面，备货尾声关注上方压力 玉米/淀粉:盘面止跌，震荡运行 生猪:供需宽松，猪价弱势 天然橡胶:强势突破前高，胶价继续上行 合成橡胶:前期驱动力度有所缓和 棉花:持仓下降，但价格坚挺 白糖:糖价反弹，关注上方压力 纸浆:基本面弱势，盘面陷入横向波动 双胶纸:双胶纸窄幅震荡运行 原木:外盘提 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has warmed up, and the market is operating strongly. The pace of steel mill复产 is slow, and the high shipping volume and high inventory of iron ore still pose pressure. The pre - holiday inventory replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, and there are disturbances on the coking coal supply side, leading to a rebound in the market at a low level. In the off - season, the inventory accumulation pressure of steel products is becoming more obvious, and the fundamentals lack highlights, but there is no negative feedback expectation for the time being, and the market follows the cost to strengthen. Glass and soda ash follow the sector to strengthen, but the oversupply continues to limit the upside space of the market [1] - In general, the fundamentals in the off - season are lackluster. Before the Spring Festival, continue to pay attention to the downstream inventory replenishment intensity. At the same time, the resumption of production of steel enterprises in January is expected to further boost the inventory replenishment expectation. At that time, the furnace material prices still have the expectation of a low - level rebound. Pay attention to the disturbance of macro - policies [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - The arrival volume of iron ore has decreased, and the short - term supply pressure has eased slightly, but the inventory pressure is still increasing. The commodity sentiment is strong, and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The supply and demand on both sides in reality still need to be verified. The scrap steel supply is stable, and the daily consumption is expected to decline seasonally. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, but the recent warming of the commodity market sentiment is expected to drive the spot price to follow the finished products [1] 3.2 Carbon Element - The possibility of a significant increase in coke supply is low, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will continue to be healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. After the spot price increase is implemented, it may remain stable for the time being, and the market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side. The output of domestic coal mines will gradually decline approaching the holiday, and the coking coal fundamentals will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may remain oscillating before the Spring Festival, and the sustainability of the current warm sentiment in the market remains to be observed, and it is expected to oscillate [2] 3.3 Alloys - The manganese - silicon market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. When the market rises to a high level, it may face selling pressure from hedging. The futures price of the main contract is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation. The silicon - iron market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The low trading activity restricts the upside space of the market. It is difficult for the futures price of the main contract to maintain a high level. In the long - term, the futures price may still oscillate around the cost valuation [2] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disturbances for glass, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [2] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis 3.5.1 Steel - The cost support is strengthening, and the market is rising from a low level. The spot market trading is average. The profitability of steel mills has shrunk slightly, the molten iron output has remained stable month - on - month, and the output of the five major steel products has increased slightly. In the off - season, the demand for building materials continues to weaken seasonally, and the steel export shows a sign of a high - level decline, but the demand for hot - rolled coils still has some resilience. The inventory accumulation pressure of steel products is becoming more obvious, and the overall inventory level is still moderately high. The market is expected to oscillate widely [8] 3.5.2 Iron Ore - The molten iron output has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the downstream inventory is accumulating rapidly. Overseas mine shipping has increased, and the arrival volume has continued to weaken. The demand side has a stable rigid demand, and the steel mill inventory is increasing rapidly. The port inventory is still accumulating. The short - term supply pressure has eased slightly, and the inventory pressure is still increasing. The pre - holiday inventory replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [8] 3.5.3 Scrap Steel - The arrival volume this week has decreased, and the daily consumption of electric furnaces is expected to decline seasonally. The supply of scrap steel is stable, and the daily consumption is expected to decline seasonally. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, but the recent warming of the commodity market sentiment is expected to drive the spot price to follow the finished products [9] 3.5.4 Coke - The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the market sentiment is warm. The supply of coke has decreased month - on - month, the demand is supported by rigid demand, and the inventory of steel mills is increasing steadily. The supply - demand structure will continue to be healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may remain stable after the price increase is implemented, and the market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side [12] 3.5.5 Coking Coal - The spot price is oscillating weakly and stably, and the market is operating strongly. The domestic supply is stable, the import volume is still high, and the inventory of upstream coal mines is being continuously digested. The fundamentals have limited changes. The spot price may remain oscillating before the Spring Festival, and the sustainability of the current warm sentiment in the market remains to be observed, and it is expected to oscillate [13] 3.5.6 Glass - The downstream is approaching the holiday, and the production and sales are weakening month - on - month. The supply may be disturbed, the demand is weak, and the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [14] 3.5.7 Soda Ash - Driven by the macro - sentiment, the price is oscillating. The supply has increased slightly, the demand is weakening, and the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [14][17] 3.5.8 Manganese - Silicon - Driven by the macro - sentiment, the market is rising, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure at the upper level. The cost is expected to increase, the demand support is weakening, and the supply is difficult to digest the high - level inventory. The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price of the main contract is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [17] 3.5.9 Silicon - Iron - The supply - demand driving force is limited, and it is difficult for the market to maintain a high level. The cost support still exists, the demand support is weakening, and the daily output is at a low level. The market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental driving force is limited. It is difficult for the futures price of the main contract to maintain a high level. In the long - term, the futures price may still oscillate around the cost valuation [19]

GEM NI: MSKAE3航线仍有差价位于1995-2005美元/FEU, AE1航线1900美元/FEU沿用至2月末。HPL-SPOT价格持平位于2035美元/FEU OCEAN: 29日下午, CMA2月15日后线上运价下调200美元/FEU至2293美元/FEU,报价沿用至2月下旬;达飞对2月下半月运价位于 2293-2493美元/FEU波动,较上半月小幅调降。 【中信期货航运(集运)】地缘情绪紧张06、08合约偏 2026/1/29 强,CMA2月下半月运价调降200美元 投资咨询业务资格: サ 工业与周期组 究 证监许可【2012】669号 安婕锐 武嘉路 员 从业资格号:F03100682 从业资格号:F03117373 投资咨询号: Z0021085 投资咨询号: Z0022651 近期集运走势偏强,地缘方面,根据我们前期日报和以色列时报报道,在伊朗危机之下,胡塞武装威胁有可能再度对红海航运袭 击,远月的复航预期松动,带动06、08合约偏强,而现货方面据极羽线上报价,MSK本周开舱2月第二周至月底价格 1900美元/FEU环比 跌100美元，开舱价跌幅收窄,而达飞2月下旬线上运价较上半月小幅调 ...

EIA数据显示,美国1月23日当周商业原油库存减少229.5万桶,主要因净进口减少170.6万桶/ 日。同期美国原油产量减少3.6万桶/日,炼厂开工率由93.3%加速回落至90.9%,但仍处同期高位, 原油加工量下降39.5万桶/日,寒潮影响在本期数据的体现较为有限。炼厂开工率下滑后美国汽柴 油累库压力有所放缓,美国原油与石油产品总库存高位小幅回落,单周数据指向有限。 风险因素:关税政策调整,地缘局势,OPEC+产量政策。 中信期货 EIA周度数据:炼厂加速降负,汽柴累库放缓 | 2026年1月29日 | 能源化工组 李云旭 | 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: | 从业资格号 | 和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会 因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场 | | 证监许可【2012】669号 | F03141405 | 有风险,投资需谨慎。 | | | 投资咨询号 Z0021671 | | | 单位: 万桶 | 公布值 | 前值 | 单位:万桶/日 | 公布值 | 前值 | | -- ...

【中信期货航运(集运)】地缘情绪紧张06、08合约偏 2026/1/29 强,CMA2月下半月运价调降200美元 投资咨询业务资格: サ 工业与周期组 究 证监许可【2012】669号 安婕锐 武嘉路 员 从业资格号:F03100682 从业资格号:F03117373 投资咨询号: Z0021085 投资咨询号: Z0022651 OCEAN: 29日下午, CMA2月15日后线上运价下调200美元/FEU至2293美元/FEU,报价沿用至2月下旬;达飞对2月下半月运价位于 2293-2493美元/FEU波动,较上半月小幅调降。 MSC&PA:线上报价维持2235-2340美元/FEU 地缘方面，据央视新闻报道、特朗普对伊朗再发威胁,而据新华网报道、伊朗方面称一旦美方采取任何军事行动,伊朗将立即反 击,打击以色列核心区域。 交易逻辑:地缘情绪叠加欧洲近期冬季强降雪或有可能影响返程船期，带动盘面情绪偏强；近月方面，淡季运价下跌仍有压制, GMA2月下半月再降200美元/FEU证实节前降价揽货的弱现实、而地缘如进一步恶化,或对06及远月合约形成进一步中枢抬升逻辑。后续 关注如地缘维持紧张,06合约或仍跟随波动。2 ...

三期货有限公司 Company Limited 美元指数破位下行,铜价再度刷新历史新高 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 最新动态及原因 近期期价延续偏强走势，伦铜价格一度突破14000美元/吨，沪铜价格通近1110元/吨关口，铜价再次刷新历史新高。消息面上来看，根据财联比消息美国南方铜业公司预计2020年铜产量/下 滑至9.1.14万吨，钢矿紧张的逻辑再次发酵。另外，近期美元指数持续下探、市场对美联储独立作与财政状况的担忧加剧，美元指数于近期最低下明96，已经创造2022年以来最低值，美元指数 的回落造成货币屑性较强的商品受到资金青睐，而今年1月份以来铜价涨幅略微落后于金银，基于铜陵好的基本面，铜价短期存在补涨需求，这使得铜价在今日录得较大涨幅。 风险因素:政策风险;美联储降息不及预期;宏观经济衰退;冶炼厂减产不及预期 研究员: 郑非凡 从业资格号:F03088415 投资咨询号:Z0016667 张 远 从业资格号:F03147334 投资咨询号:Z0022750 投资咨询号:Z0022534 王美丹 从业资格号:F03141853 鹰要提示。本报告非报货交易咨询业务项下服务。其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用 ...

中信期货 36 33 1300 30 1250 27 24 1200 21 1150 18 1100 15 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 美国原油产量(万桶/日) 2023 2024 2022 2025 =2026 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 EIA周度数据:炼厂加速降负,汽柴累库放缓 | 2026年1月29日 | 能源化工组 李云旭 | 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: | 从业资格号 | 和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会 因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场 | | 证监许可【2012】669号 | F03141405 | 有风险,投资需谨慎。 | | | 投资咨询号 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, the current situation is a combination of "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations." The recovery of domestic demand is slow, and the support for risk - assets from the domestic fundamentals is limited in the short - term. Overseas, the macro - environment is still favorable for the resilience of risk - assets, but policy uncertainty is increasing, leading to greater differentiation in asset pricing. In terms of asset allocation, it is recommended to over - allocate long positions in domestic mid - cap style equities, specifically the CSI 500 stock index futures; maintain a neutral stance on national bonds and standard - allocate long positions in 2 - year national bond futures; standard - allocate long positions in precious metals; over - allocate long positions in non - ferrous metals; and adopt a range - trading strategy for the black sector [14]. - For different sectors, most varieties are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, with some showing a volatile upward or downward trend [15][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 28, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4,732.8, with a daily increase of 0.14%, a weekly increase of 0.5%, and a monthly increase of 2.89%. The Shanghai 50 futures price was 3,069.8, with a daily increase of 0.01%, a weekly increase of 1.05%, and a monthly increase of 1.48%. The CSI 500 futures price was 8,622, with a daily increase of 0.62%, a weekly decrease of 0.42%, and a monthly increase of 17.1%. The CSI 1000 futures price was 8,377.8, with a daily increase of 0.1%, a weekly decrease of 1.63%, and a monthly increase of 12.66% [2]. - **National Bond Futures**: The 2 - year national bond futures price was 102.394, with a daily increase of 0.01%, a weekly decrease of 0.02%, and a monthly decrease of 0.06%. The 5 - year national bond futures price was 105.87, with a daily increase of 0.05%, a weekly decrease of 0.01%, and a monthly increase of 0.1%. The 10 - year national bond futures price was 108.21, with a daily increase of 0.03%, a weekly increase of 0.01%, and a monthly increase of 0.32%. The 30 - year national bond futures price was 112.09, with a daily increase of 0.07%, a weekly decrease of 0.19%, and a monthly increase of 0.61% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 95.7725, with a daily decrease of 1.32%, a weekly decrease of 1.78%, and a monthly decrease of 2.54%. The US dollar central parity rate was 6.9545 pips, with a daily increase of 3, a weekly decrease of 87, and a monthly decrease of 345 [2]. 2. Fluctuations in Popular Industries - On January 28, 2026, among various industries, non - ferrous metals had the highest daily increase of 6.02%, with a weekly increase of 10.59% and a monthly increase of 31.19%. The defense and military industry had a daily decrease of 1.71%, a weekly decrease of 4.62%, and a monthly increase of 7.96%. The banking industry had a daily decrease of 0.63%, a weekly decrease of 0.33%, and a monthly decrease of 7.3% [5]. 3. Fluctuations in Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: On January 27, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was priced at $62.57, with a daily increase of 3.2%, a weekly increase of 2.11%, and a monthly increase of 8.99%. ICE Brent crude oil was priced at $66.76, with a daily increase of 3.07%, a weekly increase of 2.02%, and a monthly increase of 9.6% [8]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold was priced at $5,179.6, with a daily increase of 1.91%, a weekly increase of 3.94%, and a monthly increase of 19.56%. COMEX silver was priced at $112.345, with a daily decrease of 2.74%, a weekly increase of 8.8%, and a monthly increase of 58.28% [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper was priced at $13,006.5, with a daily decrease of 1.46%, a weekly decrease of 0.93%, and a monthly increase of 4.08%. LME aluminum was priced at $3,207, with a daily increase of 0.58%, a weekly increase of 1.06%, and a monthly increase of 7.01% [8]. 4. Macro Highlights - **Domestic Macro**: The current domestic macro - situation is a combination of "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations." The recovery of domestic demand is slow, price levels remain low, and credit repair mainly relies on the government and policy tools. The policy is in an observation and verification stage, and the improvement in physical work and demand is more likely to be concentrated in the first quarter. In the short - term, the direct support from domestic fundamentals for risk - assets is limited [14]. - **Overseas Macro**: Overseas, the demand is weakening marginally, inflation is falling slowly, and policy uncertainty is increasing. The US consumption has some resilience, but its internal driving force is weakening. The core inflation is cooling, but the decline is not smooth. The market's focus has shifted to the expectation of the Fed's leadership change, increasing policy uncertainty [14]. - **Large - scale Assets**: It is recommended to over - allocate long positions in domestic mid - cap style equities (CSI 500 stock index futures), standard - allocate long positions in 2 - year national bond futures, standard - allocate long positions in precious metals, over - allocate long positions in non - ferrous metals, and adopt a range - trading strategy for the black sector [14]. 5. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate upwards, stock index options are expected to fluctuate, and national bond futures are expected to fluctuate [15]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate upwards, but short - term volatility risks should be noted [15]. - **Shipping Sector**: Container shipping on European routes is expected to fluctuate [15]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to fluctuate, with some showing a volatile upward or downward trend [15]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to fluctuate, with some showing a volatile upward trend, such as copper, aluminum, nickel, etc. [15]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Most energy and chemical varieties are expected to fluctuate, and some agricultural products such as corn/starch, live pigs, etc. are expected to fluctuate downwards, while cotton is expected to fluctuate upwards [17]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, with some showing a volatile upward or downward trend [17].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-01-29 美伊关系⾛向仍有不确定，原油及化⼯ 延续震荡整理 美伊关系可能面临重大变化，原油价格近期将维持较高波动率。彭博 报道，1月28日美国总统特朗普警告伊朗，与美国达成协议的时间已经所 剩不多，并表示一支进入该地区的美国军舰编队已准备好"以速度和迅猛 之势"完成任务；特朗普表示，伊朗回到谈判桌前，就一项"公平公正的 协议——不能有核武器"展开谈判。伊朗日产原油330万桶，所在区域也 是诸多产油国云集，美伊和谈或是决裂将成为原油市场短期走势的关键。 原油短期供给端也受到了一些天气端的扰动，主要在北美区域。投资者以 震荡思路对待油价。（上述信息均来自彭博终端。） 板块逻辑： 化工产业链整体延续震荡格局。当前化工产业链尚不能说空头力量云 集的一个重要原因是，下游也出现了价格的同步抬升，这种涨幅可能不及 盘面的原料，但也能勉强跟随，这表现在聚酯、苯乙烯和聚烯烃的下游。 化工中格局偏弱的是甲醇，当前占据甲醇需求50%的MTO装置开工位于五年 最低，甲醇港口库存位于五年最高，而冬季即将过去，伊朗停车的装置也 将在2-3月间重启 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-1-29 鸽派预期再定价，⾦价加速创历史新⾼ 对更鸽派、独⽴性边际弱化的美联储预期持续升温，叠加主权债与货币避 险需求外溢，推动贵⾦属再度加速上⾏。⻩⾦在配置资⾦主导下突破关键 整数位并放量⾛⾼；⽩银跟随放⼤弹性，但交易与波动⻛险同步抬升，结 构分化进⼀步显现。 黄金观点：趋势性上行延续并再创新高，货币政策预期与避险配置形 成共振，短期关注波动率抬升。 逻辑：市场对未来货币政策更趋宽松的再定价持续推进，围绕下一任 美联储主席的鸽派预期升温，强化无息资产吸引力。与此同时，主权 债与货币承压、地缘不确定性抬升，资金加速流向黄金等避险资产， 推动金价上破5400美元/盎司并放量上行。配置端与期权端同步反映 对上行风险的定价意愿，黄金在贵金属中继续体现低波动、强趋势特 征。 （以上新闻和数据均来自彭博终端） 展望：在货币政策预期、避险配置与去信用化叙事共振下，黄金中期 逻辑稳固。短期或伴随波动率抬升与获利回吐，但回调阶段仍具配置 吸引力。 白银观点：高弹性上涨延续但波动显著放大，交易层面约束上升，短 期更偏震荡消化。 逻辑： 白银 ...