| 41 中信期货 CITIC Futures | | 海外扰动暂息, | 甲醇回归基本面显著下行 | 2026/02/02 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 杨家明 | | 杨晓宇 | 杨黎 | 投资咨询业务资格: | | 从业资格号:F3046931 | | 从业资格号:F03086737 | 从业资格号:F03147405 | 证监许可 2012】669号 | | 研 | 投资咨询号:Z0015448 | 投资咨询号:Z0020561 | 投资咨询号:Z0022768 | | | ਸ | | | | | | 陈子昂 | | 尹伊君 | 李云旭 | | | 从业资格号:F03108012 | | 从业资格号:F03107980 | 从业资格号:F03141405 | | | 投资咨询号:Z0021454 | | 投资咨询号:Z0021451 | 投资咨询号:Z0021671 | | 甲醇: 2026年2月2日甲醇主力合约跌幅3.92%,收于2252元/吨。 近期中东局势再度缓和,叠加美国天气回暖当地天然气价格回落。外盘甲醇成本支撑减弱。海外扰动暂缓下,沿海甲醇回归偏弱 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 大类资产集体调整，贵金属剧烈波动 ——中信期货晨报20260203 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 | 2026-02-02 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 年度涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 殷指 | 炉深300用货 | 4577. 4 | -2.66 | -2. 84 | -2. 84 | -0. 49 | -0. 49 | | | 上证50期货 | 3004. 2 | -2. 28 | -2. 27 | -2. 27 | -0. 69 | -0. 69 | | | 中证500期货 | 7903. 2 | -4. 79 | -5. 49 | -5. 49 | 7.34 | 7 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-03 油⽓价格回落，化⼯成本⽀撑减弱 据路透，特朗普表示伊朗正与华盛顿进行对话，美伊局势缓和预期带 动原油地缘溢价快速回落。另一方面，路透显示美国气温趋缓带动天然气 高位回落，前期取暖需求及油气替代的利多因素同步消退。Kpler数据显 示2月1日当周全球原油库存自低点大幅回升，随着CPC发运量底部回升， 俄罗斯港口原油发运量已回升至同期高位，路透显示目前哈萨克斯坦油田 仍处复产期，2月1日前已恢复20%产能。原油现实层面的供应压力仍在， 美伊局势主导短线波动，若地缘担忧持续缓和，仍存向下压力，对油化工 可能形成阶段性拖累。 板块逻辑： 原油价格下挫，2月2日能化板块中油品系跌幅居首。聚酯开工快速回 落，PTA加工费阶段性承压，纯苯及苯乙烯后续存去库预期，价格预计震 荡偏强。伊朗担忧减弱后，甲醇、燃料油均有地缘溢价消退，烯烃端虽年 内仍面临供应增量，但短期存在检修支撑。整体来看，化工预计表现震 荡，持续关注成本端指引。（以上数据及信息来源为路透、隆众及CCF） 原油：供应压力仍在，地缘主导节奏 沥青：原油重挫，沥青期 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-02-03 股市避险等待，债市⻓端震荡 研究员: 股指期货：商品流动性踩踏向股市传导，短期避险等待。 股指期权：期权对冲情绪凸显，反弹博弈暂不显著。 国债期货：债市⻓端⾛势偏强。 股指期货⽅⾯，商品流动性踩踏向股市传导，短期避险等待。周一市 场集中计价流动性踩踏，主要受外盘商品传导。上周五夜盘，国际金价、 银价继续大幅回撤，交易多头拥挤，和担忧沃什上任后缩表+降息，美联 储减少长债购买，令美国利率曲线陡峭化，抬升长端利率水平，美元或重 新走强，逆转了之前的交易逻辑。周一国内开盘，商品继续计价外盘跌 幅，金、银、碳酸锂、锡、镍、铜等品种罕见跌停，连锁反应印证流动性 危机，期货期权杠杆强平又加速了这一负反馈。虽然国内中期通胀主线仍 成立，但短期流动性踩踏下，需回避波动风险，市场风格有向价值、红利 切换的迹象，建议IC多单切换至IH多单或降仓进行防御。同时考虑到"春 躁"仍有时间，后续关注板块补涨机会，高景气内部或从周期切向科技， 后市考虑仓位切换至IM多单，观察有色金属降波和价格企稳的积极信号。 股指期权⽅⾯，期权对冲情绪 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-02-03 有色恐慌杀跌，关注下游买盘 铜观点：美元指数反弹，铜价⼤幅回落。 氧化铝观点：减产预期博弈过剩现实，氧化铝价震荡运⾏。 铝观点：资⾦情绪反复，铝价⼤幅回调。 铝合⾦观点：盘⾯跟随铝锭，价格有所回落。 锌观点：有⾊板块杀跌，锌价⾼位回落。 铅观点：有⾊板块承压但成本⽀撑较⾼，铅价震荡下⾏。 镍观点：有⾊板块集体回调，镍价⼤幅下挫。 不锈钢观点：镍价⼤幅回调，不锈钢盘⾯⾛弱。 锡观点：市场情绪偏弱，锡价延续调整。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊观点：有⾊恐慌杀跌，关注下游买盘 交易逻辑：据财联社消息，1月美联储利率决议符合预期，鲍威尔称接下 来降息路径仍取决于经济数据表现，这给降息预期改善提供了空间，但特 朗普提名的下届美联储主席出乎市场预期，投资者对沃仕印象解读为鹰 派，美元指数快速反抽，贵金属杀跌引发有色整体恐慌，资金短期大幅撤 离，整体上看，宏观面预期出现反复，关注美联储降息预期变化。原料端 延续偏紧局面；冶炼端仍有扰动预期，整体供应端支撑 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 ⼯业硅观点：市场情绪反复，硅价震荡运⾏。 多晶硅观点：政策预期反复，多晶硅价格延续震荡。 碳酸锂观点：资⾦情绪悲观，锂价明显回调。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2026-02-03 恐慌性情绪蔓延，碳酸锂领跌新能源金 属 新能源观点：恐慌性情绪蔓延，碳酸锂领跌新能源⾦属 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需供需延续偏紧格局，江西部分锂矿复产预期继 续延后，供应扰动担忧持续；工业硅和多晶硅供需趋松，但工业硅和 多晶硅企业主动控制产量适应走弱的需求。短期来看，有色整体恐慌 情绪蔓延到新能源金属，碳酸锂领跌新能源金属；中期来看，政策预 期反复，新能源金属宽幅震荡。长期来看，硅供应端收缩预期较强， 尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，但需求 预期也在不断拔高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，供需改善预期将推高价 格重心。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号Z0021455 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a long - term view of a bullish trend for platinum and palladium, with a medium - to - long - term expectation of prices trending upwards in a volatile manner [2][3][4] Core View - The precious metals market sentiment was pressured, and prices significantly corrected due to Kevin Warsh's nomination as the Fed Chair and CME's increase in margin standards. As of February 2, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 552.15 yuan/gram, a decline of 16.0%, and the GFEX palladium main contract was 413.7 yuan/gram, also a 16.0% decline [1] - For platinum, although short - term factors pressure the price, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand and macro logic remain unchanged. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and then consider low - buying opportunities, and also pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities if the spread widens. The supply in South Africa has risks, and the demand in various fields is expanding [2] - For palladium, the short - term price corrected due to market sentiment cooling, and the long - term supply - demand is becoming looser, but the short - term price bottom is stable. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize before considering low - buying [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Price Movement**: The GFEX platinum main contract closed at 552.15 yuan/gram on February 2, 2026, with a 16.0% decline [1] - **Main Logic**: Kevin Warsh's nomination and CME's margin increase pressured the price. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand and macro logic remain unchanged. South Africa has supply risks, and demand in various fields is expanding [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term investors should wait and see. After the price stabilizes, consider low - buying. Also, pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities if the spread widens [2] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be volatile and upward - trending in the medium - to - long - term, and short - term fluctuations are affected by gold and silver trends [3] Palladium - **Price Movement**: The GFEX palladium main contract closed at 413.7 yuan/gram on February 2, 2026, with a 16.0% decline [1] - **Main Logic**: Short - term market sentiment decline led to price correction. Long - term supply - demand is becoming looser, but short - term price bottom is stable due to factors like tight spot supply [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait for the market to stabilize before considering low - buying [4] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be volatile and upward - trending in the medium - to - long - term, and short - term fluctuations are affected by gold and silver trends [4] Commodity Index - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2420.95, down 3.75%; the commodity 20 index was 2773.66, down 4.55%; the industrial products index was 2312.70, down 2.62% on February 2, 2026 [51] Plate Index - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On February 2, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2709.50, with a daily decline of 5.11%, a 5 - day decline of 4.88%, a 1 - month increase of 0.88%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.88% [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is gradually emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures market follows the market sentiment and weakens. The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, and the iron ore market is under pressure from high shipments and high inventory, while pre - holiday restocking in the demand side supports the ore price. The first round of price increase for coke has been implemented, Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level, but there is an expectation of supply tightening for coking coal before the Spring Festival, and the futures market fluctuates sharply. There are disturbances in the glass supply, but the oversupply situation continues to limit the upside space of the glass futures market. Overall, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster, there is pressure above the futures price, but the restocking intensity before the Spring Festival still exists, and the subsequent resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to further boost the restocking expectation, and the cost side still has support. It is expected that the sector will oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [1][2][5] 3. Summary of Each Category 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and arrivals continued to weaken. Due to the impact of weather, there is an expectation of supply disturbances. On the demand side, iron - making water production decreased slightly month - on - month, steel mills' profitability weakened, rigid demand was stable, and steel mills' restocking accelerated before the Spring Festival, but the support for prices may gradually weaken as restocking progresses. Port inventory continued to accumulate, and the overall inventory pressure is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [6][7] - **Scrap Steel**: Both supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As restocking nears the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and it is expected that the spot price will mainly follow the finished products [8] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been fully implemented, and coking profits have improved significantly. The overall supply change is limited. On the demand side, steel - mill blast furnaces are in a state of both resumption and maintenance, and iron - making water production remains high, with strong rigid demand support. The inventory in steel mills has increased steadily. The supply growth space is limited, and the downstream steel - mill resumption expectation still exists. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the fundamental bullish driving force is also limited. The spot is expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost side (coking coal) [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: The domestic supply is temporarily stable, and Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level. The downstream winter - storage restocking is still in progress, and the upstream coal - mine inventory is being continuously digested. As the winter - storage inventory gradually reaches the target, the spot - market sentiment has cooled down, and the online auctions show mixed results, with the overall coal price weakly stable. The futures market oscillates due to the impact of capital - sentiment fluctuations. Before the Spring Festival, domestic coal - mine production will gradually decline, the fundamentals will remain healthy, but the fundamental bullish driving force is limited. The spot is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuation of the futures - market sentiment remains to be observed [12] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures market rises to a high level, it will face selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main contract will mainly oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of raw - material prices and the change in manufacturers' production - control intensity [15] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The supply - and - demand situation is weak, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The low trading activity before the Spring Festival suppresses the upside space of the futures market. It is expected that the futures price will mainly oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and settlement electricity prices, as well as the production - control trends in the main production areas [16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has an expectation of disturbances, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Currently, the supply - and - demand situation is still in oversupply. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13] - **Soda Ash**: The daily production is continuously at a high level, and restocking is nearing the end. The overall supply - and - demand situation is still in oversupply. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply situation will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - Gold's short - term price may continue to adjust, but its long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Silver also enters a short - term adjustment period with high volatility risks, and its long - term upward support is still strong. The "Wash trade" is a short - term catalyst for the market adjustment, but it is difficult to cause a trend - based negative impact on precious metals [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Sections Gold Analysis - **View**: Short - term enters an adjustment period after overheating, while the long - term upward logic remains intact [2]. - **Logic**: The sharp decline in gold prices is mainly due to technical adjustments caused by overcrowded long - positions and the "Wash trade". Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, was nominated as the next Fed chair on January 30, and his hawkish stance (supporting rate cuts but also advocating balance - sheet reduction) led to market concerns. However, his nomination is unlikely to cause a long - term negative impact on precious metals [2]. - **Outlook**: Gold's long - term upward trend is still supported [2]. Silver Analysis - **View**: Short - term enters an adjustment period, and high - volatility risks should be watched out for [3]. - **Logic**: The sharp decline in silver prices is due to technical corrections caused by over - buying and crowded trading, and the "Wash trade" has intensified the adjustment. The decline in the London silver spot leasing rate and the reduction in global silver ETF holdings also slow down the bullish drivers on the spot side [3]. - **Outlook**: Silver still has strong long - term bullish support [3]. Market Indexes - **Special Indexes**: On February 2, 2026, the commodity index was 2420.95, down 3.75%; the commodity 20 index was 2773.66, down 4.55%; the industrial products index was 2312.70, down 2.62% [45]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On February 2, 2026, the precious metals index was 4447.17, with a daily decline of 11.27%, a 5 - day decline of 10.91%, a one - month increase of 16.29%, and a year - to - date increase of 16.29% [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the entire industry is provided in the report. However, individual outlooks for each commodity are as follows: - Oils and Fats: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to trade sideways [6]. - Protein Meal: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to trade sideways [9]. - Corn and Starch: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias [12]. - Hogs: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias in the short - term, with potential for a turnaround in H2 2026 [13]. - Natural Rubber: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias [17]. - Synthetic Rubber: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the medium - term [19]. - Cotton: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the long - and medium - terms [20]. - Sugar: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias in the long - and medium - terms [21]. - Pulp: Expected to trade sideways [22]. - Double - Gum Paper: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias [24]. - Logs: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the short - term [25]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has turned negative recently, affecting the prices of various agricultural products. - Different agricultural products are influenced by a combination of macro factors, supply - demand fundamentals, and seasonal patterns [1][6][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **View**: Macro sentiment has weakened, leading to a significant correction in oil prices. - **Logic**: Crude oil decline and overall commodity market weakness have affected sentiment. For soybeans, Argentina's drought may reduce production, while the US biodiesel policy is yet to be finalized. Palm oil lacks new positive news after the previous rally. Rapeseed oil supply is expected to gradually recover. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to trade sideways. Consider buying on dips for hedging [6]. Protein Meal - **View**: Market sentiment is weak, and both soybean and rapeseed meals are trading lower. - **Logic**: Internationally, the macro environment has cooled, and the US soybean export is weak, while Brazil's harvest is increasing. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal is under pressure, and the supply of rapeseed meal is expected to improve. - **Outlook**: Both soybean and rapeseed meals are expected to trade sideways [8][9]. Corn and Starch - **View**: Pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end, and both futures and spot prices are trading weakly. - **Logic**: Downstream stocking is almost finished, and policy - grain auctions have lower trading rates. There are marginal negative factors such as increased upstream sales, sufficient downstream inventory, and the impact of imported grains. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias [9][11][12]. Hogs - **View**: At the beginning of the month, the slaughter volume is slightly reduced, but inventory pressure remains. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large hogs will be slaughtered as the Spring Festival approaches. In the medium - term, supply will be excessive until April 2026. In the long - term, supply pressure may ease after May 2026. Demand and inventory show certain changes. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias in the short - term, with potential for a turnaround in H2 2026 [13]. Natural Rubber - **View**: The commodity atmosphere has turned negative, and rubber prices have followed suit. - **Logic**: The previous rally was driven by macro factors, and there has been no change in fundamentals. The current trading is mainly influenced by macro factors. Supply is relatively abundant, and the demand has not seen large - scale restocking. The most obvious negative factor is rapid inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: Although fundamental variables are limited, market attention has increased, and the market is expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias [15][16][17]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The medium - term logic remains unchanged. - **Logic**: The market was affected by the overall commodity sentiment, but the medium - term core logic of tight supply of butadiene in H1 2026 remains. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand situation of butadiene is expected to improve, but short - term adjustments are needed. It is expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the medium - term [19]. Cotton - **View**: It has adjusted downward following macro expectations, but the downward space is expected to be limited. - **Logic**: Supply - side processing is nearing completion, demand is weakening as the Spring Festival approaches, and inventory is still accumulating but at a slower pace. In the long - term, the market is expected to be tight - balanced in 25/26, and the planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decline. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the long - and medium - terms. Consider buying on dips [20]. Sugar - **View**: It is expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias in the long - and medium - terms. - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with major producers expected to increase production. - **Outlook**: Consider short - selling on rallies [21]. Pulp - **View**: While most commodities have declined significantly, pulp has shown resistance. - **Logic**: The overall commodity market has affected pulp, but its decline is relatively limited. Demand is seasonally weakening, and there are more negative factors, but the increase in import costs provides some support. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade sideways [22]. Double - Gum Paper - **View**: The decline in the commodity market has put pressure on double - gum paper. - **Logic**: The market is following the macro trend. Before the Spring Festival, there is no clear upward or downward driver, with abundant supply, weak demand, and reduced cost support. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias [24]. Logs - **View**: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the market is trading strongly. - **Logic**: The expected increase in the next - period foreign quotation and the decrease in arrivals at major ports have led to a stronger spot market. There are also potential positive factors in the delivery aspect. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the short - term [25]. 4. Commodity Index Data - On February 2, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities was 2420.95, down 3.75%. The commodity 20 index was 2773.66, down 4.55%, and the industrial products index was 2312.70, down 2.62%. - The agricultural products index was 936.74 on February 2, 2026, with a daily decline of 0.79%, a 5 - day decline of 0.76%, a monthly increase of 0.40%, and a YTD increase of 0.40% [185][187].