投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-03-13 股市短期调整，债市全线上涨 股指期货：短期调整不改中期机会 股指期权：续持买权防御为主 国债期货：国债期货全线上涨 股指期货方面，短期调整不改中期机会。昨日沪深两市边际转弱，大 小盘风格趋于均衡，但价值整体偏强。板块方面，煤炭、石油、化工等资 源品领涨，高弹性的科技、军工板块领跌，结构分化严重。受地缘风险长 期化顾虑，以及IEA缓和措施低于市场预期的双重影响，导致昨日盘前能 源价格再度回升，通胀担忧推动美元指数重新逼近100、直接抑制内外风 险偏好。对于后市，我们延续看长、做长思路，等待地缘缓和，逢低寻找 中期补仓机会，要点在于：1）近期两市量能维持2.3万亿以上，且融资余 额未明显减少、流动性尚可，或暗示市场情绪可控；2）科创50ET持仓量P CR趋于中期底部，成交额PCR/成交量PCR处于高位，指引市场情绪或阶段 性触底，后续再回调或是进一步低吸机会；3）盘后公布"十五五"规划 纲要，对科技、能源、商航等明确重点部署任务，指引后续财政预算和资 金投放方向，有望提振相关行业景气度。短期维持IM半仓多单，等 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts and iron ore supply disturbances have led to a strong cost side, with high energy valuations and tight liquidity expectations for some iron ore spot varieties. Although iron - water production has dropped due to environmental restrictions, there is an upward expectation during the peak season. The prices of iron ore and coking coal are likely to rise and difficult to fall, which boosts the sector's valuation. However, the off - season fundamentals lack highlights, and the peak - season expectations are cautious, with limited upward drive from the real end. Attention should be paid to geopolitical and iron ore supply disturbances [1][2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Short - term oscillation is expected, but the high - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term, maintaining a loose pattern. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure will be large, and the medium - term performance is expected to be weakly oscillating [2][10] - **Scrap Steel**: The short - term supply - and - demand pattern of the scrap - steel market has marginally improved, with demand recovery slightly faster than supply. The fundamentals support the price. Driven by the rise in finished - product prices, scrap steel is expected to follow the upward trend, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the price rebound and the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [2][12] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, although iron - water production is disturbed, there is still long - term rigid demand support. After the first round of price cuts, the possibility of continuous multiple - round cuts is small. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal. If the geopolitical conflict persists, it may be strong with energy prices; if it eases, it will oscillate [3][13] - **Coking Coal**: The resumption of coal - mine production is limited, but with high Mongolian coal imports, there is real - world pressure on the fundamentals. The spot market is expected to oscillate. The futures price is affected by macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts. If the conflict persists, it may follow crude - oil prices; if it eases, it will oscillate [3][14] 3.3 Alloys - **Silicomanganese (MnSi)**: The market supply and demand are loose, with high upstream inventory. There is resistance in cost transmission, and there is significant selling - hedging pressure above the futures price. When the futures price rises above the cost line, there is a risk of a high - level correction [3][18] - **Ferrosilicon (FeSi)**: Currently, the supply - and - demand contradiction is not significant, but the continuous profit repair may accelerate the resumption of production, making the supply - and - demand relationship gradually loose. The current futures valuation is higher than the comprehensive cost, and attention should be paid to the risk of a high - level correction [3][20] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. The current supply and demand are in surplus. If production and sales do not improve continuously, high inventory will always suppress prices, and short - term oscillation is expected [7][15] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply and demand are in surplus. Short - term oscillation is expected, and in the long run, the surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [7][17] 3.5 Steel - After the festival, downstream demand has gradually started, and price rebounds have stimulated the entry of futures and spot markets and rigid - demand restocking. The production of rebar has increased significantly, but the production of hot - rolled coils has decreased. The overall supply of the five major steel products is still low. Demand shows resilience but lacks highlights. Steel inventory continues to accumulate, but at a slower pace. The upward price increase is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and peak - season demand [9] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 12, 2026, the comprehensive index, special index (including commodity 20 index, industrial product index, PPI commodity index), and plate index (steel industry chain index) all showed varying degrees of increase [105][106]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report downgrades the previous recommendation of over - allocating stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals to equal - weight, and relatively recommends allocating TS and TF [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the domestic commodity futures market, most contracts closed higher, with energy products leading the gains. Low - sulfur fuel oil rose 14.83%, and other sectors also showed different trends [1]. - For the US dollar monetary policy expectations, it's important to judge the stage of the current geopolitical conflict, which affects the market's long - term inflation and economic judgments. The Fed will respond when long - term inflation expectations change. It's too early to discuss the duration of the war, and a neutral scenario is recommended as the benchmark for asset allocation [1]. - After the release of the "Report", the market's policy expectations for the first half of the year will gradually converge, and then shift to the verification stage of real data [1]. - In the short term, the performance of stock indices may enter a shock - adjustment period, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by the unfalsifiable expectation of tightened monetary conditions. Investors are advised to pay attention to geopolitical events and domestic economic data before re - evaluating asset cost - effectiveness and portfolio construction strategies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions - **Domestic Commodity Futures**: Most contracts closed higher, with energy products leading the gains. Low - sulfur fuel oil rose 14.83%, asphalt in chemicals rose 5.68%, PVC in non - metallic building materials rose 4.40%, the container shipping index (European line) in shipping futures rose 3.07%, palm oil in oils and fats rose 2.43%, coking coal in the black series rose 2.13%, eggs in agricultural and sideline products rose 0.58%, industrial silicon in new energy materials rose 0.41%, Shanghai silver in precious metals fell 2.51%, and Shanghai tin in base metals fell 0.89% [1]. - **Financial Market**: The CSI 300 futures fell 0.5%, the SSE 50 futures fell 0.52%, the CSI 500 futures fell 0.74%, and the CSI 1000 futures fell 0.46%. The 2 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.01%, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.01%, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.03%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.05%. The US dollar index rose 0.32%, and other indices also showed different changes [7]. - **Industry Index**: The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rose 1.24%, the national defense and military industry index fell 2.39%, and other industry indices also had different daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual changes [8][9]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil rose 5.94%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 6.64%, COMEX gold fell 1.11%, and other overseas commodities also showed different price changes [10][11]. - **Domestic Main Commodities**: The container shipping index (European line) rose 3.2%, gold fell 0.34%, silver fell 0.88%, and other domestic commodities also had different price fluctuations [12][13][14]. 3.2 Asset Views - **Stock Indices**: Due to the convergence of policy boost expectations and overseas event shocks, stock indices may enter a shock - adjustment period, and it's necessary to observe domestic economic data to form the next round of trend [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and Precious Metals**: Constrained by the unfalsifiable expectation of tightened monetary conditions, their performance may be affected [1]. - **TS, TF**: Relatively recommended for allocation [1]. 3.3 Short - term Judgment of Each Variety - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to be shock - strong, stock index options are expected to be shock, and Treasury bond futures are expected to be shock [4]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be shock [4]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping European line is expected to be shock [4]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc., are mostly expected to be shock, with some varieties having a shock - weak tendency [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most varieties are expected to be shock, with some having a shock - strong tendency [4]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to be shock, with some having a shock - strong tendency [5]. - **Agriculture**: Oils, grains, and other varieties have different short - term trends, such as shock - strong, shock - weak, etc. [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On March 12, equity index futures dropped, and most commodities rose, with energy & chemicals leading the raise. In equity index futures, IC dropped 0.8%, and IH dropped 0.6%. In commodity futures, LSFO, Paraxylene, and Crude Oil were the top three gainers, while Apple, Silver, and Palladium were the top three decliners [10][11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On March 12, equity index futures dropped, and most commodities rose, with energy & chemicals leading the raise. IC dropped 0.8%, and IH dropped 0.6%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were LSFO, Paraxylene, and Crude Oil, and the top three decliners were Apple, Silver, and Palladium [10][11][12]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Crude Oil - On March 12, the Crude Oil main contract rose 11.3% to 722.3 yuan/barrel (INE). Strategic petroleum reserve releases will not reverse supply tightness expectations, leaving oil prices strong. Geopolitical uncertainty and passive production cuts will keep the market volatile and biased upward [18][20][21]. 1.2.2 LSFO - On March 12, the main contract of LSFO rose 14.8% to 5653 yuan/ton (INE). LSFO is pressured by green fuel substitution and limited HSFO replacement demand, but is currently undervalued and moves with crude oil. It has strong primary product attributes, and its crack spread strengthens when crude oil prices rise. Fundamentally, it enjoys a more favorable export tax rebate rate than refined oil products [25][26][27]. 1.2.3 Paraxylene - On March 12, the main contract of Paraxylene rose 13.0% to 10218 yuan/ton (ZCE). Cost increases have evolved into actual supply shocks, with force majeure declared at multiple refineries in the Asia - Pacific. Short - term prices will stay strong, and the medium - term logic of buying on dips holds. PX 05 - 09 month spread is recommended for positive calendar spread, and PXN is expected to trade range - bound between USD 250–330/ton [32][33][34]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - IEA Member States Agree to Release 400 Million Barrels of Oil Reserves. The 32 member states of the International Energy Agency will release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves. - U.S. to Release 172 Million Barrels from Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The U.S. will start releasing 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve next week, which is expected to take about 120 days. - U.S. February CPI Rises 2.4% YoY, Core CPI Up 2.5% YoY. U.S. CPI rose 2.4% year - on - year in February, and core CPI increased 2.5% year - on - year. The market still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again as early as July. - U.S. to Launch Section 301 Investigations Against 16 Trading Partners. The U.S. will launch Section 301 investigations against 16 trading partners, including China, the European Union, Mexico, Vietnam, India, and Japan [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Multiple agricultural products are maintaining a relatively strong performance. The price trends of various agricultural products are influenced by multiple factors, including geopolitical issues in the Middle East, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes [1]. - The short - term uncertainty in the Middle East situation is high, and the high - level operation of crude oil has led to a risk of increased costs for vegetable oils. There is an expected increase in biodiesel demand, and it is recommended to focus on the phased low - level buying strategy [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Crude oil and the external market are strong, boosting the trend of oils and fats. The price trends are highly correlated with the evolution of the Middle East situation, and there is uncertainty in short - term price fluctuations due to the repeated war situation. The fundamentals have both positive and negative factors, and short - term capital is relatively optimistic [1][5]. - **Logic**: Geopolitically, the Middle East situation affects market expectations and oil supply. For soybean oil, the US biodiesel policy is expected to be clarified, and there are concerns about South American soybean shipments to China. For palm oil, Indonesia is accelerating B50 biodiesel tests, and Malaysia's early - March export data is positive, but there is a risk of price decline if production continues to increase and the Middle East conflict eases. For rapeseed oil, it is expected that rapeseed will be concentrated for arrival and crushing from March to May, and domestic inventories will gradually accumulate [1][5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend. It is recommended to focus on phased low - level buying strategies [1][5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The market anticipates the auction of imported soybeans, causing funds to flow out and the prices of double - meal to open high and close low [1][5]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the March supply - demand report was uneventful, and the focus is on the Middle East conflict, which potentially benefits biodiesel demand and supports the high - level operation of US soybean futures. Domestically, the spot price has slightly increased due to concerns about short - term supply shortages, but high prices suppress demand. The market anticipates the auction of imported soybeans, leading to a high - opening and low - closing of the soybean meal market [5][6]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the development of the Middle East situation [6]. 3.3 Corn - **View**: Corn futures are consolidating at a high level [1][7]. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are stable with a slight increase. The upstream supply pressure is limited, and the downstream has a certain demand for replenishing stocks. The speed of upstream supply is slower than the increase in downstream demand, resulting in a short - term tight supply situation [7][8]. - **Outlook**: Corn is expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend. In March, it is expected that the price increase will narrow, and attention should be paid to the capital movement in the futures market. In the medium - term, the overall trend is positive [8]. 3.4 Pigs - **View**: The supply of pigs is abundant, and the pig price is weak [1][8]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the planned daily slaughter volume in March has increased. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is still high. In the long - term, the process of reducing production capacity is not smooth. The post - holiday consumption is in the off - season, and the demand for pigs has decreased, while the slaughter pressure and inventory have increased [8][9]. - **Outlook**: The pig price is expected to fluctuate with a downward trend. In the first half of the year, the industry should consider short - selling hedging opportunities. It is expected that the pig cycle will gradually bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [9]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Natural rubber prices rose and then fell, remaining restricted below 17,500 yuan [1][10]. - **Logic**: The short - term trading logic is related to the Middle East geopolitical situation, which has a negative impact on downstream tire orders. The market sentiment is weak, and there is a need for price adjustment. However, due to the expected low - production period and stable downstream demand, the price is likely to rise rather than fall [10][11]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited variables, and the price will maintain a fluctuating trend [11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The expectation of limited cracking production still dominates the market [13]. - **Logic**: Affected by the strong performance of the chemical industry, BR prices have risen. The short - term trading logic has shifted to the geopolitical situation. As long as crude oil remains strong, the price of BR is likely to rise even though its fundamentals are weak [13]. - **Outlook**: The price will follow the sentiment of the sector. If crude oil prices continue to rise, the price will remain strong in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the rapid change in geopolitical sentiment [13]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Both domestic and foreign cotton prices are strengthening [14]. - **Logic**: Zhengzhou cotton has strengthened this week. The domestic cotton market is expected to be in a tight - balance state in the 25/26 season, and the commercial inventory is decreasing. There is a possibility of a decrease in the cotton - planting area in Xinjiang in 2026. The overseas market is expected to have a tighter supply - demand relationship in the next season [14]. - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend and are recommended for long - term allocation [14]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: The ongoing conflict in the Middle East and short - term oil price fluctuations continue to drive sugar prices to fluctuate [15]. - **Logic**: In the medium - to long - term, domestic and foreign sugar prices are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. In the short - term, the supply surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and sugar prices do not have the conditions for a continuous and substantial unilateral increase. However, oil price fluctuations may cause short - term price fluctuations [15][16]. - **Outlook**: Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate. The price range of the domestic market can be moderately widened to 5,100 - 5,500 yuan/ton [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Pulp prices are operating at a low level, and the futures performance is weak [17]. - **Logic**: The fundamentals show a pattern of weak current demand and strong seasonal expectations. The demand in the industry chain is not strong, but there is a seasonal improvement in demand in the future. The supply of broad - leaf pulp has a positive impact, while the high overseas inventory of coniferous pulp and stable import prices have a negative impact [17]. - **Outlook**: Pulp prices are expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend, maintaining a wide - range fluctuating pattern [17]. 3.10 Double - Gum Paper - **View**: Double - gum paper prices are fluctuating within a range [18]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, there is no clear upward or downward driving force. From March to April, the market is expected to see an increase in both supply and demand. In May, the price may decline due to publisher bargaining and weak social orders [18]. - **Outlook**: Double - gum paper prices are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to operate within the range of 4,000 - 4,400 yuan/ton [18]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: The post - holiday demand improvement is limited, and the transmission of spot price increases is average [19][20]. - **Logic**: The geopolitical situation has increased the cost of sea freight and affected the CFR quotes. The domestic spot price has increased, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. After a large number of logs arrive at ports in March and April, the domestic spot price may be under pressure [20]. - **Outlook**: Log prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The increase in overseas quotes has supported the domestic price, but the geopolitical situation is volatile [20]. 3.12 Commodity Index - On March 12, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities showed an increase. The special index, including the commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index, also had positive changes. The agricultural product index had a daily increase of 0.77%, a 5 - day increase of 2.50%, a 1 - month increase of 5.18%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.20% [183][184].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts increase energy valuation, and the expectation of stable growth provides support for domestic demand. Steel mills are expected to resume production during the peak season, leading to strong cost support and firm prices in the sector. However, there are still inventory contradictions in steel products, and the peak - season expectations are cautious. High inventory pressure in iron ore is difficult to relieve, Mongolian coal imports are high, the supply - demand surplus in glass and soda ash remains unchanged, and the fundamentals of alloys provide limited support. Thus, the upward potential of the futures prices is restricted [1] - In the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the peak - season expectations are cautious. The upward driving force from the real - world situation is limited. Uncertainties such as domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the futures prices may fluctuate sharply. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and the fulfillment of peak - season demand [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: The supply - side shipping has recovered but there are still expectations of disruptions. The high inventory pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term. With the Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, there are still macro uncertainties. Recently, commodities have shown strength. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be greater, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [1][8] - Scrap steel: The supply - demand pattern of the short - term scrap steel market, which was previously weak in both supply and demand, has marginally improved. The demand recovery rhythm is slightly faster than the supply, and the fundamentals provide some support for the price. Driven by the rise in finished - product prices, it is expected to follow the upward trend in the short term [9] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: In the short term, there are disturbances in hot metal production, but there is still long - term rigid demand support for coke. The possibility of multiple consecutive rounds of price cuts after the first round of spot price cuts is small. The futures prices are expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. If the geopolitical conflict persists, it may follow the energy prices and show strength; if the conflict eases, it is expected to maintain an oscillating operation [2][10] - Coking coal: The resumption of coal mine production is still restricted, but there is still real - world fundamental pressure on coking coal due to high Mongolian coal imports. The spot prices are expected to oscillate. The current futures prices are greatly affected by domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts. If the conflict persists, it may follow the crude oil prices and show strength; if the conflict eases, it is expected to maintain an oscillating operation [2][12] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand of the manganese silicon market is loose, the upstream inventory is high, and there are obstacles in cost transmission. There is obvious selling - hedging pressure above the futures prices. Attention should be paid to the risk of price correction when the futures prices rise above the cost line [2][15] - Ferrosilicon: Currently, there is not much supply - demand contradiction in ferrosilicon, but the continuous repair of profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, making the supply - demand relationship gradually turn loose. The current futures valuation is higher than the comprehensive cost of ferrosilicon, and attention should be paid to the risk of high - level price correction [2][17] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventories of middle - and downstream enterprises are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If the production and sales cannot improve continuously, the high inventory will always suppress the price [2][13] - Soda ash: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [2][15] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis - Steel: There is still cost support, and the futures prices have risen slightly. After the festival, downstream demand has gradually started, and price rebounds have stimulated the entry of futures - spot traders and rigid - demand replenishment. However, the overall supply level is low, demand is at a low level, and inventories are accumulating. The upward potential of prices is limited, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand [7] - Iron ore: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the futures prices oscillate. Overseas mine shipping has decreased, arrivals have increased, demand has declined in the short term but is expected to recover seasonally later. The inventory has increased slightly, and the futures prices oscillate. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamentals will face greater pressure [7][8] - Scrap steel: The supply - demand has marginally improved, and the spot prices have risen slightly. Supply recovery is slow, demand has recovered faster, and inventories have decreased. It is expected to follow the upward trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the finished - product price rebound and the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [9] - Coke: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the futures prices follow the oscillation. After the first round of price cuts, supply has decreased slightly, demand has rigid support, and inventories have accumulated at a slower pace. The futures prices follow the cost - side coking coal [10] - Coking coal: There is still a geopolitical premium, and the futures prices follow the oscillation. Supply has basically recovered, imports are high, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is general. The spot prices are expected to oscillate, and the futures prices are affected by macro and geopolitical factors [12] - Glass: The improvement in sentiment has driven the production and sales of spot products, and the upstream expects to reduce inventories. Supply may decline in the long term, demand has not fully recovered, and middle - stream inventories are large, suppressing the futures valuation. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [13] - Soda ash: Driven by the increase in energy costs, the price center has rebounded. Supply is stable at a high level, demand is stable, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [13][15] - Manganese silicon: The cost remains high, and the futures prices oscillate strongly. The cost has support, supply is relatively loose, demand recovery is slow, and there is selling - hedging pressure above the futures prices. Attention should be paid to the risk of price correction [15] - Ferrosilicon: The futures valuation is high, and attention should be paid to the risk of price correction. The cost has support, demand recovery is slow, supply is expected to increase, and the current futures valuation is higher than the cost. Attention should be paid to the risk of high - level price correction [17] 3.6 Index Information - On March 11, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures was 2565.65, a decrease of 0.28%; the commodity 20 index was 2921.03, a decrease of 0.32%; the industrial products index was 2484.54, a decrease of 1.01% [102] - The steel industry chain index on March 11, 2026, had a daily increase of 0.06%, a 5 - day increase of 1.85%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.24%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.55% [104]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The stock market maintains a moderately optimistic outlook, while the bond market shows weakness. Specifically, for stock index futures, maintain a moderately optimistic stance; for stock index options, continue to hold call options for defense; for treasury bond futures, the bond market is weak [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **View**: Maintain a moderately optimistic outlook. Yesterday, the equity market rose and then fell, with the ChiNext Index leading the gain by 1.31% and the CSI 300 rising by 0.64%. The large - cap style was generally strong. The new energy sectors such as photovoltaic and lithium - battery took turns to make up for the gains, while the technology sector declined. Due to the stalemate in the geopolitical conflict and the failure of energy mitigation measures, market risk appetite was suppressed, and funds quickly gathered towards certain themes. The negative public opinion caused by the OpenClaw security issue led to the adjustment of software and semiconductor sectors. The annual report performance of new energy and automobile stocks exceeded market expectations, indicating strong downstream demand, and institutions revealed price - increase expectations for lithium mines and photovoltaics, which catalyzed the industry switch of funds. Although the seesaw effect between short - term energy, the US dollar index, and the stock market is still obvious, both domestic and international markets are relatively restrained, suggesting the expectation of TACO and mitigation measures still exists. In operation, temporarily maintain a moderately optimistic attitude, hold half - position IM long positions, and wait for the risks to materialize before making a right - side attack [3][9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold IM [9]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **View**: Continue to hold call options for defense. Yesterday, the equity index fluctuated strongly. The overall form of option indicators was similar to that of the previous day. The trading volume of the varieties decreased slightly, and the option sentiment indicator, the position PCR, strengthened mainly. Combined with the natural decline of implied volatility, it shows that the market sentiment is relatively warm. However, considering the large recent market fluctuations, the trend - following effect of option - end indicators is stronger than the guiding effect, and the current option market is trading on volatility rather than simply on direction. Therefore, the option strategy will cautiously maintain the weekly report view, still suggesting to continue to hold call options for defense to protect the systematic risks of the overall position [4][9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold call options for defense [9]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **View**: The bond market is weak. Treasury bond futures fell across the board. The inter - bank bond market was generally weak yesterday, with the yields of most major interest - rate bonds rising slightly. The 30 - year main contract led the decline, pushing the yield curve to steepen. The inter - bank market funds were stable but slightly tightened. Although the overall market fund supply remained stable and the difficulty of institutional lending was limited, as the mid - month tax - payment time approached, the market funds might face certain phased pressure, but it was expected not to cause large - scale liquidity tension. The widening of the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was a significant feature of the bond market yesterday. The market was still worried about the possible inflation increase caused by the rising oil price. Coupled with the strong export data at the beginning of the year, the 30Y treasury bond performed worse than the 10Y treasury bond. In the short term, the situation in the Middle East is still very changeable, and the impact on inflation needs to be continuously observed. Inflation concerns may continue to disturb the bond market, and the bond market may continue the volatile market in the short term [5][9][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: volatile. Hedging strategy: pay attention to short - hedging at the low basis. Basis strategy: pay attention to the long - end positive arbitrage opportunity. Curve strategy: pay attention to the flattening of the 30Y - 10Y in the short term [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Precious metal prices declined, with silver's decline greater than gold's. Short - term profit - taking by investors, rising oil prices increasing inflation concerns, and a strengthening US dollar index jointly pressured precious metals. The US February CPI and core CPI data had limited impact. The Middle - East conflict complicated the Fed's policy path. Precious metals are expected to remain range - bound in the short term [2]. - Gold is expected to oscillate in the short term. Long - term outlook for gold is optimistic due to the weakening US dollar credit. If the market shifts to a stagflation trading logic, it will catalyze gold price increases [3]. - Silver is expected to maintain a range - bound operation. The long - term support for silver is significant [4][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Precious Metal Market Overview - On the day, precious metals oscillated weakly, failing to continue the previous day's upward trend. Silver's decline was significantly greater than gold's. The US February CPI and core CPI data were in line with expectations, having limited impact on precious metals. The Middle - East conflict entered its 12th day without obvious signs of easing, increasing concerns about rising oil prices and complicating the Fed's policy path. The IEA announced that its 32 member countries agreed to release 4 billion barrels of strategic oil reserves [2]. Gold Analysis - Logic: Gold prices oscillated weakly on the day. COMEX gold fell nearly 1% and broke below $5200 per ounce, SHFE gold fell nearly 0.4%. It was pressured by rising energy prices, a short - term strengthening US dollar, and some investors taking profits. The latest February CPI and core CPI data were in line with market expectations. The Middle - East geopolitical conflict continued, and the market weighed the threat to oil tanker navigation and the IEA's oil reserve release [3]. - Outlook: Gold may show a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the progress of the IEA's oil release, the US PCE data on March 13, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting resolution on March 17 - 18. In the long term, the outlook for gold is optimistic as the weakening of the US dollar credit remains the main line [3]. Silver Analysis - Logic: The decline of domestic and overseas silver prices exceeded 3% on the day, and COMEX silver once fell below $86 per ounce. The driving factors were basically the same as those of gold. On one hand, the short - term macro - driving factors were the same as gold, facing the suppression of "rising energy prices - increasing inflation concerns - postponed interest - rate cut expectations". On the other hand, the spot - driving factors of silver weakened, with the continuous decline of the COMEX silver 2603 contract position and low delivery declaration volume in March, and the risk of a short squeeze was further alleviated [4][7]. - Outlook: Silver is expected to maintain a range - bound operation in the short term, and the long - term support is significant [7]. Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: Not detailed in the given content. - Special Index: The commodity index was 2565.65, down 0.28%; the commodity 20 index was 2921.03, down 0.32%; the industrial products index was 2484.54, down 1.01% [46]. - Plate Index: The precious metal index on March 11, 2026 was 4496.99, with a daily increase of 1.27%, a 5 - day increase of 1.89%, a 1 - month increase of 8.03%, and a year - to - date increase of 17.59% [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - With more refineries in China reducing their operating rates, more petrochemical companies declaring force majeure, and more Middle - East refineries shutting down due to drone attacks, the supply reduction of the chemical industry is a fact. Even if the geopolitical situation eases, damaged refineries won't start immediately, and shut - down facilities need time to restart. The chemical industry may outperform crude oil futures prices later [2]. - Crude oil will lead the chemical industry to maintain a strong and volatile pattern [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: The release of strategic petroleum reserves cannot change the tight supply expectation, and oil prices will remain strong. - **Main Logic**: The IEA's release of strategic petroleum reserves may not change the tight supply pattern caused by the blocked passage of the Strait of Hormuz. If the situation eases, oil prices may fall but won't return to pre - conflict levels in the short term. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish before the situation becomes clearer [7]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt - fuel oil price spread will widen. - **Main Logic**: The high - level shock of crude oil, the expected decline in asphalt refinery operating rates due to the deterioration of refining profits, the high - growth in Hainan's asphalt production, the accumulation of asphalt inventory, and the relatively undervalued asphalt futures compared to fuel oil all contribute to the expected widening of the spread. - **Outlook**: Volatile, with the absolute price of asphalt overvalued and the medium - to - long - term valuation expected to decline [8]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The price of high - sulfur fuel oil has fallen from its high level. - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical situation in Iran affects fuel oil exports and natural gas supply. In the long term, the substitution of fuel oil for power generation by natural gas and photovoltaics is a negative factor [9]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. - **Main Logic**: It follows the decline of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. However, its export tax - rebate advantage and the transfer of the "reduce oil and increase chemicals" pressure may support it [10]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: Cost increase has escalated into a real - supply shock, and many refineries in the Asia - Pacific region are under force majeure. - **Main Logic**: Due to the tense geopolitical situation, raw - material costs remain high. PX supply is expected to shrink significantly in the second - quarter maintenance period, and the unplanned losses exacerbate the supply tightness [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the PX price will be volatile and bullish under cost support and real - supply shock. In the medium term, the logic of buying on dips remains. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: The volatility of upstream costs has increased, and the PTA basis has remained relatively stable. - **Main Logic**: The sharp rise in upstream raw materials has pushed up the cost of PTA, and the spot price has risen significantly due to the supply - cut sentiment. In the short term, PTA is expected to be bullish driven by cost and market sentiment [13]. - **Outlook**: Expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: Driven by crude oil and commodity sentiment, pure benzene fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: There is an expectation of geopolitical easing, and international oil prices have fallen. On the fundamental side, some supply enterprises may reduce production, while the downstream industry's profits have improved, and the operating rate has increased [14][16]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Affected by device maintenance and crude - oil fluctuations, styrene fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: There is an expectation of geopolitical easing, and international oil prices have fallen. Supply may be reduced due to device maintenance and production cuts, while exports have increased. The market is supported by replenishment after the price decline [17]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. 3.1.9 MEG - **View**: The reduction in oil - based device operating rates is gradually emerging, and supply is expected to shrink significantly. - **Main Logic**: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has affected the supply of raw materials, leading to a decline in the operating rate of domestic ethylene - cracking MEG enterprises. The reduction in overseas imports and domestic oil - based device production cannot be fully compensated by the delay in coal - chemical device maintenance [19]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish in the short term. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: Upstream raw materials are facing a real - supply shock. - **Main Logic**: The cost of upstream polyester raw materials has increased significantly. Downstream customers have stocked up during the previous price increase and are now waiting for the industrial chain to recover [20]. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber price will follow the upstream trend and remain volatile and bullish in the short term. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chip - **View**: The supply contraction of upstream raw materials has triggered market enthusiasm. - **Main Logic**: The sharp rise in upstream futures has strongly driven up the price of polyester bottle chips, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. The current supply - demand situation is tight, and the overall fundamentals are good [22]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price will follow the raw - material trend, and the support for processing fees will increase. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: Due to the continuous geopolitical conflict, methanol fluctuates within a range. - **Main Logic**: The methanol futures price is volatile and bullish. The inventory of production enterprises and ports has decreased, but the downstream demand has not improved significantly. The geopolitical situation still affects the import side [25][26]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: Enterprises have significantly reduced their inventory, and urea fluctuates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: The daily production of the urea industry is stable at a high level. Agricultural demand still exists in some regions, and industrial demand is gradually recovering. The inventory pressure of enterprises has weakened, which provides support for the market [27]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. 3.1.14 PE - **View**: There is an expectation of a decline in refinery operating rates, and PE fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The oil price is volatile. If the Strait of Hormuz is continuously affected, PE imports may decrease. The sentiment in the energy - chemical market is still volatile, and the expected decline in refinery operating rates supports the near - term contracts [30]. - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short term. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: The number of maintenance operations has increased, and PP fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The oil price is volatile. The direct impact on PP imports from the Persian Gulf is limited. The profits of oil - based and PDH refineries are under pressure, and the overall operating rate is low [31]. - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short term. 3.1.16 PL - **View**: There is an expectation of a decline in oil - based refinery operating rates, and PL fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The oil price fluctuates widely. The spot market has become more rational, and the downstream is waiting and observing [32]. - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short term. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: Upstream production cuts are increasing, and PVC is cautiously bullish. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts have increased the cost support and supply - disruption expectations in the energy - chemical industry. Upstream production cuts have expanded, exports have improved, and inventory is expected to decrease [34]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: Supply continues to decrease, and caustic soda is cautiously bullish. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts have increased the cost support and supply - reduction expectations. The production - cut scale at home and abroad has expanded, exports have improved, and inventory is expected to decrease [35]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., are provided, including the latest values and changes [37]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis, changes in the basis, and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., are provided [38]. - **Inter - Variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of various combinations such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc., are provided [39]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summary content is provided in the text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index show different degrees of decline [276]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index shows a decline of 8.58% on March 11, 2026, an increase of 1.11% in the past 5 days, an increase of 41.21% in the past month, and an increase of 45.03% since the beginning of the year [278].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term rating of the previously recommended overweight stocks, including stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, is downgraded to neutral. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Most domestic commodity futures markets closed higher, with non - metallic building materials rising across the board. Shipping futures led the gains, while energy products led the losses [1]. - For the expectation of US dollar monetary policy, it is important to determine the current stage of geopolitical conflicts, which affects the market's judgment on inflation and the economy. It is recommended to use the neutral scenario as the benchmark for asset allocation. In the short term, it is advisable to appropriately manage the positions of risk assets such as equities and commodities [1]. - After the release of the "Report", the market's policy expectation of the government's active policy support in the first half of the year will gradually converge, and the market will shift to the verification stage of actual data [1]. - Stock indices may enter a period of shock adjustment, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by the expectation of tightened monetary conditions. Investors are advised to pay attention to geopolitical events and domestic economic data before re - evaluating asset cost - effectiveness and portfolio construction strategies [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Domestic Commodity Futures**: Most domestic commodity futures closed higher. Shipping futures led the gains, with the container shipping index (European line) rising 7.15%. Non - metallic building materials all rose, with PVC up 5.63%. Chemical products mostly rose, with butadiene rubber up 5.51%. Oils and fats and oilseeds mostly rose, with soybean meal up 3.58%. Agricultural and sideline products mostly rose, with red dates up 2.12%. Black commodities mostly rose, with iron ore up 0.90%. Precious metals showed mixed performance, with Shanghai gold up 0.73%. Energy products led the losses, with crude oil down 9.61%. New energy materials mostly fell, with lithium carbonate down 5.14%. Base metals mostly fell, with Shanghai tin down 0.71% [1]. - **Financial Market**: The performance of financial market products such as stock index futures, treasury bond futures, foreign exchange, and interest rates showed different trends. For example, the CSI 300 futures rose 0.43% on the day, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.01% [7]. - **Industry Index**: Different industries in the China Securities Industry Index showed different trends. For example, the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry rose 0.73% on the day, while the national defense and military industry fell 1.51% [8][9]. - **Overseas Commodities**: Overseas commodities such as energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products also had different price changes. For example, NYMEX WTI crude oil fell 8.84% on the day, and COMEX gold rose 1.86% [10][11]. - **Domestic Main Commodities**: Domestic main commodities including shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products showed various price movements. For example, the container shipping European line rose 7.51% on the day, and gold rose 0.2% [12][13][14]. 3.2 Asset Views - **Stock Indices**: Affected by the convergence of policy boost expectations and overseas events, stock indices may enter a shock adjustment period, and it is necessary to observe the actual situation of domestic economic data to form the next trend [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and Precious Metals**: Constrained by the unfalsifiable expectation of tightened monetary conditions, the performance of non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected from the perspective of financial attributes [1]. - **TS and TF**: Relatively recommended for allocation [1]. 3.3 Short - term Judgment of Each Variety - **Financial**: Stock index futures, stock index options, treasury bond futures, and precious metals are all expected to be in a shock state. The short - term judgment of gold and silver is affected by factors such as inflation expectations, US fundamental data, and Fed monetary policy [4]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping European line is expected to be in a shock - weak state, affected by geopolitical events, the passage volume of ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and the situation in the Middle East [4]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are expected to be in a shock state, affected by factors such as policy issuance, production and shipment, and cost [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metals and new materials are expected to be in a shock state, affected by factors such as supply disturbances, policy changes, and demand expectations [4]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Most energy chemical products are expected to be in a shock state, affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, oil price fluctuations, and macro - level changes [4][5]. - **Agriculture**: Most agricultural products are expected to be in a shock state, affected by factors such as the situation in the Middle East, oil price fluctuations, and supply and demand [4][5].