Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual varieties, the mid - term outlooks for industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate are all "oscillating" [5]. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of new energy metals is that supply and demand are weak, and prices will maintain a weak trend. In the short - to - medium term, prices are weak, and cautious participation is advisable. For long - term, low prices may accelerate the capacity clearance of domestically self - priced varieties [1]. - Industrial silicon: During the wet season, supply increases while demand is weak, and silicon prices are under downward pressure [2][5]. - Polycrystalline silicon: The game between bulls and bears intensifies, and polycrystalline silicon prices fluctuate widely [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate: The support of ore prices continues to decline, and lithium prices are under pressure [2][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - **Current prices**: As of June 3, according to SMM data, the price of oxygen - passing 553 in East China is 8,200 yuan/ton, and 421 in East China is 8,850 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inventory situation**: According to Baichuan data, the domestic inventory is 420,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%; market inventory is 169,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%; factory inventory is 251,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% [5]. - **Production and export**: In May 2025, the domestic monthly production of industrial silicon was 308,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%; from January to May, the cumulative production was 1.544 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. In April, the export volume of industrial silicon was 60,509 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative export volume was 216,730 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5% [5]. - **Photovoltaic installation**: In April, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 45.2GW, a month - on - month increase of 123.4% and a year - on - year increase of 214.7%; from January to April, the cumulative newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 104.9GW, a year - on - year increase of 74.6% [5]. - **Main logic**: On the supply side, large northern factories are gradually resuming production, and supply in the northwest is rising. In June, the southwest enters the wet season, and the operating rate in Sichuan has risen first, followed by Yunnan. On the demand side, downstream demand remains weak. Polysilicon factories continue to cut production, and demand for industrial silicon is still weak. The organic silicon industry has a slight recovery, and subsequent demand is expected to remain stable. The demand for industrial silicon from the aluminum alloy industry has limited impact. Inventory continues to accumulate, but futures prices have fallen rapidly, and warehouse receipt inventory has decreased [5]. - **Outlook**: The resumption of production in northwest silicon factories has slowed down, but there is still a possibility of further resumption. In June, production in Sichuan and Yunnan will increase. Under high supply pressure, inventory will continue to accumulate. Silicon prices are expected to oscillate [5]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Price and trade data**: According to the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of N - type re - feedstock is 36,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 37,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.85%. In April, China's polycrystalline silicon export volume was about 1,262.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37% and a year - on - year decrease of 36.2%. The import volume was about 954.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,951.7 tons (a decrease of 67.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 2,713.9 tons (a decrease of 73.98%) [5]. - **Photovoltaic installation**: From January to April 2025, the newly - added domestic photovoltaic installed capacity was 104.93GW, a year - on - year increase of 74.56%. In 2024, the cumulative newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity from January to December was 278GW, a year - on - year increase of 28% [5]. - **Industry news**: The photovoltaic silicon material sector holds a "meeting" monthly to discuss production cuts. Leading silicon material enterprises intend to jointly promote capacity integration but still need to discuss implementation [5]. - **Warehouse receipt situation**: The latest number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 1,570 lots, an increase of 1,100 lots compared to the previous value [5]. - **Main logic**: The registration speed of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts has accelerated recently, and there is great uncertainty about the resumption of production during the wet season. It is expected that large - scale production capacity will be replaced, and supply pressure will be greatly alleviated. Under the influence of both positive and negative news, price fluctuations have increased. On the supply side, most silicon material factories are still in a loss state, and production is currently at a low level. In April, production was below 100,000 tons, a significant decline compared to the beginning of 2024. It is expected that low production will continue in May 2025. On the demand side, after the end of the photovoltaic rush - to - install period, the prices of downstream photovoltaic products such as components have begun to decline, and there is a risk of weakening demand for polycrystalline silicon in the second half of the year [5][6]. - **Outlook**: The short - term low production of polycrystalline silicon has improved supply and demand, but there is a risk of weakening demand in the second half of the year. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [5][7]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and trading data**: On June 3, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 0.23% to 59,940 yuan; the total open interest of lithium carbonate contracts increased by 12,174 lots to 585,875 lots. The spot price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 400 yuan to 60,300 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 400 yuan to 58,700 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) on Flush decreased by 12 US dollars to 608 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 58,500 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. On that day, the warehouse receipts decreased by 60 tons to 33,397 tons [7]. - **Industry news**: Bolivia's lithium mining development plan for the Uyuni Salt Flats has suffered a major setback. The local court has suspended two large - scale lithium mining agreements with China and Russia, with a total value of over 2 billion US dollars and a planned annual production capacity of 35,000 tons of lithium carbonate [7]. - **Main logic**: The fundamentals are still relatively loose, but inventory has marginally improved, and the price difference structure has strengthened. On the supply side, weekly production increased by 487 tons to 16,600 tons. On the demand side, domestic cathode materials maintained growth from January to May but at a slower pace. June is a demand off - season, and demand is expected to be flat compared to the previous month, better than the same period last year. Social inventory decreased slightly by 208 tons in a single week, and warehouse receipt inventory has also decreased recently. Ore prices are still falling, but they have not reached the marginal cost of Australian mines, and no mine production cuts have been seen. In the future, cost support will continue to be tested, and lithium carbonate prices will be further pushed down. With the expectation of weakening demand and increasing supply, social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and prices will be under pressure. In the short term, the monthly spread has strengthened, and warehouse receipts have continuously decreased. Attention should be paid to mine production cut news, and opportunities for short - selling on rebounds or reverse spreads should be monitored [7]. - **Outlook**: Demand is weak, and supply is at a high level. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Oscillating [6] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [6] - Scrap Steel: Oscillating [7] - Coke: Oscillating Weakly [7] - Coking Coal: Oscillating Weakly [10] - Glass: Oscillating Weakly [11] - Soda Ash: Oscillating Weakly [11] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [13] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [14] Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the Dragon Boat Festival, the macro - sentiment was weak, and the US further imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, causing the prices of black building materials to decline. However, the actual impact of tariffs was limited, and there were rumors of Mongolia increasing resource taxes, leading to a price rebound at night. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the manufacturing's rush for exports is less than expected. Although some electric furnaces and blast furnaces are in the red, the overall profitability provides cost support. Low valuations drive price rebounds, but the upside is limited [1][2]. - In terms of iron elements, the overseas supply increase is lower than expected, and the annual cumulative shipment is down year - on - year. The new projects' progress is slow, and the annual increase is revised down. Steel enterprises' profitability and orders are good, and the molten iron output is expected to remain high. Before September, the inventory accumulation pressure is small, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [2]. - For carbon elements, the coking coal production remains high, and the Mongolian coal port clearance is also at a high level, resulting in a loose supply. The coke production is at a high level, but coke enterprises face inventory reduction pressure, and the coking profit is shrinking. The coking coal inventory pressure upstream is increasing, and it's difficult to find price support [2]. - Regarding alloys, the arrival of South32 Australian ore at the port increases the pressure on oxidized ore spot. The ban on manganese ore exports by Gabon has no obvious impact on the domestic market. With the recovery of manganese ore shipments, the port inventory is rising, and the cost drag persists. The ferrosilicon supply increases slightly, and the downstream is eager to reduce inventory. The glass demand decline in the off - season is not obvious, and the supply - side news can cause market fluctuations. The soda ash supply surplus pattern remains unchanged [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Core Logic: The overseas supply increase is lower than expected, and the annual cumulative shipment is down year - on - year. New projects' progress is slow, and the annual increase is revised down. Steel enterprises' profitability and orders are good, and the molten iron output is expected to remain high, so the annual molten iron output is expected to be higher than last year. Before September, the inventory accumulation pressure is small, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The black sector rebounded last night, and iron ore also rose slightly [2][6]. - Outlook: The US tariff policy has limited actual negative impact on iron ore, but may cause pessimistic sentiment. Considering the uncertain policies, the tight supply - demand balance, and the fact that the price has factored in many negative factors, the room for further significant decline is limited [6]. Steel - Core Logic: The domestic policy is in a vacuum, and there are still tariff risks. The demand for the five major steel products rebounded this week, but the domestic demand outlook is weak. The molten iron output is high, and the steel production has increased. Although the supply - demand fundamentals improved this week and the inventory decreased, the falling raw material prices and pessimistic demand expectations suppress the price [6]. - Outlook: The fundamentals improved this week, but the outlook is still pessimistic, and the raw material prices are weakening. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The post - holiday scrap steel arrival was low, and the loss during off - peak electricity hours increased. The apparent demand for rebar rebounded slightly, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The supply was tight after the holiday, and the demand from electric furnaces and blast furnaces was affected. The inventory increased slightly [7]. - Outlook: The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, the finished product price is under pressure, and the electric furnace loss is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [7]. Coke - Core Logic: The second round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the market is pessimistic. The supply is stable, but the demand is weakening as the molten iron output declines and the off - season approaches [7][9]. - Outlook: The falling coking coal price weakens the cost support, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [9]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: The market trading atmosphere is weak, and coal mines face shipment pressure. The supply is still loose as the production remains high and the Mongolian coal port clearance is high. The coke production is high, but coke enterprises face inventory reduction pressure, and the coking profit is shrinking. The upstream inventory pressure is increasing [10]. - Outlook: The market is pessimistic, the supply - demand is loose, and the high inventory suppresses the price. The price is expected to remain weak [10]. Glass - Core Logic: The off - season demand decline is not obvious, and the deep - processing demand improved month - on - month but is still weak year - on - year. There was cold - repair and复产, and the supply pressure remains. The inventory decreased slightly, and the market is sensitive to supply - side news [3][11]. - Outlook: The real - world demand faces pressure in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price cuts in Hubei [11]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. The supply pressure persists as some enterprises' production has recovered. The demand for heavy alkali is for rigid needs, and the increase in float glass daily melting is uncertain. The short - term inventory decreased due to maintenance, but the long - term surplus remains [11]. - Outlook: The supply surplus remains, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and decline in the long term [11]. Ferrosilicon Manganese - Core Logic: The ferrosilicon manganese price was weak. The cost pressure is high as the market is bearish on raw materials, and the South32 Australian ore is arriving at the port. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak as the black market enters the off - season [13]. - Outlook: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to continue to decline as the manganese ore inventory rises and the coke price is falling [13]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The ferrosilicon price was weak. The supply increased slightly as some furnaces were restarted. The demand is weak as the steel market enters the off - season and the metal magnesium market is sluggish [14]. - Outlook: The supply and demand are both weak, and the demand may weaken further. The price is expected to oscillate under pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel procurement and production [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: After China and the US reached a tariff delay agreement, US consumer confidence was significantly boosted, but the improvement in the labor market was limited, and the long - term economic resilience needs further observation. Domestic macro: Manufacturing enterprises' profits and PMI maintained strong resilience. The report maintains the view of more hedging and more volatility overseas and a structural market in China, and suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. For domestic assets, the export resilience and the window period of tariff relaxation support the economic growth rate in the second quarter. The bond market still has value for dip - buying after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities return to the fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound oscillations [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Essentials - **Overseas**: The consumer confidence index jumped from 85.7 to 98.0 in May. Consumers were more optimistic about the economic outlook, but the labor market improvement was limited, and the long - term economic resilience was uncertain. - **Domestic**: From January to April, the total profits of large - scale industrial enterprises reached 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5 percentage points. The export resilience and tariff relaxation window period support the economic growth rate in the second quarter. - **Asset Views**: Maintain the view of more hedging and more volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. The bond market has dip - buying value after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities show short - term range - bound oscillations [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - **Domestic**: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the short - term fiscal end implements established policies. - **Overseas**: The inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: There are external positives, and changes should be dealt with cautiously. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - **Stock Index Options**: Volatility is further suppressed. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Risk appetite rises, and the bullish sentiment in the bond market is suppressed. The short - term judgment is range - bound [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. The short - term judgment is range - bound [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Pay attention to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term judgment is range - bound [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The demand expectation is pessimistic, and spot transactions are weak. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron output decreased slightly, and the price oscillated. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - **Coke**: The off - season deepened, and the second round of price cuts was implemented. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - **Coking Coal**: The supply pressure remained high, and there was little support below. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - Other varieties such as silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash also have corresponding market logics, and most of the short - term judgments are range - bound [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The inventory continued to accumulate, and the copper price oscillated at a high level. The short - term judgment is range - bound increase. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking the mining license was not finalized, and the alumina futures oscillated at a high level. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - Other non - ferrous metal varieties such as aluminum, zinc, and lead also have corresponding market logics, and most of the short - term judgments are range - bound [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: There were more macro disturbances, and the supply pressure remained. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - **LPG**: The demand continued to weaken, and LPG maintained a weak range - bound oscillation. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - Other energy and chemical varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil also have corresponding market logics, and the short - term judgments vary from range - bound decline to range - bound increase [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - **Pork**: The expectation of inventory reduction drove the futures price of pork to rebound. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - **Rubber**: The warehouse receipts continued to be cancelled, and NR rebounded strongly. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - Other agricultural products such as cotton, sugar, and logs also have corresponding market logics, and most of the short - term judgments are range - bound [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each financial derivative product, the following outlooks are given: - **Stock Index Futures**: Neutral (suggests a wait - and - see approach) [6] - **Stock Index Options**: Neutral (suggests a wait - and - see approach for direction strategies) [6] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Neutral (suggests a trend of oscillation) [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index Futures**: External factors bring short - term positive news, but due to uncertainties in tariff policies and lack of fundamental support, investors are advised to wait and see instead of actively increasing positions [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: The volatility is further suppressed, and the market has weak expectations for fluctuations. Direction strategies suggest waiting and seeing, with a focus on covered call strategies and light - position long - volatility strategies [2][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Market risk appetite has increased, suppressing the bullish sentiment in the bond market. Attention should be paid to upcoming economic data and central bank operations, and different strategies are proposed for different trading purposes [6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The market volume increased and prices rose, with the All - A Index up 1.17%. The catalyst was the US court's prevention of Trump's tariff policy, leading to a general rise in the Asia - Pacific market [6]. - **Futures Market Signals**: The total position of IM increased by nearly 30,000 contracts, and the discount of the current - quarter contract of IM narrowed, indicating active long - position capital layout [6]. - **Investment Advice**: Wait and see due to uncertainties in tariff policies and the low cost - performance of small - cap stocks [6]. Stock Index Options - **Market Liquidity**: Driven by the strong performance of the underlying assets, the trading volume increased by nearly 50%, mainly concentrated in the morning session [2][6]. - **Volatility**: Volatility declined rapidly after the mid - day session, with both call and put volatilities decreasing, indicating weak market expectations for fluctuations [2][6]. - **Investment Advice**: Wait and see for direction strategies, focus on covered call strategies, and lightly position in long - volatility strategies at low levels [2][6]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures continued to be weak, with the T main contract opening lower and trading at a low level throughout the day [3][6][7]. - **Influencing Factors**: Uncertainties in Trump's tariff policy, strong stock market performance, and upcoming 5 - month PMI data affected market sentiment [3][6][8]. - **Investment Advice**: Trend strategy: oscillation; Hedging strategy: pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels; Basis strategy: appropriately pay attention to basis widening; Curve strategy: steeper curve has higher odds in the medium term [8]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - **US Economic Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending May 24, 2025, was 240,000, higher than the previous value of 227,000 and the forecast of 230,000. The annual rate of the US core PCE price index in April 2025 is expected to be 2.6%, and the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in May 2025 is expected to be 51 [9]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Airlines**: Starting from June 5, 2025, airlines will adjust the fuel surcharge for domestic flights. Flights of 800 kilometers or less will be exempt from the surcharge, while flights over 800 kilometers will charge 10 yuan per passenger per segment [9]. - **Cultural Exports**: Four departments jointly released the list of key cultural export enterprises and projects for 2025 - 2026, identifying 404 enterprises and 121 projects [10]. - **Tariffs**: The Chinese side urges the US to completely cancel unilateral tariff - imposing measures, and the US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff policies were illegal [10]. - **Credit Bonds**: Multiple credit bond ETFs have received approval from the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation to be included in the repurchase collateral pool [10].

Group 1: Core View - The EIA weekly data shows that oil product inventories decreased and apparent demand rebounded. The decline in US commercial crude oil inventory in the week of May 23 was mainly due to the increase in net crude oil exports. Gasoline and diesel inventories both decreased, with diesel inventory reaching an absolute low. The apparent demand for refined oil products rebounded in a single week. Currently, US production is relatively stable, and the demand side shows a seasonal recovery but with limited highlights. The single - week data on the inventory side is relatively positive [4]. Group 2: Data Summary Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory change: decreased by 2.795 million barrels (previous value: increased by 1.328 million barrels) [4][6] - US Cushing crude oil inventory change: increased by 75,000 barrels (previous value: decreased by 457,000 barrels) [6] - US strategic petroleum inventory change: increased by 820,000 barrels (previous value: increased by 843,000 barrels) [6] - US gasoline inventory change: decreased by 2.441 million barrels (previous value: increased by 816,000 barrels) [6] - US diesel inventory change: decreased by 724,000 barrels (previous value: increased by 579,000 barrels) [6] - US jet fuel inventory change: increased by 607,000 barrels (previous value: increased by 462,000 barrels) [6] - US fuel oil inventory change: increased by 270,000 barrels (previous value: decreased by 760,000 barrels) [6] - US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR): decreased by 665,000 barrels (previous value: increased by 4.931 million barrels) [6] Production and Consumption Data - US crude oil production: 13.401 million barrels per day (previous value: 13.392 million barrels per day) [6] - US refined oil apparent demand: 20.242 million barrels per day (previous value: 20.031 million barrels per day) [6] - US gasoline apparent demand: 9.452 million barrels per day (previous value: 8.644 million barrels per day) [6] - US diesel apparent demand: 3.893 million barrels per day (previous value: 3.412 million barrels per day) [6] - US crude oil imports: 6.351 million barrels per day (previous value: 6.089 million barrels per day) [6] - US crude oil exports: 4.301 million barrels per day (previous value: 3.507 million barrels per day) [6] - US refinery crude oil processing volume: 16.328 million barrels per day (previous value: 16.49 million barrels per day) [6] - US refinery utilization rate: 90.2% (previous value: 90.7%) [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the energy and chemical market, highlighting that the US restocking falls short of expectations, leading to a weakening of the chemical industry landscape. Multiple factors, including geopolitical events, policy uncertainties, and supply - demand dynamics, impact different energy and chemical products, resulting in various price trends and market outlooks for each product [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: On May 29, SC2507 closed at 467.1 yuan/barrel (+3.11%), and Brent2508 at 63.36 dollars/barrel (-1.51%). Kazakhstan's inability to cut production strengthens the expectation of OPEC+ quota increase in July, suppressing oil prices. However, short - term macro and geopolitical factors are positive. It is expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Asphalt**: The main futures closed at 3526 yuan/ton. With various negative factors such as high - yield US debt crisis, OPEC+ over - production, and sufficient domestic raw material supply, the asphalt price is over - valued and expected to decline. Although demand expectations are improving, the upside space is limited [6][7]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The main contract closed at 3037 yuan/ton. Affected by factors like OPEC+ over - production, increased import tariffs in China, and reduced demand in Egypt, it is over - valued and expected to decline with a weakening trend [7]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The main contract closed at 3530 yuan/ton. It follows the crude oil price fluctuations. Currently, it has low valuation and is affected by factors such as green fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution [10]. - **LPG**: On May 29, PG2507 closed at 4120 yuan/ton (+0.56%). With the weakening of crude oil and the reduction of Saudi CP contract prices, the cost support weakens. It is expected to bottom - out and fluctuate [8][10]. - **PX**: On May 29, PX CFR China Taiwan was 852(16) dollars/ton. Short - term crude oil weakness squeezes PX cost. Considering supply and demand, it is expected to continue to consolidate [12]. - **PTA**: On May 29, the spot price was 4960(93) yuan/ton. With continuous inventory reduction and the support of major suppliers, it is expected to be relatively strong and fluctuate [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: On May 29, the price was in a low - level upward trend. The overall supply increases while demand decreases, and it is expected to fluctuate during the maintenance and inventory - reduction period [14][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: On May 29, it rose following the suspension of US tariffs. With the decline of printing, dyeing, and weaving operations and the shortfall of US restocking, it is expected to fluctuate [15][16]. - **Bottle Chips**: On May 29, the price of polyester raw material futures rebounded. With the decline of downstream operations and the shortfall of US restocking, the processing fee expansion is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [16][18]. - **Methanol**: On May 29, the futures price fluctuated. With the increase of port inventory and supply pressure, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [21]. - **Urea**: On May 29, the factory - warehouse and market low - end prices were 1810(+0) and 1860(+0) respectively. With the increase of supply and weak domestic demand, the spot price may be under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [21]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: On May 29, the main contract fluctuated. Affected by factors such as the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy, oil price increase concerns, and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [24]. - **PP**: On May 29, the main contract fluctuated. With limited macro - level boosting, oil price increase concerns, and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [25][26]. - **PVC**: The benchmark price of East - China calcium - carbide PVC was 4730(+0) yuan/ton. With short - term inventory reduction due to maintenance and long - term pressure from new capacity, weak domestic demand, and potential export decline, it is expected to be under pressure [27]. - **Caustic Soda**: On May 29, the price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2750(+0) yuan/ton. With supply and demand increasing in late May and potentially weakening in June, the spot price may peak, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [27]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as SC (M1 - M2) at - 7 with a change of - 12, and WTI (M1 - M2) at 0.69 with a change of 0.05 [29]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, the basis of asphalt is 126 with a change of - 33, and the warehouse receipt is 91510 [30]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are various inter - variety spread values and changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA at - 3 with a change of - 4 [31]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report mentions the monitoring of methanol, urea, styrene, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle chips, asphalt, crude oil, LPG, fuel oil, LLDPE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda, but specific data details are not fully presented [32][44][56]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-5-30 关税环境再⽣变数，关注棉花需求变化 油脂 ：震荡分化，棕油偏强 蛋⽩粕：油厂开机率持续走高，双粕上行空间预计受限 ⽟⽶/淀粉：空头减仓，盘面上行 ⽣猪：去库预期带动，生猪盘面反弹 橡㬵：仓单继续注销，NR强势反弹 合成橡㬵：超跌反弹，盘面等待新的驱动 纸浆：俄针修正价差，纸浆期货借势大涨 棉花：关税环境再生变数，关注需求变化 ⽩糖：糖价震荡收跌 原⽊：基本面未改善，反弹空间或有限 ⻛险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 棉花：关税环境再⽣变数，关注需求变化 逻辑：需求端，5月份纺纱厂开机率维稳，纱厂成品库存不高，但6月一 般为消费淡季，后续或存在成品累库和降开机的可能，关注需求边际变 化。库存端，当前棉花商业库存低于近五年同期均值水平，5月上半月棉 花商业库存去化速度依旧较快，后续库存存在偏紧预期。新棉种植方 面，今年新疆棉花种植面积预计同比增加，因比价收益优势，其它农作 物改种棉花现象增多，当前产区天气整体尚可，棉花出苗情况较好， 后续若无极端天气，25/26年度新疆棉花产量或居高难下甚至 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 商品走势分化，化工板块集体拉升 ——中信期货晨报20250530 中信期货研究所 刘道钰 从业资格号F3061482 投资咨询号Z0016422 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 殷指 | 沪深300期货 | 3832 8 | 0.73% | -0.35W | 3.14% | -0.67% | -2.25% | | | 上证50期货 | 2673.6 | 0.314 | -0.724 | 2.47% | 0.29% | -0.16% | | | 中证500期货 | 5668.6 | 1 814 | 1924 | 3 2% | -2 59% | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-05-30 价格有企稳迹象，基本⾯变化有限 经过连续多⽇下跌后，昨⽇盘⾯有企稳迹象，其中铁矿探涨意愿较 强，双焦则延续跌势。产业供需层⾯没有变化，国内需求季节性⾛ 弱，⼯地需求受到⾬⽔天⽓影响施⼯进度放缓，出⼝悲观情绪加剧。 ⽬前电炉和部分⾼炉已开始亏损，铁⽔预期内回落，整体盈利率尚 可。对⽐去年情况来看，今年钢材库存压⼒不⼤且五⼤材维持去库， 海外矿⼭增量不明显，铁矿港⼝库存持续去化。综合来看，估值低位 带来反弹驱动，但⼒度偏弱。 ⿊⾊：价格有企稳迹象，基本⾯变化有限 经过连续多日下跌后，昨日盘面有企稳迹象，其中铁矿探涨意愿较 强，双焦则延续跌势。产业供需层面没有变化，国内需求季节性走 弱，工地需求受到雨水天气影响施工进度放缓，出口悲观情绪加剧。 目前电炉和部分高炉已开始亏损，铁水预期内回落，整体盈利率尚 可。对比去年情况来看，今年钢材库存压力不大且五大材维持去库， 海外矿山增量不明显，铁矿港口库存持续去化。综合来看，估值低位 带来反弹驱动，但力度偏弱。 1、铁元素方面，铁矿短期供给增量不明显，因海外新项目爬坡进度 不 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-5-29 美联储态度审慎，⾦价承压 价格逻辑： 黄金价格周三北美时段延续跌势，跌破3,300美元关键心理位，主因 美联储会议纪要释放滞胀风险信号，推动美债收益率反弹并提振美 元。尽管美联储维持利率不变，但政策制定者对关税推升通胀及就业 增长放缓的担忧加剧，暗示货币政策将保持谨慎。同时，地缘政治冲 突（俄乌、中东局势）虽支撑避险需求，但美国消费者信心数据超预 期改善，叠加美债收益率回升至4.493%，削弱了黄金吸引力。 美联储5月会议纪要显示，官员因关税对经济的不确定性及潜在" 滞胀"压力（高通胀与弱增长并存）而选择观望，强调需等待政府政 策调整效果明朗。值得注意的是，此次会议早于特朗普政府将对华关 税从145%降至30%的决定。经济数据方面，美国10年期实际收益率升 至2.171%，美元指数上涨0.33%至99.89，进一步施压金价。此外， 瑞士4月自美黄金进口创2012年以来新高，中国香港4月黄金净进口同 比翻倍。市场预计美联储年内或降息45个基点，但当前强劲数据与政 策谨慎基调令短期金价承压。 展望：周度COMEX黄金 ...