1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The European futures market presents a pattern of "system - led, complementary functions, and regional division of labor". With Western Europe and the UK as dual cores and Northern Europe as a characteristic sector, mainstream financial futures contracts like EURO - Bund futures and STOXX index futures have positions in the hundreds of billions, and commodity futures contracts such as Brent crude oil and LME copper also have positions exceeding tens of billions [1][2]. - In 2024, the European futures market showed significant differentiation in activity. The UK market had strong growth, Western Europe was the largest trading volume area, and Northern Europe had a small - scale but specialized market [36]. - The European futures market has a multi - core and multi - level capital distribution, with leading varieties dominating and many characteristic contracts meeting various segmented needs [47]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 European Futures Market Development History - **Origin**: It originated in the late Middle Ages, and the Netherlands created the first large - scale derivatives market in history through tulip bulb futures trading in the 17th century [8]. - **UK**: In 1877, the London Metal Exchange Company was established, marking the birth of modern metal futures trading. Financial futures emerged in 1982 with the establishment of LIFFE. After multiple mergers and acquisitions, LIFFE is now under ICE Futures Europe. Regulatory framework changes, such as the "Big Bang" in 1986 and the implementation of the Financial Services and Markets Act in 2000, have also influenced the market. Brexit in 2018 led to regulatory adjustments [9][10]. - **Western Europe**: The modern futures market emerged after World War II. Eurex, Euronext, and EEX have played important roles. Eurex became the European interest - rate derivatives pricing center, Euronext integrated European financial derivatives business, and EEX became a leading platform for energy and environmental products [12][13]. - **Northern Europe**: Its trading tradition dates back to the Hanseatic League in the Middle Ages. After World War II, through economic cooperation, the derivatives market developed. In 1996, the Nordic Power Exchange was established, launching the world's first day - ahead power futures contract [14][16]. 3.2 European Futures Products - **UK**: ICE Futures Europe and LME are the cores, covering financial derivatives and commodities. Products include FTSE 100 index futures, gilt futures, Brent crude oil futures, and LME copper and aluminum futures [20][21]. - **Western Europe**: Eurex, Euronext, and EEX provide a wide range of products. There are STOXX 600 and DAX index futures, EURO - Bund and other interest - rate futures, wheat and power futures, and euro foreign - exchange futures [20][27]. - **Northern Europe**: OMX provides derivatives mainly for local and international investors. Key products are OMXS30 index futures and Nordic power futures [33][34]. 3.3 European Futures Market Volume and Price Overview - **Trading Volume in 2024**: The UK market had a turnover of about 1.78 billion lots, a year - on - year increase of 25.5%. Western Europe had a turnover close to 2.3 billion lots, a year - on - year increase of nearly 8%. Northern Europe had a turnover of 63.81 million lots with a slight decline [36]. - **Market Structure**: Western Europe has the most diverse and active market, with stock index futures leading in trading volume. The UK market is energy and interest - rate oriented, and the Northern European market has a small scale but a concentrated trading structure, focusing on local financial markets and specialized fields [40][41]. - **Position Amount at the End of 2024**: Many futures varieties have large position amounts, with some reaching hundreds of billions or even trillions of euros or dollars. For example, EURO - Bund futures had a position of over 1.5 trillion euros, and LME copper futures had a position of 58.6 billion dollars [46].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-06-05 商品氛围转暖，天胶低位反弹 油脂：中加贸易关系存改善预期，菜油表现仍较弱 蛋⽩粕：现货情绪降温，盘面跟随回调 ⽟⽶/淀粉：购销平淡，期货价格震荡运行 ⽣猪：出栏增加，猪价继续下跌 橡㬵：商品氛围转暖，盘面低位反弹 合成橡㬵：原料企稳，盘面小幅收涨 纸浆：近月显著回调更为明显，纸浆维持震荡判断 棉花：利多较为缺乏，棉价偏弱运行 ⽩糖：下榨季预期供需宽松，糖价走弱运行 原⽊：岚山降价，盘面承压 【异动品种】 天然橡㬵观点：商品氛围转暖，盘⾯低位反弹 逻辑：随着胶价已经触及了今年低位水平后，借着由其他商品大涨带动的 多头氛围，胶价昨日出现明显反弹。不过基本面方面变化不大，供给端来 说，泰国仍处于雨季影响当中，但原料价格最终受到期货盘面的拖拽开始 下行，杯胶价格在端午假期期间已经跌至46泰铢，国内外倒挂幅度出现一 定缓解，需要再次观察原料价格何时企稳。需求端来说，轮胎开工整体恢 复力度偏弱，部分企业月底存检修计划，另有少数企业存减产现象，成品 库存积压的情况得到些许缓解，但仍难以见到明显改善。当前来说，宏观 层面仍存较大 ...

跃矿周度发运报告 2025/6/5 研究员: | 美典 | | | | | | | | 从业资格号 P03122523 投资咨询号 陶存辉 从业资格号 F03099559 投资咨询号 张章 从业资格号 F03106996 投资咨询号 商臣 从业资格号 F03100815. 投资咨询号 PF家 从业资格号 F03144159 投资咨询号 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0019832 | | | 20020955 | | | Z0021418 | | | | Z0021807 | | | Z0022199 | | | | | | | | | | | 简评，本轮会球"石发运总量841（+24）万吨。具体来看，澳洲发运环球下降，巴西和车主流发运环比回升。澳洲方面，力敌发运环比减少，同比微磨。8%，7%和北主流发运得德，整体发运小幅减少，同比凯加灯19万吨。巴西方 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/06/05 China Futures Daily Note 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: China plans to support 20 cities including Beijing and Tianjin in implementing urba ...

钢材周度供需数据解读 2025/5/30 研究员: 余典 从业资相号 F03122524 投资咨询号 Z0019832 陶存辉 从业资格号 F03099559 投资资询号 Z0020955 张磊 从业资格号 F03106996 投资咨询号 Z0021-118 薛磊 从业资格号 F03100815 投资咨询号 Z0021807 冉宇蒙 从业资格号 F03144159 投资咨询号 Z0022199 需求略有回暖,预期仍偏悲观 需求:螺纹表需248.68万吨（+1.55）,同比-0.49%;热卷表需326.93万吨（+13.87）,同比3.27%;五大材表需 913.79 万吨（+9.23）,同比1.02%。 供给:螺纹产量225.51万吨（-5.97）,同比-2.58%;热卷产量319.55万吨（+13.87）,同比4.54%;五大材产量880.85万吨（+8.41）,同比-0.96%。 库存: 螺纹库存581.05万吨（-23.17）,同比-3.83%; 热卷库存332.81万吨（-7.38）,同比-2.17%;五大材库存1365.6万吨（-32.94）,同比-2.36%。 -2025 - 2024 - 202 ...

双焦周度数据 2025年05月30日 研究员: | 美典 | 陶存辉 | 张真 | 薛原 | 冉宇蒙 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号 F03122523 | 从业资格号 F03099559 | 从业资格号 F03106996 | 从业资格号 F03100815 | 从业资格号 F03144159 | | 投资咨询号 Z0019832 | 投资咨询号 Z0020955 | 投资咨询号 Z0021418 | 投资咨询号 Z0021807 | 投资咨询号 Z0022199 | | 图表 2: 焦炭周度数据 | | | | | | सेक्स | 指标 | 2025-05-23 | 2025-05-30 | 现 | | 247家钢厂 | 日均铁水产量 | 243.6 | 241. 91 | -1. 69 | | | 产量 | 47.29 | 47. 34 | 0.05 | | | 库存 | 660. 59 | 654. 93 | -5. 66 | | | 库存可用天数 | 11.89 | 11. 71 | -0. 18 | | 全样本独立焦企 | 产量 | 67.3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost provides weak support, leading to a rebound in new energy metal prices. New energy metal prices have been falling, with a slight and temporary contraction in supply. The stabilization of domestic energy prices offers weak cost support, but the supply - demand situation has not significantly improved, and the oversupply pattern continues. To reverse the current decline, a significant contraction in supply is needed. In the short and medium term, the price trend of new energy metals is weak, and cautious participation is advisable. Long - term low prices may accelerate the elimination of production capacity of domestically self - priced varieties [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1.行情观点 Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: During the wet season, supply increases while demand is weak, causing silicon prices to fluctuate under pressure. As of June 4, the price of oxygen - passing 553 in East China was 8150 yuan/ton, and 421 was 8850 yuan/ton. Domestic inventory was 420,900 tons, a 0.4% month - on - month increase. In May 2025, domestic industrial silicon monthly output was 308,000 tons, a 2.3% month - on - month increase and a 24.6% year - on - year decrease. In April, industrial silicon exports were 60,509 tons, a 1.6% month - on - month increase and a 9.2% year - on - year decrease [5]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, large northern factories are gradually resuming production, and supply in the northwest is increasing. In June, the southwest enters the wet season, with the operating rate in Sichuan having already rebounded, and Yunnan's operating rate expected to follow. On the demand side, downstream demand remains weak. Polysilicon factories continue to cut production, and the demand for industrial silicon is still low. The organic silicon industry's operating rate has slightly recovered, and subsequent demand is expected to remain stable. Aluminum alloy has limited impact on industrial silicon demand. Inventory continues to accumulate, but futures prices have fallen rapidly, leading to a reduction in warehouse receipt inventory [5]. - **Outlook**: The current pace of silicon factory复产 in the northwest has slowed, but there is still potential for further复产. In June, production in Sichuan and Yunnan will increase. Under high supply pressure, inventory will continue to accumulate, and silicon prices will remain under pressure, but short - term small rebounds are possible. Silicon prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The number of warehouse receipt registrations has increased, causing polysilicon prices to fluctuate widely. The成交 price range of N - type re -投料 was 36,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 37,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. In April, China's polysilicon exports were about 1,262.3 tons, a 37% month - on - month decrease, and imports were about 954.3 tons, a 67.2% month - on - month decrease [5]. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the speed of polysilicon warehouse receipt registration has accelerated. There is significant uncertainty about polysilicon复产 during the wet season, and it is expected that large - scale factory production capacity will be replaced, greatly alleviating supply pressure. Most silicon material factories are still in a loss state, and polysilicon production is currently at a low level. After the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period, downstream product prices such as components have begun to decline, and there is a risk of weakening demand in the second half of the year [5]. - **Outlook**: The short - term low production of polysilicon has improved the supply - demand situation, but there is a risk of weakening demand in the second half of the year. Polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate widely [5]. Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment is strong, and lithium carbonate prices are rising following the trend. On June 4, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.9% to 61,080 yuan. The total position of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 7,135 lots to 57,874 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan to 60,250 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade price decreased by 50 yuan to 58,650 yuan/ton [6]. - **Main Logic**: The current fundamentals are still loose, but inventory has marginally improved, and the price difference structure has strengthened. Weekly production increased by 487 tons to 16,600 tons. From January to May, domestic cathode materials maintained growth. In June, the off - season production schedule increased slightly more than expected. Social inventory has slightly decreased, and warehouse receipt inventory has also decreased recently. Ore prices are still falling, but have not reached the marginal cost of Australian mines, and no mine production cuts have been observed [7]. - **Outlook**: Demand is weak, and supply is high. Prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The market focuses on local large - consumption hotspots. The Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly on Wednesday, but the trading volume was hard to expand effectively, lacking a sustainable main line. The big - consumption sector was active, but the trading volume limited the market's upside. With potential tariff event fluctuations, it's recommended to maintain an empty - position and wait and see [2][8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The volatility reduction continues, and it's advisable to be cautious with the covered strategy. The underlying market rose across the board, but the options market turnover was lackluster. The positions of some varieties changed significantly, and the volatility of each variety continued to decline. The overall market sentiment was somewhat inconsistent with the underlying market, and the covered strategy should be continued for now [3][8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures rose collectively. The central bank's reverse - repurchase led to a net withdrawal of 600 million yuan, and the capital market remained loose. The market was affected by tariff events and expectations of central - bank operations. In the short term, the long - end bonds are expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation [4][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 行情观点 - **Stock Index Futures**: IF, IH, IC, and IM had changes in basis, inter - period spreads, and positions. The market focused on large - consumption stocks in Hong Kong, but faced challenges such as limited trading volume and potential tariff impacts. The recommended operation is to wait and see [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The underlying market rose, with the CSI 1000 up 0.88%. The options market turnover decreased by 7.67% to 2.814 billion yuan. Some varieties' positions reached short - term highs, and the MO volatility index dropped to around 21%. The covered strategy should be continued [3][8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The trading volume, positions, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL had corresponding changes. The central bank's reverse - repurchase led to a net withdrawal of 600 million yuan. The T contract was affected by tariff events and stock - market movements. The recommended strategies include maintaining an oscillating trend, paying attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, watching for basis widening, and steepening the yield curve in the medium term [8][9]. 经济日历 - Economic data such as the EU's April unemployment rate, May CPI, and core CPI, as well as the US's May ADP employment data are presented, along with predicted and actual values where available [10]. 重要信息资讯跟踪 - In 2025, 25,000 urban old - community renovation projects are planned nationwide, with 5,679 started from January to April. Six regions have a start - up rate of over 50%. - The SCO member states' finance ministers and central bank governors' meeting discussed economic and financial issues and supported actions to deepen regional financial cooperation. - The estimated wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in May were 12.4 million, a 38% year - on - year increase and a 9% month - on - month increase. The cumulative wholesale from January to May was estimated at 52.2 million, a 41% year - on - year increase [11]. 衍生品市场监测 - **Stock Index Futures Data**: The report does not provide specific data details. - **Stock Index Options Data**: The report does not provide specific data details. - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: The report does not provide specific data details.

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-06-05 成品油开始累库，原油或将拖累化⼯进 ⼊偏弱格局 欧美的贸易和谈以及美伊之间的冲突对油价形成支撑，加拿大减产一 度造成WTI强于Brent。6月4日加拿大一运营商开始重启一处因大火关停的 原油生产，后期如果天气合适，加拿大约50万桶/日的原油生产将陆续重 启。EIA发布周报，成品油终于开始出现较大的累库，这表明炼厂开工提 升已经临近尾声，原油的直接需求增量可能临近尾声。 板块逻辑： 化工市场仍处于无主线阶段。焦煤在6月4日日盘大幅反弹7%，对甲醇及 其下游的聚烯烃又拉升作用，聚烯烃自身产业链变化较小，产量同比依旧 有10%以上的增速。聚酯链略显平淡，博弈较大，短纤开始减产减合约， 短纤的加工费立即得到部分修复。市场最大的担忧是后期需求会在抢出口 结束后出现失速，能化品延续震荡整理格局。 原油：美国成品大幅累库，供应压力仍在 LPG：需求仍弱势，PG反弹空间或有限 沥青：沥青期价高估等待回落 高硫燃油：高硫燃油期价如期回落 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价跟随原油震荡 甲醇：煤炭小幅提振，甲醇震荡 尿素：盘面偏弱，等待农需 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - In the stock index futures market, tariff fluctuations have resurfaced, and the trading of micro - cap stocks is becoming more crowded. The market lacks a clear main line, and it is recommended to maintain an empty position and wait and see [1][6]. - In the stock index options market, the sentiment direction is unclear. The current covered - call strategy can still be the main position, but attention should be paid to tail risks [2][6]. - In the treasury bond futures market, the bond market sentiment is weak. In the short term, the bond market lacks a clear direction, and the long - end is expected to oscillate with caution [2][7][8]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Current Situation**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and closed higher with the trading volume remaining flat. During the Dragon Boat Festival, tariff issues resurfaced. Trump announced on May 30 that the import steel tariff would be raised from 25% to 50% starting from June 4, causing the A - share market to open lower after the holiday. The adjustment of index components led to the inflow of incremental funds into rural commercial banks, and the bank sector led the rise. The micro - cap stock index reached a new high, and the trading congestion continued to increase [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain an empty position and wait and see [6]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Current Situation**: The underlying market generally rose yesterday, with only the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 ETF and Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF slightly falling. The option market turnover decreased by 11.62% compared with the last trading day before the holiday. Indicators of each variety are neutral, and the trading and position - holding structures have small daily changes. The skewness of each variety remains at a high level, and the pricing of out - of - the - money puts is relatively high. Volatility has generally declined and is at the lowest level since the September 2024 market [2][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold the covered - call strategy [6]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Current Situation**: Yesterday, the central bank's reverse repurchase resulted in a net withdrawal of 37.55 billion yuan. Although the funds at the beginning of the month were generally loose and the fund interest rate declined, the T main contract oscillated weakly. The May Caixin Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, lower than the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.4, but its impact on the market was limited. The possible phone call between the Chinese and US presidents this week has attracted market attention, and the trading volume of treasury bond futures has declined. The stock - bond seesaw effect is also obvious [2][7][8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend strategies, maintain the view of oscillation; for hedging strategies, pay attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels; for basis strategies, appropriately pay attention to basis widening; for curve strategies, the odds of steepening the curve in the medium term are higher [8]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - Provides economic data such as the unemployment rate, CPI, and GDP of the Eurozone, as well as employment data in the US for the current week, including previous values, predicted values, and some announced values [9]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments are organizing the 2025 new - energy vehicle campaign in rural areas, aiming to promote new - energy vehicles in rural areas and integrate with related pilot projects [10]. - During the Dragon Boat Festival from May 31 to June 2, the cross - regional population mobility was 653.7 million person - times, with a daily average of 217.9 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [10]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The content only mentions the headings of stock index futures data, stock index options data, and treasury bond futures data, but specific data is not provided [11][15][27]