投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-05-29 新能源金属供需弱改善，但过剩预期继续驱 动价格大跌 新能源观点：新能源⾦属供需弱改善，但过剩预期继续驱动价格⼤跌 交易逻辑：价格跌跌不休引发供应持续小幅收缩，供需弱改善。但供 需过剩预期驱动价格进一步恐慌性杀跌，当前价格临近重要敏感成本 支撑区域。中短期来看，新能源金属价格走势偏弱，但逐步临近重要 敏感成本区域，仍需谨防价格双边波动风险；中长期来看，低价或有 望进一步加快国内自主定价品种的产能出清，比如：多晶硅和工业硅 等。 李苏横 从业资格号：F03093505 投资咨询号：Z0017197 郑非凡 从业资格号：F03088415 投资咨询号：Z0016667 白帅 从业资格号：F03093201 投资咨询号：Z0020543 杨飞 从业资格号：F03108013 投资咨询号：Z0021455 ⼯业硅观点：供应压⼒加剧，硅价持续承压。 多晶硅观点：多空博弈加剧，多晶硅价格宽幅波动。 碳酸锂观点：仓单库存去化，碳酸锂⽉差收窄。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not explicitly provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The chemical industry as a whole is in a weak pattern, closely related to the downturn of the cost - end. The instability of crude oil and the decline of coal prices lead to a downward shift in the costs of oil - based and coal - based chemicals. The polyester chain, previously boosted by trade easing, shows signs of weakness due to the cooperative production cuts of filament enterprises [1][2]. - Energy - end weakness drags down chemical product prices. The market needs to see an improvement in demand; otherwise, it will enter a weaker pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On May 28, the SC2507 contract closed at 453 yuan/barrel with a change of - 1.16%, and the Brent2508 contract closed at $64.33/barrel with a change of 0.93%. - The OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries decided to maintain the overall crude oil production target until the end of December 2026. The US sanctions policy on Russia and Iran has high uncertainty. Libya's eastern government may declare force majeure on oil fields and ports. - Short - term macro and geopolitical factors are favorable, but the OPEC+ accelerated production increase limits the rebound space. It is expected to fluctuate [4][5]. 3.1.2 LPG - On May 28, 2025, the PG 2507 contract closed at 4097 yuan/ton with a change of + 0.17%. - There are signs of recovery in the profits of downstream plants in Shandong. The demand for civil gas and chemical use has increased, but the overall demand is still weak. There are multiple PDH plants scheduled to resume production from late May to early June. It is expected to have a short - term recovery but with limited upward space, so it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. 3.1.3 Asphalt - The main asphalt futures closed at 3526 yuan/ton. The spot prices in East China, Northeast, and Shandong were 3580 yuan/ton, 3900 yuan/ton, and 3625 yuan/ton respectively. - The sharp rise in US Treasury yields, tariff conflicts, and OPEC+ over - production are expected to put pressure on asphalt prices. The supply of domestic asphalt raw materials is sufficient, and refinery operations have increased. The demand side shows that asphalt is still over - valued. It is expected that the asphalt price is over - valued and waiting to fall [6]. 3.1.4 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3037 yuan/ton. - Factors such as the sharp rise in US Treasury yields, OPEC+ over - production, increased import tariffs, and reduced demand for power generation will put pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil prices. It is expected that the supply will increase and the demand will decrease, and it will fluctuate weakly [7][8]. 3.1.5 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3530 yuan/ton. - It follows the fluctuation of crude oil. Currently, the supply and demand are both weak. It is expected to face an increase in supply and a decline in demand, and will maintain a low - value operation, following the crude oil fluctuation [8][9]. 3.1.6 PX - On May 28, the PX CFR China Taiwan price was $836(-4)/ton, and the PX 2509 contract closed at 6590(-116) yuan/ton. - In the short term, crude oil is fluctuating weakly due to the OPEC+ production increase policy, squeezing the cost momentum of PX. In terms of supply - demand pattern, the PX processing fee has recovered rapidly, and the impact of plant maintenance on PX has weakened. It is expected that the PX price will continue to consolidate [11]. 3.1.7 PTA - On May 28, the PTA spot price was 4867(-8) yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee was 329(+16) yuan/ton. - The previous maintenance plants are restarting, while the downstream polyester manufacturers may increase production cuts. The PTA inventory reduction speed will slow down, and the polyester industry chain profit may decline. It is expected that the PTA market will continue to be under pressure for adjustment [11]. 3.1.8 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - On May 28, the ethylene glycol price declined. The market was concerned about the further reduction of polyester load. - The decline on the 28th was mainly due to the decline in coal prices and the reduction of polyester filament production. The cost of EG has decreased, and the demand has declined. It is expected that the price will not trend downwards, and investors should view it with a fluctuating mindset [13]. 3.1.9 Short - Fiber - On May 28, the long - filament manufacturers announced an additional 4% production cut, and the PF futures fluctuated lower. - The short - fiber export volume in May may remain at a relatively high level, and the hidden inventory is low. However, there is still great uncertainty about future demand. It is expected that the short - fiber processing fee has limited compression space and will continue to fluctuate strongly [14][15]. 3.1.10 Bottle Chip - On May 28, the polyester raw material futures prices declined, and the polyester bottle chip factory quotes were mostly stable with partial slight decreases. - PTA and EG were dragged down by the long - filament production cuts, and the bottle chips followed the decline. The processing fee of bottle chips will be supported between 300 - 400 yuan/ton, and the absolute price will follow the raw materials and continue to fluctuate [17]. 3.1.11 Methanol - On May 28, the methanol spot price in Taicang was 2230 yuan/ton. The port inventory is gradually entering the accumulation cycle, and the inland price is temporarily stable. - Some Iranian plants are expected to restart this week. The coal price has stabilized slightly after the decline, and the methanol production profit is still relatively high. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [19][20]. 3.1.12 Urea - On May 28, 2025, the urea factory - warehouse and market low - end prices were 1810(+0) and 1860(+10) respectively, and the main contract closed at 1790 yuan/ton with a change of - 1.32%. - The daily urea production has increased, the agricultural demand is in a short - term gap, and the industrial demand is weak. The export is expected to start in June at the earliest. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is expected that the urea futures will fluctuate weakly [20]. 3.1.13 Plastic (LLDPE) - On May 28, the LLDPE spot mainstream price was 7100(-50) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 128(-15) yuan/ton. - The oil price is expected to have a downward space, the coal price has stabilized slightly, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the plastic's own fundamental pressure still exists. It is expected that the LLDPE 09 contract will fluctuate weakly in the short term [22]. 3.1.14 PP - On May 28, the mainstream transaction price of East China拉丝 was 7000(-20) yuan/ton, and the PP main contract basis was 107(-17) yuan/ton. - The oil price is expected to decline, the coal price has stabilized slightly, the short - term maintenance has increased slightly, the downstream demand is still weak, and the supply growth rate is high. It is expected to decline due to supply - demand inertia and wait for a stop - falling signal, with a short - term weak fluctuation [22]. 3.1.15 PVC - The East China calcium carbide - based PVC benchmark price was 4730(-40) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was - 28(+5) yuan/ton. - There are many PVC maintenance plans from May to June, and the inventory is being reduced. However, in the long - term, new production capacity will be put into operation, the domestic demand is in the off - season, and the export is expected to weaken. The cost center of PVC is moving down, and the market is under pressure [24]. 3.1.16 Caustic Soda - The 32% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2750(+0) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 301(+10) yuan/ton. - The supply and demand increased in late May, but there will be many maintenance plans in June, and the supply and demand may be weak. The spot price has reached the peak, and the future supply is expected to be pessimistic. It is expected to fluctuate widely [24]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as SC, WTI, Brent, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [25]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [26]. - **Inter - Variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different categories such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [27]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Data on the basis and spreads of various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. are provided, but specific data details are not fully presented in the given text [28][40][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Maintain the view of more hedging and more volatility overseas, and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets [6]. - Overseas, the inflation expectation structure in the US is stable, and the short - term fundamentals remain resilient. The fiscal impact on short - term sentiment is expected to improve in the next 2 - 3 weeks. In July - September, under the "dual uncertainty" of tariffs and fiscal policy, US stocks and bonds are likely to experience significant fluctuations. - In China, the pro - growth policies maintain their stance, and may still focus on making good use of existing resources. The export resilience and the window period of tariff relaxation support the economic growth rate in the second quarter. The bond market still has value for dip - buying after the capital pressure eases. The stock market and commodities return to the fundamental logic, showing a short - term range - bound trend. It is recommended to focus on the low - valuation and policy - driven logic [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - **Overseas Macro**: Tariff and US debt concerns are the two main lines of market fluctuations in May. The EU requested to extend the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, which was approved by US President Trump. The US House of Representatives passed a large - scale tax - cut and spending bill on May 22, planning to cut taxes by more than $4 trillion and reduce spending by at least $1.5 trillion in the next 10 years. The 20 - year US Treasury bond auction on May 22 was one of the worst in five years, increasing market concerns about the growth of US debt. US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1%, slightly exceeding expectations. The US manufacturing and service PMI in May both performed better than expected [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The domestic economic data in April showed resilience, and policy expectations were generally stable. On May 20, the China - ASEAN Economic and Trade Ministers' Special Meeting was held online, and the two sides announced the full completion of the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0. The People's Bank of China authorized the National Inter - bank Funding Center to announce that the 1 - year and over - 5 - year LPRs were both cut by 10BP in May 2025. At the same time, many state - owned banks such as China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China announced a cut in deposit interest rates, which was the first round of deposit interest rate cuts by state - owned banks this year. In terms of economic data, investment and consumption growth in April slowed down slightly but still showed resilience. In investment, the cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment from January to April was 4.0%, with an expected 4.3% and a previous value of 4.2%. In consumption, the year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods in April was 5.1%, with an expected 5.5% and a previous value of 5.9%; the seasonally adjusted month - on - month growth was 0.24%, with a low growth rate but still showing some growth [6]. - **Asset Views**: Overseas, maintain a view of more volatility for equity assets and be vigilant about market risk preferences. In China, the pro - growth policies maintain their stance. The bond market still has value for dip - buying after the capital pressure eases. The stock market and commodities return to the fundamental logic, showing a short - term range - bound trend [6]. 3.2 View Highlights - **Macro**: Overseas, the stagflation trading cools down, and the long - and short - term allocation ideas diverge. In China, there are moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end implements the established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [7]. - **Finance**: Stock index futures are waiting for a change in volume. Stock index options see enhanced hedging transactions. The bond market for treasury bond futures may still be volatile [7]. - **Precious Metals**: The risk preference rises, and precious metals are in short - term adjustment. The short - term adjustment of gold and silver continues due to the better - than - expected progress of Sino - US negotiations [7]. - **Shipping**: The sentiment declines. Pay attention to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June. The focus is on the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases for the container shipping route to Europe [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: As the off - season approaches, the molten iron output declines, but the ore price remains relatively firm. The demand for steel continues to weaken, and the futures and spot prices decline. The second - round price cut for coke has started, and coke enterprises have difficulty in shipping. The pressure on coking coal inventory reduction increases, and the market sentiment is low [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The inventory reduction generally slows down, and non - ferrous metals remain range - bound. The copper inventory continues to accumulate, and the copper price fluctuates at a high level. The alumina market is in high - level consolidation due to the undetermined revocation of mining licenses [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Sino - US tariffs have dropped significantly, and energy and chemical products are out of the doldrums. The expectation of oil production increase intensifies the pressure on oil prices. The demand for LPG continues to weaken. The asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil prices are overestimated and expected to fall [9]. - **Agriculture**: Sino - US negotiations have achieved substantial progress, and the sentiment is favorable for the cotton price rebound. The warehouse receipt game for rubber continues to ferment, and NR leads the commodity market. The raw materials for synthetic rubber remain weak, and the market is in horizontal consolidation [9].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-05-29 需求低迷，价格持续下⾏ ⿊⾊连续多⽇增仓下跌，贸易商恐慌情绪渐起跟随降价出售。从基本 ⾯看，国内需求季节性⾛弱，⼯地需求受到⾬⽔天⽓影响施⼯进度放 缓，出⼝悲观情绪加剧，"抢出⼝"似乎不及预期。⽬前电炉和部分 ⾼炉已开始亏损，铁⽔有回落预期，同时限产传闻进⼀步利空炉料。 不过对⽐去年情况来看，今年钢材库存压⼒不⼤，海外矿⼭增量不明 显，港⼝库存持续去化。综合来看，⽬前资⾦和预期主导盘⾯，但现 货库存对价格仍有⼀定⽀撑。 ⿊⾊：需求低迷，价格持续下⾏ 黑色连续多日增仓下跌，贸易商恐慌情绪渐起跟随降价出售。从基本 面看，国内需求季节性走弱，工地需求受到雨水天气影响施工进度放 缓，出口悲观情绪加剧，"抢出口"似乎不及预期。目前电炉和部分 高炉已开始亏损，铁水有回落预期，同时限产传闻进一步利空炉料。 不过对比去年情况来看，今年钢材库存压力不大，海外矿山增量不明 显，港口库存持续去化。综合来看，目前资金和预期主导盘面，但现 货库存对价格仍有一定支撑。 1、铁元素方面，铁矿短期供给增量不明显，因海外新项目爬坡进度 不及预 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, the mid - term outlooks are as follows: - Copper: Oscillating on the strong side [5] - Alumina: Oscillating [5] - Aluminum: Oscillating [6] - Zinc: Oscillating on the weak side [7] - Lead: Oscillating [10] - Nickel: Oscillating on the weak side [11] - Stainless steel: Oscillating [15] - Tin: Oscillating [18] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The overall view is that the US dollar is trending weakly, providing support for the non - ferrous metals market. In the short - to - medium term, the real supply - demand fundamentals are expected to strengthen again, and the macro - outlook is positive with some fluctuations. Attention should be paid to structural opportunities and short - long opportunities for varieties with supply disruptions. In the long - term, the demand prospects for base metals are uncertain, and opportunities to short on rallies can be considered for some oversupplied or expected - to - be - oversupplied varieties [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information: Supply disruptions occur at Zijin Mining's mine, and the annual mid - term negotiation for copper processing fees is approaching. China's electrolytic copper production has increased, and the spot premium is stable. The inventory has decreased slightly. Glencore is buying Russian copper for the Chinese market [5]. - Logic: Macro risks have decreased, and the supply of copper mines is tight with ongoing processing fee negotiations. Demand is rising in the peak season, but the inventory decline has slowed down [5]. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to oscillate on the strong side in the short term due to supply constraints and increasing demand [5]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Information: The spot price has a slow increase, and a Guizhou enterprise is resuming production. Guinea is cracking down on mining rights [5]. - Logic: In the short - to - medium term, the supply of bauxite is sufficient, and the tightness of the spot market has eased. There are many long - term news events causing market fluctuations [5]. - Outlook: The logic of near - month production resumption is more certain. Consider 7 - 9/7 - 1 reverse arbitrage after the spot and inventory inflection points [5]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information: The spot price is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. Some enterprises in Sichuan are resuming production. Russia may supply more aluminum to the US [6]. - Logic: Tariff issues have improved, and the supply growth is limited. The demand is strengthening, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance in the long - term [6]. - Outlook: The demand is rising slightly, and the inventory is expected to decline. It is recommended to go long on dips, and the price will oscillate [6]. 3.1.4 Zinc - Information: The spot premium is stable, and the inventory is decreasing. A mine's production is expected to be lower than expected [7]. - Logic: The market has digested the maintenance news. The supply of zinc ore is loosening, and the demand is seasonally rising but with limited new orders [7]. - Outlook: The demand is recovering, but the long - term supply surplus is expected, and the price will oscillate on the weak side [7]. 3.1.5 Lead - Information: The price of waste batteries has increased, and the lead ingot price has decreased slightly. The inventory has decreased, and it is the traditional consumption off - season [10]. - Logic: The spot discount is stable, the supply cost is rising, and the demand from battery factories is good [10]. - Outlook: After the Geneva negotiation, the tariff impact has weakened. The demand is in the off - season, but the cost support is stable, and the price will oscillate [10]. 3.1.6 Nickel - Information: The LME and domestic inventories are increasing. Indonesia has various policies and events affecting the nickel market [11]. - Logic: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industry fundamentals are weakening marginally, with high inventory and supply pressure [11]. - Outlook: Short - term wide - range oscillation, and short on rallies for the long - term [11]. 3.1.7 Stainless steel - Information: The futures warehouse receipt inventory has decreased, and the spot premium has widened. The predicted price of Indonesian nickel ore is stable to slightly decreasing [15]. - Logic: The price of nickel and chromium is stable, and the supply is high. The demand is out of the peak season, and the inventory has decreased [15]. - Outlook: Cost provides some support, but demand is weakening. The price will oscillate in the short term [15]. 3.1.8 Tin - Information: The inventory in London and Shanghai has changed, and the spot price has increased slightly. There are rumors of tin ore inflows from Wa State [18]. - Logic: The market sentiment has improved, and the fundamentals are still resilient. However, supply disruptions are easing, and the long - term demand is not optimistic [18]. - Outlook: The macro - environment has improved, but the upside is limited. The price will oscillate, and the performance of开工 rate and inventory will determine the price height in the second quarter [18]. 3.2行情监测 The report only lists the names of different metals (copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin) for monitoring, but no specific monitoring content is provided [21][35][47][60][64][84][99][109]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 展望：短期来看，基本面情绪仍偏弱，当前端午假期临近，且短期盘面 更多是围绕着情绪交易，操作上建议暂时观。 ⻛险因素：宏观对商品超预期的扰动，天气。 农业团队 油脂：美豆种植顺利推进，昨日棕油表现相对偏强 蛋⽩粕：双粕减仓收涨，或步入震荡调整 ⽟⽶/淀粉：暂无明确驱动，玉米震荡运行 ⽣猪：端午节日拉动，消费小幅增加 橡㬵：情绪崩塌，NR从领涨到领跌 合成橡㬵：天胶大跌拖拽，盘面跌回低位 纸浆：外盘报价下调冲击，纸浆重回弱势 棉花：大宗商品氛围转弱，棉价震荡走弱 ⽩糖：糖价震荡偏弱运行 原⽊：空头离场，原木反弹 ⻛险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 橡㬵：情绪崩塌，NR从领涨到领跌 逻辑：从5月27日夜盘开始，RU增仓持续下行，今日不仅打破了清明假期 后的低点，更是回到了去年3月以来的新低。而NR在前一日增仓炒作仓单 快速注销的看涨氛围还未消散的背景下，夜盘开盘后快速减仓，最终造 成多头踩踏式下跌。然而在今天大跌后，仍有超1万吨仓单被继续注销， 关注后续情绪变化。基本面方面变化不大，从供给端来说，泰国由于雨 季提前导致割胶工作开展并不顺利， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Shipping companies are affected by freight rate and fuel cost fluctuations. SCFIS(Europe) futures (EC) can manage freight rate volatility risks, and fuel oil futures (FU/LU) can hedge fuel cost fluctuations. The report constructs a hedging operation plan for container shipping futures from seven perspectives for enterprises' reference. Shipping companies can adopt different methods for cost management under different circumstances [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Background 3.1.1 Participants of EC - **Shipping Enterprises**: They play an upstream role in the container shipping industry chain, usually operating in alliances. They can short EC to secure income. For example, in 2025, Mediterranean Shg Co ranked first globally with a fleet of 6,591,391 TEU and a share of 20.50% [15][18]. - **Freight Forwarders**: They are an important link between upstream shipping companies and downstream cargo owners. China's freight forwarding enterprises are under the supervision of the Ministry of Commerce. They bear the dual - sided volatility of freight rates. In 2024, Sinotrans ranked first in global ocean freight forwarders with a cargo volume of 4,872,248 TEU [20][22]. - **Cargo Owners**: They are usually worried about the climb of spot freight and can hold long positions in the container shipping futures market to manage risks. Cargo owners interested in EC are mainly in six industries: automobile, chemical, furniture, paper, photovoltaic, and home appliance. For example, the Red Sea Crisis led to unavailable export container space and volatile freight rates eroding profits [26]. 3.1.2 Hedging Principles - **Price Correlation**: The essence of hedging is risk hedging, based on the principle that spot and futures prices fluctuate in the same direction, and opposite positions are established to mitigate risks. Innovative derivative tools like OTC options, freight rate ETFs, and "insurance + futures" can also be used for freight rate risk management. Due to short listing periods and various events, freight rates have shown wide fluctuations. The SCFIS Europe reflects actual departure freight rates, but there is a timing discrepancy between the basis and the reflection of the spot market [31][35]. - **Basis Influence**: BASIS = SPOT PRICE - FUTURES PRICE. The impact of basis changes on hedging results varies. For short hedging, a stable basis leads to a perfect hedge, a weakening basis results in a net loss, and a strengthening basis leads to a net profit. The opposite is true for long hedging [37][39]. 3.1.3 Freight and Fuel Oil price comparison There is a weak correlation between marine fuel oil prices and container shipping freight rates. Container shipping spot market freight rates are affected by seasonal and supply - chain factors, while fuel prices are influenced by international crude oil markets, geopolitics, and refining capacity. Whether shipping companies can pass on fuel cost increases to freight rate hikes depends on market competition [43]. 3.2 EC Hedging Scheme 3.2.1 Risk Exposure Container shipping companies face dual fluctuations in revenue and costs. Revenue is mainly determined by freight rates and is highly correlated with freight indices like CCFI, which can be hedged through EC. Costs are mostly fixed, but fuel oil price fluctuations have a significant impact on costs [49]. 3.2.2 Seven Steps - **Different Risk Exposures and Demands**: Upstream shipping enterprises worried about falling freight rates can open short positions; midstream freight forwarding enterprises bear dual risks and need balanced positions; downstream manufacturing and trading enterprises worried about rising freight rates can open long positions [58][59]. - **Hedging Scale**: Determine the actual risk exposure by considering long - term contracts and risk management ratios. Enterprises can conduct monthly rolling risk hedging based on actual monthly freight volume [64]. - **Hedging Quantity**: Divide the enterprise's monthly freight volume by the value of one futures contract on the disk to obtain the number of open positions. By mid - April 2025, one futures contract corresponded to approximately 9.1 TEUs or 5.86 FEUs [70]. - **Hedging Contracts**: Generally, prefer the main contract. If the forward contract has good liquidity and meets the psychological price, choose the contract close to the actual shipment time [74]. - **Impact of Container Type**: Enterprises mostly use a single container type of 40 - foot or 20 - foot. The freight rate ratio between them is long - term stable but may fluctuate due to supply - demand mismatches [78]. - **Impact of Exchange Rates**: Freight rates are settled in US dollars, and there is a certain negative correlation between exchange rates and freight rates. Exchange rates affect exports and indirectly influence trade demand and container freight rates. Overall, freight rates are mainly determined by their own supply and demand [83]. - **Determine the Route**: The correlation between SCFI Europe and major ocean routes exceeds 90%. The hedging scale can be converted according to the average ratio of SCFI Europe freight rates to those of other major international routes. Coastal port freight rate differences are minimal, allowing hedging for non - Shanghai port export routes [89]. 3.2.3 Hedging Cases A shipping company in February 2025 expected to undertake 100 TEUs of cargo in April. Worried about the decline in freight rates in the off - season, it conducted sell hedging. Although the spot market price fell, the futures hedge reduced the loss to less than 10,000 RMB [93]. 3.3 Fuel Oil Hedging Scheme 3.3.1 Buy Hedging - **Basic Concepts**: As fuel oil futures and spot prices have similar trends, fuel oil futures can be used for hedging. Good buy - hedging timing includes when the supply - demand relationship turns from weak to strong, industry profits are low, the basis is high, and market expectations improve. Shipping companies can use inventory management + spot - futures arbitrage and procurement agency to hedge raw material price increase risks [99]. - **Strategic Path**: Conduct cost risk management by order through futures instruments [103]. 3.3.2 Sell Hedging - **Basic Concepts**: Fuel oil futures contracts can be used for hedging. Shipping companies can achieve inventory management + spot - futures arbitrage and inventory hedging. Good sell - hedging timing includes when the supply - demand relationship turns from strong to weak, industry profits are high, the basis is low, and market expectations deteriorate [108]. - **Cases**: In January 2020, a shipping company conducted fuel oil selling hedging. Although the spot price declined, the futures hedge not only offset the spot losses but also generated additional gains due to the strengthening basis [113]. - **Characteristics**: Take orders as units to conduct cost risk management through futures, locking in order gross profit and processing profits within a controllable range [117]. 3.4 Comparison of Profit - to - Spot Fuel Price Ratio of Shipping Companies - The correlation between the profits of container shipping companies and the ratio of freight rates to fuel oil prices reaches 69.5%. Freight rates remain the main factor causing fluctuations in net profits. There is a certain correlation between freight rates and fuel oil prices, and shipping companies' net profit is highly correlated with both. Shipping companies can lock in profits to some extent by using futures tools [122][127]. 3.5 Futures Contracts - **EC Futures Contracts**: The contract multiplier is 50 Yuan per index point, with a minimum price fluctuation of 0.1 index points. It has specific trading hours, daily price limits, and settlement types [129]. - **FU Futures Contracts**: The contract size is 10 metric tons/lot, with a minimum price fluctuation of 1 Yuan/metric ton. It has physical delivery and specific trading and delivery periods [132]. - **LU Futures Contracts**: Similar to FU, with a contract size of 10 metric tons/lot, specific trading and delivery months, and physical delivery [133].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/05/28 Risks: Macroeconomic fluctuations, geopolitical situations, and reversals in policy trends. 宏观方面：1—4 月份全国规模以上工业企业利润总额同比增长 1.4%。 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 A ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various asset classes and industries. It maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas, and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, the US inflation expectation structure is stable with short - term fundamental resilience, while in China, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Different industries and asset classes are expected to show different trends, mostly in a state of oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Tariff and US debt concerns are the main drivers of market volatility in May. The EU has requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, which was approved by President Trump. The US House of Representatives passed a large - scale tax - cut and spending bill, increasing concerns about US debt. US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1%, and the May manufacturing and service PMIs were better than expected [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: April's domestic economic data showed resilience, and policy expectations were generally stable. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation was completed. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs were both cut by 10BP in May, and major state - owned banks lowered deposit rates. Investment and consumption growth in April slightly slowed down but remained resilient. Fixed - asset investment from January to April increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1% year - on - year in April [6]. - **Asset View**: In the large - scale asset category, the report maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. In the overseas market, the US inflation expectation structure is stable, and the short - term fundamentals are resilient. In the Chinese market, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Bonds have allocation value after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The proportion of small - cap and micro - cap trading volume shows a downward trend, and the stock index discount is converging, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and attention should be paid to the option market liquidity, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations, with an expected oscillation [7]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, with an expected oscillation [7]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Demand continues to weaken, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The arrival of shipments has been continuously low, and port inventories have decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, and port inventory changes, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coke enterprises are having difficulty in shipping. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The pressure to reduce inventory is increasing, and market sentiment is low. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, with an expected oscillation and increase [7]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the aluminum oxide market oscillates at a high level. Attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of production increase is strengthened, and oil prices continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the US sanctions on Iran, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **LPG**: Demand continues to weaken, and LPG maintains a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Concerns about tariffs have subsided, and the over - expected scale of EG maintenance has boosted futures prices. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand for ethylene glycol, with an expected oscillation and increase [9]. Agriculture - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of pigs stopped falling before the festival, but the futures market remained weak. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillate slightly. Attention should be paid to demand and production, with an expected oscillation [9].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-05-28 美元走势偏弱，有色下方仍有支撑 铜观点：供应端再现扰动，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：⼏内亚消息博弈，氧化铝远⽉⾼位回落。 铝观点：贸易紧张局势缓解，铝价偏强震荡。 锌观点：锌锭库存再度去化，锌价⼩幅反弹。 铅观点：成本⽀撑暂稳，铅价震荡运⾏。 镍观点：供需整体偏弱，短期镍价宽幅震荡。 不锈钢观点：镍铁价格回升，盘⾯震荡运⾏。 锡观点：⾼价抑制补库意愿，锡价震荡运⾏。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 李苏横 从业资格号：F03093505 投资咨询号：Z0017197 有⾊观点：美元⾛势偏弱，有⾊下⽅仍有⽀撑 交易逻辑：5月欧美制造业PMI初值好于预期且回升，美元指数延续弱 势；上周末前特朗普威胁6月1日起对欧洲加税50%，但随后延期至7月 9日，这意味着美国关税政策仍有反复，不过整体略偏正面。供需面 来看，基本金属供需有再度趋紧迹象，库存整体重回去化，并且像铜 等品种再度出现矿端扰动的问题。中短期来看，现实供需基本面支撑 ...