Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange launched a large - scale IPO mechanism reform on August 4, 2025, aiming to balance the new - share allocation ratio between institutional and retail investors [2]. - In August 2025, the number of new stocks was small, and the new - share subscription opportunities were limited. The new - share subscription yield was thin, and the basis difference dragged down the portfolio return. This situation may continue in September [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 New - share Subscription Rules - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's IPO reform requires issuers to allocate at least 40% of new shares to institutional investors, who can participate in new - share pricing through a 40% book - building allocation share [2]. - The retail investors' allocation ratio has decreased. For example, when a new stock is over - subscribed 100 times, the retail allocation ratio drops to 35% [2]. - The initial public shareholding ratio is set according to market capitalization brackets, with the initial public shareholding ratio of H - shares decreasing from 15% to 10% [2]. - At least 25% of an issuer's shares after listing should be freely tradable to prevent excessive concentration of chips [2]. 3.2 Market Environment - In August 2025, only three new stocks were listed on the main board and the Star Market and ChiNext, with a total market capitalization of less than 10 billion yuan. The new - share subscription success rate and the number of offline institutional subscriptions decreased significantly compared to the first half of the year [2]. - In September 2025, it is expected that 3 new stocks will be listed on the Star Market and ChiNext, and new - share subscription opportunities remain limited [2]. 3.3 New - share Subscription Yield - With a 150 - million - yuan stock bottom - position, the offline new - share subscription portfolio yield in August was about - 0.33%. The significant loss was mainly due to the impact of the market on the basis difference [3]. - In August, due to a deep discount at the beginning of the month and a large influx of speculative funds into the futures market, the discounts of IF and IH accelerated to converge. The monthly bottom - position hedging loss was about - 0.42%, and the new - share income could not cover the cost of discount convergence [3]. - In September, the IF discount is still deep, and the impact of the basis difference on the portfolio strategy cannot be underestimated. It is recommended to wait for the IF discount to converge and more new - share subscription opportunities to appear before making in - depth arrangements [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillation [6] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillation [6] - **Corn/Starch**: Weak oscillation [7] - **Live Pigs**: Oscillation [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillation [9] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillation [12] - **Cotton**: Oscillation with a slight upward trend [13] - **Sugar**: Weak oscillation [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillation [16] - **Logs**: Weak oscillation [16] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, and the pig price is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" policy may lead to a turnaround in the pig cycle in 2026 [1][8]. - Oils and fats may continue to oscillate and adjust in the short term, but have a high probability of running strongly in the medium term [6]. - Protein meal is expected to continue to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge [6]. - The market sentiment for corn should not be overly pessimistic. Traders are pre - arranging to stock up, and there are opportunities for short - term profit - taking and long - term low - buying [7][8]. - The upward driving force of rubber prices is limited, but the downside support is strong, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [9][11]. - Synthetic rubber follows the oscillation of natural rubber, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [12]. - Cotton prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger from now to early October, with the key to upward breakthrough being the purchase price. After the large - scale listing of new cotton, prices may be under pressure [13]. - Sugar prices are under increasing supply pressure and are expected to run weakly [15]. - The core driving force of pulp futures is difficult to determine, and the trend is expected to be oscillating [16]. - The log market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly oscillating [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Live Pigs - **Supply**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in September is expected to increase. In the medium term, the supply of commercial pigs in the second half of the year is expected to increase. In the long term, the "anti - involution" policy aims to eliminate excess capacity, but there are resistance to active production cuts [1][8]. - **Demand**: The temperature is getting cooler, the price difference between fat and lean pigs is expanding, and the price ratio of meat to pigs is stable [1][8]. - **Inventory**: The average slaughter weight decreased slightly this week, and the weight inventory is higher than the same period last year, with the main goal of destocking before the National Day [1][8]. - **Outlook**: Before the National Day, the spot and near - month pig prices are expected to remain weak. The far - month contract prices are supported by the expectation of supply - side capacity reduction, presenting a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [2][8]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - **Macro Environment**: The market focuses on the Fed's September monetary policy expectations, and the US dollar is oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and US crude oil supply and demand [6]. - **Industrial End**: The drought - affected area of US soybeans is expanding, and the export demand of US soybeans is affected by Sino - US trade relations. The inventory of domestic soybeans and rapeseed has different trends, and attention should be paid to trade negotiations and policies [6]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, oils and fats may continue to oscillate and adjust. In the medium term, they are more likely to run strongly [6]. 3.3 Protein Meal - **International Situation**: The excellent rate of US soybeans is high, and attention should be paid to weather changes. The discount of Brazilian soybeans has been adjusted, and the export of US soybeans is affected by the trade war [6]. - **Domestic Situation**: The spot price is stable, and the downstream demand is expected to improve. There is no supply gap before December, and attention should be paid to trade relations and national reserve auctions [6]. - **Outlook**: The internal - external price difference may be repaired, and it is expected to oscillate within a range [6]. 3.4 Corn/Starch - **Supply**: The inventory of old - crop corn is decreasing, and new - crop corn is about to be listed. There are doubts about whether there will be a supply gap during the transition period [7][8]. - **Demand**: The downstream inventory is seasonally low, and the procurement intention of large feed enterprises is low, but small enterprises in South China are replenishing stocks [8]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, short - term short positions are recommended to take profits, and opportunities to short on rebounds can be waited for. In the long term, there is a low - buying opportunity [7][8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Market Information**: The prices of various rubber products and raw materials have different changes, and the global natural rubber production and consumption have different trends [9]. - **Logic**: The upward driving force of rubber prices is limited, but the downside support is strong. There are many speculative themes, and the short - term supply may decrease while the demand is rigid [9][11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene have different trends [12]. - **Logic**: The synthetic rubber market follows the natural rubber market, and the short - term tightness of raw material butadiene provides cost support [12]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **Supply**: The commercial inventory of cotton is at a low level in the same period, and the supply pattern is tight before the new cotton is listed [13]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is gradually picking up, and the orders are increasing [13]. - **Purchase**: The expected purchase price of seed cotton by ginners may increase, but the expected large increase in new cotton production will suppress the increase [13]. - **Outlook**: From now to early October, it is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, and the key to upward breakthrough is the purchase price. After the large - scale listing of new cotton, prices may be under pressure [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **International Market**: In the new crushing season, the sugar production in Brazil, Thailand, and India is expected to increase [15]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic sugar is in the pure sales period, and the import volume is increasing [15]. - **Outlook**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the sugar price is expected to run weakly [15]. 3.9 Pulp - **Market Situation**: The pulp futures have been weak, and the main reason for the decline is the low market acceptance of Brilliant Needle pulp [16]. - **Outlook**: The internal contradictions of the pulp market are divided, and the trend is expected to be oscillating [16]. 3.10 Logs - **Market Situation**: The log market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations, with some positive factors such as cost support and reduced supply pressure [16]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be weakly oscillating [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Oscillating [7] - Alumina: Oscillating weakly [8] - Aluminum: Oscillating [10] - Aluminum alloy: Oscillating [13] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [16] - Lead: Oscillating [17] - Nickel: Oscillating strongly in the short - term, waiting - and - seeing in the long - term [23] - Stainless steel: Oscillating in the short - term [24] - Tin: Oscillating [25] 2. Report's Core View - Overall non - ferrous metals: Weak US dollar and the fermentation of reverse invoicing issues are driving up the prices of basic metals. In the medium and short - term, prices are supported but the weak terminal demand limits the upside. In the long - term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions support prices [1]. - Copper: Macro factors and supply disruptions support prices, and low inventory also provides support, but the US copper tariff is a negative factor [7]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are weak, with strong inventory accumulation trends, but short - term supply fluctuations and long - term mine disturbances need attention [9]. - Aluminum: Short - term macro sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals are neutral. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and inventory and consumption need to be observed [12]. - Aluminum alloy: The cost is supported, supply is reduced, demand is rigid, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [13]. - Zinc: The fundamentals are in surplus, and prices may oscillate weakly in the long - term [16]. - Lead: Supply and demand are basically balanced this week, but the release of smelter inventory after the events may pressure prices, and the price is expected to oscillate [19]. - Nickel: The market expects Indonesia's RKAB approval soon, so the price is oscillating strongly in the short - term, and the industry needs to observe the raw material and macro factors [23]. - Stainless steel: The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the implementation of the peak season and inventory changes need attention [24]. - Tin: The supply is tight, providing a strong bottom support, but the terminal demand is weakening, so the price is expected to oscillate [25]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - Information analysis: The Fed may cut interest rates, US GDP growth is better than expected, copper production has decreased, the spot premium has declined, and inventory has increased [7]. - Main logic: Macro factors and supply disruptions support copper prices, and low inventory also provides support, but the demand needs to be observed [7]. - Outlook: Copper may oscillate [8]. 3.2 Alumina - Information analysis: Spot prices have declined, some enterprises have reduced production due to environmental protection, and warehouse receipts have increased [8]. - Main logic: The fundamentals are weak, with strong inventory accumulation trends, but short - term supply fluctuations and long - term mine disturbances need attention [9]. - Outlook: Oscillating weakly, with opportunities for short - selling and reverse arbitrage [11]. 3.3 Aluminum - Information analysis: The price and inventory of aluminum have changed, an Indonesian enterprise is expected to be put into production, and the performance of related listed companies has been released [10]. - Main logic: Short - term macro sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals are neutral. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and inventory and consumption need to be observed [12]. - Outlook: The aluminum price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [12]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - Information analysis: The price and spread of aluminum alloy have changed, the exchange has adjusted margins and price limits, and the performance of related listed companies has been released [13]. - Main logic: The cost is supported, supply is reduced, demand is rigid, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [13]. - Outlook: Short - term prices are oscillating at a low level, and there is room for recovery and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [15]. 3.5 Zinc - Information analysis: The spot discount and inventory of zinc have increased, and a smelter will conduct maintenance [15]. - Main logic: The fundamentals are in surplus, and prices may oscillate weakly in the long - term [16]. - Outlook: Zinc prices may oscillate weakly in the long - term [16]. 3.6 Lead - Information analysis: The price, spread, and inventory of lead have changed, and the market transaction is light [16]. - Main logic: Supply and demand are basically balanced this week, but the release of smelter inventory after the events may pressure prices, and the price is expected to oscillate [19]. - Outlook: The lead price is expected to oscillate [19]. 3.7 Nickel - Information analysis: The inventory of nickel has increased, and there are many industry news items [19]. - Main logic: The market sentiment dominates the price, the industry fundamentals are weakening marginally, and short - term trading is recommended [23]. - Outlook: The nickel price is oscillating strongly in the short - term, and waiting - and - seeing in the long - term [23]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - Information analysis: The inventory of stainless steel warehouse receipts has increased, and the production in Indonesia is normal [24]. - Main logic: The prices of nickel - iron and chromium - iron have changed, production has increased, and inventory has decreased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [24]. - Outlook: The stainless steel price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [24]. 3.9 Tin - Information analysis: The inventory and price of tin have changed, and a company will conduct maintenance [25]. - Main logic: The supply is tight, providing a strong bottom support, but the terminal demand is weakening, so the price is expected to oscillate [25]. - Outlook: The tin price is expected to oscillate, and the volatility may increase [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, individual product outlooks are given, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", "oscillating strongly", etc. These ratings are based on the expected price movements of the products within the next 2 - 12 weeks, with different definitions for each rating in terms of standard deviations [272]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International crude oil has shown a slightly stronger trend recently. Concerns about supply disruptions due to Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil infrastructure have boosted oil prices, but the overall market is still under supply pressure from OPEC+增产 and US production resilience. The market expects OPEC+ to maintain the current production policy at the upcoming meeting. Oil prices are likely to oscillate to digest the supply disturbances caused by the Ukraine attacks [1]. - The chemical industry continues to oscillate and consolidate. There is no dominant market logic, and futures prices fluctuate with raw materials and market sentiment. The uncertainty of the commissioning time of chemical plants, especially ethylene glycol plants, increases the difficulty of investment. If the chemical industry rebounds following crude oil, investors can gradually short products with severe over - capacity, such as olefins [2]. - Investors should approach oil - chemical products with an oscillating mindset and wait for the implementation of specific policies to address the over - competition in China's petrochemical industry. 3. Summary by Product Category Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. - **Main Logic**: Tensions between the US and Venezuela and Trump's changing attitude towards Russia support geopolitical premiums and increase oil price volatility. However, the supply pressure from OPEC+增产 and US production resilience makes it difficult to reverse the market's oversupply expectation. Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations [7]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The escalation of the US - Venezuela situation has led to a significant increase in the geopolitical premium of asphalt. - **Main Logic**: The market has refocused on negative factors such as tariff increases and OPEC+增产, but the recent escalation of the US - Venezuela situation has led to expectations of a supply cut in asphalt raw materials, driving up asphalt futures prices. However, the supply tension has been significantly alleviated, and the demand is still not optimistic. The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [8]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil has increased significantly. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and between the US and Venezuela have enhanced the geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil, but the increase is limited by the increase in warehouse receipts. The import tariff of fuel oil in China has been raised, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil has changed. The three main drivers supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are showing a weakening trend. Geopolitical upgrades are expected to have only a short - term impact on prices [8]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has followed the increase in crude oil prices. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has oscillated and declined following crude oil. It is facing multiple negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It is expected to follow crude oil price fluctuations while maintaining a low valuation [10]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: There is still an expectation of shutdown in the far - month contract, and the methanol futures price has rebounded. - **Main Logic**: On September 2, the methanol futures price oscillated. The far - month shutdown expectation has caused the futures price to decline first and then rebound significantly. The fundamentals of downstream olefins provide limited support. Considering the high certainty of overseas shutdowns in the far - month, opportunities for going long in the far - month can be considered [19]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The release of the Indian tender has been postponed, and the market is generally waiting and watching. It is expected to strengthen soon. - **Main Logic**: As of September 2, information on the Indian tender and export policies has not been finalized, and the market is waiting and watching. The futures price has rebounded slightly, and the spot prices in different regions have diverged. The supply is expected to decrease, and the autumn demand is expected to pick up. Attention should be paid to the Indian tender price and subsequent export progress [19][20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The news of commissioning has stimulated the futures market to weaken. - **Main Logic**: The narrow fluctuations of coal and oil prices provide limited cost guidance. The news of the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's ethylene and downstream products has had a negative impact on the market, increasing supply pressure. Although the supply - demand structure shows some signs of weakening, the market is still in the de - stocking cycle, which provides some support [14][15][16]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Cost and sentiment fluctuations are still the main driving forces. - **Main Logic**: The commodity sentiment is poor, and PX has continued to decline. The upstream load has remained stable, but the commissioning of aromatic hydrocarbon plants has increased supply pressure. The downstream PTA plants are operating at a low level, and polyester demand is fair. PX is expected to maintain a tight balance, and its price is expected to fluctuate with cost and macro - sentiment [11]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: It is oscillating to find support, and cost and sentiment dominate the direction. - **Main Logic**: The Russia - Ukraine issue has stalled, and the crude oil market has been in a stalemate, providing limited guidance. After the hype of upstream plants subsided, the commodity sentiment cooled down, and the spot basis weakened. The downstream polyester sales and production have limited improvement, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is not high. It is expected to seek support downward in the short term, with a limited overall decline [11]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: There is an expectation of plant restart, and the quality of demand still needs to be verified. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost performance is poor, and the absolute price of short - fiber has declined accordingly. The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, the downstream sales and production are mediocre, and the terminal's procurement behavior is cautious. The quality of the peak season still needs to be verified. The absolute value of short - fiber will fluctuate with raw materials and oscillate in the short term [16]. Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: The production cut in September remains at 20% and can be expanded to 30% if necessary. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost is still seeking support, and the price of polyester bottle chips is oscillating weakly. The supply - demand drive is limited, and the overall order intake has declined in the off - season. The processing margin has no obvious expansion driver and will maintain an oscillating consolidation [17][18]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The support from maintenance is limited, and PP is oscillating weakly. - **Main Logic**: News of addressing the petrochemical over - capacity through plant maintenance has limited actual impact. Oil prices are oscillating in the short term, and geopolitical uncertainties remain. The supply side of PP is still increasing, and there is inventory pressure in the upstream and mid - stream. The demand has a peak - off - season switch, and the pipe - making industry's start - up rate has increased. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [22]. Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: PL follows the short - term fluctuations of PP. - **Main Logic**: On September 2, PL oscillated. Propylene enterprises' inventories are at a low level, and they are mainly pushing up prices. Downstream factories purchase on demand. The short - term market follows PP fluctuations, and the polypropylene processing fee is the key focus on the market [23]. Plastic - **Viewpoint**: The performance of peak - season demand is the short - term focus, and plastic is oscillating. - **Main Logic**: News of addressing the petrochemical over - capacity and the elimination of South Korean petrochemical capacity have limited actual impact. Oil prices are oscillating, and geopolitical uncertainties remain. There is still a capital game in the macro - environment, and the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption expectation still exists. The fundamentals of plastic are still under pressure, with high production and inventory levels. Attention should be paid to the downstream start - up rate and purchasing willingness [21]. Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The port will return to inventory accumulation, and the price of pure benzene will oscillate weakly. - **Main Logic**: More naphtha buyers are seeking October shipments, and the market expects a tightening supply due to planned maintenance in the Middle East and reduced exports from Russian refineries. However, the increase in imported pure benzene at the port and the return of the anti - over - competition sentiment in the energy and chemical industry have led to a decline in the price of pure benzene. The demand verification is crucial as the peak season approaches, but the orders of downstream products have not improved significantly [13]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The inventory pressure is prominent, and styrene continues to decline. - **Main Logic**: The decline of styrene is mainly due to the cooling of the anti - over - competition sentiment in the energy and chemical industry and the black commodity sentiment. Its fundamentals are poor, and it is significantly weaker than other chemical products. The explicit and implicit inventories are high, and the cost support is insufficient. The peak - season demand has not materialized, and the downstream demand is weak. There is some support at the valuation level of 7000 - 7100, but there is no positive driver for a rebound [14][15][16]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Weak market conditions are suppressing PVC, and it is operating weakly. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the domestic anti - over - competition policy has not been implemented, and the probability of overseas interest rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, with a decline in cost. The production is expected to decline in September due to autumn maintenance, the downstream start - up rate has not changed much, the export expectation is under pressure, and the cost is moving down. The market sentiment is poor, and the inventory is increasing, so the market is expected to operate weakly [25]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price rebound has slowed down, and the market is on hold for now. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the domestic anti - over - competition policy has not been implemented, and the probability of overseas interest rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the fundamentals have improved marginally, with increased demand for replenishment, improved non - aluminum start - up rates, increased export orders, and a slight decline in production due to maintenance. The spot price has reached a temporary peak, and the market is expected to oscillate due to the expectation of alumina production in the far - month [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "neutral" rating for the overall black building materials industry, with a mid - term outlook of "sideways" [6]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the military parade approaches, production restrictions and cut - backs in steel mills and the coal - coke sector have intensified. After the parade, there is a high possibility of production resumption, and the industry may still have upward potential. The subsequent price fluctuations of industry products will be dominated by the production resumption logic after the parade, and the macro and policy expectations at home and abroad may also affect price volatility [1][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month as expected. Iron water production decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of further decline as steel mills in Hebei enter maintenance. However, the impact is limited, and iron ore demand may return to a high level after the parade. Port inventories decreased, and the total inventory declined slightly. The price is expected to move sideways. For scrap steel, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. With low EAF profits and tight resources, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - As the parade approaches, coke production restrictions are stronger than those of steel mills. The short - term coke supply remains tight, and the price has support before the parade. After the parade, the recovery of iron water production needs to be monitored. The coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. 3.3 Alloys - For ferromanganese - silicon, the current inventory pressure of manufacturers is acceptable, and the cost provides short - term price support. However, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price has significant downward pressure. For ferrosilicon, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not large, and the cost supports the price in the short term. But the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline [2]. 3.4 Glass - The current demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong, and raw material prices are firm. After the post - trading of delivery contradictions, the far - month contract still offers a premium. In the medium - to - long - term, market - based capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline sideways [3][13]. 3.5 Soda Ash - The supply - surplus situation remains unchanged. After the decline in the futures price, spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [6][16]. 3.6 Specific Product Analyses - **Steel**: The cost support is strong, and the futures price has stopped falling and stabilized. Although the current fundamentals are weak, after the parade, iron water production may return to a high level, and the potential for phased restocking during the peak season may drive the price up [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to move sideways. Overseas mine shipments and arrivals increased, iron water production decreased slightly, and inventories decreased [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamentals have no prominent contradictions. With low EAF profits and tight resources, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [10]. - **Coke**: The voices for price hikes are weakening, and the futures price is moving sideways. The short - term supply remains tight, and the price has support before the parade. After the parade, the recovery of iron water production needs attention [12]. - **Coking Coal**: The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term. After the parade, the impact of short - term disturbances will disappear, and future regulatory policies, coal mine production resumption, and Mongolian coal imports need to be monitored [12][13]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The inventory pressure of manufacturers is acceptable, and the cost provides short - term support. However, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price has significant downward pressure [16][17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The inventory pressure of manufacturers is not large, and the cost supports the price in the short term. But the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline [18].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-09-03 对冲防御为主 股指期货：筹码有松动迹象 股指期权：对冲防御为主 国债期货：继续关注股市表现 股指期货方面，昨日盘面单边下行，全A指数下跌1.48%，强势科技方 向出现全面补跌，市场量能逼近3万亿。期货层面，持仓量大幅抬升， 显示对冲避险情绪有所强化，但与此同时，周一贴水扩大的情况得到改 善，基差全面收窄，目前暂未出现非常恐慌的交易情绪。展望后市，近期 市场观点开始走向分歧，在全A指数换手率升至相对高位之后，有部分资 金担心流动性的可持续性问题，故不排除资金进行调仓换股的可能性， 由双创进入哑铃结构进行阶段性防御，故配置上建议红利+IM多单应对当 下行情。 股指期权方面，昨日权益市场震荡下探，沪指收跌0.45%。期权方 面，受到行情走弱影响，各个品种成交额大幅提升33.71%，持仓量PCR指 标回落5.56%，当月合约隐含波动率整体走强，且隐波的日内波动幅度较 大。上述指标变化显示，期权市场再现对冲避险需求。昨天推测买看涨期 权离场后，今明两日可适当少量买入看跌期权防御为主。期权端可适当止 盈止损，交易层面建 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - On September 2, spot gold broke through the $3500 mark, reaching $3508 per ounce, a record high, and silver prices soared to a 14 - year high of $40.76 per ounce. The below - expected US ISM manufacturing PMI on Tuesday night supported the gold price [2]. - In August, the US manufacturing remained in the contraction zone, with a slightly slower contraction. New orders rebounded, indicating marginal improvement in demand, but output and employment declined, and order backlogs decreased, showing weak production motivation. Supply - side delivery slowed slightly, inventories were low, and future restocking might be triggered. Prices continued to rise, mainly driven by steel, aluminum, and tariffs. The overall situation was "initial demand recovery, weak production and employment, and rising cost pressure", and the manufacturing recovery was still restricted by high costs and uncertainties [2]. - The core market contradictions in the future will be the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and political intervention risks. Technically, the next target for gold is $3900 - $4000, and silver may challenge the historical high of $49 - $50. The weekly range for London gold is [3350, 3600], and for London silver is [38, 42] [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - China and Russia's leaders held talks, and China is willing to strengthen high - level exchanges with Russia, support each other's development, and coordinate positions on core issues to promote greater development of bilateral relations [1]. - Turkish President Erdogan discussed ways to end the Ukraine war with Russian President Putin and had a phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky, but both sides are "not ready" for a leaders' meeting [1]. - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent believes the Supreme Court will support Trump's use of the 1977 emergency powers act to impose comprehensive tariffs on most trading partners, and the US government has a backup plan if the Supreme Court does not support it [1]. Price Logic - The below - expected US ISM manufacturing PMI supported the gold price. The US manufacturing in August was in contraction with a slightly slower pace. Demand showed marginal improvement, but production and employment were weak, and cost pressure was rising. The manufacturing recovery was restricted by high costs and uncertainties [2]. - The core market contradictions are the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and political intervention risks. Technically, gold's next target is $3900 - $4000, and silver may challenge $49 - $50. The weekly ranges for London gold and silver are [3350, 3600] and [38, 42] respectively [2]. Market Indexes - On September 2, 2025, the commodity index was 2214.36 (+0.10%), the commodity 20 index was 2472.40 (+0.25%), and the industrial products index was 2227.52 (+0.01%) [42]. - The precious metals index on September 2, 2025, was 2831.72, with a daily increase of 0.48%, a 5 - day increase of 3.76%, a 1 - month increase of 4.44%, and a year - to - date increase of 27.99% [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating, with a high probability of continuing to strengthen in the medium - term [5] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating weakly [7] - **Pigs**: Oscillating at a low level [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating strongly in the short - term [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating following natural rubber [12] - **Cotton**: Oscillating strongly in the short - term, with potential downward pressure after new cotton is listed in large quantities [12] - **Sugar**: Oscillating, with long - term downward drive [14] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [16] - **Logs**: Oscillating weakly [18] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including their current market conditions, influencing factors, and future price trends. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, weather, trade relations, and policies to make short - term and medium - term forecasts for each product. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook - **Oils and Fats**: Short - term adjustment may be needed, with attention to the effectiveness of technical support below. Medium - term, it is likely to continue strengthening due to factors such as increased overseas biodiesel demand, potential reduction in US soybean yield, limited import of Canadian rapeseeds, and the approaching palm oil production reduction season [5] - **Protein Meal**: The market continues to oscillate. International soybean prices are affected by weather and trade relations, while domestic prices are influenced by supply and demand and trade relations [6][7] - **Corn/Starch**: Traders are pre - stocking, so the sentiment should not be overly pessimistic. Short - term, it is recommended to stop losses on previous short positions. Long - term, there is a low - absorption idea for far - month contracts [7][8] - **Pigs**: Supply is expected to be abundant, and the market is oscillating at a low level. Short - term, group farms' slaughter has shrunk at the end of the month, but overall supply is still sufficient. Medium - term, the number of piglets born from January to July indicates an increasing trend in pig slaughter in the second half of the year [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, supported by seasonal factors, potential reduction in short - term ship arrivals, and stable demand [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market follows natural rubber and oscillates. Short - term, butadiene prices may rise slightly, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly [12] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton has significantly reduced its positions, and cotton prices have fallen within the range. Short - term, it is expected to oscillate strongly, but there is resistance to upward movement. After new cotton is listed in large quantities, prices may face downward pressure [12] - **Sugar**: There is a downward drive, but the short - term downward space is limited. New - season supply is expected to be abundant, so prices may decline in the long - term [14] - **Pulp**: After hitting a new low, it has continued to rebound. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [15] - **Logs**: Supply - demand pressure is not significant, and logs are operating within a range. Consider trying to go long on far - month contracts at low prices within the range [18] 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Oils and Fats**: Trade relations, biodiesel demand, crude oil prices, and overseas macro - environment [5] - **Protein Meal**: US soybean weather, Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations, and downstream demand [7] - **Corn/Starch**: Weather, policies, wheat substitution, and geopolitical factors [8] - **Pigs**: Breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Macro - environment, weather [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Crude oil price fluctuations [12] - **Cotton**: Macro - environment, demand, and new cotton acquisition price expectations [12] - **Sugar**: Weather in domestic main producing areas, Brazilian port logistics, weather in the Northern Hemisphere, and macro - economy [14] - **Pulp**: US dollar - denominated quotes, macro - economic expectations [17] - **Logs**: Real estate demand, spot liquidity, international trade relations, and capital factors [20] 3.3 Specific Data - **Oils and Fats**: ITS data shows that Malaysian palm oil exports in August increased by 10.2% month - on - month, and SPPOMA data shows that the production from August 1 - 25 decreased by 1.21% month - on - month [5] - **Protein Meal**: On September 1, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes were: US Gulf soybeans at 235 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel or 2.08% week - on - week; US West soybeans at 175 cents/bushel, unchanged week - on - week; South American soybeans at 275 cents/bushel, up 6 cents/bushel or 2.23% week - on - week [6] - **Corn/Starch**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the domestic average corn price is 2352 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract is 2191 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [7] - **Pigs**: On September 1, the price of live pigs (external ternary) in Henan was 14.17 yuan/kg, unchanged; the closing price of live pig futures (active contract) was 13625 yuan/ton, up 0.52% [8] - **Cotton**: As of September 1, the number of registered warrants in the 24/25 season was 6320. Zhengzhou cotton 09 closed at 13595 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan/ton; Zhengzhou cotton 01 closed at 14025 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan/ton [12] - **Sugar**: As of September 1, the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5623 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton; the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5609 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [14] - **Pulp**: According to Zhuochuang Information, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5090 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; Pacific pulp was 5450 yuan/ton, unchanged; Silver Star pulp was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shandong Goldfish pulp was 4190 yuan/ton, unchanged [15] - **Logs**: The new foreign CFR quotes are FFP at 115 US dollars and PFP at 118 US dollars, with FFP down 2 US dollars [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual outlooks for each energy and chemical product, with most being advised to be treated with a "sideways" approach, suggesting an overall "sideways" view for the oil - chemical industry [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall domestic energy and chemical products continue to trade sideways. Some products like asphalt are strong, while others such as styrene are facing significant inventory pressure and are declining [2][3]. - The supply pressure in the crude oil market persists, and the price is expected to trade sideways with a downward bias, influenced by geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production policies [4][9]. - For each product, specific factors such as inventory levels, production, demand, and geopolitical events are driving their price movements and market trends [4]. 3. Summary by Product Category Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure continues, and the price is expected to trade sideways with a downward bias. Geopolitical disturbances should be closely monitored [4][9]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ production increases lead to a hard - to - reverse oversupply expectation. US production shows resilience, and future crude oil inventories face pressure from the peak - to - decline of refinery operations and OPEC+ accelerated production increases. Geopolitical events like Houthi attacks on oil tankers support the geopolitical premium [9]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical premium drives the asphalt futures price to break through the 3500 pressure level [10]. - **Main Logic**: Concerns over potential US sanctions on Venezuela and the interruption of asphalt raw material supply drive up the futures price. However, the narrowing supply - demand gap and weak demand suggest that the high valuation of asphalt may not be sustainable [10]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Follows the upward movement of crude oil [4]. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical events in the Middle East and between the US and Venezuela increase the geopolitical premium. However, factors such as increased inventory and weak demand limit its upward potential [11]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Follows the sideways movement of crude oil [4]. - **Main Logic**: Faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel substitution. It has a low valuation and is expected to move with crude oil [12]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: There is still an expectation of shutdowns in the far - month contracts, and the futures price rebounds [4]. - **Main Logic**: The market experiences a decline followed by a rebound. Supply recovery and weak demand lead to the initial decline, while far - month shutdown expectations drive the rebound. The downstream olefin fundamentals provide limited support [28]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The market is currently weak but is expected to strengthen after the Indian tender is finalized [4]. - **Main Logic**: The market is waiting for the Indian tender. Once it is finalized, factors such as supply reduction, expected increase in autumn demand, and potential export opportunities are expected to drive the price up [29]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: The arrival volume in early September is low, and there is still room for a decline in port inventory [4]. - **Main Logic**: With less volume arriving at ports in early September, port inventory continues to decline. Cost support is weak, but low inventory provides some price support [20][21]. PX - **Viewpoint**: The delayed restart of the plant has limited positive effects. Macroeconomic and cost factors are the main disturbances [4]. - **Main Logic**: Cost support is insufficient, and the supply pressure is expected to increase in the medium - to - long - term due to plant restarts and new capacity. Downstream demand provides limited support [14]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: The delayed restart of the plant and mediocre demand result in limited price drivers [4]. - **Main Logic**: Cost support is weak, and the delayed restart of the plant has limited positive effects. The overall supply - demand pattern is okay, and the price is expected to follow cost and macro - sentiment fluctuations [15]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: There is an expectation of plant restart, and the demand needs further verification [4]. - **Main Logic**: The price follows the movement of upstream costs. Supply remains high, and some plants are planning to restart. Downstream demand is average, and the sustainability of demand needs to be observed [22][23]. Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: The production cut in September remains at 20% and can be expanded to 30% if necessary [4]. - **Main Logic**: The cost is fluctuating, and the supply - side plant maintenance supports the market. However, downstream demand is weak, and the price mainly follows cost fluctuations [23][26]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The support from maintenance is limited, and it trades sideways with a downward bias [4]. - **Main Logic**: News of plant overhauls has limited real impact. Supply continues to increase, and although there is some improvement in demand, the overall outlook is still weak [32][33]. Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: Temporarily follows the movement of PP [4]. - **Main Logic**: External supply is restricted, and downstream demand is good. The price mainly follows PP in the short term, and the PP - PL processing fee is a key focus [33]. Plastic - **Viewpoint**: Attention should be paid to the peak - season demand, and it trades sideways in the short term [4]. - **Main Logic**: News of plant overhauls has limited real impact. The price is affected by oil price fluctuations, macro - sentiment, and supply - demand factors. It is necessary to monitor downstream demand [30][31]. Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The port will resume inventory accumulation, and the price trades sideways with a downward bias [4]. - **Main Logic**: More naphtha buyers are seeking October shipments, and the supply of naphtha is expected to tighten. However, the increase in pure benzene imports and weak downstream demand suggest a potential supply - surplus situation [16][19]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The inventory pressure is prominent, and the price continues to decline [4]. - **Main Logic**: The decline is due to the weakening of anti - over - competition sentiment and the poor fundamentals. High inventory levels and weak demand in the downstream market contribute to the price drop [19][20]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Weak market conditions suppress the price, and it trades weakly [4]. - **Main Logic**: Macro - policies have not been implemented, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Factors such as reduced production in September, weak demand, and potential anti - dumping measures affect the price [36]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price rebound slows down, and the market is on the sidelines for now [4]. - **Main Logic**: Macro - policies have not been implemented, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. However, factors such as the expected increase in alumina production in the future and the current slowdown in the spot price rebound lead to a wait - and - see attitude [36][37]. 4. Product Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spread**: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different time periods of each product [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of each product show the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the inventory situation [39]. - **Inter - Product Spread**: The inter - product spread data reflect the relative price relationships between different products, which can be used for arbitrage analysis and market trend judgment [41]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report also provides basis and spread data for specific products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., which help in analyzing the price relationships and market trends of these products [42][55][67].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Oscillating [6] - Alumina: Oscillating weakly [7] - Aluminum: Oscillating [10] - Aluminum Alloy: Oscillating at a high level [11] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [13] - Lead: Oscillating [14] - Nickel: Oscillating strongly [16] - Stainless Steel: Oscillating [22] - Tin: Oscillating [23] 2. Core Views of the Report - The weak US dollar and the fermentation of reverse invoicing issues have pushed non - ferrous metals back to the upper edge of the recent range. In the short - to - medium term, the weak US dollar and supply disturbances support prices, while weak terminal demand expectations limit the upside. In the long term, potential incremental stimulus policies in China and supply disturbances in copper, aluminum, and tin support non - ferrous metal prices [1]. - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different price trends and influencing factors. For example, copper prices are supported by macro factors and supply disturbances; alumina prices are under pressure due to over - supply; aluminum prices are affected by supply, demand, and inventory; and so on [6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Information Analysis: The Fed's potential September rate - cut and the resilience of the US economy boost copper prices. In August, China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly year - on - year. The spot price showed a premium, and the inventory increased. The processing fees of copper ore and blister copper are low, and the raw material supply is tight. The cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling have increased, and some smelters may reduce production [6]. - Main Logic: Macro factors and supply disturbances support copper prices. The downstream demand was in the off - season, and the inventory accumulation was not obvious. Low inventory supports copper prices in the short term [6]. - Outlook: Copper supply constraints remain, and the inventory is low. However, the US copper tariff is not conducive to the Shanghai copper price. Copper is expected to oscillate [7]. Alumina - Information Analysis: On September 1, the spot price of alumina in most regions was stable, while that in Xinjiang decreased. Some alumina enterprises in Shanxi reduced production due to ore shortages. The winning bid price of a tender in Xinjiang decreased, and the railway freight in Shandong changed. The alumina warehouse receipts increased [7][8]. - Main Logic: The high - profit margin of smelters has shrunk, but the raw materials are relatively abundant. The operating capacity is at a high level, and the supply is in excess. The warehouse receipts and inbound volume have increased, and the price is expected to be under pressure. However, short - term supply capacity fluctuations and medium - to - long - term mine disturbances need attention [8]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Consider short - selling on rallies and pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities [10]. Aluminum - Information Analysis: On September 1, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. The warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum on the SHFE decreased. An Indonesian Chinese - funded electrolytic aluminum enterprise plans to put into production. The performance of some listed aluminum companies was released [10][11]. - Main Logic: The short - term US rate - cut expectation increases, and the US dollar is weak. The supply capacity is increasing, and the demand is expected to improve, but the terminal consumption is not strong. The inventory is accumulating, and the spot discount is widening. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate [11]. - Outlook: Observe the short - term consumption and inventory accumulation. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [11]. Aluminum Alloy - Information Analysis: On September 1, the price of Baotai ADC12 was stable, and the price difference between Baotai ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed. The SHFE adjusted the margin and price limit of cast aluminum alloy futures. The performance of some listed companies was released [11][12]. - Main Logic: The cost is supported by scrap aluminum. The supply decreased during the off - season, and some recycling plants reduced production due to policy changes. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [12][13]. - Outlook: In the short term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are oscillating at a low level. There is room for an increase in the future, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [13]. Zinc - Information Analysis: On September 1, the spot price of zinc showed a discount. The inventory of zinc ingots increased. A smelter in Guangxi plans to stop production for maintenance due to raw material supply interruption [13]. - Main Logic: The macro environment is slightly negative. The short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and the smelter's profitability is good. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. The zinc price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and decline in the medium - to - long term [14]. - Outlook: In September, the zinc ingot production will remain high, and the demand recovery is limited. The inventory may continue to accumulate. The zinc price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. Lead - Information Analysis: On September 1, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries and the price difference between primary and secondary lead were stable. The spot price of lead ingots was stable, and the warehouse receipts decreased. The traditional peak season of the lead - acid battery market was average, and the transportation was restricted in some regions, affecting the inventory [14][15]. - Main Logic: The spot discount and the price difference between primary and secondary lead are stable. The supply of lead decreased slightly, and the demand is in the transition period between the off - season and peak season. The demand for lead ingots is stable [15][16]. - Outlook: The macro environment is positive. The supply may tighten slightly this week, and the demand is stable. However, the release of accumulated lead ingots after the end of transportation restrictions may put pressure on the price. The lead price is expected to oscillate [16]. Nickel - Information Analysis: On September 1, the LME nickel inventory increased, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Some nickel - related projects and policy changes were reported, such as a new nickel and copper refinery in Tanzania and the change of RKAB approval in Indonesia [16][17][18]. - Main Logic: The market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The ore supply may be loose after the rainy season. The production of intermediate products has recovered, and the nickel salt price has declined slightly. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to oscillate. Use a short - term trading strategy [21]. - Outlook: The equity market is strong, and the expected RKAB approval in Indonesia in mid - September will make the nickel price oscillate strongly in the short term. Take a wait - and - see attitude in the long term [21]. Stainless Steel - Information Analysis: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The spot price showed a premium. The production and logistics in the nickel industry chain in Indonesia were not affected by the demonstrations [22]. - Main Logic: The prices of nickel iron and chromium iron are stable. The stainless steel production increased in August. Pay attention to the demand during the peak season. The inventory decreased slightly, and the structural over - supply pressure has eased [22]. - Outlook: Be wary of the possible expansion of production cuts by steel mills. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to inventory and cost changes [22]. Tin - Information Analysis: On September 1, the LME tin warehouse receipts increased, and the SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased. The spot price of tin decreased. The supply of tin ore is tight [23]. - Main Logic: The resumption of production in Wa State does not change the tight supply of tin ore in China. The export of refined tin in Indonesia decreased, and the production and export in Africa are unstable. The supply is tight, supporting the tin price. The terminal demand has weakened, and the inventory reduction is difficult [23]. - Outlook: The tin price is supported by the tight supply of ore. It is expected to oscillate, and the volatility may increase in August [23].