1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthened. There is a higher probability of the implementation of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of the supply - side "anti - involution" policy on assets. Overseas, focus on the progress of tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Be vigilant against volatility spikes and pay attention to non - US dollar assets. Maintain a strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights Overseas Macro - The "reciprocal tariff" rates of the US on most economies have been released, with most rates (except for Japan and Malaysia) being lowered, reducing short - term tariff uncertainties. In May, the US wholesale sales monthly rate was - 0.3% (expected 0.2%, previous value revised from 0.1% to 0%), and the wholesale inventory monthly rate final value was - 0.3% (expected - 0.3%, previous value - 0.3%). In June, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed was 3.0% (expected 3.1%, previous value 3.2%). In June, the new non - farm employment in the US was better than expected, but there were concerns in the employment market. On July 4th, the "Big and Beautiful" Act was implemented, which may have limited long - term boost to the US economy and will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [7]. Domestic Macro - In June, China's export volume rebounded slightly year - on - year to 5.8%, CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year. The improvement in exports to the US was the main boost, and the "anti - involution" policy had a significant impact on some domestic - demand - oriented commodities. On July 1st, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission proposed to "regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with regulations and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity" [7]. Asset Views - Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthened. Pay attention to the impact of the supply - side "anti - involution" on assets. Overseas, focus on tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Be vigilant against volatility spikes and pay attention to non - US dollar assets. Maintain a strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights Macro - Domestically, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end will implement established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [8]. Finance - The sentiment in the stock market rebounds, and the bond market maintains a volatile trend. Stock index futures continue a mild upward trend; stock index options remain cautious; the sentiment in the bond market for treasury bond futures weakens [8]. Precious Metals - The risk preference rises, and precious metals such as gold and silver continue to adjust [8]. Shipping - The sentiment in the shipping market falls. For the container shipping route to Europe, focus on the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases [8]. Black Building Materials - Iron ore performs strongly, supporting the price center of the sector. Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, and others are in a volatile state, with different influencing factors for each [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - There is a game between reciprocal tariff negotiations and domestic policy stimulus expectations. Most non - ferrous metal varieties are in a volatile state, with some showing a downward trend, such as zinc and nickel [8]. Energy and Chemicals - OPEC+ over - expected production increase will drag down the energy and chemical sector to fluctuate weakly. Different chemical products have different short - term trends, such as some showing volatile rises, some showing volatile falls, and some remaining volatile [10]. Agriculture - In the agricultural sector, the prices of some products such as pigs are under pressure, and different agricultural products such as grains, oils, and livestock are in a volatile state, affected by various factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is to approach it with a mindset of weakening oscillations. Specific varieties have different ratings: crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, PTA, and urea are rated as "weakening oscillations"; PX, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle - chip, PP, plastic, PVC, and methanol are rated as "oscillations"; pure benzene is rated as "oscillating strongly"; and caustic soda is rated as "oscillating strongly" [3][7][8][11][13][14][17][19][22][24][26][27][28][30][31] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international oil price continues to oscillate and consolidate. The reduction in crude oil production in the Iraqi region provides some support, but the increase in refined oil inventories in the United States and the expected inventory build - up in the future may lead to weakening oscillations in oil prices if geopolitical disturbances subside. For most energy and chemical products, factors such as supply and demand, cost, and market sentiment lead to an overall trend of weakening oscillations or oscillations. For example, asphalt prices are overvalued, high - sulfur fuel oil prices face downward pressure, and the cost - end support for LPG weakens [1][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical disturbances should be monitored. With the expected inventory build - up in the future, if geopolitical disturbances weaken, oil prices will gradually face pressure and are expected to weaken and oscillate [7] - **LPG**: The cost - end support weakens, the fundamental situation of supply - demand remains loose, and the PG futures may oscillate weakly [3][11] - **Asphalt**: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely overvalued stage, and the asphalt price difference is expected to decline as the warehouse receipts increase [8] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices face significant downward pressure, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and the price is expected to weaken and oscillate [8][9][11] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate and weaken, facing factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [11] - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol production areas show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is relatively stable. The futures price oscillates in the short term [24][26] - **Urea**: The hype sentiment slows down, and the futures may return to the fundamentals. In the short term, it may face pressure to operate [24] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly start - up rate declines, and the downstream start - up rate also decreases. It continues to oscillate and consolidate [17][18] - **PX**: There is insufficient driving force, and it oscillates and consolidates [13] - **PTA**: The driving force is not obvious, and it consolidates. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13] - **Short - Fiber**: The basis weakens, and there are no major contradictions in the industrial chain. The processing fee will remain stable, and the absolute value will follow the raw materials to fluctuate [19][21] - **Bottle - Chip**: Production cuts support the processing fee, and the absolute value follows the raw materials to fluctuate [22] - **PP**: The maintenance rate slightly increases, and it oscillates [28] - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate slightly increases, and it oscillates [27] - **Pure Benzene**: The near - end long positions in styrene leave the market, and pure benzene follows to decline. In the medium term, the pattern from July to August is acceptable [14] - **Styrene**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the price drops [16][17] - **PVC**: Market sentiment warms up again, and it mainly oscillates. The fundamental pressure still exists [30] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price reaches the peak, and it oscillates and operates. The 09 futures contract oscillates, facing downward pressure and support [31] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.96 with a change of - 0.01, and the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is 38 with a change of - 10 [33] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the basis of asphalt is 192 with a change of 0, and the warehouse receipt is 82300 [34] - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also corresponding values and changes in the inter - variety spread. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 298 with a change of - 4 [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the weekly data of silicon manganese and silicon iron alloys on July 18, 2025, including daily average output, weekly operating rate, weekly apparent demand, and sample enterprise inventory, and compares them with the data on July 11, 2025 [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Silicon Manganese - **Daily Average Output**: The daily average output on July 18, 2025, was 26,120 tons/day, an increase of 80 tons/day compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Weekly Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate on July 18, 2025, was 40.53%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Weekly Apparent Demand**: The weekly apparent demand on July 18, 2025, was 123,381 tons, a decrease of 1,547 tons compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Sample Enterprise Inventory**: The sample enterprise inventory on July 18, 2025, was 216,300 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. Silicon Iron - **Daily Average Output**: The daily average output on July 18, 2025, was 14,285 tons/day, an increase of 175 tons/day compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Weekly Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate on July 18, 2025, was 32.45%, an increase of 1.25 percentage points compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Weekly Apparent Demand**: The weekly apparent demand on July 18, 2025, was 20,013.7 tons, a decrease of 153.6 tons compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Sample Enterprise Inventory**: The sample enterprise inventory on July 18, 2025, was 63,540 tons, a decrease of 6,700 tons compared to July 11, 2025 [2].

T 限公司 焦煤周度数据 2025年07月18日 | 关单 | 陶存辉 | 薛原 | 冉宇蒙 钟宏 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号 F03122523 | 从业资格号 F03099559 | 从业资格号 F03100815 | 从业资格号 F03144159 | 从业资格号 F03118246 | | 投资咨询号 Z0019832 | 投资咨询号 Z0020955 | 投资咨询号 Z0021807 | 投资咨询号 Z0022199 | 投资咨询号 Z0022727 | | 单位:万吨 | 区域 | 2025-07-16 | 2025-07-09 | 环比 | | 煤矿原煤库存 | 山西 | 66. 58 | 75. 79 | -9.21 | | | 河北 | 54. 69 | 52. 69 | 2 | | | 山东 | 91.63 | 113. 97 | -22. 34 | | | 专国 | 236. 4 | 268. 15 | -31. 75 | | 单位:万吨 | 区域 | 2025-07-16 | 2025-07-09 | 环比 | | 煤矿精煤库 ...

中信期货有限公司 CITIC Futures Company Limited 双焦周度数据 2025年07月18日 研究员: | 会联 | 陶存辉 | 薛原 | 冉宇蒙 | 钟宏 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号 F03122523 | 从业资格号 F03099559 | 从业资格号 F03100815 | 从业资格号 F03144159 | 从业资格号 F03118246 | | | 投资咨询号 Z0019832 | 投资咨询号 Z0020955 | 投资咨询号 Z0021807 | 投资咨询号 Z0022199 | 投资咨询号 Z0022727 | | | 图表 2: 焦炭周度数据 | | | | | | | 分类 | 指标 | 2025-07-11 | 2025-07-18 | | 环比 | | 247家钢厂 | 日均铁水产量 | 239. 81 | 242. 44 | | 2. 63 | | | 产量 | 47. 19 | 64. 21 | | -0. 1 | | | 库存 | 637.8 | 638.99 | 1. 19 | | | ...

玻璃供需周报 2025年07月18日 冉宇蒙 从业资格号:F03144159 投资咨询号: Z0022199 | | 华北企业库存:万 | 华东企业库存:万 | 华中企业库存:万 | 华南企业库存:万 | 西南企业库存:万 | 东北企业库存:万 | 西北企业库存:万 | 全国企业库存:万 | 浮法玻璃日熔:万 | 周度产量:万重箱 | 周度表需 : 万重箱 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 重組 | 重組 | 重組 | 重組 | 重組 | 重組 | 重組 | 童箱 | 座 | | | | 2025-07-18 | 865. 68 | 1406. 5 | 738.7 | 1045 | 1218.7 | 771.3 | 448 | 6493.9 | 15. 84 | 2217. 95 | 2434. 3 | | 2025-07-11 | 872. 48 | 1473.6 | 803 | 1049 | 1254 | 789. 15 | 469 | 6710.2 | 15. 84 | 2214 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash Supply and Demand Weekly Report [36] - Researchers: Hui Dian, Tao Cunhui, Ran Yumeng, Zhong Hong, Xue Yuan [1] Group 2: Inventory Data - On July 18, 2025, the national enterprise inventory was 190.56 million tons, with 78.3 million tons of light soda ash and 112.26 million tons of heavy soda ash [2] - From June 13 to July 18, 2025, the inventory in different regions and the overall national inventory showed certain fluctuations [2] Group 3: Production and Consumption Data - On July 18, 2025, the total production was 73.32 million tons, with 31.85 million tons of light soda ash and 41.47 million tons of heavy soda ash [2] - From June 27 to July 18, 2025, the production and apparent consumption of soda ash, light soda ash, and heavy soda ash showed different trends [2] Group 4: Daily Melting Data - On July 18, 2025, the total daily melting was 24.75 million tons, including 15.84 million tons of float glass and 8.91 million tons of photovoltaic glass [2] - From June 27 to July 18, 2025, the daily melting of float glass and photovoltaic glass also changed [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests an overall view of "oscillating weakly" for the energy and chemical industry, with specific varieties having different trends such as oscillation, oscillation weakly, oscillation strongly, etc. [1][3][4] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices have fallen for three consecutive days, and the market is closely watching whether US inventories will accumulate effectively. The supply pressure of the chemical industry is increasing, and the demand has shown weakness since June, with an increasing possibility of the industry gradually weakening. [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Trends of Crude Oil and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. In the context of a relatively certain inventory accumulation expectation, oil prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly after the weakening of geopolitical disturbances. [8] - **Chemicals**: Supply has substantially increased, while demand has shown weakness since June. The probability of the chemical industry gradually weakening is increasing. For example, the supply pressure of olefins will suppress industrial profits, and the polyester chain may see a decline in direct demand for raw materials. [2] 2. Analysis of Each Variety - **LPG**: The support from the cost side is weakening, the fundamental pattern of looseness remains unchanged, and the PG futures may oscillate weakly. [3][13] - **Asphalt**: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely over - estimated stage. [8][9] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is relatively large. [3][9][10] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate and weaken. [3][13] - **Methanol**: The domestic operating load is low, and methanol oscillates. [3][22][23] - **Urea**: The hype sentiment has slowed down, and the futures may return to the fundamentals, with short - term pressure on urea. [3][23][24] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The resumption of device production is less than expected, and ethylene glycol will continue the low - inventory pattern. [3][17][18] - **PX**: The US sanctions against Russia are less than expected, and PX oscillates and consolidates. [15] - **PTA**: The driving force is not obvious, and PTA consolidates. [15] - **Short - Fiber**: It fluctuates with raw materials, and the basis remains stable. [18][20] - **Bottle Chip**: The basis weakens slightly, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials. [20][21] - **PP**: As oil prices fall, PP oscillates. [3][26] - **Plastic**: As oil prices decline, plastic oscillates and weakens. [3][25] - **Pure Benzene**: Due to the lack of confidence of styrene bulls and the decline of crude oil, pure benzene falls back. [15] - **Styrene**: The risk of cornering declines, and styrene falls. [15][16][17] - **PVC**: The sentiment cools down in stages, and PVC runs weakly. [3][28] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has reached the peak, and caustic soda oscillates. [3][28][29] 3. Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.9 with a change of - 0.03, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is 48 with a change of 22. [30] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the basis of asphalt is 192 with a change of - 1, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82300. [31] - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also specific values and changes for inter - variety spreads. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 294 with a change of 47. [32] - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: It involves the monitoring of basis and spreads of various chemical varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented in the text. [33][45][57]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On July 16, financial futures showed mixed performance; commodity futures had narrowed fluctuations, with agricultural product futures rising and energy & chemical futures falling [2][11][14]. - The top three gainers were poly-silicon, SCFIS(Europe), and cotton, while the top three decliners were sodium hydroxide, live hog, and ferrosilicon [12][13][14]. - The European line is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias, iron ore prices are likely to be prone to rise rather than fall before market sentiment turns weak, and glass prices are expected to maintain a volatile view [25][30][36]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On July 16, financial futures had a mixed performance; commodity futures saw narrowed fluctuations, with agricultural product futures rising and energy and chemical futures falling [11][14]. - The top three gainers were poly-silicon (up 1.5% with a 2.8% month-on-month increase in positions), SCFIS(Europe) (up 1.4% with an 8.3% month-on-month increase in positions), and cotton (up 1.2% with a 4.0% month-on-month increase in positions) [12][14]. - The top three decliners were sodium hydroxide (down 2.1% with a 7.1% month-on-month increase in positions), live hog (down 1.9% with a 1.7% month-on-month increase in positions), and ferrosilicon (down 1.7% with a 0.6% month-on-month decrease in positions) [13][14]. 1.2 Daily Rise 1.2.1 SCFIS(Europe) - On July 16, SCFIS(Europe) increased by 1.4% to 1598.1 points [18][24]. - In June, export data remained resilient. China's exports in US dollars increased by 5.8% year-on-year, exports to the US fell by 16.1% with a significantly narrowed decline, and exports to the EU rose by 7.6% year-on-year [19][24]. - Spot freight rates remain resilient, shipping companies have high load rates, and there is no inflection point in spot freight rates yet. Shipping companies may announce price increases in August, and all contracts are performing relatively strongly [20][24][25]. 1.2.2 Iron Ore - On July 16, iron ore increased by 1.0% to 773 yuan/ton [28][30][31]. - Iron ore demand remains high, and fundamental bearish drivers are limited. Prices are expected to be prone to rise rather than fall before market sentiment turns weak, but short-term upward movement is limited, and prices will mainly fluctuate [28][30]. - Overseas mine shipments slightly decreased, port arrivals rebounded, steel enterprises' profits slightly improved, and molten iron output decreased but remained high year-on-year. Port inventory slightly decreased due to concentrated arrivals, and overall supply-demand contradictions are not prominent [29][30]. 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Glass - On July 16, glass decreased by 1.1% to 1070 yuan/ton [32][36]. - Actual demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong. In the short term, wait and see the pace and intensity of policy introduction. If policies exceed expectations, downstream expectations may improve and trigger a wave of stockpiling-driven increases. In the medium to long term, market-oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and prices will maintain a volatile view [32][36]. - Domestic macro urban renewal meetings have concluded with no obvious positive factors, off-season demand is falling, deep processing orders have decreased month-on-month, and raw sheet inventory days have rebounded month-on-month. There are still 2 production lines to produce glass, and daily output is on an upward trajectory [33][36]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On July 15, China and Australia signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Implementing and Reviewing the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement [38][39]. - The Symposium on Research and Consultation for Comprehensively Expanding Domestic Demand was held in Beijing on July 16 [38][39]. - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Iranian Foreign Minister in Tianjin on July 16 [39]. 2.2 Industry News - The Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong released the "2024 Survey on Asset and Wealth Management Activities". In 2024, the total value of assets under management soared by 13% year-on-year, and the net capital inflow surged by 81%. By the end of 2024, the total value of assets under management of Hong Kong's asset and wealth management business rose to 35.1 trillion yuan (4.53 trillion US dollars) [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - China is the primary global supplier of major home appliances, with nearly half of its production capacity exported overseas, mainly to fill the supply gaps in North America, Asia, and Europe. However, the export may be affected by demand pull - forward and price increases caused by tariffs. - In 2025, the subsidy effect of China's white goods may weaken in H2, and the stabilizing property market is expected to support domestic demand resilience. Export pressure will increase, and production scheduling will decline. The slowdown in the global production and sales growth of major appliances will suppress the demand for copper and EB [2][3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. China's Home Appliance Exports - China's home appliance exports are mainly to Asian, European, and North American countries. In 2024, the total export value of China's three major white goods was $50.9 billion, with a total volume of 219 million units. Half of China's domestic capacity serves global demand. Refrigerators, washing machines, and air - conditioners exported to Europe and North America account for 45%, 52%, and 37% respectively [9][10]. - The ratio of China's domestic sales, exports, and overseas production is 3:3:4. China fills about half of North America's supply - demand gap. China directly exports about 22 million units to the US, accounting for 10.5% of total exports. In 2024, imports from China accounted for nearly 50% of North America's supply - demand gap [12][14]. 2. Negative Impact of Tariffs - The US tariff policy has shifted from targeting China's production capacity to promoting the use of domestic materials. On June 12, the US imposed new duties on steel - derived appliances from June 23. Steel accounts for 15% of refrigerator costs and 35% of washer costs [19][20]. - Tariff - induced demand pull - forward and price hikes may suppress China's export demand. There is an inverse relationship between US appliance sales YoY growth and major appliance CPI. A 10% price increase in 2025 is expected to lead to only about 1% volume growth in North America [25][26]. 3. Copper & EB Demand May Face Pressures 3.1 China Appliance Market - The efficacy of China's white goods subsidy may weaken in H2. As of April 27, the national replacement sales reached 49.4 million units. After the initial RMB160 billion allocation, RMB140 billion will be gradually disbursed from July. Regional subsidy restrictions will be implemented, and the real - estate market is expected to support a 5% YoY growth in domestic sales in 2025 [30][31]. - China's appliance exports face H1 demand pull - forward and H2 order pressure. The restocking cycle is expected to end by August, and Q3 production will be pressured. China's full - year appliance export growth is estimated at 2% [32][33]. 3.2 Related Commodities Risks - In 2025, the global sales of three major white goods are estimated at 614 million units, a 3.62% YoY increase. China's total sales are projected at 444 million units, and the total output is 694 million units, a 4.45% YoY increase. - The consumption of steel, copper, aluminum, and EB in home appliance production is forecast at 262.6 million tons, 28.4 million tons, 22.9 million tons, and 7.6 million tons respectively. Since home - appliance use of EB accounts for 40% of total EB demand and EB supply is already in surplus, its demand pressure will be prominent in H2. Copper's supply - demand is in a tight balance, and a decline in appliance demand may increase the risk of surplus [35][36].