Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various market sectors including macro - indicators, commodities, and major trading products. It details price movements, supply - demand dynamics, and policy - related impacts on different assets, offering insights for investment decisions. Summary by Catalog 1. Macro Indicators - The Dow Jones Industrial Index decreased by 204.57 points (-0.456%), the Nasdaq Index dropped by 80.29 points (-0.379%), and the S&P 500 declined by 18.91 points (-0.296%) on July 30, 2025, compared to the previous day [2]. - SHIBOR overnight decreased by 0.101 to 1.37, a decline of 6.885% [2]. - The US dollar index decreased slightly by 0.017 (-0.017%), and the US dollar to RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged [2]. 2. Commodity Futures Metals - COMEX gold increased by 69.0 to 3383.00 (2.082%), COMEX silver rose by 0.055 to 38.39 (0.143%) [2]. - LME copper increased by 40.50 to 9803.00 (0.415%), while LME aluminum decreased by 25.0 to 2606.00 (-0.950%) [2]. - Domestic metals such as gold, silver, copper, etc., also showed varying degrees of price changes, with domestic gold rising by 2.88 to 774.32 (0.373%) [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil (NYMEX) increased by 2.27 to 69.25 (3.389%), ICE Brent crude rose by 2.17 to 71.77 (3.118%) [2]. - Domestic energy and chemical products like coking coal, coke, and natural rubber also had price increases, with coking coal rising by 43.0 to 1163.50 (3.838%) and coke increasing by 74.50 to 1707.50 (4.562%) [4]. Agricultural Products - CBOT soybeans decreased by 3.25 to 1008.25 (-0.321%), CBOT soybean meal dropped by 3.10 to 276.30 (-1.110%) [2]. - Domestic agricultural products such as yellow soybean No. 1 and yellow soybean No. 2 had small price increases, with yellow soybean No. 2 rising by 16.0 to 3661.00 (0.439%) [4]. 3. Macro News - From July 28th to 29th, China - US economic and trade talks will continue to extend the suspension of 24% of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days [6]. - The IMF raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% and for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 4.2% [6]. - China's social logistics volume in the first half of the year was 171.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [7]. 4. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties Agricultural Products - Peanut market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to be weakly bullish in the short term but still in a downward trend [11]. - The fat market is expected to be volatile, with trading light and basis stable [11]. - The sugar market is facing a situation of mixed long - and short - term factors, with prices suggested to be traded in the range of 5820 - 5870 yuan/ton [11]. Energy and Chemicals - Caustic soda prices in Shandong are expected to fluctuate slightly, and attention is recommended to the 9 - 11 spread [13]. - Urea prices are expected to be volatile, affected by the weakening of agricultural demand and overall market conditions [13]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices may be restricted by trade optimism but still face pressure if the 50% tariff is implemented, and are likely to be in high - level consolidation [15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be in high - level oscillations due to supply increases and consumption off - season [15]. Iron and Steel - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are supported by policy expectations and are trending strongly, with rebar closing at 3380 and hot - rolled coil at 3546 [16]. Option Finance - The current option market shows a pattern of differentiation between futures and spot, with investors advised to focus on inter - variety strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities and buy straddles to bet on volatility [18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the latest market data of various commodities, macro - economic indicators, and provides analysis and outlooks for different sectors including agriculture, energy chemicals, industrial metals, and option finance. It also mentions significant macro - events and their potential impacts on the market [2][6][11] - In the agricultural sector, different products have different trends. For example, peanuts may have a short - term strong - side shock but still face a downward trend, while sugar may break through the upper limit and open up an upward space [11] - In the energy and chemical sector, the prices of some products such as urea and soda ash are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to relevant policies and market supply - demand changes [12][14] - In the industrial metal sector, copper and aluminum prices are affected by trade policies and supply - demand relationships, and steel prices are expected to be weak and volatile [16][17] - In the option finance sector, the A - share market shows an upward trend, and investors should pay attention to market events and choose appropriate investment strategies [20][21] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Macro Indicators**: The Dow Jones Industrial Index decreased by 0.143%, the Nasdaq Index increased by 0.333%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.018%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.684%. The SHIBOR overnight rate decreased by 3.487%, and the US dollar index decreased by 0.026%. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate remained unchanged [2] - **International Futures Contracts**: COMEX gold decreased by 0.734%, LME copper decreased by 0.342%, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 2.935% [2] - **Domestic Futures Contracts**: Gold decreased by 0.509%, copper increased by 0.013%, and aluminum increased by 0.218%. In the chemical sector, coking coal decreased by 2.135%, and asphalt increased by 1.345%. In the agricultural products sector, yellow soybean No.1 decreased by 0.313%, and soybean oil increased by 0.369% [2][4] 3.2 Macro - economic News - Sino - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm to promote the development of Sino - US economic and trade relations [6] - The national child - rearing subsidy system implementation plan was officially announced, with a subsidy of 3600 yuan per child per year [6] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized rural development, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology deployed key work for the second half of the year, including promoting consumption and new industries [7] - Nine departments jointly issued a plan to rectify heavy - metal environmental safety hazards, and the paper industry issued an anti - involution initiative [7][8] - Trump mentioned possible tariff policies, and the international oil price rose due to the US - EU agreement and OPEC's production increase plan [8] 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with a narrow - range shock. It may have a short - term strong - side shock but still has a downward trend [11] - **Oils and Fats**: The market has light trading volume and stable basis, and is expected to be volatile in the short term [11] - **Sugar**: The price has broken through the upper limit of the original shock range. If it breaks through the 5900 mark, it may open up an upward space. However, it is necessary to beware of the callback risk caused by imported sugar [11] - **Corn**: The price is at the upper limit of the shock range. If it breaks through the pressure level, it can be slightly long. Pay attention to feed demand substitution and policy regulation risks [11] - **Cotton**: Internationally, US cotton is affected by weather. Domestically, new cotton has a good growth with expected high yields. The price is affected by Sino - US trade relations and consumption seasons [13] - **Pigs**: The supply exceeds demand, and the futures price maintains a shock after repairing the basis [13] - **Eggs**: The spot price has declined, and the futures price has a callback pressure. Short - term long positions should be avoided [13] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand in Shandong is stable, and the price is expected to be stable. Attention should be paid to the support at 2500 and the 9 - 11 spread [12] - **Urea**: The supply is in a phased reduction state, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to be volatile and weak, with support at 1680 - 1720 [12][14] 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Copper prices may be restricted by trade optimism but face pressure if the US imposes a 50% tariff. Aluminum prices are expected to be high - level volatile due to supply - demand and policy factors [16] - **Alumina**: The futures - spot arbitrage window is open, and the price has dropped significantly. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [16] - **Steel Products**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be weak and volatile. Rebar should pay attention to the support at 3050 - 3150, and hot - rolled coils should pay attention to the support at 3200 - 3300 [17] - **Ferroalloys**: The prices of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese are affected by coal raw materials and macro - policies. Investment should be cautious [19] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The double - coking products are under pressure and are expected to be weak. Pay attention to the support levels [19] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price has fallen below the previous low and may test the 70,000 mark. Short positions can be held, but beware of over - fall rebounds [19] 3.3.4 Option Finance - **Stock Index**: The A - share market shows an upward trend. The Shanghai Composite Index has reached 3600 points. Investors should pay attention to Sino - US economic and trade talks, the Politburo meeting, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [20][21] - **Options**: Trend investors should pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddles to bet on increased volatility [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, industrial products led by polysilicon and coking coal hit the daily limit one after another. Positive policy expectations also drove ferrosilicon and silicomanganese to hit the daily limit on Friday. However, the fundamentals changed little, with weak demand in the off - season and continuous increase in supply as enterprise profits improved. Currently, the main changes are in coal raw materials and macro - policy expectations. Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are following macro - expectations rather than industrial logic. Without demand improvement, continuous premium on the futures market is not conducive to long - term price rebounds. The industry is still advised to sell for hedging in a timely manner, and pay attention to the important meetings and policies at the end of the month [4][22] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferrosilicon 3.1.1 Supply - The profits of manufacturers have recovered, and the increase in the operating rate has led to a larger increase in production. The weekly output of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 102,300 tons (a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.6%), and the output in June 2025 was 414,100 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.13%) [4][6] 3.1.2 Demand - The pig iron output is at a high level with a slight seasonal decline. The consumption of ferrosilicon in five major steel products was 20,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%), and the weekly output of five major steel products was 866,900 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.97%) [4][9] 3.1.3 Inventory - Manufacturers have reduced inventory for two consecutive weeks. The enterprise inventory was 62,100 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 2.22% and a year - on - year increase of 5.38%), and the inventory days of steel mills in July were 14.25 days (a month - on - month decrease of 1.13 days and a year - on - year decrease of 0.98 days) [4][11] 3.1.4 Cost - The raw materials remained stable during the week. The prices of electricity, semi - coke small materials, anodes, iron oxide scale, silica, etc. did not change, but the profits in some regions increased significantly [12][14] 3.1.5 Basis - The basis of the ferrosilicon main contract in Ningxia quickly turned negative after the futures market hit the daily limit on Friday. The basis of the 09 contract was - 316 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 388 yuan/ton [4] 3.1.6 Strategy Recommendation - It is not advisable to chase the rise at high levels for speculation. The lower support is around 5,600. Manufacturers should choose the opportunity to sell for hedging [4] 3.2 Silicomanganese 3.2.1 Supply - The operating rates in both the northern and southern production areas have increased, and the increase in production has expanded. The weekly output of 121 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 186,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.5%), and the national silicomanganese output in June was 752,300 tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.1%) [22][24] 3.2.2 Demand - The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but the seasonal operating rate of steel mills has declined. The weekly consumption of silicomanganese was 123,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%), and the weekly output of five major steel products was 866,900 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.97%) [22][26] 3.2.3 Inventory - After production cuts, the inventory pressure of manufacturers has decreased. The manganese ore inventory increased last week, and oxidized ore has arrived at ports one after another. The enterprise sample inventory was 205,000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 5.22% and a year - on - year increase of 3.27%), and the inventory days of steel mills in July were 14.24 days (a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 days and a year - on - year decrease of 1.19 days) [22][29] 3.2.4 Cost - The quotation of manganese ore is firm, and the price of chemical coke has continued to rise. The prices of some manganese ores and chemical coke have increased, driving up the production cost of silicomanganese [33][36] 3.2.5 Basis - The futures discount has slightly narrowed. The basis of the 09 contract in Inner Mongolia was - 364 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 540 yuan/ton [22][31] 3.2.6 Strategy Recommendation - It is not advisable to chase the rise at high levels for speculation. The lower support is around 6,000. Manufacturers should choose the opportunity to sell for hedging [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg spot market has rebounded significantly but is approaching historical涨幅, showing hesitation. The futures market, though rising less, remains in a premium structure. Near the delivery month, the near - month 08 contract will face selling pressure. It is recommended to buy the far - month 09 contract on dips and look for reverse spread opportunities [3]. - The supply side has high - level capacity, with recent new replenishment slowing down, previous replenishment starting to lay eggs, and the elimination of backward capacity slowing. The demand side has improved, but the marginal support is weakening, requiring new tourism and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking demand [3]. - The cost of feed and comprehensive breeding has slightly declined. Egg prices have returned above the feed cost, and profits have improved [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Egg futures ended their rebound last week and returned to a weak oscillation. The large increase in spot prices needs to be digested, and the premium structure of the futures is being repaired. The market is expected to enter a short - term correction phase [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - Last week, new egg products maintained a high - level oscillation, with the upward momentum slowing down and starting to correct. The current spot rebound is mainly driven by the sales areas. After the bad weather, stocking will provide some support, but the increase is limited. The market has risen from 2.4 yuan/jin to 3.2 yuan/jin, close to the average seasonal increase, and further upward movement requires new event drivers [14]. 3.3 Supply Side - New capacity: From June to August 2025, the newly opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from February to April 2025, remaining at a high level and higher than the historical average [19]. - Elimination capacity: From June to August 2025, the normal elimination capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2023 to January 2024, with a relatively neutral available elimination volume [19]. - Laying - hen inventory: The inventory remains at a high level. New capacity is increasing steadily, new replenishment is slowing down, and the available elimination volume is decreasing steadily. The backward capacity is entering the active elimination stage, but the overall supply pressure still exists [19]. 3.4 Elimination End - The price of culled chickens is 5.76 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.24 yuan/jin. The elimination volume has decreased significantly, and the increase in price restricts the enthusiasm for elimination. The average elimination age is 502 days, remaining stable, and the overall age has returned to the normal range, with the "start - up rate" increasing steadily [22]. 3.5 Demand Side - Seasonally, it is the peak season for tourism and deep - processing demand. The inventory pressure in the production areas is not high, but high temperatures are reducing the laying rate and increasing costs. On the consumption side, after the rainy season, the tourism peak season has arrived, and overall demand has improved [24]. - Vegetable prices are rising due to high - temperature weather, supporting egg prices. Pork prices are oscillating at a high level, and the substitution effect on eggs is not obvious. Other meat prices have strengthened recently [26]. 3.6 Cost and Profit - Cost: Corn prices are running at a high level, and soybean meal prices are falling steadily. The overall cost is oscillating, with the current feed cost at about 2.5 yuan/jin and the comprehensive breeding cost at about 2.8 yuan/jin [29]. - Profit: Egg prices have recently returned above the feed cost, but the overall comprehensive breeding profit is still in the red, showing a seasonal bottom - bouncing [30]. 3.7 Capital and Market Sentiment - Capital is at a high level, and market competition has intensified. Bears believe that the high - level capacity, seasonal suppression, and the premium of the futures over the spot indicate further downward space. Bulls believe that the valuation is low and the seasonal trend is about to turn positive, making it a good time to buy. Currently, near the delivery month, the bears are winning [33]. 3.8 Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis is negative, and the overall futures is at a premium. The basis is currently running at a low level, waiting for the basis to strengthen during the peak season [35]. - Spread: In the future, as the cycle capacity declines, reverse spreads should be the main strategy [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1纯碱 - This week, the spot price of soda ash remained stable with a slight upward trend. With the resumption of production of previously shut - down plants, the supply of soda ash is expected to increase. The apparent demand for soda ash increased significantly on a week - on - week basis. The increase in futures prices stimulated the replenishment enthusiasm of downstream and mid - stream enterprises, leading to a reduction in enterprise inventories. The daily melting volume of float glass is expected to increase slightly, while the supply of photovoltaic glass is still expected to decrease. In the short term, the near - month contracts still face significant delivery pressure, and the expected macro - policy disturbances have intensified the risk of price fluctuations on the futures market. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for now and pay attention to the impact of macro - policies and the follow - up situation of downstream industries [5]. 2.2 Glass - This week, the spot price of float glass increased. With some previously ignited production lines starting to produce, the output is expected to rise. On the demand side, the purchasing enthusiasm of mid - and downstream enterprises increased, and most glass enterprises significantly reduced their inventories. Currently, the operating rate of LOW - E glass sample enterprises is 77.5%, showing a slight decline on a week - on - week basis and remaining at a low level compared to the same period last year. In the short term, the expected macro - policy disturbances are still strong. The weakening sentiment in the commodity market has led to a significant correction in glass futures prices, and the risk of price fluctuations on the futures market is high. It is recommended to wait and see for now and focus on the impact of macro - policies [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views Summary 3.1.1 Soda Ash - **Supply**: The plant operating rate was 83.02% (down 1.08% week - on - week), with the ammonia - soda process at 87.70% (unchanged week - on - week) and the combined - soda process at 72.26% (down 1.67% week - on - week). The weekly output was 72.38 million tons (down 0.94 million tons week - on - week), including 31.49 million tons of light soda ash (down 0.36 million tons) and 40.89 million tons of heavy soda ash (down 0.58 million tons) [5]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for soda ash was 76.48 million tons (up 7.38 million tons), with 35.57 million tons of light soda ash (up 2.89 million tons) and 40.91 million tons of heavy soda ash (up 4.49 million tons) [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soda ash enterprises was 186.46 million tons (down 1.96 million tons), including 74.22 million tons of light soda ash (down 1.49 million tons) and 112.24 million tons of heavy soda ash (down 0.47 million tons) [5]. 3.1.2 Glass - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of float glass was 159,000 tons, up 0.73% compared to July 17th. There were 296 glass production lines in the country, with 222 in operation and 74 shut down for cold repair. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 87,700 tons, down 1.52% week - on - week [6]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.896 million heavy cases, down 3.043 million heavy cases week - on - week (down 4.69% week - on - week and 7.74% year - on - year), equivalent to 26.6 days of inventory, 1.3 days less than the previous period [6]. - **Demand**: As of July 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, down 2.1% week - on - week and 7.0% year - on - year [6]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition 3.2.1 Market Review - Spot Prices - As of July 24, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China was 1,250 yuan/ton, and that of light soda ash was 1,150 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton. In North China, the market price of heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton, and that of light soda ash was 1,200 yuan/ton, also with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton. The price of the soda ash main contract was strong, with the basis in the Shahe area at - 10 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week). The glass futures price rebounded significantly, and the basis in the Shahe area was - 231 yuan/ton (down 195 yuan/ton week - on - week) [11][14]. 3.2.2 Market Review - Spreads - As of July 24, 2025, the 9 - 1 spread of soda ash was - 77 yuan/ton (down 31 yuan/ton week - on - week); the 9 - 1 spread of glass was - 95 yuan/ton (down 19 yuan/ton week - on - week); and the glass - soda ash arbitrage spread was 101 yuan/ton (down 32 yuan/ton week - on - week) [19]. 3.2.3 Fundamentals - Supply - The weekly output of soda ash was 72.38 million tons (down 0.94 million tons week - on - week), including 31.49 million tons of light soda ash (down 0.36 million tons) and 40.89 million tons of heavy soda ash (down 0.58 million tons). With the resumption of production of previously shut - down plants, the supply of soda ash is expected to increase. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash this week was 83.02%, down 1.08% week - on - week. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of the ammonia - soda process was 87.70% (unchanged week - on - week), and that of the combined - soda process was 72.26% (down 1.67% week - on - week) [25][34]. - There were 296 glass production lines in the country, with 222 in operation and 74 shut down for cold repair. The national daily output of float glass was 159,000 tons, up 0.73% compared to July 17th. This week, the national float glass output was 1.1081 million tons, up 0.09% week - on - week and down 7.06% year - on - year. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 87,700 tons, down 1.52% week - on - week and 22.83% year - on - year [45]. 3.2.4 Fundamentals - Inventory - As of July 24, 2025, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 186.46 million tons (down 1.96 million tons), including 74.22 million tons of light soda ash (down 1.49 million tons) and 112.24 million tons of heavy soda ash (down 0.47 million tons). The apparent demand for soda ash this week was 76.48 million tons, an increase of 7.38 million tons on a week - on - week basis. The apparent demand for light soda ash was 35.57 million tons, an increase of 2.89 million tons on a week - on - week basis, and the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 40.91 million tons, an increase of 4.49 million tons on a week - on - week basis [37][42]. - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.896 million heavy cases, down 3.043 million heavy cases week - on - week (down 4.69% week - on - week and 7.74% year - on - year), equivalent to 26.6 days of inventory, 1.3 days less than the previous period. As of July 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, down 2.1% week - on - week and 7.0% year - on - year [49]. 3.2.5 Fundamentals - Profitability - As of July 24, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash production in China was - 35 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton week - on - week; the theoretical profit of the combined - soda process (per double - ton) was 17.50 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton week - on - week [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term urea futures prices may fluctuate weakly. The domestic urea spot market price has been fluctuating weakly this week. With many recent plant overhauls, the supply is in a state of phased reduction. Although the inventory of urea enterprises continues to decline due to some goods being shipped to ports, the decline rate has narrowed due to the phased weakening of agricultural demand. The agricultural top - dressing demand is coming to an end, the enthusiasm for picking up autumn fertilizers is low, the finished product inventory pressure of compound fertilizers is large, and the start - up is still in a state of gradual recovery from a low level. However, there is an expected marginal improvement in autumn fertilizers and export demand provides strong bottom support for urea. The UR2509 contract should pay attention to the support around 1680 - 1720 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - long Views Summary - **Supply**: Many plants are under maintenance recently, resulting in a phased reduction in supply. The weekly urea output is 1354700 tons (-1.02%), among which the coal - based urea output is 1062300 tons (-1.35%), and the gas - based urea output is 292400 tons (+0.17%), with an average daily output of 194000 tons [5][21]. - **Demand**: The support from agricultural demand has weakened phasedly, but there are still expectations for autumn fertilizers and exports. The compound fertilizer enterprise start - up rate is 33.58% (+1.03%), and the finished product inventory is 742100 tons (a month - on - month increase of 6300 tons). The start - up of melamine is 65.20% (+0.96%), and downstream maintains rigid demand procurement [5][35]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises has decreased, but the decline rate has narrowed. The urea enterprise inventory is 858800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36700 tons. The port inventory is 543000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 2000 tons). The mainstream pre - collection days of urea enterprises are 5.94 days (a month - on - month decrease of 1.98%), and the number of days of orders to be delivered by enterprises has decreased slightly month - on - month [5][32]. - **Cost and Profit**: Coal prices are moderately strong, and urea profits have decreased month - on - month [5]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread is running weakly, and the change in the 09 basis is limited [5]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition - **Domestic Urea Market Price**: The domestic urea market price has been fluctuating upwards this week [7]. - **International Urea Price**: International urea prices have shown a mixed trend of rising and falling [11]. - **Supply**: Many plants are under maintenance recently, resulting in a phased reduction in supply. Some enterprises such as Hulunbuir Jinxin Chemical Co., Ltd. and Shanxi Jinmei Tianyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. have planned maintenance [17][25]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises has decreased, but the decline rate has narrowed. The port inventory has changed slightly [28][32]. - **Demand**: The support from agricultural demand has weakened phasedly, but there are still expectations for autumn fertilizers and exports. The start - up rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have increased slightly [34][35]. - **Raw Material End**: Coal prices have maintained an upward trend [37]. - **Profit**: Urea profits have decreased slightly month - on - month [43]. - **Spread Analysis**: The 9 - 1 spread is running weakly, and the change in the 09 basis is limited [46].

Report Information - Report Title: "Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Preferences, Copper and Aluminum Prices Remain High - Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report 2025.07.28" [1] - Author: Liu Peiyang [2] - Contact Information: Phone 0371 - 58620083, Email liupy_qh@ccnew.com, Professional Certificate No. F0290318, Trading Consultation No. Z0011155 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views Copper - **Main Logic**: Domestically, policy signals are being released, improving market sentiment; the US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, also boosting market sentiment. Although the supply in Shanghai has increased recently, the overall supply remains tight. The downstream consumption willingness is low due to high copper prices. The impact of tariffs on copper prices has been gradually digested, and prices are expected to remain bullish after stabilizing [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the Shanghai Copper 2509 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 81,000 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 77,000 yuan/ton [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Main Logic**: Domestically, policy signals are being released, improving market sentiment; the US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, also boosting market sentiment. Under the pressure of increased supply and the off - season of consumption, the inventory is expected to accumulate. However, the improvement of domestic macro - expectations will support aluminum prices, which are expected to remain high and fluctuate [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 21,000 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 20,200 yuan/ton [6]. Alumina - **Main Logic**: Domestically, policy signals are being released, improving market sentiment; the US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, also boosting market sentiment. As of July 24, the national alumina weekly operating rate increased by 0.45 percentage points to 81.19%. The current spot - futures arbitrage window is open, and the warehouse receipt inventory is expected to increase. With the bullish domestic macro - expectations and low warehouse receipts, the alumina futures price is expected to be strong [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the Alumina 2509 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 3,600 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 3,000 yuan/ton. A bullish approach is recommended [8]. Summary by Directory 01. Market Review Weekly Market Review - The cumulative weekly price changes from July 21 to July 25 were calculated for various metals including Shanghai Copper, International Copper, LME Copper, etc. [16] Weekly News Review - On July 21, the IAI reported that global primary aluminum production in June was 6.045 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [17]. - From this year to next year, 13.6 million tons of alumina projects in Guangxi are waiting to be put into production, while there is no new alumina capacity in Shanxi and Henan, and some factories may face elimination [17]. - On July 24, the EU started monitoring the import and export of scrap metals such as steel, aluminum, and copper due to supply shortages and smelter shutdown risks [17]. - On July 24, Japanese copper smelters were in difficult mid - year negotiations on processing and refining fees (TC/RCs) [17] 02. Macroeconomic Analysis Domestic Market - On July 21, the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged, in line with market expectations [21]. Overseas Market - On July 22, the US reached a trade agreement with Japan, with a 15% tariff rate and a $550 billion Japanese investment in the US [22]. - On July 27, the US reached a 15% tariff agreement with the EU, with the EU increasing investment in the US by $600 billion, buying US military equipment and $750 billion worth of US energy products [22] 03. Copper Market Analysis Spot Market - The processing fee TC remained weak [26] Futures Market - The net long position in COMEX copper declined [29] Overseas Market - The US dollar index declined [33] Inventory - Exchange inventories of copper in SHFE, LME, and COMEX, as well as Shanghai bonded area inventories, were presented [35]. - As of July 24, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.44 million tons to 11.42 million tons. The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises decreased, and the inventory accumulated. The future operating rate is expected to continue to decline [41] 04. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis Domestic Market - The spot premium of aluminum narrowed [44] Overseas Market - The US dollar index weakened [48] Inventory - Weekly inventories of SHFE aluminum, aluminum rod social inventory, electrolytic aluminum social inventory, and LME aluminum total inventory were shown [50] Downstream Operating Rate - As of July 24, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing industries decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. Different sectors had different performances, and the weekly operating rate is expected to decline by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% [52] Recycled Aluminum Alloy - As of July 24, the SMM ADC12 price was 20,100 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 100 yuan/ton. The cost increased, but the demand was weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [56] Cost and Profit - The cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum were analyzed, and the profit was presented in a graph [60] 05. Alumina Market Analysis Spot Market - The spot price of alumina remained stable [63] Futures Market - The inventory of alumina futures was at a low level [66] Supply and Demand - Supply: The supply of alumina decreased slightly due to the short - term maintenance of two roasting furnaces in a southwestern plant. As of July 24, the built - in capacity was 114.8 million tons, and the operating capacity was 93.2 million tons [71]. - Demand: The operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased slightly, leading to an increase in alumina demand [71] Cost and Profit - The cost of alumina increased slightly this week due to factors such as the price changes of bauxite, liquid caustic soda, and thermal coal. As of July 24, the industry cost was 2,997.62 yuan/ton, and the average profit was 250.36 yuan/ton [72]

Report Title - "Three major indices hit new highs for the year, with daily trading volume reaching 1.8 trillion" - Stock Index Option Weekly Report 2025.7.28 [1] Core View - This week, the A-share market continued its upward trend, with the three major indices hitting new highs for the year and daily trading volume exceeding 1.7 trillion. For the CSI 300 Index, the moving averages showed a long - position arrangement, and the three - color K - line indicators remained red both daily and weekly. The IF futures' current - month contract's basis to the underlying first shrank and then expanded, while the next - month contract's discount to the current - month contract narrowed. The IO option's trading volume decreased, but the open interest increased, and both the trading volume PCR and open interest PCR rose, with implied volatility increasing, and the underlying index exceeding the strike - price range of the maximum open interest of call and put options. The CSI 1000 Index's daily and weekly K - line indicators were also positive. The IM futures' current - month contract's discount to the underlying first expanded and then shrank, and the next - month contract's discount to the current - month contract narrowed. The MO option's trading volume increased, and the open interest rose, with both PCRs rising, implied volatility increasing, and the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options moving up. The SSE 50 Index also had positive K - line indicators. The IH futures' current - month contract turned to a premium over the underlying, and the next - month contract remained at a premium to the current - month contract. The HO option's trading volume decreased, the open interest increased, the trading volume PCR rose, the open interest PCR decreased, implied volatility increased, and the strike - price range of the maximum open interest of call and put options narrowed [2]. Summary by Directory 1. CSI 300 Stock Index Option (IO) - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 Index had five consecutive weekly positive K - lines, and the three - color K - line indicator remained red. The daily moving averages were in a long - position arrangement, and the three - color K - line indicator also remained red [10][13]. - **Futures Basis**: The IF futures' current - month contract's basis to the underlying first shrank and then expanded, and the next - month contract's discount to the current - month contract narrowed [20][23]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CSI 300 stock index futures decreased, and the open interest also decreased [25]. - **Option Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of IO options decreased, but the open interest increased [28]. - **Option PCR**: Both the trading volume PCR and open interest PCR of IO options increased [31]. - **Option Strike Price**: The underlying index exceeded the strike - price range of the maximum open interest of call and put options, and the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options for the 2508 contract were both 4100, with the option pain point at 4000 [15][34]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of IO options increased [17] 2. CSI 1000 Stock Index Option (MO) - **Index Performance**: The CSI 1000 Index's daily moving averages were in a long - position arrangement, hitting a new high for the year, and the three - color K - line indicators remained red both daily and weekly [38][41]. - **Futures Basis**: The IM futures' current - month contract's discount to the underlying first expanded and then shrank, and the next - month contract's discount to the current - month contract narrowed [49][51]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CSI 1000 stock index futures decreased, and the open interest also decreased [54]. - **Option Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of MO options increased, and the open interest rose [57]. - **Option PCR**: Both the trading volume PCR and open interest PCR of MO options increased [60]. - **Option Strike Price**: The strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options for the 2508 contract were 6800 and 6500 respectively, and the option pain point was 6500. The strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options both moved up [43][63]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of MO options increased [46] 3. SSE 50 Stock Index Option (HO) - **Index Performance**: The SSE 50 Index had five consecutive weekly positive K - lines, and the three - color K - line indicator remained red. The daily moving averages were in a long - position arrangement, and the three - color K - line indicator also remained red [67][70]. - **Futures Basis**: The IH futures' current - month contract turned to a premium over the underlying, and the next - month contract remained at a premium to the current - month contract [78][80]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SSE 50 stock index futures decreased, and the open interest also decreased [83]. - **Option Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of HO options decreased, but the open interest increased [85]. - **Option PCR**: The trading volume PCR of HO options increased, while the open interest PCR decreased [87]. - **Option Strike Price**: The strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options for the 2508 contract were 2800 and 2750 respectively, and the option pain point was 2750. The strike - price range of the maximum open interest of call and put options narrowed [72][88]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of HO options increased [75] Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Strategy**: Pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities among varieties [2]. - **Volatility Strategy**: Buy a strangle to go long on volatility [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the concentrated release of positive sentiment last week, the market cooled down this week. Attention should be paid to tariff disturbances around August 1st and the messages released by the Politburo meeting. The five major steel products had a slight reduction in inventory. Rebar had both increased production and demand, and the apparent demand had a significant increase supported by the recovery of speculative demand, leading to a reduction in total inventory again. The decline in the apparent demand of hot-rolled coils was greater than the reduction in production, and the total inventory increased slightly, but the overall inventory accumulation was limited. Currently, the inventory contradiction of finished products was not prominent, and the core of off-season trading remained focused on macro - policy expectations. After the previous concentrated release of benefits, steel prices faced pressure at high levels, and with the pressure decline of coking coal at the raw material end, the cost decreased, and the black series was under pressure, showing a short - term weak and volatile operation [3]. - For iron ore, the supply from Australia and Brazil had a phased recovery, and the arrival volume was still in a downward process. The daily output of hot metal decreased slightly but was still at a high level year - on - year, and the port clearance volume decreased slightly. The port inventory was stable without obvious inventory accumulation pressure. In the medium term, there was still an expectation of an increase in overseas shipments of iron ore in the second half of the year. After the digestion of the macro - positive sentiment last week, iron ore faced pressure at high levels and the pressure of a decline this week [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the domestic mine production was stable. With the acceleration of market transactions, the inventory pressure was relieved. Coking enterprises were in a loss state due to cost pressure, and some low - inventory coking enterprises limited production to support prices. The increase in coke prices had been launched for four rounds. After multiple limit - up of coking coal, the Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit of coking coal futures, and short - term prices faced the pressure of a decline [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Macro - sentiment recovery and rising raw material costs led to steel prices reaching new highs. The prices of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coking coal, and coke all increased. The positions of the top 20 long and short holders in futures contracts decreased. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different changes, and the price differences also changed. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased slightly. The market trading core was concentrated on macro - policy expectations and raw material price fluctuations [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: National rebar weekly output was 211.96 tons (up 1.39% month - on - month, down 2.18% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil weekly output was 317.49 tons (down 1.14% month - on - month, down 3.27% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace output increased, and electric furnace output decreased [15][17]. - **Operating Rate**: The national blast furnace operating rate was 83.46% (unchanged month - on - month, up 1.00% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 72.02% (up 10.66% month - on - month, up 10.36% year - on - year) [27]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit was + 282 yuan/ton (up 64.91% week - on - week, up 362 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was + 146 yuan/ton (up 78.77% week - on - week, up 307 yuan/ton year - on - year) [31]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 216.58 tons (up 5.05% month - on - month, up 0.45% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 315.24 tons (down 2.64% month - on - month, down 1.86% year - on - year) [35][37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 538.64 tons (down 0.85% month - on - month, down 29.15% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 345.16 tons (up 0.66% month - on - month, down 19.76% year - on - year) [41][46]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 4.24% month - on - month and decreased by 16.60% year - on - year. The weekly land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 14.31% month - on - month and decreased by 45.13% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in June 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.794 million and 2.904 million respectively, up 5.5% and 8.1% month - on - month, and up 11.4% and 13.8% year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 104 (up 4.16% month - on - month, up 1.75% year - on - year). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2677.8 tons (up 8.02% month - on - month, up 7.65% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2240.5 tons (down 5.51% month - on - month, up 22.97% year - on - year) [59]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal was 242.33 tons (down 0.21 tons month - on - month, up 2.62 tons year - on - year), the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 315.15 tons (down 2.35% month - on - month, up 0.45% year - on - year), and the inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.51 days (up 0.75% month - on - month, down 5.84% year - on - year) [64]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports was 13790.38 tons (up 0.04% month - on - month, down 8.61% year - on - year), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8885.22 tons (up 0.71% month - on - month, down 3.47% year - on - year), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 23.51 days (up 2.48% month - on - month, up 13.36% year - on - year) [70]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 86.9% (up 0.96% month - on - month, down 4.37% year - on - year), the operating rate of coal washing plants was 62.31% (down 0.86% month - on - month, down 9.14% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 154400 tons (up 21.57% month - on - month, down 2.72% year - on - year) [76]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 54 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton month - on - month, down 97 yuan/ton year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.45% (up 0.60% month - on - month, down 0.90% year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke was 86.97% [84]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 841.27 tons (up 6.46% month - on - month, up 11.57% year - on - year), the steel mill coking coal inventory was 799.34 tons (up 1.06% month - on - month, up 7.10% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 292.34 tons (down 9.07% month - on - month, up 5.73% year - on - year). The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 50.12 tons (down 9.78% month - on - month, up 42.35% year - on - year), the steel mill coke inventory was 639.98 tons (up 0.15% month - on - month, up 17.86% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 198.13 tons (down 0.49% month - on - month, up 0.20% year - on - year) [90][96]. - **Spot Price**: Coke started the fourth round of price increases [97]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils both contracted, and the 10 - 01 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coils fluctuated narrowly. The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore and the coil - to - rebar spread both decreased slightly [104][110].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro Environment**: Domestic policy signals are released, leading to a positive sentiment. The US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, improving market sentiment [4]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In the East China region, supply - demand fluctuations are relatively limited this week, with no planned device maintenance and sufficient supply. The off - season continues as non - aluminum demand shows no significant improvement. The inventory of liquid caustic soda in the main production areas of Shandong Province remains at a low level [4]. - **Overall Logic**: Caustic soda has strong cost support at the bottom. The domestic "anti - involution" drives the market sentiment to strengthen. However, if the futures price has a high premium over the spot price, beware of the risk of a decline [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the caustic soda 2509 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 2750 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 2350 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The price of Shandong liquid caustic soda remained stable. The basis of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda widened. From July 2024 to July 2025, data on the prices of 32% and 50% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong, as well as the prices of 99% flake caustic soda in Shandong and the northwest, were presented. The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong decreased by 1.19% to 830 yuan/ton, the price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda decreased by 2.19% to 1340 yuan/ton, and the price of 98% flake caustic soda in the northwest increased by 7.26% to 3250 yuan/ton. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong decreased by 33.33% to - 400 yuan/ton, and the price of alumina increased by 1.75% to 3195 yuan/ton [9][12][18]. - **Futures Market**: Data on the futures closing prices of caustic soda, soda ash, alumina, and PVC from July 2024 to July 2025 were presented, along with the caustic soda futures closing price and the number of warehouse receipts [15][16]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side: Production and Operating Rate - **Current Situation**: From January to July 2025, data on the weekly production, operating rate, and device loss of caustic soda were presented. In the week of July 18 - 24, 2025, the average operating rate of 200,000 - ton and above caustic soda sample enterprises in China was 84.0%, a month - on - month increase of 1.4%. The operating rates in North China, East China, Northeast China, and South China increased, while that in Central China decreased. Shandong's operating rate increased to 87.6%. It is estimated that the operating rate this week will be around 84%, with a weekly output of about 822,900 tons [20][22]. - **Maintenance Plan**: There are planned device maintenance in the Northwest this week. Some enterprises in East China, North China, Northeast China, and Southwest China have maintenance plans in August [22][23]. 3.2.2 Downstream: Alumina - **Supply Situation**: In the current week, the supply of the alumina market decreased slightly. Due to the short - term maintenance of two roasting furnaces in an alumina plant in the Southwest, the supply shortage in the South intensified, while the supply in the North was relatively loose. As of July 24, the built - in capacity of alumina in China was 114.8 million tons, and the operating capacity was 93.2 million tons [25]. - **Operating Rate and Profit**: Data on the weekly operating rate and industry cost - profit of alumina from January to December 2018 - 2025 were presented [26]. 3.2.3 Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: As of July 24, 2025, the factory inventory of 200,000 - ton and above fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in the country was 408,400 wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.38% and a year - on - year increase of 4.29%. The storage capacity ratio was 24.06%, a month - on - month increase of 1.82%. Except for the Northwest and Central China, the storage capacity ratios in other regions increased [30]. - **Regional Inventory**: In North China, inventory increased due to high - price downstream resistance and increased supply. In South China, inventory rebounded as the main factory resumed full - load operation. In Central China, inventory decreased as some enterprises' sales improved. In East China, inventory increased due to the off - season of non - aluminum demand and general export orders. In the Northwest, inventory decreased as downstream procurement enthusiasm increased. In Southwest China, inventory increased slightly as enterprises maintained production and downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [30]. 3.2.4 Liquid Chlorine - **Price**: As of July 24, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong decreased, with a weekly average price of - 400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75%. The demand for liquid chlorine decreased due to the non - recovery of downstream methane devices in Liaocheng and the shutdown of chlorine - consuming downstream devices in Zibo [33]. - **PVC Operating Rate**: As of July 25, 2025, the operating rate of PVC in China was 76.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.80%. It is estimated that the operating rate this week will be 76.86%, and the overall supply is expected to increase [33]. - **Profit**: In the week of July 18 - 24, 2025, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 136 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.62%. Although the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased and the liquid chlorine subsidy decreased, the overall chlor - alkali profit showed an upward trend [34].