Group 1: Market Trends - Spot silver increased over 7%, reaching approximately 103 USD/ounce [1] - Spot gold rose by 1%, peaking at about 4988 USD/ounce [1] - London copper surged by 3.4%, hitting 13187.50 USD/ton, close to its historical high earlier this month [1] - London tin rose by 9.5% and London nickel increased by 4.2% [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Southwest Securities' metal research team suggests focusing on four main lines: 1. Expansion of the denominator: Long-term bullish outlook on gold, with attention to Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and marginal changes in trade wars. The high gold-silver ratio indicates significant upward momentum for silver, making silver targets a priority [1] 2. Improvement of the numerator: A decline in alumina prices by 2025 will significantly enhance the unit profitability of electrolytic aluminum, with aluminum profits expected to remain high, though short-term demand weakness may lead to price declines for both copper and aluminum [1] 3. Key advantageous minerals such as rare earths, antimony, and tungsten are expected to perform better [1] 4. Supply-side disruptions due to anti-involution trends may present opportunities in the lithium carbonate sector [1] Group 3: Company Developments - Shandong Gold is actively increasing its resource reserves through multiple equity and exploration rights acquisitions since 2023 [2] - Xinyi Silver Tin's subsidiary, Yinman Mining, is one of the largest silver production mines in China, while its tin concentrate output ranks second nationally. Yubang Mining has the largest single silver mine reserves in Asia [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - Liquidity expectations have upgraded, leading to intensified trading. Recent optimistic interest rate cut expectations have resurfaced, driving both precious and industrial metals to break through previous levels. In the past week, the negative feedback for copper and aluminum has significantly weakened, and improvements in the real economy may be observed under high price conditions. Overall, the bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged under the support of domestic and international policies [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The report indicates an upgrade in liquidity expectations and a continuation of intense trading. The probability of BlackRock executive Riedel being elected as the Federal Reserve Chairman has surged to 54%. The optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts have reignited, pushing precious and industrial metals to new highs. Although copper and aluminum inventories continue to accumulate, the pace of accumulation has slowed, and the negative feedback from downstream processing has significantly diminished, with operating rates beginning to recover [9][13]. 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 6.03%, ranking fourth among all industries [28]. The report lists several investment targets, including Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988, Buy) and Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) [4]. 3. Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing intense liquidity trading, awaiting the confirmation of the Federal Reserve Chairman nomination. As of January 23, SHFE gold rose by 8.07% to 1,115.64 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 7.54% to 4,036.00 USD per ounce. The report notes that the market expects limited upward pressure on precious metals in the short term due to anticipated interest rate stabilization [14][30]. 4. Copper - The report highlights renewed support for copper prices due to supply disruptions. As of January 23, SHFE copper rose by 0.57% to 101,340 CNY per ton, and LME copper increased by 2.44% to 13,115 USD per ton. Supply tightness continues, with recent strikes in Chile affecting copper concentrate availability [17][70]. 5. Aluminum - The report indicates a reduction in negative feedback for aluminum, with demand showing marginal recovery. As of January 23, SHFE aluminum rose by 1.53% to 24,290 CNY per ton, and LME aluminum increased by 1.12% to 3,169 USD per ton. The processing operating rate has risen by 0.7 percentage points to 60.9% [16][83].

相关研究 证券分析师 2026 年 01 月 25 日 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 地缘紧张避险升温，金属价格强势 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20260119-20260123 本期投资提示： 有色金属 究 / 行 业 点 评 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行业点评 1．一周行情回顾 据 iFind，总体看，环比上周，上证指数上涨 0.84%，深证成指上涨 1.11%，沪深 300 下跌 0.62%，有色金属（申万）指数上涨 6.03%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 6.65 个百分点； 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Liquidity expectations have upgraded, leading to intensified trading. Recent optimistic interest rate cut expectations have resurfaced, driving both precious and industrial metals to break through previous levels. The negative feedback for copper and aluminum has notably weakened, and improvements in the real economy may be observed under high price conditions. Overall, the bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged under the support of domestic and international policies [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The cycle assessment indicates an upgrade in liquidity expectations and a continuation of intense trading. The probability of BlackRock executive Riedel being elected as the Federal Reserve Chairman has surged to 54%. The optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts have reignited, pushing precious and industrial metals to new highs. Although copper and aluminum inventories continue to accumulate, the pace of accumulation has slowed, and the negative feedback from downstream processing has significantly diminished, with operating rates beginning to recover [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 6.03%, ranking fourth among all industries [28]. The precious metals sector experienced the highest gains [21]. 3. Precious Metals - For precious metals, trading has become intensely liquid, awaiting the confirmation of the Federal Reserve Chairman nomination. As of January 23, SHFE gold rose by 8.07% to 1,115.64 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 7.54% to 4,036.00 USD per ounce. The inventory levels for SHFE gold were 102 tons, an increase of 1.96 tons from the previous week [14][30]. 4. Copper - The copper market is experiencing renewed support due to supply disruptions. As of January 23, SHFE copper rose by 0.57% to 101,340 CNY per ton, and LME copper increased by 2.44% to 13,115 USD per ton. The operating rate for refined copper rods was 67.98%, up by 10.51 percentage points [17][29]. 5. Aluminum - The aluminum market shows signs of demand recovery as negative feedback weakens. As of January 23, SHFE aluminum rose by 1.53% to 24,290 CNY per ton, and LME aluminum increased by 1.12% to 3,169 USD per ton. The processing operating rate rose by 0.7 percentage points to 60.9% [16][85].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, among others [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in commodity prices, particularly in precious metals like gold and silver, driven by rising geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns [8][67]. - Industrial metals are expected to see price stability due to improved domestic demand and production adjustments, despite some fluctuations in inventory levels [21][24]. - The energy metals sector, particularly cobalt and nickel, is facing supply constraints, which may lead to price increases in the near future [83]. Industry and Company Performance - The SW Nonferrous Index rose by 6.03% during the week of January 19-23, with precious metals like gold and silver increasing by 8.30% and 14.80%, respectively [8]. - Key companies such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are projected to have strong earnings growth, with EPS estimates for 2024 at 1.21 and 0.63 yuan, respectively [2]. - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Shengtu Mining, China Nonferrous Mining, and Western Mining, based on their strong market positions and growth potential [8]. Base Metals - Aluminum prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels, with LME aluminum prices recorded at $3,174 per ton, reflecting a 1.44% increase [13][24]. - Copper prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors, with current prices at $13,128.5 per ton, showing a 2.50% increase [13][38]. - Zinc prices have shown volatility, with LME zinc prices at $3,246.5 per ton, reflecting a 1.17% increase, driven by supply disruptions [43][44]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have surged due to heightened geopolitical risks, with gold trading at approximately 4,983.10 USD per ounce, an increase of 8.30% [15][67]. - The report emphasizes the long-term bullish outlook for gold prices, supported by central bank purchases and weakening dollar credit [67]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to ongoing supply shortages, with current prices around 432,500 yuan per ton [83]. - Nickel prices are projected to remain high due to production cuts in Indonesia, with current prices at 148,010 yuan per ton [55].

- The report focuses on the "CSI Nonferrous Metal Mining Theme Index," which selects 40 listed companies with nonferrous metal mineral reserves as index samples, reflecting the overall performance of nonferrous metal mining-themed listed companies. The index emphasizes upstream mining companies due to their higher profit elasticity and direct benefits from metal price increases. The index is designed to capture the value of upstream resource enterprises and is suitable for investors optimistic about resource cycle trends[27][28][32] - The index adopts a balanced strategy for selecting constituent stocks. It first excludes the bottom 10% of low-liquidity stocks based on daily trading volume, then selects the top three securities from each CSI fourth-level industry based on market capitalization rankings over the past year. If fewer than three securities are available, all are included. Remaining samples are added based on market capitalization rankings until the total reaches 40 stocks. This ensures representation across various resource categories, including gold, aluminum, rare earths, cobalt, lithium, and other strategic metals. The index is adjusted semi-annually in June and December[28][32] - The index's constituent stocks are distributed across four major sectors: industrial metals, energy metals, precious metals, and strategic small metals. This structure aligns with high-demand downstream industries such as new energy, AI computing power, power infrastructure, and semiconductors, enabling precise capture of core investment opportunities across the entire industry chain[7][32][40] - The index's market capitalization distribution is concentrated in large-cap stocks, with 55.61% of the weight allocated to stocks with a market capitalization above 1 trillion RMB. Mid-cap stocks (200-1000 billion RMB) account for 43.09% of the weight, providing effective support. This structure avoids risks associated with small-cap stocks while leveraging the resource barriers of large-cap leaders and capturing growth opportunities in niche sectors[41][46] - The index demonstrates strong performance across various timeframes. Over the past year, its return reached 120.35%, significantly outperforming major broad-based indices like the CSI 300 (24.58%) and the Shanghai Composite Index (27.13%). It also surpassed industry indices such as the SW Nonferrous Metals Index (107.58%). In the medium term, its six-month return was 95.59%, and its three-month return was 28.48%. Short-term performance was equally impressive, with a one-month return of 24.06%[59][62][64]

Core Insights - The report highlights a bullish outlook for the metals sector, driven by macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a recovering global economy, particularly in China [3][44] - Key investment themes for 2026 include expanding demand for precious metals like gold and silver, improving fundamentals for aluminum and copper, strategic opportunities in rare earths, and supply-side disruptions due to overcapacity in certain sectors [3][4] Group 1: Precious Metals - The report suggests a long-term bullish view on gold, with expectations of price increases driven by anticipated interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, which enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3][44] - Silver is also highlighted as a key investment opportunity due to its high price ratio to gold, indicating potential for significant price appreciation [3] - Specific companies to watch include Shandong Gold (600547.SH) and Zijin Mining (601899.SH), which are expected to benefit from increased production and operational efficiencies [4] Group 2: Industrial Metals - The report notes that aluminum and copper are set to see improved profitability due to lower production costs and increased demand, particularly in the context of infrastructure investments [3][4] - Companies such as Zhongfu Industrial (600595.SH) and Zijin Mining (601899.SH) are identified as having strong positions in the copper market, with expected profit growth [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply chain dynamics, particularly in copper, where inventory levels are shifting significantly [18][58] Group 3: Rare Earths and Strategic Metals - The report identifies rare earth elements as a critical area for investment, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions between the US and China, which may create opportunities for companies involved in rare earth mining and processing [3][4] - Companies like Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH) and China Rare Earth (000831.SZ) are highlighted for their potential to benefit from price increases in rare earth materials [4] Group 4: Energy Metals - The report discusses the rebound in lithium and nickel prices, driven by strong demand from the battery sector, with specific mention of companies like Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ) and Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ) [4][27] - The expected growth in energy storage solutions is also noted as a significant driver for demand in these metals [4] Group 5: Overall Market Performance - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector is noted to have outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 96.46% in 2025 compared to a 21.65% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [33][35] - The report indicates that while the sector has seen significant gains, valuations are currently at historical averages, suggesting potential for further growth [35]

Group 1 - The precious metals sector increased by 2.28% on January 23, with Sichuan Gold leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4136.16, up 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14439.66, up 0.79% [1] - Sichuan Gold's stock price rose by 10.01% to 50.23, with a trading volume of 513,900 shares and a transaction value of 2.516 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The net outflow of main funds in the precious metals sector was 1.254 billion yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 749 million yuan [1] - Among individual stocks, Zhongjin Gold had a main fund net inflow of 126 million yuan, while Hunan Silver experienced a 9.60% increase in stock price [2] - Shandong Gold saw a significant net outflow of 1.87 billion yuan from main funds, despite a retail net inflow of 19.1 million yuan [2]

Core Insights - The China Securities Sub-Industry Nonferrous Metals Theme Index (000811) has seen a strong increase of 2.55% as of January 23, 2026, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Huafeng Aluminum (up 10.00%), Silver Nonferrous (up 9.97%), and Tongling Nonferrous (up 9.94%) [1] - The Nonferrous Metals ETF (516650) rose by 2.75%, reaching a latest price of 2.24 yuan, and has accumulated a 1.16% increase over the past week [1] - The Nonferrous Metals ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past 21 days, totaling 11.807 billion yuan, with the latest share count reaching 7.224 billion and total assets at 15.773 billion yuan, both marking new highs since inception [1] - Over the past two years, the net value of the Nonferrous Metals ETF has increased by 169.74%, ranking 35th out of 2,515 index equity funds, placing it in the top 1.39% [1] - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 27.00% since inception, with the longest consecutive months of increase being 6 months and the highest cumulative increase being 69.57%, averaging a monthly return of 9.76% during rising months [1] Index Composition - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Nonferrous Metals Theme Index include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, Huayou Cobalt, China Aluminum, Ganfeng Lithium, Shandong Gold, Yun Aluminum, Zhongjin Gold, and Tianqi Lithium, collectively accounting for 52.98% of the index [2] Stock Performance - The performance of key stocks within the index includes: - Zijin Mining: -0.13% with a weight of 15.30% - Luoyang Molybdenum: +0.13% with a weight of 7.92% - Northern Rare Earth: +0.44% with a weight of 5.30% - Huayou Cobalt: +5.38% with a weight of 4.69% - China Aluminum: -0.45% with a weight of 4.39% - Ganfeng Lithium: +5.63% with a weight of 3.23% - Shandong Gold: +0.87% with a weight of 3.18% - Yun Aluminum: -0.24% with a weight of 3.11% - Zhongjin Gold: +2.88% with a weight of 3.08% - Tianqi Lithium: +3.54% with a weight of 2.60% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a strong rally, with the popular ETF, Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876), reaching a historical high and significant trading volume, indicating potential investment opportunities [1][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector has shown a robust performance, with the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) rising by 3.29% and achieving a trading volume of 1.07 billion yuan, surpassing the previous day's total [1][9]. - Major stocks in the sector, such as Baiyin Non-Ferrous and Tongling Non-Ferrous, have seen significant gains, with Baiyin Non-Ferrous up by 9.97% and Tongling Non-Ferrous by 9.94% [2][14]. - The overall market sentiment is positive, with the non-ferrous metal sector leading among 31 primary sub-industries in the A-share market [5][13]. Group 2: Gold Price Surge - International gold prices have surged, with spot gold reaching 4,950 USD per ounce, marking a new historical high, while COMEX gold futures peaked at 4,970 USD per ounce [2][10]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to factors such as geopolitical tensions, U.S. risks, and central bank gold purchases, which are expected to support gold prices in the future [3][13]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF has seen a net subscription of 52.2 million units, accumulating 844 million yuan over the past 20 days, indicating strong investor interest [1][11]. - The ETF covers a wide range of metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing investors to capture various market cycles [6][16]. - Analysts predict that the demand for basic metals like copper, aluminum, and tin will continue to perform well due to emerging needs in AI, electricity, and new energy sectors [3][13].