Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The expectation of increased steel import tariffs in India is likely to boost demand for South African thermal coal, as the tariffs aim to protect domestic steel producers from low-priced imports [2] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in companies such as Shenhua Energy, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, suggesting that these companies may benefit from the current market dynamics [3][6] Summary by Sections Coal Mining - As of April 30, 2025, coal prices showed mixed trends: Newcastle coal (6000K) increased by $3.8/ton (+4.1%) to $97.5/ton, while European ARA coal decreased by $1.0/ton (-1.1%) to $93.8/ton [1][37] - South African coal exports are expected to rebound to over 6 million tons due to increased demand from the sponge iron industry [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in companies such as Shaanxi Coal, China Shenhua, and others, with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating potential growth [6] - Specific companies highlighted for their strong performance include China Coal Energy and Jinneng Holding, with EPS forecasts for 2024 ranging from 1.21 to 2.95 [6] Market Trends - The report notes a significant drop in energy prices, with Brent crude oil down by $3.00/barrel (-4.54%) and WTI down by $4.06/barrel (-6.52%) as of the latest review [1][14] - The overall coal market is experiencing fluctuations, with the potential for increased operational costs due to transportation challenges in South Africa [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [3][5][12]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance was impacted by declining coal prices, with a year-on-year revenue decrease of 15.4% and a net profit decline of 20.0% [1]. - Despite the challenges in the coal sector, the company is expected to maintain stable operations and has plans for a mid-term cash dividend of at least 30% of net profit [3]. - The company’s non-coal business showed resilience, with improved profitability in products like polyethylene and methanol, despite a slight decline in overall revenue [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 38.39 billion yuan, down 15.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.98 billion yuan, down 20.0% year-on-year [1]. - Coal production slightly increased by 1.9% to 33.35 million tons, while coal prices fell significantly, affecting overall profitability [1]. - The average selling price of self-produced coal was 492 yuan per ton, a decrease of 17.7% year-on-year, leading to a gross profit margin decline [1]. Non-Coal Business - The non-coal business generated revenue of 7.142 billion yuan, down 9.7% year-on-year, but with a gross profit of 2.01 billion yuan, reflecting a smaller decline of 6.6% [2]. - The profitability of polyethylene and methanol improved, with methanol turning profitable with a gross profit of 380 yuan per ton [2]. Dividend and Shareholder Confidence - The company plans to continue its mid-term cash dividend policy, with a minimum payout ratio of 30% based on net profit [3]. - The controlling shareholder, China Coal, plans to increase its stake in the company, demonstrating confidence in its future performance [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 17.3 billion yuan for 2025, with corresponding EPS of 1.31 yuan [3]. - The company is valued at a price-to-book (PB) ratio of less than 1, indicating it is undervalued relative to its assets [3].

Core Viewpoint - The coal chemical industry in China is characterized by a diverse range of listed companies, each with distinct business layouts and performance metrics, focusing on both traditional and modern coal chemical products [1][3][20]. Industry Overview - The coal chemical industry is supported by upstream coal mining companies, which provide raw materials, and is influenced by coal price fluctuations that affect production costs and profit margins [1]. - The industry is divided into traditional coal chemical (e.g., coal-based fertilizers, synthetic ammonia) and modern coal chemical (e.g., new coal-based energy and materials) [1]. Key Listed Companies - Major listed companies in the coal chemical sector include China Shenhua (601088), Yanzhou Coal (600188), Baofeng Energy (600989), and others, with varying degrees of involvement in the coal chemical value chain [1][3][4]. - China Shenhua is recognized as a global leader in coal-based comprehensive energy [3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, China Shenhua reported revenues of 1680.78 billion, while other companies like Yanzhou Coal and Baofeng Energy reported revenues of 723.12 billion and 168.97 billion respectively [4][5]. - The overall gross profit margins in the coal chemical sector vary significantly, with Baofeng Energy achieving a gross margin exceeding 40% [19]. Business Layout and Strategy - Companies are strategically located in resource-rich regions, primarily in North and East China, focusing on traditional coal chemical products while expanding into modern coal chemical sectors [16][18]. - Business strategies emphasize safety, environmental protection, energy efficiency, and technological advancement to align with national policies and market demands [20][21]. Employee Composition - China Shenhua has the largest workforce in the sector, employing approximately 83,400 individuals, including 11,400 technical staff [11]. Future Planning - Companies are focusing on high-quality development, with plans to enhance core competencies, ensure energy security, and promote green and sustainable practices [21][22].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector's overall performance in Q1 2025 showed a decline, with a total net profit of 24.12 billion yuan, down 41.5% year-on-year. Among 37 listed companies, 25 reported profits, with 23 experiencing a year-on-year decline in net profit [3] - The report suggests that the weak demand in Q1, influenced by holidays and higher temperatures, led to increased supply and falling coal prices. However, due to long-term contract pricing, the performance of thermal coal companies remained relatively stable. A rebound in coal prices is expected around mid-May [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring demand recovery and suggests that the current demand may represent the annual bottom, with a potential rebound in prices during the peak season [3] Industry Market Performance - As of April 29, the CITIC coal industry index fell by 3.69%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which declined by 2.89%. Year-to-date, the coal sector has dropped by 13.99%, lagging behind the CSI 300 by 9.93 percentage points [10] - The coal industry's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 11.5, which is relatively low compared to other sectors, ranking 27th among 30 CITIC primary industries [10] Supply and Demand Situation - In Q1 2025, the average daily sales of the top 20 coal groups decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, while national coal production increased by 8.1% to 1.2 billion tons [4][40] - The total coal consumption in China for Q1 2025 was 1.27 billion tons, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, with the power sector consuming 740 million tons, down 3% [59] - The report indicates that coal prices have generally declined in Q1, with thermal coal prices at 767.6 yuan/ton, down 16.5% year-on-year [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies during market dips, specifically mentioning China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy for thermal coal, and Huabei Mining and Lu'an Environmental Energy for coking coal [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, primarily due to falling coal prices, despite stable production and sales volumes [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 38.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.98 billion yuan, down 20.0% year-on-year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 3.94 billion yuan, a decline of 19.4% year-on-year [1] Coal Production and Sales - The company sold 64.14 million tons of commodity coal in Q1 2025, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year [1] - Self-produced commodity coal sales reached 32.68 million tons, up 1.1% year-on-year [1] - The average selling price of coal was 487 yuan/ton, down 17.0% year-on-year, while the average price for self-produced coal was 492 yuan/ton, down 17.7% year-on-year [1][2] Cost and Profitability - The cost of self-produced commodity coal was 270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.3% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit per ton of self-produced coal was 222 yuan, down 27.6% year-on-year [2] - Overall coal revenue was 31.25 billion yuan, a decline of 16.6% year-on-year, with operating costs at 23.80 billion yuan, down 13.0% year-on-year [2] Chemical Products Performance - The company sold 355,000 tons of olefins in Q1 2025, a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year, with an average price of 6,876 yuan/ton, up 0.4% year-on-year [2] - Urea sales reached 600,000 tons, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year, with an average price of 1,702 yuan/ton, down 23.9% year-on-year [2] - Methanol sales were 529,000 tons, up 33.6% year-on-year, with an average price of 1,794 yuan/ton, up 7.1% year-on-year, leading to a turnaround in profitability [2] New Capacity and Projects - The company is advancing coal, electricity, and new energy projects, including a stable release of production capacity from the Dahuize coal mine and the upcoming launch of a 400,000-ton/year project [3] - The company is also constructing a 900,000-ton/year polyolefin project and accelerating the development of various renewable energy projects [3] Dividend and Profit Forecast - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.258 yuan per share for the end of 2024, with a total dividend payout exceeding 30% [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 162.1 billion yuan, 156.5 billion yuan, and 156.0 billion yuan, respectively, with a forecasted net profit of 15 billion yuan, 14.7 billion yuan, and 14.6 billion yuan [3]

2025 年 04 月 29 日 与传统风格相关性更低，A 股资产配置 新方向：大成中证全指自由现金流 ETF （159235）投资价值分析 ——指数基金产品研究系列报告之二百四十七 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 方思齐 A0230123090003 fangsq@swsresearch.com 联系人 方思齐 (8621)23297818× fangsq@swsresearch.com 益 量 化 研 究 权 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共25页 简单金融 成就梦想 股 票 基 金 证券分析师 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 现金流 ETF 已经成为海外市场热门产品，国内产品申报火热。国内自由现金流产品目前 处于起步阶段，而海外现金流产品已经取得了丰硕的发展成果。其中规模领先的 COWZ 规模已超 200 亿美元。近期国内现金流 ETF 迎来集中申报浪潮， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance showed a decline in revenue and net profit due to falling coal prices, with revenue at 38.392 billion RMB, down 15.43% year-on-year, and net profit at 3.978 billion RMB, down 19.96% year-on-year [1][2] - Despite the decline, the company achieved significant cost reductions, expanded production and sales scale, and improved order structure, indicating resilience in cash flow and dividend sustainability [1][3] - The company plans to maintain its cash dividend policy in 2025, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The coal business generated sales revenue of 31.250 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a decrease of 16.6% year-on-year, with a production volume of 33.35 million tons, up 1.9% year-on-year, and sales volume of 64.14 million tons, up 0.4% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of self-produced coal decreased by 106 RMB/ton (-11.7%) to 492 RMB/ton, contributing to a revenue loss of 3.457 billion RMB, while the increase in sales volume partially offset this decline [2] Cost Management and Client Structure - The unit sales cost of self-produced coal was 269.82 RMB/ton, down 21.15 RMB/ton (-7.3%) year-on-year, driven by reduced material costs and optimized expense management [3] - The company maintains a strong client structure, primarily serving state-owned enterprises, which helps stabilize sales during price downturns [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 15.849 billion RMB, 18.112 billion RMB, and 18.546 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 6.8%, 4.6%, and 2.5% from previous estimates [4] - The target price for A-shares is set at 11.82 RMB, and for H-shares at 9.84 HKD, based on a DDM valuation approach [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company's performance has declined due to falling self-produced coal prices, but it shows potential for high dividends and growth, maintaining a "buy" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 38.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 21.6% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.98 billion yuan, down 20% year-on-year and 15.5% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.4% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 15.7% [1] - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 17.05 billion, 18.47 billion, and 19.07 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -11.8%, +8.3%, and +3.3% respectively [1] Group 2: Coal Business Performance - In Q1 2025, the company produced and sold 33.35 million and 64.14 million tons of commodity coal, representing year-on-year increases of 1.9% and 0.4%, but quarter-on-quarter decreases of 5.4% and 19.1% [2] - The average selling price of coal in Q1 2025 was 487.2 yuan per ton, down 17% year-on-year and 9.8% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The comprehensive cost of coal was 371 yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.4% [2] - The gross profit per ton of coal was 116.2 yuan, down 26.7% year-on-year and 11.2% quarter-on-quarter [2] Group 3: Coal Chemical Business Performance - In Q1 2025, the production of polyolefins, urea, methanol, and ammonium nitrate was 37.8, 52.8, 51.4, and 13.9 million tons, with year-on-year changes of -3.6%, +11.2%, +24.8%, and +6.9% respectively [2] - The selling prices for polyolefins, urea, methanol, and ammonium nitrate were 6,876, 1,702, 1,794, and 1,861 yuan per ton, with year-on-year changes of +0.4%, -23.9%, +7.1%, and -17.3% respectively [2] - The gross profit per ton for polyolefins, urea, methanol, and ammonium nitrate was 1,101, 360, 380, and 386 yuan per ton, with year-on-year changes of +16%, -46.7%, +675.8%, and -47.6% respectively [2] Group 4: Growth Potential and Dividend Policy - The company has two coal mines under construction, with expected production capacities of 4 million tons/year and 2.4 million tons/year, respectively, set to begin trial production by the end of 2025 [3] - The company plans to invest 23.888 billion yuan in a coal deep processing project, with a construction scale of 900,000 tons/year of polyolefins, and has already completed significant investment [3] - The cash dividend amount for 2024 is expected to be 6.35 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 32.87%, indicating potential for increased dividends in the future [3]

Summary of China Coal Energy Q1 2025 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Coal Energy - **Date**: Q1 2025 Earnings Call Key Financial Metrics - **Revenue**: 38.4 billion RMB, down 15.4% YoY [2][5] - **Total Profit**: 6.2 billion RMB, down 28.4% YoY [2][5] - **Net Profit**: 4 billion RMB, down 20% YoY [2][5] - **Coal Sales Volume**: 64.14 million tons, up 0.4% YoY [2][3] - **Average Selling Price of Self-produced Coal**: 492 RMB/ton, down 17.7% YoY [2][3] - **Average Selling Price of Trade Coal**: 486 RMB/ton, down 20.5% YoY [2][3] - **Unit Sales Cost of Self-produced Coal**: 269.82 RMB/ton, down 7.3% YoY [2][4] Operational Highlights - **Production and Sales**: - Self-produced coal sales increased by 1.1% to 32.68 million tons [3] - Trade coal sales increased by 4.9% to 31.20 million tons [3] - Significant decline in import and domestic agency coal sales, down 85.8% [3] - **Cash Flow**: Operating cash flow significantly decreased due to reduced net profit and delayed payments [2][7] Cost Management - **Cost Control Measures**: - Focus on stabilizing production and enhancing efficiency through smart construction and optimized production management [2][9] - Reduction in unit sales cost attributed to decreased stripping and mining activities [4][15] - **Future Cost Outlook**: Company aims to control costs amid rising pressures but cannot guarantee specific reductions due to rigid cost structures [9][15] Chemical Products Performance - **Polyolefins**: Production up 0.4%, unit cost down [2][7] - **Urea**: Production up 11.2%, average price down [2][7] - **Methanol**: Production up 24.8%, average price up [2][7] - **Ammonium Nitrate**: Production up 6.9%, average price down [2][7] Market and Strategic Initiatives - **Market Conditions**: Facing severe market pressures but optimistic about macroeconomic recovery [6][26] - **Long-term Contracts**: Compliance with national requirements, with a focus on optimizing contract volumes [11][13][14] - **Potential Acquisitions**: Evaluating acquisition of quality coal assets from the controlling shareholder [11][12] Shareholder Returns - **Dividend Policy**: Committed to a 35% dividend payout ratio for 2024 and ongoing mid-term dividends [22] Industry Outlook - **Coal Market Dynamics**: Anticipated stable demand for coal as a fundamental energy source in China, with production and consumption levels remaining high [26][35] - **Future Growth Drivers**: Investments in new coal mining projects and chemical production capacity expansion [27][28] Additional Insights - **Safety and Compliance**: Addressing regulatory issues related to overproduction at specific mines [23] - **Inventory Management**: Focus on balancing production and sales to manage inventory levels effectively [33][34] This summary encapsulates the key points from the earnings call, highlighting the financial performance, operational strategies, market conditions, and future outlook for China Coal Energy.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][6][20] Core Views - The company is focusing on cost reduction and increasing production to offset the decline in coal prices, while also enhancing shareholder returns through increased dividend frequency [1][4][18] - The company plans to maintain a mid-term dividend in 2025, with a payout ratio of no less than 30% [3][18] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 38.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.98 billion yuan, down 20.0% [1][9] - The coal business showed stable production and sales, with a total coal production of 33.35 million tons, an increase of 1.9% year-on-year [2][11] - The average selling price for self-produced thermal coal and coking coal was 454 yuan/ton and 922 yuan/ton, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [2][11] Coal Business - The company reported a decrease in gross profit for the coal segment to 7.45 billion yuan, down 26.7 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in coal prices [2][11] - The unit sales cost for self-produced coal decreased to 269.8 yuan/ton, a reduction of 21.2 yuan/ton year-on-year, attributed to various cost management strategies [2][11] Coal Chemical Business - The coal chemical segment saw an increase in production and sales, with total production and sales of 1.559 million tons and 1.625 million tons, respectively, up 10.6% and 12.1% year-on-year [3][16] - The unit sales costs for major products decreased due to falling coal prices, with reductions of 2.1% to 18.8% across various products [3][16] Profit Forecast and Financial Indicators - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 16.8 billion yuan, 16.9 billion yuan, and 17.7 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to anticipated coal price declines [4][20] - Key financial metrics include a projected net profit margin of 15.2% for 2025 and a return on equity (ROE) of 10.3% [5][21]