今日重点推荐 | 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3903 | 0.7 | -1.67 | 0.37 | | 深证综指 | 2469 | 1.24 | -1.16 | 0.61 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 0.81 | -0.84 | 18.64 | | 中盘指数 | 1.21 | -1.63 | 24.97 | | 小盘指数 | 1.23 | -1.45 | 20.17 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 保险Ⅱ | 5.78 | 5.97 | 13.66 | | 金属新材料 | 4.8 | -2.31 | 32.97 | | 航天装备Ⅱ | 3.62 | 13.13 | 43.78 | | 工业金属 | 3.42 | 9.72 | 71. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry, particularly highlighting the resilience of polyester filament in the off-season [3]. Core Insights - The demand for polyester filament has remained strong, with downstream textile operating rates reaching a high of 69.45% in early November and maintaining around 90% for polyester filament production [4][5]. - Inventory levels for polyester filament and downstream fabrics are relatively low, indicating a healthy supply-demand balance [7][8]. - Profitability for polyester filament has improved significantly since September, with expectations for further profit increases in Q4 [9][10]. Summary by Sections Polyester Filament Sector - Polyester filament has entered a demand peak since September, with downstream textile operating rates consistently high, peaking at 69.45% [4][5]. - As of December 5, the operating rate for polyester filament was 90.15%, indicating strong production levels [4][5]. - Inventory levels for polyester filament (POY/FDY/DTY) are at 16.3/21.2/24.3 days, remaining low compared to the annual average [7][8]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices increased to $63.75 per barrel, reflecting a 0.87% rise from the previous week [18]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. increased to 549, indicating a slight uptick in drilling activity [29]. Refining Sector - The comprehensive price spread for major refined products in Singapore decreased to $19.06 per barrel, down by $0.57 from the previous week [54]. - Domestic refining margins are expected to improve as oil prices stabilize [51]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester filament sector, such as Tongkun Co., and bottle-grade PET producers like Wankai New Materials [12]. - It also suggests monitoring large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical due to expected improvements in cost structures [12]. - For upstream exploration and production, companies like CNOOC and offshore oil service firms are highlighted for their potential performance improvements [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the cosmetics and medical beauty industry, despite recent underperformance compared to the market [4][5]. Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has shown weaker performance, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining by 2.0% from November 28 to December 5, 2025, underperforming the market [4][5]. - Douyin's performance in November met expectations, with domestic brands preparing actively for the upcoming Double 12 sales event, indicating a strong competitive landscape for domestic products [4][10]. - The report highlights the leading market share of Minoxidil products, particularly from Mandi International, which has established itself as a top brand in the hair growth sector [11][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The Shenwan Cosmetics Index fell by 2.2%, while the Shenwan Personal Care Index also dropped by 2.0%, both underperforming against the Shenwan A Index [4][5]. - The top-performing stocks in the sector included Juzhibio (+5.9%) and Hongmian Co. (+3.5%), while the worst performers were Kelao Co. (-7.6%) and Baiya Co. (-4.8%) [6]. Key Market Developments - Mandi International has dominated the Minoxidil market, achieving a revenue growth from 982 million yuan in 2022 to approximately 1.455 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 21.7% [12][13]. - The company has maintained a leading position in the market for ten consecutive years, with a market share of about 57% in the hair loss treatment sector and 71% in the Minoxidil product market as of 2024 [12][14]. E-commerce Insights - In November 2025, Douyin's domestic brand GMV showed significant growth, with brands like Han Shu and New Page experiencing double-digit increases [15][18]. - The overall retail sales of cosmetics in October 2025 grew by 9.6%, driven by the Double 11 shopping festival, indicating a robust recovery in consumer spending [18][20]. Company Announcements - Lin Qingxuan updated its IPO prospectus for the Hong Kong market, reporting a revenue of 1.052 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 98.3% [22][19]. - The company plans to expand its research and development team and explore international markets in Southeast Asia [22][19]. Market Trends - The Chinese consumer healthcare market is projected to grow from 9.313 billion yuan in 2018 to 16.420 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 9.9% [13]. - The report emphasizes the increasing market share of domestic brands in the skincare sector, with a notable rise in the competitive landscape against international brands [24].

Group 1: Market Sentiment - The market sentiment score continued to decline, reaching 2.4 as of December 5, down from 3.15 the previous week, indicating a bearish outlook from a sentiment perspective [2][8] - The overall trading activity in the market decreased, with total A-share trading volume dropping by 2.35% week-on-week, averaging 16,961.78 billion yuan, reflecting reduced market activity [15] - The financing balance ratio has been on the rise, reaching a three-year high, suggesting an increase in leveraged funds and a structural recovery in market risk appetite [28] Group 2: Sector Performance - The short-term scores for sectors such as telecommunications, household appliances, national defense, social services, and building materials have shown upward trends, with the petroleum and petrochemical sector having the highest short-term score of 79.66 [40][41] - The industry trading volatility has slightly decreased, indicating a slowdown in the pace of capital switching between sectors, with liquidity marginally weakening [23][26] - The correlation between sector crowding and weekly price changes is negligible, suggesting that high crowding sectors like national defense and telecommunications have experienced significant gains, but caution is advised regarding potential high-level pullbacks [44][46] Group 3: Timing Models - The current model indicates a preference for large-cap and value styles, with signals suggesting a potential strengthening of these trends in the future [40][50] - The communication sector has seen a rapid increase in short-term scores, indicating a favorable outlook for this sector [40] - The model's analysis of the relative strength index (RSI) suggests that while the value style is currently dominant, there may be a weakening of this signal in the near future [50]

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of December 5, 2025, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST) with a PE of 21.1x and a PB of 1.8x, positioned at the 77th and 39th historical percentiles respectively [2][5] - The Shanghai 50 index has a PE of 11.9x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 63rd and 42nd percentiles [2][5] - The CSI 300 index has a PE of 14.0x and a PB of 1.5x, at the 62nd and 32nd percentiles [2][5] - The CSI 500 index shows a PE of 32.4x and a PB of 2.2x, at the 60th and 43rd percentiles [2][5] - The ChiNext index has a PE of 39.8x and a PB of 5.1x, at the 32nd and 57th percentiles [2][5] - The STAR 50 index has a PE of 149.6x and a PB of 5.9x, at the 95th and 62nd percentiles [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile include Real Estate, Retail, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [2][3] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2][3] - The Medical Services industry has both PE and PB valuations below the 15th percentile [2][3] Industry Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry chain continues to show weakness, with upstream polysilicon futures prices down 1.6% and silicon material prices stable [2][3] - Battery materials like cobalt and nickel saw increases of 2.2% and 0.4% respectively, while lithium hexafluorophosphate prices rose by 3.0% [2][3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 1.8%, while iron ore prices fell by 0.3% [3] - The national cement price index decreased by 0.4%, and glass prices showed mixed trends with a 0.7% increase in spot prices [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 0.1%, while wholesale pork prices decreased by 0.8% [3] - The wholesale price index for liquor saw a slight decrease of 0.06% [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Excavator sales in November 2025 increased by 13.9% year-on-year, with domestic sales up by 9.1% and exports up by 18.8% [3] Technology TMT - China's semiconductor sales in October 2025 grew by 18.5% year-on-year, with global semiconductor sales increasing by 27.2% [3] Commodities - The Brent crude oil futures price rose by 1.1% to $63.86 per barrel, supported by OPEC+ decisions to maintain current production targets [3]

Group 1 - The North Exchange 50 index increased by 1.49%, indicating a market that is oscillating above the annual line, with trading volume increasing by 4.23% [7][17]. - The North Exchange market has shown increased activity in sectors such as satellite internet, edge AI, and humanoid robots, with notable stocks including Star Map Control, Haoshen Electronics, and Sanxie Electric [7][8]. - Eight North Exchange thematic public funds are entering their second open period, with a total estimated scale of 4.58 billion yuan, and there is speculation about a potential market rebound after December 20 [8][10]. Group 2 - This week, one new stock, Jingchuang Electric, was listed on the North Exchange, with a first-day price increase of 330.74% and a turnover rate of 93.84% [28][29]. - The North Exchange had 109 stocks rise and 173 stocks fall, resulting in a rise-fall ratio of 0.63, with Haoshen Electronics and Youji Co. leading the gains [35][39]. - The average PE ratio for the North Exchange is 81.73 times, with a median of 39.47 times, while the trading volume reached 3.069 billion shares, reflecting a 1.09% increase [21][22]. Group 3 - The new third board saw six new listings and ten delistings this week, with planned financing of 49 million yuan and completed financing of 38 million yuan [46][48]. - The North Exchange's financing balance increased to 7.510 billion yuan, up by 0.38 billion yuan from the previous week [24][22]. - The thematic public funds have reported a weak performance in their heavy-weight stocks, with an average decline of 8.29% since the National Day [9][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period (2025.12.01 - 2025.12.07) decreased significantly compared to the previous period, and the expected issuance and net financing in the next period (2025.12.08 - 2025.12.14) are similar to the current period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is 11.22 years, shorter than the previous period's 15.41 years [2]. - The issuance of new special-purpose bonds has started using the 50 billion yuan remaining quota, and the cumulative issuance in the current and next periods exceeds the original quota by 7.02 billion yuan and 12.02 billion yuan respectively. As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special-purpose bonds accounted for 92.8% and 101.6% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to reach 95.5% and 102.7% considering the next period's expected issuance [2]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds in December 2025 is 157.2 billion yuan, including 49.5 billion yuan of new special-purpose bonds. As of December 5, 2025, 16 regions have disclosed their planned issuance, with the same regions issuing 420.3 billion yuan and 800 million yuan in the same period last year, and the whole country issuing 1091.3 billion yuan and 2.11 billion yuan [2]. - In the current period, 740 million yuan of special new special-purpose bonds were issued, 110 million yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and 5.02 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts were issued. The 2 trillion yuan quota for special-purpose bonds to replace hidden debts this year has been fully issued [2]. - The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds widened comprehensively in the current period, and the weekly turnover rate increased compared to the previous period. As of December 5, 2025, the spreads of 10-year and 30-year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 19.20BP and 24.29BP respectively, widening by 1.32BP and 1.80BP compared to November 28, 2025 [2]. - Currently, the spreads of 15-year, 20-year, and 30-year local government bonds over treasury bonds, especially the 15-year ones, have certain cost-effectiveness [2]. Summary by Directory 1. The issuance volume of local government bonds in the current period decreased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - The total issuance of local government bonds in the current period (2025.12.01 - 2025.12.07) was 108.717 billion yuan (102.54 billion yuan in the previous period), and the expected issuance in the next period (2025.12.08 - 2025.12.14) is 106.954 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is 11.22 years, shorter than the previous period's 15.41 years [2][9]. - As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special-purpose bonds accounted for 92.8% and 101.6% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to reach 95.5% and 102.7% considering the next period's expected issuance. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 91.2%/99.5% and 92.0%/99.5% respectively, and in 2023 was 95.0%/96.7% and 96.1%/97.9% respectively [2][18]. - In the current period, 740 million yuan of special new special-purpose bonds were issued, 110 million yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and 5.02 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts were issued. As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special-purpose bonds was 135.83 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 200 billion yuan, reaching 100% of the issuance progress, and the quota for this year has been fully issued; since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts (possibly from the 50 billion yuan remaining quota mentioned in the Ministry of Finance's press conference on October 17) was 27.06 billion yuan [2][20]. 2. The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds widened comprehensively in the current period, and the weekly turnover rate increased compared to the previous period - As of December 5, 2025, the spreads of 10-year and 30-year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 19.20BP and 24.29BP respectively, widening by 1.32BP and 1.80BP compared to November 28, 2025, and were at the 49.80% and 94.30% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2][33]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.87%, up from the previous period's 0.69%. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Jilin, and Tianjin were better than the national average [2].

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 相关研究 - 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 07 日 供应格局趋紧，工业金属价格大幅 上行 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251201-20251205 本期投资提示： 行 业 点 评 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 证 有色金属 、 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.37% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the companies in the higher education sector, specifically for New Higher Education Group and Xijiao International Holdings [8][11]. Core Insights - The profitability of higher education companies is expected to rebound as the peak of cost increases has passed, with improvements in operational efficiency anticipated due to reduced capital expenditures [4][11]. - New Higher Education Group reported a revenue of 2.6 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, with adjusted net profit reaching 812 million yuan, up 5.2% [6][8]. - The student structure is continuously optimized, with an increase in the proportion of undergraduate students, leading to higher average tuition fees [6][7]. - The report highlights the importance of maintaining high-quality education and the strategic focus on enhancing educational facilities to improve student learning environments [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Higher Education Sector - The education index increased by 1% during the week, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.8 percentage points [5]. - New Higher Education Group's student enrollment decreased slightly by 0.6% to 139,000, but the proportion of undergraduate students increased, contributing to an 8.1% rise in average tuition fees to 16,700 yuan per year [6][7]. - The company’s operational costs rose by 9.2% to 1.68 billion yuan, with significant increases in labor costs, which grew by 14.7% [3][7]. 2. Cost Management and Profitability - The peak of cost increases is believed to have passed, with capital expenditures decreasing from 920 million yuan in fiscal year 2024 to 690 million yuan in fiscal year 2025 [4][8]. - The report anticipates a recovery in gross profit margins starting from fiscal year 2026, with projected profits for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 adjusted to 880 million yuan and 1 billion yuan, respectively [8][11]. - Xijiao International Holdings reported a revenue of 3.96 billion yuan for fiscal year 2025, a 6.1% increase, while net profit decreased by 36.9% [9][10]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on Hong Kong-listed higher education companies, as profitability is expected to improve with reduced capital expenditures and a more favorable revenue distribution model [13]. - Companies such as New Higher Education Group, Xijiao International Holdings, and others are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their strategic adjustments and market positioning [13].

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of December 5, 2025, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 21.1 times and PB at 1.8 times, positioned at the historical 77% and 39% percentiles respectively [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 PE is at 11.9 times and PB at 1.3 times, at the historical 63% and 42% percentiles [2] - The CSI 300 PE is at 14 times and PB at 1.5 times, at the historical 62% and 32% percentiles [2] - The CSI 500 PE is at 32.4 times and PB at 2.2 times, at the historical 60% and 43% percentiles [2] - The CSI 1000 PE is at 46.5 times and PB at 2.4 times, at the historical 66% and 44% percentiles [2] - The National Index 2000 PE is at 59.5 times and PB at 2.6 times, at the historical 76% and 60% percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index PE is at 39.8 times and PB at 5.1 times, at the historical 32% and 57% percentiles [2] - The Sci-Tech 50 PE is at 149.6 times and PB at 5.9 times, at the historical 95% and 62% percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index/CSI 300 PE is at 2.8 times and PB at 3.5 times, at the historical 20% and 57% percentiles [2] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Retail, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2] - The Medical Services industry has both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2] Industry Sentiment Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, prices continue to show weakness, with upstream polysilicon futures down 1.6% and spot prices stable [3] - Battery materials like cobalt and nickel saw increases of 2.2% and 0.4% respectively, while lithium hexafluorophosphate rose by 3.0% [3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 1.8%, while iron ore prices fell by 0.3% [3] - The national cement price index decreased by 0.4%, and glass prices showed mixed trends with a 0.7% increase in spot prices [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 0.1%, while wholesale pork prices decreased by 0.8% [3] - The wholesale price index for liquor saw a slight decrease of 0.06% [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Excavator sales in November 2025 increased by 13.9% year-on-year, with domestic sales up by 9.1% [3] Technology TMT - China's semiconductor sales in October 2025 grew by 18.5% year-on-year, with global semiconductor sales up by 27.2% [3] Cyclical Industries - The copper price increased by 4.4%, while Brent crude oil futures rose by 1.1% to $63.86 per barrel [3]