Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2025 showed a revenue of 1.027 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.13%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.17%. The net profit for Q3 was 112 million yuan, down 9.15% year-on-year and 38.17% quarter-on-quarter. Overall performance met expectations [7] - The company is positioned as the sole investor in the restructuring of Xinjiang Shenhong Group, which is expected to optimize the industry landscape. The company plans to invest 200 million yuan to acquire 100% equity of the target company [7] - The company’s subsidiary project in Chongqing is expected to contribute significantly to future growth, with new production capacity for various products set to come online by 2027 [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 703 million yuan, 857 million yuan, and 1.010 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 24X, 20X, and 17X [6][7] - Total revenue is expected to grow from 4.461 billion yuan in 2025 to 5.051 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9.7% [6][9] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 31.0% in 2025 to 31.3% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the metals and new materials industry, highlighting strong performance in various sub-sectors [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the overall performance of the metals sector has outperformed the broader market, with the non-ferrous metals index rising by 75.90% year-to-date, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 57.96 percentage points [4][8]. - Key drivers for the sector include a favorable supply-demand balance, particularly in energy metals and lithium, which have seen significant price increases [3][8]. - The report suggests that the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may lead to upward adjustments in valuation multiples across the sector, particularly for companies with stable supply-demand dynamics [3][8]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.11%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.67%. The non-ferrous metals index increased by 2.56%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 2.99 percentage points [4][6]. - Precious metals saw a slight increase of 0.61%, while aluminum prices rose by 4.25%, and energy metals surged by 6.31% [3][8]. - Year-to-date performance shows significant gains across various metals, with copper up 96.09% and lithium carbonate prices increasing by 8.67% [8][12]. Price Changes and Key Company Valuations - The report details price changes for key metals, with copper prices at $10,888 per ton, reflecting a 24.17% increase year-on-year, while aluminum prices are reported at $21,300 per ton, up 7.68% year-on-year [13][15]. - The report provides valuations for key companies in the sector, indicating that companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold have favorable price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, suggesting potential for growth [15][16]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights that domestic social inventory of copper has increased slightly to 183,000 tons, while overall exchange inventories rose to 573,000 tons [22]. - The operating rates for copper processing facilities show a slight decline, indicating potential supply constraints in the near term [22][33]. - The aluminum sector is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with operating rates for downstream processing slightly decreasing [33]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with integrated operations and those showing cost improvement potential, such as China Aluminum and Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company [3][8]. - It also suggests monitoring companies in the renewable energy manufacturing sector, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing transition towards sustainable energy solutions [3][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shaanxi Coal Industry [6][17] Core Views - The company reported a significant improvement in performance in Q3 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter revenue increase of 6.03% despite a year-on-year decline of 20.91% [6] - The rise in coal prices is expected to positively impact the company's earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027, leading to an upward revision of profit estimates [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 169,913 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 7.7% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 18,222 million yuan in 2025, reflecting an 18.5% decrease year-on-year [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.88 yuan, down from 2.31 yuan in 2024 [2] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to be 29.7% in 2025, a decrease from 32.7% in 2024 [2] Market Data - As of October 31, 2025, the closing price of the stock was 22.70 yuan, with a market capitalization of 220,077 million yuan [3] - The stock has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12 for 2025, compared to an average of 15 for comparable companies [6][3] Operational Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company produced 13,037 million tons of coal, a 2.0% increase year-on-year, while sales volume rose by 1.8% to 11,938 million tons [6] - The average selling price of coal was 540 yuan per ton, down 13.0% year-on-year [6] - The company’s electricity sales volume in Q3 2025 increased significantly, with a year-on-year rise of 12.05% [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with a slight narrowing of price differentials during the traditional off-season, and asset impairment is expected to ease in the future [6] - The company reported a total revenue of 21.918 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.023 billion yuan, down 35% year-on-year [6] - The company is progressing well with its ongoing projects, which supports significant long-term development potential [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 30.78 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.4% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 1.499 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.1% year-on-year [5] - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 13.8% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 7.5% [5] - The company has adjusted its 2025 profit forecast downwards due to asset impairment, now expecting a net profit of 1.499 billion yuan compared to the previous estimate of 1.914 billion yuan [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for BYD, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights BYD's stable operations and long-term investment value, with a core expectation of expanding overseas [1]. - Despite a challenging domestic market, BYD's product strength and potential for global expansion are seen as key drivers for future growth [9]. - The report adjusts revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027, reflecting a more cautious outlook while maintaining a positive long-term view [9]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - For 2025, total revenue is projected at 870,123 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.0% [8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 36,724 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 8.8% year-on-year [8]. - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.1% for profits from 2025 to 2027, indicating strong growth potential despite short-term challenges [9]. Sales and Profitability - In Q3 2025, BYD's revenue was 194,985 million yuan, a decrease of 3.05% year-on-year, while net profit was 7,823 million yuan, down 32.60% year-on-year [9]. - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle in Q3 was approximately 137,000 yuan, showing a slight decline [9]. - The overall gross margin for Q3 was 17.6%, reflecting a recovery in profitability [9]. Overseas Expansion - BYD's overseas automotive revenue in the first half of 2025 reached 83.1 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 22.7 billion yuan, indicating strong international performance [9]. - The report emphasizes the potential for overseas operations to contribute significantly to profit growth in the next 2-3 years [9].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [38]. Core Insights - The animation micro-drama market is expected to experience explosive growth, with a projected market size surpassing 20 billion yuan. The market has seen a 12-fold increase in revenue over the past six months, driven by rising demand, technological advancements, and platform support [4][10]. - The current user demographic for micro-dramas is primarily young males in high-tier cities, contrasting with the female-dominated traditional short drama market. This demographic shift presents a unique competitive landscape [6][10]. - The industry is in its initial growth phase (1.0 stage), with future potential in IP derivatives and international expansion as the market matures [15][19]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The micro-drama market is characterized by a combination of short drama and traditional animation features, catering to user preferences for engaging, fragmented content. The market is expanding rapidly, with a compound growth rate of 83% in supply and significant increases in viewership and engagement metrics [10][15]. - The report identifies three main drivers for the market's growth: increasing demand for diverse content, significant technological breakthroughs in AI, and strong support from platforms with extensive IP libraries [4][5][10]. Industry Structure - The micro-drama industry value chain includes IP script acquisition, adaptation, production, distribution, and platform operation. The report emphasizes the need for content diversification and the involvement of various stakeholders to build a robust ecosystem [19][24]. - AI technology is revolutionizing the production process, reducing production cycles by 80-90% and costs by 70-90%, thus enabling a more efficient and scalable production model [24][27]. Key Players and Investment Targets - The report highlights several key companies to watch in the micro-drama space, including Mango TV, Bilibili, and Reading Group, along with companies involved in IP content, production, and distribution [28][31][34]. - Specific companies mentioned include Chinese Online, Zhi Cheng Co., and Huace Film & TV, which are actively engaging in the micro-drama ecosystem through various initiatives and collaborations [32][34].

2025 年 11 月 02 日 中银基金李思佳:在均衡稳健中追 求可持续可复制的成长性收益 基金经理研究系列报告之八十六 申万宏源研究微信服务号 证券分析师 白皓天 A0230525070001 baiht@swsresearch.com 奚佳诚 A0230523070004 xijc@swsresearch.com 蒋辛 A0230521080002 jiangxin@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 落子 (8621)23297818× jiangxin@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 中银基金李思佳: 剑桥大学金融硕士。具备 8年证券从业经验, 2 年投资管理年限。2017 ○ 年加入中银基金，曾任研究员、价值与周期组组长、基金经理助理。2023 年 10 月至今 任中银战略新兴产业的基金经理, 2025年 年 4 月至今任中银增长的基金经理,共计 2 只在 管基金，总管理规模达 20.58 亿元。 基金经理的投资策略：李思佳女士的投资风格相对均衡目稳健，在充分 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The company has shown revenue and profit growth, with total revenue for the first three quarters reaching 4.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 129 million yuan, up 15.1% year-on-year [6]. - The company is focusing on two main segments: display materials and application materials, with significant progress in both areas, including entering the supply chain of major clients like Samsung [6]. - The second phase of the UTG project has been optimized, with the full production date postponed to April 2026 to meet the increasing demands of the display industry [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 6.42 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 31.2% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 207 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant increase of 47.4% year-on-year [5]. - The company's gross margin is forecasted to improve gradually, reaching 19.2% by 2027 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huafeng Aluminum (601702) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of 9.1 billion yuan (yoy +18.6%) and net profit of 896 million yuan (yoy +3.2%) [6] - The company is focusing on product structure optimization and has introduced strategic new products to adapt to industry changes, maintaining a stable export ratio despite challenges [6] - Expansion plans for the Chongqing Phase II capacity are underway, which will enhance output and reduce costs [6] - The company is expected to benefit from increasing demand in related industries, maintaining profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections are 12.16 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 11.8% [5] - Net profit is forecasted at 1.33 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a 9.0% increase [5] - Earnings per share are expected to be 1.33 yuan for 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 13 [5] - The company aims for a net profit of 2.01 billion yuan by 2027, with a PE ratio of 9 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, particularly highlighting quality targets in gold, copper, and aluminum [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the metals sector has outperformed the broader market, with the non-ferrous metals index rising by 2.56% compared to a decline in the CSI 300 index [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on the precious metals market, suggesting a long-term upward trend in gold prices due to low domestic gold reserves in China and increasing central bank purchases [3][21]. - The report identifies specific companies to watch, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and others in the precious metals sector, as they are expected to benefit from the favorable market conditions [3][4]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.11%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.67%, and the CSI 300 fell by 0.43% [4]. - The non-ferrous metals index has increased by 75.90% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 by 57.96% [7]. Price Changes and Company Valuations - The report details price changes for various metals, noting that copper prices have seen a 24.17% increase year-to-date, while aluminum prices have risen by 13.03% [14]. - The report provides a comprehensive valuation table for key companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2023 to 2026 [18]. Precious Metals - The report highlights an increase in gold ETF holdings, indicating a growing confidence among investors in the precious metals market [21]. - The gold-silver ratio is noted to be at 81.9, suggesting potential for silver to catch up as demand recovers [22]. Industrial Metals - The report discusses the supply and demand dynamics for copper, noting a slight increase in domestic social inventory and a decrease in the copper treatment charge [27]. - For aluminum, the report indicates a slight decrease in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises, while the overall supply-demand balance remains tight [39][41]. Small Metals - The report mentions the tight supply conditions for cobalt due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the strong demand for lithium in the energy storage sector [3][4].