| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 4136 | 0.33 | 5.52 | 0.84 | | 深证综指 | 2746 | 1.2 | 10.1 | 2.21 | 拥抱 AI，抢跑复苏顺周期——2025Q4 被动和主动权益型公募 基金持股分析 ◼ 主动权益型基金行业配置特征：拥抱 AI，布局复苏。25Q4 主动权益型公 募基金增配科技制造（通信/汽车/机械）、周期（有色/化工/建材）、服务 消费（社服）及非银金融；减配传媒、计算机、军工、地产及医药等行业。 ◼ 风险提示：1）公募基金仅为市场资金的一部分，不具有全面代表性；2）基 金季报数据有时间滞后性；3）本文分析均以基金季报披露的前十大重仓股 为口径，与基金全部重仓股相比存在一定误差。 (联（联系人：林丽梅/郝丹阳/刘雅婧/冯彧/王胜) 美债恐慌重演，市场误读了什么？——"大财政"系列之二 ◼ 一、全球债市恐慌重演，美国上演"股债汇三杀"，特朗普再度 TACO ◼ 1 月 20 日，海外市场再度上演"股 ...

Group 1 - Market sentiment remains stable with a slight increase in the sentiment indicator to 2.35 as of January 23, up from 2.25 the previous week, indicating a neutral model perspective [2][9] - The consistency of price and volume remains high, reflecting strong market sentiment and a correlation between capital attention and stock price movements [3][16] - The trading volume of the entire A-share market decreased significantly by 19.22% week-on-week, with an average daily trading volume of 27,989.42 billion yuan [19] Group 2 - The sector score rankings show that non-ferrous metals, communications, national defense, comprehensive, and electronics industries are leading, with non-ferrous metals achieving the highest short-term score of 100.00 [45][46] - The model indicates a preference for small-cap and growth styles, with the 5-day RSI showing a decline relative to the 20-day RSI, suggesting potential weakening of signals [45][54] - The industry crowding indicator shows no significant correlation with weekly price changes, indicating that sectors like oil and gas, utilities, and media are experiencing notable gains despite high crowding [48][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the cosmetics and medical beauty industry, indicating strong performance compared to the market [2]. Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has outperformed the market recently, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index rising by 2.0% from January 16 to January 23, 2026, surpassing the Shenwan A Index by 0.8 percentage points [4][5]. - December 2025 saw a significant increase in social retail sales for cosmetics, reaching 38 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.8%, indicating robust demand even in the off-season. The overall growth rate for Q4 was 9.9%, significantly higher than the annual growth of 5.1% for 2025, driven by promotional events like Double 11 [10][17]. - The report anticipates continued high consumer demand in Q1 2026, supported by new product launches and regulatory approvals in the medical beauty sector [10]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has shown strong performance, with the Shenwan Cosmetics Index increasing by 2.6% and the Shenwan Personal Care Index rising by 4.2%, both outperforming the Shenwan A Index [4][5]. Key Company Reviews - Lin Qingxuan (2657HK) is highlighted as a benchmark in the high-end domestic skincare market, with revenue projected to grow from 690 million yuan in 2022 to 1.21 billion yuan in 2024, representing a CAGR of 32.7%. The company is expected to turn a profit of 187 million yuan in 2024, a 120% increase year-on-year [11][12]. - Langzi Co., Ltd. (002612.SZ) forecasts a net profit of 900 million to 1.05 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 245.25% to 302.80% [4]. - Qingsong Co., Ltd. (300132.SZ) anticipates a net profit of 130 million to 165 million yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 137.73% to 201.74% [4]. Market Trends - The report notes that the high-end skincare market is expanding, with the market size expected to reach 218.5 billion yuan by 2029. The concept of "oil-based skincare" is becoming mainstream, driving growth in the facial oil segment, which is projected to grow at a CAGR of 42.8% from 2019 to 2024 [12][14]. - E-commerce channels are increasingly important, with Lin Qingxuan achieving a 65.4% online revenue share in H1 2025, leveraging platforms like Douyin and Tmall for growth [13]. Sales Data - In December 2025, the total retail sales of cosmetics reached 38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%. The overall retail sales for cosmetics in 2025 were 465.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.1% increase [17][21].

Group 1: Quantum Technology - The report highlights significant advancements in quantum error correction technology, with Zhejiang University and Tsinghua University demonstrating low-overhead quantum error correction codes, effectively reducing logical error rates below physical error rates [4][5] - Horizon Quantum Computing has formed a strategic partnership with Alice&Bob to accelerate the development of fault-tolerant quantum computing, integrating their software and hardware capabilities [5] - GuoDun Quantum plans to sign a technology licensing contract with the University of Science and Technology of China, involving quantum random number generators and superconducting quantum computing control systems [6][7] Group 2: Biomanufacturing - The Chinese Academy of Sciences has achieved a breakthrough in synthesizing L-arginine using methanol as the sole carbon source, marking a shift towards non-grain-based production methods [8][9] - The Shenzhen Advanced Institute has developed the MARS intelligent system, which integrates multiple AI agents and robots to significantly shorten the new material development cycle from four months to four hours [9][10] - Jinbo Biological has registered a 2 billion yuan private placement to enhance its humanized collagen protein FAST database project, aiming to improve research and development efficiency [11] Group 3: Hydrogen Energy and Nuclear Fusion - The Baowu Clean Energy green hydrogen industrial park project, with a total investment of 11.09 billion yuan, has been launched in Guangdong, establishing a new model for offshore wind power direct hydrogen production [12][13] - A Chinese consortium has signed a significant contract for the ITER edge local model power supply system, marking a major step in China's contribution to global fusion energy projects [15] - Zhejiang Fu Nuclear Power will participate in the development of core components for the China Fusion Engineering Demonstration Reactor (CFEDR), focusing on ultra-high heat load components [16][17] Group 4: Brain-Computer Interfaces - Neuralink has successfully implemented OTA wireless upgrades for its invasive brain-computer interface, allowing for performance optimization without the need for additional surgeries [18][19] - This advancement addresses the traditional limitations of invasive devices, reducing clinical maintenance risks and costs while enhancing the adaptability of the technology [20] Group 5: Embodied Intelligence - World Labs, founded by Fei-Fei Li, has partnered with Guanglun Intelligent to create an evaluation system for embodied intelligence, addressing high verification costs and discrepancies between simulation and reality [21][22] - The Marble model developed by World Labs generates high-fidelity 3D environments from various inputs, solving traditional model issues but lacking physical interaction capabilities [22][23] Group 6: Future Industry Catalysts - The report outlines key catalytic events for 2026 across six future industries, including significant conferences and technological milestones that investors should monitor [28][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment for renewable energy and gas companies [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slight increase in overall power generation in 2025, primarily driven by wind and solar energy contributions, while traditional coal power generation shows a decline [8][9]. - The extreme cold weather in the U.S. has led to a significant spike in natural gas prices due to increased demand and supply constraints [18][22]. - The report suggests various investment opportunities across different segments of the energy sector, including coal power, hydropower, nuclear power, renewable energy, and gas companies [18][43]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Generation - In December 2025, total power generation was 858.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%. Coal power generation decreased by 3.2%, while renewable sources like wind and solar saw significant growth [10][11]. - For the entire year of 2025, total power generation reached 9715.9 billion kWh, up 2.2% from the previous year, with coal power down by 1.0% and solar power up by 24.4% [15][19]. 2. Natural Gas - As of January 23, 2026, the Henry Hub spot price surged to $30.72/mmBtu, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 903.53%. European gas prices also rose significantly due to low inventory levels and increased demand [20][28]. - The report notes that the extreme cold weather has tightened supply and demand dynamics, leading to higher global gas prices, particularly in Europe and Northeast Asia [22][37]. 3. Investment Recommendations - For coal power, companies like Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian are recommended due to their integrated coal and power operations [18]. - Hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation are favored due to favorable conditions for energy storage and reduced capital expenditures [19]. - Nuclear power companies like China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are highlighted for their stable cost structures and growth potential [18]. - Renewable energy operators such as Xinte Energy and Longyuan Power are recommended as new market rules enhance the stability of returns [18]. - Gas companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Liuhe are suggested for their potential recovery in profitability due to cost reductions and improved pricing mechanisms [43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious" investment rating for the pharmaceutical sector, highlighting the need to focus on specific investment opportunities within the CXO segment and AI pharmaceutical developments [2]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is currently experiencing a mixed performance, with the Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Index down by 0.4% this week, ranking 27th among 31 Shenwan primary sub-industries [3][5]. - The overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector stands at 30.3 times earnings, placing it 12th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [5]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing transformation of the pharmaceutical retail industry towards comprehensive health services, driven by a joint opinion from nine government departments [13][14]. - New drug development remains active, with significant advancements such as the NDA acceptance for Bai Li Tianheng's EGFR×HER3 dual antibody ADC and Moderna's personalized mRNA cancer vaccine showing promising results [15][16]. Market Performance - The Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Index decreased by 0.4%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.84% [3]. - Among the secondary sectors, the performance varied, with raw materials (+2.4%) and offline pharmacies (+9.7%) showing positive growth, while medical research outsourcing (-4.0%) and chemical preparations (-1.7%) faced declines [5][12]. Industry Dynamics - By the end of 2025, China's total population is projected to be approximately 1.40489 billion, with a birth rate of 7.92 million, indicating a slight decrease in population compared to the previous year [12]. - The pharmaceutical retail industry is undergoing a critical transformation, with a focus on enhancing pharmacy services and optimizing industry structure [13][14]. - The report outlines five key measures to promote high-quality development in the pharmaceutical retail sector, including improving pharmacy service capabilities and enhancing emergency service functions [14]. Company Developments - Bai Li Tianheng's NDA for the EGFR×HER3 dual antibody ADC has been accepted, targeting esophageal squamous cell carcinoma [15]. - Moderna's personalized mRNA cancer vaccine has shown a 49% reduction in recurrence or death risk compared to monotherapy with Keytruda [16]. - The launch of Insilico Medicine's large language model training framework aims to enhance drug discovery capabilities significantly [16]. Financing Dynamics - OpenEvidence, an AI medical platform, successfully raised $250 million in Series D funding, achieving a post-money valuation of $12 billion [22]. - Qixing Pharmaceuticals completed a $287 million D1 round of financing to advance its clinical pipeline for cardiovascular and metabolic diseases [22]. Performance Forecasts - Several companies in the pharmaceutical sector have released optimistic earnings forecasts for 2025, indicating a clear industry trend [2]. - Notable companies to watch include WuXi AppTec, Kanglong Chemical, and Tigermed, among others, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing industry developments [2].

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 市场数据： | 2026 年 01 月 23 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 7.44 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 8.76/6.21 | | 市净率 | 6.5 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 5.11 | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 01-23 02-23 03-23 04-23 05-23 06-23 07-23 08-23 09-23 10-23 11-23 12-23 01-23 分众传媒 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.com 联系人 上证指数/深证成指 4,136.16/14,439.66 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 1.14 | | 资产 ...

Global Market Overview - During the period from January 16 to January 23, 2026, geopolitical conflicts intensified, leading to an increase in precious metals, with gold rising by 8.3%[6] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained at 4.2%, while the U.S. dollar index decreased by 1.88%[6] Asset Performance During RMB Appreciation - Since 2000, the RMB has experienced 6 rounds of appreciation and 4 rounds of depreciation, influenced by currency reforms and global trade cycles[8] - During RMB appreciation, stocks generally showed higher stability, with the ChiNext outperforming the CSI 300, except in 2017[10] - In the bond market, the national debt index recorded negative returns during appreciation periods in 2017, 2023, and 2025, while other periods showed positive returns[10] Fund Flows - As of January 21, 2026, both domestic and foreign capital flowed into the Chinese stock market, with foreign active funds inflowing $3.38 billion and passive funds inflowing $16.65 billion[3] - Domestic capital saw an outflow of $493.17 billion, while foreign capital inflow totaled $20.03 billion in the same week[3] Valuation Metrics - As of January 23, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index's valuation exceeded that of the KOSPI 200, CAC 40, and S&P 500, reaching 92.9% of its 10-year historical average[3] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite remains relatively high, indicating good allocation value compared to global markets[3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. inflation rate, as measured by the PCE index, has remained low, indicating economic cooling[5] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75% is 95.60%, stable compared to the previous week[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance sector, particularly recommending leading companies with low valuations, high dividends, and stable growth potential [2][3]. Core Insights - The home appliance industry is experiencing a decline in sales across both air conditioning and kitchen appliances, with significant drops in both online and offline retail volumes [33][34]. - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1. **Dividend**: Leading white and black appliance companies are characterized by low valuations, high dividends, and stable growth, providing a high margin of safety and elasticity in stock prices. The domestic market is expected to remain stable due to the continued effects of the trade-in policy, while export opportunities are bolstered by global production base layouts and strong demand in emerging markets [2][3]. 2. **Technology**: Core component manufacturers are diversifying into emerging tech fields such as robotics and data center temperature control, seeking cross-industry transformation [2][3]. 3. **Demand Recovery**: The report anticipates a recovery in external demand and sustained high demand for new products in the domestic market, particularly for robotic vacuum cleaners [2][3]. Summary by Sections Sales Data - Air conditioning sales saw a significant decline in December 2025, with online retail volume down 38.5% year-on-year and offline retail volume down 42.9%. The average price for online sales decreased by 4.2% to 2981 RMB per unit, while offline prices fell by 20.1% to 3801 RMB per unit [33]. - Kitchen appliances also faced declines, with online sales of range hoods down 16.8% and dishwashers down 10.2% year-on-year. The average price for online range hoods increased by 14.4% to 1739 RMB per unit, while offline prices decreased by 14.4% to 3813 RMB per unit [34][38]. Company Dynamics - Major companies such as Haier, Midea, and Gree are recommended for their current low valuations and strong dividend yields. The report also highlights the potential of companies like Dong'an Environment and Huaxiang Co. in emerging tech sectors [2][3]. - The report notes that the home appliance sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, with companies like Aojiahua and Hisense leading in stock performance [5][8]. Industry Trends - The report indicates that raw material prices for copper and aluminum have risen, with copper prices up 34.79% year-on-year and aluminum prices up 19.36% year-on-year as of January 23, 2026 [12]. - The report also mentions that the sales of rotary compressors decreased by 13.6% year-on-year, while refrigerator compressor sales increased by 7.2% [27][28]. Economic Environment - As of January 23, 2026, the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Chinese yuan has decreased by 0.51% since the beginning of the year [42]. - The report highlights a decline in the sales area of commercial housing, with residential existing homes down 6.33% and new homes down 24.55% year-on-year [44].

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of January 23, 2026, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 22.7x and PB at 1.9x, positioned at the historical 83rd and 52nd percentiles respectively [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 PE is at 11.5x and PB at 1.3x, at the historical 58th and 36th percentiles [2] - The CSI 300 PE is at 14.1x and PB at 1.5x, at the historical 63rd and 37th percentiles [2] - The CSI 500 PE is at 38.9x and PB at 2.7x, at the historical 71st and 63rd percentiles [2] - The CSI 1000 PE is at 51.5x and PB at 2.7x, at the historical 74th and 61st percentiles [2] - The National Index 2000 PE is at 64.1x and PB at 3.0x, at the historical 79th and 71st percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index PE is at 43.0x and PB at 5.8x, at the historical 42nd and 68th percentiles [2] - The Sci-Tech 50 PE is at 180.4x and PB at 6.9x, at the historical 98th and 83rd percentiles [2] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Automation Equipment, Retail, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, Electronics (Semiconductors), and IT Services [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Defense and Military, Electronics (Semiconductors), and Communications [2] - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile include Aquaculture and White Goods [2] Industry Sentiment Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, downstream spot prices continue to rise, while upstream polysilicon futures prices fell by 10.8% [2] - Battery materials show mixed trends, with cobalt prices down by 3.7% and lithium carbonate prices up by 9.8% [2] Technology TMT - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 0.4%, and the Taiwan Semiconductor Index increased by 2.3% [3] - The DRAM price index increased by 3.0%, while NAND prices surged by 10.8% [3] Real Estate Chain - The average price of rebar fell by 1.3%, while iron ore prices decreased by 2.2% [3] - National commercial housing sales area decreased by 8.7% year-on-year, with real estate development investment down by 17.2% [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 1.5%, while pork wholesale prices rose by 2.1% [3] - Retail sales growth for 2025 is projected at 3.7%, with December's growth at 0.9%, below expectations [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment grew by 0.6% year-on-year, while narrow infrastructure investment fell by 2.2% [3] - Heavy truck sales increased by 13.0% year-on-year in December, with a total annual growth of approximately 26% [3] Cyclical Industries - Brent crude oil futures closed up by 3.2% at $66.23 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions [3] - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 12.4%, indicating increased shipping demand [3]