Market Overview - The US 10-year Treasury yield decreased to 4.14%, down 2 basis points, while the US dollar index fell by 0.69% to 98.0[3] - The A-share market saw all indices rise, with the ChiNext Index, CSI 1000, and STAR 50 leading the gains[3] - Gold prices increased by 4.24% this week, driven by a short squeeze in silver, leading precious metals to outperform global assets[3] Capital Flows - In the week ending December 24, 2025, foreign capital inflows into the Chinese stock market totaled $12.6 billion, while domestic capital inflows reached $71.32 billion[3] - The US stock market saw a significant inflow of $222.6 billion into fixed income funds, while Chinese equity markets attracted $83.9 billion[16] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is at the 87.5th percentile over the past decade, trailing only the S&P 500 and CAC 40[3] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for A-shares slightly decreased but remains at a historically neutral level[15] Risk Sentiment - The implied volatility of the CSI 300 index has shown a low recovery, indicating a more optimistic pricing of volatility compared to the previous week[3] - The put-call ratio for the S&P 500 increased to 1.08, reflecting a slight rise in bearish sentiment[3] Economic Data - The US consumer confidence index fell significantly to 51.0, indicating a cooling economy[3] - The probability of a Fed rate cut in January 2026 increased to 82.3%, up from 77.9% the previous week[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3]. Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, particularly in core cities, with policies aimed at boosting demand and optimizing supply [3][28]. - Two significant opportunities are identified: the rise of favorable housing policies and the strong performance of quality commercial enterprises during a monetary easing cycle [3]. - The report recommends several companies across different categories, including commercial real estate, quality housing companies, undervalued firms, property management, and second-hand housing intermediaries [3]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transaction Volume - In the week of December 20-26, 2025, 34 key cities recorded a total new housing transaction volume of 3.63 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 17.3% [4]. - Year-on-year, December's transaction volume in these cities decreased by 29%, with first and second-tier cities down by 28.4% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 35.7% [6][7]. Second-Hand Housing Transaction Volume - In the same week, 13 key cities saw a total second-hand housing transaction volume of 1.22 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 2.4% [11]. - Year-to-date, the total transaction volume is down by 3.1% compared to the previous year [11]. New Housing Inventory - In the week of December 20-26, 2025, 15 key cities had a total of 1.29 million square meters of new housing launched, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.79 [22]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 90.67 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.3% [22]. Policy and News Tracking Real Estate Industry - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has emphasized city-specific policies to stabilize the real estate market, with measures including inventory reduction and support for reasonable demand [28]. - Recent policy adjustments in Beijing include relaxing purchase restrictions and optimizing credit conditions for homebuyers [28][29]. Company Dynamics - Poly Developments has received approval for a convertible bond issuance of up to 5 billion yuan [35]. - China Jinmao successfully sold its 100% stake in the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Sanya for 2.26 billion yuan [36]. Sector Performance Review - The SW Real Estate Index rose by 1.91%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which increased by 1.95% [42]. - The report highlights the performance of individual stocks within the real estate sector, noting both top gainers and laggards [42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-bank financial industry [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery in the securities sector, with a projected increase in December performance driven by improved investment returns and a rise in equity financing [4][7] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from the clarification of income tax treatment under IFRS17, enhancing profit predictability for insurers [4][11] - The report emphasizes the growth of ETFs, which have surpassed 6 trillion yuan in total assets, indicating a strong trend in the investment landscape [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,657.24, with a weekly increase of 1.95%, while the non-bank index rose by 2.09% [7] - The securities, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported increases of 1.58%, 2.97%, and 2.66% respectively [7] Securities Industry Insights - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market for December is estimated at 1.84 trillion yuan, with a 5% decrease month-on-month [4] - The margin financing balance reached 2.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3% increase [4] - Equity financing in December totaled 508.4 billion yuan, a 72% increase from the previous month [4] Insurance Industry Insights - The report notes that the implementation of IFRS17 will standardize income tax calculations for insurers starting in 2026, which is expected to improve profit visibility [4][11] - The insurance sector index rose by 2.97%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.02 percentage points [4] Investment Recommendations - For the securities sector, the report recommends focusing on leading firms with strong competitive positions, such as Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities, as well as firms with significant earnings elasticity like Huatai Securities [4] - In the insurance sector, the report suggests investing in major players like China Life and Ping An, highlighting their systemic value re-evaluation opportunities [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [15]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector has shown weaker performance compared to the overall market, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 0.6%, lagging behind the SW All A index by 2.2 percentage points [3][4]. - The report highlights that the retail and wholesale sales of the company for FY26 Q3 have shown a high single-digit decline year-on-year, which aligns with expectations, while inventory levels remain healthy [10][13]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in domestic demand throughout 2026, with specific focus on high-performance outdoor apparel and discount retail segments [9][12]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - The report recommends focusing on the Australian wool price cycle and the growth of non-woven fabrics, with a projected wool production of 244,700 tons for the 25/26 fiscal year, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year [9]. - The demand side is expected to improve as downstream brands and manufacturers reduce inventory levels, leading to a replenishment demand [9]. - Companies like New Australia and Nobon are highlighted as beneficiaries of the rising wool prices and the growth in non-woven fabric products [9]. Apparel Sector - The company, Tabo, reported stable operational indicators for FY26 Q3, with a focus on improving retail capabilities and inventory management, while demand recovery is still awaited [10][11]. - Nike is expected to enhance product innovation and retail capabilities, with a cautious approach to inventory management for 2026, which is anticipated to positively impact the industry [11][14]. - The report suggests positioning in Bosideng for the winter season, as favorable weather conditions are expected to boost sales, alongside a potential recovery in the women's apparel segment [12][15]. Industry Data - From January to November, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles reached 1,359.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [25]. - In November, textile and apparel exports amounted to 23.87 billion USD, showing a year-on-year decline of 5.2%, with apparel exports down by 10.9% [32]. - Cotton prices have seen an increase, with the national cotton price index reported at 15,457 yuan per ton, up by 2.2% [33].

信任命 2025 年 12 月 28 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 quozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 quozy@swsresearch.com 会属价格强势突破,看好春季行情 金属&新材料行业周报 20251222-20251226 本期投资提示: 我研究报 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 波段人分出品 申万宏源研究微信服务号 o 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 1.88%，深证成指上涨 3.53%，沪深 300 上涨 1.95%，有色金属（申 万) 指数上涨 6.43%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.48 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属上涨 4.06%，铝上涨 6.33%， 能源金属上涨 6.66%，小金属上涨 6.16%，铜上涨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, particularly highlighting the potential recovery of Nike and its impact on the supply chain [17]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector has underperformed the market recently, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 0.6%, lagging behind the SW All A index by 2.2 percentage points [3][4]. - Retail sales in the apparel and textile categories showed a total of 1.36 trillion yuan from January to November, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [3][34]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing price increase in Australian wool, with a significant year-on-year rise of 39.9% [39]. - The operational metrics for Tmall in FY26 Q3 were stable, with inventory levels remaining healthy, although demand recovery is still awaited [10][14]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - The textile manufacturing sector is recommended for investment, particularly focusing on the Australian wool price cycle and non-woven fabric growth. The supply side is expected to contract, with a forecasted wool production of 244,700 tons for the 25/26 fiscal year, down 12.6% year-on-year [9]. - New Australia Holdings is highlighted as a key beneficiary of the rising wool prices, with significant growth potential anticipated in Q4 2025 [9]. - Non-woven fabric companies like Nobon and Yanjing are also recommended due to their strong market positions and growth prospects in the hygiene product segment [9]. Apparel Sector - The report notes that Tmall's operational indicators for FY26 Q3 were in line with expectations, with retail and wholesale sales experiencing a high single-digit decline year-on-year. However, inventory levels are healthy, and discount rates are stabilizing [10][14]. - Nike is focusing on product innovation and retail capability enhancement, with expectations for recovery in 2026 as inventory issues are addressed [12][16]. - The report suggests positioning in Bosideng for the winter apparel segment, citing favorable conditions due to recent cold weather and an extended sales window leading up to the Spring Festival [13]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the textile and apparel sector's performance is influenced by broader market trends, with a noted decline in exports, particularly in apparel, which fell by 10.9% year-on-year in November [34]. - The report also highlights the competitive landscape, with a focus on the global tariff dynamics that do not alter the core manufacturing competitiveness [9].

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 2025 年 12 月 28 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 金属价格强势突破，看好春季行情 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251222-20251226 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 1.88%，深证成指上涨 3.53%，沪深 300 上涨 1.95%，有色金属（申 万）指数上涨 6.43%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.48 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属上 ...

2025 年 12 月 28 日 相关研究 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 中央企业负责人会议召开,推进央企战略性、 专业化重组整合和高质量并购 ──申万宏源建筑周报（20251222-20251226） 本期投资后了 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW建筑装饰指数+2.26%，沪深 300 指 0 数+1.95%，相对收益为 0.31pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为装饰 幕墙 (+7.14%)、专业工程 (+6.11%)、国际工程 (+3.52%)，对应行 业内三个公司: 海南发展 (+56.46%)、上海港湾 (+44.35%)、中铝国 际 (+19.28%); 年涨幅最大的三个子行业分别是生态园林 (+54.66%)、专业工 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4][31]. Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with new home sales in 34 key cities increasing by 17.3% week-on-week, and a notable policy shift in Beijing to relax purchase restrictions [4][31]. - The report identifies two major opportunities: the rise of favorable housing policies and the strong performance of quality commercial enterprises during a monetary easing cycle, which could lead to a revaluation of consumer-oriented commercial real estate assets [4][31]. Industry Data Summary New Home Sales - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 3.63 million square meters, up 17.3% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 19.9% increase, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 13.6% decline [5][7]. - Year-on-year, December sales in 34 cities dropped by 29%, with first and second-tier cities down 28.4% and third and fourth-tier cities down 35.7% [7][8]. Second-Hand Home Sales - Second-hand home sales in 13 key cities reached 1.22 million square meters, a 2.4% increase week-on-week, but down 31.2% year-on-year [12][24]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities increased by 0.3% to 90.67 million square meters, with a month’s supply of 22.7 months, reflecting a slight increase [24][31]. Policy and News Tracking Macro Policies - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has emphasized city-specific policies to stabilize the real estate market, with measures to control supply and reduce inventory [31][34]. - Beijing has announced adjustments to purchase restrictions, including reduced social security or tax requirements for non-local families and optimized credit policies [31][34]. Company Developments - Poly Real Estate has received approval to issue 5 billion yuan in convertible bonds, while Vanke has extended the grace period for a 2 billion yuan medium-term note [39][40]. - China Jinmao successfully sold its 100% stake in the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Sanya for 2.26 billion yuan [40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the shipping sector, particularly highlighting potential opportunities in ST Songfa, China Shipbuilding, and China Power [5]. Core Insights - The shipping sector is expected to see a strong start in 2026, driven by improved new ship orders and the launch of shipping industry index funds. The report anticipates a rebound in freight rates post the Christmas season, with a potential early trading opportunity for the oil and bulk shipping sectors ahead of the Spring Festival [5]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the logistics and transportation sectors, with specific attention to the performance of various sub-sectors, including air transport and express delivery, which are poised for significant growth due to supply constraints and increasing demand [5][6]. Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - New ship orders have improved since October, and the shipping industry index fund launch is expected to boost the sector in 2026. The report recommends focusing on ST Songfa, China Shipbuilding, and China Power [5]. - The report notes that the overall oil and bulk freight rates exceeded expectations in Q4, with specific recommendations for China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [5]. Air Transport - The report highlights the unprecedented challenges in the aircraft manufacturing supply chain and the aging fleet, which are expected to constrain supply. However, the rising passenger volume and the allocation of more capacity to international routes are anticipated to enhance airline profitability [5]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined: price recovery leading to profit restoration, continued competitive pressure in certain regions, and potential mergers and acquisitions for supply-side optimization. Recommended companies include Shentong Express, YTO Express, and ZTO Express [5]. Road and Rail Transport - The report indicates that railway freight volumes and highway truck traffic are showing resilience, with steady growth expected. Data from the Ministry of Transport shows a slight decrease in railway freight but an increase in highway truck traffic [5]. Market Performance - The transportation index rose by 1.37%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 1.95%. The raw material supply chain services sector saw the highest increase at 6.57%, while the air transport sector experienced a decline of 0.75% [6].