Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry, highlighting a recovery in PX supply-demand dynamics and PTA profitability restoration [3][5]. Core Insights - The PX market is expected to see a tightening supply-demand balance, with a recovery in operating rates from 78% in 2023 to over 85% as downstream PTA production ramps up in 2024-2025. This is anticipated to lead to a significant improvement in market conditions [5][6]. - PTA production capacity in China is projected to increase from 46.08 million tons in 2018 to 86.02 million tons by 2024, accounting for 75% of global capacity. The report indicates that there will be no new capacity additions post-2026, leading to a collaborative reduction phase in the industry [13][19]. - The upstream oil sector is experiencing rising oil prices, with Brent crude futures closing at $60.64 per barrel, reflecting a 0.28% increase week-on-week. This is expected to support the profitability of refining companies [5][26]. - The polyester sector is showing mixed performance, with PTA profitability increasing while polyester filament profits are declining. The report emphasizes the need to monitor demand changes closely [19]. Summary by Sections PX Market - PX supply-demand is tightening, with a forecasted increase in operating rates to over 85% due to no new capacity additions and seasonal maintenance in early 2026 [5][6]. - The report notes that the PX price has risen to $878.87 per ton, a week-on-week increase of 5.61% [19]. PTA Market - PTA production capacity is expected to reach 71.14 million tons in 2024, a 13% year-on-year increase. The report anticipates a collaborative reduction phase starting in 2026 due to no new capacity additions [13][19]. - PTA prices have shifted from a downward trend to an upward trend, with current prices in East China averaging 4,936 RMB per ton, reflecting a 6.94% increase week-on-week [19]. Upstream Oil Sector - Brent crude oil prices have increased, with a weekly average price of $61.91 per barrel, indicating a positive trend for upstream oil companies [5][26]. - The report highlights a decrease in the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S., with 545 rigs reported, a decrease of 44 year-on-year, suggesting a potential impact on future oil supply [41]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical due to expected improvements in profitability [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, rating it as "Overweight" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that cold air impacts are still present, and with cost support, supply is expected to tighten, leading to a stabilization of coal prices. The demand side is supported by increased consumption due to cold weather, while supply may decrease as some coal mines reduce production after meeting annual targets [1][3]. - The report provides specific price data for thermal coal and coking coal, indicating a slight decline in prices but a stable outlook due to seasonal demand and supply constraints [1][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of safety regulations and monitoring, especially with recent mining accidents, which may further tighten supply [1][3]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued new rules for the electricity market to adapt to changes in the energy system and market participants [7]. - New coal transportation infrastructure in Xinjiang aims to enhance efficiency and support green energy initiatives [7]. Price Trends - As of December 26, 2025, thermal coal prices at Qinhuangdao port were reported at 486, 576, and 672 CNY/ton for different grades, showing a week-on-week decline [1][8]. - Coking coal prices remained stable, with specific prices reported for various regions [1][11]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Daily coal consumption has increased, while power plant inventories have decreased, indicating a tightening supply situation [3][20]. - The report notes that the average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports decreased, while outflow increased, leading to a rise in port inventories [20]. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices increased slightly, which may influence coal pricing dynamics [15]. Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, providing insights into their market performance and earnings projections [32].

Electronic and 2025 年 12 月 28 日 看好 相关研究 《保险公司资产负债管理即将迈入全新阶 -非银金融行业周报 (2025/12/15- EG --- 2025/12/19)》 2025/12/21 《头部非银机构监管红利有望释放 -- 非 银金融行业周报 (2025/12/8- 2025/12/12)》 2025/12/14 《券商板块信心提振，补涨逻辑有望逐步 兑现 -- 非银金融行业周报 (2025/12/1- 2025/12/5)》 2025/12/07 《高弹性标签助力板块"破圈"，看好资负 两端改善趋势 ——2026 年保险行业策略 报告》 2025/11/18 《证券行业 2026 年投资策略:权益浪潮 下的券商机遇：财富扩容,国际增效》 2025/11/17 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjg@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh ...

Group 1 - The market sentiment is positive, with the North Exchange 50 Index rising by 1.19% and a total of 76 stocks increasing in value, while 209 stocks declined, resulting in a rise-fall ratio of 0.36 [2][8][30] - Key market themes include commercial aerospace, Hainan's "closure" theme, liquid cooling, rising lithium battery material prices, and record copper prices, indicating active thematic investments in future industries such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, and nuclear fusion [8][9][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of timing in thematic investments, particularly in the context of the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" and suggests focusing on North Exchange stocks related to future industries [9][10] Group 2 - The North Exchange's new stock quality is expected to improve, with attention on changes in new stock allocation policies for 2026 and upcoming listings, including Wei Dongguang [10][21][27] - This week, one new stock, Jiangtian Technology, was listed with a first-day increase of 180.58%, bringing the total number of listed companies on the North Exchange to 287 [21][27] - The report highlights the potential for significant returns from low-valuation stocks such as Tongli Co., KAIT Co., and others, as new funds are expected to return in early 2026 [10][12][40]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - ByteDance's AI collaboration for the Spring Festival Gala is expected to significantly enhance user engagement, with Doubao's daily active users surpassing 100 million. This milestone is anticipated to drive commercialization in AI applications in 2026, prompting major internet companies to accelerate their investments and strategies [2]. - Key companies highlighted include Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu, with a focus on their AI product developments and market strategies. Tencent is restructuring its AI framework to enhance model development, while Alibaba is expanding its AI applications in consumer and enterprise sectors [2]. - The report emphasizes the upcoming peak consumption season in gaming and video content, with significant releases expected to drive user engagement and revenue growth [2]. Summary by Sections AI Developments - ByteDance's Doubao has achieved over 100 million daily active users, with plans for monetization through e-commerce and advertising [2]. - Tencent is reorganizing its AI departments to boost research and development, while Alibaba is focusing on AI applications in cloud services and consumer health [2]. Gaming and Entertainment - The report identifies key gaming titles for the upcoming Spring Festival, including Giant Network's "Supernatural Action Group" and Tencent's "Delta Force," which are expected to perform well during the peak season [2]. - The animation "Chinese Folktales 2" is set to premiere exclusively on Bilibili, highlighting the growing importance of video platforms in content distribution [2]. Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating projected revenue growth and profit margins for firms like Tencent, Alibaba, and Bilibili, with Tencent's market cap at approximately 49.895 billion RMB and expected revenue growth of 14% in 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" investment rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 3.874 billion and 4.649 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 25% to 50%. The fourth quarter of 2025 is projected to yield a net profit of 632 million to 1.406 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -20.8% to +76.4% [7]. - The company is expected to continue solidifying its leading position in the refrigeration and air conditioning components sector while leveraging its advanced technology and production scale to drive growth. Additionally, the company is expanding its automotive components business through its established market presence in the global electric vehicle thermal management sector [7]. - The report indicates an upward revision of profit forecasts, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 being 4.253 billion, 4.650 billion, and 5.099 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 37%, 9%, and 10% [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 31.913 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.253 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 37.2% [6]. - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to improve slightly from 28.1% in 2024 to 28.6% in 2027, while the return on equity (ROE) is expected to stabilize around 12.9% to 13.3% over the same period [6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.84 yuan in 2024 to 1.21 yuan in 2027 [6].

Core Viewpoints - The bond market is currently under pressure due to fundamental challenges and a loose monetary environment, with concerns about supply-demand mismatches being a primary issue. However, there is an expectation for a temporary alleviation of these pressures in Q1 2026, leading to a potential downward trend in bond yields, possibly reaching a low for the year [4][8] - The market is characterized by a "strong expectation but weak reality" scenario, where economic performance is not aligning with financial market optimism. Despite a strong equity market, the underlying economic fundamentals remain weak, which could provide support for the bond market as expectations adjust [10] - The coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is expected to strengthen, with fiscal measures likely taking the lead and monetary policy providing support. This collaboration is crucial for maintaining a stable bond market environment [17][18] Group 1: Market Support Factors - **Support Factor One: Strong Expectation, Weak Reality** The economic performance is currently low, with insufficient effective demand impacting production. Historical trends show that equity market uptrends are usually linked to fundamental improvements, but this time, the equity market is rising despite ongoing downward pressures on the economy [10][11] - **Support Factor Two: Monetary and Fiscal Coordination** The fiscal policy is expected to be the main driver, with monetary policy acting in support. The issuance of government bonds is anticipated to be front-loaded in Q1 2026, with a focus on longer maturities, which will require careful coordination with monetary policy [17][18] - **Support Factor Three: Anticipation of Monetary Easing** There is an expectation for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in Q1 2026, which could lead to a favorable environment for bond yields to decline. Historical patterns suggest that such easing typically occurs at least once a year [26][27] Group 2: Investment Strategy - **Investment Strategy: Combination of Short-Medium Term Credit Bonds and Long-Term Rate Bonds** A "barbell" strategy combining short to medium-term credit bonds with long-term rate bonds is recommended. Historical data indicates that a 10 basis point decline in the 10-year government bond yield is likely, which would favor long-term bonds despite their higher volatility [30][31] - **Perspective One: Historical Experience Reference** Based on historical data, the 10-year government bond yield is expected to decrease by approximately 10 basis points in Q1 2026, with long-term bonds showing strong performance but higher volatility compared to short to medium-term credit bonds [30][31] - **Perspective Two: Scenario Hypothesis Simulation** Assuming a 10 basis point decline in the 10-year government bond yield, the total returns for long-term bonds are expected to outperform, although they are less resilient to rising interest rates. In contrast, short to medium-term credit bonds are projected to provide better total returns with a stronger safety cushion [39][40]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the shipping sector, expecting a strong start in 2026, particularly for companies like ST Song, China Shipbuilding, and China Power [5]. Core Insights - The shipping industry has seen improvements in new ship orders and pricing since October, with expectations for a strong performance in 2026. The report highlights the potential for a seasonal price increase in January, particularly in the oil and bulk cargo sectors [5]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the railway and highway freight volumes, with steady growth observed. Data from the Ministry of Transport shows a slight decrease in railway freight but an increase in highway truck traffic [5][6]. - The airline industry is at a turning point, with expectations for significant improvements in airline profitability due to supply constraints and increasing passenger volumes [5]. - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined for future profitability and market dynamics [5]. Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - New ship orders and pricing have improved since October, with expectations for a strong performance in 2026. Companies like ST Song, China Shipbuilding, and China Power are highlighted as key players [5]. - The report notes a significant drop in VLCC rates, with a 34.4% decrease observed on December 24, while crude oil tanker rates showed a 7.6% increase due to supply constraints [5]. Railway and Highway - Railway freight volume was reported at 78.37 million tons, a 1.96% decrease week-on-week, while highway truck traffic increased by 2.02% to 55.44 million vehicles [5][6]. Airline Industry - The report suggests that the airline industry is poised for a golden era, with supply constraints and increased international travel expected to enhance profitability [5]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is undergoing a transformation, with three scenarios proposed for future market dynamics, focusing on price recovery and potential mergers [5]. Overall Transportation Index - The transportation sector index rose by 1.37%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.95% [6].

Group 1 - The market sentiment is positive, with the North Exchange 50 index rising by 1.19% and the trading volume decreasing by 11.69% compared to the previous week [2][12][16] - Key market themes include commercial aerospace, Hainan "closure" theme, liquid cooling, lithium battery material price increases, and rising copper prices, indicating active thematic investments in future industries such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communication [12][13][14] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the North Exchange thematic market during the spring rally, emphasizing the importance of timing in thematic investments and highlighting specific stocks to watch, including Fujida, Xingtou Measurement and Control, and others in emerging technology sectors [13][14] Group 2 - The North Exchange saw one new stock listed this week, Jiangtian Technology, which had a significant first-day increase of 180.58% [26][7] - The report notes that the quality of new stocks on the North Exchange is expected to continue improving, with attention on the upcoming listing of Hengtong Light [14][26] - The new three-board market saw 10 new listings and 42 delistings this week, with a total of 5,956 companies currently listed [47][49]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of Baidu Group to "Buy" [2][6] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that Baidu is advancing its AI full-stack construction, with significant growth in its intelligent cloud business, driven by the release of new AI models and chips [5][25] - Baidu's self-developed Kunlun chips are expected to enter a phase of mass production, enhancing its competitive edge in AI computing [5][45] - The Robotaxi business is experiencing substantial growth, with improved profitability and a comprehensive technology system in place [5][58] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for Baidu Group from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 1285 billion, 1331 billion, and 1410 billion RMB, with corresponding growth rates of -3%, 4%, and 6% [4][7] - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to be 176 billion, 203 billion, and 220 billion RMB for the same period, reflecting a decline in 2025 followed by recovery [4][7] - The adjusted earnings per share are expected to be 6.31, 7.27, and 7.87 RMB from 2025 to 2027 [4] Intelligent Cloud Business - Baidu's intelligent cloud revenue reached 62 billion RMB in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 31%, accounting for 37% of Baidu's core revenue [5][32] - The AI cloud infrastructure revenue grew by 33%, while the subscription revenue for AI accelerators surged by 128% [5][28] - Baidu's market share in the AI large model solution market is leading at 16.6%, with strong growth in its AI cloud services [5][37] Kunlun Chip Development - The Kunlun chip series has undergone significant development, with the third generation expected to meet the demands of large-scale AI models [5][45] - The Kunlun chips have been successfully integrated into various industries, including finance and energy, demonstrating their commercial viability [5][53] Robotaxi Business - The Robotaxi platform, "LuoBo Kuaipao," has seen a significant increase in order volume, with over 310 million orders in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 200% [5][58] - The business has achieved profitability at the unit level, indicating a successful transition from technology validation to sustainable commercialization [5][58]