研究报告 Research Report 3 Aug 2025 中国可选消费 & 必需消费 China (Overseas) Discretionary & Staples 餐饮、潮玩及家电行业周报 F&B, Designer Toys and Home Appliances Sector Weekly Report [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_yejiao1] 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国 际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证 券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer) [Table_header1] 中国可选消费 & 必需消费 | [Table_Info] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Hong Kong market is experiencing a correction phase due to weak economic fundamentals and a lack of positive catalysts, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 3.5% and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping by 4.9% [1][7]. - China's economic data has shifted from structural divergence to overall weakness, with the July manufacturing PMI declining to 49.3 from 49.7 in June, reflecting weakening demand [1][7]. - The construction PMI has also weakened, influenced by subdued real estate demand and a slowdown in infrastructure investment, with notable declines in property sales in July [1][7]. Group 2 - The report highlights that the rebound in anti-involution sectors was primarily a technical recovery from oversold levels, and structural capacity cuts require sustained policy support [3][9]. - It is expected that targeted measures to stimulate domestic demand and real estate will be introduced, particularly around the time of the Fourth Plenary Session, as the core challenge for China's economy remains deflation [3][9]. - The report suggests that large-cap blue chips may gain greater upside potential once supply and demand policies work in tandem [3][9]. Group 3 - The report notes that the recent rally in Hong Kong and A-share markets was linked to a weaker dollar, with the dollar index's rebound in early July corresponding to a choppy phase for the Hang Seng Index [10][15]. - Following a new trade agreement between the U.S. and Europe, the dollar surged, but the potential for sustained dollar weakness is limited due to the U.S. implementing tariffs and gaining economic benefits from trading partners [10][15]. - Overall market risk appetite is trending lower as global markets enter a correction phase [10][15]. Group 4 - In terms of liquidity, the short selling ratio in Hong Kong rose to 16%, aligning with the two-year average, while southbound capital inflows significantly increased to HKD 59 billion [11][12]. - Major Chinese tech stocks, including Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, and SMIC, saw significant net inflows, with each attracting HKD 2–3 billion [11][12]. - However, as the market declined midweek, leveraged inflows slowed, and equity ETFs shifted from net subscriptions to net redemptions, indicating a more cautious investor sentiment [12][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for Budweiser Brewing Co APAC with a target price of HK$7.90, while the current price is HK$8.09 [2][6]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing marginal improvements, but the recovery process is slower than expected, with total sales volume in 25H1 declining by 6.1% year-on-year and revenue decreasing by 5.6% year-on-year [3][10]. - The Chinese market continues to face challenges, with sales volume and revenue down by 8.2% and 9.5% respectively in 25H1, although there are signs of marginal improvement in Q2 [4][11]. - The South Korean market is undergoing structural adjustments, while the Indian market shows resilience with double-digit revenue growth in Q2 [5][12]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024A, the company expects revenue of US$6.246 billion, with a projected decline of 8.9% year-on-year. The net profit is estimated at US$726 million, reflecting a decrease of 14.8% [2][9]. - The gross profit margin is projected to be 50.4% for 2024A, with a gradual increase to 51.1% by 2027E [2][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are estimated to be USD 0.05, USD 0.05, and USD 0.06 respectively [6][13]. Market Analysis - In the Chinese market, the on-premise channel remains weak, and the transformation is still in its early stages, with a focus on premium products in non-on-premise channels [4][11]. - The company has been actively managing inventory, achieving better-than-historical inventory levels by the end of Q2 2025, which supports future sales growth [4][11]. - In South Korea, the company implemented a price increase of 2.9% for core brands, but the market response was neutral, and overall performance remains under pressure [5][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that if the company can overcome challenges related to channel transformation and expense control, it may reverse the decline in market share in China, laying the groundwork for medium- to long-term recovery [6][13].

Investment Focus - The report highlights Amazon (AMZN US) as a top pick due to its leading position in the cloud industry with a 30% global market share, stable margin improvements, and strong demand for its T3 inference capabilities [1] - Alphabet (GOOGL US) is favored for its AI and advertising synergy, expected margin improvements in IaaS cloud services, and strong self-developed capabilities, although its stock price upside is currently limited [1] - Arista (ANET US) is recognized for its leadership in high-speed data center switches and expected revenue contributions from AI backend switch business, with a significant growth visibility [1] - Meituan (3690 HK) is noted for its strong cash flow generation ability and competitive cost structure, positioning it well in the face of industry competition [1] - Lenovo (992 HK) is highlighted for its record revenue in AI server business and significant growth potential compared to peers like Dell [2] - NVIDIA (NVDA US) is recognized for its strong financial performance and technological leadership in data center business, with a focus on emerging applications driving growth [2] - Tencent (700 HK) is expected to benefit significantly from AI advancements, with an upward revision in revenue and profit expectations for 2025 [2] - New Oriental (EDU US) is noted for its diverse revenue sources and strong brand recognition, supporting its high profit margins [3] - AIA (1299 HK) is favored for its steady growth in new business value and strong operational metrics, particularly in the ASEAN market [3] - Futu (FUTU US) is expected to see significant growth in paid user numbers and total AUM, supported by its low commission model and quality customer service [3] - The report emphasizes the potential of Chinese pharmaceutical companies like China Biologic Products (1177 HK) and Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) in their innovative drug pipelines and market leadership [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company, but it indicates strong performance and positive growth trends, suggesting a favorable outlook for investors. Core Insights - Apple reported FY3Q25 revenue of $94.0 billion, exceeding market expectations of $89.2 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 9.6% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 1.4% [1][6] - Earnings per share (EPS) was $1.57, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.43 [1][6] - Overall gross margin was 46.5%, at the high end of guidance but down 60 basis points quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to approximately $800 million in tariff costs [1][6] - iPhone revenue reached $44.6 billion, up 13% year-over-year, with double-digit growth in emerging markets and a healthy channel inventory [2][7] - Services revenue was $27.4 billion, also up 13% year-over-year, with strong performance across both developed and emerging markets [2][8] - Management guidance for 4Q25 indicates expected revenue growth in the mid-to-high single-digit percentage range, with gross margin projected between 46% and 47% [3][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY3Q25 revenue: $94.0 billion, YoY growth: 9.6%, QoQ decline: 1.4% [1][6] - EPS: $1.57, exceeding expectations [1][6] - Overall gross margin: 46.5%, down 60 bps QoQ due to tariffs [1][6] Product Performance - iPhone revenue: $44.6 billion, YoY growth: 13%, with double-digit growth in emerging markets [2][7] - iPhone 16 series shipments grew by double digits compared to the iPhone 15 series [2][7] - Revenue in China increased by 4% QoQ, driven by subsidy programs [2][7] Services Performance - Services revenue: $27.4 billion, YoY growth: 13%, with double-digit growth in both developed and emerging markets [2][8] - U.S. App Store achieved double-digit growth, reaching an all-time high [2][8] Future Guidance - 4Q25 revenue expected to grow in the mid-to-high single-digit percentage range [3][9] - Gross margin projected between 46% and 47%, including approximately $1.1 billion in tariff costs [3][9] - Operating expenses expected to be between $15.6 billion and $15.8 billion [3][9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the consumer staples sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and others [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that most baijiu wholesale prices have stabilized, with specific price changes noted for various brands. For instance, the price of Feitian Moutai (case) is 1915 yuan, down by 35 yuan from the previous month, and down 665 yuan year-on-year [3][9]. - Discounts on liquid milk and beer have decreased compared to previous months, indicating a shift in pricing strategies within the consumer goods market [5][22]. Summary by Sections Baijiu Pricing - Guizhou Moutai's prices for different products have shown a decline, with Feitian Moutai (case) at 1915 yuan, down 35 yuan month-on-month and 665 yuan year-on-year [3][9]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price is 930 yuan, stable compared to last month and unchanged year-on-year [4][9]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Guojiao 1573 remains at 860 yuan, unchanged from last month and down 40 yuan year-on-year [4][9]. Consumer Goods Discounts - The average discount rate for liquid milk has decreased to 79.1% from 73.8% at the end of June, while the median discount rate increased to 80.3% [5][22]. - Beer discounts have also seen a slight increase, with average and median rates at 83.6% and 87.0%, respectively, compared to 81.1% and 84.6% in late June [5][22]. - Discounts for infant formula and instant foods have remained stable, with average rates at 93.0% and 94.3%, respectively [7][22].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 1 Aug 2025 电子 Technology 全球科技业绩快报：KLA 2Q25 Global Tech Earnings Snapshot: KLA 2Q25 姚书桥 Barney Yao barney.sq.yao@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [(Table_summary] Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 1）需求疲软 2）竞争加剧 3）关税和地缘政治带来的不确定性 [Table_yejiao1] 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国 际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证 券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer) [ ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Tokyo Electron, but it indicates a stable dividend policy and long-term growth potential driven by technology advancements [4][10]. Core Insights - Tokyo Electron's FY1Q26 financial results met expectations, with net sales of ¥549.5 billion, a decrease of 16.1% QoQ and 1.0% YoY, and an operating profit of ¥144.6 billion, down 21.3% QoQ and 12.7% YoY [1][7]. - Significant increases in R&D and capital expenditures were noted, with R&D expenses rising 16.3% YoY to ¥62.1 billion and capital expenditures surging 120.2% YoY to ¥52.8 billion, primarily for XLO technology production line and R&D center expansion [1][10]. - The global semiconductor equipment market forecast for 2025 was revised up from $110 billion to $115 billion, indicating resilient demand [2][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY1Q26 net sales were ¥549.5 billion, with an operating profit of ¥144.6 billion and operating margin of 26.3% [1][7]. - Free cash flow reached ¥112.0 billion, supporting a dividend of ¥485 per share [1][7]. Business Developments - Key technologies, including low-resistance metal deposition tools and 3D integration tools, are progressing well, with new tools entering evaluation phases with NAND customers [2][8]. - The new R&D building in Miyagi has been completed, enhancing the company's R&D capabilities [2][8]. Market Outlook - The FY2026 financial projections were adjusted to ¥2,350.0 billion in net sales and ¥570.0 billion in operating profit, reflecting a decrease due to customer investment adjustments [4][10]. - Short-term expectations indicate a 5% decline in the semiconductor equipment market for 2026, but long-term growth is anticipated due to advancements in AI server technologies [4][10]. Product Line Performance - Non-memory segments accounted for 64% of new equipment sales, with stable performance in Field Solutions, which generated ¥119.3 billion in sales [3][9]. - China remains the largest market, with sales of ¥212.1 billion in FY1Q26, followed by Taiwan and South Korea [3][9].

Economic Performance - The US GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 reached 3.0%, exceeding market expectations of 2.6% and significantly higher than the previous value of -0.5%[5] - The main supports for this growth were a decrease in imports, resilient consumer spending, and private non-residential investment[5] - The contribution of net exports to GDP increased to 4.99% in Q2, a significant recovery from a 4.61 percentage point drag in Q1 due to "import rush" effects[6] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% during the July 2025 FOMC meeting, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change[19] - There is increasing internal dissent within the Fed, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating growing divisions[19] - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the Fed's independence and a hawkish stance, suggesting that future decisions will be data-driven rather than politically influenced[19] Inflation and Market Outlook - Short-term inflation data has not fully reflected the impact of tariffs, with expectations of continued upward pressure on inflation, which may hinder rate cuts[20] - The market's expectation for rate cuts has narrowed, with only one potential cut anticipated in October 2025, aligning with previous forecasts[20] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to fluctuate between 4.5% and 5.0% in the second half of 2025 due to rising inflation expectations and economic policy impacts[20] Stock Market Trends - The US stock market may experience short-term volatility but is expected to maintain an overall upward trend, particularly in technology sectors supported by capital expenditures and performance[22] - Trump's tax reduction policies are anticipated to benefit small and medium-sized enterprises, with the Russell 2000 index likely to gain from these changes[23]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 1 Aug 2025 中国财富管理 China (Overseas) Wealth Management 达利奥正式"交棒"桥水基金，文莱主权基金成主要股东 Ray Dalio Fully Exits Bridgewater, Brunei Investment Agency Becomes Major Shareholder 黄雨昕 Yuxin Huang 周林泓 Amber Zhou yx.huang@htisec.com amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [(Table_summary] Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 8 月 1 日，桥水基金创始人 Ray Dalio 正式出售其所持最后一笔股份，并退出公司董事会。这不仅为他亲 手创办的全球最大对冲基金的所有权结构画上句号，也标志着桥水十余年来漫长且波折的治理结构转型 顺利收官。 Dalio 自 2011 年启动继任计划以来，逐步淡出公司核心管理 ...