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铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250918
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 4.00 - 4.25%, with dovish signals. Various assets fluctuated sharply. Domestically, A - shares oscillated and rose, expected to remain high - oscillating. The bond market was in a sensitive period, with limited configuration space [2][3]. - For precious metals, after the Fed's interest - rate cut, gold and silver prices pulled back and are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4][5]. - Copper prices retreated due to the Fed's weaker - than - expected interest - rate cut and are expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [6][7]. - Aluminum prices adjusted. The fundamentals remained stable, and the adjustment was expected to be limited [8][9]. - Zinc prices are expected to stabilize and repair after the interest - rate cut, but the upward space depends on the arrival of the consumption peak season [10][11]. - Lead prices oscillated horizontally due to the intertwining of long and short factors [12]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the market digests the Fed's signals [13][14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate strongly with the improvement of demand expectations [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices oscillated, waiting for policy implementation to boost prices [17]. - Nickel prices oscillated. The macro boost was limited, but the relatively loose monetary environment was still positive [18][19]. - Oil prices oscillated due to fluctuating geopolitical risks and limited impact from the Fed's interest - rate cut [20][21]. - For soda ash and glass, attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the glass - soda ash price difference, while being vigilant about the pressure of high soda ash inventory [22]. - Steel prices oscillated after the Fed's interest - rate cut, with limited changes in fundamentals [23][24]. - Iron ore prices oscillated and rebounded, with strong spot prices and expected support from restocking [25]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated and declined, influenced by Sino - US news, and are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [26][27]. - Palm oil prices oscillated and adjusted due to the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and uncertain US biodiesel policies [28][29]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The table shows the closing data of main futures markets for various metals, including contract names, closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, open interest, and price units [30]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, on September 17, SHFE copper and LME copper prices both declined, with changes in inventory, spot quotes, and other data [31]. - For nickel, SHFE nickel prices fell on September 17, and LME nickel prices remained unchanged, with corresponding changes in inventory and other data [31]. - For zinc, SHFE zinc prices rose slightly on September 17, and LME zinc prices fell, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For lead, SHFE lead prices rose on September 17, and LME lead prices fell slightly, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For aluminum, SHFE aluminum prices fell on September 17, and LME aluminum prices also declined, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For alumina, SHFE alumina prices fell on September 17, and the national average spot price also decreased [34]. - For tin, SHFE tin prices fell on September 17, and LME tin prices also declined, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For precious metals, there were changes in prices, inventory, and other data of gold and silver in different markets on September 17 [34]. - For other varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and agricultural products, there were corresponding price and data changes on September 17 [36][38].
铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250917
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is highly concerned about the Fed's interest rate decision, with a general expectation of a 25bp rate cut. Most commodities are in a state of waiting for the outcome of the meeting, and their short - term trends are affected by this expectation [4][6][16]. - Domestic policies are being introduced to boost service consumption, and the A - share market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, while the bond market remains on the sidelines [3]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand fundamentals, which, combined with macro - factors, determine their price trends. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomics - Overseas: The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, higher than expected, indicating strong consumption. The market is waiting for the FOMC result, with the US dollar index falling, and the gold price hitting a new high [2]. - Domestic: The Ministry of Commerce and other nine departments have introduced new policies for service consumption. The A - share market is oscillating, with more than 3,600 stocks rising. The bond market is sensitive to negatives, and the 10Y and 30Y interest rates have been restored to 1.78% and 2.08% respectively [3]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver showed mixed performance. COMEX gold futures rose 0.23% to $3,727.5 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell 0.19% to $42.88 per ounce. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates, but some funds are cautious as the rate - cut approaches [4]. Copper - Before the Fed's interest rate meeting, the market is cautious. The expectation of a 25 - basis - point rate cut this month may have been digested. The market is highly concerned about the future path of the "dot plot". Part of the overseas long - position funds have taken profits in advance. The dollar index is continuously weakening, and the copper price still has upward potential in the medium term [6]. Aluminum - The aluminum price continued to oscillate strongly. The market's strong expectation of a Fed rate cut has boosted the aluminum price. However, high prices have restricted downstream procurement to some extent. The consumption peak season needs to be verified, and the price needs fundamental support to rise further [7][8]. Zinc - The expectation of a large - scale rate cut has weakened. The LME zinc inventory has been continuously decreasing, supporting the price of London zinc and thus the Shanghai zinc price. The domestic downstream procurement is still cautious, and the zinc price oscillates narrowly in the short term [9]. Lead - The expectation of refinery复产 has increased, and the supply - side support for the lead price has weakened. However, the expected stocking demand of downstream battery enterprises during the National Day holiday and the expected outflow of some goods after delivery will support the price. The lead price is expected to adjust at a high level in the short term [10]. Tin - The LME 0 - 3 BACK has slightly widened, and the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and domestic refinery maintenance support the price. However, the increase in inventory at home and abroad and insufficient downstream consumption make it difficult for the price to rise. The tin price will continue to oscillate horizontally in the short term [11]. Industrial Silicon - The demand expectation has improved, and the industrial silicon price is running strongly. The supply is slightly shrinking, and the demand side shows signs of improvement. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [12][13]. Carbonate Lithium - The lithium price may still rise. The downstream stocking expectation is strong, but the acceptance of prices is weak. The risk of resource disruption has not been eliminated, and the high - level emphasis on anti - involution provides support for the price [14]. Nickel - As the Fed's interest rate meeting approaches, the market generally expects a 25bp rate cut. If there is no more - than - expected rate cut, the nickel price may experience a phased correction. The nickel ore market is generally loose, and the domestic nickel - iron cost pressure remains [15][16]. Crude Oil - Geopolitical tensions and inventory reduction have led to an oscillating and strengthening oil price. Although the market has a strong expectation of oversupply in the fourth quarter, the significant reduction in API crude oil inventory has boosted the bulls' sentiment. Geopolitical premiums are continuously factored in [17][18]. Soda Ash and Glass - Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities. The soda ash price increase may be related to demand and macro - expectations. The glass factory's shipment is smooth, and the market expects the Fed's interest rate meeting to drive domestic liquidity release. One can pay attention to the opportunity of the narrowing spread between glass and soda ash [19][20]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel price is oscillating. After the continuous rise, the market sentiment has been released, and the fundamental demand is poor. The supply has increased, and the peak - season expectation is difficult to be fulfilled. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the impact of the Fed's rate cut on the market [21]. Iron Ore - The port inventory has decreased, and the futures price is oscillating and rebounding. The external ore shipment has increased significantly, and the demand side is supported by the high - level resumption of blast - furnace operation. There is still an expectation of restocking in mid - to - late September [22]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The market trading is light, and the Dalian soybean meal is oscillating within a range. The short - term supply is under pressure, and the long - term import is uncertain. The future trend depends on the US bio - fuel redistribution plan and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations [23][24]. Palm Oil - The palm oil is oscillating and adjusting. The price of edible oils, including palm oil, is expected to be firm. The supply is expected to be less than the demand in 2025 and 2026. The strong performance of rapeseed oil and the impact of weather on palm oil production and export support the price [25].
铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250916
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international gold price has reached a new high, and the expectation of domestic policy strengthening has increased. The market's logic of betting on interest - rate cuts continues, and the prices of precious metals, copper, and other commodities are affected by various factors such as Sino - US relations, economic data, and Fed's interest - rate decisions [2][3]. - Different commodities show different trends. For example, precious metals are expected to be strong before the Fed's interest - rate cut in September but may face short - term corrections after the cut; copper prices are expected to oscillate upward; aluminum prices are macro - driven and remain strong; zinc prices are expected to slowly move up; lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term but need to pay attention to the callback risk; tin prices are expected to move into a consolidation phase; industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate; lithium carbonate prices may rise; nickel prices are cautiously bullish; oil prices are oscillating; soda ash prices are expected to oscillate, and glass prices may rise; steel prices are expected to oscillate and rebound; iron ore prices are expected to be strong; and soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate, while palm oil prices are expected to adjust [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Situation - Overseas: Sino - US reached a framework agreement on TikTok, and the deadline may be extended. Before the FOMC meeting, the market's logic of betting on interest - rate cuts continued, with the US dollar index falling, US bond yields declining, the US stock market reaching a new high, and the gold price hitting 3685 and copper price reaching a 15 - month high. The Senate approved Trump's nominee for the Fed governor [2]. - Domestic: The economic data in August cooled down comprehensively. The market's expectation of policy strengthening increased, and an event to introduce policies to expand service consumption will be held on September 17. The A - share market oscillated narrowly, and the bond market was in a state of being insensitive to good news and sensitive to bad news [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - The prices of international precious metals continued to rise on Monday. The COMEX gold futures rose 0.90% to $3719.50 per ounce, and the silver price reached a nearly 14 - year high. Trump's pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates and the deterioration of US employment data strengthened the expectation of interest - rate cuts. The latest US economic data was weak. The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September has been fully priced in the market, and there may be one or two more cuts by the end of the year. The report that China may relax gold import and export regulations stimulated strong buying [4][5]. - Before the Fed's interest - rate cut on September 18, the prices of gold and silver are expected to remain strong. However, after the interest - rate cut, there may be a short - term correction due to profit - taking [5]. 3.3 Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated upward on Monday, and LME copper continued to rise after breaking through the integer mark. The spot market trading of electrolytic copper was dull. Sino - US reached a strategic framework consensus in the new - round negotiation. The market has basically confirmed a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut, with the possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut. The weakening of the US dollar index boosted the metal market. Freeport's copper - gold mine in Indonesia is still shut down [6][7]. - Given the positive macro - environment and the interruption of overseas mines and the approaching consumption peak season in China, copper prices are expected to oscillate upward in the short term [7]. 3.4 Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21020 yuan/ton, down 0.47% on Monday. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased. The market is almost certain that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, and the weakening of the US dollar index continued to boost aluminum prices. The inventory of aluminum ingots in the social market increased, and the consumption peak season needs to be verified. In the short term, aluminum prices will be macro - driven and remain strong [8]. 3.5 Zinc - The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly during the day and strongly at night on Monday. The spot market trading was mainly among traders, and the downstream demand did not show signs of the peak season. The social inventory increased. The sharp decline of the US New York Fed Manufacturing Index and the weakening of the US dollar boosted the metal. The downstream consumption peak season has not yet appeared, and the inventory increase suppresses zinc prices, but the strong performance of LME zinc boosts Shanghai zinc. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to slowly move up [10]. 3.6 Lead - The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated during the day and its center of gravity moved down slightly at night on Monday. The inventory increased slightly, but the market expects downstream enterprises to stock up before the National Day holiday, so the impact on lead prices is limited. In the short term, lead prices are expected to remain strong in the oscillation, but attention should be paid to the callback risk due to insufficient consumption improvement [11]. 3.7 Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin first declined and then rose during the day and oscillated narrowly at night on Monday. The LME tin inventory has stabilized at a low level, and the liquidity risk has decreased. The domestic downstream consumption improvement is limited, and the inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. However, the shortage of tin ore raw materials has not improved, and the refinery's production has decreased. Tin prices are expected to move into a consolidation phase after the slowdown of the upward trend [12]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon oscillated strongly on Monday. The supply side is slightly shrinking, and the demand side shows signs of recovery. The social inventory has increased slightly. The price of the spot market has stabilized. The domestic anti - involution sentiment is fluctuating. Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [13][14]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate oscillated strongly on Monday. The supply has reached a new high, and the downstream consumption is good, but the supply pressure still exists. The short - term technical indicators are positive, and the downstream replenishment season has arrived. Lithium carbonate prices may rise, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in the inventory structure [15][16]. 3.10 Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated on Monday. The Fed is approaching an interest - rate cut, and Indonesia's new round of RKAB approval is coming. The market's bullish sentiment is increasing, but the inventory pressure at home and abroad still exists. Nickel prices are cautiously bullish [17][18]. 3.11 Crude Oil - Oil prices oscillated strongly on Monday. OPEC + has a clear production - increase plan, and the supply pressure exists due to the approaching consumption off - season. However, geopolitical disturbances are frequent, and potential geopolitical risks may drive oil prices to rise periodically. Oil prices are expected to oscillate [19]. 3.12 Soda Ash and Glass - The main contract of soda ash oscillated strongly on Monday. Some soda ash production facilities are under maintenance, and the downstream's willingness to stock up before the National Day is high. However, the market is pessimistic about the future due to high inventory. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate. The glass market is generally stable, and some flat - glass enterprises have reduced prices to promote sales. The photovoltaic glass market is hot, but there is a risk of capacity reduction. Glass prices may rise [20]. 3.13 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel futures oscillated and rebounded on Monday. The macro - environment and cost support are positive, but the peak - season expectation of steel demand is difficult to be fulfilled. Steel prices are expected to oscillate and rebound. Iron ore futures also oscillated and rebounded. The Sino - US economic and trade cooperation has reached a framework consensus, and the anti - involution policy expectation has increased. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is supported by the approaching National Day holiday. Iron ore prices are expected to be strong [21][22][23]. 3.14 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal declined on Monday. The US soybean harvest has started. The US soybean's excellent - rate and harvest progress are basically in line with expectations. The NOPA's soybean crushing volume in August was higher than expected. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory increased slightly, and the spot supply is sufficient. Soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate in a range [24][25]. 3.15 Palm Oil - Palm oil prices oscillated and adjusted on Monday. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates this week, the US stock market reached a new high, and the US dollar index oscillated weakly. India's palm oil imports in August remained strong, and the export demand of Malaysian palm oil in early September increased. Palm oil prices are expected to adjust in the short term [26][28].
MPOB报告中性偏空,棕榈油震荡调整
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 0.09% to 4445 ringgit/ton; palm oil 01 contract dropped 2.41% to 9296 yuan/ton; soybean oil 01 contract declined 1.51% to 8322 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 01 contract rose 0.4% to 9857 yuan/ton; CBOT US soybean oil main contract increased 1.8% to 52.12 cents/pound; ICE canola active contract climbed 2.25% to 631.4 Canadian dollars/ton [4][7]. - Palm oil oscillated and closed lower during the week, while rapeseed oil showed good resistance. The August MPOB report indicated that due to weakening export demand, Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in August increased to 2.2 million tons, and the ample supply pressured prices to adjust downward. The policy of re - allocating the US soybean oil biofuel blending obligation to large refineries faced obstacles. In early September, both production and demand of Malaysian palm oil weakened, reducing price support [4][7]. - Macroeconomically, the Fed is expected to restart the interest - rate cut cycle next week. The US dollar index is weakly oscillating, and oil prices are also in an oscillating trend. Fundamentally, the August MPOB report was slightly bearish, with an increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory and a relatively ample supply. Indonesia's B50 policy may be implemented in two phases, weakening the policy drive. The Canadian government is considering canceling tariffs on China. The domestic demand for oil stockpiling before the Double Festival is expected to boost prices. In the short term, palm oil is expected to oscillate and adjust [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Contract | 9/12 Price | 9/5 Price | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | 52.12 | 51.2 | 0.92 | 1.80% | Cents/Pound | | BMD Malaysian Palm Oil Main Contract | 4445 | 4449 | - 4 | - 0.09% | Ringgit/Ton | | DCE Palm Oil | 9296 | 9526 | - 230 | - 2.41% | Yuan/Ton | | DCE Soybean Oil | 8322 | 8450 | - 128 | - 1.51% | Yuan/Ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Oil | 9857 | 9818 | 39 | 0.40% | Yuan/Ton | | Futures Spread between Soybean Oil and Palm Oil | - 974 | - 1076 | 102 | - | Yuan/Ton | | Futures Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Palm Oil | 561 | 292 | 269 | - | Yuan/Ton | | Spot Price of 24 - degree Palm Oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong | 9320 | 9380 | - 60 | - 0.64% | Yuan/Ton | | Spot Price of Grade - 1 Soybean Oil in Rizhao | 8480 | 8510 | - 30 | - 0.35% | Yuan/Ton | | Spot Price of Imported Grade - 3 Rapeseed Oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu | 10040 | 9860 | 180 | 1.83% | Yuan/Ton | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The August MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August was 2.202534 million tons, a 4.18% month - on - month increase; production was 1.855008 million tons, a 2.35% month - on - month increase; exports were 1.324672 million tons, a 0.29% month - on - month decrease; imports were 49036 tons, a 19.66% month - on - month decrease [8]. - From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased, and export data from different institutions also showed a decline. For example, according to SPPOMA, production decreased by 3.17% compared with the same period last month [8]. - Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil content in biodiesel to 45% (B45) and then to B50 in two phases [9]. - As of August 31, there were 209,033 small oil palm farmers in Malaysia, covering 747,012 hectares of plantations, obtaining the MSPO certification [9]. - As of the week of September 5, 2025, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.4996 million tons, a decrease of 0.73 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 0.4547 million tons from the same period last year [10]. 3.3 Industry News - The EU has recognized Malaysia's Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO) certification as a reliable standard [12]. - Malaysia's oil palm planting area in 2025 is expected to be 5.64 million hectares, slightly higher than 5.61 million hectares in 2024 [12]. - CIMB analysts expect Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September to increase by 6% month - on - month to 2.3 million tons due to weak exports and domestic demand [12]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report includes charts such as the price trends of Malaysian palm oil and US soybean oil main contracts, the price trends of the three major oils' futures and spot prices, various oil price spreads, and inventory trends of Malaysia, Indonesia, and domestic oils [13]
去产能预期尤在,锂价震荡
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the market was centered around the resumption of Ningde's lithium mines, and prices stabilized at the previous low level. The market's initial reaction to the news of Ningde's potential mine resumption was a jump - gap lower opening, but after further verification, prices stabilized. The previous low prices may indicate that after the resource - disturbance logic ends, anti - involution could be the next topic in the long - short game [3]. - The fundamental situation remains bearish, but the risk of resource disturbances is less than that of involution governance policies, and lithium prices will fluctuate. The expected resource disturbances in Jiangxi are likely to be limited, while more detailed involution governance policies may be implemented in September. New energy vehicle sales are weakening both year - on - year and month - on - month, and fiscal subsidies mainly support the power terminal without significantly boosting it. The subsidy funds may flow more to service - oriented industries. The energy storage industry remains hot, with improved profits and positive order trends. Supply may decline slightly due to weakening prices, but the supply elasticity during the decline is relatively small, and the marginal variables in the fundamentals are limited [3][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Indicator | 2025/9/12 | 2025/9/5 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Imported lithium ore (1.3% - 2.2%) | 138 | 144 | - 6.50 | - 4.51% | USD/ton | | Imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) | 821 | 856 | - 35.00 | - 4.09% | USD/ton | | Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) | 821 | 856 | - 35 | - 4.09% | CNY/ton | | Spot exchange rate: USD/CNY | 7.122 | 7.138 | - 0.02 | - 0.22% | / | | Battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price | 7.12 | 7.43 | - 0.31 | - 4.17% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price | 7.07 | 7.30 | - 0.23 | - 3.15% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Lithium carbonate main contract price | 7.12 | 7.39 | - 0.27 | - 3.65% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse - grained) | 7.40 | 7.58 | - 0.18 | - 2.37% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Battery - grade lithium hydroxide (fine - grained) | 7.90 | 8.05 | - 0.15 | - 1.86% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Total lithium carbonate inventory | 91541 | 93844 | - 2303 | - 2.45% | ton | | Lithium iron phosphate price | 3.38 | 3.40 | - 0.02 | - 0.59% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Lithium cobalt oxide price | 21.50 | 21.50 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Ternary material price: 811 | 14.50 | 14.55 | - 0.05 | - 0.34% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Ternary material price: 622 | 12.45 | 12.65 | - 0.20 | - 1.58% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook 3.2.1 Last Week's Market Analysis - Regulatory and delivery: As of September 12, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 38,625 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 70,800 CNY/ton. The open interest of the main contract 2511 was 309,400 lots [7]. - Supply side: As of September 12, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 21,000 tons, an increase of 250 tons from the previous period. Vulcan Energy received approval to build a lithium salt project in the Hoechst Industrial Park, with a planned first - phase capacity of about 24,000 tons and expansion expectations in the second phase [7]. - Lithium salt import: In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 13,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.7%. Imports from Chile were about 8,584 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.6%, accounting for about 62.2%. Imports from Argentina were 3,950 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.5%, accounting for about 28.6%. Chile's lithium carbonate exports in July were about 20,900 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 4%/43%. Exports to China were about 13,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 33%, accounting for about 65.07% of Chile's total exports [7]. - Lithium ore import: In July, the total import of lithium ore was about 750,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.3%. Imports from Australia were 427,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 67.2%, accounting for about 56.88%; imports from Zimbabwe were about 64,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.2%, accounting for about 8.5%; imports from South Africa were about 106,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%, accounting for 14.1%; imports from Nigeria were about 116,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47.3%. The significant increase in lithium spodumene concentrate imports in July was mainly due to the higher relative economic efficiency of spodumene ore after the sharp rise in mica ore prices [8][9]. - Demand side: - Downstream cathode materials: As of September 12, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 78,307 tons, the operating rate was 68.9%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 49,550 tons, an increase of 350 tons from the previous period. The total production of ternary materials was about 17,860 tons, the operating rate was 46.76%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 12,875 tons, a decrease of 40 tons from the previous period. The price of ternary materials slightly increased, while the price of lithium iron phosphate decreased. The demand for cathode materials is mainly driven by energy storage [10]. - New energy vehicles: From September 1 - 7, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 181,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 3% and a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market was 59.6%, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year were 7.752 million units, a year - on - year increase of 25%. The growth rate of new - energy vehicle consumption weakened both year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to the high sales base in August 2025 and the subsidy policy focusing on high - end models [11]. - Inventory: As of August 29, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 100,834 tons, a decrease of about 5,221 tons from the previous period. Factory inventory was 25,165 tons, a decrease of about 590 tons from the previous period; market inventory was 75,669 tons, a decrease of about 4,631 tons from the previous period. Exchange inventory was 29,887 tons, an increase of 4,897 tons from the previous week [12][13]. 3.2.2 This Week's Outlook The expectation of capacity reduction still exists, and lithium prices will fluctuate. The fundamental bearish pattern remains unchanged, with the risk of resource disturbances being less than that of involution governance policies [14]. 3.3 Industry News - KoBold Metals obtained 7 exploration licenses for lithium and other minerals in the Democratic Republic of the Congo [15]. - The "Dobra" lithium mine project, which may be the first project of the US - Ukraine joint investment fund, is expected to emerge. Ukraine has launched a public tender for the mining rights of the lithium deposit in Kirovohrad Oblast [15]. - Jiangxi Yongxing's supporting mining right obtained a three - year ceramic clay safety production license, with an annual mining scale of 3 million tons. The risk of suspension of production in Jiangxi's lithium mining sector remains, and further attention should be paid to enterprise dynamics [15]. - Galan Lithium received an investment of 20 million Australian dollars and is expected to start production in early 2026. The first - phase capacity of the Hombre Muerto West (HMW) project is 4,000 tons of LCE per year [15]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts showing the price and production trends of lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, etc., as well as the import and supply structure of lithium carbonate [17][19][21][24][26][27][28].
供应压力不改,氧化铝延续弱势
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market remains weak due to supply pressure. Although the procurement activity of electrolytic aluminum enterprises has increased, the downstream buyers are pressing down prices severely due to the oversupply of alumina, and the consumption increment is limited. The warehouse receipt inventory continues to rise, adding pressure to the market. Attention should be paid to the cost support of alumina [2][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Category | 2025/9/5 | 2025/9/12 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 3006 | 2914 | -92 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 3166 | 3099 | -67 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 202 | 224 | 22 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 355 | 333 | -22 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | -1.30 | 123 | 124.3 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse Inventory | 112306 | 138692 | 26386 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 610 | 610 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 74.5 | 74.5 | 0 | US dollars/ton | [3] Market Review - Alumina futures' main contract fell 3.06% last week, closing at 2914 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price of the spot market was reported at 3099 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of -67 yuan/ton from the previous week [5]. - In the bauxite market, the overall supply of domestic ores remains severe. The regular inspections and the slow resumption of closed mines have kept the operating rate of inland mines low, with limited spot circulation in the market, which supports the price. The inventory of imported ores at Chinese ports has started to decline, but the overall supply of imported ores in China is still slightly excessive. Enterprises will continue to make purchases based on rigid demand in the short term, and the differences in price views between supply and demand sides will lead to continued price competition in the market [5]. - On the supply side, alumina supply increased slightly. Some alumina enterprises in the north that were affected by environmental protection measures and reduced production have slightly increased production this week. As of September 11, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.7 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.36% [5]. - On the consumption side, last week, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Shandong was transferred to Yunnan, while other electrolytic aluminum enterprises maintained stable production. Overall, the operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry remained stable compared with the previous week, and the demand for alumina did not change significantly [5]. - In terms of inventory, the warehouse receipt inventory of alumina futures increased by 11,000 tons last Friday, reaching 139,000 tons, while the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [2][5][7]. Market Outlook - The Chinese bauxite market showed no significant changes last week. The interaction of multiple bullish and bearish factors led to no substantial adjustment in prices. On the supply side, some previously shut - down production capacities resumed operation last week, resulting in a slight increase in operating capacity. On the consumption side, the procurement activity of electrolytic aluminum enterprises increased significantly compared with the previous period. However, due to the oversupply of alumina, downstream buyers are pressing down prices severely, and the procurement is mainly for rigid demand replenishment, with limited consumption increment. The warehouse receipt inventory continued to increase by 11,000 tons during the week, reaching 139,000 tons, while the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. Overall, the operating capacity of alumina remains at a high level, and considering the current weighted average cost of alumina, there is still some profit. It is expected that the operating capacity of alumina will remain high in the future. The consumption side remains stable, and with sufficient supply, buyers have a strong mindset of pressing down prices. The rising warehouse receipt inventory also adds pressure, so alumina will continue to be weak, and attention should be paid to the cost support of alumina [2][7]. Industry News - Vedanta announced an investment of over 125 billion rupees to enhance its metal manufacturing capabilities, aiming to strengthen the domestic supply of key materials necessary for electric vehicle production to meet the needs of India's rapidly growing electric vehicle (EV) industry and contribute to India's vision of sustainable and clean transportation. The investment involves expanding the aluminum smelting business, increasing the added value of aluminum products, building a new zinc alloy factory, installing a zinc roasting furnace, and expanding the ferrochrome production capacity [8]. - Jiaokou County Wangzhuang Pig Iron Co., Ltd. won the exploration right of the Fengjiagang block bauxite in Jiaokou County, Shanxi Province, with the highest bid of 3.1728 billion yuan [8]. - Metro Mining's operating data for August 2025 showed that the shipment volume of its Queensland bauxite mine project increased by 6% year - on - year to 753,101 wet tons. As of now, Metro Mining's total bauxite shipment volume has reached 3.4 million wet tons, and its target shipment volume for 2025 is 6.5 - 7 million wet tons [8].
钢材周报:供需驱动不强,钢价震荡为主-20250915
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - level shows that the Ministry of Finance will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, and Shenzhen has adjusted real - estate policies in three aspects: relaxing purchase restrictions, loosening corporate home - buying, and optimizing credit [1][4][10] - In terms of fundamentals, last week's industrial data was average. Steel production decreased, hot - rolled coil apparent demand rebounded, but rebar apparent demand declined. The peak - season demand expectation was hard to fulfill, and rebar inventory continued to accumulate. With good steel - mill resumption, strong raw - material support, limited peak - season demand recovery, and weak spot prices, steel futures prices are expected to fluctuate [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3127 | - 16 | - 0.51 | 9051013 | 3329767 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3364 | 24 | 0.72 | 2667967 | 1323310 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 799.5 | 10.0 | 1.27 | 1727027 | 538976 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1144.5 | - 14.0 | - 1.21 | 6923190 | 910688 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1625.5 | - 21.0 | - 1.28 | 130356 | 52840 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated slightly down. From Monday to Thursday, prices dropped due to poor demand recovery, and on Friday, policy expectations increased, warming market sentiment and pushing up steel prices. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 3010 (+20) Yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3220 (-20) Yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3400 (+20) Yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Industry News - In August, China's steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a decrease of 326,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decline of 3.3%. From January to August, cumulative steel exports were 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% [6][7] - The preliminary value of the change in the US non - farm employment benchmark in 2025 was - 911,000, expected to be - 700,000, and the previous value was - 598,000 [10] - China's PPI in August decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the month - on - month change turned from a 0.2% decrease to flat. China's CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, with a flat month - on - month change [10] - In August, automobile production and sales in China were 2.815 million and 2.857 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and 10.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 13% and 16.4% [10] - On September 5th, Shenzhen adjusted real - estate policies in three aspects: relaxing purchase restrictions, loosening corporate home - buying, and optimizing credit [1][4][10] - On September 14th, China and the US held talks on economic and trade issues in Madrid, Spain [10] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report includes 20 charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, spot price differences, steel - mill profits, blast - furnace operating rates, production, inventory, and apparent consumption [9][11][18] etc.
豆粕周报:USDA报告符合预期,连粕震荡运行-20250915
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 18.5 to close at 1045.25 cents per bushel, a 1.80% increase; the soybean meal 01 contract rose 12 to close at 3079 yuan per ton, a 0.39% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 20 to 2980 yuan per ton, a 0.68% increase; the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 19 to 2531 yuan per ton, a 0.75% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 10 to 2600 yuan per ton, a 0.39% increase [4][7]. - US soybeans fluctuated and closed higher. The drought - affected area in the producing areas expanded, the crop good - to - excellent rate continued to decline, and the export sales progress was generally slow. The report slightly lowered the yield per unit and export demand, which was in line with market expectations. Soybean meal fluctuated in a narrow range. The domestic soybean arrival volume was sufficient, the operating rate was at a high level, soybean meal continued to accumulate inventory, the basis was weak, and at the same time, Brazil's export supply capacity weakened, the premium was strong, and the import cost was supported [4][7]. - The September USDA report was generally in line with expectations. The yield per unit was slightly lowered to 53.5 bushels per acre, the export demand was lowered to 1.685 billion bushels, and the inventory increased slightly to 300 million bushels, with a slightly bearish impact. The drought - affected area in the producing areas expanded, and the soil moisture in the eastern region continued to decline. There was still an expectation of a yield per unit reduction in the next report. The oil mills' operating rate remained high, soybean meal inventory increased, and the basis was under pressure. Feed enterprises' stocking demand before the double festivals would increase, and the inventory days increased. The procurement progress for the November - January shipping schedule was slow, and the premium of Brazil's old - crop soybeans was strong, providing support for the import cost. It is expected that the short - term Dalian soybean meal will continue to fluctuate [4][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Contract | 9/12 | 9/5 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1045.25 | 1026.75 | 18.50 | 1.80% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 490.00 | 489.00 | 1.00 | 0.20% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 466.00 | 467.00 | - 1.00 | - 0.21% | US dollars per ton | | Brazil Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | - 83.52 | - 50.23 | - 33.29 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3079.00 | 3067.00 | 12.00 | 0.39% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2531.00 | 2550.00 | - 19.00 | - 0.75% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Price Difference | 548.00 | 517.00 | 31.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3000.00 | 3000.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2980.00 | 2960.00 | 20.00 | 0.68% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Price Difference: South China | - 99.00 | - 107.00 | 8.00 | | Yuan per ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - **USDA Report**: The September USDA report was neutral. The planting area was slightly increased by 200,000 acres to 81.1 million acres, the yield per unit was slightly reduced to 53.5 bushels per acre, the crushing demand was increased by 15 million bushels to 2.555 billion bushels, the export demand was reduced by 20 million bushels to 1.685 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was 300 million bushels [8]. - **US Crop Growth**: As of the week of September 7, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 64%, higher than the market expectation of 63%, 65% in the previous week, and 65% in the same period last year. The pod - setting rate was 97%, 94% in the previous week, and 97% in the same period last year and the five - year average. The leaf - falling rate was 21%, 11% in the previous week, 23% in the same period last year, and 22% in the five - year average. As of the week of September 9, about 22% of the US soybean planting area was affected by drought, 16% in the previous week, and 26% in the same period last year [9]. - **US Soybean Export**: As of the week of September 4, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season were 541,000 tons, and the cumulative sales volume was 9.354 million tons, compared with 14.25 million tons in the same period last year. China had not purchased new - crop US soybeans [9]. - **US Soybean Crushing**: As of the week of September 5, 2025, the gross crushing profit of US soybeans was 3.08 US dollars per bushel, compared with 2.71 US dollars per bushel in the previous week. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at soybean processing plants in Illinois was 295.69 US dollars per short ton, compared with 296.88 US dollars per short ton in the previous week. The truck - delivered price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 52.73 cents per pound, compared with 53.25 cents per pound in the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 10.01 US dollars per bushel, compared with 10.47 US dollars per bushel in the previous week [9]. - **NOPA Forecast**: The NOPA monthly report forecast showed that member enterprises were expected to crush 182.857 million bushels of soybeans in August. If the forecast was accurate, the August crushing volume would decrease by 6.6% compared with 195.699 million bushels in July but increase by 15.7% compared with 158.008 million bushels in August 2024 [10]. - **Brazilian Situation**: Brazilian farmers had started planting 2025/26 season soybeans, with a sowing rate of 0.02% as of last Thursday. Brazil's soybean export volume in September was expected to rise to 7.43 million tons, compared with an expected 6.75 million tons in the previous week [10]. - **Domestic Inventory**: As of the week of September 5, 2025, the main oil mills' soybean inventory was 7.317 million tons, an increase of 348,500 tons from the previous week and 425,200 tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 1.1362 million tons, an increase of 57,400 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 212,600 tons from the same period last year; the unfulfilled contracts were 6.6278 million tons, an increase of 2.2196 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 8,200 tons from the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 9.661 million tons, an increase of 605,000 tons from the previous week and 1.1845 million tons from the same period last year [10]. - **Domestic Trading and Consumption**: As of the week of September 12, 2025, the national daily average trading volume of soybean meal was 176,160 tons, including 78,360 tons of spot trading and 97,800 tons of forward trading, compared with a daily average total trading volume of 101,900 tons in the previous week; the daily average pickup volume of soybean meal was 197,560 tons, compared with 191,540 tons in the previous week; the main oil mills' crushing volume was 2.3604 million tons, compared with 2.3039 million tons in the previous week; the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 9.22 days, compared with 8.8 days in the previous week [11]. Industry News - **Brazil**: The Safras & Mercado institution predicted that Brazil's total soybean output in the 2025/26 season would be 180.92 million tons, a 5.3% increase from 171.84 million tons last year. The new - season soybean planting area was expected to be about 48.21 million hectares, a 1.2% increase from the previous season, and the average yield per unit was expected to increase from 3,625 kg per hectare to 3,771 kg per hectare. Brazil's soybean export volume in 2026 was expected to reach 108 million tons, the same as the July forecast, a 3% increase from 105 million tons in 2025. The 2026 soybean crushing volume forecast was raised from 59 million tons to 59.5 million tons, and the 2025 crushing volume forecast was raised from 57 million tons to 58 million tons. The Secex institution reported that Brazil exported 1,005,957.55 tons of soybeans in the first week of September, with a daily average export volume of 201,191.51 tons, a 31% decrease from the daily average export volume of 290,783.94 tons in September last year. CONAB estimated that Brazil's soybean output in the 2024/25 season would reach 171.4723 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.1889 million tons (13.3%) and a month - on - month increase of 1.8153 million tons (1.1%); the sowing area would reach 47.3506 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 1.2547 million hectares (2.7%) and a month - on - month decrease of 286,600 hectares (0.6%). The IBGE estimated that Brazil's soybean planting area in 2025 would be 47.666743 million hectares, a 3.5% increase from the previous month's forecast and a 0.2% increase from last year; the soybean output was estimated to be 165.892097 million tons, a 0.2% increase from the previous month's forecast and a 14.5% increase from last year [12][14]. - **Ukraine**: Due to customs document confusion after a 10% tariff was imposed on rapeseed and soybean exports, Ukraine's rapeseed exports might be suspended for at least a week. The agricultural lobbying group UCAB asked farmers not to export rapeseed until the problem was completely resolved [13]. - **Canada**: As of July 31, 2025, Canada's total rapeseed inventory decreased by 50.5% year - on - year to 1.5973 million tons, the commercial inventory decreased by 37.9% to 1.2192 million tons, and the farm inventory decreased by 70.1% to 378,100 tons. With the continued expansion of the processing industry, the industrial consumption mainly for crushing increased by 3.4% to a record 11.412 million tons. Due to strong international demand, rapeseed exports increased by 39.7% to 9.3308 million tons as of July 31 [13]. - **Argentina**: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina predicted that the soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season would decrease by 4.3% to 17.6 million hectares compared with last year because farmers chose to plant other crops such as corn and sunflowers. Soybean sowing was expected to start at the end of September or early October. As of the week of September 3, Argentine farmers sold 605,000 tons of 2024/25 season soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 31.2916 million tons. As of September 3, the cumulative export sales registration volume of 2024/25 season soybeans was 8.475 million tons, and that of 2025/26 season soybeans was 0 tons [13][14].
现货需求良好,铁矿震荡偏强
铁矿周报 2025 年 9 月 15 日 现货需求良好 铁矿震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F0297587 投资咨询号:Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F0307990 投资咨询号:Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F03099478 投资咨询号:Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F3084165 投资咨询号:Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F03112296 投资咨询号:Z0021040 1/11 ⚫ 需求端:上周钢厂显著复产,铁水产量大幅回升,日 均铁水升至240万吨以上水平。上周247家钢厂高炉 开工率83.83%,环比上周增加3.43个百分点,同比去 年增加6.20个百分点,日均铁水产量 240.55万吨, 环比上周增加11.71万吨,同比去年增加17.17万吨。 ⚫ 供应端:上周海外发运量显著减少,到港小 ...
铅周报:铅价技术性突破,谨防高位回落风险-20250915
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The strengthening of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation provides positive support for the lead price. Meanwhile, the concentrated maintenance of primary lead and secondary lead smelters eases the supply - demand pressure, and capital inflows drive the lead price up. However, demand is difficult to improve significantly. With the resumption of production of some primary lead smelters under maintenance and the possible marginal increase in supply after the secondary lead profit is restored due to the rise in lead price, it is expected that the upward momentum of lead price is limited. Investors should be cautious about chasing the rise and beware of the risk of a high - level decline [4][8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - From September 5th to 12th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,900 yuan/ton to 17,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,988 dollars/ton to 2,019 dollars/ton, an increase of 31 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.50 to 8.44, a decrease of 0.06; the SHFE inventory decreased from 66,834 tons to 66,561 tons, a decrease of 273 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 248,200 tons to 229,575 tons, a decrease of 18,625 tons; the social inventory increased from 3.59 million tons to 3.94 million tons, an increase of 0.35 million tons; the spot premium remained at - 125 yuan/ton [5] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the SHFE lead main contract PB2510 fluctuated narrowly in the first half - week and soared on Friday afternoon, closing at 17,040 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.83%. The LME lead price first declined and then rose, closing at 2,019 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.56%. In the spot market, on September 12th, the lead prices in Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets were at a discount to the SHFE 2510 contract. Downstream enterprises mainly made long - term order purchases and were hesitant about high - priced goods [6] - As of September 12th, the LME weekly inventory was 248,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 18,625 tons; the SHFE inventory was 66,561 tons, a decrease of 273 tons from the previous week. As of September 11th, the SMM five - region social inventory was 6.7 million tons, a decrease of 600 tons from Monday and an increase of 900 tons from last Thursday. With the approaching of the current - month contract delivery, the inventory may increase again [7] 3.3 Industry News - In the week of September 12th, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 350 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/metal ton from the previous week; the average imported lead concentrate processing fee was 90 dollars/dry ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week [9] 3.4 Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including those showing the SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium, LME lead premium, primary - secondary lead price difference, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [11][14][18][22]