贵金属周报 2025 年 9 月 15 日 美联储降息临近， 谨防金银因利多兑现而回调 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格延续强势表现。国际金价再创历史新高， 白银价格也创出近14年新高。主要因美国劳动力市场出现 疲软迹象，强化了人们对美联储下周进行年内首次降息的 预期。 ⚫ 最新数据显示，美国初请失业金人数上升，就业增长放缓， 且过去一年非农数据被下调91.1万个职位，显示经济动能 减弱。与此同时，8月消费者价格指数环比上涨0.4%，为 七个月最大增幅，但市场普遍将就业走弱视为更重要信 号，从而推动投资者押注美联储在9月18日会议上宣布年 内首次降息。 ⚫ 中国央行已连续10 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices fluctuated upwards. The main reasons were that the overall CPI in the US in August was moderately controllable with limited month - on - month increase, and the employment market remained weak. The market actively bet on 2 - 3 interest rate cuts within the year. Trump's arrangement of his White House economic advisor as a director might further interfere with the Fed's policy independence, and the weakening of the US dollar index boosted copper prices. Fundamentally, major mines maintained supply disruptions, there were expectations of refined copper production cuts in China, emerging industries had rapid consumption growth, and there was a risk of further decline in social inventories. The B - structure of the near - month contract slightly narrowed [2]. - Weak employment data increased the Fed's pressure to cut interest rates this month, and the low - inflation environment provided a favorable basis for a full - scale shift to a loose policy path. Trump's appointment of new directors might speed up his intervention in the future federal funds rate. In addition, the month - on - month decline of CPI in August but the narrowing of PPI decline, and the stable export growth. Driven by the expectation of growth - stabilizing policies, the sentiment in the domestic capital market was high. Fundamentally, the interference rate at overseas mine ends continued to rise, refined copper production was expected to decline. With the arrival of the consumption peak season in September and October, the tight - balance structure in China would intensify, and it was expected that copper prices would enter a stage of fluctuating upward in the short term [3][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - Price changes: From September 5th to September 12th, LME copper rose from $9,865.00/ton to $10,064.50/ton, a 2.02% increase; COMEX copper rose from $454.35 cents/pound to $464.8 cents/pound, a 2.30% increase; SHFE copper rose from 80,140 yuan/ton to 81,060 yuan/ton, a 1.15% increase; international copper rose from 71,130 yuan/ton to 72,030 yuan/ton, a 1.27% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.12 to 8.05. The LME spot premium dropped from -$68.04/ton to -$73.42/ton, a 7.91% decline, and the Shanghai spot premium dropped from 165 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory changes: As of September 12th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area increased to 635,473 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 4,000 tons (-2.53%), COMEX inventory increased by 5,142 short tons (1.68%), SHFE inventory increased by 12,203 tons (14.91%), and Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 3,200 tons (-3.99%) [7]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Copper price trend: Last week, copper prices fluctuated upwards. The reasons were related to the US economic data and policy expectations, as well as the fundamentals of supply and demand. The total global inventory continued to rise, and the US dollar index's limited rebound led to the Shanghai - London ratio remaining at a relatively low level [8]. - Macroeconomic situation: In the US, the number of initial jobless claims last week reached 263,000, a month - on - month increase of 27,000, far exceeding the expected median of 235,000. The actual number of new non - farm jobs in the past 12 months ending in March was 911,000 less than previously reported. The 8 - month CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3% increase. The market continued to bet on 2 - 3 interest rate cuts within the year. The ECB maintained key interest rates unchanged, and the euro - zone inflation was under control. In China, the CPI in August was -0.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy was +0.9% year - on - year. The PPI decline narrowed [9]. - Supply and demand situation: Globally, the mine - end supply remained tight and was transmitted to the smelting end. In China, refined copper production in September might continue to decline. The supply of scrap copper tightened, and the profitability of small and medium - sized smelters was limited. On the demand side, power grid investment projects would speed up, the copper cable industry's operating rate was expected to return to about 80%. The demand for new energy vehicles would enter the peak season, and social inventories might decline further. The tight - balance structure would intensify [10]. 3. Industry News - Import data: In August, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 275.93 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%, and the cumulative imports from January to August reached 2,007.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Imports of unwrought copper and copper products in August were 42.5 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August were 353.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. In July, the copper production of Codelco and Escondida increased year - on - year, while the production of Collahuasi decreased by 27.2% year - on - year [12]. - Panama copper mine: The Panamanian government plans to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals about the possible restart of the Panama copper mine at the end of this year or early 2026. A comprehensive environmental audit will be carried out first, which is expected to take 3 - 4 months. Before the shutdown, the mine's annual copper production was 35 tons, and its contribution to Panama's GDP was about 5%. The shutdown has caused an estimated economic loss of $1.7 billion [13]. - Freeport - McMoRan: An accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia led to 7 workers being trapped underground, and the mine's operation was suspended. The company's stock price fell by 5.81% on Tuesday. The Grasberg mining area has an annual copper production capacity of about 771,100 tons and a gold production capacity of 1.4 million ounces [14][15]. 4. Related Charts - Multiple charts showed the trends of copper prices (including SHFE copper, LME copper, COMEX copper), inventories (LME, COMEX, SHFE, Shanghai bonded area), spreads (LME spot premium, Shanghai spot premium, etc.), ratios (Shanghai - London ratio), and other indicators, as well as the net long - position ratio of non - commercial traders in COMEX copper and the net position change of LME copper investment funds [17][21][40].

锌周报 2025 年 9 月 15 日 降息预期提振 锌价向上修复 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价重心上抬。宏观面看，美国 8 月通胀温 和上涨，符合市场预期，但更多就业数据疲软，显示就业 形势严峻，市场加强美联储降息的押注，基本确定 9 月降 息，且预计年内降息三次，美元延续弱势，利好金属价格。 国内 8 月出口数据有所走弱，出口前置影响消退，新增信 贷规模低于预期，新增社融规模符合预期，居民部门短贷、 中长贷均连续两个月少增，内生经济仍弱，市场对托底政 策抱有期待。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - Macro aspect: US non - farm employment data was significantly revised downward, with obvious signs of a weakening labor market. Inflation pressure eased, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September was almost fully priced in, with a more optimistic view on the subsequent rate - cut path. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged for two consecutive periods, and Lagarde sent hawkish signals, indicating that Europe's fight against inflation might be temporarily over, and trade friction risks should be watched out for [3]. - Fundamental aspect: The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia remained abundant. APNI slightly lowered the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore by 0.75 percentage points, and the spot premium was stable. The price of ferronickel still had an upward trend, but steel mills' purchasing intensity was poor, and the upward process was slow. The pure nickel market was relatively quiet, with downstream buyers purchasing at low prices and strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and there was no obvious improvement in the fundamentals [3]. - Future outlook: With the warm macro - expectations and technical corrections, nickel prices are expected to rise. As the labor market weakens and inflation pressure eases, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September continues to rise. Technically, the main contract has reached the lower limit of the range, showing bullish signals. The industrial side has no obvious driving force, and although there is an expectation of cost loosening, a significant decline is not likely. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate upward under the joint drive of macro and technical factors [3][11][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data Summary - SHFE nickel price on September 12, 2025, was 121,980 yuan/ton, up 670 yuan/ton from September 5. LME nickel price was 15,391 dollars/ton, up 156 dollars/ton. LME inventory increased by 9,666 tons to 225,084 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 1,851 tons to 23,529 tons. The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 200 yuan/ton, while that of Russian nickel decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 961 yuan/nickel point, and stainless steel inventory decreased by 26,400 tons to 834,000 tons [4]. 2. Market Review - **Macro**: On September 9, the US non - farm benchmark correction data showed a significant weakening of the labor market, and inflation pressure eased. The market almost surely expected the Fed to start cutting rates in September, with some expecting a 50 - basis - point cut [5]. - **Nickel ore**: The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia remained stable. The APNI lowered the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore by 0.75 percentage points. Nickel iron plants were cautious in purchasing due to cost pressure, and the nickel ore price did not weaken significantly, with the spot premium remaining flat. Attention should be paid to the impact of the RKAB approval in October in Indonesia [6]. - **Pure nickel**: In August, China's refined nickel production was 35,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.55%. The monthly production capacity was about 53,699 tons, and the operating rate increased by 4.92 percentage points. In July, China's refined nickel imports increased significantly by about 703% year - on - year, mainly from Russia and Norway. The export scale in July increased by 1.73% year - on - year. As of September 4, the average monthly export profit of refined nickel had further declined. Overall, the supply of refined nickel was abundant, but the recent price increase of MHP and high - grade nickel matte in Indonesia might limit the further increase in supply [7][8]. - **Ferronickel**: The price of high - nickel pig iron increased from 945.5 yuan/nickel point to 953.5 yuan/nickel point. In August, China's nickel pig iron production was 25,280 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.77%, and Indonesia's production was 137,900 nickel tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 13.67% and 2.6% respectively. As of August 31, the ferronickel inventory decreased significantly. Although the ferronickel price continued to rise, the high - grade nickel matte price also strengthened, and it was expected that Indonesia's ferronickel production would remain stable month - on - month. In July, China's ferronickel imports increased by 1.83% year - on - year, mainly from Indonesia, and imports from Colombia decreased while those from New Caledonia increased [8]. - **Stainless steel**: In August, the production plan of 300 - series stainless steel in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In September, steel mills' production plans increased significantly month - on - month, but the increase in 300 - series stainless steel was limited, and it was difficult to drive a significant increase in ferronickel consumption [9]. - **Nickel sulfate**: The prices of battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate increased. In August, the metal output of nickel sulfate decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The production of ternary materials increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. As of September 5, the downstream and upstream inventory days of nickel sulfate remained stable. Overall, the supply and demand of the nickel sulfate market were both strong, but the growth rate of nickel sulfate production was lower than that of ternary materials, and the demand outlook was not optimistic [9]. - **New energy**: From September 1 - 7, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The decline was due to the high sales base in August 2024, the concentrated settlement of pre - ordered orders in early August 2025, and the new subsidy policy focusing more on quality rather than quantity, with limited subsidy amounts and quantities, making it difficult to drive significant consumption growth [9]. - **Inventory**: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel was 41,055 tons, an increase of 1,125 tons from the previous period. SHFE inventory increased by 1,851 tons to 23,529 tons, and LME nickel inventory increased by 9,666 tons to 205,084 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges increased by 11,517 tons to 248,613 tons [10]. 3. Industry News - Indonesia seized part of the world's largest nickel mine due to violations of forestry license regulations, which was expected to affect the monthly nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons [13]. - The energy and mineral resources department of Indonesia granted an operation license to PT Gag Nikel in Raja Ampat, West Papua [13]. - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) announced the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in September (first phase), which decreased by about 0.75% compared with the reference price in August (second phase) [13]. - First Atlantic Nickel expanded the mineralization zone of natural nickel - iron ore in its Atlantic nickel project in Canada, which is expected to provide a cleaner and more efficient nickel source for the North American market [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report includes charts on the price trends of domestic and foreign nickel, spot premium trends, LME 0 - 3 nickel premium, domestic - to - foreign nickel ratio, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron price, 300 - series stainless steel price, and stainless steel inventory [15][17][19][22]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The revision of the US non - farm payroll data截止March this year by 911,000, the lowest since 2000, indicates weak employment. The US 8 - month PPI was lower than expected and CPI met expectations, leading to high expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. Chinese economic data were mixed: the export growth rate declined in August, the core CPI rose steadily, and the new social financing scale exceeded expectations [3]. - On the fundamental side, the operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum supply side was basically stable, but the proportion of molten aluminum continued to increase, and the subsequent supply of aluminum ingots was expected to decrease. The downstream aluminum processing开工率rebounded last week, but there were differences among sectors. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased to 625,000 tons, 1,000 tons less than last Thursday; the aluminum rod inventory was 132,500 tons, 7,500 tons less than last Thursday [3]. - Overall, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September was strengthened, market risk appetite increased, and the aluminum price was supported. The operating capacity on the supply side was stable, and the supply of aluminum ingots might decrease. Consumption improved marginally, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots showed signs of destocking. Both the macro and fundamental aspects were positive, supporting the aluminum price to break through the previous high and remain strong in the short term [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - The price of LME aluminum for 3 months increased from 2,602.5 yuan/ton on September 5, 2025, to 2,701 yuan/ton on September 12, 2025, a rise of 98.5 yuan/ton. The SHFE aluminum continuous - three increased from 20,650 dollars/ton to 21,060 dollars/ton, a rise of 410 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 7.9 to 7.8. The LME spot premium increased from 1.86 dollars/ton to 6.35 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 600 tons to 485,275 tons, and the SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 12,508 tons to 72,469 tons [4]. - The average spot price increased from 20,656 yuan/ton to 20,818 yuan/ton, a rise of 162 yuan/ton. The spot premium decreased from 0 to - 40 yuan/ton. The average price of Southern Storage spot increased from 20,608 yuan/ton to 20,762 yuan/ton, a rise of 154 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference increased from 48 yuan/ton to 56 yuan/ton. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 0.1 tons to 62.5 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased from 16,539.76 yuan/ton to 16,383.85 yuan/ton, and the weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum increased from 4,116.24 yuan/ton to 4,434.15 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market Review - The average weekly price of the spot market was 20,818 yuan/ton, a rise of 162 yuan/ton compared with last week; the average weekly price of the Southern Storage spot was 20,762 yuan/ton, a rise of 154 yuan/ton compared with last week [5]. - In the macro - aspect, the US non - farm employment was revised down by 911,000 as of March this year. The US 8 - month PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, and the CPI was in line with expectations. The initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest since October 2021. China's 8 - month import and export value increased by 3.5% year - on - year. China's 8 - month CPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, while the core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting [5]. - On the consumption side, the domestic downstream aluminum processing开工率increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.7%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots decreased to 625,000 tons, 1,000 tons less than last Thursday; the aluminum rod inventory was 132,500 tons, 7,500 tons less than last Thursday [6]. 3. Market Outlook - The macro - aspect strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, increasing market risk appetite and supporting the aluminum price. However, attention should be paid to whether the Fed's interest rate decision on Thursday morning would lead to the situation of "buy on rumor, sell on news". The fundamental supply side had stable operating capacity, and the supply of aluminum ingots might decrease. Consumption improved marginally, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots showed signs of destocking. Both the macro and fundamental aspects were positive, supporting the aluminum price to break through the previous high and remain strong in the short term [7]. 4. Industry News - In August, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.815 million and 2.857 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and 10.1% and a year - on - year increase of 13% and 16.4%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 27.4% and 26.8%. From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time [8]. - It was rumored that on Tuesday, US President Trump proposed at a meeting in Washington that the EU should impose a 100% tariff on India and China for purchasing Russian energy to pressure Russia to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict [8]. 5. Related Charts - The report provided 10 charts, including the price trends of LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous - three, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai aluminum month - to - first - continuous spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, seasonal spot premium of Wumaoyi, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, seasonal changes in electrolytic aluminum inventory, and seasonal changes in aluminum rod inventory [9][10][15]

工业硅周报 多晶硅限产预期强化，工业硅低位反 弹 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周工业硅低位反弹，主因近期美联储降息预期高涨，国 内光伏行业反内卷情绪延续，市场传言多晶硅四季度将严 格实现产量配额制。供应来看，新疆地区开工率升至66%， 川滇地区丰水期开工率偏低，供应端维持小幅收缩态势； 从需求侧来看，多晶硅企业实际减产力度不及预期甚至出 现部分提产；硅片市场排产有所上调与电池市场共同形成 紧平衡预期；光伏电池备货需求持续释放，电池片短期价 格涨幅较为明显；组件端主流成交维持0.7元/瓦，下游采 买意愿偏弱，终端集中式和分布式电站项目开工稀少，下 游光伏玻璃新单价格落地成品库存有所上升，下游对整体 中游价格上行程度仍需要时间消化，工业硅社会库存回升 至53.9万吨，工业硅现货市场因盘面宽幅震荡总体运行平 稳。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the US within the year is further strengthened, with the A - share market rising on heavy volume, and the bond market showing fluctuations. The prices of various commodities are influenced by macro - economic data, industry fundamentals, and geopolitical risks, showing different trends such as high - level oscillations, upward or downward trends [2][3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The non - over - expected CPI and cold initial jobless claims in the US in August strengthened the interest rate cut trading. The US 8 - month CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, core CPI was 3.1%, both in line with expectations and flat compared to July. The initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, hitting a more than two - year high. The market pricing of three interest rate cuts within the year was strengthened, the US dollar index fell to 97.5, the 10Y US Treasury yield dropped to the 4.0% mark, and US stocks reached new highs. The eurozone central bank maintained interest rates unchanged in September and raised growth and inflation expectations [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market rose on heavy volume, with over 4000 stocks rising and the trading volume reaching 2.4 trillion. The ChiNext and STAR Market led the gains. The bond market fluctuated sharply, with the unilateral rise of A - shares suppressing the bond market, but the marginal loosening of the capital side and the discussion of the central bank's restart of bond - buying drove the bond market to stop falling and rebound [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices closed mixed on Thursday. COMEX gold futures fell 0.23% to $3673.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.12% to $42.07 per ounce. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut was strengthened, but the international gold price slightly declined due to long - position closing. It is expected that gold and silver prices will maintain a high - level oscillation before the Fed's interest rate cut on the 18th [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated upwards, and London copper approached the previous high of the year. The consumption in the domestic peak season is expected to return, and the market continues to bet on 2 - 3 interest rate cuts within the year. It is expected that copper prices will enter an oscillating upward trend in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,915 yuan/ton, up 0.63%. The LME closed at $2622/ton, up 0.21%. The social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods are both in the process of destocking, indicating that the peak - season consumption is gradually being realized. The short - term macro - environment and fundamentals are both positive, and aluminum prices will continue to show a strong performance [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2945 yuan/ton, up 0.79%. The supply - side pressure of alumina still exists, and the market is dominated by a bearish atmosphere. It continues to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the cost support [10]. 3.6 Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly during the day and shifted slightly upward at night. The social inventory in China continues to increase, which exerts pressure on zinc prices, but the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. With the gradual recovery of consumption, destocking is still expected. Zinc prices will operate in a low - level oscillation in the short term [11]. 3.7 Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated during the day and opened lower and moved higher at night. The high inventory exerts pressure on lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a weak oscillation before consumption improves [12]. 3.8 Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated horizontally during the day and showed a strong oscillation at night. The low - level LME inventory still supports tin prices. It is expected that tin prices will follow the non - ferrous metal sector to repair with a strong oscillation in the short term [13][14]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the main contract of industrial silicon rebounded from a low level. The supply side shows a passive contraction trend, and the demand side has different performances in each link. The industrial silicon social inventory continues to decline, and the spot market stabilizes. It is expected that the futures price will maintain an oscillation in the short term [15][16]. 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, the price of lithium carbonate oscillated, and the spot price weakened. The short - term market still focuses on the resource game around the lithium mine event. Although the spot inventory is being destocked, more resources are flowing to the exchange. The lithium price may oscillate around the resource game [17]. 3.11 Nickel - On Thursday, the nickel price oscillated strongly. The US labor market shows signs of weakness, and the inflation pressure slows down. The market's expectation of the Fed's subsequent interest rate cut path is more dovish. The nickel price may oscillate strongly driven by the macro - environment [18][19]. 3.12 Crude Oil - On Thursday, the oil price oscillated. The views of OPEC and IEA are divergent. The market may be more inclined to the IEA's view, and the expectation of supply surplus may put pressure on oil prices in the medium and long term. However, short - term geopolitical risks are rising, and it is expected that the oil price will oscillate [20][21]. 3.13 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures oscillated weakly. The steel production decreased, the inventory continued to accumulate, and the supply - demand relationship was not good. It is expected that the steel price will oscillate at a low level [22][23]. 3.14 Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures oscillated and declined. The iron ore price is affected by poor terminal demand and weak steel prices. The supply side is shrinking, and there is still a replenishment expectation in mid - to - late September. It is expected that iron ore will oscillate [24]. 3.15 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the 01 contract of soybean meal rose 0.78%, and the 01 contract of rapeseed meal rose 0.98%. The market expects the NOPA's soybean crushing volume in August to reach a record high for the same period. The net sales of US soybeans for export are slow. It is expected that the domestic continuous meal will oscillate in the short term [25][26]. 3.16 Palm Oil - On Thursday, the 01 contract of palm oil fell 0.11%. High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in early September decreased month - on - month, providing support for prices. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate and adjust in the short term [27][28]. 3.17 Metal Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and positions of various metal futures contracts on September 11, including SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc. [29] 3.18 Industrial Data - The report presents detailed industrial data for various metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, etc., including price changes, inventory changes, and basis changes from September 10 to 11 [30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro - globally, tariff policies have a relatively mild impact on economic growth expectations. In the US, the weak employment market has led to a rapid increase in expectations of preventive interest rate cuts by the Fed, and Trump's interference in Fed policies has shaken market confidence in the US dollar. In China, the central bank will implement moderately loose policies, the fiscal side will support traditional and emerging industries, and consumption subsidy policies will boost domestic demand [3][77]. - Fundamentals - globally, frequent mine interruptions have tightened the ore supply and affected the smelting end, raising the cost and thus the copper price. In the consumption end, traditional industries are entering the peak season, and the copper demand of emerging industries (except photovoltaics) remains rigid. Domestic inventory is at a low level, and the global inventory rebound is limited [3][77]. - Overall - the weak US employment market and non - significant inflation, along with the Fed's dovish stance, open the door for a September interest rate cut. Trump's interference challenges the Fed's independence, and the weak US dollar supports the copper price. The tightening of the ore end is intensifying and spreading to the smelting end. The domestic copper supply - demand will return to a tight balance, and social inventory may decline further. It is expected that the copper price will enter an upward - trending oscillation in September and may approach the first - half high if the interest rate cut is realized [3][77]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 August Copper Market Review - Copper prices showed an upward - trending oscillation in August. LME copper rose from around $9,550 to over $9,900, and SHFE copper rose from around 78,000 yuan to around 80,000 yuan. The upward trend was driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, concerns about the Fed's independence, and global mine supply shortages. As of August 29, LME copper closed at $9,906/ton with a monthly decline of 3.1%, and SHFE copper closed at 79,410 yuan/ton with a monthly increase of 1.75%. The market was characterized by a stronger overseas and weaker domestic performance [8]. - In terms of consumption, the terminal consumption of refined copper in China maintained off - season characteristics in August. The construction of power grid investment projects did not increase significantly, and orders in the real estate, engineering, and rail transit sectors slowed down. The air - conditioning production entered the off - season, and the demand for copper in the photovoltaic and communication fields was weak. However, the demand for copper connectors in the new - energy vehicle industry was good. The social inventory remained at a low level of 12 - 150,000 tons, and the spot premium increased after the contract change. The processing fee of copper rods was stable. It is expected that the consumption of traditional industries will recover in September, and the premium of domestic copper will rise [11][12]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 US Employment Market Shows Weakness, and Expectations of Preventive Interest Rate Cuts within the Year Rise - In August, the US non - farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, far below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The number of full - time jobs decreased by 357,000, and the ADP employment increased by only 54,000. The recruitment growth in the goods production and service sectors slowed down, and the salary increase of private - sector employees reached a four - year low. The Fed's latest Beige Book showed that consumer spending was flat or decreased, and corporate investment willingness declined. The weak employment market has increased the expectations of preventive interest rate cuts, with some in the market expecting a 50 - BP cut in September. However, some hawkish officials oppose the cut, arguing that inflation is still above the 2% target [14][15]. 3.2.2 US Manufacturing Contracts, while Eurozone Manufacturing Recovers Significantly - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in August dropped to 48.7, remaining in the contraction range for six consecutive months. Although the new orders index expanded for the first time this year, the employment index decreased, and the price - paid index declined, indicating a potential slowdown in inflation. The overall situation shows that US manufacturing enterprises face many challenges and are reluctant to expand investment [17]. - The Eurozone manufacturing PMI in August rose to 50.5, ending a three - year contraction. Germany's manufacturing PMI rose significantly, and France's also showed a recovery trend. The strong PMI data and controlled inflation provide a basis for the ECB's policy - making. The ECB may pause interest rate cuts in the short term, but there is a possibility of resuming cuts by the end of the year if service - sector inflation further declines and the impact of tariff policies on the economy intensifies [18]. 3.2.3 The Central Bank Implements Moderately Loose Policies, and the Decline in Industrial Enterprise Profits Narrowed in August - The central bank proposed to implement moderately loose monetary policies in the second - quarter monetary policy report. It aims to maintain liquidity, match the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price targets, and promote a reasonable recovery of prices. It will also improve the interest - rate regulation framework, lower the cost of bank liabilities, and support key areas such as innovation, consumption, and small enterprises [19]. - In July, the year - on - year decline in the profits of Chinese industrial enterprises above a designated size narrowed. The profits of high - tech manufacturing increased rapidly, driving the overall industrial profit growth. The fourth - quarter policy of "anti - involution + stable growth" is expected to boost the demand for industrial products and non - ferrous metals, providing upward momentum for the copper price [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Global Ore Supply is Continuously Disrupted, and the Panama Copper Mine Enters the Environmental Assessment Audit Stage - As of the end of August, the spot TC of copper concentrate remained at an extremely low level of around - $41/ton. The global supply interference rate of copper concentrate is increasing, and the supply growth rate in 2025 is expected to drop to 1.1% - 1.4%. Many major mines have experienced interruptions and suspensions, such as the Panama copper mine's environmental audit, the suspension of Teck Resources' expansion project in Peru, and the temporary shutdown of several mines in Chile and Indonesia. The output loss of Kamoa this year is expected to exceed 100,000 tons. The overall situation shows that the tight supply of copper concentrate continues [24][25]. 3.3.2 Domestic Output May Decline from the High Level, and the Release of Overseas Refined Copper Capacity is Restricted - In August, China's electrolytic copper output was 1.172 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.6%. However, due to the "770 Document" that restricts the production of scrap - copper enterprises, domestic refined copper output in September is expected to decline by 4% - 5% month - on - month, a reduction of about 50,000 - 80,000 tons. - Overseas, Glencore's two smelters in the Philippines and Chile have been shut down, resulting in an expected output loss of 300,000 tons this year. The new overseas refined copper production capacity in 2025 is expected to be 620,000 tons, but the actual increase is estimated to be only about 150,000 tons [31][32]. 3.3.3 Refined Copper Imports Gradually Recover, and the Yangshan Copper Premium in US Dollars Declines - From January to July, China's cumulative imports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, while the imports of copper ore and concentrate increased by 8.1%. The decline in refined copper imports narrowed to 6.4%, and the import volume in July increased by 8.2% year - on - year. In August, the export window gradually closed, and some overseas goods flowed back to the LME Asian warehouse. The Yangshan copper premium dropped significantly, and the US copper premium almost disappeared. The inflow of US scrap copper into China has decreased significantly [54][55]. 3.3.4 Overseas Inventory Flows to North America, and Domestic Inventory Enters a Low - Level Range - Since August, domestic inventory has remained in a low - level range of 120,000 - 150,000 tons. By August 29, the global visible inventory (including Shanghai bonded area) rebounded to 599,000 tons. The total inventory of the three major exchanges (LME, COMEX, and SHFE) increased by 70,000 tons to 516,000 tons. The COMEX inventory stopped increasing, and the LME inventory gradually recovered. The domestic copper visible inventory increased to 162,000 tons. It is expected that the global visible inventory will increase slightly in September, and domestic inventory may decline further due to the peak - season demand [58][60]. 3.3.5 Traditional Industries Enter the Peak Season, and the Growth of Emerging Industries (Except Photovoltaics) Remains Stable - Power grid investment - the total investment in the power grid by the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid in 2025 is expected to reach 80 billion yuan, an increase of 22 billion yuan compared to 2024. The construction of "5 direct - current and 2 alternating - current" UHV lines will start this year. The copper demand for power grid investment is expected to grow at a rate of 3% [65]. - Photovoltaic and wind power - from January to July, China's photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 80.7% year - on - year, but the growth rate slowed down significantly in July and August. The government is taking measures to regulate the photovoltaic industry, and the second - half installed capacity may decline sharply. The wind - power installed capacity increased by 79.4% from January to July, but the full - year forecast has been lowered. The copper demand for the wind - and - solar industries is expected to decline by 7% - 8% [66][69]. - Real estate - from January to July, China's real estate development investment decreased by 12% year - on - year. The decline in housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities narrowed. Policy support is expected to stabilize the real estate market, but the copper demand for real estate is expected to decline slightly by 2% - 3% [70][71]. - Air - conditioning - from January to July, China's air - conditioning production increased by 1.5% year - on - year. In September, the domestic and export production schedules of air - conditioners decreased compared to last year. The air - conditioning market faces challenges of weakening domestic and external demand [72][73]. - New - energy vehicles - from January to July, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales increased by 39.2% and 38.5% respectively. The export increased by 75.2%. With policy support, the copper demand for new - energy vehicles is expected to grow by more than 25% [74]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Macro - factors and fundamentals are expected to drive the copper price upward. The weak US dollar and tight supply - demand fundamentals will support the copper price. In September, the copper price is expected to oscillate upwards and may approach the first - half high if the interest rate cut is realized [77].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views - The US PPI in August significantly cooled down, with the month - on - month rate at -0.1% and the year - on - year rate at 2.6%, lower than expected. This strengthens the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. In China, the CPI in August was dragged down by food, while the core CPI reached a new high for the year. The PPI has established a repair direction, but the repair slope is expected to be gentle. The A - share market may enter a period of shock consolidation, and the bond market remains weak [2][3]. - Different commodities show various trends. Precious metals are at a high level, copper prices break through upwards, aluminum prices continue to be strong, alumina is under pressure, zinc prices oscillate at a low level, lead prices are weakly oscillating, tin prices stabilize and rise, industrial silicon rebounds, lithium carbonate prices oscillate, nickel prices continue to oscillate within a range, oil prices are in a downward trend with geopolitical risks, steel prices stabilize at a low level, iron ore prices are strongly oscillating, and agricultural product prices such as soybean meal and palm oil are also in different oscillation states [4][6][8][11] 3. Summary by Commodity Category Macro - Overseas: The US 8 - month PPI was much lower than expected, with the month - on - month rate at -0.1% and the year - on - year rate at 2.6%. The market continued to bet on interest rate cuts, the US bond yield declined, the US dollar index closed at 97.8, and stock indices reached new highs. Geopolitical risks and sanctions on Russian oil buyers promoted the rise of oil prices, and the gold price oscillated narrowly. The nomination of Fed governor nominee Milan was approved by the Senate Committee, and the judge stopped the dismissal of Cook, with the Trump administration appealing urgently [2]. - Domestic: In August, the CPI was dragged down by food to -0.4%, the core CPI rose to 0.9%, and the PPI was -2.9% year - on - year, narrowing from the previous value. The A - share market rose with shrinking volume, and the bond market remained weak. The 10Y and 30Y interest rates rose to 1.81% and 2.09% respectively [3]. Precious Metals - On Wednesday, international precious metal prices oscillated at a high level and closed slightly higher. The decline of the US PPI data strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, providing support for the precious metal market. The US 8 - month PPI decreased by 0.1% month - on - month and increased by 2.6% year - on - year, both lower than expected. Precious metal prices are expected to continue to operate at a high level, and it is not advisable to chase high in the short term [4][5]. Copper - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated strongly, and LME copper broke through the integer mark. The decline of the US PPI strengthened the expectation of the Fed's preventive interest rate cut. China's copper ore imports increased in August. In the short term, due to supply concerns and the arrival of the consumption peak season, copper prices are expected to remain strong at a high level [6][7]. Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20790 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The decline of the US PPI and Trump's pressure on the Fed strengthened the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, the proportion of molten aluminum increased, the supply of aluminum ingots decreased, and downstream consumption improved marginally. The aluminum market atmosphere is positive, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to continue its strong trend [8][9][10]. Alumina - On Wednesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2933 yuan/ton, down 0.37%. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation. The resumption of production of previously overhauled capacity and the possible inflow of imports may increase the supply pressure, and alumina is expected to continue its weak trend [11]. Zinc - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated strongly. The unexpected cooling of the US PPI strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, which boosted zinc prices. However, the fundamentals are still weak, and consumption improvement is not obvious. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [12]. Lead - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated weakly. The cost of recycled lead is loosening, and demand is not good. Although the supply is shrinking due to refinery overhauls, lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13]. Tin - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated strongly. The decline of the US dollar and technical support boosted tin prices. However, the recovery of Myanmar's tin mines is slower than expected, and domestic terminal demand is average. Tin prices are expected to stabilize and rise after technical support [14][15]. Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, the main contract of industrial silicon rebounded from a low level. The supply is in a passive contraction state, and demand has improved marginally. The social inventory has decreased, and the spot market has stabilized. Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - On Wednesday, the price of lithium carbonate opened lower with a gap and then ran strongly. Affected by the situation of lithium mines in Jiangxi, market sentiment fluctuates. Fundamentally, although it is the downstream peak - season stockpiling stage, supply remains high, and downstream is waiting and watching. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [18]. Nickel - On Wednesday, nickel prices oscillated strongly. The unexpected cooling of the US PPI and the call for interest rate cuts did not have a significant impact on nickel prices. The market has fully priced in the expectation of interest rate cuts in September. In the industry, the price of Indonesian nickel ore is stable, and the demand for raw materials from steel enterprises is not strong. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the RKAB approval in Indonesia [19][20]. Crude Oil - On Wednesday, oil prices oscillated strongly. The EIA crude oil inventory increased, and OPEC is discussing whether to gradually lift the production cut. Geopolitical risks may boost oil prices in the short term, but the fundamental situation is bearish. Oil prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the results of the OPEC meeting [21]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Wednesday, steel futures oscillated at a low level. Terminal demand is weak, and the spot market trading volume is low. After the concentrated resumption of production of northern steel mills, supply pressure increases. Steel prices are expected to stabilize at a low level and oscillate, and attention should be paid to the realization of demand [22]. Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron ore futures oscillated strongly. With the concentrated resumption of production of northern blast furnaces, there is a demand for replenishment. Although port inventory has increased, the supply pressure is not large. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate strongly [24]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the soybean meal and rapeseed meal contracts closed down. The precipitation in the eastern US soybean - producing area is less than average, and there is an expectation of a decrease in yield. Domestic spot supply is sufficient, and the basis is weak. The market is waiting for the USDA report, and soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. Palm Oil - On Wednesday, palm oil contracts closed down. The MPOB report showed an increase in inventory and production and a decrease in exports in August. High - frequency data also showed a decline in exports in early September. The market is affected by multiple factors, and palm oil prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, and attention should be paid to the lower support range [26][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas markets are trading the disappointing non - farm payroll data, fully pricing in a September Fed rate cut, with a 10% probability of a 50 - BP cut. The dollar index has fallen, and gold has reached a new high. Trump plans a "second - stage sanctions" on Russia, and the situation in Ukraine remains tense. In China, the August foreign trade data has cooled, but exports still have support in the second half of the year. The A - share market has rebounded, and the bond market is under pressure [2][3]. - Precious metals continue to rise, driven by weak US labor data and central bank gold purchases. Copper prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term due to a possible Fed rate cut and supply tightness. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate favorably as consumption improves marginally. Alumina prices are expected to continue to oscillate negatively, but the decline may be limited by warehouse receipts [4][6][8]. - Zinc prices are under pressure from high inventories but may be supported by seasonal demand. Lead prices are oscillating due to increased inventory and cost support. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at high levels with limited demand improvement. Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate due to supply - demand contradictions. Lithium carbonate prices may oscillate strongly due to futures - spot resonance [13][15][16]. - Nickel prices are oscillating due to the game between policy expectations and weak reality. Crude oil prices are oscillating due to geopolitical risks and supply - demand uncertainties. Steel prices are expected to oscillate and rebound as exports remain resilient. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate and rebound due to reduced overseas shipments and increased demand [21][22][24]. - Soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate as the US soybean good - rate is 64%, and domestic supply is sufficient. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate and adjust as the early - September production in Malaysia has declined and inventory has increased slightly [27][29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The market is trading the disappointing non - farm payroll data, with the probability of a 50 - BP rate cut in September rising to 10%. The dollar index has fallen to 97.3, the 10Y US Treasury yield has fallen to 4.04%, and the US stock market has reached a new high. Gold has reached a new high of 3646 dollars, and copper and oil have risen slightly. Trump plans a "second - stage sanctions" on Russia [2]. - Domestic: China's August exports and imports in US dollars have increased by 4.4% and 1.3% year - on - year respectively, both weaker than expected. The A - share market has rebounded, and the bond market is under pressure. The 10Y and 30Y bond yields have closed at 1.78% and 2.04% respectively [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures have continued to rise, with the COMEX gold futures rising 0.67% to 3677.60 dollars per ounce and the COMEX silver futures rising 0.93% to 41.94 dollars per ounce. Weak US labor data and central bank gold purchases are the main drivers [4]. 3.3 Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract has oscillated narrowly, and the LME copper has found support at 9900. The spot market trading has been light. The Fed rate cut is imminent, and the Panama copper mine is about to start an environmental audit. Copper prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract has closed at 20720 yuan per ton, up 0.24%. The LME aluminum has closed at 2609.5 dollars per ton, up 0.27%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory has increased slightly, and the aluminum rod inventory has decreased slightly. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate favorably [8][11]. 3.5 Alumina - The alumina futures main contract has closed at 2960 yuan per ton, down 0.84%. The spot price has fallen, and the theoretical import window has closed. The warehouse receipts inventory may limit the downward space [10][12]. 3.6 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract has oscillated, and the spot market trading has been average. The social inventory has increased to 15.21 million tons. Zinc prices are under pressure from high inventories but may be supported by seasonal demand [13][14]. 3.7 Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract has oscillated, and the social inventory has increased to 6.77 million tons. Lead prices are oscillating due to increased inventory and cost support [15]. 3.8 Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract has oscillated, and the social inventory has increased after four weeks of decline. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at high levels with limited demand improvement [16]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract has rebounded from a low level. The Xinjiang region's operating rate has risen to 62%, and the Sichuan - Yunnan region's operating rate has recovered limitedly. The market is in a state of supply - demand contradiction, and prices are expected to oscillate [17][18]. 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices have oscillated strongly, and the spot price has weakened. The 2511 contract has increased in positions. Lithium prices may oscillate strongly due to futures - spot resonance [19][20]. 3.11 Nickel - Nickel prices have oscillated weakly. The Indonesian APNI has lowered the September nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price. The market is in a game between policy expectations and weak reality, and prices are expected to oscillate [21]. 3.12 Crude Oil - Crude oil prices have oscillated. The US - Venezuela conflict and the Russia sanctions are the main geopolitical risks. The market has different views on OPEC+'s production increase plan. Oil prices are expected to oscillate due to geopolitical risks and supply - demand uncertainties [22][23]. 3.13 Steel - Steel futures have oscillated. China's August steel exports have decreased slightly month - on - month but still maintained a high growth rate. The demand has rebounded slightly, and the supply pressure of hot - rolled coils has increased. Steel prices are expected to oscillate and rebound [24]. 3.14 Iron Ore - Iron ore futures have oscillated and rebounded. Overseas shipments have decreased significantly this week, and the demand has increased due to the resumption of production of northern blast furnaces. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate and rebound [25]. 3.15 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal 01 contract has risen 0.75%, and the rapeseed meal 01 contract has risen 0.24%. The US soybean good - rate is 64%. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and prices are expected to oscillate [27][28]. 3.16 Palm Oil - The palm oil 01 contract has risen 0.11%. The Malaysian palm oil production from September 1 - 5 has decreased by 6.28% month - on - month. The inventory has increased slightly, and prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [29][30].