1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report After the temporary easing of trade relations, the "rush to export" effect and the increase in risk appetite put some pressure on the bond market. However, the continuous improvement of domestic demand still takes time, which limits the upward range of bond market yields. With limited incremental information recently, it is expected that bond market yields will fluctuate following the movement of capital prices [28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Event Reviews - **Economic Data**: In April, economic indicators in production, investment, and consumption showed marginal declines. Export - related industries were affected by tariffs, while high - tech and equipment manufacturing maintained high growth. In the future, "rush to export" may mainly involve inventory reduction, and tariff uncertainties still affect production and investment willingness. The expansion of domestic demand policies can boost consumption, but more employment and income - stabilizing policies are needed. These factors limit the upper limit of bond market yield fluctuations [9]. - **Fiscal Data**: In April, the marginal improvement of broad - based fiscal revenue was observed, and fiscal expenditure continued to increase. Public fiscal revenue improved, with the cumulative year - on - year decline of corporate income tax narrowing for the second consecutive month. Public fiscal expenditure focused on people's livelihood, while government - funded expenditure may be more inclined to "two important" and "two new" areas [10][11]. 3.2 Capital Price: DR007 First Rose and Then Fell During the statistical period, the central bank net - injected nearly 700 billion yuan. DR007 first rose due to the disturbance of treasury bond supply and then fell back. However, the inter - bank certificate of deposit yield increased again, mainly because the reduction of deposit interest rates led to deposit transfer, and banks faced greater pressure on liability outflows [12]. 3.3 Primary Market: The Issuance Scale of New Special Bonds Increased Marginally From May 16th to May 22nd, 109 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, with an actual issuance total of 897 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 633.9 billion yuan. The supply of treasury bonds was large, and the issuance of new special bonds increased marginally. The overall supply scale in May was controllable, but the disturbance of interest - rate bond supply still needed attention [19]. 3.4 Secondary Market: Interest Rates Showed Differentiated Performance During May 16th - May 22nd, the yields of treasury bonds with different maturities varied. The 10 - year treasury bond yield rose 4bp to 1.72%. After the reduction of LPR quotes and deposit interest rates, there was a profit - taking sentiment in the bond market. Subsequently, with limited incremental information, the bond market showed a wait - and - see attitude, and the trading volumes of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds decreased [20]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Fundamentals**: From May to July, the "rush to export" effect may become more obvious, mainly through inventory reduction, which has limited impact on domestic inflation. Domestic demand improvement takes time, and trade frictions may recur. Therefore, the upper limit of the long - term interest rate fluctuation range will not be too high [26][28]. - **Policy**: After the positive progress in Sino - US talks, the expectation of large - scale incremental policies has cooled. In terms of monetary policy, some banks have reduced deposit interest rates, which eases the pressure on bank spreads and suggests the possibility of further interest rate cuts (policy rates and LPR quotes) around August - September. The resumption of the central bank's open - market treasury bond trading operations is worthy of attention [28]. - **Capital**: When there is a lack of incremental information in the market, the impact of capital price fluctuations is crucial, especially at the end of the month when the supply pressure of interest - rate bonds is large [28].

Group 1: Corporate Pension System in China - The development of China's corporate pension system has gone through three stages over more than 20 years, with a scale reaching 3.6 trillion yuan by 2024, nearly half of the basic pension insurance in 2023. However, the participation rate is only 3.4%, which is low compared to OECD countries [3][4] - The U.S. corporate pension system has a long history, with a participation rate of 23.4% by 1970 and a scale of 22.4 trillion USD by 2023, accounting for 53.2% of the pension system. The asset allocation of private DB plans is approximately 6:3:1 for equities, fixed income, and other assets, while DC plans favor equities at a ratio of 8:1:1 [4] - Japan's corporate pension system, established in the 1960s, has a total scale of 92.8 trillion yen by March 2024, accounting for 26.2% of the pension system. The asset allocation is balanced for DB plans and more concentrated in high-yield assets for DC plans [5] - Learning from the U.S. and Japan, China's corporate pension system may optimize participation mechanisms, contribution confirmation, tax models, investment choices, and account management, which could lead to increased long-term capital inflow into the equity market [5] Group 2: A-Share Market Investment Strategy - In the past five trading days (May 16-22), major indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.02% and the ChiNext Index up 0.11%. The average daily trading volume decreased to 1.12 trillion yuan, down 127.85 billion yuan from the previous five days [6][7] - Economic growth remained stable in April, with fixed asset investment growing by 4.0% year-on-year, while retail sales increased by 5.1%. This stability is attributed to the effectiveness of previous macro policies [7] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced plans to improve merger and acquisition mechanisms to support the development of new productive forces, indicating a potential increase in M&A activities in the near future [7] - The market's future opportunities will depend on incremental changes, with a focus on high-quality development and structural layout. A "barbell" investment strategy is recommended, focusing on both high-dividend banking stocks and thematic investments in new consumption sectors [8] Group 3: Margin Trading and Securities Lending - In the week of May 14-20, major A-share indices mostly declined, with the Shanghai 50 index rising by 0.32% and the Sci-Tech 50 index falling by 1.19%. The total margin trading balance reached 1.80731 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.461 billion yuan from the previous week [9][10] - The sectors with the highest net buying in margin trading included automotive, non-bank financials, and machinery, while the computer, electronics, and telecommunications sectors saw lower net buying [10] - The top five stocks for net buying in margin trading were CITIC Securities, Dongfang Wealth, China Merchants Bank, Tonghua Golden Horse, and GF Securities [11]

Macro and Strategy Research - In the first four months of 2025, national general public budget revenue was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while expenditure was 93,581 billion yuan, an increase of 4.6% year-on-year [2] - Government fund budget revenue was 12,586 billion yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year, while expenditure was 26,136 billion yuan, up 17.7% year-on-year [2] Public Finance Income - Public finance income continued to show negative growth, but the decline narrowed compared to the first three months, with tax revenue's year-on-year decline narrowing by 1.4 percentage points to -2.1% [3] - Corporate income tax revenue's year-on-year decline narrowed by 3.7 percentage points to -3.1%, indicating a potential improvement in corporate profitability [3] - Non-tax revenue growth rate fell compared to the first three months, but the overall structure of public finance income improved [3] Public Finance Expenditure - Public finance expenditure grew by 4.6% year-on-year, with a notable increase in spending on people's livelihood, which rose by 6.6% [3] - Social security and employment spending increased by 8.5%, while education spending rose by 7.4% [3] - Infrastructure spending continued to show negative growth but the decline narrowed, with infrastructure spending now accounting for less than 20% of total public finance expenditure, a new low in recent years [3] Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue decreased by 6.7% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed compared to the first three months, with land transfer revenue's decline improving from -15.9% to -11.4% [4] - Government fund expenditure increased by 17.7% year-on-year, with central government expenditure growing by 75% and local government expenditure increasing by 16.6% [4] - The combination of public finance and government fund expenditure resulted in a year-on-year growth of 7.2% in broad fiscal expenditure [4] Industry Research - In April 2025, forklift sales reached 130,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 5.03% [6] - The operating rate of road construction equipment remained high, with significant growth in construction activity across 15 provinces [6] - Excavator sales from January to April totaled 83,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, indicating strong domestic market performance [6] Company Announcements - Zoomlion plans to acquire equity in Beijing Leasing through public bidding [6] - Xinjie Electric plans to establish an industrial investment partnership [6] Market Performance - From May 14 to May 20, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.05%, while the machinery equipment sector fell by 0.86%, underperforming the index by 0.91 percentage points [6] - As of May 20, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio for the machinery equipment sector was 26.91 times, with a valuation premium of 125.92% over the CSI 300 [6] Future Outlook - The demand for construction machinery is expected to improve due to ongoing construction projects and favorable weather conditions [6] - The production roadmap for Tesla's humanoid robots is becoming clearer, which may drive rapid development in the industry [7] - The industry maintains a "positive" rating, with recommendations to increase holdings in companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and others [6][7]

Macro and Strategy Research - In April 2025, the industrial added value increased by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 5.2% but lower than the previous value of 7.7% [2] - The retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.1% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 5.5% and previous 5.9% [2] - Fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, which is lower than both the expected 4.2% and the previous value of 4.2% [2] - The production growth rate of nearly 80% of industries slowed down due to tariff impacts, with industrial enterprises' export delivery value growth dropping significantly by 6.8 percentage points to 0.9% [2] - The service industry production index grew by 6.0% year-on-year, with modern service sectors like information technology and finance showing relatively fast growth [2] Consumption Trends - The year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods slowed down in April, primarily due to a decline in automobile consumption driven by price reductions [3] - The "old-for-new" policy continued to boost furniture and home appliance consumption, while rising gold prices increased jewelry consumption [3] - Service retail sales from January to April grew by 5.1% year-on-year, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales by 0.4 percentage points [3] - May is expected to see an increase in retail sales growth due to holiday consumption and the continuous refinement of national policies to expand domestic demand [3] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth slightly decreased in April, with manufacturing investment dropping by 1.0 percentage points to 8.2% year-on-year [4] - Infrastructure investment growth fell by 3.0 percentage points to 9.6%, with central government-led investments in electricity, heating, and water declining [4] - Real estate investment growth saw a year-on-year decline of 1.3 percentage points to -11.3%, with sales in major cities stabilizing [4] - The central bank's further reduction of mortgage rates may not yield immediate effects, and real estate investment growth is expected to remain at a low level until urban renewal projects progress [4] Fixed Income Research - The issuance scale of credit bonds decreased, with corporate bonds seeing zero issuance and a reduction in company bonds, medium-term notes, and directed tools [6] - The net financing amount of credit bonds decreased, with corporate bonds and short-term financing bonds showing negative net financing [6] - The secondary market saw an increase in transaction amounts, with credit bond yields showing differentiation [6] - The overall conditions for a bear market in credit bonds are not sufficient, and long-term yields are expected to enter a downward channel [6] Industry Research - The Guinea government has reclaimed 51 mining licenses, impacting the mining sector [10] - The steel industry faces short-term pressure due to increased rainfall in southern regions, affecting demand [10] - The copper market is influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and export behaviors, with prices expected to fluctuate [10] - The aluminum market is supported by improved US-China trade relations, but domestic demand is entering a low season [10] - The gold market may experience fluctuations influenced by US economic data and geopolitical situations [10] - The lithium market is facing oversupply, with export behaviors impacting demand [10]

Group 1: Fund Research - The stock market indices mostly rose last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 showing significant gains. Among 31 industry sectors, 22 experienced increases, with the top five being beauty care, non-bank financials, automotive, transportation, and chemicals. The bottom five sectors included computer, defense, media, electronics, and leisure services [2][3] - The net outflow of stock ETFs increased significantly, totaling 30.651 billion yuan, with the CSI 300 index experiencing the largest outflow of 5.153 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume for ETFs reached 246.616 billion yuan [3][4] - The average net value of equity funds rose by 0.56%, while bond funds showed mixed performance. The average net value of mixed bond funds increased by 0.03%, with a positive return ratio of 57.14% [3][4] Group 2: Industry Research - In April, retail sales of furniture increased by 26.9% year-on-year, driven by the domestic replacement policy, although the growth rate slowed compared to March. The contract liabilities of the customized home furnishing sector grew by 60.5% year-on-year, indicating potential improvement in company performance [5][6] - The easing of US-China tariff tensions has led to a decrease in costs for fluff pulp, benefiting the sanitary products industry. However, challenges remain for companies like Under Armour, which is undergoing a transformation [5][6] - The light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.25 percentage points, while the textile and apparel sector lagged by 0.10 percentage points during the period from May 12 to May 16 [6][7]

Macroeconomic Environment - The US CPI and core CPI growth rates in April were lower than expected, indicating that tariffs have not significantly pushed inflation upward [2] - Retail data in April showed a substantial slowdown, likely due to a decrease in preemptive purchases by households before tariff implementation [2] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is expected to remain cautious, with market predictions for interest rate cuts reduced from three to two [2] - In Europe, officials indicated that US tariff policies could lead to greater recessionary pressures in the Eurozone, potentially allowing for further interest rate cuts [2] Domestic Economic Conditions - China's CPI growth rate in April was negative for the third consecutive month, primarily affected by oil prices, while core CPI remained stable [3] - The PPI decline was exacerbated by falling prices in downstream industries due to tariff impacts [3] - Financial data showed an increase in social financing in April, supported by government bond issuance and a decline in credit bond rates, although corporate and household credit demand remained weak [3] - The central bank emphasized a flexible monetary policy approach, focusing on high-quality development to address external uncertainties [3] High-Frequency Data - Real estate transactions remained weak, while agricultural wholesale prices decreased [3] - Steel prices increased, but cement prices fell [3] - Upstream, coking coal and coke prices rose slightly, while non-ferrous metal prices generally increased [3] Fixed Income Market - The trade relationship has shown temporary easing, leading to upward pressure on interest rates [5] - In April, exports to the US saw a significant decline, but transshipment trade supported exports to ASEAN, which increased by 20.8% [6] - The central bank's net withdrawal of over 400 billion yuan did not prevent a decline in funding rates, with DR007 and DR001 falling to approximately 1.50% and 1.40% respectively [6] - The primary market saw 67 new bond issues totaling 946.4 billion yuan, with net financing of 658.7 billion yuan, indicating a higher than usual issuance pace [6] Market Outlook - The upcoming months may see a further manifestation of export rush effects, but domestic inflationary pressures are expected to remain limited [7] - The easing of large-scale policy expectations following positive developments in US-China talks may temper market sentiment [7] - The recent monetary policy adjustments are anticipated to lead to a downward shift in funding rate benchmarks, potentially limiting the rise in bond market yields [8]

晨会纪要（2025/05/16） 宏观及策略研究 外部环境显著改善，市场机会关注择时——A 股市场投资策略周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 4 晨会纪要（2025/05/16） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.16） 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（5 月 9 日-5 月 15 日），重要指数多数收涨；其中，上证综指收涨 0.86%，创业板指收涨 0.68%； 风格层面，沪深 300 收涨 1.41%，中证 500 收跌 1.01%。成交量方面有所缩量，两市统计区间内成交 6.26 万亿元，日均成交额达到 1.25 万亿元，较前三个交易日的日均成交额减少 1137.47 亿元。行业方面，申万一 级行业涨多跌少，其中，美容护理、银行、非银金融行业涨幅居前，而计算机、电子、国防军工行业跌幅 居前。 2、数据方面 2025 年 4 月社融同比多增超 1.2 万亿元，其中政府债券融资是主要支撑项，与 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market saw most major indices rise last week, with the ChiNext Index experiencing the largest increase of 3.82% [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.77%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.04%, the CSI 300 by 2.30%, the SSE 50 by 2.28%, and the CSI 500 by 0.72% [2] - As of May 13, the margin trading balance in the two markets was 1,804.849 billion yuan, an increase of 8.630 billion yuan from the previous week [2] - The average number of investors participating in margin trading was 350,743, up 12.32% from the previous week [2] Industry Insights - In April, excavator sales reached 22,100 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [5] - Loader sales in April totaled 11,700 units, with a year-on-year growth of 19.2% [5] - The cumulative sales of excavators from January to April were 83,500 units, up 21.4% year-on-year, with domestic sales accounting for 49,100 units, reflecting a 31.9% increase [6] - The average operating rate of construction machinery in the first quarter was 44.67%, with 12 provinces exceeding 50% [6] Company Announcements - China CNR Corporation disclosed recent major contracts totaling approximately 54.74 billion yuan [5] - Xuchang Investment plans to increase its stake in Huanghe Xuanfeng by 100 million to 200 million yuan [5] Stock Performance - From May 7 to May 13, the CSI 300 index rose by 2.30%, while the machinery equipment sector increased by 1.95%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.35 percentage points [5] - As of May 13, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the machinery equipment sector was 27.17 times, with a valuation premium of 128.62% over the CSI 300 [6] Future Outlook - The report maintains a "positive" outlook for the industry, highlighting the expected increase in demand for construction machinery driven by improved operating conditions [6] - Tesla's updates on humanoid robots indicate a clear path to mass production, potentially accelerating the development of the related industry chain [6] - The report recommends maintaining "overweight" ratings for companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, and China CNR Corporation [6]

Fixed Income Research - The issuance rates for credit bonds mostly increased, with an overall change range of 0 BP to 8 BP during the period from May 5 to May 11 [2] - The issuance scale of credit bonds increased on a month-on-month basis, with corporate bonds showing zero issuance while other varieties saw an increase in issuance amounts [2] - The net financing amount for credit bonds increased month-on-month, with corporate bonds showing negative net financing while other varieties showed positive net financing [2] - In the secondary market, the transaction amount of credit bonds increased month-on-month, with all varieties seeing an increase in transaction amounts [2] - The yield of credit bonds decreased across the board, with a relatively larger decline in the short end [2] - The credit spread showed differentiation among various types of bonds, with short-term spreads widening and medium to long-term spreads narrowing overall [2] - The report suggests that despite market fluctuations, the conditions for a comprehensive bear market in credit bonds are not sufficient, and future yields are expected to enter a downward channel [2] Industry Research - Metals - The steel industry is under significant profit pressure, with a projected year-on-year decline of 131.74% in net profit for 2024, while Q1 2025 shows a substantial recovery with a year-on-year increase of 549.88% [5] - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to see a year-on-year net profit growth of 1.77% in 2024, with a significant increase of 68.55% in Q1 2025 [6] - The precious metals sector performed well, with a year-on-year net profit increase of 40.68% in 2024 and 44.88% in Q1 2025, supported by geopolitical factors and central bank gold purchases [6][11] - The report highlights the strategic value reassessment of medium and heavy rare earths due to export control policies, leading to price increases in the overseas market [8][11] - The investment strategy suggests focusing on high-quality state-owned enterprises and bonds with strong guarantees, as well as considering opportunities in undervalued real estate bonds [3][5] Industry Research - Light Industry & Textiles - The light industry and textile sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the light industry gaining 3.02% and textiles gaining 3.47% during the period from May 5 to May 9 [12][13] - The report indicates a positive outlook for the home furnishing sector, with a significant increase in contract liabilities and cash flow from operating activities in Q1 2025 [14] - The easing of US-China tariff risks is expected to benefit export-oriented companies, improving export data and capacity utilization [13][14]

行 行业业绩综述 贵金属表现亮眼，中重稀土价格上涨 ——金属行业 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报综述 分析师： 张珂 SAC NO： S1150523120001 2025 年 05 月 13 日 钢铁 有色金属 投资要点： 证券分析师 张珂 zhangke@bhzq.com 整体看：2024 年钢铁行业盈利压力较大，行业归母净利同比下跌 131.74%， 行业整体处于亏损状态；2025 年 Q1 行业归母净利同比增长 549.88%，行业 业绩大幅好转。 分子板块：（1）冶钢原料：板块 24 年归母净利同比下降 38.56%，25 年 Q1 同比下降 29.03%，板块业绩未见明显好转；价格方面，24 年矿价整体震荡 下行，25 年 Q1 受缩减粗钢产量预期等因素影响价格依旧走弱。（2）普钢： 板块 24 年整体业绩亏损，而在 25 年 Q1 实现盈利，业绩好转；价格方面， 24 年钢价整体波动下行，25 年 Q1 受需求和美国关税问题影响依旧偏弱。 （3）特钢：24 年业绩在子板块中表现最好，25 年 Q1 归母净利同比增长 10.44%；价格方面，24 年不锈钢价格宽幅震荡，25 年 Q1 价格 ...