Market Overview - In the past five trading days (July 4 - July 10), major indices mostly rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.40% and the ChiNext Index rising by 1.18% [2] - The average daily trading volume decreased to 1.42 trillion yuan, down by 180.52 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [2] - Among industries, real estate, media, and comprehensive sectors saw the highest gains, while non-ferrous metals, defense, and home appliances experienced the largest declines [2] Inflation and Price Trends - On July 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released June inflation data, showing that the CPI year-on-year growth turned positive, with a marginal reduction in the month-on-month decline [2] - The PPI continued to decline both year-on-year and month-on-month in June, with expectations of ongoing negative growth due to global demand uncertainties and seasonal factors affecting domestic pricing [3] Policy Developments - The "anti-involution" initiative has expanded its scope, with preliminary effects observed. On July 7, 33 construction-related state-owned and private enterprises jointly called for resisting "involutionary" competition [3] - The solar industry has shown positive price signals, with polysilicon prices rising by 33.3% since the beginning of July, indicating a potential supply-side clearing [3] Investment Strategy - The decline in PPI indicates continued short-term profit pressures for companies, but the effectiveness of the "anti-involution" policy strengthens medium to long-term profit recovery expectations [4] - Future market trends will depend on the balance between weak short-term performance and strong long-term expectations, with potential for continued upward movement if economic data does not show significant decline [4] Industry Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the banking sector are driven by multiple measures to encourage insurance capital entry and a low interest rate environment [4] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to drive supply-side clearing, presenting recovery opportunities in the power equipment and building materials sectors [4] - The TMT sector, pharmaceuticals, and defense industries may present thematic investment opportunities due to AI trends and international expansion [4]

Macro and Strategy Research - In June 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from decline to increase year-on-year, with a smaller month-on-month decline. Key features include a limited drop in food prices due to high temperatures and increased rainfall, a rise in energy-related CPI driven by international oil price increases, and a notable rise in some industrial consumer goods prices, such as platinum jewelry and home appliances due to pre-"618" promotional activities [2][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw an expanded year-on-year decline in June 2025, with month-on-month performance remaining weak. This is attributed to seasonal price declines in domestic raw materials, increased green energy leading to lower coal prices, and pressure on prices in export-heavy industries due to slowing global trade growth [3][4] Financial Engineering Research - During the week of July 2 to July 8, 2025, major A-share indices mostly rose, with the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.54%. The margin trading balance reached 1,859.01 billion yuan, an increase of 10.32 billion yuan from the previous week, with a notable rise in financing balances [5][6] - The sectors with the highest net buying in margin trading included power equipment, computers, and public utilities, while banking, steel, and construction decoration sectors saw less net buying [6] Industry Research - In June 2025, the average working hours for major engineering machinery products was 77.2 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 9.11%. However, sales of excavators and loaders increased by 13.3% and 11.3% year-on-year, respectively [8][9] - A recent trade agreement between the US and Vietnam involves a 20% tariff on goods imported from Vietnam and a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam, which is expected to influence the export chain dynamics [9][10] - The machinery equipment industry maintained a "positive" rating, with recommendations to "overweight" stocks such as Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, and China CNR Corporation [10]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" [4] - The specific companies recommended for "Increase" rating are Sany Heavy Industry (600031), Zoomlion (000157), Hengli Hydraulic (601100), and CRRC (601766) [4] Core Viewpoints - The recent trade agreement between the US and Vietnam includes a 20% tariff on goods imported from Vietnam and a 40% tariff on goods transiting through Vietnam to the US, which is expected to influence export chains [3][36] - The average working hours for major construction machinery products in June 2025 were 77.2 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 9.11% [13] - Sales of various excavators in June 2025 reached 18,804 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [14] - Sales of various loaders in June 2025 reached 12,014 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [15] Industry Data - As of July 4, 2025, the steel composite price index (CSPI) was 90.53 [16] - As of July 8, 2025, the WTI and Brent crude oil prices were $67.93 per barrel and $69.58 per barrel, respectively [17] Company Announcements - Zhonghe Technology plans to establish an aerospace venture capital fund with professional investment institutions, with a total fund size of 50.05 million yuan [23] - Hangcha Group's subsidiary, Hangcha Intelligent, intends to acquire 99.23% of Guozhi Robot through a capital increase and share expansion [24] - Shandong Molong announced a forecast for its half-year performance in 2025, with a year-on-year decline in net profit of 92.36%-94.12% [25] Market Review - From July 2 to July 8, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.41%, while the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Industry increased by 0.42%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.99 percentage points [26] - As of July 8, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Industry was 26.93, with a valuation premium of 114.94% relative to the CSI 300 [27]

晨会纪要（2025/07/09） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 晨会纪要（2025/07/09） 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.07.09） 固定收益研究 收益率下行，评级利差普遍处于历史低位——信用债周报 行业研究 中央财经委会议释放"反内卷"新信号——金属行业 7 月投资策略展望 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 城投债方面，稳增长和防系统性风险的背景下，城投违约的可能性很低，城投债仍可作为信用债重点配置 品种。城投债大势将由化债与发展的合力决定，短期信用风险无虞，现阶段城投债策略依然可以积极。; 2、风险提示 固定收益研究 收益率下行，评级利差普遍处于历史低位——信用债周报 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 1、核心观点 本期（6 月 30 日至 7 月 6 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数下行，整体变化幅度为-14 BP ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the period from June 30 to July 6, the issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors mostly declined, with an overall change range of -14 BP to 2 BP. The issuance scale of credit bonds decreased month - on - month, while the net financing amount increased. In the secondary market, the trading volume of credit bonds decreased month - on - month, and the yields of all credit bonds declined. The credit spreads of medium - and short - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds mostly narrowed, and each rating was generally at a historical low [1]. - On July 2, the first batch of 10 Sci - tech Bond ETFs were approved and will be issued on July 7, with a maximum initial fundraising scale of 3 billion yuan each. Their investment opportunities are worth attention [2]. - With the optimization of real - estate policies, the real - estate market is moving towards stabilization. For real - estate bonds, investors with high risk tolerance can consider early layout, focusing on central and state - owned enterprises and high - quality private enterprise bonds with strong guarantees [2]. - In the context of stable growth and prevention of systemic risks, the probability of urban investment bond defaults is very low, and urban investment bonds can still be a key allocation variety [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Primary Market Situation 3.1.1 Issuance and Maturity Scale - From June 30 to July 6, a total of 221 credit bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 213.317 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 30.80%. The net financing amount was 94.097 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 105.798 billion yuan. Different bond types showed different trends in issuance and net financing [12]. 3.1.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors mostly declined, with different change ranges for different terms and ratings, from -14 BP to 2 BP [13]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation 3.2.1 Market Trading Volume - From June 30 to July 6, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 939.898 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 15.26%. The trading volume of short - term financing bills increased, while that of other varieties decreased [19]. 3.2.2 Credit Spreads - For medium - and short - term notes, most credit spreads narrowed. For enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds, similar trends were observed, with different changes in spreads for different terms and ratings [23][32][35]. 3.2.3 Term Spreads and Rating Spreads - For AA+ medium - and short - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds, term spreads and rating spreads showed different changes, and most were at historical lows [44][50][53]. 3.3 Credit Rating Adjustments and Default Bond Statistics 3.3.1 Credit Rating Adjustment Statistics - From June 30 to July 6, a total of 5 companies had their ratings (including outlooks) adjusted, with 2 downgraded and 3 upgraded [56]. 3.3.2 Default and Extension Bond Statistics - There were no credit bond defaults during this period. The credit bonds of Guangzhou Fangyuan Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. were extended, with a remaining balance of 918 million yuan [58]. 3.4 Investment Views - In the long run, the yield of credit bonds is still in a downward channel. When allocating, investors can wait for opportunities and increase allocation during adjustments, focusing on the coupon value of individual bonds. Currently, credit sinking is not effective, and high - grade 5 - year bonds can be considered first. Attention should also be paid to the impact of policies and market supply - demand on the bond market [1][59]. - The investment opportunities of Sci - tech Bond ETFs are worthy of attention. For real - estate bonds, high - risk - tolerance investors can consider early layout. Urban investment bonds can be a key allocation variety [2][3][60].

晨会纪要（2025/07/08） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.07.08） 基金研究 宽基指数资金大幅流出，主动权益基金仓位上升——公募基金周报 行业研究 美越关税落地，"反内卷"下关注造纸行业修复机会——轻工制造&纺织服饰 行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 基金研究 宽基指数资金大幅流出，主动权益基金仓位上升——公募基金周报 宋 旸（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150517100002） 张笑晨（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525070001） 1、本周市场回顾 本周，市场主要指数多数上调，沪深 300 在市盈率及市净率指数估值分位数方面涨幅居前。行业方面，31 个申万一级行业中 25 个行业上涨，涨幅前五的行业为钢铁、建筑材料、银行、医药生物和综合；跌幅前五 的行业为计算机、非银金融、美容护理、交通运输和商业贸易。 2、公募基金市场概况 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2025/07/08） 市 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The US core PCE in May slightly exceeded expectations, primarily driven by core services, while household income saw its largest decline in nearly a year due to reduced government transfers, impacting consumer spending negatively [2][3] - The manufacturing PMI in June remains in contraction territory, indicating cautious production outlooks among businesses due to insufficient orders and accelerating inflation expectations [2] - In Europe, inflation data showed a slight rebound driven by services, and the unemployment rate has slightly increased, which may influence ECB decisions amid ongoing US-EU tariff negotiations [3] Fixed Income Research - The June manufacturing PMI showed improvements in both domestic and external demand, but July's manufacturing sentiment may be constrained by weather factors [5] - After the quarter transition, the funding environment has turned more relaxed, with DR007 dropping below 1.50%, marking a new low for the year [5] - The issuance of bonds in the primary market slowed down, with a total issuance of 56 bonds amounting to 335 billion yuan, reflecting a significant drop in new local special bond issuance in early July [5] Industry Research - In May, the healthcare CPI rose by 0.3% year-on-year, while the pharmaceutical manufacturing PPI fell by 2.0% year-on-year, indicating challenges in the pharmaceutical sector [8] - The pharmaceutical sector saw a slight increase in the stock market, with the SW pharmaceutical industry PE ratio at 27.81 times, representing a 143% premium over the CSI 300 [9] - Recent policies have been introduced to support the pharmaceutical industry, including measures to optimize clinical trial reviews and approvals for innovative drugs, which are expected to enhance the sector's growth [10][11] - The recent approval of the first GCG/GLP-1 dual receptor agonist for weight control by domestic companies highlights the increasing innovation capabilities within China's pharmaceutical sector [10][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View of the Report The bond market is currently in a period of limited fundamental data and policy calm, lacking a clear main line. The liquidity situation is the key variable affecting the bond market. With loose liquidity at the beginning of the month, the bond market is expected to oscillate strongly. However, the current interest rate curve is relatively flat, and the downward space for long - term interest rates can only be opened after a further decline in short - term interest rates [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Important Event Review - **PMI Data**: In June, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively. The manufacturing production index rose 0.3 percentage points to 51.0%, and the new order index rose 0.4 percentage points to 50.2%. The new export order index rose 0.2 percentage points to 47.7%. The contraction of raw material purchase prices and ex - factory price indices slowed down. The destocking pace of raw materials and finished products slowed down. In non - manufacturing, the construction business activity index rose 1.8 percentage points to 52.8%, while the service business activity index dropped 0.1 percentage points to 50.1%. Considering the influence of high - temperature and typhoon weather, the manufacturing industry may face seasonal decline in economic prosperity [9]. 2. Funding Price - **Post - Quarter Funding Eased**: From June 27 to July 3, the central bank net - withdrew over 50 billion yuan in the open market. After the quarter, the funding situation returned to a loose state. DR007 fell below 1.50%, and R007 dropped to around 1.52%, both lower than the levels in the first half of June. The yield of 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit also dropped significantly, reaching a new low of around 1.61% [10]. 3. Primary Market - **Slower Issuance at the Beginning of the Quarter**: From June 27 to July 3, 56 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 335 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 202.1 billion yuan. The scale of newly - added local special bonds increased significantly at the end of June, possibly due to quarterly or semi - annual issuance progress requirements, and decreased significantly at the beginning of July [15]. 4. Secondary Market - **Strong Oscillation and Steeper Curve**: From June 27 to July 3, the yields of all - term treasury bonds declined, with relatively larger declines in medium - and short - term treasury bond yields, mainly driven by loose funding. The bond market had limited incremental information, and the interest rate oscillation range was small. In this market situation, investors pursued spreads such as those between new and old bonds [16]. 5. Market Outlook - **Fundamentals**: Recent incremental information mainly focuses on changes in the trade environment, such as the indirect impact of trade agreements between the US and other countries on China [21]. - **Policy**: At the central level, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1 discussed issues such as promoting the construction of a unified national market and high - quality development of the marine economy, which is helpful for improving the current low - inflation situation. In terms of monetary policy, compared with the first - quarter meeting, the second - quarter meeting communiqué had three main changes. The possibility of introducing incremental policies in July is limited, and the monetary policy mainly focuses on "implementing existing policies + flexible adjustment", with attention on open - market operations [22]. - **Funding**: Liquidity remains the key variable affecting the bond market. Liquidity is mainly loose at the beginning of the month, and the main point of contention is whether the central bank will buy short - term treasury bonds in the open market [22].

Industry Overview - The medical and biological industry is experiencing a policy-driven innovation development, with multiple supportive policies introduced to enhance the sector's health and growth [1][5][6] - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for healthcare was 100.3, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.3% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [14][21] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for pharmaceutical manufacturing was 98.0 in May, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.5% [21][23] Financial Performance - From January to May, the cumulative revenue of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry was 994.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, while the total profit was 135.32 billion yuan, down 4.7% year-on-year [23][29] - In May, the export value of medical instruments and devices was 1.637 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, while the cumulative export value for the year reached 7.946 billion USD, up 6.0% [29][30] Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.90% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 4.23% in June, while the medical and biological sector saw a modest increase of 0.70% [4][63] - As of June 30, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the medical and biological industry was 27.81, with a valuation premium of 143% compared to the CSI 300 index [4][69] Policy Developments - The National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) has proposed measures to optimize the clinical trial review and approval process for innovative drugs, aiming to complete reviews within 30 working days for eligible applications [5][76] - The State Council is working on optimizing the collection policies for drugs and consumables, emphasizing the need for better collaboration in the healthcare system and improving the compensation mechanisms for public hospitals [5][77] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities related to innovative drugs and their supply chains, particularly those showing performance recovery and benefiting from policy optimizations [6][78] - Specific sectors to watch include the CXO sector, which may benefit from improving overseas demand and order recovery, as well as the medical device and pharmaceutical sectors that are positively impacted by optimized procurement rules [6][78]

晨会纪要（2025/07/04） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.07.04） 宏观及策略研究 政策部署两大方向，短期市场强势震荡——A 股市场投资策略周报 基金研究 小盘成长风格表现突出，主动权益基金发行市场火热——公募基金 7 月月报 金融工程研究 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额小幅上升——融资融券 7 月月报 行业研究 证 国补夯实家居业绩改善基础，持续关注高景气的宠物食品行业——轻工制造 &纺织服饰行业 7 月投资策略展望 券 研 究 报 告 晨会纪要（2025/07/04） 宏观及策略研究 政策部署两大方向，短期市场强势震荡——A 股市场投资策略周报 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（6 月 2 ...