行 ――金属行业周报 分析师： 张珂 SAC NO： S1150523120001 2024 年 9 月 25 日 [Table_Author] 证券分析师 张珂 022-23839062 zhangke@bhzq.com [投资要点： Table_Summary] 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 [Table_Contactor] [Table 行业评级_IndInvest] 钢铁 中性 有色金属 看好 [Table_StkSuggest] 重点品种推荐 博威合金 增持 洛阳钼业 增持 中金黄金 增持 锡业股份 增持 紫金矿业 增持 告 业 研 [Table_MainInfo] 利好政策出台，市场信心提振 行业周报 究 钢铁：在旺季驱动下，需求仍有改善空间；国内地产政策再迎利好，短期有 望对钢价形成支撑。 铜：国内经济刺激政策提振市场情绪，叠加海外矿端扰动，短期有望支撑铜 价偏强运行。 铝：央行推出货币宽松政策提振市场情绪，旺季预期下基本面有望持续改善， 短期铝价或偏强运行。 锂：虽需求有改善预期，但当前锂行业供给过剩压力仍大，预计短期锂价维 持震荡。 本周策略 （1）铜：矿端干扰不断，铜精矿供应偏紧；美联储 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [4]. Core Insights - The company is a global leader in tire mold manufacturing, with a stable shareholding structure and a commitment to high dividends, reflecting long-term value [3][18]. - The tire mold market is estimated to exceed 10 billion, with the company holding a market share of approximately 33.97% in 2023, significantly outperforming competitors [4][29]. - The company is expanding its business into large components for wind power and gas turbines, with a focus on the growth of the gas turbine sector [5][32]. - The machine tool business is progressing steadily, with a notable increase in revenue from CNC machine tools [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, originally established as Shandong Gaomi Haomai Machinery Co., Ltd. in 1995, has evolved into a global leader in tire molds, with a stable shareholding structure and a commitment to high dividends [14][18]. Industry Background - The tire mold industry has a market size exceeding 10 billion, with the company being a key player. The demand for tire molds is driven by the automotive industry, particularly the growing electric vehicle segment [22][26]. - The industry is characterized by high customer and technical barriers, with the company leveraging advanced manufacturing technologies to maintain its competitive edge [25]. Financial Analysis - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance, with projected revenues of 82.93 billion, 94.45 billion, and 107.36 billion for 2024-2026, respectively [7][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 19.05 billion, 21.83 billion, and 24.87 billion during the same period [7]. Profit Forecast - The report forecasts a steady growth trajectory for the company, with an expected EPS of 2.38, 2.73, and 3.11 for 2024-2026 [7]. Valuation - The company is positioned in the mid-to-high-end market segment of the tire mold industry, with a strong focus on R&D and international expansion [29][31].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the Light Industry Manufacturing sector [1] - A "Buy" rating is recommended for Aima Technology (603529 SH) [1] Core Views - The domestic electric two-wheeler and three-wheeler industry is experiencing steady growth, with electric bicycles accounting for 88 67% of the market and electric motorcycles making up 11 33% [3] - In 2023, domestic electric two-wheeler sales reached 55 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9 78%, with a CAGR of 10 57% from 2019 to 2023 [3] - The market share of electric two-wheelers is increasingly concentrated among leading enterprises, with the top 4 listed companies holding a combined market share of 58 19% in 2023 [3] - Tianjin has become a significant base for the electric two-wheeler and three-wheeler industry, with its electric bicycle production accounting for 37 32% of the national total in 2023 [4] - The export potential for Tianjin's electric two-wheelers remains untapped, with exports accounting for only 8 41% of the national total in 2023 [5] - The electric two-wheeler battery swapping market is in its early stages, with a market size of 7 08 billion yuan in 2023, expected to exceed 20 billion yuan by 2026 [5] Domestic Electric Two-Wheeler and Three-Wheeler Industry - In 2023, domestic electric two-wheeler sales reached 55 million units, with a CAGR of 10 57% from 2019 to 2023 [3] - The electric two-wheeler market is dominated by electric bicycles, which account for 88 67% of the market, while electric motorcycles make up 11 33% [3] - The market share of electric two-wheelers is increasingly concentrated among leading enterprises, with the top 4 listed companies holding a combined market share of 58 19% in 2023 [3] - The electric three-wheeler market maintained a size of around 40 billion yuan in 2023, with sales of approximately 14 million units [12] Tianjin as a Key Industry Base - Tianjin's electric bicycle production accounted for 37 32% of the national total in 2023, with a CAGR of 19 79% from 2018 to 2023 [4] - Tianjin has a strong manufacturing foundation and a complete industrial chain, making it a key base for the electric two-wheeler and three-wheeler industry [4] - The city has attracted leading enterprises such as Aima, Yadea, and Tailg to set up production bases, further solidifying its position as a key industry hub [28] Export and Overseas Market Potential - In 2023, China's electric two-wheeler exports exceeded 15 million units, with Tianjin accounting for 8 41% of the national total [5] - The global electric two-wheeler market is expanding, with Europe and the US being the primary export markets, while Southeast Asia is seen as a potential growth market [5] - Leading companies such as Aima, Yadea, and Tailg have started production base layouts in Southeast Asia, enhancing their competitiveness in the region [44][45][46][47] Battery Swapping and Charging Infrastructure - The electric two-wheeler battery swapping market is in its early stages, with a market size of 7 08 billion yuan in 2023, expected to exceed 20 billion yuan by 2026 [5] - Tianjin is accelerating the construction of charging and swapping stations, aiming to add at least 100,000 new charging piles by 2030 [5] - The city has already established a significant presence in the battery swapping market, with 864 swapping stations and 1,200 swapping cabinets deployed as of May 2023 [56] Policy and Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government has strengthened regulations on the electric bicycle industry, optimizing the supply-side structure and stimulating domestic demand through policies such as "trade-in" programs [6] - Tianjin has introduced policies to promote the large-scale and standardized development of the electric two-wheeler and three-wheeler industry, including support for digital transformation and intelligent manufacturing [24][25]

行 告 业 研 [Table_MainInfo] 进入 9 月旺季，下游需求改善 行业周报 究 | --- | --- | |---------------------------|------------------| | 分析师： | 张珂 | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | | 张珂 | | | 022-23839062 | | | | zhangke@bhzq.com | | --- | --- | --- | |-----------|----------------|------------------------------| | | | ―― 金属行业周报 | | SAC NO ： | S1150523120001 | 2024 年 9 月 19 日 | | | | | 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 钢铁：在旺季驱动下，钢材基本面逐渐改善，目前市场有国庆节前备货预期， 短期有望对钢价形成支撑。 铜：市场对国庆节前的备库需求有一定的预期，预计国内铜库存有望继续去 库，进而给铜价带来支撑，需观察后续库存的去库力度和海外央行的货币政 策变化。 铝：据 SMM 消息，马来西亚齐力铝 ...

行 ――机械设备行业周报 [Table_Author] 证券分析师 宁前羽 022-23839174 ningqy@bhzq.com [Table_IndInvest] 子行业评级 通用设备 看好 专用设备 中性 交运设备 中性 工程机械 看好 自动化设备 看好 [Table 重点品种推荐 _StkSuggest] 三一重工 增持 中联重科 增持 中国中车 增持 -16.00% -14.00% -12.00% -10.00% -8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% [Table_Doc] 业 研 [Table_MainInfo] 8 月中国地区小松挖掘机开工小时数为 93.0 小时 究 分析师： 宁前羽 SAC NO： S1150522070001 2024 年 9 月 18 日 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 行业要闻 1) 8 月叉车销量为 9.89 万台，同比增长 1.26%。 2) 8 月中国地区小松挖掘机开工小时数为 93.0 小时，同比增长 3.3%。 公司公告 中联重科发布关于终止子公司分拆上市的提示性公告。 周行情回顾 2024 ...

行 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------|---------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------|---------------------------------------|--------------------| | 业 研 究 | [ 吨 able_MainInfo] \n分析师： 袁艺博 | | | SAC NO ： | 继续关注"以旧换新"和出口链 ―― \nS1150521120 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the steel sub-industry as **Neutral** and the non-ferrous metals sub-industry as **Positive** [2] Core Viewpoints - **Supply Constraints**: Global germanium (Ge) supply is rigid due to environmental policies, resource protection measures, and economic factors, with China being the largest producer [3] - **Demand Growth**: Germanium demand is increasing in high-tech fields such as fiber optics, infrared, and solar energy, driven by 5G, IoT, and satellite internet development [4] - **Price Elasticity**: Germanium prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints and growing demand, with a projected global supply-demand gap of 22.6 tons by 2026 [4] - **Strategic Importance**: Germanium is increasingly recognized as a strategic resource globally, with major economies like the US, EU, and Japan listing it as a critical mineral [10][11] Summary by Sections 1. Strategic Metal Resource – Germanium - Germanium is a rare metal with unique semiconductor properties, widely used in high-tech industries such as fiber optics, infrared optics, and solar energy [10] - It is classified as a strategic resource by major economies, including the US, EU, and Japan, due to its importance in defense and high-tech applications [10][11] - China has included germanium in its strategic key mineral list and imposed export restrictions in 2023 [12] 2. Germanium Resource Distribution and Supply - Global germanium reserves are concentrated in the US (45%) and China (41%), with total reserves estimated at 8,600 tons [3][22] - China dominates global germanium production, accounting for 67.86% of global output in 2021 [28] - China's export restrictions have led to a decline in germanium exports and an increase in export prices for certain products [31] 3. Demand Growth in Fiber Optics, Infrared, and Solar Energy - **Fiber Optics**: Germanium is used to enhance the refractive index in fiber optics, with demand driven by 5G network expansion and cloud computing [37][38] - **Infrared**: Military and civilian applications, such as night vision and thermal imaging, are boosting germanium demand in the infrared sector [42][44] - **Solar Energy**: Germanium is a key material in satellite solar cells, with demand expected to grow due to satellite internet projects like Starlink and China's GW and G60 plans [53][58] 4. Germanium Price Trends and Supply-Demand Forecast - Historical germanium prices have shown significant volatility, influenced by supply constraints, geopolitical events, and demand fluctuations [63] - Future supply is expected to remain tight due to environmental and export restrictions, while demand from fiber optics, infrared, and solar energy will drive price increases [67] - The global germanium supply-demand gap is projected to reach 22.6 tons by 2026, supporting strong price performance [67]

行 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------|---------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------|-- ...

行业周报 -20.00% -18.00% -16.00% -14.00% -12.00% -10.00% -8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% [Table_IndInvest] 业 研 [吨 able_MainInfo] 沪深加码以旧换新，电子烟新规出台 ――轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 分析师： 袁艺博 SAC NO： S1150521120002 2024 年 9 月 10 日 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | | 袁艺博 | | | 022-23839135 | | | yuanyb@bhzq.com | | [吨 able_Summary] 投资要点： 1）美国商务部对中、泰、越三国的纸餐盘作出反倾销初裁，倾销率最高达 1,039.05%。 2）母婴品牌 Babycare 旗下儿童运动户外品牌上市。 公司重要公告 1）奥瑞金：公司拟以 55.24 亿元收购中粮包装。 2）裕同科技：公司已累计回购 0.11%的股 ...

行 钢价维持震荡运行。 铜：美国就业数据不佳，加深市场对美国经济衰退的担忧，对铜价形成压制； 智利国家铜业委员会在最近的一份报告中表示铜矿紧缺的局面将继续延续； 下游需求表现一般，仍需观察旺季需求数据。 铝：铝土矿供应延续偏紧，下游电解铝厂生产持稳，氧化铝价格或维持强势， 需关注氧化铝企业复产进度及矿石供应影响；目前下游需求改善尚不明显， 预计短期电解铝价维持震荡。 业 行业周报 [Table_MainInfo] 美国就业数据不佳，压制工业金属价格 研 究 ――金属行业周报 分析师： 张珂 SAC NO： S1150523120001 2024 年 9 月 10 日 [Table_Author] 证券分析师 张珂 022-23839062 zhangke@bhzq.com [投资要点： Table_Summary] 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 钢铁：本周钢厂逐渐复产，需求表现一般，库存继续下降，钢价走弱；原料 价格下跌，成本支撑力度下降；仍需观察后续旺季需求数据表现，预计短期 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_IndQuotePic] 最近一季度行业相对走势 行 业 周 报 [Table_Contacto ...