Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that trade talks have provided positive sentiment, leading to a gradual easing of macroeconomic concerns [1]. - In the steel sector, demand may face short-term pressure due to increased rainfall in southern China, but potential economic stimulus policies could stabilize steel prices [3][4]. - For copper, supply tightness is expected due to the shutdown of the Antamina copper mine in Peru, while trade negotiations are improving market sentiment [3][4]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure from weakened downstream demand and adjusted tariffs, leading to expected price fluctuations [3][4]. - Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset is diminishing due to optimistic trade talks and easing geopolitical tensions, which may put downward pressure on gold prices [3][4]. - The lithium sector is facing oversupply issues, with prices expected to continue declining in the short term [3][4]. Industry Summary Steel - Steel inventory has shifted from decline to increase due to seasonal demand weakness during the May Day holiday, with total steel inventory at 14.73 million tons, a 1.36% increase from the previous week [17][27]. - The production of five major steel products was 8.74 million tons, a 0.22% decrease from the previous week [21]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 92.09% as of May 9 [25]. Copper - The LME copper spot price was $9,500 per ton, a 3.06% increase from April 30, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 31.96% [48]. - The report notes that the copper market is supported by supply constraints and positive macroeconomic sentiment [41][48]. Aluminum - The LME aluminum spot price was $2,400 per ton, a 0.17% decrease from April 30, with SHFE aluminum inventory down by 5.18% [51]. - The report indicates that aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to mixed market signals [50][51]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are under pressure, with COMEX gold closing at $3,329.10 per ounce, a 0.91% increase from April 30 [53]. - The report suggests that geopolitical developments are reducing gold's safe-haven appeal [53]. Lithium and New Energy Metals - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 67,500 yuan per ton, a 2.46% decrease from April 30 [57]. - The report anticipates continued price declines in the lithium market due to oversupply [56][57]. Rare Earths and Minor Metals - The price of light rare earth oxide praseodymium-neodymium was 423,000 yuan per ton, a 2.92% increase from April 30 [64].

编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.13） 宏观及策略研究 输入性因素拖累明显——2025 年 4 月物价数据点评 进出口增速均超预期——2025 年 4 月进出口数据点评 基金研究 国防军工领涨行业 ，公募高质量发展行动方案落地——公募基金周报 晨会纪要（2025/05/13） 输入性因素拖累明显——2025 年 4 月物价数据点评 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 1、CPI：食品和出行价格上行 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/05/13） 宏观及策略研究 2025 年 4 月 CPI 同比降幅持平，环比由降转涨。CPI 环比走高主要受食品价格和出行服务价格支撑，其中， 食品价格上行主要与牛肉进口量减少、部分地区 ...

晨会纪要（2025/05/12） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.12） 宏观及策略研究 情绪波动后的基本面博弈——2025 年 5 月宏观经济月报 固定收益研究 双降落地后，债市或回归基本面交易――利率债 5 月投资策略展望 行业研究 秘鲁安塔米拉铜矿停工，欧盟拟改变电车关税政策 ——金属行业 5 月投资策 略展望 轻工纺服一季度业绩均有承压，后续关注内需政策发力——轻工制造&纺织 服饰行业 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报业绩综述 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 要 晨会纪要（2025/05/12） 宏观及策略研究 情绪波动后的基本面博弈——2025 年 5 月宏观经济月报 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，S ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 5.4% year-on-year, indicating a strong start, particularly in the "two new and two heavy" sectors [2] - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in May, with expectations for the next cut potentially in July, while domestic liquidity is expected to become more abundant following the implementation of monetary policy adjustments [3] - A-share market liquidity has shown resilience due to structural support from central government funds and a potential end to the outflow of financing, creating new opportunities for inflows as new market themes emerge [3][4] - The performance of A-share companies in Q1 2025 showed a recovery in net profit growth, particularly among small and mid-cap stocks, indicating improved profitability [4] Industry Research - The engineering machinery sector has seen a significant increase in operating rates, with Q1 2025 excavator sales reaching 61,400 units, a 22.8% year-on-year increase, and domestic sales growing by 38.3% [6] - The average operating rate for engineering machinery in Q1 2025 was 44.67%, with 12 provinces exceeding 50%, indicating a positive trend in demand as the traditional peak season approaches [6] - Tesla's humanoid robot production is expected to ramp up significantly, with thousands of units planned for 2025 and a projected annual output of one million by 2029 or 2030, suggesting potential growth in the robotics sector [7] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the engineering machinery industry, recommending increased holdings in companies such as Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and others [7]

Fixed Income Research - In April, the issuance guidance rates for all maturities declined, with an overall change of -14 BP to -4 BP. The issuance scale of credit bonds increased month-on-month, while the issuance amount of targeted tools decreased. The net financing amount of credit bonds increased, with corporate bonds, targeted tools showing negative net financing, while company bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds showed positive net financing [3] - The secondary market saw a decrease in the transaction scale of credit bonds in April, with short-term financing bonds seeing an increase in transaction amounts. The overall yield of credit bonds declined, with a more significant decrease in the short end. Credit spreads for most medium-term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds narrowed, but the credit spread for 7-year bonds widened [3] - The report suggests that the overall conditions for a bear market in credit bonds are not sufficient, and long-term yields are expected to enter a downward channel. The strategy of increasing allocation during adjustments remains feasible, while the short-end credit spread has limited compression space, suggesting waiting for better allocation opportunities [3] Company Research - The company reported a revenue of 65.556 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.386 billion yuan, up 13.71% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 14.859 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.88%, and a net profit of 1.038 billion yuan, up 32.65% year-on-year [14][15] - The increase in metal prices supported the company's performance in 2024, with the average closing price of COMEX gold increasing by 38.30% and copper by 14.42%. The company produced 18.35 tons of gold and 8.20 million tons of copper in 2024, with a slight increase in gold and copper production in Q1 2025 [15][16] - The company is progressing well with key projects, including the deep resource mining project in Inner Mongolia and the construction of the Laizhou Huijin Saling Gold Mine. The company plans to produce 18.17 tons of gold and 7.94 million tons of copper in 2025, with significant resource additions expected [16][17]

Macro and Strategy Research - In Q1 2025, the overall A-share market showed a significant improvement in net profit margin, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% in net profit, reversing from negative growth in the previous quarter [2] - The revenue growth rate for the overall A-share market declined by 0.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points compared to Q4 2024 [2] - The performance across different sectors varied, with only the main board experiencing a revenue decline, while net profit growth improved across all sectors [2][3] Industry Research - In Q1 2025, upstream resource sectors saw a decline in net profit growth, while midstream materials showed marginal improvement [3] - The prices of non-ferrous metals like copper and tin increased significantly, supporting the net profit growth in the non-ferrous metal industry [3] - The coal and petrochemical sectors experienced a decline in net profit growth due to price pressures, while the steel and construction materials sectors benefited from lower raw material and energy costs [3] - The consumer sector showed notable improvement, particularly in the social services industry, which saw a significant recovery in net profit growth due to enhanced consumption policies [3] Company Research - China Aluminum (601600) reported a revenue of 55.784 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.95%, and a net profit of 3.538 billion yuan, up 58.78% [14] - The increase in production and prices of aluminum and alumina products contributed to the company's strong performance [14][17] - The controlling shareholder, China Aluminum Group, announced a plan to increase its stake in the company, reflecting confidence in its future development [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last month, most of the market's major index valuations were adjusted downward. In terms of price - to - earnings ratio, the historical percentile of the ChiNext Index and CSI 300 dropped to 4.5% and 44.4% respectively. In terms of price - to - book ratio, only the Sci - Tech Innovation 50's valuation percentile increased to 36.1%. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, only 4 industries rose [1]. - In April, 76 new funds were issued with a scale of 583.80 billion yuan. The issuance of active equity funds was cold, while the issuance share of passive equity funds increased slightly. Only commodity funds and pure - bond funds rose, with growth rates of 4.53% and 0.52% respectively. Growth style underperformed value style, and large - cap style was inferior to small - cap style. The position of active equity funds on April 30, 2025 was 81.17%, a decrease of 0.69pct from the previous month [2]. - In the ETF market, equity ETFs had the highest net inflow, reaching 18.2928 billion yuan. Most broad - based indexes had large net inflows, and some ETFs had significant gains or losses [3]. - In April, the risk - parity model dropped 0.09%, and the risk - budget model dropped 0.61% [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Month's Market Review 1.1 Domestic Market Situation - In April, the major indexes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets fluctuated and retreated. The ChiNext Index fell by more than 7%, and the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 had the smallest decline of 1.01%. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, only 4 industries rose, while the top 5 decliners were electrical equipment, communication, household appliances, computer, and electronics. In the bond market, the ChinaBond Composite Full - Price Index rose 0.95%, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 1.31%. In the commodity market, the Nanhua Commodity Index fell 5.01% [12]. 1.2欧美及亚太市场情况 - In April, the European, American, and Asia - Pacific markets showed mixed performance. The S&P 500 fell 0.37%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.22%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.85%. In the European market, the French CAC 40 fell 2.53%, and the German DAX rose 1.50%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Hang Seng Index fell 4.33%, and the Nikkei 225 rose 1.20% [17]. 1.3 Market Valuation Situation - Last month, most of the market's major index valuations were adjusted downward. The historical percentile of the ChiNext Index and CSI 300's price - to - earnings ratio dropped by 11.5pct and 8.0pct respectively. Only the Sci - Tech Innovation 50's price - to - book ratio percentile increased by 0.2pct to 36.1%. The industries with the highest historical percentile of price - to - earnings ratio were real estate, steel, building materials, automobiles, and commercial trade, while those with the lowest were non - bank finance, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, non - ferrous metals, light industry manufacturing, and electrical equipment [20]. 2. Overall Situation of Public Funds 2.1 Fund Issuance Situation - In April, 76 new funds were issued with a scale of 583.80 billion yuan. Among them, 6 active equity funds were issued with a scale of 14.76 billion yuan, and 53 index funds were issued with a scale of 282.19 billion yuan. The issuance of active equity funds was cold, while the issuance share of passive equity funds increased slightly [2][28]. 2.2 Fund Market Return Situation - In April, only commodity funds and pure - bond funds rose, with growth rates of 4.53% and 0.52% respectively. The pure - bond funds had the highest positive - return ratio of 98.30%. Growth style underperformed value style, and large - cap style was inferior to small - cap style. Generally, small - cap growth style was relatively resistant to decline, while large - cap growth style had the largest decline. Larger - scale funds in the equity market generally performed better [2][35]. 2.3 Active Equity Fund Position Situation - The position of active equity funds on April 30, 2025 was 81.17%, a decrease of 0.69pct from the previous month [40]. 3. ETF Fund Situation - Equity ETFs had the highest net inflow, reaching 18.2928 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume of the overall ETF market was 258.712 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume was 163.29 billion shares, and the average daily turnover rate was 9.72%. Most broad - based indexes had large net inflows. Some ETFs had significant gains or losses, and there were differences in capital inflows and outflows among different ETFs [3][44]. 4. Model Operation Situation - In April, the risk - parity model dropped 0.09%, and the risk - budget model dropped 0.61%. Since 2015, the risk - parity model has had an annualized return of 4.46% and a maximum drawdown of 2.31%; the risk - budget model has had an annualized return of 3.99% and a maximum drawdown of 9.80%. Next month, the asset - allocation weights of the models remain unchanged [4][55].

| 略 | | 投资策略 | | --- | --- | --- | | | [Table_MainInfo] 全 A | 净利边际改善，价格和政策有支撑的领域占优 | | 研 | | ——A 股市场 2025 年一季报业绩综述 | | 究 | 分析师： 宋亦威 | SAC NO： S1150514080001 2025 年 05 月 06 日 | | | [Table_Analysis] 证券分析师 | [Table_Summary] | | | 宋亦威 | 投资要点： | | | 022-23861608 |  2025Q1 全 A 单季营收同比增速较 2024Q4 出现回落，而单季归母净利 | | | songyw@bhzq.com | 同比增速由负转正显著改善。具体而言，2025Q1 全 单季营收和净利 A | | | [Table_Author] 严佩佩 | | | | | 同比增速分别为-0.2%/3.7%，前者较 2024Q4 回落 1.7 个百分点，后者 | | | 022-23839070 SAC No:S1150520110001 | 较 2024Q4 回升 17.5 个百分点。 | | ...

Macro and Strategy Research - In April 2025, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, influenced by high base effects and external environmental changes [2][3] - The production index decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 49.8%, while the new orders index fell by 2.6 percentage points to 49.2%, reflecting a slowdown in both production and demand [3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index also declined by 0.4 percentage points to 50.4%, with the construction sector remaining in expansion territory [4] Company Research: Aorijin (002701) - Aorijin reported a slight revenue decline of 1.23% to 13.673 billion yuan in 2024, but net profit increased by 2.06% to 791 million yuan [6][8] - In Q1 2025, revenue surged by 56.96% to 5.574 billion yuan, and net profit skyrocketed by 137.91% to 665 million yuan [6][8] - The company successfully consolidated its financials with COFCO Packaging, significantly boosting its asset scale by 83.13% [8] Company Research: Oppein Home (603833) - Oppein Home's Q1 2025 revenue decreased by 4.80% to 3.447 billion yuan, while net profit increased by 41.29% to 308 million yuan [11][12] - The company improved its profitability through supply chain reforms and automation upgrades, with gross margin rising by 4.31 percentage points to 34.29% [13] - Contract liabilities grew by 168.51% year-on-year, indicating strong future revenue potential [13] Company Research: Sophia (002572) - Sophia's 2024 revenue fell by 10.04% to 10.494 billion yuan, but net profit rose by 8.69% to 1.371 billion yuan [16][17] - The company experienced a significant decline in Q1 2025 net profit by 92.69% to 12.1 million yuan, primarily due to high base effects and a drop in the fair value of investments [16][17] - The implementation of a whole-house customization strategy has led to a steady increase in average transaction value [17][18]

公 公司点评 司 一季度利润增长超 40%，今年业绩向好可期待 研 ——欧派家居(603833)2025 年一季报点评 | 究 分析师： 袁艺博 SAC NO： S1150521120002 年 | | --- | | 2025 | | 04 | | 月 | | 30 日 | 轻工制造-------定制家居 证券分析师 袁艺博 yuanyb@bhzq.com 022-23839135 | 上次评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | | 最新收盘价： | 64.92 | 研 评 善，期待今年逐步复苏——欧 派家居（603833）事件点评 评 2024.10.29 盈利预测与评级 2025.01.20 单季度经营边际有改善，期待 后续逐步复苏——欧派家居 （603833）2024 年三季报点 公司作为行业龙头，大家居战略深化推进，并持续提升经营质量。在中性情 景下，我们维持公司 2025-2027 年 EPS 为 4.54 元/4.84 元/5.17 元的预测，对 应 2025 年 PE 为 14.31 倍，高于可比公司均值，但考虑到公司为行业龙头企 业，可享有一定估值溢价，故维持"增持"评级。 风险提 ...