Industry Overview - The domestic furniture industry showed significant growth in the first five months of 2025, with retail sales totaling 75.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.40% [2][19] - The furniture manufacturing sector experienced a revenue decline of 3.90%, totaling 248.87 billion yuan [19] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has effectively stimulated consumer spending, leading to rapid sales growth in related products [19] Market Performance - From June 2 to June 30, the light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.12 percentage points, with a return of 3.62% compared to the index's 2.50% [4][49] - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.56 percentage points, achieving a return of 1.94% [4][53] Strategic Recommendations - The report recommends increasing holdings in several companies, including Oppein Home (增持), Sophia (增持), Semir Apparel (增持), Pathfinder (增持), and Guibao Pet (增持) [6][55] - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to continue driving growth in the home goods sector, with central government funding of 138 billion yuan allocated for the third and fourth quarters [6][57] Key Data Points - In May, furniture exports amounted to 5.637 billion USD, a year-on-year decrease of 9.40% [21][58] - The pet food industry saw a significant increase in sales during the "618" shopping festival, with total sales reaching 7.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 36.36% [6][57] - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles totaled 613.84 billion yuan in the first five months, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.30% [2][40]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In June, all major market indices' valuations were adjusted upwards. In terms of price - to - earnings ratio and price - to - book ratio, the historical percentile increases of CSI 300 and CSI All - Share were among the top, while the ChiNext Index remained at a historical low. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 23 industries rose, with the top 5 gainers being communication, national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, electronics, and media; the top 5 losers were food and beverage, beauty care, household appliances, coal, and transportation [1]. - In June, 70 new funds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 62.728 billion yuan. The issuance of active equity funds was booming, while the issuance of passive equity funds decreased slightly. Only commodity - type funds declined, with a 1.66% drop, and the largest gain was in equity - biased funds, up 2.68% [2]. - From the perspective of fund style indices, the growth style outperformed the value style, and the large - cap style underperformed the small - cap style. Overall, the mid - cap growth style performed outstandingly, rising 5.83%, while the large - cap value style had the smallest increase, about 2.52% [2]. - In the ETF market, last month, there was a net inflow of 59.605 billion yuan. Bond - type ETFs had a net inflow of over 90 billion yuan, and stock - type ETFs had a net outflow of 31.54 billion yuan [3]. - In June, the risk - parity model rose 1.59%, and the risk - budget model rose 2.34% [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Month's Market Review 1.1 Domestic Market Situation - In June, all major indices in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose. The ChiNext Index rose by over 8%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and CSI 500 rose by over 4%. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 23 industries rose. The top 5 gainers were communication, national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, electronics, and media; the top 5 losers were food and beverage, beauty care, household appliances, coal, and transportation. In the bond market, the ChinaBond Composite Full - Price Index rose 0.31%, and the total full - price indices of ChinaBond Treasury bonds, financial bonds, and credit bonds rose between 0.13% and 0.40%. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 3.34%. In the commodity market, the Nanhua Commodity Index rose 4.03% [13]. 1.2 European, American, and Asia - Pacific Market Situation - In June, most European, American, and Asia - Pacific markets rose. In the US stock market, the S&P 500 rose 4.89%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 4.21%, and the Nasdaq rose 6.57%. In the European market, the French CAC 40 fell 1.11%, and the German DAX fell 0.37%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Hang Seng Index rose 3.36%, and the Nikkei 225 rose 6.64% [21]. 1.3 Market Valuation Situation - In June, all major market indices' valuations were adjusted upwards. In terms of price - to - earnings ratio and price - to - book ratio, the historical percentile increases of CSI 300 and CSI All - Share were among the top, while the ChiNext Index remained at a historical low. Among industries, the top five industries with the highest historical percentiles of price - to - earnings ratio in the Shenwan primary index last month were real estate, banking, automotive, chemical, and electronics. The real estate industry's price - to - earnings ratio percentile reached 96.6%. The five industries with lower historical percentiles of price - to - earnings ratio were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, non - bank finance, food and beverage, light manufacturing, and household appliances, all with percentiles less than 25% [24]. 2. Overall Situation of Public Offering Funds 2.1 Fund Issuance Situation - In June, 70 new funds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 62.728 billion yuan. Among them, 33 stock - type funds were issued with a scale of 11.646 billion yuan; 14 hybrid funds were issued with a scale of 6.317 billion yuan; 14 bond - type funds were issued with a scale of 35.293 billion yuan; 4 FOF funds were issued with a scale of 7.5 billion yuan; 3 REITs funds were issued with a scale of 1.3 billion yuan; and 2 QDII funds were issued with a scale of 0.67 billion yuan. A total of 17 active equity funds were issued with a scale of 6.738 billion yuan, and 36 index funds were issued with a scale of 28.472 billion yuan. The issuance of active equity funds increased significantly, while that of passive equity funds decreased slightly [32]. 2.2 Fund Market Return Situation - In June, only commodity - type funds declined, with a 1.66% drop, and the largest gain was in equity - biased funds, up 2.68%, with a positive return ratio of 97.63%. From the perspective of fund style indices, the growth style outperformed the value style, and the large - cap style underperformed the small - cap style. The mid - cap growth style performed outstandingly, rising 5.83%, while the large - cap value style had the smallest increase, about 2.52%. Generally, smaller - scale funds in the equity market performed better. The large - scale funds with a scale of 4 - 10 billion had the largest average increase of 2.80%, with a positive return ratio of 97.52%, while the super - large - scale funds over 10 billion had the smallest increase of 2.16%, with a positive return ratio of 88.46% [2][40][43]. 2.3 Active Equity Fund Position Situation - Using Lasso regression to measure the positions of active equity funds, the position on June 30, 2025, was 75.44%, a decrease of 3.76 percentage points from the previous month [47]. 3. ETF Fund Situation - In the ETF market, last month, there was a net inflow of 59.605 billion yuan. Bond - type ETFs had a net inflow of over 90 billion yuan, and stock - type ETFs had a net outflow of 31.54 billion yuan, with funds flowing from broad - based indices such as CSI 300 to bond funds. In terms of liquidity, the average daily trading volume of the overall ETF market this period reached 265.76 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume reached 126.808 billion shares, and the average daily turnover rate reached 8.59%. At the individual bond level, most broad - based index targets had net outflows except for the CSI A500 Index. Huatai - PineBridge CSI 300 ETF had a net outflow of 5.45 billion yuan, while Huatai - PineBridge CSI A500 ETF had a net inflow of 13.54 billion yuan. Among the most actively traded targets, Financial Technology ETF, Hong Kong Securities ETF, Communication Equipment ETF, ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF Huabao, and 5G ETF had the highest monthly gains, rising between 15.7% and 18.8%. Food and Beverage ETF, Consumption 30 ETF, Wine ETF, Leading Home Appliance ETF, and Southeast Asia Technology ETF had the highest monthly losses, falling between 1.6% and 4.4%. In terms of fund flow, the top funds with net inflows also included Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovation Pharmaceutical ETF, Bank ETF, A500ETF Harvest, and Hong Kong Non - Bank ETF; the top funds with net outflows also included CSI 300ETF E Fund, ChiNext ETF, Harvest CSI 300ETF, and CSI A500ETF Fullgoal [3][51][52]. 4. Model Operation Situation - Four types of large - asset allocation models were constructed using stocks, bonds, commodities, and QDII. In June, the risk - parity model rose 1.59%, and the risk - budget model rose 2.34%. Since 2015, the annualized return of the risk - parity model has been 4.64%, with a maximum drawdown of 2.31%; the annualized return of the risk - budget model has been 4.45%, with a maximum drawdown of 9.80%. Next month, the asset allocation weights of the models remain unchanged. For the risk - parity model, the ratio of stocks: bonds: commodities: QDII is 6%: 70%: 12%: 11%; for the risk - budget model, it is 13%: 52%: 9%: 25% [62][63][65].

Fixed Income Research - The overall yield of credit bonds decreased in June, with most issuance rates down by -16 BP to 4 BP, and the issuance scale of credit bonds increased month-on-month [3] - The net financing amount of credit bonds increased, with corporate bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds showing positive net financing, while enterprise bonds and targeted tools showed negative net financing [3] - The credit spread remained stable with a slight contraction in most categories, and the AAA-rated 3-year and 5-year bonds are still at a relatively high percentile, indicating potential for slight compression [3] - The report suggests a strategy of increasing allocation during market adjustments, focusing on the trend of interest rate bonds and the coupon value of individual bonds [3] Financial Engineering Research - All major indices in the A-share market rose last week, with the ChiNext Index showing the largest increase of 4.06%, while the Shanghai Composite Index had the smallest increase of 0.07% [5] - The margin balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased to 1,848.694 billion yuan, with a notable increase in the financing balance [7] - Non-bank financial, electronics, and computer sectors saw significant net buying, while oil, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical sectors had less net buying [7] Industry Research - The central bank's proactive signals and easing Middle East tensions are positively impacting the metal industry [9] - Steel demand is expected to weaken due to weather factors, but the decline is anticipated to be limited, while raw material prices are decreasing [9] - Copper prices are supported by tight supply and low inventory, but trade uncertainties remain a concern [9] - The gold market may see reduced demand due to easing geopolitical tensions, with future price influences from economic data and geopolitical situations [10] - The rare earth market is at a cyclical low, but policies are optimizing supply, with new demand from humanoid robots and new energy sectors [10] Mechanical Equipment Industry - The mechanical equipment sector outperformed the broader market, with a 2.85% increase in the index compared to a 2.67% rise in the CSI 300 [13] - Excavator sales in May showed a slight year-on-year increase, but domestic sales declined, attributed to seasonal factors [13] - The successful hosting of the humanoid robot exhibition indicates a trend towards mass production, suggesting investment opportunities in this sector [14]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Neutral" while the non-ferrous metals industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the central bank's liquidity release is stabilizing market expectations, with the steel demand expected to weaken further but with limited downside [14] - For copper, tight supply and low inventory are supporting prices, but trade uncertainties and seasonal demand weakness are concerns [39] - The aluminum market is facing macro uncertainties, but low domestic inventory is providing some support for prices [46] - Gold demand is expected to weaken due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with future price influences from economic data and geopolitical factors [51] - The lithium market is under pressure from oversupply, with prices expected to remain weak [56] Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The report notes that steel inventory is increasing as the off-season deepens, with a marginal increase in fundamental pressure [14] - As of June 27, the total steel inventory was 13.325 million tons, a 0.02% increase from the previous week but a 23.42% decrease year-on-year [25] - The average price index for steel on June 27 was 3,344.56 CNY/ton, down 0.49% from the previous week [37] Copper Industry - The report indicates that copper prices are supported by tight supply and low inventory, with LME copper prices at 10,100 USD/ton and domestic prices at 80,300 CNY/ton as of June 27 [42] - The copper refining fees were reported at -43.57 USD/ton and -4.36 cents/pound [40] Aluminum Industry - The aluminum market is characterized by stable production and seasonal demand weakness, with LME aluminum prices at 2,600 USD/ton and domestic prices at 20,900 CNY/ton as of June 27 [47] - The report mentions that the average price of alumina was 3,121 CNY/ton, down 2.38% from the previous week [47] Precious Metals - The report states that gold prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions, with COMEX gold closing at 3,286.10 USD/ounce and SHFE gold at 768.64 CNY/gram on June 27 [51] - Silver prices showed a slight increase, with COMEX silver at 36.17 USD/ounce and SHFE silver at 8,792.00 CNY/kg [51] New Energy Metals - The lithium market is facing oversupply, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 60,400 CNY/ton, a 0.33% increase from the previous week [57] - The report indicates that the supply pressure in the lithium market is expected to continue [56] Rare Earth and Minor Metals - The report notes that light rare earth prices are at 444,500 CNY/ton, with a slight increase, while heavy rare earth prices have seen a decrease [69] - Tungsten concentrate prices are stable at 172,000 CNY/ton, while APT prices have decreased slightly [73]

Core Insights - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, with a focus on the production rhythm of humanoid robots and the potential investment opportunities in the industry chain [8][70][71] - The report recommends "overweight" ratings for specific companies including SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Hengli Hydraulic, and CRRC [2][71] Industry Overview - In May 2025, excavator sales reached 18,202 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.12%, with domestic sales at 8,392 units, down 1.48% [7][24][70] - The report highlights that the domestic construction machinery market is currently in a renewal cycle, with urban renewal initiatives expected to drive steady demand for engineering machinery [70][71] - The humanoid robot industry is progressing well, with major manufacturers like Tesla clarifying their mass production routes, which is anticipated to accelerate the development of the industry chain [70][71] Market Performance - From June 1 to July 1, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 2.67%, while the Shenwan Mechanical Equipment industry increased by 2.85%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 0.18 percentage points [5][59] - As of July 1, 2025, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the Shenwan Mechanical Equipment industry was 26.75 times, with a valuation premium of 115.88% compared to the CSI 300 [67][68] Key Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a focus on investment opportunities in companies involved in urban renewal and humanoid robotics, emphasizing the importance of these sectors for future growth [70][71] - Specific companies recommended for investment include SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Hengli Hydraulic, and CRRC, all rated as "overweight" [2][71]

Macro and Strategy Research - The US Treasury market has a history of over 200 years, with significant events shaping its development, including the Civil War and the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system. The US bond market accounts for over 40% of the global market [2][3] - As of the end of 2024, the total US national debt is projected to reach $28.3 trillion, nearly doubling since 2017. The issuance of debt follows principles aimed at minimizing expected costs and providing predictable issuance guidance [2][3] - The trading of US Treasuries occurs mainly in Tokyo, London, and New York, with an average daily trading volume increasing by 1.8 times over the past decade. The investor structure is diverse, with overseas investors, the Federal Reserve, and money market funds accounting for about 60% of the market [3] - Long-term US Treasury yields are influenced by expected real rates, expected inflation, actual risk premiums, and inflation risk premiums. Recent data shows that the 10-year Treasury yield is slightly below last year's level, with a trend of first declining and then rising [3] Industry Research - The easing of US-China tariff issues is expected to support domestic exports, with a focus on companies with global layouts that will have competitive advantages [7][8] - H&M Group reported a 1% year-on-year increase in net sales for the first half of 2025, indicating resilience in the retail sector [7] - Xiaomi launched its first AI glasses, which are lighter and more suitable for Asian users compared to competitors. The Chinese smart glasses market is projected to reach 2.9 million units by 2025, with Xiaomi expected to capture 10% of the market share [8] - The light industry and textile sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.68 percentage points and 1.97 percentage points, respectively, during the week of June 23 to June 27 [7][8]

Macro and Strategy Research - The manufacturing PMI for June 2025 is reported at 49.7%, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing sentiment, driven by the continuous release of domestic demand policies [2][3] - The production index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 51.0%, while the new orders index rose by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2%, returning to the expansion zone [2][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 50.5%, with the construction sector showing a significant increase of 1.8 percentage points to 52.8% [3] - The comprehensive PMI output index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 50.7%, reflecting a synchronized recovery in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [3][4] Financial Engineering Research - The report explores the implementation of personal pension systems, including the introduction of index funds as investment options [5] - A total of 85 equity index funds have been included in the personal pension product catalog, with 66 being passive index funds [5] - The analysis of long-term investment in selected indices shows that longer investment periods yield more stable returns, with the dividend index outperforming other broad-based indices [6] Margin Financing and Securities Lending - As of June 25, 2025, the margin financing balance in the A-share market is reported at 18,236.47 billion yuan, a decrease of 370.86 billion yuan from the end of the previous year [8] - The report indicates a structural change in margin financing, with small-cap stocks seeing an increase in both financing and lending balances, while large-cap stocks experienced a decline [8][9] - The net buying amounts in the automotive, machinery, and pharmaceutical sectors were significant, while the non-bank financial and electronic sectors saw lower net buying [8][9] Public Fund Weekly Report - The report highlights a significant inflow of funds into the CSI A500 index, exceeding 70 billion yuan, while the CSI 300 index experienced substantial outflows [11][12] - The overall equity fund market saw a decrease in average positions, with a drop of 3.07 percentage points to 72.31% as of June 27, 2025 [12] - The ETF market experienced a net inflow of 13.94 billion yuan, with bond ETFs continuing to attract investments [12] Multi-Factor Stock Selection Model - The report introduces a multi-factor model using random forests to enhance stock selection, capturing non-linear relationships and complex interactions in data [14][16] - The model outperformed the CSI 500 index in terms of total returns and risk-adjusted metrics, demonstrating the practical value of machine learning in quantitative trading [17]

Group 1: Industrial Enterprises Profit Analysis - In the first five months of 2025, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with a significant drop of 9.1% in May [3][4] - The decline in profits is attributed to multiple factors including reduced working days, tariff adjustments causing delays in orders and production, and a decrease in both volume and price, leading to a 2.7% increase in operating income [4][5] - The profit margin for the first five months was 4.97%, down 4.2% year-on-year, indicating a worsening profitability situation for industrial enterprises [4][5] Group 2: Macroeconomic Outlook - The macroeconomic report indicates that the Chinese economy has maintained stable growth despite external pressures, with a GDP growth of 5.4% in Q1 2025, surpassing market expectations [8] - The report anticipates a gradual slowdown in economic growth in the latter half of 2025 due to declining export momentum and diminishing policy effects, with infrastructure investment being crucial for achieving annual GDP growth targets [8][9] - The fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, with potential measures including the issuance of government bonds to support economic growth [9] Group 3: Fixed Income Market Strategy - The fixed income market saw a significant increase in the issuance of government bonds in the first half of 2025, with net financing close to 3.4 trillion yuan, double that of the same period in 2024 [10][11] - The report suggests that the bond market will remain in a volatile state, with limited opportunities for significant trends, emphasizing the importance of tactical trading strategies [16] - The anticipated monetary policy adjustments, including potential rate cuts, are expected to influence the bond market dynamics positively [16] Group 4: Metal Industry Investment Strategy - The metal industry report highlights strong price trends for copper, aluminum, gold, cobalt, and rare earth elements, with gold expected to maintain upward momentum due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and anticipated interest rate cuts [23][25] - The report notes a recovery in rare earth export demand, driven by the growth in the new energy and robotics sectors, following recent adjustments in export controls [25][26] - Investment strategies recommend focusing on companies with strong resource bases and cost control capabilities in the gold and rare earth sectors [27] Group 5: Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Sector - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing positive momentum, with significant developments in high-end medical device innovation and new drug approvals [28][29] - The report indicates a rebound in the pharmaceutical market, driven by improved policies and a reduction in negative impacts from previous regulations [30] - Investment opportunities are suggested in sectors benefiting from policy optimization and improving performance metrics, particularly in the CXO and medical device segments [30]

固 定 收 益 研 究 固定收益半年报 大浪难寻，细浪掘金 ――利率债 2025 年下半年投资策略报告 分析师： 王哲语 SAC NO： S1150524070001 2025 年 6 月 27 日 2025 年上半年市场回顾 资金价格：2025 年上半年，资金面先紧后松。一季度资金面偏紧且波幅较 大，与央行稳汇率防空转、银行负债压力加剧及政府债供给规模较高有关。 二季度资金价格趋降趋稳，主要源于，在关税冲击下，央行积极维稳资金 面，叠加 5 月降准降息直接带动资金价格下移。 一级市场：2025 年上半年，利率债供给加量，发行规模和净融资规模均远高 于 2024 年同期，其中，国债净融资规模接近 3.4 万亿元，约为 2024 年同期 的 2 倍。节奏上，国债发行主要在二季度提速；地方债则在一季度发行放 量，与国债发行节奏形成错位；政金债发行节奏较为平滑。 二级市场：2025 年上半年，利率先上后下，曲线走平。一季度利率出现较为 明显的上行调整，主要源于"宽货币"向"稳货币"甚至"紧货币"转变， 资金利空逐渐由短端向长端传导，带动曲线呈现熊平特征。二季度"关税交 易"是主线，4 月利率受关税避险和宽松预期升温 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" for the next 12 months, indicating an expected increase in performance relative to the CSI 300 index [58][70]. Core Insights - The report highlights the approval of measures by the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) to support the innovation of high-end medical devices, which is expected to enhance the industry’s growth [16][17]. - The report notes that from January to May 2025, there were 167 million instances of employee medical insurance personal account mutual aid, amounting to 22.026 billion yuan [4][16]. - Dupilumab has received FDA approval for the treatment of bullous pemphigoid, marking a significant advancement in targeted therapies [18]. Industry News - The NMPA has approved measures to optimize the lifecycle regulation supporting high-end medical device innovation, which includes ten specific actions aimed at enhancing the development of innovative medical technologies [16][17]. - The report mentions the upcoming ADA conference, where numerous pharmaceutical companies will showcase their innovative drug research, suggesting potential investment opportunities in related sectors [8][57]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing optimization of centralized procurement policies, which is expected to mitigate negative impacts on the industry and improve performance in related sectors [8][57]. Market Performance - The report indicates that during the week of June 20-26, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.57%, while the pharmaceutical and biological sector increased by 1.34%, with all sub-sectors showing positive growth [6][47]. - As of June 26, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the pharmaceutical and biological industry was 27.45, with a valuation premium of 138% compared to the CSI 300 index [51][58]. Company Announcements - Kintor Pharmaceutical announced that the NMPA has accepted the new drug application for Shurike Aolun's injection for the treatment of advanced gastric/esophageal junction adenocarcinoma [27]. - HBM7020, developed by Hengrui Medicine, has entered a global strategic cooperation agreement with Otsuka Pharmaceutical for the treatment of autoimmune diseases [28][32]. - The report also highlights various collaborations and licensing agreements among companies, indicating a trend towards strategic partnerships in the industry [33][34][35].