Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to +10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [57]. Core Insights - In March 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 40,940 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, exceeding the consensus expectation of 4.36% [6][11]. - Urban market growth has surpassed rural market growth for the first time in nearly 20 months, with urban retail sales increasing by 6% year-on-year [13]. - Online consumption continues to show strong growth, with online retail sales of goods and services increasing by 7.9% and 5.7% year-on-year, respectively [15]. - The consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.5% [31]. - The unemployment rate in March 2025 was 5.2%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [44]. Summary by Sections Overall Retail Sales - The retail sales of consumer goods in March 2025 grew by 5.9% year-on-year, reaching 40,940 billion yuan, which is higher than the expected growth rate [11]. By Category - The share of goods retail has increased, with food and beverage categories showing stable growth. In March, the total retail sales of goods reached 36,705 billion yuan, also growing by 5.9% year-on-year [22][24]. - Essential goods showed robust growth, with food, beverages, and daily necessities increasing by 13.8%, 4.4%, and 8.8% year-on-year, respectively [29]. Price Performance - The CPI and PPI both decreased year-on-year, with the PPI declining by 2.5% due to weak upstream energy prices. The PPI-CPI gap widened to -2.4% [31][38]. Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate in March 2025 was 5.2%, which is consistent with the levels seen in 2019 and the previous year [44][47]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the high-end liquor and regional leading brands in the liquor sector, as the valuation is currently at a low point and policies are expected to boost demand [54]. - The cosmetics sector is also highlighted for stable growth, with domestic brands likely to increase their market share amid rising uncertainties in international relations [54].

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月18日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250418 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.贵州茅台（600519）：2024年圆满收官，2025年扎实前行—公司简评报告 ➢ 2.普门科技（688389）：试剂业务快速增长，业绩总体稳健——公司简评报告 ➢ 1.中国人民银行联合其他五部门印发《促进和规范金融业数据跨境流动合规指南》 ➢ 2.财政部联合商务部发布《关于开展2025年现代商贸流通体系试点城市申报工作的通知》 ➢ 3.国家统计局发布3月失业率 ➢ 4.欧洲央行如期下调三大政策利率25 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月17日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250417 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1."抢出口"带动生产，"以旧换新"支撑社零——国内观察：2025年3月经济数据 ➢ 2.普门科技（688389）：试剂业务快速增长，业绩总体稳健——公司简评报告 ➢ 3.邮储银行（601658）：负债优势凸显，财政部战投与邮政集团增持彰显信心——公司简 评报告 ➢ 4.开立医疗（300633）：环比显著改善，高端产品放量可期——公司简评报告 ➢ 5.2025Q1国内轮胎市场需求稳定，关注关税落地影响——轮 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月16日 公 司 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 风险提示：集采降价超预期风险；产品推广不及预期风险；市场竞争加剧风险等。 [盈利预测与估值简表 Table_profits] 伍可心 S0630522120001 wkx@longone.com.cn | [数据日期 Table_cominfo] | 2025/04/16 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 13.68 | | 总股本(万股) | 42,849 | | 流通A股/B股(万股) | 42,849/0 | | 资产负债率(%) | 29.20% | | 市净率(倍) | 2.86 | | 净资产收益率(加权) | 18.20 | | 12个月内最高/最低价 | 21.10/12.27 | [Table_QuotePic] -37% -27% -18% -8% 2% 11% 21% 31% 24-04 24-07 24-10 25-01 普门科技 沪深300 [相关研究 Table_Report] 《普门科技（688389）：盈 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月16日 公 司 简 评 增持（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 [邮储银行（ Table_NewTitle] 601658）：负债优势凸显，财 政部战投与邮政集团增持彰显信心 ——公司简评报告 [table_main] 投资要点 [Table_QuotePic] -17% -10% -3% 4% 11% 18% 25% 32% 24-04 24-07 24-10 25-01 邮储银行 沪深300 [相关研究 Table_Report] 《邮储银行（601658）：负债成本优 势保持，储蓄代理降费效果体现—— 公司简评报告》 2024.11.05 《邮储银行（601658）：储蓄代理刚 性缓解，存款降息对冲贷款端影响— —公司简评报告》 2024.10.18 《邮储银行（601658）：存款增长较 快，关注储蓄代理方案优化——公司 简评报告》 2024.09.11 银 行 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 公 司 研 究 [Table_invest] [数据日期 Table_cominfo] 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Postal Savings Bank of China (601658) [1] Core Views - The bank's liability advantages are highlighted, with strategic investments from the Ministry of Finance and increased holdings from the Postal Group demonstrating confidence in the bank's future [1][6] - The bank's 2024 annual report shows a slight increase in operating income and net profit, with total assets growing significantly year-on-year [1][6] - The bank's credit growth is slowing marginally, but it still outperforms the average growth of major state-owned banks [1][6] - The bank's deposit cost advantage remains, with a narrowing decline in net interest margin expected to continue [1][6] - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with manageable credit risks anticipated despite slight increases in non-performing loans [1][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the bank achieved operating income of CNY 348.77 billion (+1.83% YoY) and net profit of CNY 86.48 billion (+0.24% YoY) [1][6] - Total assets reached CNY 17.08 trillion (+8.64% YoY) with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.90% [1][6] Credit and Investment - Credit growth is marginally slowing, particularly in credit cards and small loans, but remains relatively strong compared to peers [1][6] - The bank increased its bond investments significantly in Q4, capitalizing on favorable market conditions [1][6] Deposit and Interest Margin - The bank's net interest margin for Q4 was measured at 1.81%, with a slight decline compared to previous quarters [1][6] - The cost of deposits is improving due to a favorable deposit structure, leading to a more pronounced decline in interest expenses compared to other state-owned banks [1][6] Asset Quality - The bank's asset quality is expected to remain stable, with manageable risks in personal loans and commercial sectors [1][6] - The non-performing loan coverage ratio stands at 286.15%, indicating a strong buffer against potential losses [1][6] Strategic Investments - The bank plans to raise CNY 130 billion through strategic investments to bolster its core capital, with significant participation from the Ministry of Finance [6] - The Postal Group's recent share purchase further reinforces confidence in the bank's stability and growth prospects [6] Profit Forecasts - The bank's revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards, reflecting improved expectations for investment income and cost management [6][34]

[证券分析师： Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250416 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月16日 [table_summary] ➢ 1.关注4月数据更重要——国内观察：2025年3月进出口数据 ➢ 2.制冷剂企业Q1业绩兑现，行业景气持续上行——氟化工行业月报 ➢ 3.内需改善预期提升，板块迎来配置良机——食品饮料行业周报（2025/4/7-2025/4/13） ➢ 1.国家税务总局发布第一季度增值税发票最新数据 ➢ 2.美国财长贝森特称，仍然希望与中国达成关税协议 ➢ 3.美国商务部启动对芯片与药品的进口调查 ➢ 4.《金融"五篇大文 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the refrigerant industry, indicating a high level of industry prosperity and suggesting that related companies are likely to see significant profit increases [6][73]. Core Insights - In March 2025, refrigerant prices continued to rise, with R32, R125, and R134a prices reaching 47,000 CNY/ton, 45,000 CNY/ton, and 46,500 CNY/ton respectively, marking increases of 5.62%, 2.27%, and 3.33% compared to the end of February [6][14]. - The production of household air conditioners is expected to maintain a year-on-year growth trend, with production volumes projected at 24 million units in April, 23.9 million in May, and 21.3 million in June, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9.10%, 13.00%, and 15.90% respectively [6][38]. - The long-term contract prices for refrigerants R32 and R410a have significantly increased, with R32 rising to 46,600 CNY/ton and R410a to 47,600 CNY/ton, both reflecting increases of 6,000 CNY/ton from the first quarter [6][68]. Summary by Sections Refrigerant Tracking - As of March 31, 2025, the prices of R32, R125, and R134a were reported at 47,000 CNY/ton, 45,000 CNY/ton, and 46,500 CNY/ton, respectively, with significant month-on-month increases [6][14]. - The production of R32, R134a, and R125 in March 2025 saw a month-on-month increase of 38.09%, 46.39%, and 33.88% respectively, while R134a experienced a year-on-year decline of 12.10% [6][15]. - The total inventory of R32, R134a, and R125 increased by 10.34%, 15.86%, and 12.34% respectively as of March 28, 2025 [6][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant industry, such as Juhua Co., Ltd. and Sanmei Co., Ltd., as well as companies with a complete industrial chain like Jinshi Resources [6][73].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the refrigerant industry, indicating a high level of industry prosperity and suggesting that related companies are likely to see significant profit increases [6][72]. Core Insights - In March 2025, refrigerant prices continued to rise, with R32, R125, and R134a prices reaching 47,000 CNY/ton, 45,000 CNY/ton, and 46,500 CNY/ton respectively, marking increases of 5.62%, 2.27%, and 3.33% compared to the end of February [6][14]. - The production of household air conditioners is expected to maintain a year-on-year growth trend, with production volumes projected at 24 million units in April, 23.9 million in May, and 21.3 million in June, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9.10%, 13.00%, and 15.90% respectively [6][38]. - The long-term contract prices for refrigerants R32 and R410a have significantly increased, with R32 rising to 46,600 CNY/ton and R410a to 47,600 CNY/ton, both reflecting increases of 6,000 CNY/ton from the first quarter [6][68]. Refrigerant Tracking - The production of R32, R134a, and R125 in March 2025 saw significant month-on-month increases, with R32 production up 38.09% and R134a up 46.39% [15]. - The total inventory of R32, R134a, and R125 has shown a month-on-month increase, indicating a recovery in supply levels [18]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant industry, such as Juhua Co. and Sanmei Co., which are expected to benefit from the ongoing high demand and rising prices [6][72].

[晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250415 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月15日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] [Table_Report] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： ➢ 1.积极政策与流动性需求促进信贷回暖，贷款定价基本稳定——银行业"量价质"跟踪（十 二） ➢ 2.中长期资金入市推动市场信心重拾，关注一季报业务增长带来的配置机遇——非银金融 行业周报（20250407-20250413） 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn ➢ 1.商务部等6部门启动"购在中国"系列活动 ➢ 2.多家银行下调存款利率 ➢ 3.金融监管局印发《关于促进金融资产管理公司高质量发展提升监管质效的指导意见》 ➢ 4.日本首相：日本不准备向美国做重大让步 ➢ 5.国家主席习近平对越南进行国事访问 [table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 H ...