[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月12日 重点推荐 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 王敏君 S0630522040002 wmj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250512 [table_summary] | 年 1.1. 关税豁免期内出口可能仍有韧性——国内观察：2025 4 月进出口数据... | 3 | | --- | --- | | 1.2. CPI 强于季节性，PPI 受关税影响拖累——国内观察：2025 年 4 月通胀数据 | | | | 4 | | 1.3. 原料去库存、出口韧性仍强，下游成本或将受益 ——资产配置周报 | | | （2025/05/05-2025/05/09） | 5 | | 1.4. 华厦眼科（301267）：业绩短期承压，消费眼科稳健增长——公司简评报告 | | | | 6 | | 1.5. 长安汽车（0 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights significant events impacting the company, including a notable decline in wholesale vehicle sales in April 2025, with a total of 190,700 units sold, representing a month-over-month decrease of 9.27% and a year-over-year decrease of 28.87% [6] - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming launch of new models, particularly the Avita series, which has shown strong sales growth, with a 122.62% increase in April sales compared to the previous month [6] - The report anticipates a robust growth trajectory for the company, projecting net profits of 8.448 billion, 10.922 billion, and 13.531 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.85, 1.10, and 1.36 yuan [6][7] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company reported a total wholesale vehicle sales of 895,800 units from January to April 2025, with a slight year-over-year decrease of 0.71% [6] - The company has established nine KD factories overseas, with a total capacity of 260,000 units, and plans to launch its first overseas electric vehicle base in Thailand in May 2025 [6] Financial Performance - The company’s main revenue for 2025 is projected to be 190.3 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth rate of 19% [7] - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 16% for the upcoming years [7] Future Outlook - The company aims to launch eight new models in the European market within three years, with over 80% of these being electric vehicles [6] - The report emphasizes the company's strategic partnerships with Huawei and CATL, which are expected to enhance its electric and intelligent transformation prospects [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, but the consumer ophthalmology sector shows steady growth [1][6] - The company is a large ophthalmology medical chain group integrating medical education and research, achieving stable growth through "internal growth + external mergers" [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 4,027 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.35%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 428.64 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.63% [6][7] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1,093 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.74% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29.34%, with a net profit of 150 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.00% [6][7] - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 was 44.19%, and for Q1 2025, it was 44.97%, showing a decline compared to the previous year [6][7] Business Segment Performance - The cataract project generated revenue of 873 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11.56%, while the refractive project achieved revenue of 1,296 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.44% [6][7] - The company expects improvements in the refractive surgery business's unit price and gross margin due to the promotion of new technologies [6] Employee Incentives - The company announced an employee stock ownership plan to motivate core personnel, with a total of 752.78 million shares available for purchase at a price of 9.26 yuan per share [6] Profit Forecasts - The revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are net profits of 5.15 billion yuan, 6.05 billion yuan, and 6.97 billion yuan, respectively [6][7]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月09日 [诺泰生物（ Table_NewTitle] 688076）：业绩保持高增长， 多肽领先地位持续巩固 ——公司简评报告 [table_main] 投资要点 22% [Table_QuotePic] -30% -20% -9% 1% 12% 33% 43% 24-05 24-08 24-11 25-02 诺泰生物 沪深300 [相关研究 Table_Report] 《诺泰生物（688076）：多肽优势持 续扩大，业绩显著超预期——公司简 评报告》 2024.08.27 《诺泰生物（688076）：业绩强劲增 长，产销研齐头并进——公司简评报 告》 2024.04.02 《诺泰生物（688076）：业绩超预期， 自主产品为主要增长引擎——公司 简评报告》 2023.10.23 公 司 简 评 医 药 生 物 [Table_invest] 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 公 司 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 杜永宏 S06305 ...

行 业 研 究 688 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月09日 标配 业 月 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人 董经纬 1. 海外云厂商Q1云业务表现亮眼， 资本开支维持高位——电子行业周 报（2025/4/28-2025/5/4） 2. AI芯片厂商业绩表现亮眼，谷歌 Q1资本开支持续高增——电子行业 周报（2025/4/21-2025/4/27） 3. 2025Q1国内智能手机出货量增速 超越全球市场，AI需求拉动台积电 Q1 业绩增长 — — 电 子 行 业 周 报 （2025/4/14-2025/4/20） [Table_NewTitle] AI芯片厂商业绩增长显著，关税摩擦加 速半导体国产化进程 ——半导体行业4月份月报 [table_main] 投资要点： 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 电 子 [table_invest] djwei@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月09日 超配 行 业 深 度 非 银 金 融 tsy@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] 20% 37% 54% 70% -30% -13% 4% 24-05 24-08 24-11 25-02 申万行业指数:非银金融(0749) [相关研究 table_product] 1.券商一季报业绩大幅增长，保险 NBV延续高增势头——非银金融行 业周报（20250428-20250504） 2.从蚂蚁要约收购耀才证券，看金融 科技并购券商的国际化布局——资 本市场聚焦（一） 3.万能险最低保证利率可调整，特别 储备与平滑机制保障稳健运行—— 保险业态观察（三） [Table_NewTitle 引长钱、促长投、兴科技，一揽子金融 ] 政策提振市场预期 [table_main] 投资要点： 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 研 究 [table_invest] ——资本市场聚焦（二） [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月09日 [相关研究 table_product] 1.券商一季报业绩大幅增长，保险 NBV延续高增势头——非银金融行 业周报（20250428-20250504） 2.从蚂蚁要约收购耀才证券，看金融 科技并购券商的国际化布局——资 本市场聚焦（一） 3.万能险最低保证利率可调整，特别 储备与平滑机制保障稳健运行—— 保险业态观察（三） 超配 行 业 深 度 非 银 金 融 tsy@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] 20% 37% 54% 70% -30% -13% 4% 24-05 24-08 24-11 25-02 申万行业指数:非银金融(0749) [Table_NewTitle 引长钱、促长投、兴科技，一揽子金融 ] 政策提振市场预期 [table_main] 投资要点： 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 研 究 [table_invest] ——资本市场聚焦（二） [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100 ...

Investment Rating - The semiconductor industry is rated as "Standard Configuration" for investment [1]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry showed signs of recovery in April 2025, with a continued upward trend in prices despite high inventory levels. Key areas of focus include AI computing power, AIOT, semiconductor equipment, and critical components [6][7]. - The demand for semiconductors is expected to continue improving, driven by growth in smartphones, tablets, wearables, AI servers, and new energy vehicles [6][7]. - The report highlights significant performance growth in domestic AI chip companies and sustained high capital expenditure from leading overseas cloud providers [6][7]. Monthly Market Review - The semiconductor sector experienced a price increase of 0.75% in April 2025, while the overall electronic sector declined by 5.07% [13][15]. - The semiconductor industry's valuation metrics indicate a PE ratio of 70.69% and a PB ratio of 46.74%, reflecting a high valuation compared to historical averages [21][24]. Supply and Demand Data - Global semiconductor sales in March 2025 increased by 18.84% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in demand [6]. - The report notes that while supply remains relatively abundant, prices are showing signs of an upward trend, with expectations for further demand recovery in May [6][7]. Downstream Demand Tracking - The report tracks significant growth in the demand for TWS headphones and AI servers, with global smartphone shipments increasing by 1.53% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [6][7]. - New energy vehicle sales in China saw a year-on-year increase of 40.09% in March 2025, contributing to semiconductor demand [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from strong domestic and international demand in the AIOT sector, such as Lexin Technology and Hengxuan Technology [7]. - It also recommends monitoring AI-driven innovation sectors, including computing chips and optical devices, as well as upstream supply chain companies involved in domestic substitution [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The company has experienced significant performance improvement due to the rising demand for refrigerants, with a reported revenue of 24.462 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 18.43% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 1.960 billion yuan, up 107.69% year-on-year [4][5] - The implementation of the third-generation refrigerant quotas has optimized the supply-demand and competitive landscape, leading to a recovery in refrigerant prices, which is expected to further enhance the company's revenue and net profit margins [4][5] - The company is positioned as a global leader in refrigerants, benefiting from a significant price increase in refrigerants, with R22, R32, R134a, and R125 prices rising by 84.62%, 172.46%, 66.07%, and 62.16% respectively as of March 31, 2025 [4][5] - The demand for refrigerants is supported by a year-on-year increase in air conditioning production, with a reported production of 23.3 million units in May, up 9.9% from the previous year [4] - The company has made substantial investments in fixed assets totaling 2.467 billion yuan in 2024, with ongoing projects aimed at enhancing its industrial chain advantages [4][5] - The company is expected to maintain a strong performance outlook, with revised profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 net profits projected at 4.236 billion yuan and 5.571 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 24.462 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.43%, and a net profit of 1.960 billion yuan, up 107.69% [4][5] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.800 billion yuan, a 6.05% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.809 billion yuan, up 160.64% [4] Market Position - The company is a leader in the refrigerant market, benefiting from favorable pricing trends and regulatory support through the implementation of third-generation refrigerant quotas [4][5] - The average price changes for various products include a 32.69% increase in refrigerants and a 23.19% increase in fluorochemical raw materials [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see continued growth in net profits, with projections for 2025 and 2026 at 4.236 billion yuan and 5.571 billion yuan respectively, and an additional forecast for 2027 at 6.466 billion yuan [4][5] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.57 yuan, 2.06 yuan, and 2.40 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (PE) of 17.20X, 13.07X, and 11.26X [4][5]

Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown signs of recovery from the negative impact of the "tariff war," with significant technical conditions being repaired during recent fluctuations [1][2] - Currently, the index is still within a wedge pattern, indicating a larger potential for upward movement and limited space for decline [3] Technical Analysis Summary - The index experienced a significant drop of 7.34% on April 7, 2025, due to the "tariff war," breaking through multiple long-term support levels, including the 60-day, half-year, and yearly moving averages [2][5] - Following the drop, the index began a gradual recovery, filling a significant gap of over 100 points, with a net inflow of large funds exceeding 27.6 billion yuan over 20 trading days [2][5] - As of May 7, 2025, the index has surpassed the 60-day and half-year moving averages, indicating a bullish trend in the short-term moving averages [2][5] - The index is approaching the upper resistance of the wedge pattern, with the need for strong volume and fund flow to break through this level [2][5] - Despite being near the upper resistance, there are multiple support levels below, suggesting limited downside potential [2][5] Market Conditions - The index is currently positioned near the upper resistance of the wedge pattern, but if it fails to break through, it may consolidate and gather strength [2][5] - The index's distance from the closing price on the day of the significant drop (approximately 250 points) indicates that, barring further negative impacts, the short-term decline potential is limited [2][5] - If the index successfully breaks through the wedge pattern, it could theoretically rise by the height of the wedge, similar to the previous rapid increase observed [2][5]