Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the global distribution of non-ferrous resources is uneven, and strategic metals are becoming a focal point for countries, leading to a revaluation of their worth, with supply being the core theme [2][5][14] - Unlike previous trends driven by macro demand recovery, strategic metals have shown stronger excess returns compared to non-ferrous indices and base metals this year, with supply acting as the main catalyst [2][5][14] Rare Earth Magnets - Rare earths are highlighted as a core strategic metal, with potential price increases due to tightening domestic controls and possible disruptions in overseas supply [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's proactive supply reduction in response to weak prices is expected to weaken the price suppression effect [5] - New regulations on rare earth management are set to enhance industry concentration and control [5] Tungsten - The report forecasts a continued rigid supply for tungsten, supporting an upward price trend due to limited new mining projects and declining output from existing mines [5] - The anticipated decline in domestic mining quotas for 2025 is expected to further bolster bullish sentiment regarding tungsten prices [5] Cobalt - Cobalt's supply is highly concentrated, with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) accounting for 75% of global production, and the DRC's export ban reflects a strong price support intention [5] - The report predicts a significant reduction in DRC's external inventory by 2025, leading to potential price increases [5] Nickel - Indonesia's government policies are expected to support nickel prices, but upward price elasticity will depend on macroeconomic recovery [5] - The report notes that the current tightness in nickel supply is expected to maintain price stability [5] Lithium - Despite current supply pressures and declining prices, the report suggests that a significant resource clearing will take time, with oversupply continuing to suppress prices [5] - However, the report indicates that lithium prices have stabilized at around 70,000 yuan/ton, providing a safety margin for investments [5]

Core Insights - The home appliance sector, including major segments like white goods and black goods, is currently valued at relatively low levels, while the holding levels are at historical highs, with performance being the key driver for excess returns in the sector [3][20][32] - Domestic sales are expected to maintain high resilience due to national subsidies, while external sales will show high elasticity driven by increasing demand penetration in emerging markets and the rising market share of Chinese brands [3][7][8] Review: Performance-Driven Sector Achieving Excess Returns - As of June 20, 2025, the home appliance index has declined by 1.2%, ranking eighteenth among all major industries, with all segments except black goods achieving positive relative returns [20][21] - The home appliance sector's valuation is currently at a relative low, influenced by ongoing tariff fluctuations, with the kitchen appliance sector above the median [6][28][32] - The public fund holding ratio for the home appliance industry in Q1 2025 was 6.28%, with a slight increase of 0.14 percentage points, indicating a high allocation level historically [6][35][40] Resilience: National Subsidies Driving Domestic Demand - The continuation and expansion of national subsidies for home appliances have shown significant results, with retail sales of home appliances experiencing double-digit growth for eight consecutive months from September 2024 to April 2025 [7][44] - The average selling price of air conditioners has seen a controlled decline, with leading brands maintaining a positive price premium over the industry average [7][46] - Categories with low penetration, such as coffee machines and cleaning appliances, have shown strong growth, indicating a favorable competitive environment for profitability improvement [7][46] Elasticity: Limited Tariff Disturbances and Emerging Market Contributions - Despite high tariffs on Chinese home appliance products in the U.S., the impact on most listed companies is limited due to their low exposure to the U.S. market [8][30] - Emerging markets are expected to become significant sources of incremental exports for Chinese home appliances, with rapid penetration rates in regions like Latin America and the Middle East [8][30] Investment Recommendations: Focus on Quality Leaders with Growth Certainty - For the second half of 2025, it is recommended to focus on high-certainty growth leaders with low exposure to the U.S. market, such as Gree Electric, Midea Group, and Hisense Home Appliances [9][12] - Companies benefiting from domestic sales and the old-for-new replacement policy, like Aima Technology and Yadea Holdings, are also highlighted for their strong growth certainty [9][12] - Emerging leaders with U.S. exposure and strong brand power, such as Anker Innovations and Roborock, are recommended for their potential recovery [9][12]

Core Insights - The computer industry is currently facing a core contradiction of insufficient effective demand, which is a characteristic of post-cycle products. The overall revenue of the computer industry has seen slight growth since 2020, but profits have declined due to expenses growing faster than revenue. In Q1 2025, the total revenue reached 139.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -470 million yuan, showing an improvement of 80.8% year-on-year [6][25][30]. Group 1: Demand and Market Dynamics - Effective demand is the core contradiction in the current computer sector, with the industry being post-cycle and reliant on capital expenditure following improvements in corporate profitability. The IT budget for Chinese enterprises is expected to decrease by 0.8% in 2025, marking the first decline since 2014 [23][25]. - The computer sector has experienced three phases this year: "DS/Main Line—Tariff Disputes—Theme Rotation." The release of DeepSeek-R1 and the rapid advancement of domestic large models have driven market enthusiasm, leading to significant excess returns in the sector [7][51]. Group 2: AI and Domesticization Opportunities - AI and domesticization are expected to be key points for breaking through demand constraints. The AI sector is transitioning from a focus on model iteration to application integration, with significant opportunities in cloud computing and AI agent applications [3][8]. - The intensifying US-China technology rivalry has highlighted the importance of self-sufficiency, leading to increased penetration rates of domestic products. Focus areas include databases, large PLCs, and industrial software, where domesticization rates remain low [9][23]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Projections - The computer industry's profitability is under pressure, with a projected gross margin of 32.3% in 2024, down 1.13 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be -140 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a decline of 101% [30][31]. - In Q1 2025, the industry reported a net profit of -470 million yuan, a significant improvement from -2.45 billion yuan in Q1 2024. The operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 37.21 billion yuan, but this was a 19.4% year-on-year improvement [37][40]. Group 4: Sectoral Performance and Trends - The performance of various segments within the computer industry has been mixed, with AI and IT infrastructure showing growth while government IT and industrial software face challenges. The government sector is beginning to show signs of recovery in Q1 2025 [45][49]. - The overall market sentiment has improved since mid-April 2025, with the Longjiang Computer Index rising by 5.61% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which fell by 1.1% [51][56].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growing interest of investors in Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the context of the AH premium and the sources of excess returns in the Hong Kong market [2][5][15] - It identifies that the investor structure and trading system of Hong Kong stocks are more aligned with overseas capital markets, which influences the selection of stocks based on foreign investor preferences [2][5] - The report highlights that both the US and Japanese markets, despite differing economic structures, share common characteristics in their long-term advantageous combinations, particularly strong shareholder return capabilities [2][5][6] Group 1: AH Premium Analysis - The AH premium is derived from five dimensions: fundamentals, industry structure, liquidity, investor structure, and trading systems [5][18] - The initiation and conclusion of excess returns in Hong Kong stocks are primarily influenced by changes in liquidity, as seen in the 2015 market dynamics [5][36] - The report notes that the performance of Hong Kong stocks has improved significantly since November 2024, with a notable increase in IPO activity and a trend of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong [15][36] Group 2: Long-term Investment Paradigms - The report discusses the importance of shareholder returns in long-term investment strategies, drawing parallels between the US and Japanese markets [6][52] - It highlights that high dividend strategies in Japan have historically outperformed the Nikkei 225 index, particularly during periods of low growth and low interest rates [6][53][56] - In the US, the report notes that share buybacks have become a dominant strategy, contributing to significant outperformance of the S&P 500 buyback index over growth and benchmark indices [62][64] Group 3: High Dividend Opportunities - The report identifies that Hong Kong stocks benefit from a stable demand for high dividends, primarily driven by institutional investors such as insurance and social security funds [7][18] - It emphasizes that the dividend yield, payout ratio, and dividend growth of Hong Kong stocks are competitive on a global scale, particularly within the Hong Kong Stock Connect framework [7][18] - The report suggests that high dividend stocks in Hong Kong are positioned well for steady appreciation in a low interest rate environment [7][18] Group 4: Cash Flow and Growth Opportunities - The report indicates that capturing high-quality growth opportunities in Hong Kong stocks is often dependent on understanding industry trends and timely exits during market bubbles [6][30] - It suggests that companies entering a sustained profitability phase, recognized by international investors, represent the best stage for achieving long-term returns [6][30] - The report proposes constructing a portfolio based on cash flow quality and share buyback events to enhance investment returns in Hong Kong stocks [6][30]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - In June 2025, the company achieved a total sales volume of 111,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.9% and a month-on-month increase of 8.3%. Among these, export sales accounted for 40,000 vehicles, making up 36.2% of total sales, while new energy vehicle sales reached 36,000 units, with a share of 37.3% in new energy passenger vehicles [2][9]. - The company is accelerating its global expansion and is committed to transitioning to new energy, with a continuous new vehicle cycle expected to drive improvements in sales and performance. Long-term, the company's four major expansion strategies are expected to open up long-term growth potential in sales, while the shift towards intelligence is set to enhance profitability across the entire industry chain [2][9]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In June 2025, the company sold 110,690 vehicles, with domestic sales of 71,000 units (up 17.8% year-on-year) and new energy sales of 36,000 units (up 39.4% year-on-year). Cumulatively, from January to June 2025, total sales reached 570,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [9]. - By brand, Haval sold 62,396 units (up 30.7% year-on-year), Tank sold 21,571 units (down 17.2% year-on-year), WEY sold 10,197 units (up 247.0% year-on-year), Ora sold 3,283 units (down 45.5% year-on-year), and Great Wall Pickup sold 13,213 units (down 13.4% year-on-year) [9]. Global Expansion - The company has implemented the "ONE GWM" strategy to accelerate its overseas expansion, covering over 170 countries and regions with more than 1,400 overseas sales channels. It has established three complete vehicle production bases in Thailand and Brazil, and several KD factories in Ecuador and Pakistan, which are expected to drive future sales growth [9]. Technological Advancements - In the context of the intelligent era, the company is actively promoting the development of intelligent sales and models, strengthening its technological advantages in areas such as algorithms, data, and computing power. This is expected to enhance its capabilities in intelligence continuously [9]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 141.6 billion, 172.7 billion, and 213.9 billion respectively, with corresponding A-share PE ratios of 13.0X, 10.6X, and 8.6X [9].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the domestic retail growth remains stable, supported by favorable policies such as tariff reductions and demand stimulation, with expectations of entering a destocking cycle in Q2-Q3 2025 [3][9] - The textile and apparel industry is expected to transition from a destocking to a stocking cycle, typically lasting 1-3 years, with the current accumulation phase lasting over a year [9][10] - The report highlights that premium manufacturing companies may find low-level investment opportunities, while long-term industry optimization will benefit leading companies [3][11] Group 2 - The report notes that the retail environment for brands is under pressure, with income declining and negative operating leverage affecting performance [28][30] - The manufacturing sector is currently facing challenges, with weak demand and inventory pressures leading to a passive accumulation phase [11][28] - Long-term, the report anticipates a restructuring of the industry, with quality manufacturers expected to gain market share due to competitive advantages [11][12] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of quality-price ratio and health trends in consumer preferences, with domestic brands leveraging online platforms for targeted consumer education and product upgrades [10][12] - The report identifies key investment opportunities in brands that align with new consumption trends, such as Hai Lan Home and Semir Fashion, as well as undervalued stocks in the Hong Kong market [12][12] - The textile manufacturing sector is projected to face short-term challenges but is expected to see a turning point in the second half of the year, with a focus on quality leading companies [12][12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Changhong Meiling [10][12]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from structural opportunities in the industry, including cautious domestic consumption, the rise of e-commerce, and the upgrade of refrigerator structures, as well as low penetration rates in emerging markets for white goods [3][10]. - The air conditioning business is rapidly increasing market share through e-commerce and competitive pricing, while the refrigerator segment is anticipated to see growth through structural upgrades and improved price-performance ratios [3][10]. - The company is focusing on operational efficiency improvements through management reforms and operational optimizations, which are expected to enhance profitability [9][10]. Company Overview - Changhong Meiling is one of the earliest brands in China's home appliance industry, starting refrigerator development in 1983. After restructuring with Changhong in 2004, the company has expanded into air conditioning and has established a diversified business model [6][22]. Domestic Sales - In the air conditioning sector, Changhong Meiling has achieved significant market share growth through deep cooperation with JD.com and a strong price-performance ratio, particularly in lower-tier markets [7][49]. - The refrigerator segment has seen an increase in average prices due to high-end product upgrades and technological innovations, meeting consumer demands for health and personalization [7][67]. International Sales - The company has actively established a presence in emerging markets since the last century, with significant growth potential due to low penetration rates for white goods in these regions [8][10]. - Changhong Meiling's early market entry and steady share growth in emerging markets position it well to capitalize on the industry's export trends [8][10]. Efficiency Improvements - The company has made notable progress in efficiency improvements through group reform measures, including market-oriented executive hiring and strict performance evaluations [9][10]. - Operationally, the establishment of an intelligent trading platform has led to reduced sales costs and improved overall operational efficiency [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 806 million, 918 million, and 1.053 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 9.21, 8.09, and 7.05 times [10].

Market Performance - The northbound heavy positions outperformed the fund heavy positions, with a weekly return of 1.73% compared to 1.60% for the fund heavy index[10] - The overall market showed a slight acceleration in industry and style rotation[4] Sector Highlights - The healthcare sector led with a weekly increase of 3.63%, outperforming the overall A-share market by 2.42%[19] - The financial sector also performed well, with a weekly gain of 1.99%, exceeding the A-share benchmark by 0.77%[19] Investment Style - Low valuation stocks showed the highest gains, with the low valuation index rising by 3.23%[23] - Large-cap and low-volatility stocks dominated the performance, indicating a preference for stability in the current market environment[21] Thematic Trends - The Low Carbon Leaders 30 index was the top performer among themes, with a weekly increase of over 3%[25] - The carbon neutrality series also showed positive returns, with the Longjiang Carbon Neutral Index rising by 2.16%[25]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a barbell strategy focusing on dividends and micro-cap stocks, which is expected to continue outperforming in a macro environment characterized by low interest rates and ample liquidity. The long-term strategic allocation center for dividends and micro-cap stocks is around 70:30, effectively reducing drawdowns and enhancing returns [2][6][49]. - In the first half of 2025, the report identifies strong trend sectors that have not yet overheated, suggesting attention towards city commercial banks in the dividend sector, retail pharmacy and chemical pharmaceuticals in the healthcare sector, and other agricultural processing, express delivery, and specialized retail markets in the consumer sector [7][54]. Group 2 - The report notes that the broad market indices, such as the CSI 300 and CSI 500, have been in a prolonged sideways movement with low volatility, while thematic rotations have accelerated. Key themes include AI technology breakthroughs, gold price fluctuations due to tariff disturbances, and the performance of new consumption leaders driven by globalization [4][20]. - The report highlights that active equity funds have outperformed passive index funds, with active equity funds yielding approximately 5.5% compared to 2.6% for passive index funds as of June 18, 2025. The report also notes significant inflows into money market funds and mixed bond funds, reflecting a shift towards lower-risk investments in a declining interest rate environment [5][24][29].

Group 1 - The core logic of the bond market in 2025 shifts from "asset scarcity" to "liability scarcity," enhancing marginal pricing power in trading [2][6][7] - The overall economic recovery in the first half of 2025 supports the bond market, with key indicators performing better than expected, leading to a bottom constraint on bond prices [5][16][26] - The bond market experienced four phases in the first half of 2025: "fluctuation-bear-bull-fluctuation," influenced by monetary policy and tariff disturbances [5][26][39] Group 2 - The credit bond market continued to show positive net financing trends, with infrastructure bonds experiencing a decline in net financing while industrial bonds maintained rapid growth [6][39] - The yield on credit bonds initially rose and then fell, with overall credit spreads narrowing, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6][39][41] - The "liability scarcity" scenario has led to new behaviors among institutions, with traditional allocation channels facing instability due to declining premium growth and valuation adjustments [6][7][39] Group 3 - The second half of 2025 is expected to present opportunities for long positions in interest rate bonds, particularly around the 10-year government bond yield of 1.65% and the 30-year yield above 1.85% [2][8] - The report suggests that July will be a window for credit bond positioning, focusing on interest income and spread compression opportunities [8][39] - The overall outlook for the bond market in the second half of 2025 remains cautious, with expectations of stable growth policies and limited significant adjustments in the bond market [7][8][39]