证 券 研 究 报 告 Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) FY2025Q2 业绩点评及业绩说明会纪要 四大终端市场均实现双位数同比增长，业绩超指引 上限 ❖ 事项： 2025 年 5 月 23 日 Analog Devices, Inc.发布 2025 财年第二财季报告，并召开 业绩说明会。Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI)财务季度 FY2025Q2 截至 2025 年 5 月 3 日。 ❖ 评论： 1. 业绩总览：FY25Q2 实现营收 26.40 亿美元（YoY+22.28%，QoQ+8.95%）， 高于指引上限，公司四大业务部门均同比实现双位数增长。FY25Q2 调整后毛 利率为 69.4%（YoY+2.7pct，QoQ+1.5pct），调整后 EPS1.85 美元（YoY+32.14%， QoQ+13.50%），高于指引区间上限。 2. 关税带来的影响：FY25Q2 各终端市场与地区订单显著加速，在手订单回 升，但部分增长源于客户因美国关税提前采购，因此预计 FY25Q3 汽车业务收 入将有所下滑。除汽车板块外，其他业务板块没有看到关税造成的提前采购 （FY25Q ...

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 【金工周报】（20250519-20250523） 短中期择时信号偏中性，后市或偏向大盘 ❖ 本周回顾 本周市场普遍下跌，上证指数单周下跌 0.57%，创业板指单周下跌 0.88%。 A 股模型： 短期：成交量模型中性。低波动率模型中性。特征龙虎榜机构模型中性。特征 成交量模型看空。智能沪深 300 模型看多，智能中证 500 模型看空。 中期：涨跌停模型中性。月历效应模型中性。 长期：长期动量模型所有宽基指数中性。 综合：A 股综合兵器 V3 模型看空。A 股综合国证 2000 模型看空。 港股模型： 中期：成交额倒波幅模型看多。 本周行业指数涨少跌多，涨幅前五的行业为：综合、医药、汽车、有色金属、 家电，跌幅前五的行业为：综合金融、计算机、电子、机械、通信。从资金流 向角度来说，除家电外所有行业主力资金净流出，其中计算机、机械、电子、 基础化工、汽车主力资金净流出居前。 本周股票型基金总仓位为 90.83%，相较于上周减少了 76 个 bps，混合型基金 总仓位 73.66%，相较于上周增加了 120 个 bps。 本周汽车与计算机获得最大机构加仓，电子与电力设备及新能源 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Bilibili (BILI), expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [16]. Core Insights - Bilibili's Q1 2025 financial results showed revenue of 7 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 24%, aligning with Bloomberg consensus expectations. The gross profit reached 2.54 billion yuan, up 58% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 36.3%, also meeting expectations. The company achieved a NON-GAAP net profit of 362 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses, exceeding consensus forecasts [1]. - Cost-saving measures contributed to the profit exceeding expectations, with R&D expenses at 840 million yuan, 7% lower than anticipated, and sales expenses at 1.17 billion yuan, 3% below expectations. Overall, total expenses were 4% lower than projected [1]. - The report highlights the upcoming performance of the "Three Kingdoms" anniversary season as a key focus area [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Bilibili are adjusted to 29.9 billion yuan for 2025, 32.4 billion yuan for 2026, and 34.6 billion yuan for 2027, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 12%, 8%, and 7% respectively [7]. - The forecast for NON-GAAP net profit is updated to 2.01 billion yuan for 2025, 3.6 billion yuan for 2026, and 4.99 billion yuan for 2027, with significant year-over-year growth rates of 147.8%, 247.1%, and 62.3% respectively [7]. - The target price for Bilibili is set at $21.20, based on a 20x PE ratio for the 2026 NON-GAAP net profit, discounted back to 2025 [7]. Business Segments Performance - Mobile gaming revenue for Q1 2025 was 1.73 billion yuan, a 76% year-over-year increase, driven primarily by the core SLG product "Three Kingdoms: Strategy of the World" [7]. - Advertising revenue reached 2 billion yuan, a 20% year-over-year increase, supported by stable user growth, with DAU at 107 million, MAU at 368 million, and an average user engagement time of 108 minutes [7]. - Value-added services generated 2.8 billion yuan in revenue, an 11% year-over-year increase, driven by live streaming and other services [7].

- The short-term A-share models include the volume model (neutral), low volatility model (neutral), characteristic institutional model (neutral), characteristic volume model (bearish), intelligent CSI 300 model (bullish), and intelligent CSI 500 model (bearish) [1][10][68] - The mid-term A-share models include the limit-up and limit-down model (neutral) and the calendar effect model (neutral) [11][69] - The long-term A-share model is the long-term momentum model, which is neutral for all broad-based indices [12][70] - The comprehensive A-share models include the A-share comprehensive weapon V3 model (bearish) and the A-share comprehensive Guozheng 2000 model (bearish) [13][71] - The mid-term Hong Kong stock model is the turnover amplitude model, which is bullish [14][72] - The backtesting results for the models are as follows: - Volume model: neutral [1][10][68] - Low volatility model: neutral [1][10][68] - Characteristic institutional model: neutral [1][10][68] - Characteristic volume model: bearish [1][10][68] - Intelligent CSI 300 model: bullish [1][10][68] - Intelligent CSI 500 model: bearish [1][10][68] - Limit-up and limit-down model: neutral [11][69] - Calendar effect model: neutral [11][69] - Long-term momentum model: neutral [12][70] - A-share comprehensive weapon V3 model: bearish [13][71] - A-share comprehensive Guozheng 2000 model: bearish [13][71] - Turnover amplitude model: bullish [14][72]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [17]. Core Insights - The report highlights the introduction of the "National Network Identity Authentication Public Service Management Measures," which will take effect on July 15, 2025. This regulation emphasizes the importance of the identity authentication industry and presents opportunities within the supply chain [2][7]. - The management measures consist of 16 articles that clarify the concepts of national network identity authentication services, application scenarios, and the responsibilities of platforms regarding data security and personal information protection [7]. - The report encourages voluntary use of network identity certificates and numbers, ensuring user rights while promoting their application across various sectors [7]. - Privacy data protection is a key focus, with specific measures outlined for data management, storage, and incident response [7]. - A national network identity authentication app has been launched, allowing users to apply for digital identity credentials through secure methods [7]. - Investment suggestions include focusing on companies within the network identity authentication supply chain, such as Shengbang Security, New大陆, and Sanwei Xinan [7]. Industry Data - The computer industry comprises 336 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 41,548.90 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 35,628.74 billion [4]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 12 months is 30.2%, while the relative performance is 23.6% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [16]. Core Insights - The company experienced short-term pressure on performance, with Q4 2024 revenue at 138 million yuan, down 19.8% year-over-year and 2.0% quarter-over-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -44 million yuan, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was -46 million yuan. For Q1 2025, revenue was 102 million yuan, down 25.6% year-over-year and 25.8% quarter-over-quarter, with a net profit of 2 million yuan [1]. - The overall revenue for 2024 is projected at 550 million yuan, a decrease of 19% year-over-year, with a net profit of 30.58 million yuan and a net profit after deducting non-recurring items of 5.3 million yuan [1]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A: Revenue of 550 million yuan, net profit of 31 million yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 1,025 million yuan, net profit of 311 million yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 1,278 million yuan, net profit of 401 million yuan - 2027E: Revenue of 1,433 million yuan, net profit of 454 million yuan - **Growth Rates**: - Revenue growth rates are projected at -18.7% for 2024, 86.1% for 2025, 24.8% for 2026, and 12.1% for 2027 [3]. - Net profit growth rates are projected at -46.2% for 2024, 918.6% for 2025, 28.7% for 2026, and 13.3% for 2027 [3]. Business Segmentation - The company's PC game segment generated 370 million yuan in revenue for 2024, down 15.9% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 83.26%. The mobile game segment generated 160 million yuan, down 20.69% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 45.89% [7]. - Core products are performing steadily, with the flagship product "Dream Three Kingdoms 2" operating for over 10 years and having over 100 million registered users. The company is also launching new games like "Spiral Warrior" and "Jianghu Like Dream" in 2024 [7]. Future Outlook - The company has a rich pipeline of upcoming products, with a focus on the open-world game "Xiu Xian Era," which is expected to bring significant revenue and profit elasticity. The game will be published by Tencent and is set to be showcased at the 2025 Tencent Game Conference [7]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are optimistic, with expected revenues of 1.03 billion yuan in 2025, 1.28 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.43 billion yuan in 2027, alongside substantial growth in net profits [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Bilibili (BILI), expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [16]. Core Insights - Bilibili's Q1 2025 financial results showed revenue of 7 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 24%, aligning with Bloomberg consensus expectations. The gross profit reached 2.54 billion yuan, up 58% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 36.3%, also meeting expectations. The company achieved a non-GAAP net profit of 362 million yuan, marking a return to profitability and exceeding consensus forecasts [1]. - Cost-saving measures contributed to the better-than-expected profit, with R&D expenses at 840 million yuan, 7% lower than expected, and sales expenses at 1.17 billion yuan, 3% below expectations. Overall, total expenses were 4% lower than anticipated [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Bilibili are adjusted to 29.9 billion yuan for 2025, 32.4 billion yuan for 2026, and 34.6 billion yuan for 2027, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 12%, 8%, and 7% respectively [7]. - The forecast for non-GAAP net profit is updated to 2.01 billion yuan for 2025, 3.6 billion yuan for 2026, and 4.99 billion yuan for 2027, with significant year-over-year growth rates of 147.8%, 247.1%, and 62.3% respectively [7]. Business Segment Performance - Mobile gaming revenue for Q1 2025 was 1.73 billion yuan, a 76% year-over-year increase, driven primarily by the core SLG product "Three Kingdoms: Strategy of the World" [7]. - Advertising revenue reached 2 billion yuan, a 20% year-over-year increase, supported by stable user growth, with daily active users (DAU) reaching 107 million, a 4% year-over-year increase [7]. - Value-added services generated 2.8 billion yuan in revenue, an 11% year-over-year increase, driven by live streaming and other services [7]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price for Bilibili is set at $21.20, based on a 20x PE ratio for the 2026 non-GAAP net profit, discounted back to 2025 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [6][16]. Core Insights - The company's short-term performance is under pressure, with a focus on the upcoming launch of new games such as "Xiu Xian Shi Dai" [1][7]. - The company reported a revenue of 138 million yuan in Q4 2024, a year-over-year decline of 19.8%, and a revenue of 102 million yuan in Q1 2025, down 25.6% year-over-year [1][3]. - The overall revenue for 2024 is projected at 550 million yuan, reflecting a 19% year-over-year decrease, with a net profit of 30.58 million yuan [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total revenue is expected to grow significantly in the coming years, with projections of 1.025 billion yuan in 2025, 1.278 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.433 billion yuan in 2027, representing year-over-year growth rates of 86.1%, 24.8%, and 12.1% respectively [3][8]. - The net profit is forecasted to rebound sharply, with estimates of 311 million yuan in 2025, 401 million yuan in 2026, and 454 million yuan in 2027, showing year-over-year growth rates of 918.6%, 28.7%, and 13.3% respectively [3][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.13 yuan in 2024 to 1.86 yuan in 2027 [3][8]. Product and Market Insights - The company’s core products, including "Meng San Guo 2" and "Meng Ta Fang," have stable operations, with "Meng San Guo 2" having over 100 million registered users and being included in the Hangzhou Asian Games [7][8]. - The company has a rich pipeline of new products, including "Luo Xuan Yong Shi" and "Jiang Hu Ru Meng," which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [7][8]. - The upcoming game "Xiu Xian Shi Dai," which will be published by Tencent, is anticipated to provide significant revenue and profit elasticity [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 18.80 CNY based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025 [6][10]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leading global manufacturer in System in Package (SiP) technology, benefiting from the growing demand in consumer electronics, AI glasses, and the automotive sector. The report anticipates a recovery in growth starting in 2025, driven by new business opportunities in AI and robotics [6][8][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A to 2027E are as follows: 60,691 million CNY in 2024, 63,750 million CNY in 2025, 72,976 million CNY in 2026, and 80,259 million CNY in 2027, with respective growth rates of -0.2%, 5.0%, 14.5%, and 10.0% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1,652 million CNY in 2024, increasing to 2,916 million CNY by 2027, with growth rates of -15.2%, 24.5%, 23.0%, and 15.3% [2]. - Earnings per share are expected to rise from 0.75 CNY in 2024 to 1.33 CNY in 2027 [2]. Company Overview - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the largest shareholder holding 76.67% of the shares. The management team has extensive industry experience, contributing to the company's strategic execution and operational efficiency [36][37]. - The company operates in six major sectors: wireless communications, consumer electronics, cloud and storage, automotive electronics, industrial, and medical electronics [15][30]. Business Segments - The SiP business is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for lightweight and compact packaging in consumer electronics, particularly in AI glasses and foldable screens [6][8][54]. - The new business initiatives include ASIC chip development and robotics, which are anticipated to become significant growth drivers starting in 2025 [9][10]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading player in the SiP market, with a strong focus on high integration and miniaturization technologies, which are crucial for the evolving consumer electronics landscape [6][8][54]. - The report highlights the company's strategic partnerships and technological advancements that position it favorably within the competitive landscape [6][8].

证 券 研 究 报 告 理财产品跟踪报告 2025 年第 1 期（4 月 21 日-5 月 18 日） 低风险理财、债券型基金受青睐，保险产品 处于转型期 ❑ 在市场持续降息的背景下，存款利率突破历史下限。5 月 20 日央行下调 LPR， 多家银行同步下调存款利率，1 年期定存利率降至 1%以下，传统储蓄产品收 益率优势显著收窄，触发个人投资者大规模资产重配置需求，尤其是同样具有 较高安全性的货基和固收型理财产品。同时，具有一定风险承受能力的资金， 为了追求目标收益率，也存在进一步提升风险偏好，增加权益配置和长期配置 的情况。 ❑ 银行理财产品： ❑ 2025 年 4 月 21 日-5 月 18 日期间，全市场共新发 5097 款理财产品，其中固定 收益类产品占主导，低风险、中短期产品受投资者青睐。固收型理财产品作为 存款的替代需求承接者，在预期收益率同样下行的环境下，依然保持较高的景 气。 ❑ 基金产品： ❑ 保险产品： 产业研究 综合金融 2025 年 05 月 24 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：洪锦屏 电话：0755-82755952 邮箱：hongjinping@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S ...