证 券 研 究 报 告 银行业周报（20250519-20250525） 商业银行一季度经营仍有承压，息差降幅同 推荐（维持） 比收窄 分银行类型来看，商业银行内部表现分化，国有行表现较好，城商行有所改善， 股份行和农商行则经营继续承压。1）国有行主要靠量增维持净利润正增长。 1Q25国有行净利润同比+0.09%。我们推算1Q25国有行贷款同比增速环比+3bp 至 9.29%，贷款增量占比同比+4pct 至 61%。1Q25 净息差环比下降 11bp（1Q24 为-15bp)；2）股份行规模增速放缓，利润增速转负：1Q25 股份行净利润同比 -4.5%，主要是贷款增速放缓（1Q25 贷款同比增速环比-0.28pct 至 4.06%）， 息差同比降幅收窄；3）城商行量价均有改善，利润增速降幅较 24 年收窄： 1Q25 城商行净利润同比-6.68%，增速较 24 年末+6.45pct。一方面是规模加快 扩张，1Q25 贷款增速环比+0.29pct 至 7.98%；另一方面是息差表现较优，1Q25 环比仅下降 1bp 至 1.37%（1Q24 息差降幅为 12bp）；4）农商行息差同比降幅 有所收窄，净利润降幅也 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 钢铁行业周报（20250519-20250523） 推荐（维持） 原料价格回落，钢厂盈利率持续修复 ❑ 行业观点：需求显现淡季特征，钢材价格走弱 事件一：截至 5 月 23 日，五大品种螺纹钢、线材、热轧、冷轧、中板价格分 别报收 3280 元/吨、3617 元/吨、3295 元/吨、3731 元/吨、3521 元/吨，周环比 分别变化-1.50%、-1.09%、-0.75%、-0.97%、-0.52%。本周五大品种产量 872.44 万吨，周环比上升 4.09 万吨。247 家钢铁企业日均铁水 243.6 万吨，周环比下 降 1.17 万吨，高炉产能利用率 91.32%，周环比下降 0.44 个百分点，高炉开工 率 83.69%，周环比下降 0.46 个百分点。短流程企业，电炉产能利用率 59.5%， 周环比上升 2.93 个百分点，电炉开工率 77.18%，周环比上升 1.98 个百分点。 库存方面，本周钢材总库存 1398.54 万吨，周环比下降 32.12 万吨。其中社会 库存环比下降 33.11 万吨至 960.56 万吨；钢厂库存环比增加 0.99 万吨至 437.98 万 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [10][20]. Core Insights - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue but significantly improved its AI capabilities. In Q1 2025, total revenue was 1.228 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.53%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 30 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 390.89%. For 2024, total revenue was 6.203 billion yuan, down 4.93%, with a net profit of 250 million yuan, up 116.19% [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: The company reported a total revenue of 6.240 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 4.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 251 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 116.2% [5]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.27 yuan, 0.39 yuan, and 0.53 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 54, 38, and 28 [5][10]. - **Target Price**: The target price is set at 16.2 yuan, compared to the current price of 13.88 yuan [6]. Business Development Summary - **Digital Cost Business**: In 2024, revenue from this segment was 4.986 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.55%. The business is evolving from single-tool applications to comprehensive cost management solutions, increasing coverage from 53.78% to 79.25% [10]. - **Digital Construction Business**: This segment generated 787 million yuan in revenue for 2024, down 8.71%. The company made advancements in smart construction technologies [10]. - **Digital Design Business**: Revenue increased by 3.28% to 90 million yuan in 2024, with a growing number of application projects [10]. AI and International Expansion - The company has enhanced its AI capabilities, launching new AI-driven products and platforms. In 2024, overseas revenue reached 203 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.07% [10]. Employee Incentives - A new stock option incentive plan was introduced, covering 485 employees with a target net profit of 563 million yuan for 2025, aiming for a 30% growth in 2026 [10]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.443 billion yuan, 6.710 billion yuan, and 6.980 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 448 million yuan, 646 million yuan, and 871 million yuan [10].

证 券 研 究 报 告 有色金属行业周报（20250519-20250523） 几内亚撤销矿权被列为战略储备区，支撑矿 推荐（维持） 石价格上行 ❑ 一、工业金属 ❑ 1、行业观点：几内亚将撤销矿权列为战略储备区，支撑铝土矿价格 事件：几内亚时间 5 月 20 日晚，在几内亚国家电视台上宣读的命令中，过渡 当局决定将几个采矿权归类为战略储备区，包括特许权、工业和半工业开采许 可证，以及铝土矿、铁、金、钻石和石墨的勘探许可证。根据几内亚政府发言 人表示，失去许可证的企业(若有意愿)未来在矿业特许权投放市场时仍可参与 竞标，但需满足相关条件。 观点：我们认为战略储备区内矿石短期复产较难，考虑涉及在产矿山约影响年 化产量接近 4000 万吨，停产后或造成 2025 年几内亚地区铝土矿到中国的增 量从停产前的 3600 万吨下降为 1300 万吨左右，国内铝土矿年化供需处于平 衡点附近。根据 ALD 数据，本周主流成交价格上涨至 74-75 美元/干吨，考虑 几内亚发运到中国需要 1-2 月时间，当前暂未影响到实际的矿石供应，但考虑 到几内亚地区雨季即将来临，停产企业为几内亚主要的现货商之一，未来几个 月矿石现货市场 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the computer industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [45]. Core Insights - The penetration rate of advanced driving assistance systems (ADAS) is expected to accelerate, enhancing the competitiveness of automotive manufacturers. By 2025, the penetration rate of L2 and above intelligent driving functions in China is projected to reach 62%, with high-speed NOA at 10.8% and urban NOA at 9.9% [8][20]. - The global layout of Robotaxi is accelerating, with significant progress in commercialization. Baidu's Robotaxi service, "萝卜快跑," achieved 1.4 million rides in Q1 2025, a 75% year-on-year increase, and plans to expand internationally [9][23]. - Automotive manufacturers are focusing on the iterative upgrade of intelligent driving assistance technologies, with several companies launching new models equipped with advanced sensors and computing platforms [10][29]. Summary by Sections Industry Weekly Viewpoint - The computer sector index decreased by 3.00% from May 19 to May 23, underperforming the ChiNext index by 2.12 percentage points [13]. Market Performance Review - The overall A-share market experienced a net outflow of 2,763.76 billion yuan, with the computer sector seeing a net outflow of 306.98 billion yuan during the same period [15]. Advanced Driving Assistance Systems (ADAS) - The competition in the ADAS market is intensifying, with a shift from price competition to enhancing product value and technological content. The focus is on rapid product launches and widespread coverage across different vehicle brands and models [19]. Robotaxi Commercialization - The report highlights the rapid expansion of Robotaxi services, with significant international deployments and partnerships, indicating a shift towards large-scale operations in the sector [27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Horizon Robotics, SUTENG, Desay SV, and others, as the intelligent driving industry enters a new phase of "technology + regulation + commercialization" [34].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Heston Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The Heston model is used to calculate the implied volatility of near-month at-the-money options, serving as a market fear index. Implied volatility reflects market participants' expectations of future volatility [7]. - **Model Construction Process**: The Heston model is a stochastic volatility model where the variance of the asset price follows a mean-reverting square-root process. The model is defined by the following equations: $ dS_t = \mu S_t dt + \sqrt{v_t} S_t dW_t^1 $ $ dv_t = \kappa (\theta - v_t) dt + \sigma \sqrt{v_t} dW_t^2 $ Here: - \( S_t \): Asset price - \( v_t \): Variance process - \( \mu \): Drift rate of the asset price - \( \kappa \): Rate of mean reversion - \( \theta \): Long-term variance - \( \sigma \): Volatility of volatility - \( W_t^1, W_t^2 \): Two Wiener processes with correlation \( \rho \) [7]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Multi-Long-Short Ratio Scissor Difference - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor is based on the number of stocks with bullish and bearish signals within an industry index. The scissor difference ratio is used to construct an industry timing strategy [15]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Define the number of stocks with bullish signals as \( N_{bull} \) and bearish signals as \( N_{bear} \). - If \( N_{bull} = 0 \), set the bullish count to 0. Similarly, if \( N_{bear} = 0 \), set the bearish count to 0. - The scissor difference is calculated as \( N_{bull} - N_{bear} \), and the ratio is \( \frac{N_{bull} - N_{bear}}{N_{bull} + N_{bear}} \) [15]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The backtesting results show that this factor outperforms the respective industry indices in all cases, indicating excellent historical performance [15]. --- Backtesting Results of Models and Factors 1. Heston Model - **Implied Volatility Results**: - SSE 50: 13.48% (+1.11% WoW) - SSE 500: 16.97% (+0.72% WoW) - CSI 1000: 21.37% (+1.76% WoW) - CSI 300: 13.25% (-0.12% WoW) [9]. 2. Multi-Long-Short Ratio Scissor Difference - **Industry Timing Strategy Results**: - The timing model outperformed the respective industry indices in 100% of cases [15]. - **Specific Industry Examples**: - Retail Trade: Strategy Annualized Return 19.5%, Max Drawdown -43.39%, Index Annualized Return -1.49%, Max Drawdown -77.37% - Home Appliances: Strategy Annualized Return 16.27%, Max Drawdown -38.25%, Index Annualized Return 11.06%, Max Drawdown -48.96% - Comprehensive: Strategy Annualized Return 24.05%, Max Drawdown -40.81%, Index Annualized Return 0.11%, Max Drawdown -81.18% [16][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the communication industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [33]. Core Insights - The report highlights an upward trend in computing power leasing and an increase in military information technology exports, driven by rising demand for AI and advanced computing capabilities [5][21]. - The domestic AI investment outlook remains robust despite short-term capital expenditure pressures, with major companies expected to focus on AI as a core investment area [16][17]. - The "Jiutian" drone, a domestically developed heavy unmanned platform, is set to make its maiden flight by the end of June 2025, showcasing significant technological advancements and enhancing China's competitive edge in the military technology sector [21][22][23]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The communication industry saw a decline of 2.31% this week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [8][9]. - Year-to-date, the communication industry has decreased by 5.56%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 4.22 percentage points [8][9]. Market Performance - The report notes that the communication sector's valuation (PE-TTM) stands at 28.70, compared to 12.55 for the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and 30.68 for the ChiNext index [5]. - The top-performing stocks in the communication sector this week included Fenghuo Electronics (+22.54%) and Dongtu Technology (+14.45%) [12][14]. Computing Power Services - The demand for computing power services is rapidly increasing, with significant growth in leasing and related services due to ongoing chip restrictions [15][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring financing channels, order contracts, technological barriers, and service implementation timelines for companies in this sector [17]. Military Technology - The "Jiutian" drone is expected to redefine the operational boundaries of unmanned aerial vehicles, with capabilities that surpass those of existing military drones [21][22]. - The drone's advanced features and performance metrics position it as a competitive player in the international military technology market, enhancing China's export potential [23]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include major telecommunications operators such as China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, as well as companies in the military and satellite communication sectors like Haige Communication and Shanghai Hanyun [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the computer industry, expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [45]. Core Insights - The penetration rate of advanced driving assistance systems (ADAS) is expected to accelerate, enhancing the competitiveness of automotive manufacturers. By 2025, the penetration rate of L2 and above intelligent driving functions in China is projected to reach 62%, with highway NOA at 10.8% and city NOA at 9.9% [8][20]. - The global layout of Robotaxi is accelerating, with significant progress in commercialization. Baidu's Robotaxi service, "萝卜快跑," achieved 1.4 million rides in Q1 2025, a 75% year-on-year increase, and plans to expand internationally [9][23]. - Automotive manufacturers are focusing on the iterative upgrade of intelligent driving assistance technologies, with several companies launching new models equipped with advanced sensors and computing platforms [10][29]. Summary by Sections Industry Weekly Viewpoint - The computer sector index decreased by 3.00% from May 19 to May 23, underperforming the ChiNext index by 2.12 percentage points [13]. Market Performance Review - The overall A-share market experienced a net outflow of 276.38 billion yuan, with the computer sector seeing a net outflow of 30.70 billion yuan during the same period [15]. Advanced Driving Assistance Systems (ADAS) - The competition in the ADAS market is intensifying, with a shift from price competition to enhancing product value and technological content. The focus is on rapid product launches and widespread coverage across different vehicle brands and models [19]. Robotaxi Commercialization - The report highlights the rapid expansion of Robotaxi services, with major players like Waymo and Tesla also advancing their commercial operations. The global market for Robotaxi is expected to grow significantly, driven by technological advancements and market openness [27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from the acceleration of intelligent driving penetration, including Horizon Robotics, SUTENG, Desay SV, and others [11][34].

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 科创债发行规模连续两周破千亿 ——信用周报 20250525 ❖ 科创债发行情况跟踪 1、以 2021 年以来推出的科创公司债、科创票据及 2025 年 5 月启动发行的科 技创新债券为合并统计口径，截至 2025 年 5 月 24 日，科创债已累计发行 2757 只，发行规模合计约 2.9 万亿元。 2、本周科创债发行规模创历史新高，单周发行规模连续两周突破千亿。本周 （5 月 19 日-5 月 23 日）共发行科创债 44 只，合计发行规模 1255 亿元；上周 （5 月 12 日-5 月 16 日）共发行科创债 52 只，合计发行规模 1098 亿元。 3、从 5 月以来科创债发行主体类型看，银行是新增发行科创债的主力，券商 亦积极参与。5 月以来共有 116 家主体新增发行科创债 3317.5 亿元，均为非城 投平台（Wind 口径）。其中金融机构 34 家，包括银行 15 家、证券公司 19 家， 发行规模分别为 1950 亿元、219 亿元。 4、从 5 月以来科创债发行主体区域分布看，北京发行规模最大，达 1721.5 亿 元（其中银行发行 125 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 通信行业周报（20250519-20250525） 推荐（维持） 算力租赁景气度向上，军工信息化外贸升温 行业研究 通信 2025 年 05 月 25 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：欧子兴 邮箱：ouzixing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080007 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 124 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 47,451.85 | 4.77 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 20,977.93 | 2.65 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 3.2% | -1.9% | 17.9% | | 相对表现 | 0.7% | -2.3% | 11.3% | -12% 5% 23% 41% 24/05 24/08 24/10 24/12 25/03 25/05 2024-05-24~2025-05-23 通信 沪深300 相关研究报告 《通信行业周报（20250512-20250518） ...