金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场形态周报（20250908-20250912） 本周指数普遍上涨 ❖ 本周市场回顾与最新信号 从本周的指数表现来看，本周指数普遍上涨，其中沪深 300 上涨 1.38%，中证 500 上涨 3.38%，中证 1000 上涨 2.45%。 当前，上证 50 的隐含波动率为 19.61%，相对于上周下跌了 0.12%。上证 500 的隐含波动率为 23.23%，相对于上周下跌了 0.17%。中证 1000 的隐含波动率 为 25.45%，相对于上周下跌了 0.49%。沪深 300 的隐含波动率为 20.56%，相 对于上周上涨了 0.29%。 我们统计了最近信号的次数和胜率。2025 年 9 月 1 日到 2025 年 9 月 5 日正面 信号共出现了 3061 次，未来高点平均胜率为 61.14%，负面信号出现 3086 次， 未来低点平均胜率为 37.14%。 从宽基择时策略来看，沪深 300、上证 50、万德微盘股指数、恒生指数、恒生 可持续发展企业指数、恒生等权重、恒生香港 35 出现看多信号，其余宽基信 号为中性。 从行业形态择时策略来看，建材、轻工制造、家电、电力 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Strong Buy" with a target price of 19.2 CNY per share [2][6]. Core Views - The company achieved total operating revenue of 9.256 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.87%. The total profit reached 405 million CNY, up 37.01% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 303 million CNY, an increase of 36.66% year-on-year [2]. - The wind power blade segment generated sales revenue of 3.911 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 39.38%, maintaining a leading position in the domestic market. The company has established strategic partnerships with major wind turbine manufacturers and expanded its overseas market presence significantly [2][6]. - The new materials and other segments achieved sales revenue of 250 million CNY, a remarkable year-on-year growth of 116.71%, indicating a rapid development phase [2][6]. - The company is focusing on energy transportation sectors, emphasizing vibration reduction and lightweight material technologies, with expectations for substantial profit growth in the coming years [2][6]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2024A to 2027E, the projected total operating revenue is expected to grow from 20.055 billion CNY to 24.985 billion CNY, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 14.4%, 7.3%, 10.9%, and 4.7% respectively [2][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 445 million CNY in 2024A to 1.087 billion CNY in 2027E, with significant growth rates of 15.2%, 70.9%, 18.0%, and 21.2% [2][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.48 CNY in 2024A to 1.17 CNY in 2027E, reflecting the company's improving profitability [2][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Kweichow Moutai (600519) with a target price of 2600 CNY [2]. Core Views - The report highlights a significant improvement in sales velocity and market sentiment for Kweichow Moutai, especially as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approach, leading to a recovery in distributor confidence [2]. - The company is focusing on long-term strategies to adapt to market demands and enhance its operational efficiency through three key transformations [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a strong market presence and adapting to consumer needs, which is expected to drive sales growth in the upcoming months [2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Kweichow Moutai has a total share capital of 125,227.02 million shares and a total market value of 189.73 billion CNY [2]. - The company has a low debt-to-asset ratio of 14.75% and a net asset value per share of 189.98 CNY [2]. Sales Performance - Sales of Moutai liquor showed a month-on-month increase of approximately 15% to 35% in August, with expectations for double-digit year-on-year growth in September [2]. - The report attributes this growth to improved demand, effective management strategies, and enhanced distributor confidence [2]. Financial Projections - Projected total revenue for 2024 is 174.14 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.7% [6]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is 86.23 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 15.4% [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 68.86 CNY in 2024, with a gradual increase to 80.18 CNY by 2027 [6]. Market Strategy - Kweichow Moutai is committed to a long-term approach, focusing on consumer-centric marketing and operational transformations to enhance competitiveness [2]. - The company is also working on brand rejuvenation and international market expansion, with overseas revenue increasing by 31.3% in the first half of the year [2]. Value Management - The report discusses the implementation of a systematic value management approach, including a three-year dividend plan with a minimum payout ratio of 75% [2]. - The company is planning a new round of share buybacks and encouraging major shareholders to increase their holdings, reflecting confidence in future growth [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 292 CNY, reflecting an expected performance that exceeds the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [8][24]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 16.743 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 18.45% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.069 billion CNY, down 32.96% [2]. - The international market shows steady growth, with a 5.39% increase in revenue, while the domestic market is expected to improve in Q3 2025 due to the revival of bidding activities [8]. - The in-vitro diagnostics (IVD) business is accelerating its internationalization, achieving double-digit growth in international markets, despite a 16.11% decline in domestic revenue [8]. - The medical imaging segment benefits from the launch of high-end ultrasound systems, maintaining a strong market share despite overall procurement pressures in the domestic market [8]. - The life information and support business faces domestic challenges but is expected to gain momentum from the introduction of high-value consumables [8]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 11.79 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.0%, with further growth expected in subsequent years [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 9.72 CNY in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25 [4]. - The total revenue is expected to grow from 36.726 billion CNY in 2024 to 49.086 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.4% [4]. Market Performance - The company’s stock price has shown fluctuations, with a 12-month high of 324.50 CNY and a low of 211.59 CNY, indicating volatility in market performance [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 39.81 CNY per share [2][8]. Core Views - The company's OBM (Original Brand Manufacturing) business is driving growth, while profits are under short-term pressure. The first half of 2025 saw revenue of 5.347 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.55% to 181 million CNY [2][8]. - The OBM business achieved approximately 2.96 billion CNY in revenue in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 26.8%, with cross-border e-commerce being the main growth driver [8]. - Traditional ODM/OEM business revenue was approximately 2.359 billion CNY, down 4.1% year-on-year, primarily due to a reclassification of sales channels [8]. - The company implemented effective cost control measures, resulting in a decrease in sales, management, and financial expense ratios [8]. - The report forecasts net profits of 369 million CNY, 504 million CNY, and 679 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12, 9, and 7 [8]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 5.347 billion CNY, with a net profit of 181 million CNY, reflecting a decline in profitability [2][8]. - The projected total revenue for 2025 is 12.905 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17% [4]. - The company’s gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 17.88%, down 3.28 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 11.883 billion CNY by 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 94.8% [9].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 136.15 CNY based on a valuation of 35 times the expected earnings per share in 2026 [3][10]. Core Views - The company has established a strong foundation in small molecule CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) services and is gradually entering a harvest phase with its emerging businesses. The dual growth drivers are expected to position the company as a leading technology-driven one-stop CDMO service provider [2][8]. Summary by Sections Small Molecule CDMO - The small molecule CDMO business is the cornerstone of the company's operations, leveraging advanced technologies such as continuous reaction and biocatalysis to create competitive advantages in cost and efficiency. The company is expected to maintain steady growth in this segment due to increasing demand for high-value orders and expansion into international markets [9][26]. - In 2024, the small molecule business is projected to generate revenue of 45.71 billion CNY, with a gross margin of 47.95%. The company anticipates 12 projects in the validation phase for 2025, ensuring a robust order backlog for sustained growth [26][49]. Emerging Businesses - The company has diversified into several emerging business segments, including chemical macromolecule CDMO, clinical CRO (Contract Research Organization), and biopharmaceutical services. These segments are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with the emerging business generating 12.26 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.25% [57][60]. - The chemical macromolecule CDMO segment, which includes peptides and oligonucleotides, is experiencing rapid commercialization, with a revenue increase of 13.3% in 2024 [59]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 11.70 billion CNY, 14.04 billion CNY, and 17.00 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 23.3%, 20.0%, and 21.1% [10][16]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 3.24 CNY in 2025 to 4.71 CNY by 2027, indicating a strong upward trajectory in profitability [10][16]. Market Position and Strategy - The company aims to enhance its global footprint by expanding its production capabilities in Europe and Japan, particularly through the acquisition of the Sandwich Site in the UK, which is expected to bolster its service offerings and client penetration in these regions [54][56]. - The report highlights the company's commitment to maintaining a high level of research and development investment, which is crucial for sustaining its competitive edge in the rapidly evolving pharmaceutical landscape [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Strong Buy" [2][8] Core Views - The company's core business remains resilient, with an increase in profitability despite a slight decline in revenue [2][8] - The company reported a revenue of 4.61 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 710 million yuan, down 6.3% year-on-year [2][8] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.53 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, and a net profit of 370 million yuan, up 3.0% year-on-year [2][8] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 11,213 million yuan in 2024 to 12,843 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.4% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1,577 million yuan in 2024 to 1,870 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 5.7% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.67 yuan in 2024 to 1.98 yuan in 2027 [4] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company maintains a leading market position in key product categories, with market shares in range hoods, gas stoves, dishwashers, and integrated machines ranking first or third [8] - The company benefits from national subsidy policies, which support demand recovery despite the challenging real estate market [8] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin improved to 50.4% in H1 2025, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a better product mix and higher sales of high-margin products [8] - The net profit margin reached 14.7% in Q2 2025, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to stable expense management and increased gross margins [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while short-term demand is pressured by the real estate market, the company is well-positioned for medium to long-term growth through diversified product development [8] - The target price is set at 25.4 yuan, indicating potential upside from the current price of 19.47 yuan [4][8]

Demand-Side Analysis - In August, the growth rate of cyclical demand dropped to 2.2%, significantly lower than the nominal GDP growth rate of Q2, indicating a potential need for policy support[3] - The composite PMI output index averaged 50.3% in July and August, suggesting a possible policy response if it continues to decline in September[3] Policy Direction - Current low inflation suggests that policy measures should focus on boosting terminal demand without increasing future industrial supply[4] - Possible directions include promoting service consumption and advancing major projects from the 14th Five-Year Plan[4] Economic Data Overview - In August, industrial production growth was 5.2%, while the service sector's production index was 5.6%[5] - Retail sales growth year-on-year was 3.4%, down from 3.7% in the previous month[5] - Fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year decline of 7.1%, compared to a previous decline of 5.3%[5] Real Estate Sector - Real estate sales area decreased by 10.6% year-on-year in August, worsening from a 7.8% decline in July[5] - Real estate investment in August fell by 19.4% year-on-year, indicating ongoing sector challenges[5] Employment and Inflation - The urban survey unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in August, reflecting seasonal trends[26] - CPI was down 0.4% year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 2.9%, indicating deflationary pressures[24]

证 券 研 究 报 告 计算机行业重大事项点评 稳增长方案发布，L3+智能驾驶迎产业新机 事项： ❑ 9 月 12 日，工业和信息化部等八部门公布关于印发《汽车行业稳增长工作方 案(2025—2026 年)》的通知。 评论： 行业研究 计算机 2025 年 09 月 16 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 联系人：周志浩 邮箱：zhouzhihao1@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 337 | 0.04 | | 总市值(亿元) | 59,813.55 | 5.10 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 53,712.71 | 5.68 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 6.9% | 9.8% | 106.8% | | 相对表现 | -1.0% | -3.3% | 63.3% | 0% 39% 78% 117% 24/09 24 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry, expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [36]. Core Insights - The real estate sector saw a 6.0% increase in the week of September 8-12, 2025, ranking second among 31 primary industry sectors [8][10]. - New housing transactions in 20 cities increased by 5% week-on-week, while second-hand housing transactions rose by 19% [21][26]. - The report highlights effective policy measures, including increased housing purchase subsidies and optimized housing provident fund policies, aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [13][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The total market capitalization of the real estate sector is approximately 1,233.62 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 1,183.33 billion yuan [2]. Sales Performance - New housing transaction volume in 20 cities decreased by 1% year-on-year, while second-hand housing transaction volume increased by 8% year-on-year [21][22]. - The average daily transaction area for new homes was 23.7 million square meters, with total transactions reaching 166 million square meters for the week [20][21]. Policy News - Local governments, such as Shenzhen and Henan, have implemented measures to support housing consumption, including subsidies for first and second home purchases and increased loan limits for housing provident funds [13][16]. Company Dynamics - Notable companies reported varying sales figures, with CIFI Holdings achieving approximately 9.6 billion yuan in contract sales for August 2025, while China Jinmao reported 9.08 billion yuan [17][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with strong product moats and stable rental income from quality commercial real estate [28].