Group 1: Consumption Strategy and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-growth new consumption sectors, dividend defensive stocks, and traditional companies transitioning to new consumption [3][13] - High-growth new consumption opportunities include new tobacco products, beauty care, trendy toys, pet products, and tea beverages [3][13] - Dividend defensive stocks are prioritized due to unclear policy signals and ongoing domestic demand impacts, with a focus on white goods [3][13] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Midstream Consumption Tracking - In April, the domestic CPI remained stable with a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 0.5% [4][14] - April's export growth reached 8.1% year-on-year, marking the highest since 2022, although it showed signs of slowing due to a decrease in home appliance exports [4][16] Group 3: Home Appliances - In April, the overall retail sales of home appliances increased by 21.8% online and 18.6% offline, with the national subsidy for 11 major categories growing by 18.2% [7][28] - Specific categories showed varied performance: air conditioners up 34.8%, refrigerators up 1.0%, and washing machines up 10.8% online [7][28][29] Group 4: Light Industry Manufacturing - The new tobacco sector is experiencing upward momentum, with clear growth trends in the HNB industry and potential market share gains for companies like Smoore International [7][30] - The trendy toy market remains robust, with GMV growth of 109% in April year-on-year, driven by new company entries and innovative operational strategies [7][30] Group 5: Textile and Apparel - The easing of US tariffs is expected to boost export and domestic demand, with a focus on new consumption and brands with unique advantages [7][33][37] - The textile manufacturing sector is seeing a recovery in client confidence following tariff reductions, which may lead to increased orders and improved domestic factory utilization [7][37] Group 6: Social Services - The tea beverage sector is benefiting from improved same-store sales and competitive dynamics in the takeaway market, with expectations for further growth [7][35] - Hotel performance showed strong leisure demand during the May holiday, although business travel remains weak [7][35] Group 7: Retail and E-commerce - The competitive landscape in the takeaway market is evolving, with regulatory pressures on major platforms like Meituan and JD, although the overall competition remains intense [7][36] - Meituan's initiatives in instant retail and national subsidies are expected to impact JD's core categories significantly [7][38]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on leading domestic generative large model companies such as iFLYTEK, and highlights potential in AI hardware applications, recommending companies like Yingshi Network and Hongsoft Technology [2] Core Insights - The AI industry chain is expected to maintain high prosperity, with computing power sustaining high levels and application acceleration [11] - The report anticipates that overall demand in the second half of the year may be stronger than in the first half, driven by policy and funding support [11] - The report identifies several sectors with varying degrees of prosperity, including AI, intelligent driving, software outsourcing, and financial IT, with some sectors like construction and medical IT showing weaker prospects [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The report discusses the launch of image generation features by Manus and video generation models by Huoshan Engine, emphasizing the flexibility and commercial potential of these technologies [11] - It notes that approximately 90% of computing demand comes from domestic G-end and large B-end users, indicating a lag in demand response to policy changes [11] 2. Sector Performance - The report categorizes the prosperity of various sub-sectors, indicating that AI applications and intelligent driving are accelerating upwards, while sectors like construction IT and medical IT are at a low point [10][12] 3. Market Review - From May 12 to May 16, 2025, the computer industry index fell by 1.26%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.38 percentage points [16] 4. Upcoming Events - The report highlights several upcoming industry events, including the VR/AR Expo in Shanghai and the Google I/O Developer Conference, suggesting potential investment opportunities in related sectors [30][31]

通信周观点： 1）美国商务部 5 月 13 日升级对华芯片管制，撤销《AI 扩散规则》并出台三项新规：全球禁用华为昇腾芯片、限制美 芯片用于中国 AI 训练、强化供应链审查。此外黄仁勋受访时表示英伟达将重新推出面向中国市场的芯片，但不会再 推出 Hopper 系列产品，预计将采用 GDDR7 显存替代 HBM 高带宽内存，以满足美国出口限制要求。我们认为从性能看， 国产芯片性能或将大超英伟达改版后芯片性能，利好国产算力芯片。2）因英伟达 AI 芯片出货量不及预期（GB200 出 货不及预期，且 H20 受到管制，NVIDIA 计提约 55 亿美元的与 H20 相关的费用损失），而国内芯片供应增长需要时间， 阿里、腾讯等互联网厂商 1Q25 资本支出略低于市场预期。我们认为短期看，互联网厂商全年资本开支可能略有下滑， 但这也将加速 AI 芯片的国产替代进程。长期看伴随国产 AI 芯片的起量，AI 仍将驱动业务增长。3）英伟达 5 月 14 日 宣布在上海设立 AI 芯片研发中心，并与沙特签署 18000 台 GB300 服务器订单。此举凸显其全球布局战略，将推动高 速光模块及液冷技术需求。海外算力基建需求激增， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook on the photovoltaic and energy storage sectors, highlighting key companies such as Sungrow Power and Canadian Solar for continued recommendation [2][5]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is transitioning from a state of excess supply to a more balanced market, driven by both policy support and self-initiated industry adjustments. The easing of US-China trade tensions is seen as a significant benefit for large-scale energy storage [2][5]. - In the wind energy sector, major contracts and investments are being made, indicating a robust growth trajectory for leading turbine manufacturers [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the integration of artificial intelligence in the power grid, suggesting that companies involved in grid informatization will benefit from this trend [7][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Photovoltaic & Energy Storage - The photovoltaic sector is showing signs of recovery, with government policies aimed at resolving structural issues. The focus is shifting from forced interventions to voluntary industry cooperation [2][5]. - Key developments include the issuance of manufacturing standards by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the publication of a white paper on artificial intelligence in the power sector [5][8]. - Recommended companies include Sungrow Power, Canadian Solar, and others that are expected to benefit from the easing of trade tensions and new pricing policies [5][8]. Wind Energy - Major contracts, such as a €1 billion order from a European offshore wind project, highlight the growth potential in this sector. The report anticipates nearly 20 GW of offshore wind projects to be tendered between 2025 and 2026 [5][6]. - Companies like Goldwind and Envision are expected to see improved profitability as they expand their international presence [5][6]. Electric Grid - The National Grid's white paper on artificial intelligence outlines a comprehensive plan for integrating AI into power production, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency [7][8]. - The report notes that the upcoming high-voltage direct current projects are set to commence in December 2025, indicating a significant investment phase for related companies [7][8]. New Energy Vehicles & Lithium Batteries - The report indicates a slowdown in year-on-year growth for new energy vehicles, with a current growth rate of approximately 5%. However, a month-on-month increase of 30% suggests seasonal fluctuations are normal [3][9]. - The reduction of tariffs on lithium batteries is expected to boost exports to the US, with companies like BETTERRY and Guoxuan High-Tech launching new solid-state battery products [3][11]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The development of green liquid fuels is gaining momentum, with pilot projects being initiated in Jiangsu province. This is expected to create new opportunities in the hydrogen sector [10][12]. - The report highlights the importance of hydrogen highways as a key application for hydrogen vehicles, with several provinces implementing toll exemptions to promote this initiative [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on sectors with high growth certainty in the first half of the year, particularly in AI-PCB, SOC chips, computing power chips, and the Apple supply chain [5][27]. Core Insights - The upcoming COMPUTEX 2025 will showcase significant advancements in AI and related technologies, with major companies like NVIDIA and AMD presenting their latest innovations [2]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing demand for consumer electronics driven by product upgrades and AI innovations, predicting a 13.37% revenue growth in the consumer electronics sector for 2024 [6]. - The semiconductor industry is expected to see a robust recovery, with significant growth in demand for AI-related hardware and components [24][25]. Summary by Sections Consumer Electronics - Revenue for consumer electronics in 2024 is projected at 1,642.456 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.25% and a net profit increase of 13.37% [6]. - The demand is driven by both traditional product upgrades and new AI applications, including AI smartphones and robotics [6]. PCB Industry - The PCB industry is experiencing a significant upward trend, with expectations of continued high demand due to AI and consumer electronics [9]. - The report indicates a strong recovery in the PCB sector, particularly in copper-clad laminate, with anticipated substantial growth in Q2 2025 [9]. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry is projected to benefit from increased capital expenditures from cloud computing companies, with a notable rise in DRAM and NAND Flash prices expected [23]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic semiconductor equipment and materials in light of geopolitical tensions and export controls [24]. Key Companies - Companies such as North Huachuang and Hengxuan Technology are highlighted for their strong positions in the semiconductor equipment and AIoT sectors, respectively [29][30]. - Jiangfeng Electronics is noted for its growth in ultra-pure target materials, which are crucial for semiconductor manufacturing [32]. - The report also emphasizes the potential of companies like Zhaoyi Innovation and Huiding Technology in benefiting from the AI-driven storage upgrade trend [34][31].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the carbon fiber sector, particularly for companies like Jilin Chemical Fiber and Zhongfu Shenying, due to increasing demand driven by the low-altitude economy and UAV applications [14][15]. Core Insights - Jilin Chemical Fiber announced a price increase of 10,000 yuan per ton for its wet 3K carbon fiber products, driven by strong demand and supply constraints [14]. - The carbon fiber composite materials are critical for lightweighting in low-altitude economy aircraft, comprising approximately 60-80% of the total structure weight of UAVs [14]. - The eVTOL market in China is projected to exceed 100,000 units by 2030, potentially increasing carbon fiber demand by approximately 20,400 tons [14]. - The report highlights ongoing supportive policies for the low-altitude economy, including a 300 million yuan annual fund in Sichuan to promote development [14]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Discussion - Jilin Chemical Fiber's price adjustment reflects the growing demand in the low-altitude economy and UAV sectors, with carbon fiber being a key material [14]. 2. Belt and Road Initiative - Recent developments include Colombia's intention to join the Belt and Road Initiative and cooperation agreements signed between China and Brazil [15]. 3. Cyclical Linkage - The report provides insights into various construction materials, noting a slight decline in cement prices and stable pricing in the glass and fiberglass sectors [16][19]. 4. National Subsidy Tracking - The home appliance market shows significant growth during the May Day holiday, with online retail sales increasing by 24.7% year-on-year [17]. 5. Important Changes - The report notes the cancellation of 91% of tariffs between the US and China, which may positively impact trade dynamics [18]. 6. Market Performance - The construction materials index showed a slight decline of 0.29% during the week, with specific sectors like glass manufacturing experiencing a 0.60% drop [19]. 7. Building Material Price Changes - Cement prices have decreased by 1.1%, with regional variations noted, while glass prices have also shown a downward trend due to weak demand [28][41].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for Yingliu Co., driven by the rising demand in the "two machines" sector, with a projected average global gas turbine sales increase of 36% from 44.1 GW in 2023 to 60 GW from 2024 to 2026 [5][25]. - The nuclear fusion sector is expected to see accelerated bidding activity in 2025, with over 70 tenders reported for the Hefei BEST project this year, indicating a robust market environment [5][25]. - Huawei's collaboration with UBTECH in humanoid robotics and Tesla's advancements in their Optimus project signal a rapid development in the humanoid robotics industry [5][25]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index rose by 0.35% during the week of May 12-16, 2025, ranking 18th among 31 primary industry categories, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.12% [3][13]. - Year-to-date, the SW Machinery Equipment Index has increased by 9.47%, ranking 3rd among the 31 primary industry categories, contrasting with a 1.16% decline in the CSI 300 Index [3][17]. Key Data Tracking General Machinery - The manufacturing PMI for April was reported at 49.0, indicating a slight decline, with new orders PMI at 49.2, reflecting a decrease of 2.6 percentage points [24]. Engineering Machinery - In April 2025, excavator sales reached 22,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, with exports at 9,595 units, up 19.3% [38]. Railway Equipment - From January to April 2025, railway fixed asset investment and passenger volume increased by 5.3% and 5.9% respectively, indicating a recovery in railway equipment demand [40]. Shipbuilding - The global new ship price index reached 187.43 in April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.32%, suggesting improved profitability for shipbuilding companies [43]. Oilfield Equipment - Brent crude oil prices fluctuated around $65 per barrel, with ongoing monitoring of production increases and trade negotiations between China and the US [46]. Industrial Gases - Industrial gas prices are experiencing fluctuations, with both liquid oxygen and nitrogen prices showing variability [49]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes significant developments in the general machinery sector, including the delivery of key nuclear pump equipment and advancements in liquid cooling technology for data centers [50]. - The report also mentions a major breakthrough in natural gas exploration by Sinopec in Sichuan, which could enhance the region's production capabilities [51].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the chemical industry, with a recommendation for a defensive investment strategy due to ongoing market uncertainties [2][25]. Core Insights - The chemical market has seen an increase due to unexpected tariff reductions, with the Shenwan Chemical Index rising by 1.82%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.7% [2][10]. - The report highlights strong performance in military and robotics sectors, as well as stocks benefiting from tariff reductions [2]. - The easing of tariffs between China and the US, with a cancellation of 91% of additional tariffs, is expected to lead to a recovery in previously depressed export chains [2][3]. - Oil prices are projected to stabilize within a range, influenced by geopolitical factors and demand dynamics [2]. - The AI sector is showing significant growth, with major companies reporting substantial contributions from AI capabilities [2]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Brent crude oil futures average price was $65.52 per barrel, up 5.6% from the previous week, while WTI futures averaged $62.58 per barrel, an increase of 5.98% [10]. - The basic chemical sector outperformed the index, while the petrochemical sector underperformed [10]. - The top three performing sub-industries were viscose (8.72%), polyester (8.63%), and coatings (6.3%) [11]. Recent Views from the Chemical Team - The tire industry is recovering with increased operating rates and demand, while raw material prices are rising [25]. - The sweetener market, particularly sucralose, is showing signs of improvement with stable pricing and reduced supply [26]. - The dye market remains stable, with steady pricing and normal production levels [27]. - The DMC market is experiencing upward price movement due to improved downstream demand [27]. Key Industry Information - The titanium dioxide market is under pressure due to weak demand and reduced production rates [28]. - The vitamin E market is facing downward price pressure, with significant fluctuations in pricing reported [29]. - The coal chemical sector is stabilizing, with coal prices under pressure but showing signs of bottoming out [38][39].

Investment Rating - The report recommends investing in the logistics sector, specifically highlighting SF Holding as a strong candidate due to its valuation, operational resilience, and shareholder returns [2]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector saw a year-on-year growth of 19.1% in business volume for April, while the average revenue per package decreased by 7% [2]. - The logistics sector is under pressure with domestic shipping prices for liquid chemicals declining, but there is a push towards smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. being recommended [3]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a recovery with an increase in flight operations and a new visa-free policy expected to boost inbound tourism [4]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index increased by 2.1% from May 10 to May 16, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1% [12]. Express Delivery - In April, the express delivery business volume reached 163.2 billion packages, a 19.1% increase year-on-year, with revenue of 121.28 billion yuan, up 10.8% [2]. - The average revenue per package was 7.43 yuan, down 7% year-on-year [2]. Logistics - The domestic shipping price for liquid chemicals was 163 yuan/ton, down 15.1% year-on-year [3]. - Hai Chen Co. is recommended due to its focus on smart logistics and improving demand in the consumer electronics sector [3]. Aviation and Airports - The average daily flight operations reached 14,919, a 5.58% increase year-on-year, with international flights up 17.67% [4]. - The introduction of visa-free travel for five countries is expected to enhance tourism [4]. Shipping - The export container shipping index (CCFI) was 1,104.88 points, down 0.1% week-on-week and down 20.5% year-on-year [22]. - The domestic container shipping index (PDCI) was 1,163 points, down 0.8% week-on-week but up 7.8% year-on-year [33]. Road and Rail - National highway truck traffic increased by 15.15% week-on-week, with a total of 51.75 million trucks [82]. - Railway passenger turnover was 1,121.34 billion person-kilometers, down 1.31% year-on-year [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of May 16, the weighted average trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.21 years and 2.72 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.09 years, 3.52 years, and 2.21 years respectively. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.64 years, 2.33 years, 3.51 years, and 1.50 years respectively, with securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds at lower historical quantiles and insurance company bonds and leasing company bonds at higher historical quantiles [2][10]. - The coupon duration congestion index declined and then slightly increased. After reaching its highest value in March 2024, it decreased but slightly increased this week compared to last week, currently at the 53.7% level since March 2021 [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Full - variety Term Overview - The weighted average trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.21 years and 2.72 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.09 years, 3.52 years, and 2.21 years respectively. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.64 years, 2.33 years, 3.51 years, and 1.50 years respectively [2][10]. - The coupon duration congestion index declined and then slightly increased, currently at the 53.7% level since March 2021 [12]. 3.2 Variety Microscope Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average trading duration of urban investment bonds hovered around 2.21 years. The durations of Sichuan provincial and Shaanxi provincial urban investment bonds exceeded 6 years, while the duration of Hebei provincial urban investment bonds significantly shortened. The historical quantiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in certain regions such as Jiangsu prefecture - level cities, Jiangsu district - level counties, Zhejiang prefecture - level cities, Beijing district - level counties, Guangdong district - level counties, Sichuan province, Henan province, Jiangxi prefecture - level cities, Anhui province, Anhui prefecture - level cities, Shaanxi province, Guangxi province, and Yunnan province exceeded 90%. The duration of Jiangsu district - level county urban investment bonds approached the highest level since 2021 [3][16]. Industrial Bonds - The weighted average trading duration of industrial bonds slightly lengthened compared to last week, generally around 2.72 years. The trading duration of the food and beverage industry significantly shortened to 1.30 years, while that of the public utilities industry lengthened to 3.17 years. The trading durations of industries such as food and beverage were at lower historical quantiles, while those of public utilities, transportation, steel, and non - ferrous metals were at over 90% historical quantiles [3][21]. Commercial Bank Bonds - The duration of bank perpetual bonds slightly shortened to 3.52 years this week, at the 63.8% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds lengthened to 4.09 years, at the 91.2% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year. The duration of general commercial financial bonds lengthened to 2.21 years, at the 78.2% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year [3][23]. Other Financial Bonds - In terms of the weighted average trading duration, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at 78.4%, 58.7%, 49.5%, and 93.5% historical quantiles respectively. The durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, and leasing company bonds slightly lengthened compared to last week [4][26].