1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current rally in ultra - long credit bonds is a sentiment - driven "technical rebound." The sustainability of this rally largely depends on the performance of the interest - rate bond market. Given the insufficient conditions for a trend - based upward movement, such as local bond supply pressure, weak core buying power, and limited room for credit spread compression, it is recommended to adopt a trading - range strategy. Investors should closely monitor marginal changes in central bank monetary policy signals and stock market performance and set timely profit - taking targets. [5][45] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Market Characteristics - Ultra - long - end bonds led the market recovery. During the week of January 19 - 23, 2026, the bond market rebounded under the policy expectation of "room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" and the large - scale MLF injection by the central bank. Yields of various bond varieties mostly declined, and ultra - long credit bonds strengthened. The number of outstanding ultra - long credit bonds with a yield of 2.4% - 2.5% increased to 357 compared to the previous week. [2][13] 3.2 Primary Issuance Situation - The subscription sentiment for new ultra - long urban investment bonds increased. The total supply of new ultra - long credit bonds this week was 10.27 billion, with a slight increase. The issuance rate of new ultra - long urban investment bonds dropped to around 2.6%, while the overall rate of new ultra - long industrial bonds increased due to the relatively high coupon of Yangzhou Jiankong's new bond. Despite the hot secondary - market trading of ultra - long bonds and the central bank's strong intention to support the liquidity, the subscription enthusiasm for new ultra - long industrial bonds declined, and only the subscription sentiment for new ultra - long urban investment bonds improved. [3][22] 3.3 Secondary Trading Performance - Ultra - long credit bond indices followed the upward trend. The ultra - long Treasury bonds performed strongly this week. Due to the anxiety of investors who missed the opportunity, they chased other long - duration bond varieties passively, leading to a short - squeeze situation in ultra - long credit bonds. Compared with the previous week, the ChinaBond full - price indices of AA+ credit bonds with maturities of 7 - 10 years and over 10 years increased by 0.29% and 0.35% respectively, outperforming long - end secondary bonds and medium - to - short - term credit bonds. [4][30] - The trading activity of ultra - long credit bonds improved. The average trading yield of over - 10 - year general - credit bonds declined significantly. The yields of over - 10 - year urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased by 12bp and 7bp respectively compared to the previous week. Meanwhile, the trading volume also increased. The number of trading transactions of ultra - long general - credit bonds rebounded to 390, and the weekly trading volume of 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds exceeded 200 again. [4][32] - The TKN ratio of 7 - 10 - year general - credit bonds rebounded to 74%. The trading direction in the past two weeks shifted to low - valuation transactions, indicating a significant recovery in the sentiment of going long on long - term bonds. [4] - In terms of investor structure, public funds and wealth management products remained cautious about long - duration and illiquid bond varieties. Funds only slightly increased their holdings of 7 - 10 - year bonds. Insurance companies and other institutions are the main buyers of ultra - long non - financial credit bonds, but due to the expected slowdown in premium income growth and the positive outlook for the stock market, the incremental demand for bond investment from insurance funds may weaken, and their role as the "stabilizer" of ultra - long bonds is being challenged. [4][43]

投资逻辑 公司基本盘复苏，国产替代打开主业增长空间。谐波减速器是技术 密集型行业，材料、加工工艺、加工设备等方面均存在较高技术壁 垒，以公司为首的国产谐波减速器厂商经过多年发展，打破了国际 品牌在国内机器人谐波减速器领域的垄断、并持续深化国产替代。 公司技术+成本优势领先，中商情报局披露，2024 年公司市占率 达到全球 12%，位居全球第二，国产第一。受公共安全事件结束和新 能源汽车、3C 电子等下游需求拉动影响，2024-2025 年行业持续回 暖，国家统计局披露，2024/2025 年中国工业机器人产量分别同比提 升 14.2%/28.0%，2025 年产量达到 77 万台，创历史新高。 人形机器人风口将至，公司是人形领域谐波减速器的龙头。人形机 器人市场随着 AI 技术的进步和以特斯拉为首的科技巨头加码，有望 迎来快速爆发，人形机器人自由度有持续增长趋势，将带动谐波减 速器行业数倍增长的需求。以特斯拉 Optimus 为例，单台人形机器 人谐波减速器需求量为 14 台，后续有望提升到 20 个以上。国产厂商 具备较强的创新及降本能力，相对优势显著，有望充分受益人形机 器人市场爆发带来的产业机遇。公司在 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a target price of 21.04 RMB for the company, based on a 13x PE for 2027 [5]. Core Insights - The company has effectively integrated its forestry, pulp, and paper operations, demonstrating strong profitability across industry cycles. Its core advantages stem from cost advantages through integrated operations, differentiated products, and precise market control, maintaining a leading profitability level in the industry [3][15]. - The pulp supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve, providing a moderate recovery in paper prices. Domestic pulp production is nearing its peak, and limited new overseas capacity is anticipated, which will support pulp prices and consequently paper prices [3][30]. - The company is set to achieve significant capacity growth from 2025 to 2027, with 1.7 million tons of packaging paper and 470,000 tons of cultural paper expected to come online, ensuring a high degree of certainty in future earnings growth [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Leadership and Profitability - The company has maintained a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.20% in revenue and 12.71% in net profit from 2015 to 2024, showcasing stable growth [15]. - The company operates three major production bases, ensuring a balanced supply to both northern and southern markets, with a total pulp capacity of nearly 5 million tons and paper capacity exceeding 7 million tons [15]. 2. Pulp Supply-Demand Dynamics - The domestic pulp production capacity is projected to reach 36.05 million tons by 2025, reflecting a 67.67% increase from 2021, while the growth rate of pulp production capacity significantly outpaces that of paper production [30]. - The report anticipates that the pulp price will experience a moderate recovery due to reduced supply from international producers and increased demand from domestic paper manufacturers [30][32]. 3. Integrated Operations and Cost Advantages - The company plans to launch 1.1 million tons of self-produced pulp, enhancing its integrated operations and ensuring stable profitability in the short term [4][19]. - The company benefits from a 300 RMB/ton energy cost advantage through its self-supplied power and steam, further solidifying its competitive edge [4][19]. 4. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 471.22 billion, 473.10 billion, and 516.25 billion RMB, with corresponding net profits of 33.60 billion, 38.67 billion, and 45.24 billion RMB, indicating growth rates of 8.34%, 15.11%, and 16.97% respectively [5][9].

投资逻辑： 国产海风机组龙头，短中长三重逻辑支撑业绩进入向上通道。短 期维度，国内陆风重回通胀，我们不完全统计 2025 年各功率段陆 风机组不含塔筒中标均价同比提升超 10%，随着 2026-2027 年高价 订单交付占比提升，预计公司制造端业绩弹性有望持续释放。中期 维度，国内海风建设在经历三年调整后，需求景气度有望逐步回 暖，我们预计"十五五"阶段国内海风年平均装机有望从"十四五" 的 8GW 提升至 15-20GW，看好公司作为国内海风龙头充分受益。长 期维度，欧洲海风进入高速建设阶段，预计 2030 年后年均装机有 望提升至 15GW 以上，而当前欧洲本土海上大风机产能仅 4GW，叠 加欧洲开发商对项目降本的强烈诉求，预计公司凭借英国本土基 地实现欧洲海风市场突破，从而打开长期成长空间。 收购卫星能源系统研制商，太空光伏技术路线全面布局。2026 年 1 月 22 日，公司公告拟通过发行股份及支付现金的方式收购中山 德华芯片 100%的股权，并募集配套资金。德华芯片业务主要聚焦 于柔性空间太阳电池芯片、柔性太阳电池电路等产品，具备砷化镓 组件级供应能力，总经理为蓝箭航天前高级副总裁杨文奕。2025 ...

经济增长：补贴退潮，车市走弱 (1) 猪价涨势渐颓。1 月 27 日，猪肉平均批发价为 18.7 元/公斤，较 1 月 20 日上涨 1.0%。 (2) 农产品价格指数偏强运行。1 月 27 日，农产品批发价格指数较 1 月 20 日上涨 0.1%。分品种看，鸡蛋（上涨 4.7%）> 猪肉（上涨 1.0%）>羊肉（上涨 0.8%）>牛肉（上涨 0.2%）>水果 (上涨 0.1%）>蔬菜（下跌 0.7%）>鸡肉（下跌 1.3%）。 PPI：油价温和上涨 (1) 油价温和上涨。1 月 27 日，布伦特和 WTI 原油现货价报 69.5 和 62.4 美元/桶，较 1 月 20 日分别上涨 2.0%和上 涨 3.4%。 (2) 铜铝回升。1 月 27 日，LME3 月铜价和铝价较 1 月 20 日分别上涨 0.8%和上涨 1.3%。 (3) 国内商品指数环比转涨。1 月 27 日，南华工业品指数较 1 月 20 日上涨 2.1%；1 月 27 日，CRB 指数较 1 月 20 日 上涨 2.1%。 生产：电厂日耗超出去年同期 通货膨胀：猪价涨势渐颓 CPI：猪价涨势渐颓 风险提示 统计口径误差。数据统计大多为抽样， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.526-1.659 billion for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15%-25% [2]. - The company has faced short-term profit impacts due to impairment in tower crane assets but is expected to see accelerated profit release in 2026 as asset quality improves and domestic demand stabilizes [3]. - The overseas demand is showing signs of recovery, with significant growth in export revenues for loaders and excavators, which is anticipated to continue driving profit growth [3]. - The company is experiencing pressure on margins due to price competition in the domestic electric loader market, but the launch of new products is expected to enhance profitability [4]. - The company's "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for revenue of RMB 60 billion by 2030, with over 60% from overseas markets and a net profit margin of no less than 8% [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The company forecasts a net profit of RMB 1.526-1.659 billion for 2025, with a quarterly net profit of RMB 0.68-2.01 billion for Q4 2025, showing significant year-on-year growth [2]. Operational Analysis - The company has increased provisions for credit impairment losses to RMB 2.7 billion in Q3 2025 due to a sharp decline in the domestic tower crane industry, which has affected profit growth [3]. - Export revenues for loaders grew over 20% in H1 2025, and excavator sales increased by 22.1% year-on-year, indicating strong overseas demand [3]. - The company’s gross margin was impacted by price competition in the domestic market, but the introduction of the T-series loaders is expected to improve profitability [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 33.564 billion, RMB 37.973 billion, and RMB 43.695 billion, respectively, with net profits of RMB 1.601 billion, RMB 2.092 billion, and RMB 2.640 billion [5].

一问红利：2026 年是否会有超额？ 2025 年红利策略大幅跑输市场，最核心的原因在于市场找到了新的能够突破宏观趋势的成长性：以 AI 产业投资为代 表，以及景气度也开始逐步扩散到与 AI 强相关的"泛 AI"领域。所以市场的定价驱动力从 2022 年至 2024 年上半年 的股息率 d 逐步开始重新转向增长率 g。展望 2026 年，红利策略是否会有相较于全 A 的超额收益，核心判断还是在于 市场是否依旧以基本面的边际变化作为核心驱动力？基于我们年度策略《世界的中国》对于 2026 年的基本面展望， 在 AI 投资宏观风险较低、降息周期下全球制造业景气度向上的背景下，2026 年中国的企业盈利修复可能是股票市场 的核心驱动力，会有更多的行业景气度出现改善。在这种宏观背景下，我们认为投资者可能还是会更加关注基本面的 边际变化（增长率）而非股息率。所以 2026 年红利策略似乎很难获取超额收益。但这并不意味着红利策略不重要， 因为它依旧是很多投资者构建投资组合的压舱石和降低组合波动的重要工具：一方面，A 股权益资产内部红利资产的 估值水平最低，波动率也相对较低；另一方面，与主要城市二手住宅租金回报、10 年期 ...

Industry Trends - The EU's revised Cybersecurity Law is expected to maintain a shortage of storage chips until 2027, with improvements anticipated in 2028[12] - Storage chip prices are projected to rise by approximately 20% in Q2 2026, following significant increases in Q1 2026 (DRAM up 55-60%, NAND Flash up 33-38%) due to strong AI demand[13] - The global storage chip market is forecasted to reach $551.6 billion in 2026, a 134% year-on-year increase, and $842.7 billion in 2027, a 53% increase[13] Financial Performance - Intel's Q4 2025 revenue was $13.7 billion with a non-GAAP gross margin of 37.9%, but Q1 2026 revenue is expected to decline to between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion due to supply constraints[24] - OpenAI's annual revenue for 2025 has surpassed $20 billion, a significant increase from $6 billion in 2024, driven by expanded computing capabilities[15] - Anthropic's annual revenue has increased from approximately $4 billion in mid-2025 to over $9 billion by the end of 2025[16] Market Developments - Major companies like OpenAI, Apple, and ByteDance are actively developing AI applications, with OpenAI planning to test ads in ChatGPT and launch its first AI device in late 2026[18][19] - Alibaba is considering spinning off its chip design subsidiary, T-Head, into an independent company to enhance its competitiveness in the AI sector[29] - The Gemini API usage by Google has more than doubled to 85 billion calls, with enterprise subscriptions reaching 8 million, indicating strong growth in AI model applications[30]

其中价格区间因子衡量股票在日内不同价格区间成交的活跃程度，能体现出投资者对于股票未来走势的预期。该因子 展现出了较强的预测效果，今年以来表现比较稳定。价量背离因子主要衡量股票价格与成交量的相关性，一般而言相 关性越低，未来上涨的可能性越高。但该因子近几年表现一直不太稳定，多空净值曲线趋近走平，不过去年超额收益 处于历史较高水平。遗憾规避因子通过考察股票当天被投资者卖出后反弹的比例和程度，展现了较好的预测效果。该 因子样本外超额收益稳定，表明 A 股投资者的遗憾规避情绪依然会显著影响股价的预期收益。而斜率凸性因子则从投 资者耐心与供求关系弹性的角度出发，刻画订单簿的斜率和凸性对预期收益的影响。 我们将三类高频因子首先等权合成后构建出了高频"金"组合中证 1000 指数增强策略，该策略年化超额收益率 9.58%， 超额最大回撤为 6.53%。上周录得 0.68%的超额收益，本月以来超额收益为-1.74%，今年以来超额收益为-1.34%。 为考虑进一步增强策略的业绩表现，我们将高频因子与三个比较有效的基本面因子进行等权合成构建出了高频&基本 面共振组合中证 1000 指数增强策略，该策略在样本外超额收益稳定。上周录 ...

一问红利：2026 年是否会有超额？ 2025 年红利策略大幅跑输市场，最核心的原因在于市场找到了新的能够突破宏观趋势的成长性：以 AI 产业投资为代 表，以及景气度也开始逐步扩散到与 AI 强相关的"泛 AI"领域。所以市场的定价驱动力从 2022 年至 2024 年上半年 的股息率 d 逐步开始重新转向增长率 g。展望 2026 年，红利策略是否会有相较于全 A 的超额收益，核心判断还是在于 市场是否依旧以基本面的边际变化作为核心驱动力？基于我们年度策略《世界的中国》对于 2026 年的基本面展望， 在 AI 投资宏观风险较低、降息周期下全球制造业景气度向上的背景下，2026 年中国的企业盈利修复可能是股票市场 的核心驱动力，会有更多的行业景气度出现改善。在这种宏观背景下，我们认为投资者可能还是会更加关注基本面的 边际变化（增长率）而非股息率。所以 2026 年红利策略似乎很难获取超额收益。但这并不意味着红利策略不重要， 因为它依旧是很多投资者构建投资组合的压舱石和降低组合波动的重要工具：一方面，A 股权益资产内部红利资产的 估值水平最低，波动率也相对较低；另一方面，与主要城市二手住宅租金回报、10 年期 ...