证券研究报告 主动权益基金仓位回落至年内低点 —— 量化市场追踪周报（2025W22） 2025 年 6 月 2 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 于明明 金融工程与金融产品 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 吴彦锦 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523090002 联系电话：+86 18616819227 邮 箱：wuyanjin@cindasc.com 周君睿 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523110005 联系电话：+86 19821223545 邮 箱：zhoujunrui@cindasc.com 量化市场追踪周报(2025W22)：主动权益基金仓位 回落至年内低点 2025 年 6 月 2 日 主动权益基金仓位回落至年内低点：截至 2025/5/30，主动权益型基金的 平均仓位约为 85.98%。其中，普通股票型基金的平均仓位约为 89.13%（较 上周下降 0.52pct），偏股混合型基金的平均 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of May 30, 2025, the average position of active equity funds dropped to a low point this year [2]. - In the short - term, one should be cautious about the sustainability of the excess returns of micro - cap stocks and control the allocation risk of micro - cap style related assets [3]. - It is recommended to focus on high - quality targets with improved profitability and solid fundamentals [3]. - The service innovation of the public fund industry is expected to enhance its comprehensive competitiveness [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Review - From May 26 to May 30, 2025, the overall trading in the A - share market became dull, with the average daily trading volume falling to a relatively low level near one trillion yuan, and risk appetite declined [3][11]. - The previous strong Beizheng 50 index continued to lead the gains, but one should be cautious about the sustainability of the excess returns of micro - cap stocks [3][11]. - The net outflows of domestic Hong Kong - related ETFs have occurred in recent weeks, and the net buying strength of southbound funds has also weakened [3]. - The public fund industry is accelerating the optimization of products and services, and many fund companies have opened the conversion business between different shares of the same fund [3][12]. - The performance of major broad - based indexes was differentiated. The Beizheng 50 performed relatively strongly, while the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and CSI 300 all declined [12]. - The performance of primary industries was also differentiated. The automobile sector had the largest decline, while the top - performing industries included comprehensive finance, national defense and military industry, medicine, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and communication [15]. 2. Public Funds 2.1 Public Fund Position Calculation - As of May 30, 2025, the average position of active equity funds was about 85.98%. The average positions of common stock funds, partial - stock hybrid funds, and allocation funds decreased, and the average position of "fixed - income +" funds also decreased [2][20]. 2.2 Style Trends of Active Equity Products - As of May 30, 2025, the exposure of the mid - cap style of active partial - stock funds increased relatively. The positions of large - cap growth and small - cap value increased, while the positions of large - cap value, small - cap growth decreased [3][28]. 2.3 Industry Trends of Active Equity Products - From May 26 to May 30, 2025, the allocation ratios of active equity funds in industries such as food and beverage, machinery, and commercial retail increased, while the ratios in industries such as computer and electronics decreased [3][31]. 2.4 ETF Market Tracking - From May 26 to May 30, 2025, the funds of broad - based ETFs flowed back, exchange - traded credit bond ETFs continued to attract capital, and some medical theme ETFs had obvious profit - taking [33]. - The net inflow of broad - based ETFs was about 6.171 billion yuan, the net outflow of industry ETFs was about 121 million yuan, the net inflow of style and theme ETFs was 1.403 billion yuan, the net outflow of cross - border ETFs was about 2.049 billion yuan, the net inflow of bond ETFs was about 15.106 billion yuan, and the net outflow of commodity ETFs was 106 million yuan [33]. 2.5 Newly Established Funds - From May 26 to May 30, 2025, there were 30 newly established domestic funds, including 4 active equity funds. The total newly issued shares of active equity funds were about 1.735 billion shares, at the 78.4% quantile in the past year [38]. 3. Main/Active Fund Flows - From May 26 to May 30, 2025, the main and active funds had a net inflow into the banking sector and a net outflow from sectors such as electronics, computers, automobiles, and power equipment and new energy [5][51]. - In terms of individual stocks and industries, there were differences in the net inflow and outflow directions of main funds and active funds [5][51].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" as the industry index is expected to be in line with the benchmark [134]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the demand for inventory before the holiday is weak, leading to a decline in refining product prices [1]. - The Brent crude oil average price for the week ending May 30, 2025, was $64.47 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 1.07% [1][2]. - Domestic refining project price differentials have increased, with a domestic key refining project price differential of 2492.60 CNY/ton, up by 2.04% week-on-week [1][2]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - OPEC+ is discussing an increase in production for July, which is pressuring prices, while geopolitical tensions continue to create volatility in oil prices [1]. - As of May 30, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were $63.90 and $60.79 per barrel, respectively, showing a decline from the previous week [1][14]. - Domestic refined oil prices have slightly increased, while overseas refined oil prices have generally declined [1]. Chemical Sector - The chemical sector is experiencing weak cost support and supply-demand dynamics, leading to price declines across various products [1]. - Polyethylene and polypropylene prices have shown a downward trend, with average prices for LDPE, LLDPE, and HDPE at 9057.14, 7032.14, and 8014.29 CNY/ton, respectively [1][53]. - The market for EVA remains weak, with prices decreasing to an average of 11500.00 CNY/ton [1][65]. Polyester Sector - The PX price has slightly increased due to a rise in PTA demand, with the current PX CFR China main port average price at 6026.19 CNY/ton [1][86]. - MEG prices have decreased slightly, with the current average price at 4512.86 CNY/ton [1][89]. - The average price for PTA is currently 4909.29 CNY/ton, with an industry average profit margin of -132.88 CNY/ton [1][91]. Major Refining Companies - The stock performance of six major refining companies as of May 30, 2025, shows mixed results, with Rongsheng Petrochemical up by 0.11% and Dongfang Shenghong down by 4.82% over the past week [1][121]. - Over the past month, Rongsheng Petrochemical has increased by 5.98%, while Dongfang Shenghong has decreased by 2.75% [1][121].

IC、IM 基差为何持续低位？ [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 6 月 2 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_FirstAuthor] 于明明 金融工程与金融产品首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 证券研究报告 金工研究 [T金工ableReportType] 点评报告 于明明 金融工程与金融产品 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 崔诗笛 金融工程与金融产品 金融工程分析师 执业编号：S1500523080001 联系电话：+86 18516560686 邮 箱：cuishidi@cindasc.com 孙石 金融工程与金融产品 金融工程分析师 执业编号：S1500523080010 联系电话：+86 18817366228 邮 箱：sunshi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CIND ...

结构性行情中剩余期限 2 年以内转债性价比提升 —— 6 月转债投资策略与关注个券 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 06 月 02 日 [李一爽 Table_ First固定Author 收益]首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+86 18817583889 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com 张 弛 固定收益分析师 执业编号：S1500524090002 联系电话：+86 18817872149 邮 箱：zhangchi3@cindasc.com 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [T债券able_ReportType] 专题 [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益 ] 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+86 18817583889 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com 张 弛 固定收益分析师 执业编号：S1500524090002 联系电话：+86 18817872149 邮 箱：zhangchi3@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [11][12] - The coal market is expected to stabilize and gradually recover in price, supported by seasonal demand increases and a solid bottoming out of coal prices [11][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a short-term supply-demand balance and a long-term gap still present [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of June 1, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 613 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [28] - The price for main coking coal at Jingtang port is 1290 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton from the previous week [30] - International thermal coal prices show slight fluctuations, with Newcastle coal at 67.2 USD/ton, up 0.2 USD/ton week-on-week [28] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 96.1%, down 1 percentage point week-on-week [11][12] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 35.7 thousand tons/day (-11.29%) [11][12] - The high furnace operating rate is reported at 83.87%, an increase of 0.18 percentage points [11][12] Inventory Situation - Coal inventories in coastal provinces increased by 12.7 thousand tons, with daily consumption down by 16.5 thousand tons/day [11][12] - The inventory of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port is reported at 675 thousand tons, down 7.5% week-on-week [6] Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [12] - Attention should also be given to companies with significant price elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and Electric Power Energy [12] - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, making it a compelling investment opportunity [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Positive" for the utility sector, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a projected 2.4% year-on-year growth in global LNG trade volume for 2024, reaching 411.24 million tons, connecting 22 export markets and 48 import markets [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing market reforms in the electricity sector, which are expected to lead to improved profitability and value reassessment for power companies [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of May 30, the utility sector declined by 0.2%, underperforming the broader market, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.1% [12]. - The electricity sector specifically saw a decrease of 0.15%, while the gas sector fell by 0.44% [15]. Electricity Industry Data Tracking - The report notes that the Qinhuangdao port's coal price (Q5500) remained stable at 613 CNY/ton as of May 30, while the coal inventory at the port decreased by 550,000 tons to 6.75 million tons [23][30]. - The average daily coal consumption in inland provinces dropped by 357,000 tons to 2.806 million tons, with available days increasing to 29.8 days [32]. Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking - The report indicates that the LNG ex-factory price index in Shanghai was 4,419 CNY/ton as of May 30, reflecting a 1.01% year-on-year increase but a 1.12% week-on-week decrease [58]. - The report also highlights that the EU's natural gas supply for week 21 of 2025 was 5.82 billion cubic meters, a 3.1% year-on-year increase [61]. Key Industry News - The report discusses the release of the "136 Document" by the Inner Mongolia Development and Reform Commission, which outlines a market-driven pricing mechanism for renewable energy [5]. - The report mentions that the EU's natural gas consumption for the first 20 weeks of 2025 is estimated at 158.81 billion cubic meters, a 9.2% year-on-year increase [5]. Investment Recommendations - For the electricity sector, the report suggests focusing on leading coal power companies such as Guodian Power and Huaneng International, as well as regional leaders in tight supply areas [5]. - In the natural gas sector, companies with low-cost long-term gas sources and receiving station assets are recommended for potential profit growth [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The demand for new energy sanitation vehicles is strong, with a significant increase in sales and a shift towards electric vehicles in the sanitation sector. The market for sanitation vehicles saw a year-on-year sales increase of 3.5%, with new energy sanitation vehicles experiencing a remarkable growth of 64% in Q1 2025, achieving a penetration rate of 15% [12][13] - The report highlights the acceleration of smart sanitation equipment promotion driven by policy support, particularly the encouragement of intelligent and unmanned sanitation vehicles [13][14] Market Performance - As of May 30, the environmental protection sector rose by 3.42%, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like solid waste sanitation increasing by 19.04% [4][6] - The water governance sector increased by 2.32%, while the air governance sector saw a slight decline of 0.29% [6] Industry Dynamics - Recent policies from the central government aim to enhance the market-oriented allocation of environmental resources, with a focus on carbon trading and pollution rights by 2027 [22][23] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a technical guidance catalog for pollution prevention, detailing 15 encouraged technologies to promote advancements in ecological facilities [23] Company Developments - Yingfeng Environment has diversified its "Bee" robot product line, achieving significant operational efficiency and commercial success, with a revenue increase of 14.41% in its smart service segment [14] - Qiaoyin Co. is collaborating with a national innovation center to advance humanoid robot technology for urban services [15] - Yutong Heavy Industry has developed L4 level autonomous sanitation vehicles, currently operating in Guangzhou, marking a significant milestone in the industry [17] - Yuhua Tian is expanding its product offerings in the field of smart sanitation, including aerial inspection drones and unmanned garbage compression vehicles [18] - Fulongma is actively exploring unmanned sanitation operations, with its SD15 autonomous cleaning robot deployed in various scenarios [21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the environmental quality and industrial green development goals set by the "14th Five-Year Plan" will sustain high demand for energy conservation and resource recycling [30] - Key recommendations include companies like Hanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, with additional attention to Wangneng Environment and Junxin Co. [30]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The demand for new energy sanitation vehicles is strong, with a significant increase in sales and a shift towards electric sanitation vehicles, indicating a structural recovery in the market [12][13] - The report highlights the acceleration of smart sanitation equipment promotion driven by policy support, with major companies making significant advancements in technology and product deployment [14][17][21] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of May 30, the environmental protection sector rose by 3.42%, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like solid waste sanitation increasing by 19.04% [4][6] Industry Dynamics - Recent policies from the central government aim to enhance the market-oriented allocation of environmental resources, with a focus on carbon trading and pollution control measures by 2027 [22][23] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a technical guidance catalog for pollution prevention, detailing encouraged and low-efficiency technologies [23] Company Announcements - Major companies in the sanitation sector are advancing their smart sanitation initiatives, with notable products like the "Bee" series robots from Yingfeng Environment achieving significant operational efficiency and commercial success [14] - Qiaoyin Co. is collaborating with national centers to innovate in humanoid robotics for sanitation, enhancing their product offerings [15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the environmental quality and industrial green development goals set by the "14th Five-Year Plan" will sustain high demand for energy-saving and recycling industries, with specific recommendations for companies like Hanlan Environment and Xingrong Environment [30]

- The macro model uses indicators such as "10-year US Treasury yield," "domestic M2 year-on-year growth," and "domestic M1-M2 scissors difference" to predict excess returns of the CSI Dividend Index relative to Wind All A Index. The model has achieved an annualized excess return of 8.05% since 2010, but the excess return for this year is -6.69%[8][10][46] - The valuation model employs a weighted factor adjustment for the CSI Dividend Index's PETTM valuation to align with its dividend yield-weighted characteristics. The absolute PETTM valuation regression formula is $ y = -0.2807x + 0.2635 $, where $ x $ represents the three-year absolute PETTM percentile, and $ y $ represents the future one-year absolute return. The relative PETTM valuation regression formula is $ y = -0.1223x + 0.0983 $, where $ x $ represents the three-year relative PETTM percentile, and $ y $ represents the future one-year excess return[18][21][30] - The price-volume model calculates the weight of CSI Dividend Index constituents above the 120-day moving average and their correlation with future one-year absolute returns. The regression formula is $ y = -0.2346x + 0.2116 $, where $ x $ represents the weight above the 120-day moving average, and $ y $ represents the future one-year absolute return. For absolute trading volume, the regression formula is $ y = -0.3823x + 0.3435 $, where $ x $ represents the three-year trading volume percentile, and $ y $ represents the future one-year absolute return. For relative trading volume, the regression formula is $ y = -0.0163x + 0.0092 $, where $ x $ represents the three-year relative trading volume percentile, and $ y $ represents the future one-month excess return[24][31][33] - The fund exposure model standardizes quarterly dividend yield factors and calculates the dividend style exposure of equity-focused public funds based on their top 10 holdings. The model shows that the dividend style exposure for Q1 2025 is 0.37, a decrease from 0.45 in Q4 2024[37][38][46] - The "Dividend 50 Optimal Portfolio" combines high dividend yield with a linear multi-factor model to enhance capital gains. It applies Barra style factor constraints to control portfolio style exposure and incorporates a three-dimensional dividend excess timing model for further optimization. The portfolio's absolute return over the past year is 5.69%, with an excess return of 3.72%[46][47][48] Model Testing Results - Macro model: Annualized excess return since 2010 is 8.05%; excess return for this year is -6.69%[8][10][46] - Valuation model: Absolute PETTM regression predicts future one-year absolute return of -1.42%; relative PETTM regression predicts future one-year excess return of 0.00%[18][21][30] - Price-volume model: Weight above 120-day moving average regression predicts future one-year absolute return of 7.35%; absolute trading volume regression predicts future one-year absolute return of 13.78%; relative trading volume regression predicts future one-month excess return of 0.80%[24][31][33] - Fund exposure model: Dividend style exposure for Q1 2025 is 0.37, down from 0.45 in Q4 2024[37][38][46] - Dividend 50 Optimal Portfolio: Absolute return over the past year is 5.69%; excess return is 3.72%[46][47][48]