Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The coal market is expected to maintain a slightly tight supply-demand balance, with coal prices trending upwards, potentially exceeding early-year highs [11][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a confirmed price bottom and an upward trend in the price center [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Price Trends - As of October 18, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 740 CNY/ton, up 34 CNY/ton week-on-week [11][30] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1690 CNY/ton, an increase of 30 CNY/ton [11][32] - International thermal coal prices have also seen increases, with Newcastle thermal coal at 72.8 USD/ton, up 1.8 USD/ton [11][30] 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is 91.7%, down 0.1 percentage points week-on-week, while coking coal mine utilization increased to 87.33%, up 5.4 percentage points [11][47] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 31.20 thousand tons/day, while coastal provinces saw an increase of 1.40 thousand tons/day [11][48] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as those with significant upside potential like Yanzhou Coal and Electric Power Energy [12] - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, with a favorable long-term outlook [12] 4. Market Performance - The coal sector has outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 4.27%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.22% [14][17] - The thermal coal segment rose by 6.55%, indicating strong market interest [17]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as indicated by the report's outlook on the refining sector [153]. Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in demand for winter thermal fabrics, leading to a slight improvement in long filament profitability [2]. - The Brent crude oil average price for the week ending October 17, 2025, was $62.37 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 4.26% from the previous week [2]. - The domestic key refining project price difference was 2425.56 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 21.37 CNY/ton (+0.89%) [3]. - The report notes that the international oil price experienced fluctuations due to trade tensions and economic concerns, impacting the overall market sentiment [14]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The report discusses the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions on oil prices, with Brent and WTI prices at $61.29 and $57.54 per barrel respectively, showing declines of $1.44 and $1.36 from the previous week [14]. - Domestic refined oil prices have slightly decreased, but the price differentials have improved [14]. - The report tracks the stock performance of six major refining companies, with notable declines in stock prices for several companies over the past week [140]. Chemical Sector - The chemical products in the petrochemical downstream faced price declines due to weak cost support, with polyolefin prices showing slight fluctuations [2]. - EVA demand remains weak, leading to price adjustments and a slight narrowing of price differentials [2]. - The report indicates that pure benzene prices have slightly decreased, but price differentials have improved [2]. Polyester & Nylon Sector - The report notes a decrease in polyester chain product prices due to weak cost support, with PX, MEG, and PTA prices all declining [89]. - The demand for polyester long filaments has increased due to colder temperatures in northern regions, although prices have slightly decreased [110]. - Nylon fiber prices have also shown weakness, with average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY all declining [120].

Core Conclusions - In a bull market, the style is relatively stable in the early and late stages, but it tends to fluctuate in the mid-stage. Non-mainstream sectors may lead in the later stages of the bull market, influenced significantly by capital flow rather than performance realization, typically lasting 1-2 quarters [2][10][28] Historical Cases - During the 2005-2007 financial cycle bull market, from January to May 2007, small-cap growth stocks surged, with non-mainstream sectors like textiles, environmental protection, and pharmaceuticals leading the gains. This was attributed to accelerated capital inflow and a shift in market focus towards previously underperforming sectors [3][11][14] - In the 2013-2015 TMT bull market, the fourth quarter of 2014 saw large-cap value stocks outperform, with non-bank financials, construction, banking, and steel sectors leading. This shift was driven by significant inflows of retail capital and a change in focus from performance to valuation [19][21][27] Market Dynamics - Non-mainstream sectors tend to lead in the later stages of a bull market due to increased capital inflow, as mainstream sectors often reach high valuation levels, leading investors to seek undervalued sectors with high safety margins [3][28] - The performance of non-mainstream sectors may be supported by earnings growth, as seen in the textiles sector in early 2007, but there can also be instances where performance realization remains weak despite leading gains, such as in the construction and steel sectors in late 2014 [30][28] Current Market Outlook - The report suggests that the current market may be entering a main upward trend, with potential for style switching towards low-value sectors, particularly in banking and non-bank financials, as well as in low-valued electric equipment and cyclical stocks [37][38] - The financial sector is highlighted as having low overall valuations, with potential for rebound due to style switching and regulatory support for long-term capital inflows [39]

9 月城投债净偿还同比收窄 新增 35 家主体声明市场化 —— 2025 年 9 月城投债发行审批月度跟踪 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 10 月 19 日 | [李一爽 Table_FirstA 固定uthor 收益]首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com | | 朱金保 固定收益分析师 | | 执业编号：S1500524080002 | | 联系电话：+86 15850662789 | | 邮 箱：zhujinbao@cindasc.com | Xyue 证券研究报告 债券研究 [T债券able_ReportType] 专题 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 朱金保 固定收益分析师 执业编 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - On October 13, NVIDIA released the white paper "800 VDC Architecture for Next-Generation AI Infrastructure," outlining its vision for "AI factories," which includes the new generation of open architecture rack servers and an expanded NVIDIA NVLink Fusion ecosystem [2][3] - The introduction of the 800VDC power supply system in NVIDIA's Vera Rubin GPU platform allows for a significant increase in power capacity from 200KW to 1MW per cabinet, indicating a clear trend towards HVDC technology [3] - The demand for high-end soft magnetic materials is expected to rise due to the higher voltage and current requirements of the 800V architecture, necessitating advancements in material performance [3] - The adoption of hollow-core fiber optics by cloud computing giants enhances data center interconnectivity, reducing latency over long distances, which is crucial for real-time data synchronization and AI model training [3] Summary by Sections HVDC Technology - The transition from UPS to medium-voltage rectifiers and eventually to SST solutions is outlined, with medium-voltage direct current (MVDC) already validated in industrial applications, suggesting low implementation difficulty [3] - SST solutions are projected to be more efficient, potentially saving about 50% in space, thus providing more operational flexibility for future data center management [3] Soft Magnetic Materials - The 800V architecture's requirements for magnetic components necessitate higher performance materials, with ferrite materials being particularly suitable [3] Hollow-Core Fiber Optics - Hollow-core fiber optics are noted for their advantages in speed, signal loss reduction, and signal quality improvement, which are critical for enhancing data center operations [3] Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies to watch include: 1. HVDC: Zhongheng Electric, Igor, Sunshine Power, Jinpan Technology, Heweih Electric 2. Soft Magnetic Materials: Hengdian Dongci, Jinli Permanent Magnet 3. Hollow-Core Fiber: Zhongtian Technology, Hengtong Optic-Electric [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the environmental sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The environmental sector outperformed the broader market, with a decline of 1.11% compared to a 1.47% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [3][10] - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) decided to postpone the discussion on the net-zero framework until 2026, maintaining significant uncertainty regarding the timeline and requirements for investment and compliance [3][31] - The report highlights the disparity in profitability among residential heating companies, influenced by cost control and local pricing policies [3][16] Market Performance - As of October 17, the environmental sector index fell by 1.11%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which decreased by 1.47% [10] - The top-performing sub-sectors included waste incineration, which saw a slight increase of 0.17%, while air treatment and sanitation sectors experienced declines of 5.00% and 4.32%, respectively [11][3] Industry Dynamics - The IMO's recent meeting resulted in a vote of 57 in favor, 49 against, and 21 abstentions, leading to a 12-month delay in the net-zero framework's approval [3][31] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment in China is seeking public opinion on methodologies for greenhouse gas voluntary reduction projects, including renewable energy hydrogen production [3][32] - The report discusses the impact of coal prices on heating companies' profitability, noting a negative correlation between heating sector margins and coal prices since 2010 [3][18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the "14th Five-Year Plan" will continue to support high demand for energy conservation and environmental protection, with a focus on resource recycling [3][4] - Recommended stocks include Hanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, with attention to companies like Wangneng Environment and Junxin Co. [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the light industry manufacturing sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of valuation shifts in Hong Kong's new consumption sector while advocating for a stable investment in traditional leading companies [2] - The paper discusses various segments within the light industry, including paper manufacturing, exports, new tobacco products, smart glasses, gold and jewelry, two-wheeled vehicles, cross-border e-commerce, pet products, IP retail, and maternal and child products, highlighting growth opportunities and market dynamics [2][3][4][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Paper Manufacturing - UPM announced a two-week maintenance shutdown at its Fray Bentos pulp mill, which is expected to lead to a slight increase in pulp prices in Q4. The report anticipates a moderate recovery in cultural paper prices due to limited new capacity and upcoming publishing tenders [2][3] Exports - The report notes that Yi Yi plans to increase its stake in the "Gao Ye Jia" brand, which is expected to contribute significantly to profits by 2026. Additionally, a recent anti-dumping investigation in Canada may benefit compliant leading companies [2][3] New Tobacco Products - Smoore International reported Q3 revenue of 4.196 billion yuan, reflecting a 27.5% quarter-on-quarter increase. The company is expanding its presence in Europe with its HILO brand [2][3] Smart Glasses - Yingmu launched its first multi-SKU smart glasses, addressing user pain points with innovative designs and improved comfort [3] Gold and Jewelry - Lao Pu Gold and Chow Tai Fook are actively engaging in promotional activities, with Lao Pu announcing a price adjustment on October 26. The report expects a boost in sales due to seasonal demand and rising gold prices [3][4] Two-Wheeled Vehicles - Dahon's sales channels are performing well, with significant growth in both offline and online sales. The company is expanding its product range and enhancing its supply chain [3][4] Cross-Border E-Commerce - Karote is adjusting its strategy to mitigate the impact of US-China tariffs, focusing on product diversification and market expansion in the US and Japan [3][4] Pet Products - Zhongchong reported a 15.9% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q3, driven by strong performance in its self-owned brands and overseas business [4] IP Retail - Pop Mart is deepening its long-term IP strategy, while Miniso is accelerating its fashion crossover initiatives to enhance brand value [4][5] Maternal and Child Products - The report highlights the growth of the toy segment within maternal and child retail, driven by innovative store models and IP collaborations [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the recent release of mechanism electricity prices for new projects in Xinjiang and Gansu, with solar power priced at 0.235 yuan/kWh and wind power at 0.252 yuan/kWh [4] - The report indicates that the power sector is expected to see profit improvement and value reassessment following multiple rounds of supply-demand tensions in the electricity market [4] - The ongoing market reforms in electricity pricing are anticipated to lead to a gradual increase in electricity prices, benefiting power operators [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of October 17, the utility sector declined by 0.7%, outperforming the broader market, which saw a 2.2% drop [11] - The electricity sector specifically saw a decrease of 0.66%, while the gas sector fell by 0.99% [13] Electricity Industry Data Tracking - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (Q5500) increased by 34 yuan/ton week-on-week, reaching 740 yuan/ton as of October 17 [20] - Coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 960,000 tons week-on-week, totaling 5.45 million tons [25] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces was 3.107 million tons, down 312,000 tons/day from the previous week [28] Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking - The LNG ex-factory price index in Shanghai was 4,013 yuan/ton, down 20.19% year-on-year and 0.32% week-on-week [51] - The EU's natural gas supply increased by 8.8% year-on-year, reaching 6.07 billion cubic meters in week 41 of 2025 [58] Key Industry News - The mechanism electricity prices for solar and wind projects in Xinjiang were announced, with a total of 67 projects selected [4] - The release of the "Regulations on Fair and Open Supervision of Oil and Gas Pipeline Facilities" marks a significant step in China's oil and gas market reform [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on national coal power leaders such as Guodian Power, Huaneng International, and Huadian International, as well as regional leaders in tight supply areas [4] - For natural gas, companies with low-cost long-term gas sources and receiving station assets are expected to benefit from market conditions [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has faced a decline of 2.62% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel down 4.47% and long products down 2.47% [10] - Despite current challenges, including supply-demand imbalances and declining profits, the implementation of "stability growth" policies is expected to support steel demand, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [3][10] - The report suggests that the steel industry is likely to maintain a stable supply-demand situation, with potential for value recovery in undervalued companies, especially those with high gross margins and strong cost control [3] Supply Situation - As of October 17, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces in sample steel companies is 90.3%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points week-on-week [24] - The average daily pig iron output is 2.4095 million tons, down 0.59 tons week-on-week but up 78,700 tons year-on-year [24] - The total output of five major steel products is 7.489 million tons, a decrease of 45,200 tons week-on-week [24] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products reached 8.754 million tons as of October 17, an increase of 123,980 tons week-on-week, representing a 16.50% rise [33] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 97,000 tons, down 1.24 tons week-on-week [33] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products is 11.258 million tons, a decrease of 23,200 tons week-on-week, but an increase of 28.51% year-on-year [41] - Factory inventory of five major steel products is 4.564 million tons, down 161,400 tons week-on-week [41] Steel Prices & Profits - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,415.7 yuan/ton, down 44.57 yuan/ton week-on-week, and down 11.93% year-on-year [47] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is -66 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan/ton week-on-week [55] - The profit for electric arc furnace construction steel is -146 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton week-on-week [55] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 781 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton week-on-week [69] - The price of coking coal at the port is 1,690 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week-on-week [69] - The average profit for independent coking enterprises is -13 yuan/ton, down 22% week-on-week [69] Investment Suggestions - The report recommends focusing on regional leading companies with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as those with strong growth potential and cost control capabilities [3]

Group 1: Report's Overall Information - Report Title: 3Y within General Credit Bonds and 3 - 5Y Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds Spread Continues to Compress - Credit Spread Weekly Tracking 20251018 [1] - Report Date: October 18, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Special Report [2] Group 2: Report's Core Views - Interest rates are oscillating, and credit bonds continue to recover. The spreads of 1Y medium - low grade and 3Y medium - high grade bonds have significantly compressed. Credit spreads have generally converged, with short - duration spreads having a larger convergence amplitude. [2][5] - Urban investment bond spreads have generally declined by 4 - 5BP, with spreads of different external ratings and administrative levels all showing a downward trend. [2][9] - Most industrial bond spreads have declined, but the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds have still increased. The spreads of central and state - owned enterprise real estate bonds have declined, while those of mixed - ownership and private real estate bonds have increased. The spreads of coal, steel, and chemical bonds have mostly declined. [2][20] - The yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have all declined this week, and the spreads of 3 - 5Y bonds have continued to recover, with high - grade varieties performing better. [2][31] - The excess spread of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds has increased, while the excess spread of 5Y urban investment bonds has decreased. [2][34] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Interest rates oscillate, and credit bonds continue to recover, with the spreads of 1Y medium - low grade and 3Y medium - high grade bonds significantly compressing - Interest rate bonds have maintained an oscillating pattern. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, and 7Y China Development Bank bonds have increased by 1BP, 2BP, 1BP, and 2BP respectively compared to last week, while the yield of 10Y bonds has decreased by 1BP. [2][5] - Most credit bond yields have declined, and credit spreads have significantly converged. Short - duration credit spreads have a larger convergence amplitude. [2][5] - In terms of rating spreads, the spreads of different grades and terms have shown different changes. In terms of term spreads, the spreads of different grades and terms have also shown different trends. [5] II. Urban investment bond spreads have generally declined by 4 - 5BP - The credit spreads of external rating AAA platforms have generally declined by 4BP compared to last week, while those of AA+ and AA have both declined by 5BP. Spreads of platforms in different regions have different degrees of decline. [2][9] - In terms of administrative levels, the credit spreads of provincial platforms have generally declined by 4BP, while those of municipal and district - county platforms have both declined by 5BP. Spreads of platforms in different regions have different degrees of decline. [2][17] III. Most industrial bond spreads have declined, but the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds have still increased - The spreads of central and state - owned enterprise real estate bonds have declined by 4BP, while those of mixed - ownership real estate bonds have increased by 46BP, and those of private real estate bonds have increased by 1BP. The spreads of some real estate companies have different degrees of change. [2][20] - The spreads of all grades of coal bonds have declined by 4BP; the spreads of AAA steel bonds have declined by 4BP, and those of AA+ have declined by 5BP; the spreads of AAA chemical bonds have declined by 4BP, and those of AA+ have declined by 5BP. The spreads of some companies have different degrees of decline. [2][20] IV. The spreads of 3 - 5Y Tier 2 and perpetual bonds continue to recover - The yields of 1Y Tier 2 capital bonds of all grades have declined by 1BP, and perpetual bonds have remained roughly flat, with credit spreads declining by 2 - 3BP. [2][31] - The yields of 3Y Tier 2 capital bonds of all grades have declined by 3 - 4BP, and the yields of perpetual bonds have declined by 2 - 3BP, with spreads compressing by 5 - 7BP. [2][31] - The yields of 5Y Tier 2 capital bonds of all grades have declined by 2 - 3BP, and the yields of all grades of perpetual bonds have declined by 3 - 5BP, with spreads declining by 3 - 6BP. [2][31] V. The excess spread of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds has increased, while the excess spread of 5Y urban investment bonds has decreased - The excess spread of industrial AAA 3Y perpetual bonds has increased by 0.99BP compared to last week to 15.51BP, at the 41.31% quantile since 2015. The excess spread of industrial 5Y perpetual bonds has remained flat compared to last week at 12.39BP, at the 25.90% quantile since 2015. [2][34] - The excess spread of urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bonds has increased by 0.15BP to 4.97BP, at the 3.01% quantile. The excess spread of urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bonds has declined by 3.39BP to 11.08BP, at the 16.73% quantile. [2][34] VI. Credit spread database compilation instructions - The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank Tier 2 and perpetual bond spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - short - term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bond data, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015. The credit spreads related to urban investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by Cinda Securities R & D Center, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015. [39] - The calculation methods for various spreads and the sample selection criteria for industrial and urban investment bonds are provided. [41]