新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-19 现货成交仍相对清淡 铜价高位震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-12-18，沪铜主力合约开于 92830元/吨，收于 92600元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.24%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 92600元/吨，收于 92870 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.29%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货对次月2601合约报价贴水200至贴水80元/吨，均价贴水140元/吨，较前一日 上涨10元。现货价格区间为92100-92380元/吨。主力2601合约早间波动于92300-92480元，跨月价差在C120至C90 之间。早间持货商报价偏高但成交稀少，多数企业年末资金压力较大，且预期2601-2602合约价差可能扩大。早盘 平水铜报贴水140元/吨，好铜报贴水100元/吨；随后第二节迅速走弱，平水铜低至贴水200元，好铜报贴水120元/ 吨。今日，现货市场流动性预计仍偏弱，在卖方积极出货压力下，升水或继续小幅承压下行。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，通胀方面，美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以来最慢增速，低 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Go long on the gold-silver ratio on dips [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The cooling inflation risk in the US strengthens the expectation of monetary easing. The market risk sentiment has increased, and the expectation of loose future monetary policy may slightly boost the demand for gold investment. Gold prices are expected to be in a slightly bullish oscillation pattern, while silver prices are expected to remain in a short - term oscillation pattern [1][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Inflation: In November, the US core CPI rose 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest since early 2021, lower than the expected 3%. The overall CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1%. However, the reliability of this inflation report is questioned due to data collection interference [1]. - Fed: US President Trump said the nominee for the next Fed chair will be announced soon, and the candidate supports "substantial" interest rate cuts [1]. - Employment: Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 13,000 to 224,000, slightly lower than expected. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week increased by 67,000 to 1.897 million, lower than the expected 1.93 million [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On December 18, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 977.00 yuan/gram and closed at 980.50 yuan/gram, a 0.08% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 980.20 yuan/gram, a 0.03% decline from the afternoon close [2]. - On December 18, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 15,447.00 yuan/kg and closed at 15,521.00 yuan/kg, a 0.06% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,571,738 lots, and the open interest was 363,402 lots. The night session closed at 15,228 yuan/kg, an 1.89% decline from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 18, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.12%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.66%, a +2.5 BP change from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On December 18, 2025, in the Au2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 522 lots, and the short positions decreased by 879 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 318,388 lots, a 9.26% decrease from the previous trading day [4]. - In the Ag2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 16,620 lots, and the short positions decreased by 14,086 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 2,736,170 lots, a 4.76% decrease from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,052.54 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,018 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On December 18, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 9.56 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 1,308.48 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 63.17, a 0.02% change from the previous trading day, and the foreign - market gold - silver ratio was 65.43, a 3.64% decline from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On December 18, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 42,672 kg, a 14.24% decrease from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 900,984 kg, a 31.79% decrease from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 89,940 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold: Due to the increasing market risk sentiment and the expected loose monetary policy, gold investment demand may increase slightly. The Au2602 contract is expected to oscillate between 960 yuan/gram and 990 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The silver price has slightly declined and may face profit - taking pressure after reaching a new high. Benefiting from the easing expectation, the Ag2602 contract is expected to oscillate between 14,800 yuan/kg and 15,800 yuan/kg [8].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is cautiously bearish [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's interest rate meeting, most non - ferrous metals rose, but some are expected to fall after delivery [4] - The lead market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the downstream restocking period before the Spring Festival is still early [4] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On December 19, 2024, the LME lead spot premium was -$31.73/ton [1] - The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,700 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] - SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -50 yuan/ton to 50.00 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong lead spot price was unchanged at 16,950 yuan/ton; SMM Henan lead spot price changed by -75 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton; SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton [1] - The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells all decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton, 9,525 yuan/ton, and 9,975 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On December 19, 2024, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,795 yuan/ton, closed at 16,730 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2] - The trading volume was 28,827 lots, a decrease of 11,102 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 43,709 lots, a decrease of 3,629 lots from the previous day [2] - During the day, the price fluctuated, with a high of 16,810 yuan/ton and a low of 16,660 yuan/ton [2] - In the night session, the main contract opened at 16,800 yuan/ton, closed at 16,795 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On December 19, 2024, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 48,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the same period last week [3] - As of December 18, the LME lead inventory was 234,700 tons, unchanged from the previous day [3] Strategy - Current operations should focus on selling hedges at high prices, with the selling range between 17,000 - 17,100 yuan/ton [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, neutral - bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, neutral - bearish [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil price has shown signs of stabilizing in the past two days after continuous decline, but the expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed. The progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks may negatively affect oil prices, and the crude oil end will continue to suppress the unilateral prices of FU and LU. The current fundamentals of the fuel oil market have both long and short factors with limited overall contradictions [2]. - The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil are average, but the crack spread has shown signs of stabilizing after a significant correction. In addition to the support from refinery demand, Russia's exports declined again in December. The estimated shipment volume of high - sulfur fuel oil in Russia in December is 1.72 million tons, a decrease of 680,000 tons compared with the previous month. The supply of Russian refineries has been continuously disrupted by drone attacks in Ukraine [2]. - The overall driving force of the low - sulfur fuel oil market is limited. Due to the dynamic changes of the devices, there is room for local supply to increase. However, the shipment volumes of Kuwait and Nigeria in December have not increased significantly for the time being, and the bunker fuel terminal demand has been boosted at the end of the year. The bunker fuel sales volume in Singapore increased by 8% month - on - month in November. Coupled with the diversion of components by gasoline and diesel, the market pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is currently limited [2]. 3. Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 2.01% at 2,429 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.59% at 2,931 yuan/ton [1] 4. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, neutral - bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, neutral - bearish [3] - Cross - variety: No strategy [3] - Cross - period: No strategy [3] - Spot - futures: No strategy [3] - Options: No strategy [3]

铝合金价格方面：2025-12-18保太民用生铝采购价格16500元/吨，机械生铝采购价格16800元/吨，价格环比昨 日变化-100元/吨。ADC12保太报价21100元/吨，价格环比昨日变化0元/吨。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-19 消费存韧性，现货贴水受贸易行为承压 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21730元/吨，较上一交易日变化-20元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-140元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-30元/吨；中原A00铝价21620元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-60元/吨至-250元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21650元/吨，较上一交易日变化10元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-5元/吨至-220元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-18日沪铝主力合约开于21970元/吨，收于21955元/吨，较上一交易日变化55元/吨，最 高价达22100元/吨，最低价达到21880元/吨。全天交易日成交188444手，全天交易日持仓294165手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-18，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存57.8万吨，较上一期变化-1.8万吨，仓单库存76212 吨 ...

流动性日报 | 2025-12-19 市场流动性概况 2025-12-18，股指板块成交7791.36亿元，较上一交易日变动-21.56%；持仓金额13588.05亿元，较上一交易日变动 -4.22%；成交持仓比为57.18%。 国债板块成交3634.69亿元，较上一交易日变动+5.04%；持仓金额7495.56亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.86%；成交持 仓比为48.60%。 基本金属板块成交6590.57亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.35%；持仓金额6869.83亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.46%；成 交持仓比为98.83%。 贵金属板块成交9463.92亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.42%；持仓金额5248.86亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.22%；成交 持仓比为269.59%。 能源化工板块成交4392.21亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.11%；持仓金额4373.34亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.41%；成 交持仓比为91.72%。 农产品板块成交2781.95亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.87%；持仓金额5866.48亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.59%；成交 持仓比为44.71%。 黑色建材板块成交3076.17 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-19 市场热情有所平复，多晶硅震荡回落 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-12-18，工业硅期货主力合约2605开于8570元/吨，最后收于8645元/吨，较前一日结算变化（135）元/吨，变 化（1.59）%。截止收盘，2601主力合约持仓207780手，2025-12-17仓单总数为8815手，较前一日变化0手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9100-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8900（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8900（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。本周期货价格震荡偏强修复，但部分硅企报价出货意向仍 不强烈，下游用户以消化低价库存为主，市场成交量较上周转淡。供应端北方部分硅企有减产意向，目前减产尚 未落地开工率保持稳定，关注后续开工变化。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13500-13700（0）元/吨。SMM报道，有机硅周度排产较上周小幅波动， 12月上旬单体厂陆续有生产降幅，排产较 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations. The market turned to trade the "broad fiscal - supply surge" logic after the central bank's media mentioned the issuance expectations of larger - scale special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds. Global trade uncertainties increase the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. In the short term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.70%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of 0.10% and a year - on - year change of - 2.20% [9] - Social financing scale is 440.07 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.35 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.54%. M2 year - on - year is 8.00%, with a decrease of 0.20% and a decline rate of 2.44%. Manufacturing PMI is 49.20%, with an increase of 0.20% and a growth rate of 0.41% [10] - The US dollar index is 98.44, with a month - on - month increase of 0.04 and a growth rate of 0.04%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.0361, with a decrease of 0.003 and a decline rate of 0.04%. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, with no change and a decline rate of 0.14%. DR007 is 1.44, with no change and a decline rate of 0.21%. R007 is 1.51, with no change and a decline rate of 0.31%. The yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) 3M is 1.61, with a decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of 1.00%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with no change and a decline rate of 1.00% [10] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On December 18, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL are 102.44 yuan, 105.85 yuan, 108.01 yuan, and 112.25 yuan respectively, with daily price changes of 0.01%, 0.02%, 0.00%, and 0.23% respectively. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL are - 0.028 yuan, - 0.059 yuan, 0.000 yuan, and - 0.469 yuan respectively [3] 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - From January to October 2025, the general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the general public budget expenditure increased by only 2% year - on - year. In November, the overall financial data was weak, and the growth rate of social financing remained at 8.5%. The central bank conducted 883 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% and 100 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 18, 2025. The main term repurchase rates 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.273%, 1.426%, 1.582%, and 1.550% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2] 4. Spread Overview - The report mentions various spread indicators such as the cross - period spread trend of treasury bond futures varieties and the term spread of cash bonds and cross - variety spread of futures, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [31] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows relevant charts of the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [38] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows relevant charts of the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [52] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows relevant charts of the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [59] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows relevant charts of the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [66] Strategies - Unilateral: The repurchase rate declines, and the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates [4] - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4] - Hedging: There is an adjustment pressure in the medium term, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, wait for a clear bottom signal, focus on the opportunity to go long on the left side at low prices, and avoid chasing up [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals remain weak, and there is still insufficient upward drive in the market [1] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis - On December 18th, the closing price of the main BU2602 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 2,952 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton or 0.68% from the previous settlement price; the持仓 was 224,692 lots, down 10,773 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 410,415 lots, down 93,619 lots from the previous day [2] - The spot settlement prices of heavy-traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton; Shandong, 2,830 - 3,270 yuan/ton; South China, 2,750 - 3,100 yuan/ton; East China, 3,100 - 3,220 yuan/ton [2] - Although the asphalt market rebounded sharply the day before due to the fermentation of geopolitical concerns, the actual fundamentals remain weak, and the raw material supply is currently relatively abundant, so the upward drive in the market is limited. In the spot market, the asphalt spot price in Shandong rose slightly yesterday, while that in South China fell significantly, and the asphalt spot prices in other regions remained generally stable. Although some local refineries in Shandong limited or stopped shipments yesterday, resulting in a decrease in the circulation of spot market resources and a narrow increase in the regional asphalt spot price, the significant price cuts by major refineries in the southern region dampened the sentiment in the asphalt spot market and suppressed the market [2] Group 4: Summary of Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral, wait for a clear bottom signal, focus on the opportunity to go long on the left side at low prices, and avoid chasing up [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Group 5: Summary of Figures - The report includes figures on the spot prices of heavy-traffic asphalt in different regions, the closing prices of asphalt futures indices and contracts, trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures, domestic weekly asphalt production, asphalt production of independent refineries and in different regions, domestic asphalt consumption in different fields, and asphalt inventories in refineries and society [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PE faces continuous supply pressure with high - level supply, limited planned maintenance, and new device production expectations. Demand is weakening, inventory is accumulating, and cost support from oil is decreasing, making it difficult to have substantial improvement in the short - term [2] - PP's supply pressure is expected to be less than PE's. Although supply may increase slightly, there could be supply reduction due to high costs. Demand is generally weak, with only BOPP providing some support. Inventory remains high, and cost support has weakened, with limited short - term rebound drivers [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,476 yuan/ton (-3), and the PP main contract is 6,279 yuan/ton (+25). LL North China spot is 6,420 yuan/ton (-30), LL East China spot is 6,410 yuan/ton (-170), and PP East China spot is 6,210 yuan/ton (+10). LL North China basis is -56 yuan/ton (-27), LL East China basis is -66 yuan/ton (-167), and PP East China basis is -69 yuan/ton (-15) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE's开工率 is 83.9% (-0.2%), and PP's开工率 is 79.4% (+1.1%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE's oil - based production profit is 300.0 yuan/ton (-58.7), PP's oil - based production profit is -320.0 yuan/ton (-58.7), and PDH - made PP production profit is -715.6 yuan/ton (-1.5) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL's import profit is 46.6 yuan/ton (+146.6), PP's import profit is -269.8 yuan/ton (-1.7), and PP's export profit is -11.9 dollars/ton (+0.2) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE's downstream agricultural film开工率 is 45.2% (-1.2%), PE's downstream packaging film开工率 is 49.0% (-0.6%), PP's downstream plastic weaving开工率 is 44.0% (-0.1%), and PP's downstream BOPP film开工率 is 63.2% (+0.3%) [1] 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply is high, demand is weakening, inventory pressure is large, and cost support is decreasing, with no short - term substantial improvement expected [2] - **PP**: Supply pressure is less than PE, but demand is weak, inventory is high, cost support has weakened, and short - term rebound drivers are limited [3] 3. Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously short - sell LLDPE on rallies for hedging; wait and see on PP, which is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom in the short term [4] - **Inter - period**: Not provided [4] - **Inter - variety**: Short the spread of L05 - PP05 on rallies [4]