Group 1: Loan and Financing Trends - In April 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 280 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 450 billion, primarily due to the over-issuance in March and ongoing local debt replacement effects[1][4][11] - The total social financing (TSF) in April was 1.1585 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 1.2243 trillion, driven by a low base from the previous year and significant government bond issuance[1][7][11] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.0% year-on-year, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating enhanced financial support for the real economy[1][9][11] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The People's Bank of China announced a series of financial support policies on May 7, including interest rate cuts, which are expected to increase bank lending capacity by approximately 1 trillion[3][12] - The easing of the US-China trade tensions, as noted in the May 12 joint statement, may partially restore bilateral trade, although high tariffs will continue to pose challenges[3][12] - The expectation is for continued year-on-year increases in credit and social financing in May, with M2 growth also anticipated to accelerate[3][12][13] Group 3: Structural Changes in Loan Distribution - From January to April 2025, new loans totaled 10.06 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 130 billion, largely influenced by local debt replacement factors[1][6][11] - The structure of loans has improved, with the proportion of loans to small and micro enterprises, manufacturing, and key service sectors increasing significantly[1][6]

——美国 2025 年 4 月 CPI 数据点评 东方金诚宏观研究 关税战传导尚不充分，后期通胀仍将反弹 研究发展部高级副总监 白雪 事件： 5 月 13 日周二，美国劳工统计局公布 4 月 CPI 数据显示：CPI 同比增长 2.3%，预期值 2.4%，前值 2.4%；CPI 环比增长 0.2%，预期 0.3%，前值-0.4%；核心 CPI 同比增长 2.8%，为 自 2021 年春季通胀爆发以来的最低增速；预期值 2.8%，前值 2.8%；核心 CPI 环比上涨 0.2%，预期值 0.3%，前值 0.1%。从结构来看，商品价格刚刚回到通胀区域（同比+0.1%）， 而服务业通胀继续下滑。然而，核心服务业环比有所上升。 解读如下： 4 月 CPI 同比在基数效应以及低油价影响下继续降温，关税传导初步体现但尚不充分。 能源价格同比继续下降，为通胀维持低位提供支撑。4 月能源价格同比增速为-3.7%，较 上月下行 0.4 个百分点。其中，汽油价格同比跌幅扩大至 11.8%（季调后环比下降 0.1%）。4 月受 OPEC+增产影响，叠加关税战引发全球需求降温，国际油价大幅走弱，布伦特原油现货 均价降至 67.9 美 ...

Economic Developments - The high-level economic talks between China and the U.S. achieved significant consensus and substantial progress, with a joint statement expected on May 12[3] - April's export figures showed an 8.1% year-on-year increase, although exports to the U.S. fell by 21.0%, a decrease of 30.1 percentage points from the previous month[6] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) implemented a net cash injection of 770 billion yuan through reverse repos on May 9, with a rate of 1.40%[13] - The PBOC's monetary policy report emphasized a moderately accommodative stance, aiming to enhance the bond market's functionality and support the real economy[4] Inflation and Prices - April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% month-on-month after a 0.4% decline in March, while the year-on-year CPI decreased by 0.1%[6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.2 percentage points[6] Bond Market - The yield on the 10-year government bond decreased by 0.10 basis points to 1.6250% as of May 9, reflecting mixed market sentiment[16] - The first batch of 36 technology innovation bonds announced an issuance scale of 21 billion yuan, aimed at supporting tech enterprises[8] International Market Trends - U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed movements, with the 2-year yield down 2 basis points to 3.88% and the 10-year yield stable at 4.37%[23] - Major European economies saw a rise in 10-year government bond yields, with Germany's yield increasing by 3 basis points to 2.55%[26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April 2025, credit bond financing increased significantly due to seasonal factors and lower issuance rates, with the issuance volume reaching 1.49 trillion yuan, up 23.1% month - on - month and 6.4% year - on - year, and net financing turning positive [3][5]. - There was a continued divergence between urban investment bonds and industrial bonds in April. Urban investment bond issuance decreased month - on - month and year - on - year, with a widening net financing gap, while industrial bond issuance and net financing increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [3][5]. - In terms of issuance structure, in April, only AAA - rated credit bonds saw increases in issuance volume both month - on - month and year - on - year; AA - rated issuance accounted for 8.5%, down 3.0 pct from the previous month. By enterprise nature, most types of industrial bonds increased in issuance and net financing month - on - month, and by bond type, net financing of each bond type increased month - on - month, with only enterprise bonds and private placement notes having negative net financing [3][25]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overall Credit Bond Issuance - In April, credit bond issuance volume and net financing increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, with net financing turning positive. The issuance volume was 1.49 trillion yuan, up 23.1% month - on - month and 6.4% year - on - year; net financing was 2427 billion yuan, up 3663 billion yuan month - on - month and 549 billion yuan year - on - year. From January to April, credit bond financing was weaker than in the same period of 2024 [5]. - Urban investment bond issuance decreased month - on - month and year - on - year, with a widening net financing gap month - on - month and a slight narrowing year - on - year. From January to April, issuance decreased 17.1% year - on - year to 1292.9 billion yuan, and the net financing gap widened by 124 billion yuan to - 163.1 billion yuan [9]. - Driven by seasonal factors and lower financing costs, industrial bond issuance in April was 1.14 trillion yuan, up 42.0% month - on - month and 9.7% year - on - year; net financing turned positive to 333.9 billion yuan, up 397.3 billion yuan month - on - month and 39.1 billion yuan year - on - year. From January to April, issuance was 3.41 trillion yuan, basically the same as the previous year, and net financing was 849.5 billion yuan, down 251.1 billion yuan year - on - year [9]. - In April, the overall credit bond issuance rate decreased month - on - month, and the weighted average issuance term of credit bonds lengthened month - on - month, with only private enterprise bonds having a shorter issuance term [17][22]. 3.2 Credit Bond Issuance Structure - By credit rating, in April, only AAA - rated credit bonds saw increases in issuance volume both month - on - month and year - on - year; AA - rated issuance accounted for 8.5%, down 3.0 pct from the previous month. AAA - rated credit bond net financing turned positive, the financing gap of AA + - rated credit bonds widened month - on - month, and the financing gap of AA - rated credit bonds narrowed month - on - month [25]. - For urban investment bonds, in April, issuance of all ratings decreased month - on - month, and only AA - rated slightly increased year - on - year. The financing gaps of AAA - rated and AA + - rated urban investment bonds widened both month - on - month and year - on - year. From January to April, issuance of AAA - rated, AA + - rated, and AA - rated urban investment bonds decreased 25.8%, 17.3%, and 10.7% year - on - year respectively [26]. - For industrial bonds, in April, only AA - rated industrial bond issuance decreased slightly by 4.8 billion yuan month - on - month, and net financing of all ratings increased month - on - month, with AAA - rated and AA - rated net financing turning positive. From January to April, AA + - rated and AA - rated industrial bond issuance decreased 3.0% and 6.7% year - on - year respectively, while AAA - rated increased slightly by 0.5% [28]. - By enterprise nature, in April, issuance and net financing of industrial bonds of all enterprise types increased month - on - month, and only industrial local state - owned enterprise bonds decreased year - on - year. From January to April, issuance of industrial local state - owned enterprise bonds, central enterprise bonds, and private enterprise bonds changed by - 8.4%, 17.4%, and - 9.7% year - on - year respectively, and only industrial local state - owned enterprise bonds had a year - on - year decrease in net financing [25][32]. - By bond type, in April, except for private placement notes, issuance of other bond types increased both month - on - month and year - on - year; net financing of each bond type increased month - on - month, and only general corporate bonds and private placement notes had year - on - year increases in net financing. From January to April, except for private placement notes, net financing of other bond types decreased compared to the previous year, and enterprise bonds and private placement notes had negative cumulative net financing [25][37]. 3.3 Regional and Industry Credit Bond Issuance - For urban investment bonds, in April, issuance decreased in most provinces month - on - month; from January to April, issuance and net financing decreased year - on - year in more than half of the provinces. In April, 16 provinces saw a month - on - month decrease in urban investment bond issuance, and 19 provinces had negative net financing, 4 more than the previous month [42]. - For industrial bonds, in April, credit bond issuance increased month - on - month and year - on - year in most industries; from January to April, cumulative net financing was negative in the coal, building materials, national defense and military industry, and textile and apparel industries, and issuance and net financing in most industries were weaker than in the previous year [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the yield of long - term bonds increased slightly, and the yield curve steepened. Factors such as positive May Day holiday consumption data, rising expectations of Sino - US trade war easing, and better - than - expected April import and export data, along with the full pricing of loose monetary policy in long - term bonds before, led to the increase in long - term bond yields. The short - end interest rates decreased significantly due to the implementation of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts and the overall loose funding situation [1]. - This week (the week of May 12), the bond market is expected to continue the volatile pattern. The better - than - expected April import and export data had a certain negative impact on the bond market, but subsequent tariff impacts will be more evident, and the weak price data and less - than - expected April financial data support the bond market. The implementation of the reserve requirement ratio cut on Thursday will inject about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity into the banking system, and a new round of large - scale banks will lower deposit interest rates. The resumption of treasury bond trading operations is also expected to open up the downward space for the short - end and gradually transmit to the medium - and long - end. However, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the recovery of risk appetite will have a negative impact on the long - end bond yields. Overall, the 10 - year treasury bond yield will fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, may rise slightly, the short - end interest rates will further decline, and the yield curve is expected to continue to steepen [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Two - week Market Review 3.1.1 Secondary Market - Last week, the bond market was volatile, and the yield of long - term bonds increased slightly. The 10 - year treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.01% for the whole week. The 10 - year treasury bond yield increased by 1.08bp compared with the previous Wednesday, and the 1 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 4.05bp, with the term spread widening significantly [2]. - From April 28 to May 9, the bond market showed different trends on each trading day due to various factors such as policy announcements, economic data releases, and trade negotiations. For example, on May 7, long - term bond yields increased due to Sino - US trade negotiations and the less - than - expected scale of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts, while short - term bond yields decreased significantly [4]. 3.1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 50 interest - rate bonds were issued, an increase of 18 compared with the previous week. The issuance volume was 578.6 billion yuan, an increase of 443.5 billion yuan, and the net financing was 235.3 billion yuan, an increase of 100.6 billion yuan. The issuance volumes of treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local bonds all increased compared with the previous week. The net financing of treasury bonds increased, while that of local bonds and policy - financial bonds decreased [10]. - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds last week was generally acceptable. Among them, the average subscription multiple of treasury bonds (excluding 2 certificate - type treasury bonds) was 3.06 times, that of policy - financial bonds was 3.99 times, and that of local bonds was 26.38 times [11]. 3.2 Last Week's Important Events - The official manufacturing PMI in April decreased significantly. The manufacturing PMI index in April was 49.0%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from March, mainly due to the US tariff increase and seasonal factors. The non - manufacturing business activity index also declined [11][13]. - The CPI in April continued to be at a low level. The CPI in April decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, the same as the previous month. The PPI decreased by 2.7% year - on - year, a larger decline than the previous month. The current domestic price level is stable and weak, providing space for expanding consumption [13]. - The impact of the tariff war in April began to show, but the intensity was lower than expected. The export volume in April increased by 8.1% year - on - year, with a slowdown in growth, mainly due to the decline in exports to the US. The import volume decreased by 0.2% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline, mainly driven by the increase in imports from non - US economies. In the future, May's import and export may be negatively affected [13][14]. 3.3 Real - Economy Observation - Last week, the high - frequency data on the production side showed mixed trends. The blast furnace operating rate and daily hot metal output continued to rise, while the operating rates of petroleum asphalt plants and semi - steel tire plants decreased. On the demand side, the BDI index and the export container freight rate index CCFI both decreased, and the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline [15]. - In terms of prices, the pork price continued to rise slightly, and most commodity prices increased. Crude oil and copper prices rose, while the rebar price declined significantly [15]. 3.4 Last Week's Liquidity Observation - Last week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net capital withdrawal of 781.7 billion yuan [28][29]. - Last week, R007 and DR007 decreased significantly, the issuance interest rate of joint - stock bank inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased significantly, the national - share direct - discount interest rates of all terms decreased, the trading volume of pledged repurchase increased significantly, and the inter - bank market leverage ratio decreased significantly [30][31][34].

Export Performance - In April 2025, China's export value increased by 8.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 4.3 percentage points compared to March[2] - Exports to the US fell by 21.0% year-on-year, a decline of 30.1 percentage points from the previous month[2] - The overall export growth was supported by a "grab export" phenomenon to markets outside the US, with ASEAN exports rising by 20.8%[4] Import Trends - In April 2025, China's import value decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 4.1 percentage points from March[7] - Imports from the US dropped by 13.8%, with the decline expanding by 4.4 percentage points compared to the previous month[7] - Significant increases in imports from non-US economies, such as a 2.5% rise from Japan and a 7.3% increase from South Korea, were noted[8] Future Outlook - The impact of the tariff war is expected to intensify, with May exports potentially turning negative, particularly a forecasted 60% decline in exports to the US[5] - Domestic support for foreign trade enterprises will increase, focusing on diversifying international markets and enhancing domestic sales platforms[6] - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49% in April, indicating contraction, with expectations of further declines in imports and overall trade performance in May[10]

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In April 2025, China's manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from March, marking the largest decline in nearly two years[2][3] - The decline is attributed to two main factors: a significant change in the external environment due to increased tariffs from the U.S. and seasonal factors, as April typically sees a decrease in manufacturing activity compared to March[3] - New export orders index fell sharply by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, the lowest level in 28 months, primarily due to high tariffs impacting orders from the U.S.[4] Economic Indicators - The production index for April was 49.8%, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting weakened market demand[4] - The main raw materials purchasing price index decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.0%, while the factory price index fell by 3.1 percentage points to 44.3%, indicating significant contraction in both indices[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 51.5%, despite a 0.8 percentage point decline, showcasing resilience amid market challenges[5][6] Future Outlook - The construction PMI for April was 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points, influenced by a slowdown in real estate investment; however, civil engineering activity index rose to 60.9%, indicating potential for increased infrastructure investment[6] - The central government's recent policy directives emphasize stronger counter-cyclical measures and proactive macroeconomic policies, suggesting a focus on boosting domestic demand and infrastructure investment[7] - It is anticipated that the manufacturing PMI may remain in contraction territory in May but could rebound to around 49.5% due to the implementation of growth-stimulating policies[7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, gold prices corrected due to further slowdown in tariff expectations, decline in risk - aversion sentiment, and profit - taking by long positions. The prices of Shanghai gold futures, gold T + D, COMEX gold futures, and London gold spot all decreased [1]. - This week (the week of April 28), gold prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust. In the short - term, they lack the momentum to rise further. In the long - term, factors such as US tariff pressure, policy uncertainty, and the risk of "stagflation" and economic recession will support gold prices [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - On April 25, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 787.20 yuan/gram, down 3.82 yuan/gram from April 18. The price of gold T + D was 784.93 yuan/gram, down 2.27 yuan/gram. Internationally, the closing price of COMEX gold futures was 3330.20 dollars/ounce, down 11.10 dollars/ounce from April 17, and the price of London gold spot was 3318.76 dollars/ounce, down 8.07 dollars/ounce [4]. - The trading data shows different trends in cumulative price changes, trading volumes, and positions for different gold products [7]. 1.2 Gold Basis - Last Friday, the international gold basis (spot - futures) turned positive to 5.10 dollars/ounce, up 22.55 dollars/ounce from the previous Thursday. The Shanghai gold basis was - 1.11 yuan/gram, up 1.43 yuan/gram from the previous Friday [8]. 1.3 Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Spread - Last Friday, the gold domestic - foreign price spread was 16.58 yuan/gram, up from 12.20 yuan/gram the previous Friday. The spread increased because overseas tariff expectations eased, causing the decline of foreign gold prices to be greater than that of domestic ones. The gold - oil ratio slightly increased, the gold - silver ratio slightly decreased, and the gold - copper ratio continued to decline [11]. 1.4 Position Analysis - In terms of spot positions, last week, the gold ETF holdings decreased slightly. As of last Friday, the holdings of the largest SPRD gold ETF were 946.27 tons, down 6.02 tons from the previous Thursday. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T + D increased significantly, up 75.86% from the previous week. - In terms of futures positions, as of April 22, the long positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions decreased, while the short positions increased, leading to a continuous decrease in net long positions. The COMEX gold futures inventory continued to decrease, and the SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 15678 kilograms [16]. 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals 2.1 Important Economic Data - Under tariff threats, the Bank of Japan maintains a gradual interest - rate hike stance. It may lower the economic growth forecast from 1.1% to about 0.5% in the next quarterly report [19]. - The IMF downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8% from 3.3% in January. It also lowered the US economic growth forecast and estimated the probability of the US falling into recession in 2025 at 40% [20]. - The US April Markit composite PMI unexpectedly declined to the lowest in 16 months. The manufacturing PMI was higher than expected, but the service PMI and composite PMI were lower than expected [21]. - Trump plans to exempt some tariffs for automakers, but this does not include a 25% tariff on imported complete vehicles and a 25% tariff on imported auto parts starting on May 3 [22]. - In March, US durable goods orders increased by 9.2% month - on - month, but capital goods orders only increased by 0.1% due to tariff concerns [23]. - In March, US existing - home sales dropped by 5.9% month - on - month, the largest decline since November 2022 [24]. 2.2 Fed Policy Tracking - On April 24, Fed Governor Waller warned that the trade war might lead to an increase in unemployment. If tariffs remain unchanged, there will be no significant impact on the US economy before July. If tariffs rise, he may support interest - rate cuts. - Cleveland Fed President Hamark believes that the Fed should be patient with monetary policy in the face of high uncertainty and may take action as early as June if there is clear evidence of the economic direction [33]. 2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - Last week, the US dollar index rebounded slightly during fluctuations. As the US Treasury Secretary hinted at the easing of Sino - US trade tensions and Trump said he had no intention of firing Fed Chairman Powell, market risk appetite recovered, driving the dollar index up 0.36% to 99.58 as of last Friday [34]. 2.4 US TIPS Yield Trend - Last week, the speeches of Fed officials boosted market expectations of interest - rate cuts, causing the 10 - year TIPS yield to decline by 9bp to 2.02% as of last Friday [36]. 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - It is difficult for the Israeli - Palestinian sides to reach a cease - fire agreement, and the Russia - Ukraine situation remains uncertain. The Israeli military continued to bomb Gaza, and Qatar's Prime Minister said that there was some progress in a new cease - fire agreement in Gaza but a complete cease - fire was hard to achieve. Russia claimed to have recaptured the Kursk region, while Ukraine refuted it [40].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On April 27, the overall capital market was balanced, with a slight increase in capital prices. The bond market showed narrow - range fluctuations due to light trading on the make - up working day [1]. - The profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size in Q1 2025 turned from a decline to an increase, and the revenue growth rate continued to accelerate, creating favorable conditions for profit recovery [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - In Q1 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size turned from a year - on - year decline of 3.3% in the previous year to an increase of 0.8%. In March, the profit growth rate was 2.6%, up from a 0.3% decline from January to February. The revenue growth rate also continued to accelerate [3]. - Six departments issued a notice to optimize the tax - refund policy for outbound travelers, aiming to boost inbound consumption [4]. - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng called on the IMF to adjust share ratios to increase the representation of emerging markets and developing countries [4]. - In Q1 2025, 30 private enterprises in the inter - bank market issued over 60 billion yuan of debt financing instruments to support new productive forces [5]. - "Second - to - first - home" mortgage borrowers meeting relevant conditions can enjoy special additional deductions for housing loan interest [6]. 3.2 Capital Market - **Open Market Operations** - On April 27, the central bank conducted 90 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.50%, with a net capital injection of 90 billion yuan as there were no reverse repurchase maturities [8]. - **Capital Interest Rates** - On April 27, the capital market was balanced, but capital prices rose slightly. DR001 rose 2.67bp to 1.608%, and DR007 rose 7.72bp to 1.713% [9]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Bearing Bonds** - On April 27, the bond market showed narrow - range fluctuations due to light trading. The yields of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250004 and the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250205 remained unchanged [12]. - There were no treasury bond or CDB bond issuances on that day [13]. - **Credit Bonds** - Credit bond events include announcements from various companies such as non - downward revision of conversion prices, inability to disclose financial statements on time, cancellation of bond issuances, and changes in financial performance [15][16]. - **Convertible Bonds** - On April 27, Guanglian Convertible Bond announced no downward revision of the conversion price and would not choose to revise it downward in the next 6 months if the downward - revision clause is triggered again [15].

Revenue Performance - In March 2025, national general public budget revenue increased by 0.3% year-on-year, an improvement from a decline of 1.6% in January-February[1] - Cumulative general public budget revenue for Q1 2025 decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, lower than the full-year growth rate of the previous year[2] - Cumulative government fund revenue for Q1 2025 fell by 11.0% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 10.7% in January-February[1] Expenditure Trends - Cumulative general public budget expenditure for Q1 2025 grew by 4.2% year-on-year, an acceleration of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous year[6] - In March 2025, general public budget expenditure increased by 5.7% year-on-year, up 2.3 percentage points from January-February[8] - Cumulative government fund expenditure for Q1 2025 rose by 11.1% year-on-year, significantly higher than the 1.2% growth in January-February[1] Tax Revenue Insights - In Q1 2025, tax revenue decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 8.8%[3] - In March 2025, corporate income tax revenue surged by 16.0% year-on-year, a significant increase of 26.4 percentage points compared to January-February[4] - Personal income tax revenue in March 2025 plummeted by 58.5% year-on-year, contrasting with a 26.7% increase in January-February, primarily due to the timing of the Spring Festival[4] Land Market and Special Bonds - Cumulative land use rights transfer revenue in Q1 2025 fell by 15.9% year-on-year, indicating ongoing weakness in the real estate market[9] - The issuance of special bonds in Q1 2025 was significantly high, contributing to a substantial increase in government fund expenditure[9] - Future issuance of special bonds and long-term special treasury bonds in April 2025 is expected to enhance investment and consumption stability[9]