资金面快速转松；特朗普称或将"大幅降低"对华关税，债市小幅调整 【内容摘要】4 月 23 日，资金面快速转松，主要回购利率大幅下行；债市小幅调整；转债市 场继续上涨，转债个券多数上涨；海外方面，各期限美债收益率走势分化，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍上行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【上金所：调整部分合约保证金水平和涨跌停板】4 月 23 日，上海黄金交易所发布《关于调 整部分合约保证金水平和涨跌停板的通知》，对黄金延期品种与白银延期合约交易保证金水平 和涨跌停板比例进行调整。自 2025 年 4 月 25 日（星期五）收盘清算时起，Au（T+D）、mAu （T+D）、Au（T+N1）、Au（T+N2）、NYAuTN06、NYAuTN12 等合约的保证金水平从 12%调整为 13%，下一交易日起涨跌幅度限制从 11%调整为 12%；Ag（T+D）合约的保证金水平从 15%调整 为 16%，下一交易日起涨跌幅度限制从 14%调整为 15%。 【全国首单集体经济类 REITs 项目获批，规模 4.5 亿元】日前，以娄葑街道集体经济载体为 底层资产的"华金-元联-娄葑街道联创产业园资产支持专项计划"正 ...

4 月 LPR 报价维持不变；资金面边际收敛，债市有所调整 【内容摘要】4 月 21 日，资金面边际收敛，主要回购利率均上行；债市有所调整；转债市场 主要指数跟随收涨，转债个券多数上涨；海外方面，各期限美债收益率走势分化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【4 月 LPR 报价出炉：5 年期和 1 年期利率均维持不变】4 月 21 日，央行授权全国银行间同业 拆借中心公布，1 年期 LPR 为 3.1%，5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.6%，连续 6 个月维持不变。业内人士 表示，虽然近来多家银行密集下调存款利率，为 LPR 下行创造了一定空间，但鉴于当前 LPR 的 定价"锚"仍维持稳定，且息差及汇率等内外部影响因素仍存，LPR 持稳也符合预期。往后看， 二季度政策降息有望落地，届时将带动 LPR 下行。 【交易商协会发布《银行间债券市场债券估值业务自律指引（试行）》】4 月 21 日，交易商 协会发布《银行间债券市场债券估值业务自律指引（试行）》。其中提到，现券做市商应增强 独立定价能力，在定价过程中减少对第三方估值的依赖，根据业务实际需要和市场状况开展报 价。鼓励估值产品用户选择多个估值产品，对估值结果开展 ...

Group 1: LPR Pricing Analysis - The April LPR remained unchanged at 3.10% for the 1-year term and 3.60% for the 5-year term, consistent with market expectations[4] - The stability in LPR pricing is attributed to unchanged policy rates and historically low bank net interest margins, reducing the incentive for banks to lower LPR[7] - The LPR has not changed since the beginning of the year, reflecting a strong economic performance in Q1, despite a shift in monetary policy towards moderate easing[7] Group 2: Future Expectations - A policy interest rate cut is anticipated in Q2, potentially leading to a 30 basis point reduction in LPR, similar to the total cut from the previous year[7] - This expected reduction in LPR is aimed at lowering financing costs for businesses and households, thereby stimulating consumption and investment to enhance domestic demand[7] - Future LPR adjustments may pressure banks' net interest margins, which will be mitigated by guiding deposit rates downwards and reducing funding costs[8]

财政部通知超长期特别国债、中央金融机构注资特别国债即将发行；债市走弱， 银行间市场主要期限利率债收益率多数上行 【内容摘要】4 月 17 日，央行公开市场大额净投放，资金面整体宽松，主要回购利率下行； 但债市全线走弱，银行间市场主要期限利率债收益率多数上行；"H21 合景 1" 调整本息兑付 安排议案获通过，4 月 18 日开市起复牌；重庆金科地产的重整申请已被受理，但重庆金科普 通债权重整草案暂未通过；转债市场主要指数及多数个券收涨；海外方面，主要期限美债收益 率全线上行；欧央行降息 25 个基点，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【今年超长期特别国债、中央金融机构注资特别国债即将发行】财政部 4 月 17 日对外发布多 则通知称，2025 年超长期特别国债、2025 年中央金融机构注资特别国债将于下周开始发行。 根据通知，财政部拟于 4 月 24 日发行 2025 年中央金融机构注资特别国债（一期）。本次发行 国债竞争性招标面值总额 1650 亿元，为 5 年期固定利率附息债。同日，财政部还拟发行 2025 年超长期特别国债（一期）（20 年期），竞争性招标面值 ...

东方金诚宏观研究 内需全面发力，一季度宏观经济实现"开门红" ——2025 年 3 月宏观数据点评 首席宏观分析师 王青 研究发展部执行总监 冯琳 事件：据国家统计局 2025 年 4 月 16 日公布的数据，2025 年一季度 GDP 同比增长 5.4%，增速与去年 四季度持平，较 2024 年全年增速加快 0.4 百分点，超出市场普遍预期；2025 年 3 月规模以上工业增加值 同比实际增长 7.7%，前值为 5.9%；一季度规模以上工业增加值累计同比实际增长 6.5%，2024 年全年累 计同比为 5.8%；3 月社会消费品零售总额同比增长 5.9%，前值为 4.0%；一季度社会消费品零售总额累计 同比增长 4.6%，2024 年全年累计同比为 3.5%；2025 年 1-3 月全国固定资产投资累计同比增长 4.2%，前 值为 4.1%，2024 年全年累计同比增长 3.2%。 基本观点： 整体上看，受一揽子增量政策持续推进、外需保持较强韧性等带动，一季度宏观经济保持较强增长 动能，GDP 同比增速达到 5.4%，超出市场普遍预期。背后主要是一季度内需全面发力，成为推动经济实 现"开门红"的主要动力，同 ...

东方金诚宏观研究 3 月新增信贷、社融均超预期，接下来货币政策发力将推动金融总量增速持续加快 ——2025 年 3 月金融数据点评 王青 李晓峰 冯琳 事件：2025 年 4 月 13 日，央行公布的数据显示，2025 年 3 月新增人民币贷款 3.64 万亿，同比多增 5500 亿；3 月新增社会融资规模为 58879 亿，同比多增 10544 亿；3 月末，广义货币(M2)同比增长 7.0%， 增速与上月末持平；狭义货币(M1)同比增长 1.6%，增速较上月末高 1.5 个百分点。 基本观点： 总体上看，主要受企业贷款较大幅度同比多增，以及政府债券持续大规模发行带动，3 月新增信贷规 模为历史同期次高水平，新增社融规模创历史同期新高，均超市场预期，两个主要金融总量增速加快，金 融对实体经济支持力度增强。值得注意的是，3 月用于化债的地方政府债券大规模发行，是带动新增社融 同比多增逾 1 万亿的一个主要原因，显示政府债券融资正在成为稳增长、控风险的主要抓手，也是一揽子 增量政策持续发力的具体体现。 展望未来，美国"对等关税"落地，外部波动骤然加大，无疑会加快国内宏观政策对冲步伐。我们判 断，综合考虑当前外部 ...

Credit and Financing Growth - In March 2025, new RMB loans reached 3.64 trillion, an increase of 550 billion year-on-year, marking the second-highest level for the same period historically[1][3] - The new social financing scale in March was 5.89 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 1.05 trillion, setting a historical high for the same period[2][6] - The growth in new credit and social financing indicates enhanced financial support for the real economy, driven by significant increases in corporate loans and government bond issuances[2][8] Government Bond Issuance Impact - A large-scale issuance of local government bonds for debt replacement contributed to a year-on-year increase of over 1 trillion in new social financing, highlighting the role of government bond financing in stabilizing growth and controlling risks[2][8] - The net financing of government bonds increased by 1.02 trillion year-on-year, reflecting proactive fiscal policies and substantial debt replacement activities[6][8] Monetary Policy Outlook - The current external economic environment and domestic market conditions suggest that the timing for potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is maturing, possibly occurring as early as April 2025[2][9] - The anticipated interest rate cut could be around 0.3 percentage points, while the reserve requirement ratio may be reduced by 0.5 percentage points, releasing approximately 1 trillion in long-term funds to banks[9][10] Monetary Aggregates - As of the end of March, the M2 money supply grew by 7.0% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the previous month, while M1 increased by 1.6%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month[7][8] - The increase in M1 is attributed to a rise in corporate short-term loans and a recovering real estate market, although the overall growth rate remains low, indicating a need for further economic stimulation[7][8]

东方金诚宏观研究 3 月出口超预期，后续贸易战影响值得高度关注 ——2025 年 3 月贸易数据解读 研究发展部执行总监 冯琳 东方金诚宏观研究 特朗普政府宣布将暂缓对三分之一的美国贸易伙伴实施差异化高关税，但仍将加征 10%的所谓"基线关 税"，而 2024 年美国平均关税税率为 2.3%。这意味着从 4 月开始，美国实际关税税率仍将出现一次大 幅跃升，将对全球产业链形成很大扰动，后期外需整体放缓风险值得高度关注。 根据海关总署公布的数据，以美元计价，2025 年 3 月出口额同比增长 12.4%，比 1-2 月累计同比增 速加快 10.1 个百分点；3 月进口额同比下降 4.3%，比 1-2 月累计同比降幅收窄 4.1 个百分点。 一、3 月出口同比增速显著加快，主要源于上年同期基数偏低，外需韧性较强，以及仍在一定程度 上存在"抢出口"效应。美国大幅加征关税后，短期内除手机、电脑等相关电子产品外，大多数中美双 边贸易已无市场接受的可能性；另外，特朗普政府在全球范围内大幅加征关税，还会拖累外需整体放缓。 以人民币计价，3 月出口、进口额同比增速分别为 13.5%和-3.5%，与同期以美元计价的增速差主要 源 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market remained strong due to tariff shocks. On April 7, influenced by US tariff impacts, the market's risk - aversion sentiment was high, and the expectation of loose monetary policy increased. However, on April 8, with Central Huijin's action to stabilize the stock market, the bond market weakened. Subsequently, the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions and loose liquidity led to the bond market strengthening again on April 9 and 10. On April 11, the market's tariff expectation eased, and the bond market fluctuated narrowly. Overall, the bond market was still strong last week, with long - term bond yields declining and the yield curve steepening [1]. - This week (the week of April 14), the bond market is expected to show a volatile pattern. The March economic and financial data exceeding expectations and the easing of tariff expectations will have a negative impact on the bond market. However, the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the continuation of Sino - US trade games, the possible pressure on the domestic economy in the second quarter, the weak domestic effective demand, and the expectation of loose monetary policy will support the bond market [1]. Summary of Each Section 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market remained strong last week, with long - term bond yields dropping significantly. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.35% in the whole week. On Friday, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 6.12bp compared with the previous Thursday, and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 8.51bp, with the term spread widening significantly [2]. - On April 7, the bond market remained strong due to the counter - tariff measures and the expectation of loose monetary policy. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined significantly, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped 8.62bp [2]. - On April 8, the bond market corrected as the central bank supported Central Huijin to increase stock purchases, the stock market rebounded, and the liquidity was tight. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally increased, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 3.15bp [2]. - On April 9, the bond market strengthened as the liquidity loosened and the US tariff and China's counter - measures increased the expectation of loose monetary policy. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped 1.25bp [2]. - On April 10, the bond market fluctuated strongly under the influence of multiple factors. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped 0.64bp [2]. - On April 11, the yields of inter - bank major interest - rate bonds showed different trends. The short - and medium - term yields continued to decline, while the long - term yields increased. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 1.24bp [2][3]. 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 55 interest - rate bonds were issued, 11 more than the previous week. The issuance volume was 690.1 billion yuan, 9.8 billion yuan less than the previous week, and the net financing was - 180.6 billion yuan, 659.8 billion yuan less than the previous week. The issuance and net financing of Treasury bonds decreased, while the issuance of policy - bank bonds and local bonds increased, but the net financing decreased [10]. - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally acceptable last week. The average subscription multiples of Treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and local bonds were 3.98 times, 3.55 times, and 20.54 times respectively [11]. 2. Last Week's Important Events - In March, the year - on - year decline of CPI narrowed significantly. The CPI in March decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, compared with a 0.7% decline in February. The PPI in March decreased by 2.5% year - on - year, compared with a 2.2% decline in February. The decline of CPI was mainly due to the lower base in the same period last year and the support of relevant policies. The decline of PPI was due to the fall of international oil prices, weak domestic demand, and insufficient terminal consumption [12]. - The March financial data generally exceeded market expectations. The new RMB loans in March were 3.64 trillion yuan, an increase of 550 billion yuan year - on - year. The new social financing scale was 5.8879 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.0544 trillion yuan year - on - year. The M2 growth rate remained unchanged at 7.0% at the end of March, and the M1 growth rate increased by 1.5 percentage points to 1.6% compared with the end of February [12]. 3. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, most high - frequency data on the production side declined. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt plants, semi - steel tires, and daily average molten iron output decreased, while the blast furnace operating rate increased. On the demand side, the BDI index continued to fall, the CCFI index slightly rebounded, and the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to decrease. In terms of prices, pork prices continued to decline slightly, and most commodity prices also dropped, including rebar, crude oil, and copper [14]. 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 439.2 billion yuan last week [26]. - The R007 and DR007 continued to decline, the issuance rate of joint - stock bank inter - bank certificates of deposit continued to decline, the 3M national - owned bill discount rate continued to decline, the trading volume of pledged repurchase significantly decreased, and the inter - bank market leverage ratio fluctuated and declined [29]

东方金诚宏观研究 具体来看： 3 月 CPI 同比降幅明显收窄，当前物价水平为扩内需对冲外部波动提供充分空间 ——2025 年 3 月物价数据点评 研究发展部总监 冯琳 事件：根据国家统计局公布的数据，2025 年 3 月，CPI 同比下降 0.1%，上月为下降 0.7%；1-3 月 CPI 累计同比下降 0.1%；3 月 PPI 同比下降 2.5%，上月为下降 2.2%，1-3 月 PPI 累计同比下降 2.3%。 基本观点：3 月 CPI 环比季节性下行，同比降幅明显收窄，主要是受上年同期基数下沉带动，与此同时， 以旧换新政策扩围加力，也对家电、汽车、电子产品价格带来支撑。我们认为，在春节错期效应导致年初 两个月数据大幅颠簸之后，3 月 CPI 同比更能体现当前整体物价稳中偏弱状况。3 月 PPI 环比、同比跌幅 扩大，主因国际原油价格总体继续下跌并逐步传导至国内相关行业，国内需求偏弱拖累下，煤炭、钢铁等 工业品价格亦有所下行，另外，终端消费不足导致生活资料价格跌幅也有所加深。总体上看，当前国内物 价水平稳中偏弱，为扩消费对冲外部冲击提供了充分的空间。 展望未来，4 月外部经贸环境变数骤然加大，部分出口转 ...