东方金诚 研究发展部 债市偏弱震荡，收益率曲线延续陡峭化 ——利率债周报（2025.5.19-2025.5.25） 作者 分析师 瞿瑞 部门执行总监 冯琳 时间 2025 年 5 月 26 日 核心观点 ⚫ 上周债市偏弱震荡，长债收益率进一步上行。上周（5 月 19 日） 初，LPR 如期调降，叠加大行存款利率下调，债市呈现利好兑现 后的先扬后抑走势。随后，受资金面反复，50 年特别国债发飞， 股市走弱等多空因素扰动，周三至周五债市维持震荡格局。整 体上看，上周资金面反复以及降息落地利好出尽，驱动长债收 益率延续上行。短端利率方面，上周央行通过加大净投放力度、 放量续作MLF等多途径保障税期流动性，资金面整体较为宽松， 推动短端利率小幅下行，收益率曲线进一步陡峭化。 本周（5 月 26 日当周）债市料将延续震荡格局。从资金面来 看，尽管本周适逢跨月，但央行近期呵护流动性意愿较强，资 金面仍有望保持宽松。从基本面上来看，本周处于宏观经济数 据真空期，中美贸易战暂缓虽减轻基本面下行压力，但市场对 基本面的偏弱预期仍难以扭转。整体上看，短期内债市仍将延 续窄幅震荡，预计 10 年期国债收益率将在 1.65%-1.7 ...

上交所试点公司债券续发行和资产支持证券扩募业务；资金面继续改善，债市延 续震荡 【内容摘要】5 月 21 日，央行连续 3 日公开市场净投放，资金面继续改善；债市延续震荡走 势；转债市场主要指数涨跌互见，转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率普遍上行，主要欧洲 经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍上行。 （三）大宗商品 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【八部门发文多措并举破解小微企业融资难】5 月 21 日，金融监管总局等 8 部门发布了《支 持小微企业融资的若干措施》，从增加融资供给、降低综合融资成本、提高融资效率、提高支 持精准性、落实监管政策、强化风险管理、完善政策保障、做好组织实施等 8 个方面，提出 23 项具体举措，做好普惠金融大文章，进一步改善小微企业、个体工商户融资状况。本次发布的 《措施》涉及金融监管总局、央行、证监会、国家发改委、工信部、财政部、税务总局、市场 监管总局 8 个部门。对此，金融监管总局指出，这是要着重发挥监管、货币、财税、产业等各 项政策合力。 【上交所试点公司债券续发，提升债券市场流动性】5 月 21 日，上交所发布通知称，试点公 司债券续发行和资产支持证券扩募业务。此举旨在规范公 ...

债市"科技板"将重点支持排名靠前、投资经验丰富的头部股权投资机构发行债 券；资金面整体偏松，债市延续震荡 【内容摘要】5 月 22 日，资金面整体偏松，主要回购利率延续下行；债市延续震荡走势；转 债市场主要指数集体跟跌，转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率普遍下行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率走势分化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【多部门共同支持加快构建科技金融体制】5 月 22 日，多部门有关负责人在国新办新闻发布 会上介绍科技金融政策有关情况时表示，将努力健全多层次科技金融服务体系，打通科技成果 向现实生产力转化的通道。央行副行长、国家外汇局局长朱鹤新表示，要提升科技贷款的投放 强度和服务能力，建设债券市场"科技板"。证监会首席风险官、发行监管司司长严伯进在发 布会上表示，证监会大力推动科创债、绿色债等创新品种发展，重点支持高新技术、战略新兴 产业企业进行债券融资，鼓励有关机构为科技企业发行科创债提供征信支持。 【朱鹤新：债券市场"科技板"将重点支持排名靠前、投资经验丰富的头部股权投资机构发行 债券】央行副行长、国家外汇局局长朱鹤新 5 月 22 日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，债券市场 科技板将创 ...

东方金诚宏观研究 4 月财政收入端延续改善，财政支出节奏加快 —— 2024 年 5 月财政数据点评 分析师：瞿瑞 冯琳 事件：5 月 20 日，财政部公布的数据显示，2025 年 4 月，全国一般公共预算收入同 比增长 1.9%，3 月为 0.3%；4 月全国一般公共预算支出同比增长 5.8%，3 月为 5.7%；1-4 月全国政府性基金收入累计同比下降 6.7%，1-3 月为-11.0%；1-4 月全国政府性基金支出 累计同比增长 17.7%，1-3 月为 11.1%。 主要观点：受税收收入改善以及低基数效应驱动，4 月财政收入端延续正增长，为支 出端发力提供支撑。其中，当月一般公共预算收入同比增长 1.9%，较 3 月回升 1.6 个百分 点；土地出让金收入同比实现正增长，带动 4 月政府性基金收入同比增速显著提升至 8.1%。 从支出端来看，4 月广义财政支出同比增长 12.9%，明显高于当月广义财政收入增速以及 名义 GDP 增速，显示在外部环境急剧变化的背景下，4 月财政支出节奏加快，稳增长政策 开始全面加力。其中，当月一般公共预算支出同比增长 5.8%，增速较 3 月加快 0.1 个百分 点，同 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints On May 20, the liquidity continued to ease, with major repo rates declining. The reduction of deposit rates by large banks and the expected cut of LPR led to a correction in the bond market. The main indices of the convertible bond market closed higher, and most individual convertible bonds rose. The yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across different tenors showed divergent trends, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies also varied [1]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: The latest LPR was lowered on May 20, with the 1 - year LPR dropping to 3% and the 5 - year and above to 3.5%, both down 10 basis points. State - owned banks and some joint - stock banks cut deposit rates, and mortgage rates in Beijing and Shanghai were also reduced by 10 basis points. From January to April, the cumulative decline of national fiscal revenue continued to narrow, while fiscal expenditure accelerated. Additionally, multiple departments will support urban renewal, and the central bank emphasized stabilizing the economy [3][4][5]. - **International News**: The Reserve Bank of Australia cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% on May 20, the lowest since May 2023. It also discussed the possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut. The bank predicted that in the worst - case scenario of the "trade war", the unemployment rate might rise to nearly 6%, inflation would drop to around 2% by the end of 2026, and GDP would decline by more than 3% by mid - 2027 [7]. - **Commodities**: On May 20, WTI June crude oil futures fell 0.21% to $62.56 per barrel, Brent July crude oil futures fell 0.24% to $65.38 per barrel, COMEX gold futures rose 1.82% to $3292.20 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 9.97% to $3.420 per ounce [8]. 3.2 Liquidity - **Open - Market Operations**: On May 20, the central bank conducted 3570 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 1800 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net capital injection was 1770 billion yuan [10][11]. - **Funding Rates**: On May 20, the liquidity continued to ease, and major repo rates declined. DR001 dropped 2.11 basis points to 1.516%, and DR007 dropped 1.58 basis points to 1.586% [12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds**: - **Yield Trends**: On May 20, due to the reduction of deposit rates by large banks and the expected cut of LPR, the bond market corrected. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250004 rose 1.10 basis points to 1.6660%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active bond 250205 rose 1.45 basis points to 1.7345% [15]. - **Bond Tendering**: Information on the tendering of several bonds such as 25Guokai03 (Zeng17) was provided, including details like term, issuance scale, winning yield, and multiple over - subscriptions [17]. - **Credit Bonds**: - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies**: On May 20, two industrial bonds and one urban investment bond had transaction price deviations of over 10%. "24Chanrong02" fell over 14%, "H1Rongchuang03" rose over 25%, and "20ChangzhouBinjiangGreenBond" fell over 18% [17][18]. - **Credit Bond Events**: There were events such as Rong盛 Development planning to hold a bondholder meeting, and杉杉 Group's creditor's meeting passing relevant proposals [19]. - **Convertible Bonds**: - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On May 20, the A - share market and the convertible bond market both rose. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rose 0.38%, 0.77%, and 0.77% respectively. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 0.26%, 0.23%, and 0.28% respectively [20]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Some convertible bonds were expected to trigger downward revisions of conversion prices or meet early - redemption conditions [26]. - **Overseas Bond Markets**: - **U.S. Bond Market**: On May 20, the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across different tenors showed divergent trends. The 2 - year yield remained at 3.97%, while the 10 - year yield rose 2 basis points to 4.48%. The yield spreads between 2 - year and 10 - year, and 5 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds widened [22][23]. - **European Bond Market**: On May 20, the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends. The yields of German, Italian, and British 10 - year government bonds rose, while those of France and Spain remained unchanged [25]. - **Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds as of May 20 were presented, showing the top 10 gainers and losers in terms of daily price changes [28].

4 月经济运行总体保持平稳；资金面收敛态势有所缓解，债市明显回暖 【内容摘要】5 月 19 日，央行公开市场继续净投放，资金面收敛态势有所缓解；债市明显回 暖；转债市场主要指数集体收涨，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率走势分化，主要欧洲 经济体 10 年期国债收益率走势分化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【4 月份经济运行保持总体平稳】国家统计局 5 月 19 日发布的数据显示，4 月全国规模以上 工业增加值同比增长 6.1%，社会消费品零售总额同比增长 5.1%。1-4 月，全国固定资产投资 （不含农户）同比增长 4.0%。国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示，4 月份，我国经济运行保持 总体平稳。面对外部冲击，我国经济能够顶住压力稳定增长，既得益于我国经济基础稳、优势 多、韧性强、潜能大，也得益于宏观政策协同发力、各方面积极应变，更是坚定不移推动高质 量发展、加快构建新发展格局的结果。 【4 月 70 大中城市中有 22 城新建商品住宅价格环比上涨】5 月 19 日，国家统计局公布数据 显示，中国 4 月 70 大中城市中有 22 城新建商品住宅价格环比上涨，3 月为 24 城；其中，上 海、大连涨幅 0. ...

Group 1: LPR Adjustment - The LPR for 1-year and 5-year terms was lowered by 0.1 percentage points to 3.0% and 3.50% respectively[1] - This marks the first reduction after six months of stability, driven by a recent package of financial policies from the central bank[2] - The adjustment reflects a change in the pricing basis for LPR, indicating a transmission of policy rate adjustments to loan market rates[2] Group 2: Economic Context - The reduction in LPR is a response to the escalation of the US-China tariff conflict, necessitating stronger counter-cyclical adjustments in macro policy[2] - Lowering policy rates aims to stimulate domestic demand to offset external demand slowdown, thereby stabilizing economic operations[2] - The central bank is expected to continue implementing interest rate cuts in the second half of the year due to ongoing uncertainties in the external environment[3] Group 3: Impact on Deposits and Banks - The 1-year LPR reduction is anticipated to lead to a comprehensive decrease in deposit rates, averaging a decline of 0.1 percentage points[4] - Short-term deposit rates will see smaller reductions, while longer-term deposit rates may experience more significant declines[4] - The latest data shows that the net interest margin for commercial banks fell to 1.43% in Q1 2025, down by 0.09 percentage points, marking a historical low[4]

中美贸易谈判超预期，资金面趋紧，债市延续调整 ——利率债周报（2025.5.12-2025.5.18） 作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 部门执行总监 冯琳 时间 2025 年 5 月 19 日 核心观点 ⚫ 上周债市震荡调整，长债收益率大幅上行。上周一（5 月 12 日） 中美达成贸易共识，双边关税显著调降，市场避险情绪迅速降 温，债市出现明显调整。周二市场情绪有所修复，但因国债放 量发行，资金面逐步收紧，周三、周四债市再度调整。直到周 五资金面边际改善，债市小幅回暖。整体上看，受中美谈判超 预期以及资金面趋紧影响，上周债市震荡偏空，长债收益率延 续上行。短端利率方面，尽管降准落地，但受央行连续净回笼 及MLF到期影响，上周资金面先松后紧，导致短端利率延续上行 态势，但上行幅度小于长端，收益率曲线进一步陡峭化。 本周（5 月 19 日当周）债市料将延续震荡格局。从资金面来 看，由于前期资金已充分宽松，央行"双降"后进入政策观察 期，且本周正值税期走款，资金面进一步宽松的概率较低。从 基本面来看，中美贸易摩擦阶段性缓和，市场对基本面预期有 所修复，但仍需经济数据验证，同时，后续中美贸易战走势仍 存在较 ...

Economic Performance - In April, the industrial added value grew by 6.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[4] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[7] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.0% year-on-year in the first four months, a decline of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[9] External Environment Impact - The slowdown in industrial growth is attributed to a tightening external economic environment, with export delivery value growth dropping by 6.8 percentage points to 0.9%[5] - Consumer confidence has been affected by external trade uncertainties, as indicated by a consumer confidence index of 87.5 points in March, down 0.9 points from the previous month[7] - The manufacturing PMI production index fell by 2.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity due to reduced external demand[5] Policy Response - The government has implemented counter-cyclical adjustment policies, including increasing the fiscal deficit ratio and issuing special bonds to support growth[2] - The "old-for-new" policy has positively impacted consumer spending, particularly in appliances and communication equipment, with retail sales in these categories showing double-digit growth[8] - Infrastructure investment, excluding electricity, grew by 5.8% year-on-year, reflecting the government's focus on stabilizing economic growth amid external pressures[12] Future Outlook - Industrial production growth is expected to decline further to around 5.3% in May due to ongoing external trade challenges[6] - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to accelerate, particularly in infrastructure, as the government continues to push for economic stability[12] - The overall macroeconomic resilience is anticipated to persist despite external pressures, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies[13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report On May 15, the liquidity tightened, the bond market continued to correct, the main indices of the convertible bond market declined following the equity market, most convertible bond issues fell, the yields of US Treasury bonds across all maturities generally dropped significantly, and the yields of 10-year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Bond Market News Domestic News - The General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council encourage financial institutions to participate in urban renewal and promote eligible projects to issue REITs, asset - backed securities, and corporate credit bonds [3]. - The first comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut in 2025 took effect, releasing about 1 trillion yuan in long - term liquidity [4]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasized strengthening the domestic cycle to promote stable and long - term economic development [4]. - The CSRC held the "5·15 National Investor Protection Publicity Day" event and plans to take multiple measures to boost investor confidence [5]. - The central bank and other departments plan to enrich the product types of the "Swap Connect" [6]. - Four departments jointly held a science and technology finance work exchange and promotion meeting, emphasizing support for scientific and technological innovation [7]. - The Supreme People's Court and the CSRC jointly issued a guiding opinion to support the high - quality development of the capital market [8]. International News - Powell said the Fed is re - evaluating key parts of the 2020 monetary policy framework, and long - term interest rates may rise [9]. - US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1% month - on - month, slightly exceeding expectations, but consumer spending showed signs of weakness [10]. Commodities - International crude oil futures prices and natural gas prices fell on May 15. WTI June crude futures dropped 2.42% to $61.62/barrel, Brent July crude futures fell 2.36% to $64.53/barrel, COMEX gold futures rose 1.66% to $3241.10/ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices dropped 2.86% to $3.366/ounce [12]. Fundamentals Open Market Operations On May 15, the central bank conducted 645 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 1586 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 1250 billion yuan of MLF maturing on the same day, the net capital withdrawal was 2191 billion yuan [14]. Funding Rates On May 15, despite the reserve requirement ratio cut, the liquidity tightened due to continuous net capital withdrawal by the central bank and large government bond payments. DR001 rose 0.24bp to 1.412%, and DR007 rose 0.74bp to 1.525% [15]. Bond Market Dynamics Interest - Rate Bonds - The yields of spot bonds: On May 15, affected by tightened liquidity and rumors about the central bank's non - conduct of outright reverse repurchases, the bond market continued to correct. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250004 rose 0.10bp to 1.6700%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250205 rose 0.55bp to 1.7440% [18]. - Bond tendering: Details of the tendering results of various bonds on May 15 are provided, including the term, issuance scale, winning bid yield, and other information [20]. Credit Bonds - Secondary market trading anomalies: On May 15, the trading price of one industrial bond ("H1 碧地 02") and one urban investment bond ("20 豫辉债") deviated by more than 10%, falling more than 16% and 19% respectively [21][22]. - Credit bond events: Multiple companies had announcements related to bond - holder meetings, rating adjustments, and issuance cancellations [24]. Convertible Bonds - Equity and convertible bond indices: On May 15, the three major A - share indices fell, and the main convertible bond indices also declined. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index fell 0.44%, 0.38%, and 0.52% respectively [24]. - Convertible bond tracking: Some convertible bonds announced proposals for downward adjustment of conversion prices, non - adjustment of conversion prices, or potential early redemption conditions [28]. Overseas Bond Markets - US bond market: On May 15, the yields of US Treasury bonds across all maturities generally dropped significantly. The 2 - year yield fell 9bp to 3.96%, and the 10 - year yield fell 8bp to 4.45%. The yield spreads between 2 - year and 10 - year, and 5 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds widened [27][28]. - European bond market: The yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends. The yield of German 10 - year government bonds fell 6bp to 2.63%, while that of French 10 - year government bonds rose 2bp [31]. - Daily price changes of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds (as of the close on May 14): Information on the daily price changes, including credit entities, bond codes, bond balances, and yields, is provided [33].