Group 1: Macro Strategy and Policy Analysis - The "Beautiful America Act" emphasizes tax cuts for residents and businesses while neglecting social welfare and healthcare sectors [3][21] - The rising U.S. fiscal deficit is attributed to the shift from "balanced finance" to "functional finance," driven by slowing economic output and increasing government spending [3][21] - Support for the new act is divided among social groups, with small business owners and manufacturers in favor, while healthcare and clean energy sectors express dissatisfaction [3][22] - The market's reaction to the fiscal deficit has become "dull," indicating that the narrative around the impact of the deficit on broad national credit has lessened [3][24] Group 2: Industry Insights and Company Analysis - Zhejiang Shibao is a leading player in the automotive steering system industry, focusing on electric power steering systems and line control steering technology [9][32] - The company has seen a recovery in gross margin and net profit due to increased production capacity and the introduction of high-margin products [9][34] - Forecasts for Zhejiang Shibao's revenue from 2025 to 2027 are projected at 35.1 billion, 43.7 billion, and 52.0 billion CNY, with net profits expected to grow significantly [9][36] - Zhonggu Logistics is experiencing high demand in the container shipping market, with domestic shipping rates expected to rise due to capacity shortages [16][39] - The company is projected to maintain high dividend payouts, with a forecasted dividend ratio of 90% in 2025, resulting in a dividend yield of around 10% [16][40] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Developments - BeiGene's CDK4 inhibitor BGB-43395 is on track to become the second CDK4 inhibitor to enter the registration clinical phase, showing promising early efficacy signals [11][41] - The drug demonstrates higher selectivity compared to existing CDK4/6 inhibitors and has shown strong pharmacokinetic data [11][42] - Revenue forecasts for BeiGene from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 375.17 billion, 450.24 billion, and 540.34 billion CNY, with significant growth in net profit anticipated [11][43]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 7.32 HKD, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within six months [5][56]. Core Viewpoints - Zhejiang Shibao is positioned as a leading enterprise in the automotive steering system sector in China, with a focus on the development, manufacturing, and sales of steering systems. The company has successfully transitioned from traditional hydraulic systems to electric power steering (EPS) and is set to launch steer-by-wire systems in 2026 [1][4]. - The company has experienced significant revenue growth due to the introduction of new products and expansion into new customer segments, particularly with the rise of electric vehicles and new energy commercial vehicles [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Zhejiang Shibao, established in 1993, is a key player in the automotive steering system industry in China, transitioning from mechanical and hydraulic steering systems to electric power steering [12][18]. - The company serves a diverse customer base, with 82% of revenue from passenger vehicles and 18% from commercial vehicles in 2024 [19][22]. Development Stages - From 2015 to 2019, the company faced challenges with revenue growth not translating into profit due to high costs and quality issues affecting exports [2][25]. - Post-2020, the company capitalized on the recovery of the automotive market and expanded its customer base, leading to improved capacity utilization and profitability [2][40]. Embracing New Technologies - The company is actively pursuing steer-by-wire technology, which eliminates mechanical linkages and enhances vehicle design flexibility. Initial production is expected in 2026 [3][51]. - In the commercial vehicle sector, the company has developed electric hydraulic and electric steering systems, aligning with new emission standards and increasing demand for energy-efficient solutions [3][55]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 35.1 billion, 43.7 billion, and 52.0 billion CNY, with corresponding net profits of 2.7 billion, 3.8 billion, and 5.1 billion CNY, reflecting significant growth rates [4][56]. - The company is valued at a 20X PE ratio for 2025, leading to a target market capitalization of 55 billion HKD [4][56].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhonggu Logistics (603565) with an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6]. Core Views - The charter market remains highly prosperous, with significant increases in container ship rental prices since 2024, driven by geopolitical factors and trade conflicts, leading to fluctuations in international shipping rates [1]. - Domestic shipping rates are expected to rebound, with the domestic container shipping index (PDCI) projected to increase by 11% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with further growth anticipated in the latter half of the year [2]. - The company is expected to maintain high dividend payouts, with a projected payout ratio of 88% to 90% for 2023-2024, supported by strong cash inflows and reduced capital expenditures [3]. - The profit forecast for 2026 has been raised to a net profit of 24 billion yuan, while the 2025 forecast has been adjusted down to 22 billion yuan due to lower-than-expected domestic shipping rates [4]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue is projected to decline from 12,438.79 million yuan in 2023 to 11,258.25 million yuan in 2024, before rebounding to 12,476.03 million yuan in 2025 [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 1,717.28 million yuan in 2023 to 1,835.40 million yuan in 2024, then increase to 2,211.87 million yuan in 2025 [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.82 yuan in 2023 to 1.05 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 11.84 in 2023 to 9.19 in 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The CDK4 inhibitor BGB-43395 is progressing well and is expected to enter the registration clinical stage within the next 6-12 months, potentially becoming the second CDK4 inhibitor to do so globally [1][12]. - BGB-43395 demonstrates superior selectivity and efficacy compared to existing CDK4/6 inhibitors, with a significantly lower IC₅₀ of 126 nM, outperforming Pfizer's PF-07220060 by 4.3 times [2][17]. - The overall response rate for BGB-43395 is expected to improve with extended follow-up time, as historical data suggests that response rates for CDK4/6 inhibitors increase over time [3][28]. Financial Projections - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are estimated at 375.17 billion, 450.24 billion, and 540.34 billion CNY, respectively [4]. - Expected net profits for the same period are projected to be 7.03 billion, 40.10 billion, and 67.44 billion CNY [4]. - The company anticipates a significant revenue growth rate of 82.13% in 2023, followed by 56.19% in 2024, and a gradual decline to 20.01% by 2026 and 2027 [5][40]. Clinical Development - BGB-43395 is currently involved in three Phase I clinical trials, focusing on monotherapy and combination therapies for HR+/HER2- breast cancer [1][12]. - The drug has shown promising pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic profiles, with rapid absorption and a half-life of approximately 13 hours [21][19]. - Initial clinical data indicates a favorable tumor response rate, with a stable disease plus partial response rate of 67% to 83% across different dosing groups [3][31]. Market Context - The global market for CDK4/6 inhibitors is projected to exceed 18 billion USD, with a 17% year-over-year growth expected in 2024 [16]. - BGB-43395's high selectivity minimizes the risk of toxicity associated with CDK6 inhibition, positioning it favorably against competitors [16][2].

策略报告 | 投资策略 "反内卷"与"大而美" 证券研究报告 政策与大类资产配置周观察 海内外政策要闻 习近平主持召开中央财经委员会第六次会议。中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央 军委主席、中央财经委员会主任习近平7月1日上午主持召开中央财经委员会第六 次会议，研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题。统一 大市场方面，会议指出，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，基本要求是"五统一、 一开放"；海洋经济方面，会议强调推动海洋经济高质量发展。 李强总理出席金砖国家领导人第十七次会晤第一阶段会议。当地时间7月6日，国 务院总理李强在里约热内卢出席金砖国家领导人第十七次会晤第一阶段会议，就 "和平与安全、全球治理改革"议题发表讲话。金砖成员国领导人与会,巴西总统 卢拉主持会议。 美国国会微弱优势通过"大而美"法案。美国国会众议院7月3日下午以218票赞 成、214票反对的表决结果通过总统特朗普推动的"大而美"税收与支出法案。 该法案主要内容包括延长特朗普在其第一个任期内于2017年通过的企业和个人 减税措施，让小费和加班工资收入免于纳税等，其核心条款是降低企业税。 国内外政策导向分析 上周（6.30-7.4） ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for stocks, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [29]. Core Insights - Southbound capital continues to flow into Hong Kong stocks, with a net purchase of 12.68 billion yuan over the past week, totaling 692.1 billion yuan year-to-date, which is 93.02% of the total net purchase for 2024 [1]. - The report highlights the low valuation of internet companies, with projected P/E ratios for 2025 for major players like Alibaba at 11, Tencent at 16, and Meituan at 14 [1][3]. - In the AI sector, Kuaishou has launched a multimodal language model, achieving a score of 140 in the national math exam, while Ant Group has introduced an AI health application connecting over 5,000 hospitals [1]. - In the smart driving sector, Tesla has initiated public trial operations, while domestic companies like Li Auto and Xpeng are reaching critical milestones in high-level autonomous driving [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential of the IP economy in Hong Kong, with new consumer companies preparing for IPOs, suggesting structural opportunities during the summer consumption peak and earnings report windows [2]. Summary by Sections Southbound Capital - Southbound capital has shown a consistent inflow, with significant net purchases in key stocks such as China Construction Bank and SMIC [1][24]. AI Developments - Kuaishou's new AI model and Ant Group's health application are expected to enhance commercial applications in AI [1]. Smart Driving - The report notes the advancements in smart driving technologies and the expected market impact from new vehicle releases [2]. IP Economy - The report suggests focusing on high-growth IP-related companies as they prepare for IPOs and capitalize on seasonal demand [2].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The introduction of "current housing sales" policies in cities like Jingmen and Xinyang indicates a shift towards promoting immediate sales of newly developed properties, with a focus on improving market stability [1][10][12] - The trend of increasing current housing sales is driven by buyer preferences for tangible products and the accumulation of inventory due to slower investment growth, particularly in lower-tier cities [2][12] - The overall market sentiment is improving, with expectations of policy support to stabilize the real estate sector, suggesting a potential turning point in the industry [4][14] Summary by Sections 1. Current Housing Sales Policy - Jingmen is the only pilot city in Hubei for current housing sales, with policies requiring new land sales to prioritize this sales model starting January 1, 2026 [1][12] - The policy aims to enhance market stability and reduce inventory, with a notable decrease in available inventory and a reduction in the de-stocking cycle [1][12] 2. Market Overview - New housing transactions for the week totaled 3.82 million square meters, showing a year-on-year decline of 9.65%, but an improvement of 1.33 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][17] - The second-hand housing market saw transactions of 1.75 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 10.38%, indicating a weakening trend [3][26] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt relief and policy support, as well as leading companies with product advantages and regional firms with improving market shares [4][14] - Specific companies recommended for investment include Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments, among others [4][14][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][23]. Core Views - The company has seen a year-on-year increase in both order volume and processing volume, highlighting investment opportunities in the steel structure sector at a relatively low point [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the supply-side reforms in the steel industry, which may lead to improved profitability as steel prices rise [3]. - The company is focusing on intelligent transformation and has invested in advanced manufacturing technologies, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [4]. Summary by Sections Orders and Production - In the first half of 2025, the company signed new orders totaling 14.38 billion, a slight increase of 0.17% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, new orders amounted to 7.328 billion, a decrease of 0.85% year-on-year. The steel structure production for the first half of 2025 reached 2.3625 million tons, up 12.19% year-on-year, with Q2 production at 1.3134 million tons, an increase of 10.56% year-on-year [1][2]. Pricing and Market Trends - The company has seen an increase in the number of large contracts (over 10,000 tons) from 6 in Q2 2021 to 18 in Q2 2025. The average price per ton for new orders in Q2 2025 ranged from 4,535 to 8,494 yuan, indicating a 5.11% increase in average price compared to Q2 2024 [2]. - Steel prices have stabilized between 3,160 and 3,370 yuan per ton, with an average of 3,233 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 15.2% [2]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 868.65 million, 1,015.91 million, and 1,222.03 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.14, 12.09, and 10.05 [5][4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 21,514.36 million in 2024 to 33,629.99 million in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14.66% [5]. Intelligent Transformation - The company has established a dedicated research team for intelligent manufacturing and has invested in various advanced production technologies, including automated cutting and welding equipment, which are expected to enhance production efficiency [4].

Group 1 - The overall industry sentiment shows an upward trend in coal, machinery, electronics, food and beverage, textile and apparel, non-bank financials, public utilities, and retail sectors, while downward trends are observed in power equipment, pharmaceuticals, light manufacturing, home appliances, automotive, banking, real estate, and environmental protection sectors [2][28] - Key industries to focus on for the next four weeks include automotive parts, automation equipment, specialized equipment, components, semiconductors, optical optoelectronics, commercial vehicles, engineering machinery, general equipment, automotive services, electronic chemicals II, papermaking, television broadcasting II, gaming II, and motors II, with new additions being automotive parts, semiconductors, optical optoelectronics, and engineering machinery [2][28] - Notable industry data as of July 6, 2025, includes a significant increase in daily sales of passenger cars by 18.44%, while the operating rate of semi-steel tires decreased by 7.64 percentage points; liquid oxygen ex-factory prices rose by 4.65%; DRAM prices increased by 2.19%; white cardboard prices fell by 2.38%; and prices of ternary materials 5 series rose by 0.89% while lithium hexafluorophosphate prices decreased by 2.32% [29] Group 2 - The convertible bond market experienced a decline this week, with the China Securities convertible bond index rising by 1.21%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange convertible bond index by 1.28%, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange convertible bond index by 1.08% [4] - The weighted average conversion value of the convertible bonds increased to 94.08 yuan, up by 2.58 yuan from the previous week, while the overall market weighted average conversion premium rate decreased by 2.77 percentage points to 45.56% [4] - The report suggests focusing on convertible bond downshift opportunities, particularly in the context of recent downshifts in convertible bonds like Caitong and Jing'ao, which have seen around 4% increases in their prices [4] Group 3 - The banking sector remains stable and presents investment value, with bank stock valuations reaching recent highs and dividend yields significantly lower than in previous years, yet still offering substantial excess returns compared to 10-year government bond yields [9] - The report highlights the ongoing reform of rural banks, with over 50 rural banks being merged or restructured this year, which may lead to a slight increase in overall non-performing loan ratios for state-owned banks [5][9] - Recommendations for quality regional small banks include Chengdu Bank and Changshu Bank, while major state-owned banks recommended are Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and Postal Savings Bank of China [9] Group 4 - The beverage and dairy market is experiencing significant growth, with the global ready-to-drink soft drink market projected to grow from $934.5 billion in 2019 to $1,131.7 billion in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 3.9% [21] - The coconut water industry is expanding rapidly, with the market share of IF in China reaching 33.9%, making it the leading player in the coconut water beverage market [21][23] - IFBH successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with its stock price increasing by 42.09% on the first day and 20.38% on the second day, and projected revenues for 2024 are expected to grow by 80.29% [21][23] Group 5 - The traditional business of Jingda Co. is steadily growing, with the production of enameled wire increasing from 1.311 million tons in 2012 to 1.788 million tons in 2022, and the global sales expected to reach $1.065 billion by 2030 [18][39] - The company is well-positioned in the automotive and electronics wire markets, benefiting from the increasing production and sales of automobiles and the rising level of electronicization [18][39] - The demand for AI servers is driving the growth of the silver-plated copper market, with the global AI server market projected to grow from $19.5 billion in 2022 to $34.7 billion in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 17.3% [39]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the liquidity and the central bank's monetary policy stance have become the focus of the market. The new narrative logic of liquidity in the first half of the year may also form the new normal in the second half, including the continuous transformation of the monetary policy framework, the continuous pressure on banks' net interest margins, and the need to balance multiple policy goals [1][3][9] - The policy side still focuses on smoothing the monetary policy transmission mechanism and promoting the decline of the comprehensive social financing cost in the second half of the year, and needs to balance "stable growth" and "risk prevention" [3][4][89] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. The "Unexpected" and "Expected" of the Funding Situation in the First Half of the Year - In the first half of 2025, the funding situation changed from the long - term stable and abundant state in the second half of last year. The first quarter was tight, and the second quarter gradually switched to a stable and balanced state. The change was due to the dynamic switching of policy target priorities and the evolution of the monetary policy framework [11][12] - The first half of the year can be divided into four stages based on factors such as central bank's open - market operations, policy focus switching, and funding rate trends. Each stage has different characteristics in terms of funding rates, central bank's operations, and market supply - demand patterns [15] 2. Some New Narratives of Liquidity in 2025 2.1 Framework "Variation" - The monetary policy framework is further transforming to price - based regulation, clarifying the main policy interest rates and weakening the policy attributes of other prices. The MLF has faded out of its medium - term policy interest rate attribute [36] - The policy aims to smooth the interest rate transmission mechanism, strengthen the effect of deposit interest rate adjustment, and promote the decline of the real financing cost. It also conducts policy communication and expectation guidance with the market in a timely manner, and the structural tools are precisely targeted [34][37] 2.2 The "Actions" and "Inactions" of Monetary Policy - **Supportive Stance Remains Unchanged**: The monetary policy needs to balance multiple goals, and the central bank strengthens communication with the market to correct the market's over - trading expectations of monetary easing [39] - **"Inactions" in the First Quarter**: The central bank's investment was relatively restrained in the first quarter, focusing on preventing capital idling, interest rate risks, and stabilizing the exchange rate, which was also reflected in the statements of the monetary policy meetings [43][45] - **"Actions" and "Inactions" in the Second Quarter**: In the second half of March, the supply - demand pattern of the funding situation improved. The central bank increased its support, but still needed to balance "stable growth" and "risk prevention", which was also reflected in the statements of the monetary policy meetings [47][50] 2.3 Market "Echoes" - **Funding Rates are "Rigid" and Once Faced "Negative Carry"**: In the first quarter, the funding rates were at a high level with high volatility, and the bond market had a prominent "negative carry" phenomenon. The yield curve changed from "bear - flat" to "bear - steep", corresponding to the marginal changes in institutional behavior [53][54] - **Banks' Liability - Side Pressure is Concerned, and Funding Stratification is Weakened**: In the first quarter, the large - scale banks' fund lending decreased, and the liquidity supply - demand contradiction was magnified. In the second quarter, the banks' liability - side pressure was generally controllable, and the funding stratification was mainly seasonally high [69][77] - **The Bond Market Fluctuated More, and Banks Realized Floating Profits at the End of the Quarter**: In the first quarter, banks increased their bond - selling efforts at the end of the quarter to realize floating profits. In the second quarter, the pressure on banks to sell bonds to realize profits was alleviated [81][84] 3. Grasp the New Normal in the Second Half of the Year 3.1 Smooth the Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism and Reduce Banks' Liability Costs - The policy side will continue to smooth the policy interest rate transmission mechanism, enhance financial institutions' independent pricing ability, and strengthen the linkage between asset - side and liability - side interest rate adjustments [89] - Attention should be paid to banks' interest margin pressure, and banks should be guided to maintain reasonable asset returns and liability costs through market - based methods [90] 3.2 Dynamic Balance between "Stable Growth" and "Risk Prevention" - **Coordination of Various Policy Tools**: In terms of quantitative tools, if there is a reserve requirement ratio cut, the third quarter may be a good observation period, with a range of 25 - 50BP. Otherwise, the central bank may increase the investment of outright reverse repurchases, MLF, or restart treasury bond trading operations. In terms of price - based tools, there may be a possibility of an interest rate cut within the year, with a range of 10 - 25BP, but the timing is uncertain [94][95] - **Outlook on Funding and Certificate of Deposit Prices**: It is expected that the high - volatility market in the first quarter will not reappear, and the funding rates may continue the state of low - volatility and rigidity in the second quarter. If the interest rate cut occurs in the second half of the year, it is expected to drive down the certificate of deposit rates; otherwise, they may remain volatile [4]