Group 1: Market Insights - The report analyzes the current valuation distribution of the A-share market compared to previous bull markets, indicating that during bull markets, the market acts as a "voting machine" while in bear markets, it functions as a "weighing machine" [1][11][12] - The valuation dispersion coefficient for the entire A-share market is currently at 0.805, which is above the historical median of 0.794, suggesting a general upward trend in the market [12][14] - The report identifies a continuous decline in the proportion of undervalued stocks since September 2024, with the P/B distribution curve shifting downwards over time [33][34] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - In July, fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year increase, with tax revenue rising by 5%, marking a new high for the year, while non-tax revenue continued to decline [43][44] - The report notes a slight cooling in land transactions, with government land use rights revenue dropping to 7.16% year-on-year in July [50][51] - Industrial production indices have shown signs of recovery, particularly in sectors like soda ash and polyester filament, indicating a rebound in industrial activity [57][58] Group 3: International Economic Context - The report highlights that market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Powell, with a 75% probability of a 25 basis point cut by September 2025 [4][61] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, are monitored as they may impact market conditions [4][61][62] Group 4: Industry Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: breakthroughs in AI technology, recovery in consumer stock valuations, and the rise of undervalued dividend stocks [5][37] - It emphasizes the importance of the AI industry’s progress, which is crucial for the performance of undervalued dividend stocks [5][37]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a bullish market sentiment, suggesting that investors should continue to accumulate positions during dips as long as the market maintains a positive profit effect [1][2][3] - The current profit effect value is reported at 5.22%, indicating a strong market environment, and the recommendation is to hold high positions until the profit effect turns negative [2][10] - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including innovative pharmaceuticals and securities insurance, which are expected to benefit from ongoing upward trends [2][10] Market Overview - The Wind All A index is currently in an upward trend, with the short-term moving average (20-day) at 5752 points and the long-term moving average (120-day) at 5271 points, resulting in a distance of 9.12% between the two [2][10] - The overall market saw significant gains, with the Wind All A index rising by 3.87% last week, and small-cap stocks (CSI 2000) increasing by 3.23% [1][9] - The report highlights strong performance in the telecommunications and electronics sectors, with telecommunications stocks rising by 10.47% [1][9] Investment Strategy - The report recommends maintaining an 80% position in absolute return products based on the Wind All A index, as the current PE ratio is at the 85th percentile, indicating a moderate valuation level [3][10] - The focus for mid-term investments should be on sectors that are expected to experience a turnaround, particularly innovative pharmaceuticals and securities insurance, alongside policy-driven sectors like photovoltaics and chemicals [2][10] - The Two Beta model continues to recommend technology sectors, specifically military computing and battery technologies, while short-term signals suggest a potential rebound for gold stocks after adjustments [2][10]

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 净利润断层策略本周绝对收益 3.69% 戴维斯双击策略 戴维斯双击即指以较低的市盈率买入具有成长潜力的股票，待成长性显现、 市盈率相应提高后卖出，获得乘数效应的收益，即 EPS 和 PE 的"双击"。 策略在 2010-2017 年回测期内实现了 26.45%的年化收益，超额基准 21.08%。 今年以来，策略累计绝对收益 44.43%，超额中证 500 指数 25.27%，本周策 略超额中证 500 指数-1.58%。本期组合于 2025-05-06 日开盘调仓，截至 2025-08-22 日，本期组合超额基准指数 9.91%。 净利润断层策略 净利润断层策略是基本面与技术面共振双击下的选股模式，其核心有两点： "净利润"，指通常意义上的业绩超预期；"断层"，指盈余公告后的首个交 易日股价出现向上跳空，该跳空通常代表市场对盈余报告的认可程度。 策略在 2010 年至今取得了年化 29.13%的收益，年化超额基准 26.45%。本 年组合累计绝对收益 48.09%，超额基准指数 28.93%，本周绝对收益 3.69%， 超额收益-0.18%。 沪深 300 ...

贵金属：杰克逊霍尔会议鲍威尔转鸽，降息预期再起利好金价上行。截至8 月 21 日，国内99.95%黄金市 场均价 767.33 元/克，较上周均价下跌 1.72%，上海现货 1#白银市场均价 9141 元/千克，较上周均价下 跌 0.75%。周初美国劳工部公布的 7 月 PPI数据远超市场预期，市场对美联储的降息预期迅速降温，随后， 美俄乌谈判有望进一步推进，避险情绪有所缓解。美元走强、美联储政策不确定性、地缘政治信号以及宏 观数据波动，令金银价格承压。COMEX 金银主力分别运行在 3350-3400 和 37.5-38.0 美元/盎司之间， 沪银在9150-9250 元/千克区间内窄幅震荡，沪金主力在 775 元/克附近徘徊。建议关注：中国黄金国际， 山东黄金，招金矿业，中金黄金，赤峰黄金，山金国际，湖南黄金，株冶集团等。 小金属：钨价整体上调。截至8 月 21 日，65 度黑钨精矿均价在 22.4 万元/吨，较上周上调 2.35 万元/吨； 仲钨酸铵在 32.45 万元/吨，较上周上调 3.1 万元/吨，70 钨铁均价在 32.5 万元/吨，较上周上调 2.5 万元/ 吨，碳化钨粉在470 元/千克，较 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [6][16]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in H1 2025, with revenue of 3.478 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.75%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 266 million yuan, up 11.66% year-on-year [1]. - The beauty segment continues to grow, with H1 2025 revenue of 747 million yuan, a 32.05% increase year-on-year, while the personal care segment saw revenue of 1.590 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.10% year-on-year [3]. - The company is consolidating its core brand advantages, with significant growth in its leading brands, such as Liushen and Yuze, and a strong recovery in the herbal brand Bai Caoshu [4]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the gross margin was 63.37%, an increase of 2.24 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 7.64%, up 0.47 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company expects revenue for 2025-2027 to be 6.238 billion, 6.868 billion, and 7.638 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 374 million, 491 million, and 573 million yuan [4]. Brand Development - The first-tier brands, Liushen and Yuze, have shown significant online growth, with Liushen launching a new portable mosquito repellent product that topped sales on Tmall [4]. - The second-tier brand Bai Caoshu has seen over 50% revenue growth in H1 2025, driven by successful product launches and promotions [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 184.01 CNY, indicating approximately 20% upside potential from the current price of 150.11 CNY [7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the snack retail sector, with significant growth potential in the discount store format, which is becoming a new trend in the market [1][5]. - The snack retail market in China is projected to grow from 211 billion CNY in 2019 to over 1000 billion CNY by 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 40% from 2019 to 2023 and an expected CAGR of 18% from 2023 to 2027 [1][35]. - The company has rapidly expanded its store count to over 15,000, establishing a strong competitive position alongside its main rival [1][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Rapid Growth in Snack Retail Business - The company, founded in 2011, initially focused on edible fungi and has since diversified into the snack retail sector, achieving significant revenue growth [2][15]. - In 2024, the snack retail business is expected to generate revenue of 31.79 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 262.94% [15][26]. - The company has integrated five major snack brands and is actively developing its private label products to enhance profitability [4][5]. 2. Market Trends and Opportunities - The snack retail channel is still in a growth phase, with significant market expansion opportunities remaining [35][36]. - The company is transitioning towards a full-category discount store model, launching "Lai You Pin" and "Hao Xiang Lai" stores to diversify its product offerings beyond snacks [5][49]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with major players like Lele and Aoleqi also entering the discount store space, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards value-oriented shopping [44][45]. 3. Financial Performance and Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 54.15 billion CNY in 2025, with a net profit of 773.12 million CNY, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [6][4]. - The EBITDA is expected to reach 2.74 billion CNY in 2025, with a significant improvement in profit margins due to economies of scale and cost management [6][4]. - The report highlights a decrease in expense ratios, with the net profit margin improving from -1.57% in 2023 to 3.59% in Q1 2025 [29][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [4]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated a stable performance with a revenue of 400 million yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.1%, and a net profit of 50 million yuan, down 9.1% year-on-year. However, for the first half of 2025, revenue increased by 9.3% to 890 million yuan, and net profit rose by 7.4% to 100 million yuan [1]. - The company is expanding its market presence in non-US regions such as Europe and Southeast Asia to mitigate market risks, while its operations in the US have returned to normal [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 19.1%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating stable profitability [1]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company distributed cash dividends amounting to 44 million yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 43% [1]. - The revenue breakdown for the first half of 2025 shows pet pads generating 760 million yuan (up 7.3% year-on-year), pet diapers at 70 million yuan (up 40.6%), and non-woven fabric at 40 million yuan (up 14.6%) [1]. - The company has established a significant production capacity, with annual production of 4.6 billion pet pads and 200 million pet diapers domestically, alongside a new overseas capacity in Cambodia [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has become a key supplier for several well-known multinational companies, leveraging its scale, product quality, and production management capabilities [2]. - The domestic market for pet hygiene products is rapidly growing, and the company is actively building its own brands to capitalize on this trend [3]. - The report highlights the company's long-term advantages in customer and channel development, supported by its overseas production base and domestic brand growth [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market is currently experiencing a valuation recovery. Measures such as large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins are expected to boost domestic demand, while export growth may decline. A weak resonance between the domestic economic fundamentals and capital flows is expected to gradually emerge [30]. - Considering the impact of refinancing policies, the subsequent issuance pressure of convertible bonds is not expected to be high. As the stock market recovers, the inflow of incremental funds into convertible bonds has driven the valuation to a relatively high level in history. Attention should be paid to the risk of valuation correction. In terms of terms and conditions, it is recommended to continue to focus on the space for lower revision games, be vigilant against the risk of early redemption, and appropriately pay attention to short-term game opportunities for near-maturity convertible bonds [31]. - Industries worthy of attention include popular themes such as AI computing power, humanoid robots, intelligent driving, low-altitude economy, data elements, and satellite Internet of Things; repair opportunities in low-position science and technology growth sectors such as semiconductors and innovative drugs; pro-cyclical and domestic demand sectors such as real estate, chemicals, and consumer electronics whose prosperity is gradually recovering; industries with both export advantages and domestic demand growth potential such as automobiles, home appliances, and engineering machinery; central state-owned enterprises represented by "China-headquartered" companies, the "Belt and Road" theme, and high-dividend sectors such as public utilities, petrochemicals, and precious metals under the Chinese characteristic valuation system; and the military industry driven by the resonance of hedging demand and industrial demand cycles [31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special and Outlook 3.1.1. The "Diverse States" of Near-Maturity Convertible Bonds - As of August 22, 2025, 82 convertible bonds have been delisted this year, including 20 that have reached maturity. Among the matured and delisted convertible bonds, 6 have an actual maturity payment ratio of less than 1%, 3 have a payment ratio of over 90% (Nuclear Construction Convertible Bond, Haoke Convertible Bond, and Intelligent Convertible Bond), and the rest have a maturity payment ratio concentrated between 20% - 60% [10]. - The paths of promoting conversion and maturity payment of convertible bonds that have reached maturity this year vary. For example, the issuance amount of CITIC Convertible Bond is 40 billion yuan, but the final payment ratio is less than 1%. Its methods of promoting conversion are diverse, including the controlling shareholder's premium conversion and conversion during periods of negative premium rate due to the positive stock's "abnormal movement." Since December 2024, with the continuous rise of bank stocks, the conversion value of CITIC Convertible Bond has been significantly higher than the maturity value, accelerating the conversion process [13][14]. - In contrast, the Nuclear Construction Convertible Bond, a large central enterprise convertible bond, has a maturity payment ratio as high as 99.27%. The company's main business has a stable profit margin, and it has a relatively weak willingness to promote conversion, resulting in a smooth maturity payment [19]. - Most private enterprise convertible bonds (11 out of 18) have proposed to lower the conversion price during their tenure. However, due to factors such as weak performance and poor stock price performance of the underlying stocks, large-scale conversion has not been achieved. For example, Dafeng Convertible Bond achieved a large-scale conversion through a high negative premium rate before maturity, alleviating the payment pressure to some extent [21]. - As of August 22, there are still 14 convertible bonds approaching maturity this year. Some companies have a strong willingness to promote conversion, such as Jinneng Convertible Bond, which recently lowered its conversion price. It is recommended to analyze the company's willingness to promote conversion based on factors such as company attributes, debt repayment pressure, and research and communication, and pay attention to negative premium rate conversion and lower revision games during the conversion promotion process [28]. 3.1.2. Weekly Review and Market Outlook - This week, the A-share market showed an overall upward trend with active trading, and technology sectors led the market. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all rose to varying degrees, with the ChiNext Index performing particularly well. Sectors such as communication, comprehensive, and computer led the gains, while real estate and petrochemical sectors declined slightly [29]. - In the convertible bond market, considering the impact of refinancing policies, the subsequent issuance pressure is not expected to be high. As the stock market recovers, the inflow of incremental funds has driven the valuation to a relatively high level in history. Attention should be paid to the risk of valuation correction. It is recommended to continue to focus on the space for lower revision games, be vigilant against the risk of early redemption, and appropriately pay attention to short-term game opportunities for near-maturity convertible bonds [31]. 3.2. Weekly Tracking of the Convertible Bond Market 3.2.1. The Equity Market Rose, with Communication, Electronics, and Comprehensive Sectors Leading - This week, major equity market indices rose. The Wind All A Index rose 3.87%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.49%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.57%, and the ChiNext Index rose 5.85%. The market style was more inclined towards large-cap growth stocks. Among small-cap indices, the CSI 1000 Index rose 3.45%, and the STAR 50 Index rose 13.31% [35]. - All 31 Shenwan industry indices rose this week, with communication, electronics, and comprehensive sectors leading the market with increases of 10.84%, 8.95%, and 8.25% respectively [38]. 3.2.2. The Convertible Bond Market Rose Significantly, and the Median of the 100-yuan Premium Rate Increased - This week, the convertible bond market rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.83%, the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 2.77%, the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 2.96%, the Wind Convertible Bond Equal-Weighted Index rose 3.20%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Weighted Index rose 2.86%. The average daily trading volume of convertible bonds increased, with an average daily trading volume of 94.06 billion yuan, an increase of 0.975 billion yuan compared to last week, and a total weekly trading volume of 470.3 billion yuan [40]. - At the industry level of convertible bonds, 29 industries rose, with the social services, beauty care, and computer industries ranking among the top three in terms of gains, with increases of 9.16%, 7.01%, and 5.28% respectively. At the corresponding underlying stock level, 26 industries rose, and 3 industries fell. The computer, electronics, and food and beverage industries led the gains, with increases of 10.14%, 8.92%, and 7.29% respectively [43]. - Most individual convertible bonds rose this week (414 out of 450). After excluding the closing data of newly listed convertible bonds, the top five convertible bonds in terms of weekly gains were Dongshi Convertible Bond (social services, 90.12%), Jintong Convertible Bond (non-ferrous metals, 22.92%), Huayi Convertible Bond (pharmaceutical biology, 19.84%), Weice Convertible Bond (electronics, 18.48%), and Dongjie Convertible Bond (machinery and equipment, 17.05%). The top five in terms of weekly trading volume were Outong Convertible Bond (power equipment, 23.791 billion yuan), Dayuan Convertible Bond (machinery and equipment, 23.686 billion yuan), Saili Convertible Bond (pharmaceutical biology, 12.55 billion yuan), Dongjie Convertible Bond (machinery and equipment, 12.492 billion yuan), and Huahong Convertible Bond (environmental protection, 11.35 billion yuan) [45]. - In terms of price, the number of absolute low-price convertible bonds decreased, and the median price of convertible bonds increased significantly. The number of convertible bonds with an absolute price of less than 110 yuan decreased by 3 compared to last week, the number in the 110 - 130 yuan range decreased by 40, the number in the 130 - 150 yuan range increased by 17, the number in the 150 - 200 yuan range increased by 14, and the number of those with a price greater than 200 yuan increased by 6. As of this Friday, the median price of the entire market's convertible bonds closed at 135.19 yuan, an increase of 3.03 yuan compared to last weekend [47]. - This week, the weighted conversion value of the entire market increased, and the premium rate decreased. The weighted average conversion value of the entire market based on the remaining bond balance was 102.18 yuan, an increase of 3.03 yuan compared to last weekend. The weighted conversion premium rate of the entire market was 40.64%, a decrease of 1.05 percentage points compared to last weekend. The 100-yuan parity premium rate (weighted average) was 29.42%, an increase of 4.92 percentage points compared to last weekend, and the median was 33.05%, an increase of 2.50 percentage points compared to last weekend. Currently, the 100-yuan parity premium rate is above the 50th percentile since 2017. The median implied volatility of the entire market was 41.78%, an increase of 3.91 percentage points compared to last weekend, and the pure bond premium rate of debt-biased convertible bonds was 14.50%, an increase of 3.55 percentage points compared to last weekend [51]. 3.2.3. High-Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 3.2.3.1. Classification Valuation Changes - This week, the valuation of balanced convertible bonds slightly declined, while that of equity-biased convertible bonds increased significantly. The valuation of convertible bonds with a parity of 110 - 120 yuan decreased, while the valuation of other parity convertible bonds increased, with those in the 0 - 80 yuan and 100 - 110 yuan ranges increasing more significantly. The valuation of AAA, A+, and A and below convertible bonds increased, while that of AA+, AA, and AA- convertible bonds decreased. The valuation of small-cap and small - medium-cap convertible bonds increased, while that of medium-cap and large-cap convertible bonds decreased [59]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity-biased and balanced convertible bonds have both rebounded from their lows. As of this Friday, the conversion premium rate of equity-biased convertible bonds is above the 35th percentile since 2017, and that of balanced convertible bonds is below the 50th percentile since 2017 [59]. 3.2.3.2. Market Index Performance - This week, all convertible bonds of different ratings rose. AAA convertible bonds rose 1.77%, AA+ convertible bonds rose 3.57%, AA convertible bonds rose 3.67%, AA- convertible bonds rose 2.69%, A+ convertible bonds rose 3.67%, and A and below convertible bonds rose 2.55%. Since 2023, AAA convertible bonds have recorded a 22.35% return, AA+ convertible bonds 15.24%, AA convertible bonds 21.33%, AA- convertible bonds 29.60%, A+ convertible bonds 32.92%, and A and below convertible bonds 34.83%. Historically, high-rated AAA convertible bonds have shown stable performance, while low-rated convertible bonds have shown weaker downside resistance and greater rebound strength [74]. - This week, all convertible bonds of different scales rose. Small-cap convertible bonds rose 2.84%, small - medium-cap convertible bonds rose 2.66%, medium-cap convertible bonds rose 3.86%, and large-cap convertible bonds rose 2.29%. Since 2023, small-cap convertible bonds have recorded a 34.82% return, small - medium-cap convertible bonds 29.29%, medium-cap convertible bonds 26.30%, and large-cap convertible bonds 19.79% [74]. 3.3. Tracking of Convertible Bond Supply and Terms 3.3.1. This Week's Primary Market Issuance Plans - This week, there were no newly listed convertible bonds, and there were 3 convertible bonds that had been issued but not yet listed. Among the convertible bonds to be listed, Weidao Convertible Bond and Jinwei Convertible Bond both have a scale of over 1 billion yuan. This week, there were 12 primary approvals (from August 18 to August 23, 2025), with no convertible bonds approved for registration by the CSRC. Three convertible bonds, including Dingjie Shuzhi (828 million yuan), Lianrui Xincai (720 million yuan), and Jinpan Technology (1.672 billion yuan), were accepted by the exchange [80]. - From the beginning of 2023 to August 22, 2025, the total number of planned convertible bonds was 93, with a total scale of 150.36 billion yuan. Among them, the number of convertible bonds approved by the board of directors was 19, with a total scale of 28.493 billion yuan; the number approved by the general meeting of shareholders was 36, with a total scale of 64.672 billion yuan; the number accepted by the exchange was 30, with a total scale of 41.847 billion yuan; the number approved by the listing committee was 4, with a total scale of 8.979 billion yuan; and the number approved for registration by the CSRC was 4, with a total scale of 6.37 billion yuan [81]. 3.3.2. Lower Revision and Redemption Clauses - This week, 8 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger a lower revision, 4 convertible bonds announced that they would not be revised downward, and Qifan Convertible Bond proposed a lower revision, with no convertible bonds announcing the result of the lower revision [84][87]. - This week, 12 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger early redemption, 7 convertible bonds announced that they would not be redeemed early, and 6 convertible bonds, including Chongda Zhuan 2, Dayuan Convertible Bond, Haitai Convertible Bond, Sheyan Convertible Bond, Dongjie Convertible Bond, and Rongtai Convertible Bond, announced early redemption [86][88][89]. - As of the end of this week, there was 1 convertible bond still in the put option declaration period and 9 convertible bonds still in the company's capital reduction and settlement declaration period. Attention should be paid to the price changes of convertible bonds and the marginal changes in the company's tendency for lower revision [91].

公司报告 | 半年报点评 3）其他：①投资收益：25 上半年 3.32 亿元，同比+116.2%，其中对联营 企业和合营企业的投资收益为 2.4 亿元，同比增加 1.68 亿元。②营业外支 出：25 上半年 1.86 亿元，同比+48.8%，主要由于子公司神火国贸确认纠纷 和解损失及 25 上半年发生的罚款和滞纳金。 投资建议：我们调整铝价和煤价假设，预计 25/26/27 年公司归母净利润 51.6/57.1/63.7 亿元（前值为 55.7/67.6/71.1 亿元），对应 PE 8.2/7.4/6.7x。 近期随着宏观情绪向好叠加旺季预期，我们预计铝价仍有上行空间，且下 半年煤炭板块盈利有望回升，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：项目投产进度不及预期风险；原材料和能源价格波动风险；宏 观经济波动风险。 | 财务数据和估值 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 37,625.08 | 38,372.66 | 41,128.71 | 41,263.47 | 42,15 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the equity market continued to rise strongly, and the bond market remained highly volatile. However, from the perspective of institutional behavior, the sentiment of trading desks stabilized significantly in the second half of the week, enhancing the bond market's resilience to pressure. The selling pressure from funds on interest - rate bonds was concentrated in the first two days, and they turned to net buyers in the second half of the week. The purchasing power of allocation desks has weakened. The focus in the future is still on the redemption pressure and sentiment improvement of trading desks [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overall Sentiment: Bond Market Vitality Index Declined - The bond market vitality index declined this week. As of August 22, the bond market vitality index dropped 12 pcts to 17% compared to August 15, and the 5D - MA decreased 4 pcts to 23% [10]. - Indicators of rising bond market vitality include the median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds (the rolling two - year percentile increased from 98.3% to 99.7%), the excess level of the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio compared to the average of the past four years (the rolling two - year percentile increased from 24% to 26%), and the implied tax rate of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond (inverse) (the rolling two - year percentile increased from 4% to 8%) [1]. - Indicators of falling bond market vitality include the trading volume of the active 10Y CDB bond / the balance of 9 - 10Y CDB bonds (the rolling two - year percentile decreased from 86% to 38%) and the turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds (the rolling two - year percentile decreased from 55% to 44%) [1]. 3.2 Institutional Behavior: Trading Desks Were Net Sellers, and the Purchasing Power of Allocation Desks Weakened 3.2.1 Buying and Selling Strength and Bond Selection - In the cash bond market this week, the order of net buying strength was large banks > insurance > other product types > wealth management > overseas institutions and others > rural financial institutions, and the order of net selling strength was funds > city commercial banks > securities firms > money market funds > joint - stock banks. For ultra - long bonds (bonds with a maturity of over 15 years), the order of net buying strength was insurance > rural commercial banks > city commercial banks > wealth management > overseas institutions and others, and the order of net selling strength was funds > large banks > joint - stock banks > securities firms > other product types [20]. - The main bond types of various institutions are as follows: large banks mainly focus on 3 - 5Y interest - rate bonds; rural commercial banks have no obvious main bond types; insurance mainly focuses on 7 - 10Y credit bonds; funds have no obvious main bond types; wealth management mainly focuses on 1 - 3Y credit bonds; other product types mainly focus on 3 - 5Y interest - rate bonds and 7 - 10Y other bonds [2]. 3.2.2 Trading Desks: Interest - Rate Bond Funds Significantly Increased Duration, Credit Bond Funds Slightly Increased Duration, and High - Performing Bond Funds Made Smaller Duration Adjustments - As of August 22, the mean and median durations of the full - sample medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased by 0.05 years and 0.08 years respectively compared to August 15, reaching 4.61 years and 4.48 years, and were at the 99.1% and 99.7% rolling two - year percentiles respectively. Among them, the median durations of pure interest - rate bond funds, interest - rate bond funds, and credit bond funds increased by 0.42 years, 0.23 years, and 0.03 years respectively, reaching 5.85 years, 5.47 years, and 4.05 years. The median durations of high - performing interest - rate bond funds and credit bond funds increased by 0.33 years and 0.11 years respectively, reaching 6.87 years and 4.65 years [39]. 3.2.3 Allocation Desks: Wealth Management Extended Duration in the Secondary Market, Rural Commercial Banks and Insurance Deployed Ultra - Long Bonds - **Differentiated Primary Subscription Demand for Treasury Bonds and Policy Financial Bonds, Declining Demand for Ultra - Long Bonds**: This week, the primary subscription demand for treasury bonds and policy financial bonds showed differentiation, with the demand for ultra - long bonds declining. The weighted average full - coverage multiples of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds decreased from 3.30 times to 2.87 times and increased from 2.87 times to 2.98 times respectively compared to the previous week. Among them, the weighted average full - coverage multiples of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds with a maturity of 10Y and above decreased from 4.08 times to 2.69 times and from 2.62 times to 2.51 times respectively [52]. - **Large Banks: Maintained Strong Net Buying of 1 - 3Y Treasury Bonds since August**: Since the beginning of this year, the issuance of government bonds has been fast and the duration has been long. Large banks' net selling of cash bonds in the secondary market in the first half of the year was significantly stronger than in the same period of previous years. From July to August, large banks increased their net buying. As of August 22, the cumulative net selling of cash bonds for the whole year was lower than the levels in the same period of 2022 and 2023. In terms of short - term treasury bonds, large banks increased their net buying of treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 1Y since June, but the cumulative net buying since the beginning of the year was still much lower than the level in the same period of 2024 and higher than the level in 2023. Large banks maintained strong net buying of 1 - 3Y treasury bonds from May to July, and the daily average net buying strength decreased slightly in August compared to July. As of August 22, the cumulative net buying of 1 - 3Y treasury bonds this year was 5657 billion yuan (compared to 5330 billion yuan at the end of August 2024) [57]. - **Rural Commercial Banks: Weak Bond - Buying Strength, Focusing on Long - Term Bonds and Neglecting Short - Term Bonds**: The cumulative net buying of cash bonds by rural commercial banks since the beginning of this year has been significantly weaker than in the same period of previous years, mainly due to the weak net buying of short - term bonds with a maturity of less than 1Y. As of August 22, rural commercial banks had a cumulative net selling of 3732 billion yuan of bonds with a maturity of less than 1Y (compared to net buying of 1.99 trillion yuan and 2.67 trillion yuan at the end of August in 2023 and 2024 respectively). However, the net buying of bonds with a maturity of 7 - 10Y and over 10Y was higher than in the same period of previous years [68]. - **Insurance: The Accelerated Issuance of Government Bonds Facilitated the Deployment of Ultra - Long Bonds by Insurance**: The net buying of cash bonds by insurance since the beginning of this year has been significantly higher than in the same period of previous years, mainly due to the strong buying of ultra - long bonds with a maturity of over 10Y. Assuming that the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of premium income in July and August are 6% and 8% respectively, as of August 22, the ratio of cumulative net buying of cash bonds to cumulative premium income this year reached 47.76%, exceeding the level of 40.10% at the end of August last year. The strong allocation by insurance is mainly due to the sufficient supply of ultra - long - term government bonds this year. As of August 22, the ratio of insurance's cumulative net buying of cash bonds to the cumulative issuance of government bonds with a maturity of over 10Y was only 28.28%, lower than the levels of 35.14% and 31.15% at the end of July and August last year [75]. - **Wealth Management: The Duration in the Secondary Market Rose Again**: Since June, the cumulative net buying of cash bonds by wealth management has been continuously increasing and is significantly higher than the levels of the past three years. In particular, the net buying of bonds with a maturity of over 10Y has been very strong. As of August 22, wealth management had a cumulative net buying of 1414 billion yuan of bonds with a maturity of over 10Y this year, while in previous years (except 2022), there was cumulative net selling in the same period. This week, the duration of wealth management's net buying of cash bonds in the secondary market remained basically the same and was still at the highest level since February 23, 2024. As of August 22, the weighted average duration of wealth management's cumulative net buying of cash bonds was 1.76 years, the same as on August 15 [77][83]. 3.3 Asset Management Product Tracking: Most Interest - Rate Bond Funds Recorded Negative Returns in the Past Three Months - Since August, the month - on - month growth rate of the scale of equity funds has been higher than that of bond funds. In August, the month - on - month increases in the scale of bond funds and equity funds were 57.8 billion yuan and 339 billion yuan respectively, compared to 142.3 billion yuan and 164.1 billion yuan in July. - The issuance share of newly established bond - type funds this week was still low. The scale of newly established bond funds this week was only 3.7 billion yuan, which rebounded from 1.2 billion yuan in the previous week but was still at a relatively low level. - In terms of the performance of bond funds, the net value of various types of bond funds continued to decline significantly this week, and credit bond funds had relatively stronger resistance to decline. The median annualized returns of pure interest - rate bond funds, interest - rate bond funds, and credit bond funds in the past week were - 8.6%, - 7.8%, and - 7.1% respectively. Most pure interest - rate bond funds and interest - rate bond funds recorded negative returns in the past three months [86].