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创新药盘点系列报告(24):难治高血压后线药物梳理-20251229
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-29 05:27
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of systematically researching next-generation innovative drugs for resistant hypertension (rHTN), highlighting that multiple new mechanism antihypertensive drugs will read out data and/or achieve clinical progress by 2025 [2] - Key catalysts include upcoming Phase 3 clinical studies focusing on cardiovascular and renal endpoints, which are expected to provide significant data in the coming years [2] - The report suggests paying attention to domestic companies involved in relevant target areas [2] Summary by Sections 01 Current Status and Unmet Needs in Hypertension Treatment - Hypertension is a prevalent cardiovascular disease, with approximately 90%-95% of patients suffering from primary hypertension, driven by factors such as salt sensitivity and obesity [3] - In the US, the prevalence of hypertension is around 48%, corresponding to approximately 120 million people, with about 60 million receiving antihypertensive treatment [3] - In China, the prevalence among adults aged 18 and older was 27.5% in 2018, with awareness, treatment, and control rates at 51.6%, 45.8%, and 16.8%, respectively [3] 02 Next-Generation Drug Focus on AGT and ASI - The report discusses the focus on AGT (Angiotensinogen) and ASI (Angiotensin II receptor blockers) in the development of next-generation antihypertensive drugs [3] - AGT-targeting drugs, particularly siRNA and ASO therapies, are highlighted as promising avenues for reducing blood pressure effectively [27] 03 Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the market for resistant hypertension treatments is highly structured, with a focus on balancing efficacy and safety in drug development [16] - It emphasizes the need for drugs that can manage long-term adherence and safety, particularly for patients with comorbidities such as CKD and HF [19]
转债市场周报:转债市场再至阶段性高点-20251229
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-29 03:06
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From December 22 - 26, the A - share market was active with continuous gains for five days. The commercial aerospace and precious metals sectors performed well. The bond market was weak on Monday but improved on Tuesday, with the 10 - year Treasury bond rate at 1.84% on Friday, up 0.68bp from the previous week. The convertible bond market was strong, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index rising 1.64% and the price median increasing 1.52%. [1][7][8] - From December 29 - 31, the convertible bond market was still strong, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index hitting a new high. The market price median was close to the August high, and the premium rates in all price - range convertible bonds were above the 95% historical percentile. In the future, the convertible bond market has support from the expected spring rally and institutional buying, but risks from annual report disclosures and high - gain hot - topic bonds should be noted. [3][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Focus (December 22 - 26) Stock Market - The A - share market had five consecutive days of gains. The commercial aerospace sector was boosted by policies and industry development, and precious metals were strong. The trading volume increased, and different sectors were active on different days. By industry, most Shenwan primary industries rose, with non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry leading, and beauty care, social services lagging. [7][8] Bond Market - On Monday, the bond market was weak due to the disappointment of LPR cut expectations and the strong equity market. On Tuesday, Treasury bond futures and spot bonds improved. The central bank's Q4 monetary policy meeting had little impact. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.84% on Friday, up 0.68bp from the previous week. [1][7][8] Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.64%, the price median increased 1.52%, and the arithmetic average parity increased 2.42%. The overall conversion premium rate decreased by 0.21%. By industry, national defense and military industry, building materials led in gains, while commercial retail, beauty care led in losses. In terms of individual bonds, Jiamei, Zai 22, etc. had large gains, while Huati, Saili, etc. had large losses. The total trading volume was 3928.17 billion yuan, with an average daily volume of 785.63 billion yuan, higher than the previous week. [2][8][11] Views and Strategies (December 29 - 31) - The convertible bond market was strong last week, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index hitting a new high. The market price median was close to the August high, and the premium rates in all price - range convertible bonds were at high historical levels. [3][17] - In the future, the convertible bond market has support from the expected spring rally and institutional buying in January. However, in January, with the annual report disclosures and high - gain hot - topic bonds, some individual bonds with performance pressure may face challenges. [3][17] - Currently, the convertible bond market valuation is at a historical high, and overall opportunities are scarce. Relative - return investors are advised to allocate small - position, well - balanced non - redeemable and appropriately - priced equity - biased convertible bonds in sectors such as power, storage, etc. Absolute - return investors are advised to focus on high - volatility underlying stocks below 130 yuan or industry leaders with historically low valuations. [3][17] Valuation Overview - As of December 26, the average conversion premium rates of equity - biased convertible bonds in different price ranges were at high historical percentile levels. The average YTM of debt - biased convertible bonds with a parity below 70 yuan was - 4.44%, at a low historical percentile. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 44.43%, at a high historical percentile, and the difference between the convertible bond implied volatility and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stock was 3.3%, also at a high historical percentile. [18] Primary Market Tracking Last Week (December 22 - 26) - Shuangle Convertible Bond and Jin 05 Convertible Bond announced issuance, and Pulan Convertible Bond was listed. Shuangle Convertible Bond is from the basic chemical industry, with an issue size of 800 million yuan. Jin 05 Convertible Bond is from the power equipment industry, with an issue size of 1.672 billion yuan. Pulan Convertible Bond is from the computer industry, with an issue size of 243 million yuan. [25][26][27] Next Week (December 29 - 31) - Tianzhun Convertible Bond and Shenyu Convertible Bond are expected to be listed. Tianzhun Convertible Bond is from the machinery and equipment industry, with an issue size of 872 million yuan. Shenyu Convertible Bond is from the communication industry, with an issue size of 500 million yuan. [29][30] Overall Situation - As of December 26, there are currently 93 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 146.86 billion yuan. Among them, 3 issues with a total scale of 3.43 billion yuan have been approved for registration, and 10 issues with a total scale of 8.52 billion yuan have passed the listing committee. [31]
美元债双周报(25年第52周):就业降温、通胀回落,美债配置坚守中短久期防御-20251229
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-29 03:05
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US dollar bond industry is "Underperform the Market" [1][4] Core Viewpoints - US employment data continues to cool, with weak employment growth and a rising unemployment rate. In November, non - farm payrolls increased by about 64,000, and the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. In October, non - farm data weakened significantly, with a decrease of 105,000 jobs [1] - Inflation data unexpectedly cooled. The US CPI in November rose 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose only 2.6% year - on - year, the lowest since 2021, providing room for interest rate cut expectations next year [2] - The US GDP in the third quarter grew at an annualized quarterly rate of 4.3%, the fastest in two years, mainly driven by consumer and business spending resilience and more stable trade policies [2] - In the US dollar bond market, it is recommended to prioritize defense. Corely allocate medium - and short - duration investment - grade bonds (5 - 7 - year investment - grade bonds currently have a yield of about 4.3%) and moderately allocate TIPS while keeping low allocations for long - duration varieties over 10 years [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. US Macro - economy and Liquidity - Employment: US employment data shows a cooling trend. In November, non - farm payrolls increased slightly, and the unemployment rate reached a new high. In October, non - farm data was significantly weak, affected by the sharp reduction in federal government employment [1] - Inflation: The US CPI and core CPI in November showed significant cooling, providing room for future monetary policy adjustments and interest rate cut expectations next year [2] - GDP: The US GDP in the third quarter grew at an annualized quarterly rate of 4.3%, the fastest in two years, with strong consumer and business spending [2] 2. Exchange Rate - The report presents multiple figures related to non - US currency trends, Sino - US sovereign bond spreads, and the relationship between the US dollar index and other indicators, but no specific analysis content about exchange rates is provided [50][55][57] 3. Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds - The report shows figures such as the return trends of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds since 2023 (by level and industry), the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - funded US dollar bonds, and the returns in the past two weeks (by level and industry), but no specific analysis content is provided [63][65][67] 4. Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 16 rating actions on Chinese - funded US dollar bond issuers, including 2 rating revocations, 6 rating upgrades, 5 rating downgrades, and 3 initial ratings. Specific rating actions for each issuer are listed in the table [71][72]
荣盛石化(002493):化利润有望修复,硫磺提供业绩增量
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-29 02:57
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The refining profit is expected to recover, with sulfur providing incremental performance [1] - The supply-demand relationship for PX continues to improve, and profitability in the polyester segment is likely to recover [2] - The company benefits from the increase in gasoline and diesel crack spreads due to overseas refinery disruptions [3] - Significant price increases in sulfur are expected to enhance the company's profit margins [4] - The company is positioned for substantial profit recovery from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 1.38 billion, 2.27 billion, and 2.57 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 90.9%, 64.2%, and 13.1% [4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading private refining and chemical enterprise in China, with a processing capacity of 40 million tons of crude oil and significant production capabilities in PX and PTA [1][18] - The company has a diverse product range, including high-end materials and new energy products, with ongoing projects expected to launch between 2026 and 2027 [1][18] Market Dynamics - The domestic PX capacity is expected to see minimal expansion from 2024 to 2025, while downstream PTA and polyester capacities are projected to grow, improving the supply-demand balance [2] - Global gasoline and diesel crack spreads have surged due to disruptions in overseas refineries, benefiting the company's export capabilities [3] Financial Projections - The company anticipates a significant recovery in profitability, with net profit forecasts showing substantial growth over the next three years [4][11] - Revenue from chemical products, refining, PTA, and polyester films is expected to contribute significantly to the company's overall income, with stable margins in the refining segment [21][39] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its product chain through investments in high-end materials and new energy sectors, aiming for a comprehensive industrial layout [1][28] - The introduction of strategic investors like Saudi Aramco is expected to bolster the company's long-term growth prospects [34][28]
私募EB每周跟踪(20251222-20251226):可交换私募债跟踪-20251229
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-29 01:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report regularly reviews the latest private exchangeable bond (private EB) project information available from public channels and tracks the basic elements of private exchangeable bond projects. It is noted that the issuance terms and processes may change, and the final prospectus should be referred to. The issuance progress should be consulted with the relevant lead underwriters [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalog New Project Information This Week - The 2025 private placement of exchangeable corporate bonds for professional investors by Nanshan Group Co., Ltd. was approved by the exchange. The proposed issuance scale is 3 billion yuan, with the underlying stock being Nanshan Aluminum (600219.SH). The lead underwriter is Jinyuan United Securities, and the exchange update date is December 25, 2025 [1] List of Private EB Projects - Multiple private EB projects are listed, including details such as the bond name, lead underwriter, scale, underlying stock, project status, and update date. For example, the 2025 private placement of exchangeable corporate bonds for professional investors by Jiangsu Guotai International Group Co., Ltd. has a scale of 1.2 billion yuan, with the underlying stock being Ruitaixin Materials, and it was approved on December 8, 2025 [2]
国信证券晨会纪要-20251229
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-29 01:00
Group 1 - The cleanroom engineering sector has seen significant stock price increases, with key players like Yaxing Integration rising by 74% and Shenghui Integration by 60%, driven by the structural changes in capital expenditure due to AI infrastructure development [8] - The demand for cleanroom construction is expected to surge due to the explosive growth in overseas AI computing power, making cleanroom construction a critical bottleneck for global AI capacity expansion [8] - Companies like Shenghui Integration and Yaxing Integration benefit from their unique position as the only overseas operating platforms for their Taiwanese parent companies, sharing technology and customer resources [8] Group 2 - Huatu Shanding has transformed its focus to examination training, with 2024 revenue projected to surpass that of Zhonggong Education, becoming the industry leader [9][10] - The public examination boom is driving demand in the examination training sector, with the number of candidates for the national examination expected to increase by 9% in 2026, surpassing graduate school entrance exams for the first time [9] - The company has a relatively lighter historical burden compared to competitors, allowing it to seize opportunities in the post-agreement class era, with revenue expected to exceed that of Zhonggong Education in 2024 [10] Group 3 - The "Exam Direct Train" initiative aims to enhance pass rates significantly through immersive teaching methods and unlimited study opportunities, targeting the underserved lower-tier markets [11] - Strategic partnerships, such as the one with Fenbi, are expected to leverage resources and improve the competitive landscape in the examination training industry [11] - The company forecasts net profits of 3.5 billion, 4.3 billion, and 5.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting strong growth potential and a favorable market position [12]
《生物安全法案》复盘:如何看待地缘政治对中国CXO企业的影响?
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-28 15:38
《生物安全法案》复盘 --如何看待地缘政治对中国CXO企业的影响? 行业研究 · 行业专题 医药生物 · 医疗研发外包 投资评级:优于大市(维持评级) 0755-81982723 pengsiyu@guosen.com.cn S0980521060003 证券分析师:陈曦炳 0755-81982939 chenxibing@guosen.com.cn S0980521120001 证券分析师:彭思宇 证券分析师:凌珑 021-60375401 linglong@guosen.com.cn S0980525070003 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 1 报告摘要 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月28日 n 靴子落地,美国《2026财年国防授权法案》夹带《生物安全法案》生效。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2 ü 《2026财年国防授权法案》夹带《生物安全法案》(主要指第851节《禁止与特定生物技术公司签订合同》)落地,标志着美国已将生物安全正式纳入国家防务与 安全战略框架统筹考量,同时彰显其在生物技术供应链自主可控的明确政策转向,本质是中美的科技竞争与产业安全博弈在生物领域的延 ...
基金周报:中国ETF市场总规模突破6万亿,基金销售子公司再迎扩容-20251228
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-28 15:37
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the given text. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the major broad - based indices in the A - share market all rose, with the CSI 500, ChiNext Index, and SME Board Index leading in returns, at 4.03%, 3.90%, and 3.88% respectively, while the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and STAR 50 lagged, with returns of 1.88%, 1.95%, and 2.85% respectively. The trading volumes of major broad - based indices increased. In the industry aspect, non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, and basic chemicals led in returns, at 6.45%, 6.39%, and 5.41% respectively, while commercial retail, banking, and coal lagged, with returns of - 1.31%, - 0.89%, and - 0.89% respectively [1]. - As of the end of last week, the central bank's reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 34.8 billion yuan, with 457.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing and a net open - market injection of 422.7 billion yuan. Except for the 10 - year bond, the yields of government bonds with different maturities declined, and the yield spread widened by 7.43 BP [1]. - Last week, a total of 77 funds were reported, an increase compared to the previous week. The reported products included 1 REITs, 2 QDII, 8 FOF, and some ETFs such as E Fund CSI All - Share Dividend Quality ETF [1][9]. - On December 23, E Fund announced that its sales subsidiary, E Fund Fortune, had obtained the "License for Securities and Futures Business" and the pilot qualification for fund investment advisory and officially opened; on the same day, Huatai - PineBridge Fund also announced that its sales subsidiary was approved for establishment and was in the business registration stage [2][11]. - On December 29, China Asset Management will cooperate with Thai brokerage InnovestX Securities to list depositary receipts (DR) linked to "ChinaAMC CSI 300 ETF" and "ChinaAMC STAR 50 ETF" on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) [2][10]. - The performance of open - ended public funds: last week, the returns of active equity, flexible allocation, and balanced hybrid funds were 2.57%, 2.14%, and 1.88% respectively. This year, alternative funds have the best performance, with a median return of 57.87%, while the median returns of active equity, flexible allocation, and balanced hybrid funds are 30.89%, 23.88%, and 16.45% respectively [1][2]. - As of the end of last week, there were 282 ordinary FOF funds, 116 target - date funds, and 151 target - risk funds among open - ended public funds. This year, target - date funds have the best median performance, with a cumulative return of 17.38% [3]. - In terms of fund product issuance, 65 new funds were established last week, with a total issuance scale of 27.594 billion yuan, an increase compared to the previous week. In addition, 23 funds entered the issuance stage for the first time last week, and 8 funds will start issuing this week [3]. Summary by Related Catalog 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Related Hot - Spot Review - Fund application and issuance dynamics: 77 funds were reported last week, including 1 REITs, 2 QDII, 8 FOF, and some ETFs [9][1]. - China Asset Management's ETF to enter the Thai market: On December 29, China Asset Management will list DRs of "ChinaAMC CSI 300 ETF" and "ChinaAMC STAR 50 ETF" on the SET, marking the first time that China Asset Management's ETFs listed on the SSE enter the overseas market in the DR mode [10]. - Expansion of fund sales subsidiaries: On December 23, E Fund's sales subsidiary E Fund Fortune officially opened, and Huatai - PineBridge Fund's sales subsidiary was approved for establishment. Currently, there are 9 public - fund sales subsidiaries [11]. - China's ETF market scale: As of December 26, 2025, the total scale of China's ETF market reached 6.03 trillion yuan, a 61% increase from the end of 2024, with a net increase of 2.29 trillion yuan [12]. 1.2 Stock Market - Index returns: Last week, major broad - based indices in the A - share market all rose, with the CSI 500, ChiNext Index, and SME Board Index leading. In the past month, the ChiNext Index had the highest return, and the Shanghai Composite Index had the lowest. Since the beginning of the year, the ChiNext Index has the highest cumulative return [14]. - Trading volume: Last week, the trading volumes of major broad - based indices increased, and they were at the 60% - 85% historical percentile level in the past 52 weeks. On a monthly basis, except for the STAR 50 and CSI 300, the average daily trading volumes of major broad - based indices in the past month increased, and they were at the 80% - 90% historical percentile level in the past 36 months [18][19]. - Industry returns: Last week, non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, and basic chemicals led in returns, while commercial retail, banking, and coal lagged. In the past month, the national defense and military industry had the highest cumulative return, and the real - estate industry had the lowest. This year, non - ferrous metals, communication, and electronics have relatively high cumulative returns [22]. 1.3 Bond Market - Central bank operations: As of the end of last week, the central bank's reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 34.8 billion yuan, with 457.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing and a net open - market injection of 422.7 billion yuan. The 14D pledged - repo rate increased by 22.77 BP, and the 1M SHIBOR increased by 2.96 BP compared to the previous week [23][24]. - Bond yields: Except for the 10 - year bond, the yields of government bonds with different maturities declined, and the yield spread widened by 7.43 BP. The yields of credit bonds with different ratings and maturities of 3 - year and 5 - year also declined [24]. - Credit spreads: The credit spreads of 5 - year credit bonds with different ratings declined [26]. 1.4 Convertible Bond Market - Index performance: Last week, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.64%, with a cumulative trading volume of 392.8 billion yuan, an increase of 85.5 billion yuan compared to the previous week. As of the end of last week, the median conversion premium rate of the convertible - bond market was 32.37%, an increase of 0.19% compared to the previous week, and the median pure - bond premium rate was 24.83%, an increase of 1.10% [27]. 2. Open - Ended Public Funds Performance 2.1 Ordinary Public Funds - Last week, the returns of active equity, flexible allocation, and balanced hybrid funds were 2.57%, 2.14%, and 1.88% respectively. This year, alternative funds have the best median performance, with a return of 57.87% [1][2][30]. 2.2 Quantitative Public Funds - Last week, the median excess return of index - enhanced funds was - 0.11%, and the median return of quantitative hedging funds was - 0.13%. This year, the median excess return of index - enhanced funds was 4.98%, and the median return of quantitative hedging funds was 1.07% [32]. 2.3 FOF Funds - As of the end of last week, there were 282 ordinary FOF funds, 116 target - date funds, and 151 target - risk funds. Last week, 6 new FOF funds were established. The equity positions of target - date funds are relatively high, mainly in the range of 50% - 65%, most target - risk funds have equity positions below 50%, and the equity positions of ordinary FOF funds are mainly in the ranges below 25% and 65% - 100%. Last week, the median returns of ordinary FOF, target - date, and target - risk funds were 0.62%, 1.11%, and 0.62% respectively. This year, target - date funds have the best median performance, with a cumulative return of 17.38% [35]. 3. Fund Manager Changes - Last week, the fund - manager situations of 127 fund products of 41 fund companies changed, including 13 products of Penghua Fund, 10 products of E Fund, and 7 products of Chuangjin Hexin Fund [40]. 4. Fund Product Issuance Situation 4.1 Newly Established Funds Last Week - 65 new funds were established last week, with a total issuance scale of 27.594 billion yuan, an increase compared to the previous week. Among them, equity funds issued 11.428 billion yuan, hybrid funds issued 3.196 billion yuan, and bond funds issued 12.971 billion yuan. There were no new issues of alternative funds and money - market funds. The types with a relatively large number of new funds were partial - equity hybrid funds (13) and hybrid - bond secondary funds (13), with issuance scales of 2.474 billion yuan and 9.005 billion yuan respectively [43][44]. 4.2 Funds Starting Issuance Last Week - 23 funds entered the issuance stage for the first time last week [48]. 4.3 Funds to Be Issued This Week - 8 funds will enter the issuance stage this week, including 4 passive - index funds, 2 hybrid - bond secondary funds, and 1 ordinary equity fund [50].
ETF 周报:上周 A500ETF净申购近500亿元,本周将新发行 2 只科创板芯片ETF-20251228
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-28 14:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (from December 22, 2025, to December 26, 2025), the median weekly return of equity ETFs was 2.75%. Among broad - based ETFs, the CSI 500ETF had the highest return with a median increase of 4.04%. By sector, the cyclical ETF had the highest return with a median of 5.37%. By theme, the new energy vehicle ETF had the highest return with a median of 7.17% [1][13]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net subscription of 35.634 billion yuan, and the overall scale increased by 132.202 billion yuan. Among broad - based ETFs, the A500ETF had the largest net subscription of 49.322 billion yuan; by sector, the consumer ETF had the least net redemption of 580 million yuan; by hot theme, the pharmaceutical ETF had the largest net subscription of 408 million yuan [2][30][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs ETF Performance - The median weekly return of equity ETFs was 2.75%. Among broad - based ETFs, the CSI 500, STAR Market, ChiNext, CSI 1000, A500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 ETFs had median returns of 4.04%, 4.00%, 3.92%, 3.78%, 2.75%, 1.96%, and 1.41% respectively. The median returns of commodity, cross - border, bond, and money - market ETFs were 3.59%, 0.16%, 0.13%, and 0.02% respectively [13]. - By sector, the median returns of cyclical, technology, large - financial, and consumer - sector ETFs were 5.37%, 3.93%, 1.50%, and - 0.16% respectively. By theme, the new energy vehicle, military, and photovoltaic ETFs had relatively strong performance with median returns of 7.17%, 5.84%, and 5.38% respectively, while the bank, liquor, and pharmaceutical ETFs had relatively weak performance with median returns of - 0.89%, - 0.79%, and - 0.16% respectively [19]. ETF Scale Change and Net Subscription/Redeem - As of last Friday, the scales of equity, cross - border, and bond ETFs were 3.8155 trillion yuan, 970.1 billion yuan, and 804.6 billion yuan respectively. The scales of commodity and money - market ETFs were relatively small, at 257 billion yuan and 177.9 billion yuan respectively. Among broad - based ETFs, the SSE 300 and A500ETFs had larger scales of 1.1944 trillion yuan and 299.7 billion yuan respectively [21]. - By sector, the technology - sector ETF had a scale of 430.5 billion yuan, followed by the cyclical - sector ETF with a scale of 215.9 billion yuan. The large - financial and consumer ETFs had relatively smaller scales of 197.6 billion yuan and 185.5 billion yuan respectively. By hot theme, the chip, securities, and pharmaceutical ETFs had the highest scales of 148 billion yuan, 141 billion yuan, and 101.9 billion yuan respectively [24][25]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net subscription of 35.634 billion yuan and the overall scale increased by 132.202 billion yuan; money - market ETFs had a net redemption of 8.324 billion yuan and the overall scale decreased by 8.307 billion yuan. Among broad - based ETFs, the A500ETF had the largest net subscription of 49.322 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 56.639 billion yuan; the SSE 300ETF had the largest net redemption of 5.897 billion yuan [30]. ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings ratios of the SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext, and A500ETFs were at the 83.92%, 86.40%, 97.69%, 95.55%, 63.15%, and 97.86% quantiles respectively, and the price - to - book ratios were at the 64.26%, 72.88%, 99.59%, 65.46%, 63.64%, and 97.86% quantiles respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of the A500ETF increased significantly [37]. - Among broad - based ETFs, the ChiNext - related ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles; by sector, the consumer and large - financial ETFs had relatively moderate valuation quantiles; by sub - theme, the liquor and new energy vehicle ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles [44]. ETF Margin Trading and Short Selling - As of last Thursday, the margin balance of equity ETFs increased from 47.637 billion yuan in the previous week to 47.882 billion yuan, and the short - selling volume decreased from 2.44 billion shares in the previous week to 2.433 billion shares. Among the top 10 ETFs in terms of average daily margin purchases and short - selling volumes, the STAR Market ETF and the securities ETF had relatively high average daily margin purchases, and the CSI 1000ETF and the SSE 300ETF had relatively high average daily short - selling volumes [4][45][52]. ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai - Peregrine ranked in the top three in terms of the total scale of listed non - money ETFs. This week, two ETFs, GF SSE STAR Market Chip ETF and Huabao SSE STAR Market Chip ETF, will be issued [5][56].
美元债双周报(25年第52周):就业降温、通胀回落,美债配置坚守中短久期防御-20251228
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-28 14:08
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US dollar bond market is "Underperform the Market" [1][4] Core Viewpoints - The US employment data continues to cool down, with weak employment growth and an increasing unemployment rate. The inflation data unexpectedly cools down, providing room for the expectation of interest rate cuts next year. The US GDP in the third quarter of 2025 grew at an annualized quarterly rate of 4.3%, the fastest in two years [1][2] - The current US Treasury market presents complex characteristics of both inflation stickiness and fiscal expansion pressure. It is recommended to prioritize defense, core - allocate medium - and short - duration investment - grade bonds, and moderately allocate TIPS while keeping a low allocation for long - duration varieties over 10 years [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs US Macro - economy and Liquidity - The US employment market is weak. In November, non - farm employment increased by about 64,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. In October, non - farm employment decreased by 105,000, mainly due to the significant shrinkage of federal government employment. The private sector's employment elasticity is insufficient [1] - The inflation in the US cools down. In November, the CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the lowest since 2021, which provides more room for future monetary policy adjustments and the expectation of interest rate cuts next year [2] - The US GDP in the third quarter of 2025 grew at an annualized quarterly rate of 4.3%, the fastest in two years, mainly driven by the resilience of consumer and corporate spending and more stable trade policies. Personal consumption expenditure increased by 3.5%, and corporate investment remained strong [2] Exchange Rate - No specific text - based content is provided, only information about related charts such as the one - year trend of non - US currencies, recent changes in non - US currencies, etc. [50][55] Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds - Information about the return trends of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds since 2023 (by level and industry), and the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - funded US dollar bonds are presented in the form of charts [63][65] Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 16 rating actions on Chinese - funded US dollar bond issuers, including 2 rating revocations, 6 rating upgrades, 5 rating downgrades, and 3 initial ratings [71]