通信 业 2026 年 01 月 25 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -26% 0% 26% 53% 79% 106% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 通信 沪深300 相关研究报告 《重视硅光和 CPO 链投资机会—行 业点评报告》-2026.1.21 《台积电和谷歌表现亮眼，重视硅光 链和谷歌链—行业周报》-2026.1.18 《光、液冷、国内 AIDC 迎新变化— 行业周报》-2026.1.11 重视边际变化：卫星和国产 AI 链 蒋颖（分析师） 陈光毅（联系人） 雷星宇（联系人） jiangying@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523120003 chenguangyi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124020006 leixingyu@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124040002 海内外太空建设加速，重视商业航天和卫星链 2026 年 1 月 22 日，蓝箭航天空间科技股份有限公司（简称"蓝箭航天"）科 创板 IPO 审核状态变更为"已问询" ，此次 IPO 公司拟募资 75 亿元，用于可 重复使用火箭产能提升项目、可重复使用 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant price increase trend in the CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) industry, driven by rising raw material costs and strong demand from sectors such as AI and electric vehicles [5][6] - Major companies in the CCL sector have implemented multiple price hikes throughout 2025, with notable increases from leading firms like 建滔积层板 and Resonac [5][6] - The profitability of CCL manufacturers has improved significantly due to these price increases, with companies like 生益科技 reporting a substantial rise in gross margins [7] Summary by Sections Price Increase Overview - The CCL industry has experienced a global price increase trend, with key players raising prices multiple times in 2025, including a 10% increase in December [5] - Resonac announced a price hike of over 30% for its products starting in March 2026, reinforcing global price increase expectations in the CCL sector [5] Drivers of Price Increase - The primary drivers for the current price increases in the CCL industry include rising costs of core raw materials such as copper, electronic cloth, and epoxy resin [6] - Copper prices saw a cumulative increase of nearly 40% in 2025, with LME copper prices reaching $12,960 per ton [6] - The demand for high-performance epoxy resin has surged, particularly for AI servers and advanced packaging boards, contributing to the rising costs in the CCL segment [6] Profitability and Investment Recommendations - The profitability of CCL manufacturers has shown significant recovery, with 生益科技 achieving a gross margin of 26.85% in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase [7] - The report suggests focusing on the CCL price increase cycle and AI penetration rates, recommending stocks such as 生益科技, 金安国纪, and 建滔积层板 as beneficiaries of this trend [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected performance that will exceed the market by over 20% [4]. Core Insights - The company forecasts a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, estimated between 41 to 44 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 213.65% to 236.61% [1]. - The expected operating revenue for 2025 is around 362 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 16.77% [1]. - The company is actively investing in high-end instruments and has made progress in their smart and digital capabilities, with new products like organic element analyzers and liquid chromatography instruments gaining market recognition [2]. - The company has received multiple invention patents, enhancing its intellectual property moat and supporting future product iterations and market expansion [3]. Financial Summary - The projected financial metrics for the company are as follows: - Operating revenue (million yuan): 341 in 2023, 310 in 2024, 362 in 2025, 435 in 2026, and 499 in 2027, with a year-on-year growth of 18.7% in 2023, -9.1% in 2024, and 16.7% in 2025 [6]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders (million yuan): 45 in 2023, 13 in 2024, 43 in 2025, 53 in 2026, and 64 in 2027, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4% in 2023, -71.0% in 2024, and 225.7% in 2025 [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS): 0.53 in 2023, 0.15 in 2024, 0.50 in 2025, 0.62 in 2026, and 0.75 in 2027 [6]. - Price-to-earnings ratio (P/E): 48.3 in 2023, 166.5 in 2024, 51.1 in 2025, 41.0 in 2026, and 33.9 in 2027 [6].

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report indicates a strong recovery in the European electric vehicle (EV) market, with 2025 sales in nine European countries reaching 2.885 million units, a year-on-year increase of 32.6%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 29.0%, up 6.7 percentage points year-on-year [13][16] - The report highlights that various countries, including Spain, the UK, France, and Italy, have implemented or will continue to implement subsidies, which are expected to drive further growth in EV sales in 2026 [7][14][19] - The European Commission's proposal to adjust the 2035 emission reduction targets is not expected to hinder the long-term trend of electrification in Europe. Instead, it introduces incentives for small electric vehicles and imposes requirements on zero-emission vehicles in corporate fleets, which will further promote EV sales [49][51] Summary by Sections 1. European EV Sales - In 2025, Germany's BEV sales reached 545,000 units, up 43.2% year-on-year, while PHEV sales were 311,000 units, up 62.3% [18] - The UK saw BEV sales of 473,000 units, a 23.9% increase, and PHEV sales of 225,000 units, up 34.7% [24] - France's BEV sales reached 326,000 units, up 12.1%, with PHEV sales declining by 25.9% [30] - Italy's BEV sales were 95,000 units, up 44.2%, and PHEV sales were 99,000 units, up 89.4% [41] - Spain's BEV sales reached 102,000 units, up 77.2%, and PHEV sales were 124,000 units, up 111.7% [44] 2. EU Dynamics - The European Commission's adjustment of the 2035 emission reduction targets does not affect the long-term electrification trend in Europe. The proposal allows for greater flexibility for automakers while maintaining the goal of climate neutrality by 2050 [49][50] - The Commission plans to establish a social climate fund to support member states in achieving clean transitions, with a budget of €86.7 billion from 2026 to 2032 [52] 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the lithium battery sector include CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Xinwangda, with beneficiaries including Zhongxin Innovation and Guoxuan High-Tech [55][57] - In lithium materials, recommended companies are Hunan Youneng and Tianci Materials, with beneficiaries including Fulian Precision and Wanrun New Energy [55][57] - For charging stations and modules, recommended companies include Youyou Green Energy and Tonghe Technology, with beneficiaries such as Shenghong Co. [55][57]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (first coverage) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33% in EPS from 2025 to 2027, driven by its strong position in the electromagnetic functional materials and structures (EMMS) sector [4] - The demand for stealth materials is on the rise, supported by an increase in national defense budgets and the upgrading of military equipment, which is expected to drive the company's revenue growth [5] - The company has established a complete closed-loop system from preparation to engineering application, with significant advantages in core technologies such as low-frequency ultra-wideband and multi-spectrum compatibility [4][5] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 9.81 billion yuan in 2023 to 22.56 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 43.96% from 2019 to 2024 [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 564 million yuan in 2023 to 964 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [7] - The gross margin is expected to remain high, with estimates of 76.4% in 2025, 74.9% in 2026, and 73.4% in 2027 [7] Business Overview - The company focuses on stealth functional materials and electromagnetic compatibility materials, with stealth coating materials and structural components accounting for 97.17% of revenue in the first half of 2025 [19] - The company is expanding its business boundaries by developing new generation electromagnetic measurement and control services, aiming to evolve into an integrated platform enterprise [4][19] - The company has a stable supply chain and pricing mechanism that ensures high gross margins, with a gross margin of 76.9% in 2023 [6][25] Market Dynamics - The stealth materials market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 8.5% in China from 2025 to 2035, driven by military modernization and equipment upgrades [42] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for stealth materials due to the growing number of military aircraft and the need for maintenance and upgrades [46] - The competitive landscape is characterized by high barriers to entry, with the company holding a strong position in the market due to its proprietary technologies and established relationships with key military clients [48][50]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (first coverage) [1] Core Views - The demand for stealth materials is on the rise, supported by the growth in defense budgets and the upgrading of military equipment, which is expected to drive the company's revenue growth [5][6] - The company has established a complete closed-loop system from preparation to engineering application in the electromagnetic functional materials and structures (EMMS) field, with significant advantages in core technologies [4][5] - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 30% in stealth materials revenue from 2024 to 2027 [5][51] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 9.81 billion yuan in 2023 to 22.56 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 43.96% from 2019 to 2024 [7][20] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 564 million yuan in 2023 to 964 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 47.34% from 2019 to 2024 [7][20] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain above 70%, with a slight decline from 76.9% in 2023 to 73.4% in 2027 [7][25] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 1.41 yuan in 2023 to 2.41 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 47.9 in 2023 and 28.0 in 2027 [7][4] Business Overview - The company focuses on stealth functional materials and electromagnetic compatibility materials, with a significant portion of revenue derived from stealth coating materials and structural components [19][21] - The company is expanding its business boundaries by developing new-generation electromagnetic measurement and control services, aiming to evolve into an integrated platform enterprise [4][19] - The company has a stable supply chain and pricing mechanism that helps maintain high gross margins [6][60] Market Dynamics - The stealth materials market is expected to grow significantly due to the increasing demand for military aircraft and the modernization of defense capabilities [5][42] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the high demand for stealth materials driven by the upgrading of military equipment and the need for maintenance in the aftermarket [46][48] - The competitive landscape in the stealth materials market is characterized by high barriers to entry, with established players like the company maintaining a strong market position [48][50]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company plans to establish a holding subsidiary, Shenzhen Aige Digital Energy Technology Co., Ltd., with an investment of 70 million yuan, aiming to accelerate its AIDC business layout. Post-transaction, the company will hold a 70% stake in the subsidiary, which will be included in the consolidated financial statements. This strategic move is aligned with the company's development plan to capitalize on the industry's shift towards direct current (DC) power supply in data centers, thereby enhancing its asset optimization and overall competitive strength [4][5]. - The company's main business of charging modules shares a technological foundation with HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current) systems, allowing it to leverage existing overseas customer channels to penetrate the HVDC market. The profit forecasts remain unchanged, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at 164 million, 252 million, and 405 million yuan, respectively. The corresponding EPS (Earnings Per Share) is projected to be 3.90, 5.99, and 9.62 yuan per share, with current price-to-earnings ratios of 59.2, 38.5, and 24.0 times [4][5]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company's financial performance is summarized as follows: - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 1,376 million yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 39.2%. However, a decline of 8.3% is expected in 2025, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 24.9% in 2026 and 31.1% in 2027 [7]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 268 million yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 36.8%. A significant drop of 36.0% is anticipated in 2025, but profits are expected to rebound to 252 million yuan in 2026 and 405 million yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 53.8% and 60.6%, respectively [7]. - The gross margin is expected to be 33.1% in 2023, declining to 28.8% in 2025, before recovering to 30.2% in 2026 and 32.1% in 2027 [7]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decrease from 35.1% in 2023 to 14.2% in 2025, then recover to 18.1% in 2026 and 22.7% in 2027 [7].

Group 1: Industry Insights - The silicon photonics industry is experiencing clear trends, with accelerated development in CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technology. NVIDIA's recent announcements at CES 2026 highlight advancements in supercomputing and optical devices, indicating a growing demand for CPO and related technologies [6][11][12] - The Vera Rubin cabinet features significant technological advancements, including 20 trillion transistors and enhanced memory capacities, which are expected to drive demand for CPO, optical modules, and liquid cooling solutions [6][11][12] - The CPO industry is evolving rapidly, with potential growth in demand for silicon photonics components, including optical engines and related manufacturing processes. Key sectors benefiting from this trend include optical interconnects and passive components [13][14] Group 2: Company Updates - Ji Hong Co., Ltd. (吉宏股份) - Ji Hong Co., Ltd. forecasts a 50%-60% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2025, with expected net profit ranging from 273 to 291 million yuan. The Q4 2025 net profit is projected to be between 57 to 75 million yuan, reflecting strong performance [7][16] - The company's growth is driven by its dual strategy of packaging and cross-border social e-commerce, leveraging AI technology to enhance operational efficiency and expand market reach [17][18] Group 3: Company Updates - Beautiful Pastoral Medical Health (美丽田园医疗健康) - Beautiful Pastoral Medical Health anticipates a net profit growth of no less than 34% for 2025, with expected revenue of at least 3 billion yuan, reflecting a strong resilience and growth potential [8][20] - The company is focusing on a dual growth strategy of internal development and external acquisitions, successfully integrating brands to enhance its market position and operational capabilities [21][22] Group 4: Company Updates - Poly Developments (保利发展) - Poly Developments expects a slight decline in revenue for 2025, with net profit significantly impacted by impairment provisions. However, the company maintains a leading sales position and continues to optimize its land reserve structure [9][25][26] - The company projects a net profit of 1.03 billion yuan for 2025, down 79.5% year-on-year, primarily due to increased impairment losses. Despite this, the company remains optimistic about future performance as low-cost project completions are expected to drive recovery [25][26][27]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a significant growth in 2025, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders of 273-291 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 50%-60% [4] - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 286 million yuan in 2025, 360 million yuan in 2026, and 442 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.63, 0.80, and 0.98 yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 30.7, 24.4, and 19.9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 6,695 million yuan in 2023, with a projected revenue of 7,153 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.4% [7] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 46.7% in 2023 to 51.2% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [11] - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 5.0% in 2023 to 4.2% in 2027, showing a gradual recovery [11] Business Strategy - The company is leveraging its packaging and cross-border social e-commerce businesses to drive high growth, with a focus on long-term partnerships in the fast-moving consumer goods sector [5] - The integration of AI technology, specifically GEO, is enhancing the company's ability to expand into overseas markets, particularly in small language regions [6] - The AI system supports over 40 countries and 28 languages, aiming to improve market penetration in Latin America, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe by 2026 [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of the CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) industry driven by the silicon photonics trend, highlighting the increasing demand for CPO, optical modules, and liquid cooling solutions [4][5] - NVIDIA's recent product launches, including the Vera Rubin AI supercomputer, are expected to boost the demand for CPO and related technologies [4][5] - The report identifies key investment opportunities in the silicon photonics and CPO supply chain, recommending specific companies as potential beneficiaries [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report indicates a clear trend towards silicon photonics and CPO development, with significant implications for various sectors [6] Key Technologies and Products - The Vera Rubin NVL72 cabinet features advanced specifications, including 20 trillion transistors and enhanced memory capacities, which are expected to drive demand for related technologies [4] - The NVIDIA Spectrum-X Ethernet CPO supports significant bandwidth expansion, facilitating cluster scaling [5] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights four key focus areas in silicon photonics: silicon photonic engines, CW light sources, optical interconnects, and passive components, recommending specific companies for investment [6][7] - Recommended companies include: - "Four Key Focus" companies: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Yuanjie Technology, and Tianfu Communication - "Three Small Dragons" in silicon photonics equipment and optical interconnects: Robotek, Zhishang Technology, and Juguang Technology [7]