► 三、投资建议 [Table_Title2] 计算机行业周报 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: ► 一、稳定币：合规提速与应用破局并行 韩国通过《数字资产基本法》草案，大幅降低稳定币 发行门槛至 5 亿韩元，激发 Kakao Pay 等支付巨头及 银行联盟加速布局韩元稳定币；中国香港则发布《数 字资产发展宣言 2.0》，明确将于 2025 年 8 月实施稳 定币发牌机制；同时国泰君安国际获批成为首家拥有 虚拟资产全牌照的中资券商。两地政策驱动与头部机 构行动清晰表明，稳定币正深度嵌入主流金融体系， 这标志着亚洲本币稳定币生态加速成型，传统金融与 加密生态的融合进入规模化落地新阶段。 ► 二、代币化生态延伸，RWA 应用加速 中国移动通信联合会设立"RWA 联合实验室"，强化 标准与场景协同；国家数据局"数据要素×"行动联 合多部委，打通数据确权、跨域流通机制，为 RWA 提 供制度锚点。全球市场同步爆发，广发中国香港试水 离岸人民币代币化证券，拉美完成首笔链上能源资产 并购，Canton 获 1.35 亿美元融资凸显隐私合规基建 价值。RWA 通过资产上链重构传统金融效率，其"制 度设计+技术验证 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The macroeconomic sentiment and supply shortages have driven copper prices to their highest levels since March [6][17] - Precious metals have seen fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions easing and the signing of agreements between China and the US, leading to a correction in gold prices [1][40] - The overall sentiment in the basic metals sector is positive, with prices generally increasing across various metals [6][11] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices decreased by 2.90% to $3,286.10 per ounce, while silver prices increased by 0.60% to $36.17 per ounce [1][25] - The gold-silver ratio fell by 3.48% to 90.86, indicating a shift in market dynamics [26] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 147,420.08 troy ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings rose by 3,726,451.20 ounces [26] Basic Metals - Copper prices rose by 2.26% to $9,879.00 per ton on the LME and by 2.47% to ¥79,920.00 per ton on the SHFE [6][48] - Aluminum prices increased by 1.31% to $2,595.00 per ton on the LME and by 0.56% to ¥20,580.00 per ton on the SHFE [6][48] - Zinc prices saw a significant rise of 4.89% to $2,778.50 per ton on the LME [6] - The overall sentiment in the basic metals market is buoyed by macroeconomic factors and supply constraints [6][11] Copper - The market is currently focused on copper inventory shortages, with LME copper stocks decreasing and COMEX stocks reaching historical highs [7][72] - Supply-side challenges include high costs and shortages of copper concentrate, with potential production disruptions from mining operations [7][72] - Demand expectations are improving, although domestic copper rod production rates have slightly declined [7][72] Aluminum - The aluminum industry is experiencing supply-demand imbalances, with production capacity remaining stable despite some regional maintenance [10][75] - Demand from downstream sectors is weakening, particularly in traditional off-peak seasons, affecting purchasing behavior [10][75] - Future aluminum prices are expected to be supported by ongoing demand in sectors like new energy and power [10][75] Zinc - Zinc prices are being supported by expectations of supply disruptions due to labor strikes at key production facilities [11] - The overall demand for zinc is facing pressure from declining activity in downstream sectors [11] Lead - Lead prices are experiencing upward pressure due to tightening supply from primary smelters and recovering production from recycled lead facilities [12] Small Metals - Magnesium prices have increased due to low inventory levels, while demand remains cautious [13][14] - Molybdenum and vanadium prices are under pressure from downstream demand weakness, leading to price declines [15]

Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The central bank increased net liquidity injection to 12,672 billion CNY during the week of June 23-27, marking the second-highest weekly net injection this year[1] - The central bank's reverse repos amounted to 20,275 billion CNY, with 9,603 billion CNY maturing during the same period[3] - The MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) injection was 3,000 billion CNY, contributing to a total of 3,180 billion CNY in mid-to-long-term liquidity injection, exceeding the 1,630 billion CNY during the March quarter-end[1] Group 2: Interest Rates and Market Trends - Overnight rates remained stable, with DR001 averaging around 1.37% and R001 slightly increasing to 1.46% by the end of the week[1] - The cost of funds for the cross-quarter period rose, with DR007 increasing from 1.51% to 1.70% and R007 from 1.56% to 1.92%[1] - Historical data indicates that the R001 rate typically rises between 38-155 basis points at the end of Q2, with this year's first quarter seeing a rise of 102 basis points[2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The liquidity situation is expected to ease post-June 30, with government debt net payments turning negative at -59 billion CNY, down from 7,898 billion CNY the previous week[5] - The upcoming week (June 30 - July 4) will see a significant reverse repo maturity of over 20,000 billion CNY, creating a potential liquidity gap[2] - The central bank's response in early July will be crucial in determining the continuation of its supportive stance[2] Group 4: Market Indicators - The average bill rate for 1M bills in June was 0.82%, down 30 basis points year-on-year, indicating weaker credit demand compared to last year[4] - The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) was 7,264 billion CNY, with a net financing of -3,829 billion CNY during the week of June 23-27[41] - The weighted issuance rate for CDs was 1.64%, reflecting a downward trend in funding costs[40]

Group 1: A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) of the A-share market is 15.56, with a historical average of 22.09, indicating a significant undervaluation compared to historical levels[8] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE (TTM) of 12.95, while the CSI 300 Index stands at 12.35, both below their historical averages[11] - The growth of the A-share market is primarily driven by earnings changes, with the current year-to-date performance of the Shanghai Composite Index at 14.93%[15] Group 2: Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index currently has a PE (TTM) of 10.78, with a historical maximum of 22.67, suggesting it is undervalued relative to its historical peak[61] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE of 20.32, indicating a higher valuation compared to the broader market[61] - The Hang Seng Index's current valuation is significantly lower than its historical average, reflecting market concerns[63] Group 3: U.S. Market Valuation - The S&P 500 Index has a current PE (TTM) of 27.64, with a historical maximum of 41.99, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical standards[81] - The NASDAQ Index shows a PE (TTM) of 41.84, which is at the higher end of its historical range, suggesting potential overvaluation[89] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has a current PE of 30.60, reflecting a strong market performance but also a higher valuation risk[94] Group 4: Sector Valuation Insights - In the A-share market, sectors like non-ferrous metals and food & beverage are currently at historically low PE levels, while sectors like computers and steel are at historically high PE levels[25] - The banking sector in A-shares has a PB (LF) of 0.62, indicating a low valuation compared to historical averages[28] - The consumer sector, particularly liquor and pharmaceuticals, shows a PE (TTM) of 17.71 and 33.90 respectively, reflecting strong market interest[34]

1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 分析师 证券分析师：王一棠 [Table_Author] 邮箱：wangyt3@hx168.com.cn SAC NO：S1120521080003 | 全球主要市场表现 | | --- | | [Table_Market1] | | | 周涨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘价 | 周涨跌 | 跌幅 | | | | | (%) | | 日经 225 | 40,150.79 | 1,747.56 | 4.55 | | 纳斯达克指数 | 20,273.46 | 826.05 | 4.25 | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 43,819.27 | 1,612.45 | 3.82 | | 标普 500 | 6,173.07 | 205.23 | 3.44 | | 恒生指数 | 24,284.15 | 753.67 | 3.20 | | 德国 DAX | 24,033.22 | 682.67 | 2.92 | | 墨西哥 MXX | 57,474.19 | 1,209.50 | 2.15 | | 富时新加坡海峡指 数 | 3,966 ...

1. Report industry investment rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core view of the report The real - estate market shows a mixed performance in June 2025. Second - hand housing transactions have a slight month - on - month increase but a continuous year - on - year weakening trend. New housing transactions have a month - on - month rebound mainly due to the end - of - month and end - of - quarter push - sales effect, but the year - on - year performance remains weak [1][2]. 3. Summary according to relevant content Second - hand housing transactions - This week (June 20 - 26), the transaction area of second - hand housing in 15 cities was 2.4 million square meters, a 3% month - on - month increase and a 4% year - on - year decline. From a monthly perspective, the cumulative year - on - year decline since early June was 1%, while it increased by 4%, 20%, and 38% in May, April, and March respectively [1]. - In terms of city tiers, the weekly transaction area of second - hand housing in first - tier cities has declined for six consecutive weeks, with a 1% week - on - week decline this week. In second - and third - tier cities, it has increased for the third consecutive week, with week - on - week growth rates of 3% and 12% respectively [1][2]. - In key first - tier cities, in the second - hand housing market from June 20 - 26, the weekly transaction area of Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen decreased by 1% week - on - week. Shenzhen and Shanghai decreased by 8% and 3% respectively, while Beijing increased by 5%. Year - on - year, Shanghai and Shenzhen decreased by 23% and 2% respectively in the weekly comparison, and Beijing increased by 4%. From a monthly perspective (June 1 - 26), Beijing and Shenzhen increased by 8% and 11% respectively, while Shanghai decreased by 19% [24]. New housing transactions - This week, the transaction area of new housing in 38 cities was 3.81 million square meters, a 41% month - on - month increase and a 10% year - on - year decline. The month - on - month rebound was mainly due to the end - of - month and end - of - quarter push - sales effect [2]. - In terms of city tiers, the new housing transaction area in first - tier cities increased by 53% week - on - week, with all of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen showing growth, with growth rates of 32%, 84%, 47%, and 1% respectively. In second - tier cities, the decline turned into an increase, with a 52% week - on - week growth rate, and in third - tier cities, it increased for the third consecutive week, with a 16% week - on - week growth rate [3][4]. - In key first - tier cities, from June 20 - 26, the weekly new housing transaction area increased by 53% week - on - week. Year - on - week, Beijing and Shanghai increased by 2% and 11% respectively, while Shenzhen and Guangzhou decreased by 39% and 8% respectively. From a monthly perspective (June 1 - 26), Beijing and Shanghai increased by 4% and 10% respectively, while Shenzhen and Guangzhou decreased by 30% and 16% respectively [24][25]. Housing price observation - From June 16 - 22, the weekly listing prices of second - hand housing in Shanghai and Shenzhen increased by 0.19% and 0.07% respectively month - on - month, while that in Beijing decreased by 0.22%. Compared with the week before the "924" policy last year, the second - hand housing listing prices in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen all decreased, with declines of 5.8%, 1.0%, and 4.9% respectively [53].

证券研究报告|港股公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 27 日 [Table_Title] 暖冬影响好于悲观预期，存货风险可控 [Table_Title2] 波司登(3998.HK) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 3998 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 4.66/3.58 | | 目标价格(港元)： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 533.34 | | 最新收盘价(港元)： | 4.62 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 533.34 | | | | 自由流通股数(亿) | 11,544.13 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司 FY24/25 收入/羽绒服收入/归母净利/经营活动现金流为 259.02/216.7/35.14/39.8 亿元，同比增长 11.6%/11%/14.3%/-45.7%，我们分析，虽然受到暖冬影响，收入端仍好于悲观预期，主要增长主要来自加盟端 增长及户外、轻薄羽、防晒服等拓品类贡献。FY24/25 公司其 ...

Market Overview - The stock and bond markets are experiencing fluctuations, with a slight tilt towards the bond market as equity assets take a breather after three consecutive days of gains [2] - Major stock indices showed minor declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 down by 0.22% and 0.35% respectively, while the CSI Dividend Index saw a slight increase of 0.03% [2] - In the bond market, yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds decreased by 1.1 basis points and 1.5 basis points to 1.64% and 1.85% respectively [2] Commodity Performance - Internationally, oil and gold prices rebounded for the second consecutive day, with WTI and Brent crude oil contracts rising by less than 1% [3] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a decline in crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories, indicating a recovery in refining activities and stable end-user consumption [3] - Domestic commodities saw a positive response from the black series due to favorable policies, with coking coal and coke prices increasing by 3.60% and 1.86% respectively [3] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank is increasingly protective as the quarter-end approaches, with a net injection of 30.58 billion yuan through reverse repos, bringing the total net injection since June 24 to over 70 billion yuan [4][5] - Despite the central bank's efforts, the cost of funds is rising, with the pricing of non-bank 7-day instruments showing an increase [4][5] Equity Market Dynamics - The equity market is experiencing marginal corrections, with the total trading volume decreasing to 1.62 trillion yuan, down 163 billion yuan from the previous day [7] - There is a notable shift in sentiment, with some funds showing profit-taking behavior, as indicated by a net outflow of 3.7 billion yuan from stock ETFs [7][8] - The implied volatility in the market has significantly decreased, suggesting a withdrawal of bullish expectations among investors [8] Sector Performance - The banking sector continues to perform well, with the SW Bank Index rising by 1.01%, while the non-bank financial sector saw a decline of 1.20% [10] - The communication sector also showed strength, with the corresponding SW Index up by 0.77% [10] - The defense and military sector is driven by expectations surrounding the September military parade, with the SW Defense Industry Index increasing by 0.55% [10] Future Outlook - The current market rally is temporarily stalled, but the bullish sentiment remains intact, indicating potential for future rebounds despite the likelihood of adjustments [11] - Structural opportunities may become more significant as the difficulty of betting on index movements increases, with particular attention on consumer goods, military, and technology sectors [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" from "Hold" [5] Core Views - The company has a solid revenue growth trajectory, with a focus on smart display technologies, including smart TVs, interactive displays, and innovative display products [1][15] - The smart TV segment is expected to benefit from emerging market growth, leveraging flexible supply chain advantages [2][50] - The interactive display business is driven by stable core customers and supportive policies, indicating potential for growth [3] - The innovative display segment shows strong revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 90.1% from 2022 to 2024 [4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1995, has a diverse product portfolio including smart interactive panels, innovative display products, professional display products, and smart TVs [1][15] - Revenue increased from 6.85 billion to 15.59 billion yuan from 2018 to 2024, with a CAGR of 14.7% [1][28] Smart TV Business - The smart TV segment is a stable revenue source, with revenue growing from 4.236 billion yuan in 2018 to 9.528 billion yuan in 2024, representing a CAGR of 14.5% [53] - The company ranks among the top three in global TV shipments for 2024, with a shipment increase of 12% in the first five months of 2025 [54] - The business primarily serves emerging markets, focusing on small to medium regional brands, which allows for stable margins [59] Interactive Display Business - The interactive display products are mainly sold to major global brands, with significant market shares held by SMART and Promethean [3] - The company has established stable partnerships with leading educational display brands, driving growth in this segment [3] Innovative Display Products - Revenue from innovative display products is projected to grow from 420 million yuan in 2022 to 1.519 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 90.1% [4] - The company is actively developing new products, including high-end OLED screens and AI interactive glasses, enhancing its product matrix [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 17.575 billion, 19.591 billion, and 21.461 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.8%, 11.5%, and 9.5% [8] - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.05 billion, 1.27 billion, and 1.46 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 25.8%, 21.2%, and 15.1% [8]

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant increase in equity market performance, driven by the participation of stabilizing funds and a growing fear of missing out among investors [2][6][15] - The report highlights a notable rise in major stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 increasing by 1.04% and 1.44% respectively, while the technology sector showed strong performance [2][6] - The report discusses the volatility in oil and gold prices, with oil prices experiencing a sharp decline followed by a slight rebound, reflecting market stabilization [3][4] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3455.97, up by 1.04%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.44% to 3960.07 [1] - The report notes that the technology sector, particularly the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50, saw significant gains of 3.11% and 1.73% respectively [2] - The bond market showed a mixed performance, with long-term bonds underperforming compared to short-term bonds, as indicated by the slight increase in yields for 10-year and 30-year government bonds [2][6] Market Sentiment and Trends - Market sentiment appears to be stabilizing, with a shift towards observing price movements in oil and gold after significant fluctuations [3] - The report mentions that the recent influx of funds into stock ETFs indicates a growing bullish sentiment among investors, as evidenced by the increase in options trading volume [8][9] - Historical comparisons suggest that the current market rally is reminiscent of previous periods where stabilizing funds led to significant upward movements in stock prices [12][14][15] Sector Analysis - The report identifies potential investment opportunities across various sectors, including consumer goods, technology, and military industries, driven by policy expectations and market dynamics [14][15] - It emphasizes the importance of a diversified investment approach, particularly in light of the current market conditions and the potential for volatility [15]