Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" from "Hold" [5] Core Views - The company has a solid revenue growth trajectory, with a focus on smart display technologies, including smart TVs, interactive displays, and innovative display products [1][15] - The smart TV segment is expected to benefit from emerging market growth, leveraging flexible supply chain advantages [2][50] - The interactive display business is driven by stable core customers and supportive policies, indicating potential for growth [3] - The innovative display segment shows strong revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 90.1% from 2022 to 2024 [4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1995, has a diverse product portfolio including smart interactive panels, innovative display products, professional display products, and smart TVs [1][15] - Revenue increased from 6.85 billion to 15.59 billion yuan from 2018 to 2024, with a CAGR of 14.7% [1][28] Smart TV Business - The smart TV segment is a stable revenue source, with revenue growing from 4.236 billion yuan in 2018 to 9.528 billion yuan in 2024, representing a CAGR of 14.5% [53] - The company ranks among the top three in global TV shipments for 2024, with a shipment increase of 12% in the first five months of 2025 [54] - The business primarily serves emerging markets, focusing on small to medium regional brands, which allows for stable margins [59] Interactive Display Business - The interactive display products are mainly sold to major global brands, with significant market shares held by SMART and Promethean [3] - The company has established stable partnerships with leading educational display brands, driving growth in this segment [3] Innovative Display Products - Revenue from innovative display products is projected to grow from 420 million yuan in 2022 to 1.519 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 90.1% [4] - The company is actively developing new products, including high-end OLED screens and AI interactive glasses, enhancing its product matrix [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 17.575 billion, 19.591 billion, and 21.461 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.8%, 11.5%, and 9.5% [8] - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.05 billion, 1.27 billion, and 1.46 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 25.8%, 21.2%, and 15.1% [8]

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant increase in equity market performance, driven by the participation of stabilizing funds and a growing fear of missing out among investors [2][6][15] - The report highlights a notable rise in major stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 increasing by 1.04% and 1.44% respectively, while the technology sector showed strong performance [2][6] - The report discusses the volatility in oil and gold prices, with oil prices experiencing a sharp decline followed by a slight rebound, reflecting market stabilization [3][4] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3455.97, up by 1.04%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.44% to 3960.07 [1] - The report notes that the technology sector, particularly the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50, saw significant gains of 3.11% and 1.73% respectively [2] - The bond market showed a mixed performance, with long-term bonds underperforming compared to short-term bonds, as indicated by the slight increase in yields for 10-year and 30-year government bonds [2][6] Market Sentiment and Trends - Market sentiment appears to be stabilizing, with a shift towards observing price movements in oil and gold after significant fluctuations [3] - The report mentions that the recent influx of funds into stock ETFs indicates a growing bullish sentiment among investors, as evidenced by the increase in options trading volume [8][9] - Historical comparisons suggest that the current market rally is reminiscent of previous periods where stabilizing funds led to significant upward movements in stock prices [12][14][15] Sector Analysis - The report identifies potential investment opportunities across various sectors, including consumer goods, technology, and military industries, driven by policy expectations and market dynamics [14][15] - It emphasizes the importance of a diversified investment approach, particularly in light of the current market conditions and the potential for volatility [15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 120, compared to the latest closing price of HKD 78 [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, is recognized as a rising star in the industry, demonstrating strong learning and innovation capabilities. It has creatively developed a family farm model for pig breeding and fattening, achieving leading breeding results [1][2]. - The company’s service-enabled family farms have increased from 2,011 households at the end of 2020 to 2,608 households by May 2023, with the number expected to grow significantly in the coming years [2]. - The report highlights the company's cost advantages, with a projected total cost of approximately HKD 12.27 per kilogram by April 2025, leading to a per-head profit of HKD 348, positioning it as a leader in the industry [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Family Farm Model - The family farm model is seen as highly viable under the national rural revitalization strategy, providing significant policy advantages and reducing environmental and disease risks compared to large-scale self-breeding operations [3][16]. - The model allows for smaller-scale operations, which are less prone to environmental and disease challenges, thus enhancing overall industry efficiency and supporting rural revitalization [3][22]. 2. Cost Leadership - The company has achieved a leading position in cost control due to its advanced breeding systems, excellent management, and light-asset model, with total costs decreasing consistently over the years [4][35]. - The breeding system has been developed through significant investment and has resulted in the company’s breeding performance ranking first in the nation for certain pig breeds [7][42]. 3. Growth Potential - The report anticipates that the number of family farms served by the company will continue to rise, with projections of 3,275, 4,500, and 6,200 households from 2025 to 2027, respectively [2][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing transformation in the domestic pig farming industry, positioning itself as a potential growth leader [2][8]. 4. Financial Forecast - The projected total revenue for the company is expected to reach HKD 28.22 billion, HKD 33.75 billion, and HKD 46.32 billion from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of HKD 3.70 billion, HKD 3.67 billion, and HKD 6.97 billion, respectively [11][8]. - The report indicates that the company’s earnings per share (EPS) will be HKD 9.52, HKD 9.43, and HKD 17.92 for the same period, reflecting strong financial performance [11][8].

Market Overview - On June 24, the equity market experienced a significant surge, primarily driven by the ceasefire between Iran and Israel and the participation of stabilizing funds, with notable strength in the non-bank and technology sectors [2][3] - Major stock indices saw broad increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.15%, the CSI 300 by 1.20%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.30% [2] - The bond market continued its upward trend, with the yield on the 10-year government bond rising by 0.6 basis points and the 30-year bond by 1.35 basis points [2][4] Oil and Gold Market - Following the ceasefire announcement, market risk aversion decreased sharply, leading to significant declines in oil and gold prices, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures dropping by 8.95% and 7.62% respectively [3] - Gold prices also fell, retreating from a high of $3,367 per ounce to around $3,310 per ounce due to reduced geopolitical risks [3] Bond Market Dynamics - The central bank's substantial net injection of liquidity helped stabilize the funding environment as the market entered a cross-quarter week [4] - The overnight funding rates showed a downward trend, with the R001 and DR001 rates remaining stable at 1.44% and 1.37% respectively [4] - The issuance of long-term government bonds saw a slight increase in yield, with the 30-year bond yield rising to 1.85% [6] Equity Market Trends - The A-share market saw a volume increase, with the total trading volume reaching 1.45 trillion yuan, up by 301.1 billion yuan from the previous day [7] - The surge was attributed to the easing of geopolitical tensions and the influx of stabilizing funds, particularly in sectors that had previously underperformed [7] - The market's strong performance suggests a temporary alleviation of the "crisis" sentiment that had been building [7] Sector Performance - The non-bank financial sector saw a notable increase, with the SW Non-Bank Financial Index rising by 2.68%, indicating a shift in market dynamics [9] - The Hong Kong market also experienced gains, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 2.06% and 2.14% respectively [10] Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain within a consolidation framework established since mid-May, with potential upward pressure from profit-taking sentiments [8] - The upcoming military parade on September 3 may also influence market sentiment, particularly in sectors related to defense and technology [10]

[Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 23 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：主线未明 [Table_Title2] 复盘与思考: 6 月 23 日，权益行情迎来反弹，银行和小微盘显著上涨，"哑铃型"的市场结构再度回归；债市收益率先下 后上，整体延续窄幅震荡格局，各期限单日变化不到 0.5bp。 复盘各类资产表现，股市，大盘股指翻红，上证指数、沪深 300、中证红利分别上涨 0.65%、0.29%、 0.25%；国内科技板块小幅反弹，科创 50、创业板指分别上涨 0.38%、0.39%，港股的恒生科技上涨 1.05%；小微 盘明显上涨，中证 1000、万得微盘股指上涨 1.31%、2.38%。债市，10 年国债活跃券收益率小幅上行 0.2bp，30 年国债活跃券持平于 1.84%；10 年、30 年国债期货主力合约小幅下跌 0.01%、0.04%。 中东地缘政治局势继续扰动国际大宗商品市场，原油价格高开低走，黄金表现平淡。周日（6 月 22 日）， "美国攻击伊朗核设施"及"伊朗议会提议关闭霍尔木兹海峡"等消息持续发酵，全球避险情绪一度急剧升温。 受此推动，今日开盘后美国 WTI 原油 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since May 2025, the high - valuation transactions of Shenzhen Metro's long - term bonds in the secondary market have been active, with yields rising by over 20bp at one point. This is mainly due to concerns that Shenzhen Metro's frequent support for Vanke may lead to significant losses in equity investment and drag down its creditworthiness [2][12]. - Real estate - related public opinions may disrupt the valuation of urban investment bonds. After the market digests the impact, the credit spreads usually compress. For example, the public opinions related to Guangzhou Urban Construction Investment Group Co., Ltd. and Evergrande and Cedar Industries have affected its bond spreads [2][30]. - The trading of Shenzhen Metro's long - term bonds has stabilized. Given its strong regional economic and financial strength, relatively low credit risk, and higher static yields compared to other municipal subway platforms, there is an opportunity for its long - term bond valuation to recover. Investors with stable liability ends can gradually participate [3][42]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Long - term Bonds with High - valuation Transactions are Active, and Yields Rise by Over 20bp at One Point - From May to June 2025, the number of high - valuation transactions of Shenzhen Metro's bonds in the secondary market reached a record high. In May 2025, there were 65 high - valuation transactions out of 133 total transactions, and as of June 20, there were 144 high - valuation transactions out of 259 total transactions [12]. - Structurally, the high - valuation amplitude of long - term bonds is larger. From April to May 2025, the average deviation of bonds within 5 years from the valuation was within 1bp, while for those over 10 years, it was 2.1bp and 10.86bp respectively [15]. - The average transaction price and term of Shenzhen Metro's bonds have increased rapidly in the past month. From May 20 to June 17, 2025, the average transaction price rose from 1.69% to 2.42%, and the average transaction term increased from 0.9 years to 10.58 years [19]. - Frequent high - valuation transactions have caused the yields of Shenzhen Metro's long - term bonds to rise by over 20bp. Compared with the beginning of the year, the yields of 5 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, and 20 - year sample bonds have risen by 11bp, 18bp, 18bp, and 13bp respectively [22]. - The reason for the rise in yields is that some institutional investors are worried that Shenzhen Metro's frequent support for Vanke may lead to significant losses in equity investment and drag down its creditworthiness. In 2025, Shenzhen Metro plans to provide about 15 billion yuan in loans to Vanke, and in April 2025, it announced a net profit loss of 33.5 billion yuan, mainly due to losses in its long - term equity investment in Vanke [25]. 3.2 Real Estate Public Opinions May Disrupt the Valuation of Urban Investment Bonds, and Spreads Usually Compress after Market Digestion - The real estate industry accounts for a relatively high proportion of Guangdong's GDP. From 2022, many Guangdong - based private real estate enterprises have defaulted on their debts, and some urban investment platforms have been involved in real - estate - related public opinions [30]. - For example, Guangzhou Urban Construction Investment Group Co., Ltd. has public opinions related to Evergrande and Cedar Industries. In 2020 - 2021, it paid 10 billion yuan to acquire 4.8072% of Evergrande's equity, and in 2022, its subsidiary's investment in Cedar Industries' debt financing plan defaulted with an amount of 6 billion yuan. The public opinions have affected the spreads of its sample bonds [34]. - Real - estate - related public opinions can cause the credit spreads of urban investment bonds to widen rapidly, and if there are no new public opinions, the impact may last for 2 - 3 months. After the market digests the impact, the spreads usually narrow quickly, and the market's pricing of public opinions will become less sensitive [42]. 3.3 Transactions are Stabilizing, and Attention Should be Paid to the Valuation Recovery Opportunity of Shenzhen Metro's Long - term Bonds - Shenzhen Metro is wholly - owned by the Shenzhen State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. Its business has strong public welfare attributes, and the region has strong economic and financial strength. The support from its shareholders is potentially strong. Its support for Vanke is within an acceptable range, and its bond maturities are relatively dispersed, with relatively low credit risk [42]. - Since March 2025, the yields of Shenzhen Metro's short - term bonds have declined, while those of long - term bonds have risen, resulting in a significant widening of the term spread. After more than two months of adjustment, the trading of long - term bonds has stabilized [49]. - From a static yield perspective, Shenzhen Metro's bonds have higher yields compared to other municipal subway platforms. Its current yield curve is steeper than in early May, with higher riding returns. The long - term yields of urban investment bonds with an implied rating of AAA are at the lowest quantiles since 2021, while the yields of Shenzhen Metro's 8 - 10 - year bonds are 2.35%, indicating good value [56][62].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights that the sentiment in the pork market is supporting an upward shift in pork prices, with the average price for external three-line pigs at 14.20 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.43% [2][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing soybean and oilseed production, with a focus on enhancing yield through advanced agricultural practices and the promotion of genetically modified varieties [1][11] - The report suggests that while short-term consumer demand is recovering, supply remains relatively loose, but medium to long-term projections indicate that pork prices may exceed expectations in the second half of 2025 due to slow recovery in production capacity [2][12] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting to discuss the production and demand situation for soybeans and oilseeds, emphasizing the need to enhance production capacity and implement key measures for yield improvement [1][11] - The report identifies potential beneficiaries in the planting sector, including Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, and recommends companies with a strong first-mover advantage in the seed industry such as Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][11] Swine Farming - The average price of external three-line pigs is reported at 14.20 CNY/kg, with a significant increase in slaughter volume and consumer demand noted [2][12] - The report indicates that the number of breeding sows has decreased slightly, and the profitability of self-breeding operations has turned positive, suggesting a potential for recovery in the swine sector [2][12] - Recommended stocks in the swine farming sector include companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and DeKang Agriculture [2][12] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2412.94 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.54% [26] - Wheat: The average price is 2440.61 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.46% [29] - Soybeans: The average price is 3946.32 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.21% [40] - Cotton: The average price is 14760.00 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [45] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is reported at 2.69 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.75% [51] - Vitamin E prices have decreased by 10.02% to 80.80 CNY/kg [51][59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past two weeks, interest - rate bonds fluctuated downward. Institutions continued to explore credit - bond spreads, with long - duration bonds becoming the focus. The 10 - year credit spread has significantly compressed. The trading sentiment of credit bonds is quite extreme. Considering the usual significant decline in wealth - management scale in the last week of June, credit bonds may experience short - term fluctuations. Accounts with unstable liability ends are not advised to chase the rising market but can make arrangements during adjustments. Accounts that have already invested in long - duration credit bonds earlier do not need to rush to take profits as there is still some allocation demand in July. Additionally, there is still room for the spread of long - duration credit bonds to compress [1][3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 City Investment Bonds - Net financing remains weak. From June 1 - 22, 2025, city investment bonds issued 3781 billion yuan, matured 3767 billion yuan, and only achieved a net financing of 14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 791 billion yuan. The primary issuance sentiment declined, with the proportion of full - field multiples above 3 times dropping by 14 percentage points to 62%. The proportion of issuances with a term of over 3 years further increased to 45% [31] - Short - end issuance rates continued to reach new lows. In June, the issuance rates of city investment bonds continued to decline. The rates for bonds with a term of less than 1 year, 1 - 3 years, and 3 - 5 years decreased by 10bp, 7bp, and 15bp respectively compared to May, reaching 1.76%, 2.19%, and 2.51% [33] - In the secondary market, long - end bonds performed strongly, with yields of many terms reaching new lows. From June 16 - 20, yields of city investment bonds across all terms declined. The decline in medium - and short - end yields was limited, mostly within 3bp, while most long - end bonds with a term of over 5 years declined by more than 5bp, and credit spreads also compressed [36] - From the broker transaction data, bonds of all terms were traded at a discount to valuation, with long - term bonds over 5 years performing the best. The daily transactions of city investment bonds were still active, with daily transactions often exceeding 800, and the average discount to valuation per trading day was around 2bp. The average discount to valuation of long - term bonds over 5 years was 2.8bp [41] 3.2 Industrial Bonds - In June, the issuance and net - financing scale of industrial bonds increased significantly year - on - year. From June 1 - 22, industrial bonds issued 6187 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1345 billion yuan, and achieved a net financing of 3050 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1425 billion yuan. The comprehensive, public - utility, and non - bank financial industries had relatively large net - financing scales [43] - The issuance sentiment weakened. The proportion of full - field multiples above 3 times decreased from 38% to 30%, while the proportion of 2 - 3 times increased from 24% to 30% [43] - The proportion of medium - and long - term issuances increased. Since June, the proportion of industrial bonds with a term of less than 1 year decreased from 40% in May to 31%, while the proportions of 1 - 3 years, 3 - 5 years (including 5 years but excluding 3 years), and over 5 years increased to 40%, 18%, and 12% respectively [43] - From the broker transactions, the buying sentiment of industrial bonds was high. The TKN proportion remained at 79%, and the proportion of discount - to - valuation transactions increased from 65% to 66%. The transaction duration lengthened, with the proportion of transactions over 5 years increasing by 5 percentage points to 19% [45] 3.3 Bank Capital Bonds - In the primary market, from June 16 - 22, 2025, Xi'an Bank and Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank each issued a 20 - billion - yuan 5 + 5 - year secondary capital bond. The issuance rate of Xi'an Bank was 2.30%. Minsheng Bank issued a 300 - billion - yuan 5 + N - year perpetual bond with an issuance rate of 2.30% [48] - In the secondary market, yields of bank capital bonds declined across the board, and spreads showed differentiation. 10 - year secondary capital bonds and medium - and long - term perpetual bonds performed better. Specifically, yields of 1 - 5 - year secondary capital bonds generally declined by 2 - 4bp, with credit spreads fluctuating narrowly. The 10 - year secondary capital bond yield declined by 5bp, and the spread narrowed by 2bp. Bank perpetual bonds outperformed secondary capital bonds, with most credit spreads narrowing by 0 - 4bp [48] - From the broker transactions, from June 16 - 20, the number of bank capital bond transactions increased significantly month - on - month, and the trading sentiment was good. The TKN proportion was above 68%. The proportions of discount - to - valuation transactions of secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds increased by 2 and 1 percentage points respectively to 70% and 77%. In terms of the term structure, state - owned bank transactions were still concentrated in long - duration bonds with good liquidity. The proportion of 4 - 5 - year secondary capital bond transactions of state - owned banks increased by 3 percentage points to 54%, while that of perpetual bonds decreased by 4 percentage points to 60%. Joint - stock bank transactions reduced the duration [51] - Regarding TLAC bonds, by subtracting the average yields of 3 + 1, 5 + 1, and 10 + 1 TLAC bonds from the yields to maturity of 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y AAA - secondary capital bonds, the spreads of secondary capital bonds over TLAC bonds were obtained. As of June 20, 2025, the spreads of 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y secondary capital bonds over TLAC bonds were 3.5bp, 7.5bp, and 4.8bp respectively, indicating that the 10 - year TLAC bond was more cost - effective at present [54] - For commercial financial bonds, taking the 3Y AAA commercial financial bond as an example, since 2021, its spread has mostly fluctuated between 10 - 30bp, with a stable spread center at 20bp. As of June 20, the credit spread of the 3Y AAA commercial financial bond was 14bp, at a relatively low level compared to the spread center [58]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Position Parameter Table - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to predict future index returns by identifying the relationship between historical price-volume patterns and future performance. It establishes a multi-to-one mapping between historical periods and future periods to construct a position parameter table[40][49]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Fix the future return period to 20 trading days for monthly portfolio construction[40]. 2. Traverse historical price-volume periods ranging from 5 to 240 days to identify the most effective historical period for prediction[40]. 3. Use polar coordinates to represent index states, where the radial distance (ρ) is calculated using the Mahalanobis distance: $ \rho = \sqrt{(x-y)^T \cdot \Sigma^{-1} \cdot (x-y)} $ Here, $x$ represents the current price and volume, $y$ represents historical price and volume, and $Σ$ is the covariance matrix[14][15]. 4. The polar angle (θ) is calculated using the arctangent function: $ \theta = \arctan2(\text{Volume Change}, \text{Price Change}) $[15]. 5. Divide the polar coordinate plane into 80 regions by segmenting the radial distance into 5 equal parts and the polar angle into 16 equal parts[31]. 6. Map each region to the average future 20-day return of indices within that region[46]. 7. Expand the table along two dimensions: - Dimension 1: Calculate the relationship between multiple historical periods and future returns for a single historical date[49]. - Dimension 2: Calculate the relationship between multiple historical dates and future returns for a single historical period[47][49]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures historical price-volume patterns and their relationship with future returns, enabling the construction of robust ETF portfolios[40][49]. 2. Model Name: ETF Selection Based on Position Parameter Table - **Model Construction Idea**: This model selects ETFs by matching historical price-volume patterns with regions in the position parameter table that correspond to high future returns[51]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. At each rebalancing point, calculate the price-volume patterns of indices over multiple historical periods[51]. 2. Match these patterns with the position parameter table to identify regions with the highest future return rankings[51]. 3. Select indices within these optimal regions to construct the ETF portfolio[51]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong predictive power and adaptability, as evidenced by its performance across different time windows[51][53]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Position Parameter Table - **Annualized Return**: 17.27% (Full Sample), 14.65% (Fixed Window), 17.45% (Rolling Window)[65] - **Cumulative Return**: 351.83% (Full Sample), 264.93% (Fixed Window), 358.64% (Rolling Window)[65] - **Excess Return (2021-2025/6/20)**: - Fixed Window: 35.81% (ETF Portfolio: +15.82%, Equal-Weighted ETF: -14.72%)[57] - Rolling Window: 77.51% (ETF Portfolio: +51.38%, Equal-Weighted ETF: -14.72%)[60] 2. ETF Selection Based on Position Parameter Table - **Annual Returns**: - 2021: 6.11% (Fixed Window), 15.96% (Rolling Window), 13.31% (Equal-Weighted ETF)[65] - 2022: -9.28% (Fixed Window), -5.13% (Rolling Window), -22.15% (Equal-Weighted ETF)[65] - 2023: -4.51% (Fixed Window), -6.88% (Rolling Window), -8.35% (Equal-Weighted ETF)[65] - 2024: 16.03% (Fixed Window), 29.12% (Rolling Window), 7.18% (Equal-Weighted ETF)[65] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Price-Volume Pattern (Polar Coordinates) - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor quantifies the price-volume relationship of indices using polar coordinates to identify distinct movement patterns[15][19]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Represent price and volume changes in a Cartesian coordinate system, dividing them into four quadrants: - Quadrant 1: Price up, Volume up (0°-90°) - Quadrant 2: Price down, Volume up (90°-180°) - Quadrant 3: Price down, Volume down (180°-270°) - Quadrant 4: Price up, Volume down (270°-360°)[19][20]. 2. Transition to polar coordinates, where the radial distance (ρ) measures the magnitude of change, and the polar angle (θ) indicates the direction of change[15][19]. 3. Use historical data to map price-volume patterns to future returns, identifying regions with high predictive power[28][31]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides a precise and intuitive representation of price-volume dynamics, enabling effective prediction of future index performance[19][31]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Price-Volume Pattern (Polar Coordinates) - **Future 20-Day Return by Region**: - Regions with high radial distances and specific angular ranges (e.g., 0°-90° for strong upward momentum) exhibit higher average returns[28][31]. - Historical data shows that indices in regions corresponding to "Volume Up + Price Up" (0°-90°) and "Volume Down + Price Down" (180°-270°) tend to perform better in the future[25][28].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - Marvell has raised its expectations for data center capital expenditures (Capex) and ASICs, predicting that by 2028, data center Capex will exceed $1 trillion. The market size for data centers is now expected to reach $94 billion by 2028, a 26% increase from the previous estimate of $75 billion made in April 2024. The guidance for the custom computing chip market (XPU and XPU supporting chips) has been raised by 37% [1][9] - The demand for computing power has seen a leap in growth over the past two years, driven by the rise of computing chips. Despite concerns over sovereign computing and declining capital expenditures, companies like OpenAI continue to show rapid revenue growth and an increase in commercial paying customers. Major tech firms such as Oracle and Meta have also raised their Capex expectations, indicating strong overseas AI demand, particularly from new enterprise clients [2][11] - The ASIC and GPU competitive landscape is benefiting from support from overseas CSP manufacturers, leading to an upward revision in market size expectations and positively impacting the PCB industry chain. The computing sector is expected to maintain strong underlying demand and valuation support, with high-speed optical modules still undervalued [2][13] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Expectations - Marvell's updated forecast indicates that the overall data center Capex will maintain a CAGR of 51%, reaching $593 billion by 2025 and $1.022 trillion by 2028. The four major CSPs in the U.S. are expected to see their Capex grow at a CAGR of 46% from 2023 to 2025, reaching $327 billion by 2025 [7][9] Section 2: Investment Recommendations - Recommended beneficiaries in the computing sector include: - High-speed optical modules: NewEase, Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication - CPO-related beneficiaries: Taicheng Light, Yuanjie Technology - PCB-related beneficiaries: Shenghong Technology, Hude Electronics - Telecom operators: China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom - Related service providers: Invec, New Ray Energy, and third-party computing leasing firms like Guanghuan New Network, Aofei Data, and Data Port [2][3][14]