Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - Short-term lithium prices are expected to remain bullish, supported by ongoing inventory depletion and supply-side disruptions [8][27] - Nickel prices may find support due to potential reductions in Indonesia's nickel ore quotas and additional taxes on associated resources [1][27] - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise further due to a persistent supply shortage, with structural tightness expected to last for the next two years [5][17] - The antimony market is expected to see prices converge towards higher international levels due to export restrictions and tight supply [6][19] - The rare earth industry remains dominated by China, despite overseas efforts to develop supply chains, with significant supply tightening expected [9][20] - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, particularly from Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo [11][21] - Tungsten prices are expected to remain supported due to ongoing supply tightness and regulatory controls on mining quotas [13][22] - Uranium prices are likely to be supported by ongoing supply constraints and geopolitical factors affecting global energy security [14][22] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore production target is set to be reduced to 250 million tons, down 34% from 379 million tons in 2025, to prevent further price declines [1][27] - The Indonesian government plans to classify cobalt and iron as independent commodities and impose a royalty tax of 1.5%-2%, potentially generating an additional $600 million annually [1][27] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices are expected to rise towards international levels due to export controls and tight supply conditions [6][19] Lithium Industry Update - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 97,700 CNY/ton, with a 3.27% increase [8][27] - Supply stability is expected from lithium salt plants, while demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage markets remains strong [8][27] Rare Earth Industry Update - China continues to dominate global rare earth supply, with new export restrictions from Vietnam further tightening the market [9][20] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, particularly from Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo [11][21] Tungsten Industry Update - Supply tightness in the tungsten market is expected to persist due to regulatory controls and reduced mining quotas [13][22] Uranium Industry Update - Ongoing supply constraints and geopolitical factors are expected to support uranium prices in the near term [14][22]

Global Market Overview - The global market experienced fluctuations, with the US stock market showing low volatility due to the Christmas holiday, leading to a temporary reduction in trading volume [1][16] - The TAMAMA Technology Index's P/E ratio rose to 37.61, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reached 44.37, indicating high valuations in the US tech sector [1][16] - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio remains above 40 for over a month, suggesting potential pressure on US equities, particularly in financial, communication services, consumer, and industrial sectors [1][16] US Market Performance - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices increased by 1.4%, 1.22%, and 1.2% respectively during the week [2][11] - The S&P 500 materials sector saw the largest gain of 2.38%, while the consumer staples sector experienced a slight decline of 0.1% [11][15] - Notable stocks in the S&P 500 included Freeport-McMoRan, Micron Technology, and AvalonBay Communities, with gains of 7.91%, 7.1%, and 6.76% respectively [15][18] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index rose by 0.5%, 0.16%, and 0.44% respectively [24][28] - The Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 0.37%, with the materials sector leading gains at 4.3%, while healthcare saw a decline of 1.76% [26][28] - Top performers in the Hang Seng Index included CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, HSBC Holdings, and Cheung Kong Infrastructure, with increases of 6.95%, 3.77%, and 3.26% respectively [28][29] Economic Data - In Q3 2025, the US core PCE price index increased by 2.9%, up from 2.6% previously, indicating inflationary pressures [2][36] - The US GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 was reported at 4.3%, an increase from 3.8% [36][37] - Japan's unemployment rate remained stable at 2.6%, while industrial production decreased by 2.13% year-on-year [38][42]

证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 27 日 [Table_Title] 北京新房成交大幅反弹 [Table_Title2] able_Summary] 地产周速达 1）政策跟踪 12 月 24 日，北京四部门联合发文，调降非京籍及多孩家庭购房门槛，标志着一线城市核心区限购政策进 一步边际松动。内容主要聚焦两方面：一是放宽非京籍准入，将五环内购房社保/个税年限由"3 年"降至"2 年"，五环外由"2 年"降至"1 年"；二是支持多孩家庭，明确二孩及以上家庭可在五环内多购一套住房（京 籍上限增至 3 套，非京籍增至 2 套）。此次调整旨在通过降低刚需入市门槛及打开改善性需求空间，切实落实 中央经济工作会议关于稳定房地产市场的精神。 政策定向扩容需求，成交放量系年末翘尾与情绪共振。本次政策精准锚定非京籍刚需及多孩改善群体，预 计将有效扩大潜在购房需求基数。从高频数据看，本周北京新房成交环比激增 79%，需理性看待的是，由于 新政于 24 日才正式生效（仅覆盖统计周期 19-25 日的尾部），本周成交放量更多归因于房企年末冲量的季节性 因素，政策短期内主要体现为预期的改善与 ...

Liquidity Overview - The average daily net lending by banks reached a historical high of 5.45 trillion yuan from December 22-26, up from 4.90 trillion yuan the previous week[2] - The overnight interest rate R001 remained stable around 1.35%, while DR001 fell to 1.26%[1] - The 7-day funding rate DR007 increased to 1.52%, reflecting a rise of 14 basis points compared to previous years[1] Market Trends - The significant increase in bank lending at year-end is attributed to seasonal patterns, with lending typically exceeding 5 trillion yuan before the year-end[2] - The net financing from government bonds for December 29-31 is expected to be 138 billion yuan, significantly lower than the previous week's 3,667 billion yuan[6] - The issuance of 1-month bills dropped to a near-zero interest rate of 0.01%, while 3-month and 6-month rates rose to 0.65% and 1.05%, respectively[5] Future Outlook - The liquidity cost during the year-end period is expected to remain manageable, with potential peaks around 1.90% for 7-day funds[3] - The upcoming week (December 29-31) will see a net withdrawal of 1,526 billion yuan from reverse repos, indicating low pressure on liquidity[4] - The total maturity of interbank certificates of deposit is projected to decrease to 2,791 billion yuan, down from 8,686 billion yuan the previous week[7]

Group 1: Market Trends - In 2025, the land auction market saw a reversal with a national premium rate of 5.5%, up from an average below 4% from 2022 to 2024[1] - The land transfer fees in major cities like Hangzhou, Shanghai, Beijing, and Chengdu increased by 11% year-on-year, while the overall national transfer fees dropped by 8%[1] - The transaction volume of second-hand homes increased by 6% year-on-year in 15 cities, while new home transaction volume fell by 13% in 38 cities[1] Group 2: Price Dynamics - New home prices remained more resilient compared to second-hand homes, particularly in first-tier cities where second-hand home prices have been declining since May 2025[1] - In November 2025, second-hand home prices in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen fell by 1.3%, 0.8%, and 1.0% month-on-month, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 6.8%, 4.6%, and 4.8%[1] - The average price of luxury homes in cities like Shanghai and Beijing has increased significantly, with Shanghai's highest land price reaching 20.1 million yuan per square meter[1] Group 3: Future Outlook - In 2026, land transfer fees are expected to decline further, influenced by low willingness from city investment companies to acquire land and potential confidence issues among market-oriented developers[2] - The new home market is anticipated to focus on luxury and improved residential properties, driven by the cancellation of price limits and the introduction of high-quality land supply[2] - The second-hand home market may experience further differentiation, with quality properties maintaining prices while older neighborhoods face continued price declines[2]

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the equity market is showing signs of upward momentum, with the total A-share index rising by 0.60% and trading volume increasing by 467 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][2] - The report highlights that the market is attempting to establish new narratives, which historically accompany successful breakthroughs of previous highs at year-end [1][2] - The report suggests that the index is approaching previous highs, with the total A-share index breaking through 6400 points, nearing the highs of October and November [2] Group 2 - The report identifies strong performance in specific sectors, particularly defense, military, and communication industries, which have successfully broken through previous high points, indicating a positive market sentiment towards these sectors [2] - The commercial aerospace sector has led the market with a cumulative increase of 31.12% since November 24, and its trading volume has reached a historical high of 6.05% of total A-share trading volume [3] - The bond market is experiencing a mixed performance, with short-term bonds showing a downward trend while long-term bonds are under pressure due to rising yields influenced by equity market movements [4][5] Group 3 - The report notes that the commodity market has shifted from a broad rally to a more differentiated performance, with precious metals experiencing a decline while industrial metals remain resilient [6] - The report emphasizes that the long-term bullish logic for precious metals remains intact, but short-term volatility may arise due to profit-taking after significant price increases [7] - The report discusses the dynamics in the polysilicon industry, where price increases are being driven by supply-side adjustments, despite ongoing supply-demand imbalances [7]

Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to experience a soft landing in 2026, benefiting from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a release of inventory demand, leading to a mild recovery in global manufacturing[1] - The U.S. economy is projected to be in a soft landing mode, supported by both monetary and fiscal easing, with low overheating risks[1] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates by approximately 50-60 basis points, with potential for a total reduction of up to 100 basis points due to pressures from the government to lower debt financing costs and risks in the labor market[2] - The expected policy rate by the end of 2026 is around 3%, aligning with the neutral rate, which could eliminate restrictive monetary conditions[2][25] Fiscal Policy - The U.S. fiscal deficit is expected to remain around 6% in 2026, while Germany's deficit is projected to increase by approximately 0.9 percentage points to 4%[3] - The increase in the fiscal deficit in Europe may lead to a depreciation of the dollar against the euro[3] Asset Outlook - In the first half of 2026, the continuation of "devaluation" trades is expected, with global asset classes likely to see broad gains, particularly in gold and U.S. Treasuries benefiting from rate cuts[5] - In the second half of 2026, as the Fed approaches the end of its rate-cutting cycle, markets may begin to price in rate hike expectations, potentially leading to adjustments in gold and U.S. equities[5] Risks - Key risks include unexpected changes in the fundamentals of major developed economies, significant adjustments in fiscal and monetary policies, and abnormal volatility in overseas markets[6]

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 24 日 [Table_Title] 发布员工持股计划，彰显长期发展信心 [Table_Title2] 隆鑫通用(603766) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 603766 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 16.5/7.98 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 316.66 | | 最新收盘价： | 15.42 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 316.66 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 2,053.54 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司发布第三期员工持股计划及 2025 中期利润分配方案。 分析判断: ► 员工持股计划绑定未来三年业绩，彰显长期发展信心 公司发布第三期员工持股计划，持股计划规模总额不超过 4 亿元，授予股票数量约为 2594 万股，拟授予对象包 括董事长、非独立董事、总经理、多位副总经理、董事会秘书、财务总监、核心关键人员（平台总监、事业部 副总等）及其 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a significant recovery in equity market sentiment, with major stock indices generally rising and small-cap stocks experiencing a rebound [1][2] - The report highlights that the Shanghai Composite Index has recorded six consecutive days of gains, with a cumulative increase of 3.04% since December 17, reflecting a strong market bottom and positive investor sentiment [1][2] - The report suggests that the current market rally may be an early onset of spring dynamics, with historical patterns indicating that most year-end rallies tend to touch previous highs before retreating [2] Group 2 - The report notes that the CSI A500-related ETFs have seen substantial net inflows, with a net inflow of 13.374 billion yuan on December 23 and a total of 69.179 billion yuan from December 11 to 23, accounting for 25.16% of the total scale of these ETFs [3] - It is observed that other broad-based ETFs did not experience significant net inflows during the same period, indicating that incremental capital may be waiting for more certainty before entering the market [3] Group 3 - In the bond market, despite frequent news impacts, market stability is gradually strengthening, with long-term interest rates maintaining a low volatility state [4][6] - The report discusses the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) recent monetary policy actions, including a net injection of 30 billion yuan in mid-to-long-term funds in December, which is slightly lower than previous months [6][7] - The report highlights that the PBOC's recent statements suggest a shift in focus from the quantity of credit to the quality and actual demand for loans, indicating a potential decrease in urgency for further interest rate cuts [7] Group 4 - The report indicates that the domestic commodity market has maintained high bullish sentiment for three consecutive days, with precious metals, particularly silver, showing strong performance [8][9] - It notes that silver has significantly outperformed gold, with a daily increase of 8.12%, driven by a combination of market dynamics and fundamental supply-demand factors [9] - The report also mentions that the lithium carbonate supply logic is facing a temporary correction due to the anticipated resumption of production at a lithium mining project, which may challenge current trading logic [10]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of the EU's anti-dumping duties on imported pork, which are expected to alleviate domestic supply pressures and stabilize prices in the pork market. The anti-dumping tax rates range from 4.9% to 19.8% and will take effect from December 17, 2025 [2][12] - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in the pig breeding capacity, with a noted decrease in the number of breeding sows, which is expected to support price recovery in the pork market [2][12] - The report suggests that the commercialization of genetically modified seeds will accelerate, enhancing self-sufficiency in key crop varieties and benefiting companies in the seed industry [11] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has initiated inspections to ensure the safety of seeds for the upcoming spring and summer planting seasons, focusing on key crops such as corn, rice, soybeans, cotton, and vegetables [11] - The report identifies companies like Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development as beneficiaries in the planting sector, while companies with significant advantages in the seed industry include Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [11] Pig Breeding - The average price of live pigs is reported at 11.64 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.45%. The total number of breeding sows is 39.9 million, reflecting a decrease of 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [2][12] - The report recommends focusing on companies with significant cost improvements and high future output elasticity, including Li Hua Co., Muyuan Foods, and WH Group in the breeding sector, and Haida Group in the feed sector [2][12] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2351.76 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.26% [25] - Wheat: The average price is 2517.30 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.04% [28] - Soybeans: The average price is 4014.74 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [40] - Cotton: The average price is 14950.00 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.67% [44] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.62 CNY/kg, with no change week-on-week. The average price of chicken feed is 3.5 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.29% [51][53]