Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the total gold production of the company decreased by 4.5% quarter-on-quarter to 768,000 ounces (23.89 tons), while it increased by 16.9% year-on-year. The total gold sales also decreased by 4.6% quarter-on-quarter to 764,000 ounces (24.91 tons), with a year-on-year increase of 14.5% [1][3] - The average gold price achieved in Q3 2025 was $3,490 per ounce (807.9 yuan per gram), reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.2% and a year-on-year increase of 40.4% [1][3] - The total cash cost per ounce in Q3 2025 was $1,225 (283.6 yuan per gram), showing a slight decrease of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 4.5% year-on-year [2] - The all-in sustaining cost (AISC) per ounce was $1,720 (398.2 yuan per gram), which represents a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.2% and a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [2] - The company's revenue from gold in Q3 2025 was $2.373 billion, a decrease of 1.4% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 61.9% year-on-year [3] - The gross profit for Q3 2025 was $1.192 billion, down 0.4% quarter-on-quarter but up 120.3% year-on-year [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was $669 million, remaining flat quarter-on-quarter but showing a significant year-on-year increase of 200.0% [3] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $1.556 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 7.8% and a year-on-year growth of 108.6% [5] - The net cash inflow from operating activities was $1.419 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 39.4% and a year-on-year increase of 134.2% [6] - Capital expenditure in Q3 2025 was $388 million, which is a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.8% and a year-on-year increase of 31.5% [6] Summary by Sections Production and Sales - Total gold production in Q3 2025 was 768,000 ounces (23.89 tons), down 4.5% quarter-on-quarter and up 16.9% year-on-year [1] - Total gold sales were 764,000 ounces (24.91 tons), down 4.6% quarter-on-quarter and up 14.5% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - Revenue from gold was $2.373 billion, down 1.4% quarter-on-quarter and up 61.9% year-on-year [3] - Gross profit was $1.192 billion, down 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and up 120.3% year-on-year [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was $669 million, flat quarter-on-quarter and up 200.0% year-on-year [3] - Adjusted EBITDA was $1.556 billion, up 7.8% quarter-on-quarter and up 108.6% year-on-year [5] Cost Analysis - Total cash cost per ounce was $1,225, down 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and up 4.5% year-on-year [2] - AISC per ounce was $1,720, up 3.2% quarter-on-quarter and up 6.4% year-on-year [2] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - Net cash inflow from operating activities was $1.419 billion, up 39.4% quarter-on-quarter and up 134.2% year-on-year [6] - Capital expenditure was $388 million, up 1.8% quarter-on-quarter and up 31.5% year-on-year [6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [6] Core Insights - In Q3 2025, Newmont's attributable gold production decreased by 4.1% quarter-on-quarter to 1.42 million ounces (approximately 44.2 tons), and sales decreased by 4.0% to 1.308 million ounces (approximately 40.68 tons) [1] - The average realized gold price in Q3 2025 was $3,539 per ounce, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.6% and a year-on-year increase of 40.5% [2] - Adjusted net income for Q3 2025 was $1.883 billion, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.1% and a year-on-year increase of 101.2% [7] Production and Sales - Newmont's total gold production in Q3 2025 was impacted by lower grades at Peñasquito and Lihir mines, as well as planned shutdowns, with a notable decrease in production from the Ahafo South mine [1] - The increase in production from Brucejack, Cerro Negro, and Yanacocha mines partially offset the declines [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was $5.524 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.96% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.9% [4] - Costs and expenses for Q3 2025 were $2.948 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 15.2% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 31% [4] - The company reported a net income attributable to Newmont stockholders of $1.832 billion for Q3 2025 [5] Cost Metrics - The cash cost per ounce of gold sold (CAS) excluding by-product revenue was $1,185, a decrease of 2.5% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year [2] - The all-in sustaining cost (AISC) including by-product revenue was $1,303 per ounce, a decrease of 5.2% quarter-on-quarter and 15.5% year-on-year [3] Future Guidance - Newmont expects its attributable gold production for 2026 to remain within the guidance range set for 2025, with a focus on cost-saving initiatives and production efficiency improvements [14] - The company has adjusted its capital expenditure guidance, deferring some spending to the following year [13] Asset Divestiture - Newmont has completed the divestiture of all non-core assets, including the sale of its remaining interest in the Coffee project, which is expected to yield up to $150 million [15]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - There is no mention of the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since mid - July 2025, credit spreads have been in a low - level oscillation pattern. The duration of the low - level credit spreads depends on interest rate trends and liquidity. The shift from low - level oscillation to widening is usually accompanied by rising interest rates and institutional behavior disturbances [15]. - During the low - level oscillation of credit spreads, different varieties perform differently. High - cost - effective varieties favored by institutions have larger compression amplitudes. The amplitude of credit spreads of each variety is not small, especially in longer periods, and the cost - effectiveness can be judged by the position of credit spreads in the oscillation range [23][24]. - In December, institutions still have the willingness to allocate assets in advance for the next year. If interest rates oscillate downward and the capital side is stable, it is conducive to maintaining the low - level oscillation of credit spreads, but the buying power of credit bonds usually weakens, which may restrict the market performance [27]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Credit Spreads in the Low - Level Oscillation Period: How to Allocate 3.1.1 Credit Bonds: The Cost - Effectiveness of 3 - Year Varieties Increases - In November, interest rates were in a low - volatility oscillation and rose slightly. Credit bond yields generally increased, with high - rating varieties, 3 - year, and 10 - year bonds performing relatively weakly. Credit spreads showed a differentiated trend, with 1 - year spreads basically unchanged, 3 - year spreads widening by 3 - 6bp, and spreads of AA+ and below 5 - year bonds narrowing by 5 - 8bp [11]. - The buying power of credit bonds weakened from strong to weak in November, and the proportion of transactions within 1 year continued to increase. Funds still had a large net purchase of credit bonds, while the net purchase of credit bonds by wealth management products, other asset management products, and money market funds decreased year - on - year [11][12]. - Since mid - July 2025, credit spreads have shown a low - level oscillation pattern. By reviewing the three previous periods of low - level credit spread oscillation since 2021, three rules were summarized. The duration of low - level credit spreads depends on interest rate trends and liquidity; different varieties perform differently during the low - level oscillation; and the amplitude of credit spreads in the low - level oscillation period is not small, and cost - effective varieties can be judged by their positions [15][23][24]. - In December, institutions still have the willingness to allocate assets in advance, but the decline in interest rates driven by transactions may be less than in previous Decembers due to the new regulations on fund sales fees. If interest rates oscillate downward and the capital side is stable, it is conducive to maintaining the low - level oscillation of credit spreads, but the buying power usually weakens [27]. - Currently, the credit spreads of 3 - year and 10 - year varieties have relatively high cost - effectiveness. It is recommended to control the duration of credit bond allocation and seize structural opportunities. In December, the opening scale of amortizing bond funds is still large, which may boost the demand for 2 - 3 - year credit bonds. For accounts with stable liability ends, they can pre - layout medium - to high - grade 5 - year varieties [32][35]. 3.1.2 Bank Perpetual and Tier - 2 Bonds: Wait for the New Regulations on Fund Sales Fees to be Implemented - In November, the yields of bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds generally increased, with large - scale banks performing weaker. The spreads of large - scale bank bonds mostly widened, while the spreads of 4 - 5 - year AA - perpetual bonds narrowed. Compared with medium - and short - term notes of the same term, large - scale bank bonds were generally oversold [39]. - Currently, bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds are waiting for the official release of the new regulations on fund sales fees. The trading sentiment of trading accounts is cautious, but the demand of some allocation accounts has increased. In December, due to the weak buying power of credit bonds and potential valuation fluctuations, accounts with unstable liability ends are advised to participate cautiously, while some accounts with stable liability ends can consider allocating medium - to high - grade varieties [40][44]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bonds: Net Financing Declined Year - on - Year, and Ultra - Long - Term Bonds Performed Well - In November, the net financing of urban investment bonds was positive, but both year - on - year and month - on - month declined. The issuance of medium - and long - term bonds increased, and the weighted average issuance interest rate generally decreased [47]. - The net financing performance of each province was differentiated in November, with about one - third of the provinces having negative net financing. The yields of urban investment bonds showed a differentiated performance, with medium - to high - grade varieties generally increasing and low - grade long - term varieties slightly decreasing [48][50]. - From the perspective of broker transactions, the buying sentiment of urban investment bonds weakened in November, with the TKN ratio and low - valuation ratio both decreasing. The trading of medium - and long - term bonds was active in the first three weeks, and the trading proportion of AA(2) bonds increased slightly [57]. 3.3 Industrial Bonds: Supply Increased Significantly, and the Proportion of Medium - and Long - Term Issuance Rose - In November, the issuance and net financing of industrial bonds increased significantly year - on - year. The issuance of medium - and long - term bonds increased, and the issuance interest rate generally decreased, with a larger decline in the 3 - 5 - year term [60][61]. - The yields of industrial bonds showed a differentiated performance, with medium - to high - grade yields generally increasing and 3 - 5 - year low - grade yields declining against the trend. The spreads of 3 - 5 - year AAA, 3 - year AA+ and AA widened, while the spreads of other varieties mostly narrowed [64]. - The yields of public bonds in various industries generally increased slightly. High - grade medium - and long - term varieties performed weaker, while the 3 - 5 - year AA yields generally declined [67]. 3.4 Bank Perpetual and Tier - 2 Bonds: Supply Increased, and Trading Sentiment Weakened - In November, the supply of bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds increased significantly, with both issuance and net financing increasing year - on - year. The yields of these bonds generally increased, with large - scale bank medium - and long - term varieties performing weaker. The spreads of large - scale bank bonds mostly widened, and compared with medium - and short - term notes, some varieties performed weakly [70][72]. - From the perspective of broker transactions, the number of transactions of bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds increased significantly month - on - month, but the trading sentiment weakened. The TKN ratio and low - valuation ratio of secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds decreased, and the trading of urban commercial bank capital bonds also showed a weakening sentiment, with the trading of urban commercial bank perpetual bonds extending the duration [77].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Duty Free Group (601888) is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the recovery of high-end consumption and the long-term growth potential of Hainan's offshore duty-free market, especially with the optimization of policies and the expansion of retail networks [2][3][4] - The sales of offshore duty-free products in Hainan have seen rapid growth, with a 28.52% year-on-year increase in sales amounting to 1.325 billion yuan from November 1 to November 17 [3] - High-end consumption is showing signs of recovery, supported by strong performance in the gaming sector and luxury brands in the Asia-Pacific region [4] - The Sanya International Duty-Free City Phase III is progressing as planned, with the first phase expected to be completed by August 2026, enhancing the commercial landscape in Hainan [5] - The report has adjusted the revenue forecasts for the company, expecting revenues of 55.468 billion, 61.242 billion, and 70.777 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.114 billion, 5.091 billion, and 6.150 billion yuan [6] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The company held an investor open day in Sanya, showcasing its retail network and business operations, indicating a positive outlook for profit growth due to high-end consumption recovery and policy optimization in Hainan [2] Analysis and Judgment - The report notes significant improvements in the offshore duty-free shopping policies, which have contributed to increased sales and consumer engagement [3] - High-end consumption is rebounding, with notable growth in luxury brand sales and positive trends in the gaming sector, indicating a favorable market environment [4] Investment Recommendations - The report has revised its earnings forecasts upward, reflecting the strong performance in Hainan's duty-free sales and the anticipated growth in high-end consumption [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Tianli International Holdings (1773.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company experienced a total revenue of 3.589 billion and a net profit of 648 million for FY2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 8.1% and 16.5% respectively, in line with performance forecasts [2] - The report highlights a one-time expense impact of approximately 110-120 million due to increased investments in AI and changes in recruitment strategies, which affected student enrollment numbers [2][4] - The company distributed a final dividend of 3.9 cents and an interim dividend of 5.78 cents, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 30%, resulting in a dividend yield of 3.98% [3] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2025, the company's core education services and management business grew by 7% and 94% respectively, with the addition of 8 new managed schools [4] - The overall revenue from comprehensive education services, product sales, restaurant operations, and management fees was 1.868 billion, 0.992 billion, 0.613 billion, and 0.116 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.0%, 8.0%, 2.6%, and 93.9% [4] - The gross margin for FY2025 was 33.8%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased slightly to 18.1% [5] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in high school enrollment next year, supported by a strategic shift towards A-class students, which is expected to enhance its reputation in the long term [6] - The AI business is expected to accelerate with the establishment of new marketing teams and the introduction of products such as AI camps and classrooms [7] - The high-margin management business is projected to maintain an expansion rate of 20 new segments annually, while the education services are expected to continue growing steadily [7]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [6] Core Insights - December production data shows that the export decline for air conditioners has narrowed, with total production for air conditioning, refrigeration, and washing machines at 30.18 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1% [13] - Domestic sales for air conditioners decreased by 29.9% year-on-year, while exports fell by 11.4% [13] - Refrigerator domestic sales decreased by 6.2% year-on-year, but exports increased by 0.7% due to improved conditions following new US-China tariff negotiations [14] - Washing machine domestic sales decreased by 2% year-on-year, with exports down by 0.9% [14] - Rising copper prices may have limited short-term impacts, but could accelerate industry reshuffling and push for higher product value [15][17] Summary by Sections Production Data - Air Conditioners: Domestic sales down 29.9%, exports down 11.4% [13] - Refrigerators: Domestic sales down 6.2%, exports up 0.7% [14] - Washing Machines: Domestic sales down 2%, exports down 0.9% [14] Copper Price Impact - Copper prices have risen, with LME three-month copper at $9,920 per ton as of November 17, 2025 [15] - Copper costs account for approximately 22-25% of air conditioning production [15] - The increase in copper prices may lead to industry consolidation and a shift towards aluminum alternatives [17] Company Announcements - Kangping Technology announced a share transfer involving a 51% stake in Lingchen Collection, with an assessed value of 530 million yuan [18]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - The humanoid robot sector is expected to see accelerated commercialization due to advancements in AI technology and strong domestic demand for core components [1][13] - The electric vehicle battery industry is experiencing a rebound in profitability driven by a reduction in oversupply and increasing global demand for energy storage [2][16] - North America's energy storage market is witnessing rapid growth, with companies like Fluence reporting record orders and revenue, indicating a high level of market activity [3][27] - The gas turbine market is thriving due to overseas demand, with leading domestic companies poised to benefit from this trend [8] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is gaining traction with a recent order of 143 million yuan for a data collection project, indicating strong market potential [1][13] - Key components such as dexterous hands and lightweight materials are critical for commercialization, with domestic manufacturers expected to benefit significantly [1][15] Electric Vehicles - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting a "de-involution" strategy in the battery industry to combat irrational competition and improve profitability [2][16] - Global energy storage demand is projected to reach 500 GWh by 2025, with lithium iron phosphate battery shipments expected to hit 1,300 GWh [2][22] Renewable Energy - Fluence's FY2025 results show a strong order backlog, with North American energy storage demand driven by renewable energy integration and data center needs [3][28] - The European offshore wind market is also expanding, with significant projects underway, indicating a robust growth outlook for companies involved in this sector [3][29] Power Equipment & AIDC - The gas turbine market is experiencing high demand, with leading companies like Harbin Electric and Shanghai Electric expected to benefit from increased overseas orders [8][30] - The transition to a DAP export model has improved profit margins for companies involved in the construction and transportation of offshore wind projects [7][30]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - "Zootopia 2" achieved a single-day box office of 700 million yuan, setting a new record for animated films. The cumulative box office reached 1.37 billion yuan, with total pre-sale tickets at 1.54 billion yuan. The significant increase in audience numbers reflects the strong appeal of quality IP and production, injecting confidence into the film industry chain [2][21] - In November, 184 game licenses were approved, indicating continuous optimization in the industry supply. The National Press and Publication Administration released 184 game licenses, including 178 domestic and 6 imported games. The high number of licenses reflects policy stability, allowing leading companies to deepen their competitive advantages through product iteration and multi-platform strategies [2][22] - Current head technology companies are increasing their computing power investments, coupled with a recovery in entertainment consumption. Investment opportunities include: 1) Hong Kong internet leaders, promoting consumption and stabilizing employment; 2) Gaming industry, with policy incentives boosting domestic demand and technological empowerment enhancing product competitiveness; 3) Film and cultural tourism industries, with consumption policies promoting cinema recovery and stimulating improvement in consumer demand [3][22] Sub-industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office this week are "Zootopia 2" (1.373 billion yuan, 89.50% market share), "Wild Era" (59.14 million yuan, 3.90% market share), and "Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle" (47.84 million yuan, 3.10% market share) [23][24] Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games by sales are "Peace Elite," "Honor of Kings," and "League of Legends Mobile." The top three Android games by popularity are "Heart Town," "Boundary: Knife Sound," and "Daughter of Volcano: Reunion" [26][27] TV Series Industry - The top three TV series by broadcast index are "Tang Dynasty Strange Stories: Chang'an" (83.2), "Xiao Qi Qing Huang" (80.6), and "Si Xi" (79.7) [28][29] Variety Shows & Animation - The top three variety shows by broadcast index are "Now Departing Season 3" (81.7), "Wonderful Night Season 2" (78), and "Running on the Road: Tianlu Edition" (75.9) [30][32] - The top three animations by viewership index are "Immortal Reversal" (193), "Demon Slayer" (187.6), and "Devouring the Starry Sky" (175.2) [31][33]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) plans to launch a pilot program for Commercial Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), which aims to provide an exit channel for real estate companies and alleviate financial pressure, thereby helping to prevent systemic risks in the industry [3][14][6] - Guangdong Province has issued a financial support plan for industry chain integration and mergers, encouraging financial institutions to develop combined financial products and support equity investments, which is expected to enhance the long-term funding structure of the A-share market [7][15] Market Performance - The average daily trading volume of A-shares for the week was 17,369 billion, a decrease of 6.9% week-on-week but an increase of 10.1% year-on-year [16] - The non-bank financial Shenwan index rose by 0.68%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.96 percentage points, ranking 25th among all primary industries [2][13] - The securities sector increased by 0.74%, while the insurance sector rose by 0.20%, and the internet finance sector saw a growth of 2.95% [2][13] Key Company Analysis - The report includes a detailed earnings forecast and valuation for key companies in the non-bank financial sector, with several companies rated as "Buy" or "Hold" based on their projected performance [9][38]

Group 1: Wealth Management Scale - In November, the wealth management scale increased slightly by 729 billion yuan, reaching 33.57 trillion yuan[1] - The week of November 24-28 saw a decrease of 1,328 billion yuan due to market adjustments and seasonal factors, which is consistent with historical trends[1] - The average increase in wealth management scale for the same period since 2020 (excluding 2022) was 2,300 billion yuan, indicating current performance is below seasonal expectations[1] Group 2: Leverage Rates - The average interbank leverage ratio rose from 107.01% to 107.13% during the week, indicating a recovery in lending willingness among banks[2] - The exchange leverage ratio also increased from 122.75% to 123.01%, reflecting a stable upward trend throughout the week[2] - Non-bank institutions have begun to increase leverage, with their average leverage level rising from 111.71% to 112.19%[2] Group 3: Bond Fund Duration - The duration of interest rate bond funds decreased from 3.51 years to 3.49 years, while credit bond funds saw a slight reduction from 2.14 years to 2.13 years[3] - Short and medium-term bond funds also experienced a reduction in duration, with averages dropping from 1.40 years to 1.38 years[3] - The duration of short bond funds increased slightly from 0.75 years to 0.76 years, indicating a mixed trend in duration adjustments[3] Group 4: Risk Indicators - The proportion of negative returns among wealth management products rose to 25.0%, an increase of 9.7 percentage points from the previous week[1] - The overall rate of products not meeting performance standards increased by 1.3 percentage points to 25.0%, with notable rises in various banking institutions[1] - The net value of wealth management products has shown significant withdrawal, with a recorded drop of 26 basis points in rights-based products[1]