Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [6] Core Insights - The report highlights the advancements and trends in the AI industry showcased at the WAIC 2025, emphasizing the integration of model applications, embodied intelligence, and smart hardware [1][3] - The AI computing power segment is seeing significant innovations, with the launch of new GPUs and supernodes that enhance computational capabilities [2] - The commercialization of AI applications is progressing, with a shift from mere demonstrations to practical applications in humanoid robots and smart driving [3] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The WAIC 2025 featured exhibitors and products focusing on model applications, embodied intelligence, and smart hardware, including AI chips and infrastructure [1] - Major highlights included the demonstration of advanced models and robots capable of complex tasks, showcasing the rapid development in AI technology [3] AI Computing Power - The report notes the introduction of the Mu Xi Xi Cloud C600 GPU and Huawei's Ascend 384 supernode, which can achieve a maximum computing power of 300 PFLOPS, nearly 50 times the power of a single node [2] AI Applications - Notable AI applications presented include the Yushu Robot R1 and the Zhiyuan Robot Lingxi X2, which can perform complex tasks such as sorting and playing musical instruments [3] - Alibaba launched the Quark AI glasses, integrating various applications into a compact design [3] Market Performance - The communication sector has shown strong relative performance, with a 1-month return of 8.89%, a 3-month return of 28.49%, and a 12-month return of 52.98%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [8]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight," indicating an expected increase in performance exceeding the market benchmark by over 10% in the next 6-12 months [31]. Core Insights - The weekly average trading volume on the North Exchange reached 31.08 billion yuan, a 42.4% increase compared to the previous week, with the North Exchange 50 index rising by 2.85% [5][12]. - Key stocks that performed well included Hengli Drilling Tools (up 184.1%), Tietuo Machinery (up 64.9%), and Jikang Instruments (up 51.1%) [12][15]. - Significant news includes a record-breaking humanoid robot project by UBTECH worth 90.51 million yuan and the commencement of a 1.2 trillion yuan hydropower project in Tibet [14][16]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The North Exchange's average daily trading volume was 31.08 billion yuan, reflecting a 42.4% week-on-week increase, with a daily turnover rate of 3.3% [5][6]. - The North Exchange 50 index saw a weekly increase of 2.85% [5]. Key News and Policies - A humanoid robot project by UBTECH set a global record with a contract worth 90.51 million yuan, with plans to deliver 500 units within the year [14]. - The 1.2 trillion yuan hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River has officially commenced, expected to boost the infrastructure sector [16]. Core Driving Factors - Regulatory deepening and institutional optimization are progressing alongside the World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC), which showcased advancements in AI and robotics [26]. - The infrastructure sector is gaining momentum due to the Yarlung Tsangpo project, with increased activity in related industries [27]. - Market sentiment is improving with a return of liquidity, although volatility remains low [28]. Investment Recommendations and Strategies - Focus on sectors aligned with new productive forces, such as AI, commercial aerospace, and new energy equipment, prioritizing companies with technological barriers and scarce products in the A-share market [29]. - Emphasize growth companies with revenue and profit growth exceeding 20% and R&D intensity above 5%, while avoiding high-valuation sectors lacking performance support [29]. - Monitor event-driven catalysts, including project announcements and mergers, which may disrupt the current low-volatility environment [29].

Group 1: Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group (600967.SH) - The company is the only main battle tank research and manufacturing base in China, driven by both domestic demand and foreign trade [1][6] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 9.792 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.18%, and a net profit of 500 million yuan, down 41.33% year-on-year [6] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.731 billion yuan, an increase of 19.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 186 million yuan, up 11.03% year-on-year, indicating an improvement in performance [6] - The company is actively expanding into the unmanned military equipment sector, leveraging its technological advantages in armored vehicles [6][7] - The company expects a significant increase in foreign trade sales, with projected sales reaching 4.517 billion yuan in 2025, a 64% increase from 2024 [7] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 11.5 billion yuan, 13.1 billion yuan, and 14.8 billion yuan, with net profits of 750 million yuan, 950 million yuan, and 1.2 billion yuan respectively [7] Group 2: North Navigation (600435.SH) - The company is a core supplier of military guidance systems, benefiting from the rising demand for long-range fire systems [9][10] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.748 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.91%, and a net profit of 59 million yuan, down 69.29% year-on-year [10] - The company anticipates a turnaround in H1 2025, with projected net profit between 105 million and 120 million yuan, compared to a loss of 74.42 million yuan in the same period last year [10] - The company has developed a unique "8+3" technology system and is integrating big data, AI, and IoT into its production processes [9] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 5.24 billion yuan, 6.44 billion yuan, and 7.64 billion yuan, with net profits of 310 million yuan, 400 million yuan, and 510 million yuan respectively [11] Group 3: Hainan Free Trade Port - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially close on December 18, 2025, which has been confirmed as a significant development for regional growth [13][16] - The report identifies four categories of companies that are expected to benefit from the Hainan Free Trade Port: those with significant foreign trade, those involved in supporting construction, tourism-related companies, and other local beneficiaries [16] - The current market liquidity is relatively ample, and the risk appetite is high, suggesting that the Hainan theme could continue to perform well as long as policy details are implemented as planned [16] Group 4: Medical Devices - The National Health Commission is promoting a "reverse involution" policy in medical procurement, which is expected to lead to a revaluation of the medical device sector [18][19] - The 11th batch of centralized procurement has been initiated, with a focus on optimizing selection rules and ensuring quality, which may lead to a recovery in the performance of some domestic manufacturers [19][21] - Recommendations include companies involved in already centralized consumables, those expected to benefit from a slowdown in procurement, innovative devices, and stable equipment manufacturers [21] Group 5: Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector is witnessing significant developments, with major contracts being signed for eVTOL aircraft, indicating a potential transformation in the low-altitude economy [37][39] - The report highlights the importance of commercial rocket capacity for the rapid development of low-orbit satellites, suggesting that commercial rocket orders will be a key indicator for the sector's growth [25][39] - Companies involved in liquid rocket engines, structural components, and specialized manufacturing processes are recommended for investment [25][39]

TERN TO HISTHER 固定收益周报 本轮债市调整的特征、原因及后续空间 证券研究报告 ● 核心结论 权益、商品表现亮眼背景下,债市调整加剧,债基或遭遇大额赎回。或因遭 遇较大赎回压力,周内基金大量卖债,单日卖出规模近千亿。 本轮调整有何特征?(1)价格角度:本轮调整幅度较小、时间不长,但前 期市场已持续阴跌近三周。(2)数量角度:本轮调整中基金现券净卖出规 模较大、理财端维持净买入。 本轮调整原因何在?(1)风险偏好上行、基本面预期边际改善为主要因素。 但与 2015年供给侧改革相比,本轮反内卷政策供需失衡行业占比增多,且 主要针对中下游民企,相对于上一轮集中在上游国企而言,本轮对 PPI 的影 响或更小,后续关注供给端限产情况与需求端改善情况。(2)货币政策态 度转变担忧、前期市场拥挤度高放大市场波动。 分析师 S0800524020002 15692145933 iiangpeishan@research.xbmail.com.cn 魏旭博 S0800525040007 13001269355 weixubo@research.xbmail.com.cn 联系人 P 后续调整空间还有多大?结合本 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive long-term investment outlook for the banking sector despite short-term fluctuations in stock performance [2][4]. Core Insights - The insurance sector is experiencing a shift with the adjustment of the guaranteed interest rates for life insurance products, which is expected to enhance the investment capabilities of leading insurance companies [2][13][17]. - The brokerage sector shows strong performance with a notable increase in stock prices, driven by favorable market conditions and increased trading activity [3][18][19]. - The banking sector is currently facing a downturn, but long-term growth potential remains intact, with a focus on selecting banks with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields [4][20][21]. Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - The insurance index increased by 1.83%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.14 percentage points [2][12]. - The standard interest rate for ordinary life insurance products has been adjusted to 1.99%, down from 2.13%, prompting several insurance companies to lower their rates [13][14]. - The trend towards dividend insurance products is expected to grow, as they can effectively reduce liability costs and enhance competitiveness [14][17]. Brokerage Sector - The brokerage index rose by 4.82%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.13 percentage points, indicating strong market sentiment [3][18]. - The average daily trading volume increased by 20% to 18,487 billion yuan, reflecting sustained market activity [18][40]. - The report highlights the potential for significant gains in the brokerage sector due to favorable macroeconomic conditions and ongoing financial technology advancements [19][20]. Banking Sector - The banking index fell by 2.87%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.56 percentage points, indicating short-term challenges [4][20]. - Despite recent declines, the long-term outlook for the banking sector remains positive, with a focus on banks that exhibit strong earnings stability and high dividend yields [21][22]. - Investment strategies should prioritize banks with high asset quality and low non-performing loan ratios, as well as those benefiting from favorable market conditions [24][25].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - SAIC is set to launch a solid-state battery vehicle priced at 100,000 RMB, while QS has announced a partnership with Volkswagen to advance solid-state battery technology [1] - The Optimus robot from Tesla aims for an annual production of 1 million units within five years, indicating a strong growth trajectory in the robotics sector [2] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project has commenced with a total investment of 1.2 trillion RMB, marking a significant development in the hydropower industry [2][62] - The new energy installed capacity in China saw a year-on-year increase of 18.7% in the first half of 2025, with wind and solar power growing by 22.7% and 54.2% respectively [63][64] Summary by Sections Electric Vehicle Sector - SAIC's MG brand will introduce a new electric vehicle model, MG4, featuring a semi-solid-state battery [1] - QS and Volkswagen are expanding their strategic cooperation on solid-state batteries, with a focus on the QSE-5 battery [1][52] Robotics Sector - Tesla's Optimus robot is currently in version 2.5, with plans for mass production of 1 million units in five years [2][58] - The WAIC conference showcased a surge in participation from robotics companies, indicating a vibrant market [2][59] Renewable Energy Sector - The Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower project, with an investment of 1.2 trillion RMB, is expected to significantly enhance clean energy output [62] - In the first half of 2025, China's total installed power generation capacity reached 364.807 million kW, reflecting an 18.7% year-on-year growth [63] - Wind and solar power installations are driving the growth, with wind power capacity reaching 57.26 million kW and solar power at 110.003 million kW [63][64] Solar Industry - New energy installed capacity in China increased by 18.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with solar energy seeing a 54.2% growth [63][64] - The report highlights the rising prices of polysilicon and silicon wafers, indicating a tightening supply chain in the solar industry [21][27] Wind Energy Sector - Three offshore wind power projects in Jiangsu have begun the bidding process, signaling accelerated development in the wind energy sector [4][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Amidst the strong performance of equities and commodities, the bond market adjustment intensified, and bond funds may have faced large - scale redemptions. The net selling of bonds by funds reached nearly 100 billion yuan per day [2][10]. - The current adjustment is characterized by a relatively small price decline and short - term duration, but the market had been in a slow decline for nearly three weeks. From a quantity perspective, the net selling of spot bonds by funds was large, while wealth management maintained net buying [2][11][12]. - The main reasons for the adjustment are the increase in risk appetite and the marginal improvement of fundamental expectations. Concerns about the change in monetary policy attitude and the high pre - market congestion amplified market fluctuations [2][15]. - The risk of further significant adjustment in the bond market is relatively limited, and the allocation value of interest - rate bonds is gradually emerging. It is recommended that allocation portfolios seize opportunities in the adjustment of interest - rate bonds, especially 5Y CDB bonds and 30Y treasury bonds that have experienced significant recent adjustments. Trading portfolios should focus on signals of relief in fund redemption pressure and the issuance of 50Y treasury bonds next week [2][18][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Review Summary and Bond Market Outlook - This week, the tight money market, strong performance of the stock and commodity markets suppressed bond market sentiment, and redemption pressure increased. Yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds rose by 7bp and 8bp respectively. The bond market adjusted due to factors such as the implementation of anti - involution policies, the start of hydropower projects, and changes in money market liquidity [9]. - The characteristics of the current adjustment include relatively small price decline and short - term duration, but the previous slow decline lasted nearly three weeks. The net selling of spot bonds by funds was large, and wealth management maintained net buying [11][12]. - The reasons for the adjustment are the increase in risk appetite, marginal improvement of fundamental expectations, concerns about the change in monetary policy attitude, and high pre - market congestion [15]. - The risk of further significant adjustment in the bond market is relatively limited. The allocation value of interest - rate bonds is gradually emerging. It is recommended that allocation portfolios seize opportunities in the adjustment of interest - rate bonds, and trading portfolios focus on signals of relief in fund redemption pressure and the issuance of 50Y treasury bonds next week [18][21]. 3.2. Bond Market Review 3.2.1. Money Market: Net Central Bank Injection, Rising Money Market Rates - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 1095 billion yuan. Money market rates rose. R001 and DR001 rose by 6bp to 1.55% and 1.52% respectively. The 3M certificate of deposit (CD) issuance rate fluctuated, and the 1M national - owned and joint - stock bank bill transfer discount price decreased by 15bp [25][26]. 3.2.2. Secondary Market Trends: Rising Yields - This week, bond yields rose. Except for the 3m treasury bond, the yields of other key - term treasury bonds increased. Except for the 7y - 5y, 10y - 7y, and 30 - 20y treasury bond term spreads, other key - term treasury bond term spreads widened. As of July 25, the yields of 10y and 30y treasury bonds rose by 7bp and 8bp respectively to 1.73% and 1.97% [34]. 3.2.3. Bond Market Sentiment: Declining Bond Fund Duration, Continuing Decline in Inter - bank Leverage Ratio - This week, the median duration of all - sample bond funds and interest - rate bond funds decreased, and the divergence slightly increased. The turnover rate of ultra - long bonds continued to rise, the 50Y - 30Y treasury bond spread narrowed, and the 20Y - 30Y treasury bond spread slightly widened. The inter - bank leverage ratio dropped to 107.0%, and the exchange leverage ratio rose to 122.9%. The implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds widened [41]. 3.2.4. Bond Supply: Next Week's Continued Issuance of 50Y Special Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds increased compared to the previous week. The net financing of treasury bonds decreased, while the net financing of local government bonds and policy - based financial bonds increased. This week, the issuance scale of treasury bonds increased, but the continuation issuance sentiment of 30Y treasury bonds was weak. Next week, the 50Y treasury bond will be continued for issuance. The net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased significantly, and the issuance rate dropped slightly to 1.61% [54][59]. 3.3. Economic Data: Rising Port Throughput, Slowing Industrial Production - In July, the LPR quotation remained unchanged. Since July, port throughput has increased, the freight rate index has weakened year - on - year, and industrial production has slowed down. In terms of real estate, new - home sales have improved, and second - hand home sales have shown mixed performance. In terms of consumption, automobile consumption has been stable, and movie consumption has marginally improved. In terms of exports, port throughput has increased, but the freight rate index has declined. Industrial production has slowed down, with some开工率 indicators decreasing [65]. 3.4. Overseas Bond Market: Narrowing of the 10Y Treasury Bond Yield Spread between China and the US - The US 7 - month Markit manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction. Overseas bond markets showed that the bond markets of China, Japan, and Germany declined, while most emerging markets rose. The 10Y treasury bond yield spread between China and the US narrowed by 11BP [73][74][77]. 3.5. Major Asset Classes: Strong Performance of Rebar and Stock Indexes - The CSI 300 index strengthened, and the Nanhua Rebar index strengthened, while the US dollar index weakened. This week, the performance of major asset classes was as follows: rebar > CSI 1000 > convertible bonds > live pigs > CSI 300 > Shanghai copper > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > Shanghai gold > Chinese bonds > crude oil > US dollar [78]. 3.6. Policy Review - Multiple policies were introduced this week, including the China Securities Regulatory Commission's measures to stabilize and activate the capital market, the public solicitation of opinions on the revised draft of the Price Law, the strengthening of financial services for rural reform, and announcements related to the Hainan Free Trade Port's full - island customs closure, the Rural Highway Regulations, and the Housing Rental Regulations. The implementation effects of these policies need to be further observed [80][83][84]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the pulse market driven by exchange rates continues, with a focus on the upcoming issuance schedule of US Treasury bonds, indicating a potential liquidity disturbance due to the need to replenish over 500 billion USD in the TGA account by the end of September [1][18] - The "anti-involution" movement is seen as a superficial phenomenon, with the real driving force behind the rise in commodity prices being the beginning of a new super cycle in commodities, influenced by de-globalization and de-dollarization [2][29] - The report suggests that "anti-involution" is merely the first step in a debt-clearing cycle, emphasizing the need to pay attention to demand-side policies following the supply-side changes [3][34] Group 2 - ROIC-WACC is identified as a key indicator for measuring the degree of "involution," with current negative values concentrated in the midstream materials and manufacturing sectors, indicating deeper involution compared to previous years [4][42] - The report notes that the current super cycle in commodities is just beginning, driven by factors such as the restructuring of global interest distribution and the weakening of the dollar, which shifts pricing from demand to supply [2][29] - The analysis indicates that industries like coking coal, photovoltaic equipment, and wind power equipment are still in a state of "true involution," suggesting potential for further price increases [4][51] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of "hard currency" and "hard technology" investments, recommending a focus on gold, banks, resources, and public utilities as safe assets, alongside domestic AI computing capabilities as a growth area [5][66] - It is noted that the current economic environment is characterized by significant deflationary pressures, with historical parallels drawn to previous debt-clearing cycles [3][34] - The report suggests that the upcoming political bureau meeting will be a critical observation point for future demand-side policies, which are essential for sustaining economic recovery [3][36]

Investment Rating - The report recommends an overweight rating for the transportation industry, expecting a price increase exceeding 10% over the next 6-12 months compared to the market benchmark index [28]. Core Insights - The transportation index increased by 3.18% this week, ranking 11th among 30 primary sub-industries. Year-to-date, the index has risen by 2.59%, ranking 26th [4]. - The airport sector showed the highest growth this week, with a 5.64% increase. Year-to-date, the express delivery, public transport, and shipping sectors have seen increases of 19.01%, 15.20%, and 7.76% respectively [4]. - The CCFI index decreased by 3.24% this week, with the SCFI index down by 3.30%. The average price of pre-sold tickets for the summer travel season is 787 yuan, a decrease of 3.3% year-on-year [4]. - Sichuan Chengyu has initiated the expansion of the Chengya Expressway, with an estimated total investment of approximately 28.55 billion yuan [4]. - Shentong Express plans to acquire 100% of Daniao Logistics for approximately 362 million yuan, with Daniao's revenue for 2024 projected at 12.4 billion yuan [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The transportation index has shown a cumulative increase of 2.59% from January 2025 to date, with a weekly increase of 3.18% [4]. - The express delivery sector has the highest year-to-date growth at 19.01%, followed by public transport and shipping [4]. Major Events - The CCFI index decreased by 3.24%, while the SCFI index fell by 3.30%. The average ticket price for summer travel is down 3.3% year-on-year [4]. - The expansion project for the Chengya Expressway has a total estimated investment of 28.55 billion yuan, with Sichuan Chengyu contributing 49.02 million yuan [4]. - Shentong Express is set to acquire Daniao Logistics for 362 million yuan, with projected revenues for Daniao in 2024 at 12.4 billion yuan [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as JD Logistics, Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, Shentong Express, Spring Airlines, and Sichuan Chengyu for investment [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group Co., Ltd. (600967.SH) [5] Core Views - The company is the only main battle tank research and manufacturing base in China, driven by both domestic demand and military trade. It has established a production pattern that integrates various types of armored vehicles and artillery, making it a key player in China's defense industry [1][5] - The company's revenue and profit are under short-term pressure, but there is an upward turning point in Q1 2025, with revenue of 2.731 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, and a net profit of 186 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.03% [1][31] - The company is actively expanding into the military drone sector, leveraging its technological advantages in armored vehicles, which presents significant growth potential [1][11] Summary by Sections Domestic Demand - The new generation of equipment has a continuous replacement demand, and the company is expanding into the military drone field. The ZTZ-99 main battle tank has been in service for over 20 years, and the development of the fourth generation of tanks is underway [1][11] - The company expects domestic revenue to grow by 12% to 114.1 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with a stable increase in gross profit margin [11][39] Foreign Trade - The demand for foreign trade is expected to drive a small peak in tank exports. The company has seen significant growth in military trade, with expected sales of 4.517 billion yuan in 2025, a 64% increase from 2024 [2][11] - The VT-4 and VT-5 tanks are gaining international recognition, with orders from countries like Pakistan, Thailand, and Nigeria, indicating a strong potential for military trade orders [2][67] Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.5 billion yuan, 13.1 billion yuan, and 14.8 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 750 million yuan, 950 million yuan, and 1.2 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 50%, 27%, and 27% respectively [2][14]