Report Information - Report Title: Economic Pressure Emerges, Convergence of High Volatility in Stock Indexes - Company: Shanghai Orient Futures Co., Ltd., Orient Derivatives Research Institute - Analyst: Wang Peicheng, Senior Macro Analyst - Analyst Qualification: F03093911 (Practicing Qualification Number), Z0017305 (Investment Consulting Number) [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - In the fourth quarter, domestic economic pressure will increase, and the annual economic growth rate is expected to be 4.8 - 5%. The inflation trend is upward, with the PPI expected to be -1.9% and the CPI +0.5%. The fiscal deficit rate will continue to rise, and the government will increase spending. The transmission from loose money to loose credit in monetary policy is不畅, and the central bank may cut reserve requirements and interest rates in the fourth quarter. The domestic economy is in a "great differentiation" stage, and the restart of the economic cycle depends on the repair of the private sector's balance sheet. A-share performance has been good since the third quarter, with large sector differentiation. The rise of A-shares is mainly driven by valuation, and the long-term valuation center is declining. The entry of the national team and technological breakthroughs provide positive expected returns for the stock market, and high-risk preference funds are the first to enter the market. In the fourth quarter, the volatility of stock indexes may decrease, and attention should be paid to the opportunities in sub - sectors and sub - industries [4][7][14][62][69] Summary by Directory Fourth - Quarter Domestic Macroeconomic Outlook - **Economic Growth**: Domestic economic indicators have declined significantly since June. The demand - side indicators of social retail and fixed - asset investment are both below 5%, and fixed - asset investment has been negative for three consecutive months. Due to the high GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year, the growth rate in the fourth quarter of this year will be suppressed. The annual economic growth rate is expected to be 4.8 - 5% [7] - **Inflation**: The anti - involution policy's impact on inflation is still in the early stage. Upstream resource industries have improved the most, while mid - and downstream manufacturing industries have shown no obvious improvement. In the fourth quarter, the inflation trend is upward. The narrowing of the tail - end factor forms a low - base effect, the anti - involution policy promotes the marginal improvement of PPI, and consumer subsidies and the winter tourism season boost CPI. The expected PPI in the fourth quarter is -1.9%, the CPI is +0.5%, and the deflator is -0.7%, an increase of about 0.75% compared with the third quarter [8][14] - **Fiscal Policy**: The domestic economy still relies on fiscal support. As of August, fiscal revenue growth has turned positive, and expenditure growth remains high. The average generalized deficit rate in the third quarter was 9.37%, an increase of 0.37% compared with the second quarter. The government bond financing is an important support for fiscal expenditure. The issuance of national bonds this year is earlier, with 1 - 9 months' net financing of 5.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 72.4% of the annual total. The issuance of local bonds is slower, with only 68% of the annual progress completed in the first three quarters, leaving room for acceleration in the fourth quarter. Fiscal expenditure is tilted towards the people's livelihood and consumption fields, and the policy concept is transforming to "investing in people", with the policy structure tilting towards the "demand side" [15][26][30] - **Monetary Policy**: The transmission from loose money to loose credit is不畅. The growth rate of social financing excluding government bonds in the first eight months was only about 6%, and the credit balance growth rate has dropped to 6.8%. There is still a strong need for interest rate cuts. On the one hand, the current loose money in the country has a weak driving effect on credit expansion. On the enterprise side, the real return rate is still declining, and the housing mortgage rate is still relatively high. In the fourth quarter, monetary policy will cooperate with fiscal policy, be precise and targeted. The central bank may cut reserve requirements and interest rates to provide liquidity, and 50 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments will be accelerated for establishment and investment [31][38][50] - **Economic Structure**: The domestic economy is in a "great differentiation" stage, with significant differences in nominal and real growth rates at the aggregate level, cycle fluctuations and structural growth at the structural level, and growth rates between traditional and new industries at the industrial level. The restart of the economic cycle depends on the repair of the private sector's balance sheet. Currently, the inventory cycle has a long duration but low height, and the cycle is flattened due to the real - estate market and private - enterprise cash - flow pressure [51][56][57] Fourth - Quarter Stock Index Outlook - **Overall Performance**: Since the third quarter, A - shares have truly outperformed the global market. Although the macro - environment has fluctuated greatly this year, global stock markets have performed well, and A - shares have achieved excess returns since the third quarter [65][69] - **Sector Differentiation**: The trading volume of A - shares has increased, with the 5 - day average turnover exceeding 3 trillion yuan, but it has declined since September. There is large differentiation among sectors, with the difference between the best - performing ChiNext Index and the worst - performing SSE 50 Index reaching nearly 40% [76] - **Deviation from Fundamentals**: The rise of global stock markets is supported by fundamentals, such as the upward - trending manufacturing PMI in four continents. However, China's manufacturing PMI has been below the boom - bust line since April, and macro - indicators have declined in the second quarter. Historically, A - share bull markets have been accompanied by fundamental repairs, and the current ROE of the whole A - share market is flat, while that of the ChiNext and Sci - tech Innovation Board is rebounding [80][85] - **Driving Factors**: The rise of A - shares is mainly driven by valuation. In the third quarter, the expected price - to - earnings ratio has risen significantly and returned to the 2021 level, while the expected profit level has been revised down after the earnings season. In the long term, the valuation center of A - shares is declining, and short - term valuation increases will lead to a greater return to fundamentals in the medium term [86][96] - **Positive Factors**: The entry of the national team and technological breakthroughs in the technology industry provide positive expected returns for the stock market. Residents have about 44.3 trillion yuan in excess deposits. The entry of residents' deposits into the stock market is in the early stage, and high - risk preference funds are the first to enter, such as margin - trading funds. The abnormal increase in non - bank deposits and the rapid expansion of margin - trading balances occurred from July to August [97][108] - **Outlook and Strategy**: In September, the A - share market fluctuated at a high level, and the sector differences further widened. In the fourth quarter, the stock index is in a high - valuation area, and more funds are needed to maintain its strength. The national team will control market fluctuations. The volatility of the stock market will decrease in the fourth quarter, and opportunities in sub - sectors and sub - industries may be boosted by the "15th Five - Year Plan". The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to range from 3674 to 4000 points, corresponding to a space of about [-4%, +4%]. For hedging, short - hedging positions can be gradually opened; for unilateral trading, IF, IC, and IM should be evenly allocated; for arbitrage, a combination of long IM and short IF/IC can be selected [118]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum element shows a serious oversupply situation from the mine end, and there is a certain downward pressure on overseas ore prices in the long - term, but the price decline speed and amplitude are controllable before Guinea's monopoly status is shaken [21]. - The alumina industry is in a state of large - scale oversupply and is under import pressure. The price needs to break through the high - cost part of the industry. The Q4 price bottom may test 2700 - 2800 yuan, and mid - term long positions can be considered below 2700 yuan [47]. - The cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum in Q4 is expected to decline, and the supply will continue to increase both domestically and overseas. The demand growth rate will face downward pressure, but the low supply and inventory will support the aluminum price, and the price does not have a basis for rapid upward movement [51][62][64][72][91]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Ore - Overseas - The latest transaction price range of Guinea's bauxite is 73 - 75 dollars per dry ton, and the bauxite freight is maintained at 20 - 25 dollars per ton. In August, China imported 18.29 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 18.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.8%. From January to August, the cumulative import was 141.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% [6][11]. - In 2025, overseas bauxite supply will continue to grow, with the main increment coming from Guinea (+50 million tons), Australia (+2 million tons), and Guyana (+5 million tons). There are many new projects planned in 2026, with a total planned increase of 62.5 million tons [13][14]. - The Q4 price game of Guinea's ore is expected to be 70 - 75 dollars, corresponding to the cash cost of alumina plants using imported ore in Shanxi and Henan of 2900 - 3100 yuan [14]. Aluminum Ore - Domestic - The domestic bauxite price remains stable. The含税 price of 58/5 ore in Shanxi is 700 yuan per ton, and that in Henan is 658 yuan per ton. From January to August, the domestic bauxite output was 40.86 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.83%. The domestic bauxite supply in Q4 is expected to have no significant improvement, and the output in 2025 is expected to be 62.3 million tons, an increase of 4.2 million tons (+7.2%) compared with 2024 [20]. Aluminum Ore - Conclusion - From January to August, the total domestic and imported bauxite was 182.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25%, while the growth rate of electrolytic aluminum output was +2.7%. The aluminum element shows a serious oversupply situation from the mine end [21]. - Guinea has certain pricing power, but due to the high proportion of bauxite exports in local fiscal revenue, the government is difficult to intervene in supply on a large scale. Domestic mine governance policies will form long - term constraints on domestic ore and support global ore prices to some extent [21]. Alumina - Domestic - In August, the domestic alumina output was 8.1904 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.6%. From January to August, the cumulative output was 61.81 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.7%. The national alumina production capacity is 104.62 million tons (excluding zombie capacity), with an operating capacity of 97.95 million tons and an operating rate of 93.6% [22]. - The alumina supply continues to recover when there are profits. There are new capacity plans in 2025 and 2026, with over 8 million tons of new projects in 2026, and the supply pressure in the second half of 2025 still exists [29][30][32]. Alumina - Overseas - There are many new production plans for overseas alumina in 2025 and 2026, with a total of 10 million tons in 2025 and 8.5 million tons in 2026. The overseas alumina supply is in a state of oversupply [34]. Alumina - Strategy - The alumina industry returns to cost - based pricing. High - cost projects in Shanxi and Henan need to withdraw to repair the supply - demand balance sheet. The Q4 price bottom may test 2700 - 2800 yuan, and mid - term long positions can be considered below 2700 yuan [47]. Electrolytic Aluminum Cost - The current real - time full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is over 16,000 yuan per ton, and the industry's theoretical profit is over 4,000 yuan per ton. The cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum in Q4 is expected to decline, with the cost center dropping to 15,500 - 16,500 yuan per ton [51]. Supply - Domestic Electrolytic Aluminum - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply has been released as expected, with a net import of 1.56 million tons of primary aluminum from January to August, and the import scale of Russian aluminum exceeding expectations. There will still be a small amount of capacity release in Q4 2025, with a total of 370,000 tons, and the output in 2025 is expected to be 44.025 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [59][62]. Supply - Overseas Electrolytic Aluminum - The overseas electrolytic aluminum supply shows a slight increasing trend in 2025. The amount of electrolytic aluminum capacity to be increased and restarted in Q4 is 290,000 tons. The overseas supply pressure will gradually increase from 2026, mainly concentrated in Chinese - funded projects in Indonesia [64][66][67]. Consumption - From January to August, the cumulative consumption of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The demand in the first half of the year was better than expected, but the photovoltaic demand will definitely weaken in the second half of the year, the growth rate of household appliance demand is under pressure, and the automobile demand has a downward risk. The demand in Q4 will improve compared with Q3, but the year - on - year growth rate will face greater downward pressure [72]. Balance Sheet & Core Viewpoints - The macro - environment has long - term uncertainties. The long - term supply - demand of global electrolytic aluminum is generally healthy. The aluminum price in Q4 is supported by low supply and inventory, but the demand is not very optimistic, and the price does not have a basis for rapid upward movement. The recommended strategy is to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices in the medium - long term and maintain rolling operations [91].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The US economy showed resilience in Q2 with an upward - revised GDP growth rate, which led to a short - term rebound in the US dollar index. The bond market at the end of September is more likely to fluctuate rather than decline unilaterally. In the commodity market, different products have different trends due to various factors such as policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal factors [1][2][3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed official Goolsbee said the job market is cooling while inflation is rising. Trump plans to increase tariffs on kitchenware and other products starting from October 1, 2025. The US Q2 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%. Gold prices fluctuated and rose with increased intraday volatility. Short - term gold prices are expected to remain high, but there is a risk of correction due to profit - taking [9][10][11] 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump plans to impose 100% tariffs on brand and patented drugs and 25% tariffs on imported heavy - duty trucks from October 1, 2025. The US Q2 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, and the August durable goods orders increased by 2.9% month - on - month. The market's expectation of interest - rate cuts decreased, and the risk appetite declined. Short - term US stocks are expected to continue to adjust [13][15][16] 1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to the lowest level since July. Fed official Bowman believes that the weakening job market justifies further interest - rate cuts. The US Q2 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, indicating economic resilience and leading to a short - term rebound in the US dollar index [18][19][20] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank's deputy governor supports the implementation of offshore bond repurchase business in Hong Kong. The central bank conducted 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on September 25, with a net withdrawal of 35 billion yuan. The bond market at the end of September is more likely to fluctuate, and it is expected to continue to find the bottom in the first half of October and may stabilize and rise in the second half [22][23][24] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In August 2025, the national industrial feed production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Argentina resumed the export withholding tax on grains and other agricultural products. The USDA will release the quarterly inventory report on September 30. After the end of Argentina's export tax - exemption policy, the prices of domestic and foreign futures contracts stabilized and are expected to resume a fluctuating trend [26][27][29] 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From September 1 - 25, 2025, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased by 11.31% month - on - month. Argentina resumed the export tax on grains and by - products. The global oil market rebounded, and the trading focus may return to the US biofuel policy. It is recommended to control positions before the National Day holiday [30][31][32] 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In mid - September 2025, the daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 0.6% month - on - month, while the daily output of pig iron increased by 0.7% and that of steel products increased by 5.4%. As of September 25, the inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly. The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate and rebound before the holiday [33][34][35] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The physical inventory of 36 sample points of red dates decreased slightly. The futures price of the main contract closed higher. The supply in Xinjiang is normal, and the demand in the distribution areas is stable. The price is under pressure due to high inventory and weak consumption, and the fundamentals are bearish [37][38] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn and corn starch by starch sugar products decreased this week. The opening rate of North China's starch plants increased, and the inventory decreased seasonally. The downstream demand is weak, but the price of the 11 - contract has rebounded recently. It is recommended to widen the price difference between corn and starch at low prices [39][40] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of September 24, 2025, the corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises decreased by 9.49%. The old - crop inventory is decreasing, and the 11 - contract is relatively strong, while the far - month contracts are weak. The new corn is expected to have a good harvest, and the price is expected to be bearish in the medium term [40][41] 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On September 25, the price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable. The market trading was dull, and the price increase was limited. After the pre - holiday replenishment, the coal price is expected to remain in a fluctuating range around the long - term agreement price [42] 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The Baniaka iron ore project in Gabon made key progress. The iron ore price continued to fluctuate. Steel mills maintained low - volume replenishment before the holiday, and the price was supported. The fundamentals are in a dilemma, and the price is expected to remain in a fluctuating range [44] 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - GCL Technology revised the subscription agreement for issuing new shares. The price of polysilicon increased this week, and the production in October is expected to increase. The supply - demand situation is tight, and the price is expected to be difficult to fall in October. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells increased, but the component price remained stable. The short - term component price is expected to fluctuate [45][46][47] 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - China announced new climate goals. Last week, there were no new furnace openings or closures. The southern silicon plants may reduce production in late October. The inventory is expected to increase slightly in September - October and decrease slightly in November - December. It is recommended to go long on industrial silicon at low prices [49][50] 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia announced the conditions for 190 mines to resume operations. The nickel ore price is firm, and the MHP price is strong. The global pure nickel inventory is high, and the nickel price lacks upward momentum. However, there are potential supply disturbances, and the low - valued nickel price has long - term bullish allocation value. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread opportunity [51][52] 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On September 24, the LME lead 0 - 3 spread was at a discount of $40.08 per ton. The downstream enterprises continued to stock up before the holiday, and the lead ingot social inventory continued to decline. The LME lead price fluctuated narrowly, and the Shanghai lead price strengthened. The lead price is expected to fluctuate upward [53][54] 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Galvanized sheet enterprises plan to maintain normal production during the National Day holiday. As of September 25, the seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased. The LME zinc price rebounded, and the Shanghai zinc price has support before the holiday. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and pay attention to the positive spread opportunity [55][56][57] 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The battery - grade lithium carbonate project of Tibet Zabuye Salt Lake was officially put into production. The market is currently in a strong de - stocking reality. The price is expected to be under pressure before the actual resumption of production, and it may enter a downward channel after the demand peak. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy [58] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - As of September 25, the weekly commercial volume of Chinese LPG increased slightly, and the inventory of sample enterprises increased while the port inventory decreased. The price is expected to remain in a low - level fluctuation range [59][60][61] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (PX) - On September 25, the PX price increased. Some domestic PX plants may postpone maintenance and expand production in Q4, and the PTA maintenance plan in Q4 increased. The PX inventory is expected to change from de - stocking to stocking. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [63][64] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA increased, and the basis remained stable. The terminal orders increased slightly, and the PTA inventory is expected to decrease slightly in September - October and increase in November. The price is expected to fluctuate, and a band - trading strategy is recommended [65][66][67] 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - As of September 19, the US natural gas inventory increased by 75 Bcf week - on - week. The natural gas price is expected to be supported in early winter but may be under pressure later. The European natural gas inventory accumulation rate slowed down, and the price may rebound in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [68][69] 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On September 25, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong had sporadic changes. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is average. The price is expected to weaken in the later stage. The downward space of the futures price is limited [70][71] 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was mostly stable. The futures price of the main contract continued to rise. The fundamentals of pulp are not good, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [72][73][74] 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of domestic PVC powder market fluctuated strongly. The futures price fluctuated strongly, but the downstream procurement was not active. The fundamentals are weak, but the low valuation makes it difficult for the price to fall further. The impact of domestic policy support should be monitored [75] 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - This week, the output of Chinese styrene decreased slightly. The styrene price fluctuated narrowly, and the basis weakened. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [76][77][79] 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - China announced the 2035 carbon - reduction target, and the "National Carbon Market Development Report (2025)" was released. The trading volume of the national carbon market did not increase significantly, and the price stabilized. The supply - demand structure is balanced and loose, and the CEA price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [80][81][82] 2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Hapag - Lloyd announced a price increase starting from October 15. The European line futures price continued to be strong. The price increase may not be implemented, and the price is expected to be affected by funds and sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see or go short lightly [83][84]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View Since the first half of 2025, power demand has turned negative, and coal prices have accelerated their decline. In July, coal supply actively controlled production, pushing coal prices back above the long - term agreement price of 670 yuan. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the negative growth of thermal power continues, and it is difficult to boost the daily consumption of thermal power under the suppression of new energy installations. Coal prices above 700 yuan/ton put some pressure on the costs of marginal power plants and are unlikely to break through significantly. However, the supply side will maintain active production control, and with factors such as winter stockpiling, it is expected that thermal coal prices will remain in a range of 650 - 720 yuan/ton. The negative growth of daily power consumption is difficult to reverse in the short term, and attention should be paid to the long - term production control policies and implementation on the supply side [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Contents 3.1 Port Coal Price - In the third quarter, the "anti - involution" policy dominated the coal price trend. The price of port 5500K coal oscillated upwards from a minimum of 620 yuan and closed at 707 yuan/ton at the end of September. This price increase was mainly driven by upstream and policy initiatives, with the demand side passively accepting. Chemical and cement demand improved quarter - on - quarter in the third quarter, while power consumption continued to show negative growth [5]. 3.2 Demand - **Thermal Power Impact**: In summer, poor hydropower generation led to a passive increase in thermal power consumption. After September, with the improvement of temperature and rainfall, the national CCTD power consumption has been showing continuous year - on - year negative growth, and power plant inventories have increased passively [10]. - **Non - power Industries**: The performance of non - power industries remains divided. The chemical industry's production rate and coal consumption continue to grow, while the cement industry maintains negative growth [16]. 3.3 Anti - involution Policy - **Policy Comparison**: Compared with the 2015 - 2016 anti - involution policy, the 2025 policy has a different background, targeting more industries. The 2025 policy initially focused on the new energy field and later spread to coal, breeding, and basic energy - chemical products. The policy requires strict control of coal mine over - production, with self - inspections in August and national energy bureau re - inspections in September [21]. - **Impact on Production**: Under the anti - involution policy, coal mine production rates are difficult to return to the first - half high. From July to August, the year - on - year decline in raw coal production was over 3%. Shanxi and Inner Mongolia had the most significant declines, and high - frequency data shows that Shaanxi's production rate has been low since September [23][24]. 3.4 Import - **Import Trend**: In the first half of the year, the surplus of coal supply and demand was mainly offset by reducing imported coal. From January to July, the cumulative coal imports in the country were 257 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13%. Since August, the continuous expansion of the price difference between domestic and foreign coal has attracted a rapid return of imported coal. In August, the import volume of thermal coal quickly rebounded to 32 million tons, approaching the level of the same period last year [33][38]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - **Supply - Demand Table**: The report provides a revised supply - demand balance table for thermal coal from 2019 to 2025E, showing changes in total capacity, raw coal production, clean coal production, imported coal, exports, total supply, and total demand [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the crude oil industry is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply-side changes are expected to be the dominant factor in pricing, while the demand side currently lacks a significant growth driver. OPEC+ aims to increase production to maintain market share, but actual growth may fall short of targets, weakening the impact of supply increases on the market. Non-OPEC+ supply in South America is expected to gradually increase, while low oil prices continue to suppress US shale oil production. The market anticipates supply growth, but the lack of significant inventory accumulation indicates that the risk of oversupply remains to be verified. Geopolitical conflicts introduce many uncertainties, with the stability of Russian supply likely to be the focus of future geopolitical trading. Brent crude oil prices are expected to oscillate within the range of $60 - $75 per barrel in the short term. If geopolitical conflicts lead to a substantial supply disruption, oil prices could face significant upward pressure [5][80] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 25Q3 Oil Price Trend Review - Narrow Oscillation, Declining Volatility - After a pulse-like fluctuation caused by geopolitical conflicts in mid-to-late June, oil prices in Q3 remained in a narrow range, with the benchmark oil spread falling from its peak. Oil price volatility continued to decline, but the central price was higher than in Q2, with an expected average Brent price of around $68 per barrel, a slight increase from $66 per barrel in Q2. Geopolitical conflicts have not significantly affected supply, but there is a high risk of escalated sanctions against Russia by the US and Europe, which may become a key trading factor in the next stage. In Q3, the supply-demand fundamentals were balanced, with a moderate decline in inventory. Despite OPEC+ accelerating production target increases, the oversupply issue was not prominent during the peak demand season, resulting in a lack of clear directional drivers for oil prices [15] 3.2 OPEC+ Firmly Maintains Market Share, Uncertainty Remains on Whether Actual Production Increases Will Meet Targets - Since April, OPEC+ has accelerated the exit from voluntary production cuts, completing the 2.2 million barrels per day cut one year ahead of schedule by the end of September. On October 1st, OPEC+ began to exit the second layer of 1.66 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts, but the full or partial exit will depend on market conditions. Although the planned production increase in October is much smaller than in previous months, the moderate recovery of oil prices in Q3 and the existence of overproduction are the main reasons for continued production increases. - Compared to the increase in nominal production targets, actual production potential has a greater impact on the market. From Q2 onwards, although OPEC+ has continuously raised production targets, oil prices rebounded moderately in July - August, as actual production increases were less than expected, preventing a supply shock. Therefore, whether actual production can meet the planned increase in Q4 will be the focus of market attention. - According to OPEC monthly reports, the production of 8 voluntary production cut countries increased to 32.18 million barrels per day in August, lower than the target increase of 1.92 million barrels per day. Iraq and Russia's production increases were not significant, both remaining below the target by about 100,000 barrels per day on average, while Kazakhstan has been overproducing by about 320,000 barrels per day. Other countries have generally achieved production increases, with Saudi Arabia temporarily overproducing in June to address supply disruptions but compensating in July. - There are differences in the market's assessment of some member countries' production. According to the IEA, most member countries are overproducing. OPEC+'s updated compensation production cut plan shows that most countries still need to make up for overproduction, with a total of 4.78 million barrels per day to be compensated by the end of next June, indicating that some members are still overproducing. - Saudi Arabia and the UAE have significant theoretical idle production capacities of nearly 2.5 million and 1 million barrels per day respectively, with high growth potential. Other members are limited by idle capacity, and their actual production increase speed is likely to be lower than the nominal target. - In terms of exports, OPEC+ production cut countries' exports have slightly recovered from their low levels in the second half of last year, but the upward trend is not obvious. The average export volume of 8 voluntary production cut countries from April - August was 20.26 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 410,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's exports increased only in June, while the UAE's exports have been rising since Q2. If geopolitical conflicts lead to a decline in Russian or Iranian exports, it may benefit the exports of other Middle Eastern oil types [18][23][28] 3.3 Geopolitical Conflicts Persist, the Stability of Russian Supply May Become the Focus 3.3.1 The Stability of Russian Supply Faces Increasing Challenges - Russia's supply has declined moderately this year, with an average seaborne crude oil export volume of about 3.36 million barrels per day in the first 8 months, a year-on-year decrease of 150,000 barrels per day. In July - August, due to drone attacks on refineries, more crude oil was exported, leading to higher-than-seasonal export volumes. Russia's seaborne crude oil exports are relatively stable, with exports to China and India at 1.14 million and 1.72 million barrels per day respectively, both showing a year-on-year decrease of about 80,000 barrels per day. Russia's pipeline exports to Hungary and Slovakia via the Druzhba pipeline remain at about 200,000 barrels per day, while exports to the Czech Republic have basically stopped since Q2. - Russian energy facilities have been increasingly targeted by drone attacks since August, with refineries and ports being the main targets. On September 12th, the Primorsk port was attacked for the first time, increasing the risk of supply disruptions. In August, there were 15 reports of drone attacks on Russian refineries, with a record high of 1.5 million barrels per day of refining capacity taken offline. Although the increase in attack frequency does not necessarily lead to a significant increase in processing losses, it still has a negative impact on oil product exports. Russia's oil product exports in the first 8 months were 2.36 million barrels per day, a year-on-year decrease of 150,000 barrels per day, with diesel exports reaching a new low in August. - The EU and the US have adopted a tougher stance towards Russia. In July, the EU passed the 18th round of sanctions, including lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil to $47.6 per barrel and banning the import of oil products refined from Russian crude oil starting from January 21, 2026. The EU is also formulating the 19th round of sanctions. The US has threatened to impose high "secondary tariffs" on countries importing Russian oil, and has called on G7 countries to adopt stricter sanctions. Although the details and implementation of these policies are uncertain, the market has not fully priced in their potential impact on supply. - China, India, and Turkey are the main buyers of Russian crude oil, accounting for 46%, 36%, and 6% of Russia's exports respectively. Currently, there is no sign of major buyers significantly reducing their imports. However, due to the increasing risk of sanctions, there is a high risk of a decline in imports from Turkey and India in the future. If this happens, the surplus Urals oil will need to find new buyers. China theoretically has the capacity to adjust trade flows, but the Urals oil is not economically viable for Chinese refineries, and if sanctions intensify, it may also affect the procurement willingness of Chinese state-owned refineries [31][33][38] 3.3.2 Declining Transportation Efficiency Leads to a Marginal Decrease in Iranian Crude Oil Exports - Iranian crude oil production has shown a marginal decline since June, dropping to about 3.2 million barrels per day in August. Exports have also decreased slightly since June, with preliminary data showing 1.4 million barrels per day in August, compared to an average of 1.65 million barrels per day in other months. The main factor affecting Iranian exports is the US's escalating sanctions, which have led to a reduction in the number of unsanctioned vessels, slower delivery, and an increase in floating storage to nearly 27 million barrels at the end of August. The discount on Iranian crude oil has widened from -$1 per barrel at the beginning of the year to about -$6 per barrel in mid-September. Weak demand and approaching year-end import quota shortages may limit Iranian oil procurement by independent refineries in Shandong. However, due to the economic advantages of sensitive oil, Iranian supply is unlikely to decline significantly without a supply disruption at the source [45] 3.4 Non-OPEC+ Supply Growth is Highly Certain 3.4.1 South American Production Growth Outlook is Stable - South American production is gradually increasing, and the relatively stable long-term oil price outlook supports the commissioning of deep-water projects. The period before the second half of next year is a concentrated commissioning period, with a focus on Brazil and Guyana. From the second half of 2026, the growth momentum of non-OPEC+ production is expected to slow down, reducing the negative impact on supply-demand balance. - Brazil's estimated crude oil production in the first seven months was 3.65 million barrels per day, an increase of about 300,000 barrels per day compared to last year. After the commissioning of new offshore production platforms, capacity utilization has gradually increased. Production is expected to stabilize at 3.9 - 4 million barrels per day after this round of commissioning, with growth rates of about 350,000 and 170,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 2026 respectively. - Guyana's production in the first 7 months was stable at 640,000 barrels per day. The Yellowtail project was commissioned ahead of schedule in early August, and exports began in late August. With a capacity of 250,000 barrels per day, production is expected to reach 890,000 barrels per day by the end of this year and remain at this level until the end of next year. The Uaru project, with a planned capacity of 250,000 barrels per day, is expected to be commissioned at the end of next year, bringing production close to 1 million barrels per day. The production growth rates in 2025 and 2026 are expected to be 130,000 barrels per day each [49][50] 3.4.2 The Suppressed Growth Potential of US Shale Oil is Difficult to Reverse Significantly - According to EIA data, the average US crude oil production in the first half of the year was 13.39 million barrels per day, an increase of 180,000 barrels per day compared to last year, with a further slowdown in the growth rate. The number of US oil rigs has been declining significantly since late April, reaching 416 by the second week of September, the lowest level since October 2021, a decrease of about 15% from the peak in March. The number of fracturing equipment has also decreased, reaching 169 by the second week of September, returning to the level in April 2021, a decrease of about 20% from the peak. Low oil prices have significantly suppressed the capital expenditure willingness of US upstream producers. - Productivity data from shale oil regions show a slight decline in the DUC number in the Permian region, which has supplemented the well completion number to some extent. The improvement in well production efficiency is mainly due to the increasing efficiency of rig use, with the number of new wells per rig in the Permian region rising to 1.7. However, the new well production/well completion number ratio has not shown a significant upward trend, indicating that producers are currently focusing on optimizing capital use efficiency while controlling capital expenditure. Given the expected breakeven price of about $60 per barrel and the rapid decline in rig numbers after the oil price drop in Q2, shale oil producers remain highly sensitive to medium-term oil prices. Therefore, without a significant increase in the oil price center, producers are unlikely to significantly increase capital expenditure. The EIA's September short-term energy outlook predicts a 210,000 barrels per day increase in US crude oil production in 2025 and a 140,000 barrels per day decrease in 2026 [54][58] 3.5 Global Inventory Patterns are Divergent, and Demand Growth is Expected to Remain at a Low Rate 3.5.1 China's Actual Consumption is Affected by New Energy Substitution, while Stockpiling Demand is Stable - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's above-scale industrial crude oil processing volume in the first eight months was 488 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. The monthly processing volume has significantly recovered since June, approaching the 2023 high, but the refinery operating rate remains divergent. Independent refineries in Shandong have an operating rate of less than 50% for most of the time, indicating that low refining margins and peak demand for major oil products continue to have a negative impact on their operations. State-owned refineries have maintained an operating rate of over 80% since the end of Q2 maintenance, supporting the processing volume. Customs data shows that China's crude oil imports in the first eight months were 376 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.5%, maintaining a low growth rate. The production of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in the first eight months, and the yield of these products has dropped to about 55% this year. - China's gasoline and diesel consumption shows no significant improvement, as the substitution effect of new energy vehicles and LNG heavy trucks continues to suppress demand growth. The penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles has slowed down, reaching about 54.5% in August, slightly higher than last year's peak. The penetration rate of pure electric heavy trucks and LNG heavy trucks has approached 20%. - According to Kpler data, China's onshore crude oil inventory has been increasing, with both commercial and strategic reserves rising. As of the end of August, the inventory increased by 47 million barrels compared to the end of last year, equivalent to nearly 200,000 barrels per day. Industry sources indicate that an oil price below $65 per barrel will stimulate continuous stockpiling demand, which may further increase if oil prices decline [61][63] 3.5.2 OECD Inventories are Low, and the Risk of Oversupply has not Materialized - In Q3, the gasoline crack spread in the European and American markets was similar to last year's level in summer and significantly higher than last year's level since late August. The diesel crack spread has been rising since June, supported by moderate demand improvement and low inventory. The stable crack spread of major oil products has supported the growth of processing volumes in major refining regions. Although about 600,000 barrels per day of refining capacity is expected to be permanently shut down in the European and American markets, the US refinery processing volume increased by 230,000 barrels per day year-on-year, while the EU processing volume decreased by about 140,000 barrels per day. Processing volumes in regions with new refining capacity have generally increased, with Nigeria's crude oil processing volume reaching about 440,000 barrels per day in the first seven months, and preliminary shipping data indicating a significant increase in net oil product exports in Q3. - Global onshore crude oil inventory has been rising since Q2, but the increase is mainly concentrated in the Chinese market. OECD market inventories remain low, with changes in line with seasonal patterns. European and American gasoline and diesel inventories are also generally low, with gasoline inventories showing a seasonal decline similar to last year, while diesel inventories are significantly lower than last year. Diesel consumption has increased significantly year-on-year, with US diesel consumption increasing by 150,000 barrels per day in the first half of the year according to EIA data. In the European market, improved manufacturing sentiment supports marginal demand improvement, but imports are constrained. European gasoline consumption increased by nearly 100,000 barrels per day in the first seven months, while US gasoline consumption was basically flat in the first half of the year, with high-frequency data indicating a slightly lower consumption during the traditional peak season compared to last year. The low OECD inventories indicate that the expected inventory build-up under continuous production increases has not occurred. - The relatively stable crack spread and low inventory in the European and American markets suggest that the supply-demand balance of major oil products has not deteriorated significantly. However, the market remains cautious about the demand growth outlook. The three major institutions expect low global demand growth rates this year, with the EIA and IEA forecasting growth rates of about 700,000 and 900,000 barrels per day respectively. The EIA and OPEC expect an improvement in growth next year, while the IEA maintains a low growth forecast. According to seasonal patterns, oil product inventories are expected to accumulate in Q4. If the inventory build-up rate in Q4 is not significantly faster than in previous years, the demand side is unlikely to drive a significant downward break in oil prices [66][68][77] 3.6 Investment Recommendations - Supply-side changes are expected to continue to dominate pricing, while the demand side lacks a significant growth driver due to new energy substitution and trade frictions. OPEC+ aims to increase production to maintain market share, but actual growth may be lower than targets, weakening the impact of supply increases on the market. Non-OPEC+ supply in South America is expected to gradually increase, while low oil prices continue to suppress US shale oil production. The market anticipates supply growth, but the lack of significant inventory accumulation indicates that the risk of oversupply remains to be verified. Geopolitical conflicts introduce many uncertainties, with the stability of Russian supply likely to be the focus of future geopolitical trading. Brent crude oil prices are expected to oscillate within the range of $60 -

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the pulp market are persistently weak, and pulp prices are expected to oscillate to find a bottom. The pulp market showed limited changes in the third quarter, and it is predicted that there will also be a lack of variables in the fourth quarter. The weak fundamental state of pulp is difficult to improve [22]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In the third quarter, pulp prices continued to oscillate, and port wood pulp inventories were higher than the same period in previous years. The overall pulp market was weak. In July, the anti - involution wave drove up commodities, causing pulp prices to rise, but they fell back to low levels as the wave receded [3][4]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Supply Side - From January to August, the cumulative imports of softwood pulp were 5.743 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The cumulative imports of hardwood pulp were 11.153 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. Due to the continuous capacity expansion of hardwood pulp at home and abroad in the past two years, its supply - demand situation has deteriorated more significantly than that of softwood pulp. The needle - broad price difference has remained high and has recently seen a slight correction [9]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand Side - This year, the downstream paper - making industry has remained in a state of poor profits. The production profits of offset paper and coated paper declined significantly in the third quarter, highlighting weak terminal demand. The profits of white cardboard and household paper continued to remain at low levels. The low - profit situation has led to generally low operating rates in the paper - making industry, and the demand for pulp is weak. Although the operating rate of coated paper has increased to some extent due to less new capacity expansion, it is still difficult to change the overall weak demand for pulp [15][21]. 4. Price Trend Analysis - Currently, there are no bright spots on the demand side of pulp, and there are no signs of supply contraction. The fundamentals are continuously weak, so there is no upward driving force for prices. However, the current futures price is close to the cost of high - cost overseas pulp mills. Further price declines may stimulate domestic speculative replenishment demand, which will support pulp prices. Also, the exchange has temporarily excluded Russian softwood pulp from the delivery scope, reducing the low - cost warehouse receipts available for delivery in contracts after January, which also provides some support for the market [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including finance, commodities, and shipping, providing insights into market trends, news events, and investment suggestions for different assets [1][2][3][4][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US new home sales in August reached an annualized 800,000 units, significantly above expectations. The US and EU finalized a 15% tariff agreement, leading to a gold price correction of over 1% and a strong rise in the US dollar index [12][13] - Short - term gold prices face a correction risk due to profit - taking, and investors are advised to reduce positions before the holiday [14] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Intel is seeking investment and cooperation from Apple, and the US has officially lowered tariffs on EU cars. Fed official Daly's remarks indicate uncertainty in future interest rate cuts [15][16][17] - While there may be short - term disturbances due to valuation concerns, an overall bullish approach is recommended [18] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - South Korea's president met with the US Treasury Secretary, and the UK central bank has internal policy differences. The US has reduced tariffs on EU cars to 15%, and the US dollar is expected to trade in a short - term range [20][21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Eight departments jointly issued a document to promote digital consumption, and Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure. The STAR Market has strengthened, driving the broader market up. The current market is rising on low volume, and investors are advised to take partial profits [22][23][24] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation and a 401.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market has declined due to tightened liquidity and rising stock markets. A strategy of holding a steepening curve is recommended [25][26][28] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The market anticipates that the USDA's weekly export sales report will show a net increase of 60 - 160 tons in US soybean exports. China is rumored to continue purchasing Argentine soybeans, and ANEC has lowered Brazil's September soybean export forecast [29] - The bearish impact of Argentina's export tax exemption may be fully reflected in the price, and the price is expected to trade in a range. Continued attention should be paid to policy changes [29] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia's July palm oil exports decreased, and production and inventory increased. The oil market rebounded slightly, but the short - term rebound space is limited. Investors are advised to wait and see or take small long positions [30][31] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Korea has imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese and Japanese carbon and alloy steel hot - rolled coils. Global crude steel production in August increased slightly year - on - year. Steel prices have rebounded, but the upward space is restricted by fundamentals. A range - bound approach is recommended before the holiday, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand [32][33][35] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The corn starch production rate has increased, and inventory has decreased. The current inventory pressure is manageable, and the price difference between rice and flour may be undervalued. Buying to widen the spread may have a safety margin [36][37] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn inventory at the four northern ports has decreased. The price of the 11 - contract has rebounded, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. The 11 - contract is expected to decline more than the 01 - contract after the holiday [37][38] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal at northern ports has remained stable. After the pre - holiday restocking, the coal price is expected to trade in a range around the long - term agreement price [39] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Jujubes) - Some jujubes in Xinjiang are starting to wrinkle, and there are still some green fruits. The futures price is expected to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to the development of jujubes in the production area and the purchasing situation in the sales area [40][41] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - SNIM plans to increase iron ore production by 2031 and has discovered new resources. The terminal finished product inventory has some pressure, but the raw material side is strong. The iron ore price is expected to be well - supported, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand and inventory [43] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Orient Hope is conducting maintenance on its polysilicon production line. The polysilicon price is expected to be stable in October. The short - term futures price is expected to trade in a wide range between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [44][48] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - China's August import and export data of primary polysiloxane showed mixed trends. The price of industrial silicon is expected to trade between 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, but chasing the price up should be done with caution [49][50] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The global copper market had a supply surplus of 101,000 tons from January to July. Grasberg copper mine's accident will lead to a significant production loss, and the copper price is expected to rise in the short term. A short - term long strategy is recommended [51][54][55] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Trump administration is seeking to acquire up to 10% of Lithium Americas. The short - term price may be supported by pre - holiday restocking, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. A short - term cautious approach and a medium - term short - selling strategy are recommended [56][57] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia has suspended 190 mining enterprises, including 39 nickel mines. The nickel price lacks upward momentum, but it has long - term investment value. A positive spread arbitrage opportunity is recommended [58][59] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead market is in a deep contango. The domestic lead market is expected to trade in a bullish range. A strategy of buying on dips and a positive spread arbitrage strategy are recommended [60][61] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc market has a high cash concentration, and the domestic zinc market is under pressure from the exchange rate. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading, and a positive spread arbitrage strategy is recommended [61][62] 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price in East China has declined. The price is expected to trade in a low - level range in the short term [63][66][67] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US EIA crude oil inventory decreased, and a Russian refinery was attacked. The oil price is expected to be affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short term [68][69][70] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The terminal demand for PX has improved structurally, but the PX market is expected to trade in a weak range in the short term [71][73][74] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA market has seen a partial increase in sales, but the short - term outlook is weak. The price is expected to trade in a weak range [75][76][77] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - Urea inventory has increased. The supply pressure is rising, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the export situation and the price range of the 2601 contract [78][79] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has declined locally. The market is expected to be stable, and the downward space of the futures price is limited [80][81][82] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market price is stable. The market is expected to trade in a weak range due to poor fundamentals [83][84][85] 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC market price is oscillating in a narrow range. The fundamentals are weak, but the low price limits the downward space. Attention should be paid to domestic policy support [86] 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip factory's export price has increased slightly. The demand may be over - drawn in the short term, and attention should be paid to production cuts and new capacity [90][91] 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market price is stable. A strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances [92][93] 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass market price in Shandong is stable. The futures price has risen due to policy expectations, but the fundamental pressure may limit the upward space. A long - glass 2601 and short - soda ash 2601 arbitrage strategy is recommended [94] 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The China - Europe Railway Express has resumed operation. The container freight rate futures market is expected to be volatile, and a wait - and - see or short - selling strategy for the October contract is recommended [95][96]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bottle chip industry is "Oscillating" [5] Core Views of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of the bottle chip industry remains loose, and the absolute price is dominated by polyester raw materials. Domestic demand growth falls short of expectations this year. Although exports maintain a high - growth rate of over 10%, exports alone cannot digest the supply increment. The previous joint production cuts by bottle chip factories only postponed the inventory pressure rather than fundamentally resolving the supply - demand imbalance. The industry's breakthrough depends on future demand growth [3][65]. - In the fourth quarter, bottle chip demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply side faces the dual pressure of the resumption of previously shut - down devices and the launch of new production capacity, which may lead to a new inventory accumulation phase. The disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 450 yuan/ton, and the current high - level processing fee lacks sustainable support [3][67]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. 2025 Q3 Bottle Chip Market Review - In the semi - annual report, it was proposed that the joint production cuts by bottle chip factories and the seasonal peak demand might bring about a temporary improvement in supply - demand, but the supply - demand contradiction in the bottle chip industry could not be completely resolved in the short term, and industry profits would likely remain sluggish. The absolute price was driven by the cost side and could not show an independent trend. - In Q3, bottle chip prices continued to be cost - driven, following polyester raw materials up and down twice. The main contract price declined slightly compared to the end of Q2. Bottle chip factories implemented previous production cut decisions, and with the support of rigid demand during the seasonal peak, the bottle chip processing fee mainly showed a mild recovery [12]. 2. Supply: Q4 Bottle Chip Supply May Moderately Increase - In Q3, there was an obvious reduction in the bottle chip supply. From July to August 2025, the total bottle chip output was 2.875 million tons, with the monthly average output 8.7% lower than that in Q2 [15]. - Looking forward to Q4, bottle chip supply may moderately increase compared to Q3, but it is unlikely to reach the Q2 peak again: - The new production capacity in Q4 will contribute limitedly to the actual supply increment this year. There are still plans to launch new production capacity in Q4, but the production release of the 670,000 - ton/year new capacity is mostly concentrated in next year [20]. - The joint production cuts did not achieve the manufacturers' expected results. Although the spot theoretical processing fee improved marginally, the inventory reduction was slow, and the processing interval was still on the verge of loss [21]. - The performance of domestic and foreign sales orders is poor. With the approaching of the seasonal off - season and the lack of new orders, bottle chip factories have little motivation to significantly increase production [26]. 3. Domestic Demand: Growth Below Expectations and Seasonal Weakening in Q4 - In the soft drink industry, the demand is weak. From January to August 2025, the retail sales of beverage - related products only increased by 0.2% year - on - year, much lower than the growth rate of social consumer goods. This is due to the high - base effect in 2024 and the limited impact of policies on beverage consumption. Additionally, lightweight packaging in the beverage industry may offset some bottle chip demand [28]. - In the edible oil sector, from January to August 2025, the cumulative output of edible vegetable oil was 34.054 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3%, and the national catering revenue was 3.648 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 3.6%, both with slower growth rates compared to last year [36]. - In the sheet material field, the demand for electronic pallets has decreased, but the demand for daily necessities and fresh milk tea packaging has increased. The price war on take - out platforms from April to July boosted the demand for sheet materials. However, looking forward to Q4, with the end of the price war and the drop in temperature, bottle chip domestic demand is expected to weaken [37][42]. 4. Exports: "Involution" Spill - over, Q4 Bottle Chip Exports Expected to Maintain High Growth - In 2025, bottle chip exports increased strongly. From January to August, the export volume of bottle chips under the tariff number 39076110 reached 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In Q3, the overall order - taking of bottle chip factories was poor, and the export volume decreased slightly quarter - on - quarter [45]. - There are ongoing trade frictions overseas, but their impact on the overall export pattern is limited. For example, Malaysia's anti - dumping ruling and Canada's anti - dumping investigation, and the previous anti - dumping in Mexico. However, Wankai's zero - tax rate in Mexico may change the situation of sharply reduced exports to Mexico [47][48]. - Looking forward to Q4, the total bottle chip export volume is still expected to be high: overseas supply growth is limited, the profit space for exports is still higher than that for domestic sales, and the current low export price has attracted more overseas buyers. The monthly average export volume is expected to remain above 500,000 tons, and the annual export volume is expected to exceed 6.5 million tons [55]. 5. Investment Suggestions - From a fundamental perspective, the supply - demand pattern of the bottle chip industry remains loose, and the absolute price is dominated by polyester raw materials. The industry's breakthrough depends on future demand growth [3][65]. - Strategically, in Q4, the bottle chip market may enter a new inventory accumulation phase, and the disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 450 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of shorting the disk processing fee when it reaches the upper limit of the range [3][67].

季度报告-PVC/烧碱 PVC：至暗时刻，烧碱：上下两难 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | PVC：震荡/烧碱：震荡 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 24 | 年 | 9 | 月 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★PVC：四季度出口受阻叠加产能投放，PVC 或将迎来至暗时刻 三季度 PVC 共有 140 万吨/年的装置试车投产，产能增速达到了 5% 左右，是近几年的一个小高峰。这会显著增加四季度 PVC 的供应 压力。 能 源 8 月印度 PVC 反倾销终裁结果出炉，中国 PVC 企业面临的关税被 大幅提高，最终岁额显著高于其他国家和地区。这或将造成四季度 中国 PVC 出口环比下降。而房地产在三季度仍呈现持续走弱态势， 预计四季度也难有好转。总的来看四季度 PVC 需求端难言乐观。 供增需减之下，PVC 或迎来至暗时刻。 化 ★烧碱：四季度或仍是宽幅震荡，上下两难 工 三季度烧碱价格呈现出宽幅震荡的状态，走势完全符合我们在半年 报《PVC：危中孕机，烧碱：宽幅震荡》的预期。展望四季度来看， 电 ...

基本面为锚，关注预期驱动 曹璐 资深分析师(化工) 从业资格号：F3013434 投资咨询号：Z0013049 行情回顾 曹璐 化工资深分析师；从业资格号：F3013434；投资咨询号：Z0013049 u 7月份开始，玻璃盘面一度大幅拉涨。"反内卷"引发了市场对玻璃行业落后产能淘汰的猜测，商品市场多 头情绪高涨，玻璃期价表现强势。 u 7月下旬至8月底，随着"反内卷"交易情绪告一段落， "供给侧改革"预期落空，基本面压力下，玻璃盘 面大幅下挫，基本跌回本轮上涨起点。 u 9月以来，玻璃走势再度偏强，在此期间宏观和基本面均较为利多玻璃：一方面反内卷交易仍时有扰动；另 一方面，地产基本面持续走弱，政策存在继续加码预期。此外金九银十旺季背景下，玻璃终端需求存在边 际改善预期。但随着盘面升水现货幅度扩大，加上市场多头情绪降温，9月下半月以来，盘面再度有所回调。 基本面分析——供给端 玻璃期现货价格 全国各主要区域浮法玻璃市场价 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 24/01 24/03 24/05 24/07 24/09 24/11 ...