1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - 4Q25 macro - tone is generally favorable for precious metals, but price volatility is expected to increase. Market expectations of interest - rate cut rhythm, economic outlook interpretations, and supply bottlenecks of platinum and palladium will drive price fluctuations and asset performance differentiation [13]. - For non - ferrous metals, the contradiction lies in whether macro - level benefits can offset micro - level demand weakness and supply contradictions. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely between the bottom range provided by macro - level easing expectations and the top range formed by industrial fundamentals pressure [2][45]. - The core drivers of black commodities will revolve around policy uncertainty and demand effectiveness. Prices are supported in the early stage but face significant downward risks in the middle and later stages of the quarter [3][57]. - The core contradiction of energy and chemical commodities is whether macro - level easing expectations can offset the fundamental pressure at the bottom of the industrial cycle. 4Q25 will be a bottom - grinding process [4][76]. - For agricultural products, export - country control measures may create artificial supply shortages and upward price risks, while import - country procurement rhythms, quota management, and domestic substitution policies form downward price pressure. La Nina - induced supply contraction expectations and current supply pressures and weak global macro - demand will drive price trends [5][91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals: Risks after the Interest - Rate Cut "Boot Drops" - **Monetary Policy Path Risk**: The Fed's interest - rate cut in September started a new round of easing, but the rhythm, depth, and end - point of the subsequent path are uncertain. Hawkish risks (slower - than - expected rate cuts) will push up the US dollar index and real yields of US Treasuries, negatively affecting precious metals. Dovish risks (faster - than - expected rate cuts) will be a major positive for all precious metals [13][23][26]. - **Economic "Landing" Form Risk**: The market will sway among "soft landing", "hard landing", and premature recovery scenarios in 4Q25. A "soft landing" is beneficial for the precious - metal sector as a whole. A "hard landing" will lead to significant differentiation within the sector, with gold rising and silver, platinum, and palladium potentially falling. Premature recovery trading may cause gold to face pressure while silver and platinum may benefit [29][30][31]. - **Supply - Side and Geopolitical Risk**: Supply - side risks mainly affect platinum and palladium due to their concentrated production in South Africa and Russia. Any production interruption in these countries can cause price surges. Geopolitical risks will increase the volatility of gold and silver, with gold having a more sustainable safe - haven premium [33][35]. - **Structural Market Dynamic Change Risk**: The sustainability of central - bank gold - buying demand is in doubt. The "platinum - for - palladium" substitution in the automotive industry is a long - term negative for palladium and a positive for platinum. Speculative funds in the precious - metal market are profit - seeking and volatile, which can amplify price fluctuations [37][42][44]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals: Macro - Level Benefits and Industrial Weakness Risks - **Macro - Economic Narrative Risk**: The Fed's interest - rate cut provides support for non - ferrous metals, but different economic scenarios ("soft landing", "hard landing", and premature recovery) will have different impacts on non - ferrous metals. A "soft landing" is beneficial for copper, aluminum, and lithium to different extents. A "hard landing" will hit all industrial non - ferrous metals. Premature recovery trading will bring a "Davis double - click" for copper and aluminum [45][46][47]. - **Sino - Foreign Policy - Level Risk**: China's "anti - involution" policies may affect the supply of polysilicon, industrial silicon, and potentially copper and aluminum. Trade frictions, political instability in Guinea, and lithium - mine supply risks in Africa also pose threats to non - ferrous metals [50][52]. - **Supply - Side Bottleneck Risk**: Global copper - mine supply is tight, which is a strong support for copper prices. The resumption time of some lithium mines in China is uncertain, which creates two - way risks for lithium prices [53][55]. 3.3 Black Commodities: Policy Game and Demand Downturn Risks - **Downstream Demand Structural Differentiation and Total Slowdown Risk**: The real - estate industry's weakness suppresses the demand for construction steel and the entire black - commodity chain. The manufacturing industry provides support for plate - type steel, but its demand may face challenges in 4Q25. Infrastructure investment may also slow down, affecting the demand for construction steel [58][59][60]. - **Supply - Side Policy Risk**: The implementation of the "flat - control" policy for crude - steel production is uncertain. Strict implementation will benefit steel prices but harm raw - material prices, while non - implementation or under - implementation will lead to supply - surplus pressure on steel prices [66]. - **Raw - Material Supply - Side Structural Risk**: Iron - ore supply is expected to increase seasonally, which may lead to price declines. Coking - coal supply, especially for high - quality coking coal, is tight, which supports coking - coal and coke prices and squeezes steel - mill profits [70][71]. - **Inventory and Market Structural Risk**: Steel inventories face a cyclical inflection point. If post - holiday demand is weak, it will lead to passive inventory accumulation and price declines. Iron - ore port inventories may accumulate, which will pressure iron - ore prices [74]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals: Long - Term Capacity Clearance and Prolonged Bottom - Grinding Risks - **Geopolitical and Supply - Side Seasonal Risk**: Geopolitical risks, such as the situation in the Red Sea and OPEC+ production policies, can affect oil prices. In winter, natural - gas supply shortages in Iran may increase methanol prices, and LPG supply may also be affected [77][81]. - **Inventory Level and Industrial - Chain Internal Profit Risk**: The global crude - oil market is expected to enter a stocking phase in 4Q25, which may put downward pressure on oil prices. High inventories of some chemicals, such as methanol and LPG, will suppress their prices. Profit - distribution contradictions in the chemical industrial chain are intensifying [83][84][87]. - **Structural Over - Capacity and Industry Profit - Cycle Risk**: The chemical industry is in a long - term over - capacity situation. Polyolefins, methanol, and LPG are severely affected. The process of capacity clearance is slow, and the low - price, low - profit industry pattern will persist [89][90]. 3.5 Agricultural Products: Risks under Policy and Weather Interference - **Key Countries' Policy Risk**: Export - control measures of major agricultural - product exporters can cause price surges, while import - country policies, such as China's procurement and quota management, can limit price increases [92]. - **Terminal Demand Weakness Risk**: Global economic slowdown weakens consumer purchasing power, affecting the demand for cotton, oils, sugars, and feed raw materials. China's internal demand also has structural risks, and changes in bio - fuel policies can affect the demand for corn and vegetable oils [98][100][103]. - **Global Supply Cycle Risk**: The concentrated listing of Northern - Hemisphere autumn - harvest crops brings short - term supply pressure. The long - term supply situation is affected by policies and climate [91]. - **Global Climate Risk**: The evolution towards La Nina poses risks to the upcoming Southern - Hemisphere sowing season and Southeast - Asian production [91].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The upstream and downstream of the photovoltaic glass industry are in a strong game, with the downstream suppressing the price increase sentiment through production cuts and holidays. The price increase expectation for October is likely to fail, and the price of photovoltaic glass may remain stable [2][6] - The inventory of photovoltaic glass manufacturers increased from a decline last week. The supply side has an upward trend, while the demand side has decreased due to component manufacturers reducing purchase orders and taking holidays [1][6] - Due to the weakening cost side, the profitability of the photovoltaic glass industry continued to improve slightly last week, with the current industry gross profit margin at about 3.09% [1][6] Summary by Directory 1. Photovoltaic Glass Weekly Outlook - Supply: Last week, the industry's supply remained stable, with no changes in production lines or kiln blockages. The domestic in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 88,780 tons per day, unchanged from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 68.52%, also unchanged. However, due to the price increase expectation released in the middle of this month, many photovoltaic glass enterprises have started planning new capacity launches [6][11] - Demand: The plan of many photovoltaic glass enterprises to launch new capacity has triggered the resistance of downstream component factories. Recently, downstream component factories have started to reduce purchase orders and have successively stopped production and taken holidays since last week, resulting in a reduction in the demand for photovoltaic glass [6][19] - Inventory: The inventory of photovoltaic glass manufacturers increased from a decline last week. On one hand, the supply side of photovoltaic glass has an upward trend, and on the other hand, the demand side has decreased due to component manufacturers reducing purchase orders and taking holidays [6][22] - Profitability: Due to the weakening cost side, the profitability of the photovoltaic glass industry continued to improve slightly last week, with the current industry gross profit margin at about 3.09% [6][25] 2. Domestic Photovoltaic Glass Industry Chain Data Overview 2.1 Photovoltaic Glass Spot Price - As of September 26, the mainstream price of 2.0mm coated (panel) photovoltaic glass in China was 13 yuan per square meter, unchanged from the previous week; the mainstream price of 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass was 21 yuan per square meter, also unchanged from the previous week. The market is expected to enter the new - month negotiation stage this week [7] 2.2 Supply Side - Last week, the industry's supply remained stable, with no changes in production lines or kiln blockages. The domestic in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 88,780 tons per day, unchanged from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 68.52%, also unchanged. Due to the price increase expectation released in the middle of this month, many photovoltaic glass enterprises have started planning new capacity launches [11] - The document also shows the production line changes of domestic photovoltaic glass since 2025, including cold repairs and ignitions of various enterprises in different regions [18] 2.3 Demand Side - The plan of many photovoltaic glass enterprises to launch new capacity has triggered the resistance of downstream component factories. Recently, downstream component factories have started to reduce purchase orders and have successively stopped production and taken holidays since last week, resulting in a reduction in the demand for photovoltaic glass [19] 2.4 Inventory Side - The inventory of photovoltaic glass manufacturers increased from a decline last week. The supply side has an upward trend, while the demand side has decreased due to component manufacturers reducing purchase orders and taking holidays [22] 2.5 Cost - Profit Side - Due to the weakening cost side, the profitability of the photovoltaic glass industry continued to improve slightly last week, with the current industry gross profit margin at about 3.09% [25] 2.6 Trade Side - From January to August 2025, China's photovoltaic glass export volume increased by 16.5% compared with the same period in 2024. The export of photovoltaic glass remains booming, and the overseas installation demand is relatively strong [32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The gold market has strong performance, with prices hitting new highs, and the silver increase is greater than that of gold. The market focuses on the US government shutdown risk and Trump's tariff risk. The short - term gold price is expected to run at a high level with increased volatility [3][14]. - The treasury bond futures are in the stage of shock bottom - building. After adjustment, the bond market valuation is gradually reasonable. The bond market will gradually desensitize to negative factors and return to fundamental trading [16]. - The demand for动力煤is weak, and the price is expected to remain near the long - term agreement price. Attention should be paid to coal supply policies [4][19]. - The iron ore price is expected to continue the box - type shock, and the trend market needs to wait. Attention should be paid to the demand for finished products after the National Day and the changes in coal supply policies [22]. - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to decline in September, and the inventory - building pressure will slow down significantly. It is recommended to wait and see before the National Day [23][24]. - The downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and there may be a weak rebound in the fourth quarter [29]. - The external cotton market is under seasonal supply pressure, and the domestic new cotton harvest will face challenges in downstream demand. The market pressure in the fourth quarter is large [33]. - The coking coal and coke market shows different trends between spot and futures before the festival. The spot price rises due to pre - festival stockpiling, while the futures are worried about post - festival demand and show a shock trend [34]. - The supply and demand of豆粕is weak, and the future price is mainly driven by policies. Attention should be paid to the USDA quarterly inventory report, South American weather and Sino - US relations [38]. - The steel price has limited upward space and needs to pay attention to the callback risk. It is recommended to take a light - position shock approach before the festival [40][41]. - The starch price difference may be undervalued, and there may be a safety margin for widening at low prices [43]. - The medium - term view of玉米is bearish, and the 11 - contract may decline more than the 01 - contract after the National Day [44]. - The red date futures price has risen sharply, and it is recommended to operate short - term. Attention should be paid to the development of jujube fruits in the production area and downstream consumption [47]. - The lithium carbonate price may decline in the long - term under the pressure of inventory - building at the end of the year, but the decline space is limited in the peak season before the actual resumption of production [50]. - The lead price is expected to remain in shock in the short - term, and it is recommended to lay out long positions at low prices and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [52]. - The zinc price decline space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [54]. - The PX price will be in shock adjustment in the short - term [56]. - The PTA price is in a shock trend, and it is recommended to adopt a band strategy [59]. - The downward space of the caustic soda futures price is limited [62]. - The paper pulp market is expected to be in a weak shock [64]. - The PVC fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to domestic policy benefits [65]. - The fundamentals of苯乙烯are weak in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to whether the sentiment can be boosted [67]. - The soda ash price is recommended to be shorted at high prices, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [68]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and shorting on soda ash 2601 [70]. - The container freight index fluctuates greatly before the festival, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [72][73]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin is cautious about the prospect of interest rate cuts. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman believes that decisive action is needed to cut interest rates. The US 8 - month core PCE price index increased by 0.2% month - on - month [12][13][14]. - The gold price fluctuated and closed higher on Friday, hitting a new high. The precious metals and non - ferrous metals were strong, and silver rose more than gold. The market focuses on the US government shutdown risk and Trump's tariff risk. It is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday [14][15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank carried out 165.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 411.5 billion yuan on the same day [16]. - Some institutions may choose to hold cash for the holiday due to concerns about the new regulations on public bond funds. However, the impact is limited. The treasury bond futures are in the stage of shock bottom - building, and it is recommended to take a shock approach in the short - term [16][17]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (动力煤) - Some coal mines stopped or reduced production at the end of the month, and the supply decreased slightly. The downstream only maintained rigid demand procurement, and the port coal price stagnated and declined this week [18]. - The demand is weak, and the price is expected to remain near the long - term agreement price. Attention should be paid to coal supply policies [19]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The construction of the Simandou project has made breakthroughs, and the equipment production and shipment are advancing simultaneously [20]. - The iron ore price is in a shock market, and it is expected to continue the box - type shock. Attention should be paid to the demand for finished products after the National Day and the changes in coal supply policies [22]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From September 1 to 25, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 4.14% month - on - month [23]. - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to decline in September, and the inventory - building pressure will slow down significantly. It is recommended to wait and see before the National Day [23][24]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - As of the week of September 24, the amount of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 3.1039 million tons, a decrease of 5.44% from the previous week [25]. - In the 25/26 sugar - making season, 3 sugar mills in Xinjiang have started operation. The sugar production in Xinjiang is expected to be about 700,000 tons [26]. - The market expects that the sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil will increase by 15% year - on - year in the first half of September. The downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and there may be a weak rebound in the fourth quarter [28][29]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The CCI in India may purchase cotton without limit due to the low cotton price. The new cotton in India has been on the market, and the cotton price in the northern region has dropped by about 5 - 6% in the past two weeks [30]. - The export signing volume of US cotton decreased in the week of September 12 - 18, and the shipment volume increased. The external cotton market is under seasonal supply pressure, and the domestic new cotton harvest will face challenges in downstream demand. The market pressure in the fourth quarter is large [32][33]. 2.6 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. Before the festival, the coking coal market showed different trends between spot and futures. The spot price rose due to pre - festival stockpiling, while the futures were worried about post - festival demand and showed a shock trend [34]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (豆粕) - It is estimated that the soybean crushing volume in China will be 9.42 million tons in October, and the arrival volume of imported soybeans is expected to be 9.49 million tons, 8.5 million tons, and 8 million tons from October to December respectively [35][36]. - The supply and demand of豆粕is weak, and the future price is mainly driven by policies. Attention should be paid to the USDA quarterly inventory report, South American weather and Sino - US relations [38]. 2.8 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased to 2.42 million tons. The inventory of five major varieties decreased slightly this week, and the demand for building materials increased seasonally, but the demand elasticity is not optimistic. The steel price has limited upward space and needs to pay attention to the callback risk. It is recommended to take a light - position shock approach before the festival [39][40][41]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong on September 22 were - 55 yuan/ton, - 179 yuan/ton, 7 yuan/ton, and - 82 yuan/ton respectively [42]. - The starch price difference may be undervalued, and there may be a safety margin for widening at low prices [43]. 2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of September 25, the average inventory of feed enterprises was 26.01 days, a decrease of 0.57% from the previous week [44]. - The medium - term view of玉米is bearish, and the 11 - contract may decline more than the 01 - contract after the National Day [44]. 2.11 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market fluctuated slightly. The futures price of red dates rose sharply, and it is recommended to operate short - term. Attention should be paid to the development of jujube fruits in the production area and downstream consumption [45][47]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Longpan Times stopped production on September 25 and is expected to resume production in November. Salt Lake Co., Ltd.'s 40,000 - ton/year basic lithium salt integration project started trial production, and Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project was officially put into operation [48][49][50]. - The lithium carbonate price may decline in the long - term under the pressure of inventory - building at the end of the year, but the decline space is limited in the peak season before the actual resumption of production [50]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On September 26, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $41.63/ton. The lead price is expected to remain in shock in the short - term, and it is recommended to lay out long positions at low prices and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [51][52]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On September 26, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $39.84/ton. The zinc price decline space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [53][54]. 2.15 Energy Chemical Industry (PX) - A refinery in the northeast plans to shut down its reforming unit for about 10 days starting from September 27. The PX price will be in shock adjustment in the short - term [55][56]. 2.16 Energy Chemical Industry (PTA) - The negotiation in the PTA spot market weakened, and the basis loosened. The PTA price is in a shock trend, and it is recommended to adopt a band strategy [57][59]. 2.17 Energy Chemical Industry (Caustic Soda) - On September 26, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased locally. The downward space of the caustic soda futures price is limited [60][62]. 2.18 Energy Chemical Industry (Paper Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was mainly stable. The paper pulp market is expected to be in a weak shock [63][64]. 2.19 Energy Chemical Industry (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in the domestic market was weakly sorted. The PVC fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to domestic policy benefits [65]. 2.20 Energy Chemical Industry (Styrene) - The weekly consumption of styrene's main downstream products decreased by 4.46% from the previous week. The fundamentals of苯乙烯are weak in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to whether the sentiment can be boosted [66][67]. 2.21 Energy Chemical Industry (Soda Ash) - On September 26, the price of soda ash in the South China market remained stable. The soda ash price is recommended to be shorted at high prices, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [67][68]. 2.22 Energy Chemical Industry (Float Glass) - On September 26, the price of float glass in the Shahe market increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and shorting on soda ash 2601 [69][70]. 2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight) - The EU's shipping fuel regulations have "killed" the demand for methanol - powered ships. Before the festival, the container freight index fluctuated greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [71][72][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market style is differentiated. The Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 rose, while the CSI 1000 fell. The electronics sector contributed the main gains to the indices, while the food and beverage, non - banking, and pharmaceutical and biological sectors contributed the main losses to the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 respectively [3]. - The trading volume of each futures variety decreased compared to the previous period. The basis of IH and IF strengthened, while that of IC and IM weakened, with IC and IM maintaining a deep discount. It is expected that the deep discount pattern of IC and IM will continue, and opportunities for inter - period positive arbitrage should be considered when the discount converges driven by market sentiment. The roll - over strategy recommends going long on the near - term contract and short on the far - term contract [4]. - For the bond futures this week, the IRR of bond futures has declined, and the inter - period spread has fluctuated strongly. The interest rate timing signal predicts a decline in interest rates, and high - duration varieties are recommended for hedging. The multi - factor timing strategy signal for futures is neutral, and the cross - variety arbitrage strategy signals for bond futures are also neutral [73]. - Last week, caustic soda and polysilicon had the largest declines among single - varieties, while gold, crude oil, and fuel oil, which were affected by external macro factors, had the largest increases. Most commodity factors gained positive returns last week, with value and volatility factors leading the gains, followed by price - volume trend and term structure factors. In the short term, factor and strategy returns may still face fluctuations [86]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market Review - Market style is differentiated, with different sectors contributing to index gains and losses [3]. - Trading volume of each variety decreased, and basis structures of different varieties showed different trends [4]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures Basis Strategy - The current hedging demand in stock index futures is mainly short - side. It is expected that the deep discount of IC and IM will continue. Consider inter - period positive arbitrage when the discount converges, and recommend the long - near and short - far roll - over strategy [4]. 3.3 Stock Index Futures Arbitrage Strategy - Inter - period arbitrage strategy: The net value fluctuated last week. The annualized basis rate, positive arbitrage, and momentum factors had returns of 0.1%, 0.1%, and - 0.1% respectively (6 - times leverage). The annualized basis rate factor mostly gave reverse - arbitrage signals [5]. - Cross - variety arbitrage strategy: The net value of the cross - variety timing synthetic strategy gained 0.9% last week. The latest signal recommends 100% long IC and short IF, and 100% long IC and short IM [6]. 3.4 Stock Index Futures Timing Strategy - Daily timing strategy: Each model generally gained last week. The single - factor equal - weight, OLS, and XGB models gained 0.2%, 0.4%, and 0.2% respectively. The latest signals of the timing models show an enhanced short - side signal, with different views on different indices [7]. 3.5 Stock Index Futures Roll - over Return Tracking - Historical roll - over returns of different indices (Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000) from 2018 to 2025 and in the recent month and week are presented, showing different trends [27]. 3.6 Bond Futures Strategy - Basis and inter - period: The IRR of bond futures declined this week, and the inter - period spread fluctuated strongly. The positive arbitrage space is limited, and it is expected to move in a range [73]. - Interest rate timing and hedging: The interest rate timing signal predicts a decline in interest rates, and high - duration varieties are recommended for hedging [73]. - Futures timing strategy: The multi - factor timing strategy signal is neutral, with different factors having different views [73]. - Futures cross - variety arbitrage strategy: The signals of the bond futures cross - variety arbitrage strategies TS - T and T - TL are neutral [73]. 3.7 Commodity Factor and Strategy Performance - Commodity factor performance: Last week, caustic soda and polysilicon had large declines, while gold and crude oil had large increases. Most commodity factors gained positive returns, with value and volatility factors leading the gains [86]. - Tracking strategy performance: Different strategies (CWFT, C_frontnext & Short Trend, etc.) have different annualized returns, Sharpe ratios, Calmar ratios, and maximum drawdowns, and their performances in the recent week and this year also vary [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is currently in a phase of oscillating to find the bottom, and the probability of continuous adjustment is low. After the adjustment, the bond market valuation has gradually become reasonable. With limited incremental negatives such as policy efforts and a stronger stock market in the future, and the monetary policy remaining in a balanced and slightly loose state, the bond market will gradually become desensitized to negatives. It is expected that the market will start to focus on the fundamentals in late October [2]. - In the short - term, the bond market is expected to oscillate slightly weaker due to the fewer trading days next week and some institutions' potential concerns about the implementation of new regulations on public bond funds during the holiday. However, the impact of institutions holding cash for the holiday is relatively limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From September 22 - 28, treasury bond futures oscillated downward. On Monday, the bond market sentiment was generally positive due to the central bank's 14 - day reverse repurchase operation, and the bond futures closed higher. On Tuesday, concerns about changes in public fund fees suppressed the bond market, and the decline of bond futures widened in the late session. On Wednesday, without the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation, the tightening of the capital side and the rising stock market led to stronger short - selling intentions of institutions, and bond futures oscillated downward. On Thursday, the bond market fell sharply in the morning due to strong equity performance, and rebounded in the afternoon. On Friday, with a calm market and a weakening stock market, bond futures rose slightly. As of September 26, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.358, 105.630, 107.755, and 114.880 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.006, + 0.050, + 0.075, and - 0.280 yuan compared to last weekend [1][11]. 3.1.2 Next Week's View - The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly weaker. The cross - quarter capital side has tightened, and new regulations on public funds have suppressed bond market sentiment. The yield curve continues to steepen. Although some institutions may hold cash for the holiday due to concerns about new regulations on public bond funds, the impact is limited. The bond market is in an oscillating bottom - finding phase, and the probability of continuous adjustment is low. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating approach in the short - term for the unilateral strategy, wait for market sentiment to improve to close the short - hedging strategy, and moderately focus on the strategy of steepening the curve [2][12][13]. 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 106 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 579.731 billion yuan and a net financing of - 6.239 billion yuan, a change of - 84.808 billion yuan and - 472.664 billion yuan compared to last week respectively. 78 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 196.051 billion yuan and a net financing of 122.461 billion yuan, a change of + 7.532 billion yuan and + 91.606 billion yuan compared to last week respectively. 450 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance volume of 790.970 billion yuan and a net financing of - 178.240 billion yuan, a change of - 188.540 billion yuan and - 307.70 billion yuan compared to last week respectively [23][24]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields generally increased. As of September 26, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.52%, 1.63%, 1.88%, and 2.22% respectively, a change of + 3.07, + 1.70, + 0.20, and + 2.40 basis points compared to last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads widened, while the 10Y - 5Y spread narrowed. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds also increased [29][30]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures oscillated downward. As of September 26, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.344, 105.530, 107.670, and 114.260 yuan respectively, a change of - 0.014, - 0.100, - 0.085, and - 0.620 yuan compared to last weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 35,819, 71,161, 107,596, and 148,495 lots respectively, a change of - 1,326, - 6,772, - 16,083, and - 11,225 lots compared to last weekend. The open interests were 76,284, 148,793, 246,583, and 170,109 lots respectively, a change of - 80, + 3,357, + 2,011, and + 2,829 lots compared to last weekend [35][36][40]. 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage was not obvious. The capital side was generally loose, the market oscillated, and the futures basis generally oscillated within a narrow range. The IRR of the CTD bonds of the main contracts of each variety was between 1.3% - 1.4%, and the current certificate of deposit rate was between 1.6% - 1.7%, so the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage was relatively limited. The basis and IRR of TL fluctuated greatly, but trading opportunities were difficult to grasp. The short - hedging strategy should be held for now [43]. 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of September 26, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2512 - 2603 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were + 0.086, + 0.120, + 0.345, and + 0.340 yuan respectively, a change of + 0.006, - 0.020, - 0.020, and 0.000 yuan compared to last weekend [46]. 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Side - This week (excluding the 28th), the central bank conducted 2.4674 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan of MLF operations. With 1.8268 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities and 300 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF maturities, the net investment was 940.6 billion yuan. As of September 26, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.55%, 1.53%, 1.32%, and 1.50% respectively, a change of + 2.76, + 4.25, - 14.00, and + 1.30 basis points compared to last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 7.27 trillion yuan, 0.10 trillion yuan more than last week, and the overnight proportion was 75.72%, slightly lower than last week [51][53][56]. 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the yield of 10Y US Treasury bonds increased. As of September 26, the US dollar index rose 0.55% to 98.1926 compared to last weekend. The yield of 10Y US Treasury bonds was 4.20%, an increase of 6 basis points compared to last weekend. The spread between Chinese and US 10Y Treasury bonds was inverted by 232.1 basis points. The US manufacturing PMI index in September declined, and Powell said that the uncertainty of inflation trends remains high, and he also thought that the valuation of the US stock market is quite high [60]. 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices all declined this week. As of September 26, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, the Metal Index, and the Energy and Chemical Index were 3628.85, 6387.58, and 1663.68 points respectively, a change of - 3.80, - 24.08, and - 0.99 points compared to last weekend. Agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. As of September 26, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 19.42, 5.08, and 6.96 yuan/kg respectively, a change of - 0.06, + 0.10, and + 0.11 yuan/kg compared to last weekend [63]. 3.7 Investment Recommendations - Adopt an oscillating approach in the short - term [64].

【生猪：四季度行情展望】 仍处磨底去产阶段 东证衍生品研究院 2025年9月 吴冰心 高级分析师 从业资格号：F03087442 投资咨询号：Z0019498 Tel: 021-63325888-4192 Email:bingxin.wu@orientfutures.com 图：双节前现货不涨反跌 图：近月合约继续突破13000元/吨向下 数据来源：钢联农产品、WIND、东证衍生品研究院 吴冰心 高级分析师；从业资格号：F03087442；交易咨询号：Z0019498 • 上半年现货跌幅有限，均价仍显著高于成本线，养殖逆周期持续给出利润。 • 进入三季度，受政策引导，行业整体去库加速，进入双节前备货旺季，现货不涨反跌，盘面估值受现货悲观情绪拖累 大幅下移。 回顾：现货不涨，盘面大幅缩水 1、期现货市场：加速下跌，整体估值下移 Ø 去库先行，现货价格下跌 1、期现货市场：周期反转阶段反套结构的确立 Ø 期货市场：盘面升水大幅挤出，反套结构持续确立 • 在近月去库、远月去产的一致预期下，盘面反套结构形成，由母猪存栏拐点推测，明年5-7月之后或是供应收紧、价格 企稳上行的重要转折。 数据来源：WIND、东证衍生品研 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Q3 2025 market was dominated by the "anti - involution" policy. The first - stage goal of "anti - involution" has been achieved, and the industry is moving towards the second - stage goal. The second - stage goal of capacity clearance gives an imagination space for the price to reach above 60,000 yuan/ton [3][12]. - The price increase in Q3 was supported by factors such as unexpected overseas demand, the "buy - on - rising" psychology of downstream enterprises, and the compression of downstream profits. However, the demand in Q4 is not optimistic [33][36][42]. - The price outlook depends on the progress of the platform company. If the platform company is established, the spot price is likely to rise, but considering the weakening fundamentals, the price may reach a limit of 60,000 yuan/ton. If the platform company is not established, the price may move towards 45,000 yuan/ton [105][110]. Summary by Related Catalogs 25Q3 Market Review - In H1 2025, the market was mainly based on fundamental trading, while in Q3 2025, it was dominated by trading the "anti - involution" policy. Polysilicon is the only product with clear policy guidance since the "anti - involution" [3]. - The first - stage goal of "anti - involution" is to prevent selling products below cost, which is a "temporary solution". The second - stage goal is to achieve permanent clearance of excess capacity through measures such as storage or energy consumption, which is a "fundamental solution" [8]. - The top - level design includes the revision of relevant laws, comments from the People's Daily, and important meetings chaired by the President. The implementation is led by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, with the photovoltaic industry association organizing industry self - discipline. The first - stage goal has been completed, and the industry is moving towards the second - stage goal [11][12]. Second - Stage Goals - **Capacity Storage and Shuffle Fund**: Leading polysilicon enterprises plan to form a fund platform company to acquire, integrate, and exit redundant silicon material capacity. The current total industry capacity is about 3.5 million tons, and a 60 - 70% market operating rate needs to be maintained to achieve supply - demand balance. The investment cost of polysilicon is about 6 - 8 billion yuan/ton. The capital source is the acquirer's own funds plus bank loans or other financing methods. Some investors expect the long - term polysilicon price to run above 60,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Energy Consumption Standards**: The government uses energy consumption standards to limit the capacity scale. The new energy consumption standards for polycrystalline silicon have been revised several times, and the final draft was released on September 16. 83.76% of the production can meet the third - level standard, and existing enterprises can adjust their energy consumption by reducing the density. A 12 - month transition period is recommended [22]. Price Trends and Their Causes - **Price Increases**: The mainstream transaction price of first - tier enterprises' dense materials for polysilicon has risen from the bottom of 33 - 34 yuan/kg to the current 50 - 52 yuan/kg. The prices of silicon wafers, batteries, and components have also increased [23]. - **Reasons for Price Increases**: Overseas demand in Q3 exceeded expectations, with factors such as the expected cancellation of export tax rebates leading to a rush to export, battery shortages overseas, and India's tax reduction policy. Downstream enterprises showed a "buy - on - rising" psychology, and the price increase in polysilicon was mainly achieved by squeezing downstream profits [33][36][42]. Future Fundamental Deductions - **Domestic Market**: From January to August, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 230.61GW, with a year - on - year decrease of 55% in August. The export volume of components and batteries increased. However, the component tender volume decreased significantly from April to mid - September, and the mechanism electricity price was lower than expected. The predicted new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2025 is 298GWac, a year - on - year increase of 7% [35][48][52]. - **European Market**: The new photovoltaic installed capacity in Germany, Italy, and Poland decreased slightly, while that in France and Spain increased. The predicted new photovoltaic installed capacity in Europe in 2025 is 59GWac, remaining the same as the previous year. The export volume of Chinese components to Europe decreased from January to August, but increased in August. The European component inventory decreased, and it is difficult to replenish stocks on a large scale [58]. - **US Market**: The new photovoltaic installed capacity in the US from January to June was 16.1GW, a year - on - year increase of 3%. After the signing of the "Big and Beautiful Act", it is expected that there will be a rush to install household photovoltaics in the second half of 2025, and the household photovoltaic market will shrink continuously after 2026. The predicted new photovoltaic installed capacity in the US in 2025 is 37GWac, a year - on - year increase of 4% [70][73]. - **Indian Market**: The new photovoltaic installed capacity in India from January to July was 21.15GW, a year - on - year increase of 52%. The predicted new photovoltaic installed capacity in India in 2025 is 35GWac, a year - on - year increase of 43%. India's policies will have a negative impact on China's exports in the long term [77]. - **Middle East and Africa**: From January to August 2025, China's component exports to the Middle East decreased by 13% year - on - year, while those to Africa increased by 47% year - on - year. The predicted new photovoltaic installed capacity in the Middle East and Africa in 2025 is 18GWac and 3GWac respectively, with year - on - year increases of 50% and 61% [78]. Supply - Demand Balance and Profit Calculations - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, and domestic demand of polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries, and components from January to December 2025, as well as the supply - demand balance situation [98]. - **Profit Calculations**: Based on different polysilicon prices, the cash profits, gross profits, and net profits of silicon wafers, batteries, components, and integrated enterprises are calculated. The current profit situation is better than the extreme profit situation [104]. Price Outlook and Strategies - **Price Outlook**: If the platform company is established, the spot price is likely to rise, but considering the weakening fundamentals, the price may reach a limit of 60,000 yuan/ton. If the platform company is not established, the price may move towards 45,000 yuan/ton [105][110]. - **Q4 Strategies**: The operating range of the Q4 main contract may be between 45,000 and 60,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities at the upper limit of the range. The establishment of the platform company directly affects the long - short arbitrage logic, and it is recommended to wait and see [110].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of industrial silicon has seasonal inventory accumulation and depletion, but compared with the industry inventory of over 1 million tons, the fundamental contradiction is not obvious. After the previous hedging, short - term price decline is difficult to cause production cuts, but the price needs to break through 10,000 yuan/ton to bring obvious supply increments in the dry season or the next wet season. With the cost floor identified, the lower limit of the industrial silicon price may be clearer. In Q4, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying on dips at the lower end of the range [78]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 25Q3 Market Review - In 25H1, the price of industrial silicon dropped significantly due to inventory accumulation during the dry season, resumption of production by large manufacturers, and cost collapse driven by falling coal prices. In 25Q3, the price rebounded sharply due to the continuous strengthening of the basis, outflow of warehouse receipts, lower - than - expected resumption of production by large manufacturers, and the "anti - involution" trading. After the "anti - involution" trading declined, the price fluctuated between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton [3]. Cost Analysis - **Electricity Price**: The cost floor in terms of electricity price has emerged. In Xinjiang, self - supplied electricity is about 0.2 yuan/kWh, and subsidized purchased electricity is about 0.3 yuan/kWh, with 0.35 yuan/kWh in Yili. In Yunnan, the electricity price rises slightly in the normal - water period in October and increases by 0.15 - 0.2 yuan/kWh in the dry season from November to December. In Sichuan, the electricity price rises by 0.05 - 0.1 yuan/kWh in the normal - water period in November and by 0.16 - 0.21 yuan/kWh in the dry season in December compared with the wet season [8][10]. - **Raw Materials**: The cost floor for raw materials has also emerged. The cash cost of self - supplied electricity in Xinjiang is 6,800 yuan/ton, and that of purchased electricity is 7,800 yuan/ton. The cash cost in the wet season in Sichuan is 8,500 - 9,100 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan, it is 9,900 yuan/ton. In the dry season, the cash cost in Baoshan is 11,500 yuan/ton, and in other south - western regions, it is 12,500 yuan/ton [22][23][30]. Supply Analysis - **Seasonal Production Cuts**: In the dry season, the supply elasticity is weakened by hedging. Xinjiang's large manufacturers plan to increase the number of furnaces in the eastern base to 50, and may further increase to 60. Yunnan and Sichuan will start production cuts at the end of October, with Yunnan's operation possibly dropping to more than 20 furnaces and Sichuan's to about 35 furnaces. Inner Mongolia's polysilicon integrated and self - supplied electricity - advantaged capacities are operating at full capacity. In Gansu, the operation is expected to change little [31]. - **Potential Supply Pressure**: There are many built - but - not - yet - commissioned capacities, posing a large potential supply pressure. Newly commissioned capacities include Tongwei Baotou, Tongwei Guangyuan, Xin'an Yanjin, and Yongchang Silicon Industry. Built but postponed commissioning includes Qiya Silicon Industry, Qinghai Hongshi, Hesheng Zhaotong, Trina Solar, and Shangnan Zhongjian [37][38]. Demand Analysis - **Polysilicon**: After the "anti - involution" trading, the mainstream transaction price of dense materials from first - tier enterprises rose to 50 - 52 yuan/kg, with a net profit margin of over 10%. The upstream factory inventory is 20 - 21 million tons, mainly concentrated in leading enterprises. The downstream raw material inventory is over 2 months. From January to September 2025, the polysilicon output was 951,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33%. Considering the dry - season production cuts and the resumption expectations of some enterprises, the polysilicon production schedule for Q4 2025 is expected to be 376,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8% [50]. - **Organic Silicon**: The real estate market remains weak. In terms of photovoltaic, from January to September, the domestic component output of Chinese enterprises was 412.3GW, a year - on - year increase of 4%. Considering the weakening demand, the production schedule for Q4 2025 is expected to be 136GW, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. For new - energy vehicles, from January to August, the sales volume was 9.592 million, a year - on - year increase of 36%. Due to the high base in Q4 last year, the annual growth rate is adjusted down to 24%, with a year - on - year increase of 9.5% in Q4. In terms of exports, from January to August, the export volume of primary - form polysiloxane was 373,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1%. However, the US tariff adjustment is expected to reduce exports to the US. From January to August, the output of organic silicon intermediates was 1.653 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18%. The production of organic silicon DMC in Q4 2025 is expected to be 677,000 tons, the same as the previous year [51][62][68]. - **Aluminum Alloys and Exports**: From January to August, the output of primary aluminum alloys was 941,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1%, and the output of recycled aluminum alloys was 4.056 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. Q4 is the seasonal peak season for aluminum alloys. Aluminum plants mainly purchase industrial silicon as a rigid demand, buying on dips and consuming inventory at other times. The demand for industrial silicon from aluminum alloys in Q4 2025 is expected to be 230,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%. From January to August, the export of industrial silicon was 490,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30% [69]. Supply - Demand Balance and Price Outlook - **Supply - Demand Balance**: On the supply side, with Xinjiang's large manufacturers' eastern base operating 50 furnaces, the operating rate in the southwest drops significantly in the dry season. On the demand side, polysilicon production is affected by dry - season cuts and some enterprises' resumption, organic silicon production remains the same year - on - year, and aluminum alloy demand increases slightly year - on - year. Inventory accumulates in October, and about 50,000 tons are depleted from November to December in the dry season. However, if Xinjiang's large manufacturers fully resume production, it may be difficult to deplete inventory in November and only a small amount will be depleted in December [73]. - **Price Outlook**: The lower limit of the industrial silicon price may be clearer with the cost floor identified. The main contract in Q4 is expected to trade in the range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [78].

季度报告——焦煤/焦炭 政策扰动供需已变，价格触底回升 | 9[Table_Rank] 走势评级： | 焦煤/焦炭：震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 9 | 月 | 26 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★焦煤：政策扰动供应下降，价格筑底反弹 焦煤方面，四季度随着年末临近，煤矿保安全生产为主，多数企业在 完成或接近完成年度生产计划后，将逐步放缓生产节奏，预计整体供 应呈稳中趋降态势。因此年内供应高点已过，四季度供应水平难以回 升至二季度高位，但在无显著政策干预的情况下，供应亦难出现大幅 收缩。蒙煤方面，由于上半年进口进度偏慢，蒙方仍有达成年度煤炭 出口目标需求，叠加价格环境改善，四季度蒙煤进口预计将维持高位 运行。需求端来看，尽管铁水日均产量仍保持在 240 万吨以上，但下 游实际承接情况仍存疑。 ★焦炭：成本下移，但利润维持低位 焦炭进入三季度后，尽管焦炭价格有所上涨，但成本端焦煤价格涨幅 更为显著。目前部分煤种价格已较 1 月份水平高出约 50–100 元/吨。 由于焦 ...

美元四季度观点 东证衍生品研究院 元涛 从业资格号：F0286099 投资咨询号：Z0012850 美国经济-劳动力市场韧性降低 劳动力市场冷却速度上升 职位空缺降低 失业率上升但是通胀未必下行 资料来源：Bloomberg 美国劳动力市场韧性在明显降低，失业率开始趋势性上升，职位空缺趋向于中性水平。劳动力市场 很明显比预期要弱。 美国经济-劳动力市场中期弱势难免 资料来源：Bloomberg 经济基本面数据已经走弱，劳动力市场表现在目前很明显开始跟随经济基本面走弱，远期预期明显 下行，但是薪资增速继续维持相对韧性。 劳动力市场走弱速度可能加快 薪资增速继续制约核心通胀下行速度 经济远期预期波动加剧 美国经济-滞胀前景愈发明显 美国通胀短期压力继续存在 核心服务业通胀回升 资料来源：Bloomberg 短期通胀压力持续存在，核心通胀尤其是服务业通胀没有明显下行倾向，短期通胀压力很明显在上 升。 美国经济-滞胀前景愈发明显 通胀预期高位震荡 能源价格对于降息影响并不高 资料来源：Bloomberg 但是真正的关键在于远期通胀预期明显上升，并且达到一个非常高的水平，能源价格的上升对于通 胀预期的影响并不是非常显著 ...