供应压力凸显，碱价偏弱运行 曹璐 资深分析师(化工) 从业资格号：F3013434 投资咨询号：Z0013049 行情回顾 全国主要区域重质纯碱市场主流价 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 21/01 21/03 21/05 21/07 21/09 21/11 22/01 22/03 22/05 22/07 22/09 22/11 23/01 23/03 23/05 23/07 23/09 23/11 24/01 24/03 24/05 24/07 24/09 24/11 25/01 25/03 25/05 25/07 25/09 重质纯碱：市场主流价：华东地区 重质纯碱：市场主流价：华南地区 重质纯碱：市场主流价：华中地区 重质纯碱：市场主流价：华北地区 元/吨 资料来源：Wind，隆众资讯 资料来源：隆众资讯 曹璐 化工资深分析师；从业资格号：F3013434；投资咨询号：Z0013049 纯碱期现价格 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2, ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 38th week of 2025 (from September 15th to September 21st), the single - week retail sales of passenger cars reached 5.11 million, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. The cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 15.693 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The single - week retail sales of new energy passenger cars were 2.99 million, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 8.214 billion, a year - on - year increase of 23.0%. The single - week penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 59.5%, and the cumulative annual penetration rate was 52.3%, showing a slow upward trend [1][13][16]. - The market pattern of new energy vehicles is constantly changing. Brands like BYD and Li Auto had a year - on - year negative growth, while XPeng, NIO, Leapmotor, Xiaomi, and Voyah maintained relatively high growth rates. New brands such as Xiaomi have added new variables to the market, and traditional automakers like Geely, Changan, and Chery have achieved excellent performance in new energy vehicle sales [2][22]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Passenger Car Market Weekly Overview - **Overall Passenger Car Sales**: In the 38th week of 2025, the single - week retail sales of passenger cars were 5.11 million, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. The cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 15.693 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [1][13]. - **New Energy Passenger Car Sales**: The single - week retail sales of new energy passenger cars were 2.99 million, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 8.214 billion, a year - on - year increase of 23.0% [1][13]. - **Penetration Rate**: The single - week penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 59.5%, and the cumulative annual penetration rate was 52.3%, showing a slow upward trend [1][16]. - **Sales by Power Type**: Among passenger cars, traditional fuel, hybrid, and new energy vehicles had retail sales of 1.94 million, 0.18 million, and 2.99 million respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 4.1%, - 3.4%, and 31.9% respectively, accounting for 37.9%, 3.6%, and 58.5% of passenger cars. Among new energy passenger cars, pure - electric, plug - in hybrid, and extended - range vehicles had retail sales of 1.95 million, 0.79 million, and 0.25 million respectively, with year - on - year changes of 54.9%, 5.0%, and - 2.4% respectively, accounting for 65.2%, 26.5%, and 8.3% of new energy passenger cars [17]. - **Sales by Production Attribute**: Among passenger cars, self - owned and joint - venture brands had retail sales of 3.43 million and 1.69 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 22.0% and 1.0% respectively, accounting for 67.0% and 33.0% of passenger cars. Among new energy passenger cars, self - owned and joint - venture brands had retail sales of 2.7 million and 0.3 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 33.2% and 21.1% respectively, accounting for 90.1% and 9.9% of new energy passenger cars [19]. 3.2 Key New Energy Automaker Sales Analysis - **Overall Situation**: In the 38th week of this year, BYD sold 78,000 new energy passenger cars, Geely Automobile sold 37,000, SAIC - GM - Wuling sold 20,000, Tesla (China) sold 17,000, Changan Automobile sold 15,000, Hongmeng Zhixing sold 13,000, and Chery Automobile sold 11,000. Among new - force automakers, Leapmotor sold 13,000, Xiaomi sold 11,000, Wenjie sold 10,000, XPeng and Li Auto sold 9,000 each, and NIO sold 7,000 [2][22]. - **BYD**: The weekly sales were 78,000. Since July, the year - on - year growth rate has turned negative. The cumulative sales this year were 2.359 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of 2.3%. The sales of pure - electric and plug - in hybrid (including extended - range) models were basically half and half. From January to August this year, the global cumulative sales were 2.864 billion, and the overseas cumulative sales of passenger cars and pickups were 630,000. Regarding the reported reduction of the annual sales target from 5.5 billion (including 800,000 in the overseas market) to 4.6 billion, the completion rate of the original target from January to August was 52%, and the overseas market target completion rate was 78.75%. After the target reduction, the completion rate was 62% [26]. - **Geely Automobile**: The weekly sales were 56,000, including 37,000 new energy vehicles (3,000 from the Zeekr brand), and the electrification rate was about 65%. The cumulative sales this year were 1.647 billion, a year - on - year increase of 48.5%, and the cumulative new energy sales were 979,000, a year - on - year increase of 100.0%. The company adjusted its 2025 sales target from 2.71 billion to 3 billion [28]. - **SAIC - GM - Wuling**: The overall passenger car sales were 21,000, including 20,000 new energy vehicles, and the electrification rate was as high as 92%. The cumulative sales this year were 594,000, with a growth rate of 19.9%, and the new energy sales were 511,000, with a growth rate of 35.4%. Pure - electric models dominated the sales [31]. - **Changan Automobile**: The overall passenger car sales were 25,000, including 15,000 new energy vehicles, and the electrification rate was about 59%. The cumulative sales this year were 846,000, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%, and the new energy sales were 423,000, a year - on - year increase of 19.2% [36]. - **Chery Automobile**: The overall passenger car sales were 26,000, including 11,000 new energy vehicles, and the electrification rate was about 44%. The cumulative sales this year were 869,000, a year - on - year increase of 23.5%, and the new energy sales were 313,000, a year - on - year increase of 66.5% [41]. - **Tesla**: The sales in China that week were 17,000, and the cumulative sales this year were 412,000, a year - on - year negative growth of - 5.7%. The sales of Model 3, Model Y, and Model Y L were about 6,000, 10,000, and 1,000 respectively. Tesla has launched multiple promotional activities this year. The price of the long - range version of Model 3 increased by 10,000 yuan since July 1st. Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y entered the rural subsidy catalog for the first time in 2025 [46]. - **Hongmeng Zhixing**: The weekly sales were 13,000, including about 10,000 for Wenjie and about 1,000 for Zhijie. The Shangjie H5, a new car in cooperation with SAIC, is planned to be officially launched in September, targeting the mass market [50]. - **New - Force Automakers**: Leapmotor, Xiaomi, Wenjie, XPeng, Li Auto, and NIO sold 13,000, 11,000, 10,000, 9,000, 9,000, and 7,000 respectively. XPeng, NIO, Leapmotor, Xiaomi, and Voyah maintained relatively high growth rates [2][22].

季度报告-鸡蛋 淘鸡与新增开产之争 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | | --- | | 报告日期： | ★[Ta回ble溯_S：um季m节ar性y]行情出逃与回归 农 产 在经历超长盈利周期后，2025 年鸡蛋市场正面临严峻的来自供应 端的压力，而伴随产能释放的同时，传统双节前消费并未能如预期 那样顺畅的兑现在 8、9 合约的定价上。旺季前夕，现货价格甚至 一度创下年内最低水平，空头持仓集中。近期临近 10 月交割，跟 随备货展开，现货价格强势反弹，同时北方部分资本蛋囤积带动价 格一时难跌。盘面出现"低估值+高基差+限仓"带来的超涨行情， 价差结构由反套向正套切换。季节性行情看似回归，多空矛盾巨大， 但就周期而言，我们更倾向于节前现货的上涨行情是一类阶段性反 弹而非反转。 品 ★ 基本面：需求萎靡，供应压力难言大幅改善 我们针对在产蛋鸡存栏作相应预测，根据模型假设，四季度在产蛋 鸡存栏理论变化仍呈现增势，但在第二种超淘逻辑下，存栏压力或 给出阶段性缓解的可能性。这里或因模型本身问题缺乏深度严谨 性，回到基本面判断的主观逻辑来看，我们倾向于给出四季度供应 压力难言大幅缓解的结论：一方面，鸡龄结构已来 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the report analyzes various financial and commodity markets, including macro - strategy, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. It provides insights into market trends, influencing factors, and offers corresponding investment suggestions for each sector [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump plans to impose strong tariffs on Russia, and Powell emphasizes employment and inflation risks. Gold prices are driven up by Fed's potential rate - cut expectations and Trump's tariff sanctions, but there is a risk of correction before the National Day holiday in China [13][14]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the risk of price correction in the short term [15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Three Fed officials think setting an inflation target range is more beneficial. Trump believes Ukraine can retake all its territory, and Powell says US stocks are "valued quite high". The US dollar index is expected to be weak in the short term [16][17][18]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term [19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Wang Yi meets with US congressmen, and China's education reaches the average level of high - income countries. The A - share market shows a V - shaped reversal with increased trading volume, and the technology sector remains resilient. Short - term attention should be paid to trading volume changes [20][21]. - Investment advice: Consider moderate profit - taking [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. US September Markit manufacturing and services PMI decline. Powell mentions that the stock market is over - valued, and there may be short - term fluctuations, but the overall outlook is still positive [23][24][27]. - Investment advice: Although valuation concerns may cause short - term disturbances, maintain a bullish view overall [28]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 276.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1.09 billion yuan on the day. The bond market is in a weak sentiment, and short - term trading should follow a range - bound strategy [29]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - bound trading strategy in the short term and avoid chasing up [31]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Domestic soybean mills' operating rates and soybean crushing volumes during the National Day holiday are reported, and some mills in Guangdong stop production due to a typhoon. Argentina suspends export taxes on grains and oilseed meals, affecting the market [32][33]. - Investment advice: Wait and see for now, and pay attention to whether M2601 can be effectively supported at 2900 [34]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production from September 1 - 20 decreases. Argentina's tax - exemption policy impacts the global oil market, but short - term oversold rebound opportunities can be considered [35][36][37]. - Investment advice: Consider short - term oversold rebound opportunities in the P2601 contract, but control positions [37]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Muyuan Co., Ltd. establishes an overseas business team. The pig market is in a negative feedback stage, with the short - term trend following the spot market and a medium - long - term view of shorting on rebounds [38]. - Investment advice: Short on rebounds unilaterally and continuously monitor reverse spreads [39]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Northeast corn spot prices continue to decline. With the approaching of the new corn season, the market expects a bumper harvest and normal listing, and the mid - term view is bearish [40]. - Investment advice: Hold existing short positions [40]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The total new contracts signed by five major construction central enterprises in the first eight months exceed 4.7 trillion yuan, and the average construction machinery operating rate in August is 43.42%. Steel prices are range - bound with limited upward and downward space [41][42]. - Investment advice: Expect a range - bound rebound before the holiday, but the space is limited [43]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - China's corn starch exports in August decline. The price of raw corn stops falling, and the export demand is not expected to have a significant positive impact on the fundamentals [44]. - Investment advice: The long - term supply - demand situation of starch is bearish for the corn - starch price spread, but pay attention to potential changes in the regional price spread after the large - scale listing of Northeast corn [44]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - Red dates in Xinjiang are growing normally, and the futures price of the main contract CJ601 shows a small increase. The price is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the development of jujube fruits in the production area and the purchasing situation in the sales area [45][46]. - Investment advice: The futures price is expected to be range - bound, and pay attention to the development of jujube fruits and purchasing situation [46]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - An electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia is expected to start in stages by the end of 2025. The alumina market has an oversupply problem, and the import pressure is increasing [47][48]. - Investment advice: Short on rallies [49]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A photovoltaic component tender sets a price limit. Polysilicon prices are expected to be range - bound, and the spot price is not expected to fall in October. The component price is expected to be range - bound, and the terminal demand may decline [50][51][52]. - Investment advice: The polysilicon price is expected to be range - bound between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and consider going long at the current level [53]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - China's silicon wafer exports in August increase. The market is expected to accumulate inventory in September - October and reduce inventory in November - December. The strategy of going long on dips has a higher probability of success [54][55]. - Investment advice: Go long on dips, but be cautious when chasing up [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - High US tariffs disrupt the stainless - steel market. The nickel market has potential supply - side disturbances, and the low - valued nickel has long - term investment value. Consider positive spreads [56]. - Investment advice: The global nickel inventory is high, but low - valued nickel has long - term investment value. Consider positive spreads [56]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - India initiates an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese copper cables. The macro - support for copper prices weakens, but the inventory accumulation pressure eases. Copper prices are expected to continue to be range - bound at a high level [57][61]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - sided trading, and be cautious during the holiday. Also, wait and see for arbitrage [61]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A company plans to issue bonds for debt refinancing, and a lithium carbonate project is put into production. The market is in a de - stocking stage, and the price may fall after the demand peak [62][63][64]. - Investment advice: Adopt a bearish strategy, be cautious when shorting in the short term, and consider shorting on rebounds in the medium term [64]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead shows a deep contango. The domestic lead market has improved demand, and the social inventory has reached an inflection point. The price is expected to be range - bound and bullish [65]. - Investment advice: Try to go long on dips for single - sided trading and consider positive spreads for arbitrage [65]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc shows a backwardation, and some zinc alloy enterprises in Guangdong stop production due to a typhoon. The market has a potential soft - squeeze risk, and the domestic zinc price is affected. Consider positive spreads [66][67]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - sided trading, consider positive spreads for arbitrage, and maintain a positive - spread strategy for domestic - foreign trading [67]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US API crude oil inventory decreases, and Russia discusses the possibility of a diesel export ban. Oil prices are range - bound [68][69]. - Investment advice: Wait for new market drivers as oil prices are range - bound [70]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of CEA on September 23 increases, but the market volume does not expand significantly. The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish [70][71]. - Investment advice: Expect a further decline in the short term [71]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong varies. The supply is stable, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be stable in the short term [72][73][74]. - Investment advice: The spot price is falling, but the downward space of the futures price may be limited [74]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is basically stable. The market is expected to be range - bound and bearish [75][76]. - Investment advice: The market is expected to be range - bound and bearish [76]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in China decreases. The market is weak, but the low valuation makes it difficult for the price to fall further. Pay attention to domestic policy support [77]. - Investment advice: The PVC fundamentals are weak, but the low price limits further decline. Pay attention to domestic policy support [77]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - China's pure benzene import data in August is reported. The pure benzene and styrene markets are range - bound and bearish. The supply of styrene is affected by maintenance, and the demand has short - term resilience [78][79]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to how to solve the inventory contradiction after the peak season, and the industrial chain profit may be further compressed [80]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips decreases, and the market trading volume is acceptable. The demand may be over - drawn in the short term, and the long - term demand is weak. Pay attention to production cuts and new capacity [81][82][83]. - Investment advice: The demand may be over - drawn in the short term, and pay attention to production cuts and new capacity [83]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price continues to fall. The supply may increase in Q4, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish [84][85]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish in the short term [86]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - Urea import and export data in August is reported. The supply pressure exists, and the demand is weak. The inventory is increasing. Pay attention to policy support [87][88][89]. - Investment advice: The urea futures price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended that strategic reserve buyers make dispersed purchases [89]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price decreases, and the market trading is normal. The demand is weak, and the inventory accumulation is postponed. The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish [90][91]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish in the short term [92]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in Shahe is normal, and the futures price falls. The supply is high, and the demand is stable. The price is expected to be shorted on rallies [93]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [94]. 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Shahe is stable. The market is weak, and the 01 contract has a high premium over the spot price. Consider a long - glass 2601 and short - soda ash 2601 arbitrage strategy [95][96]. - Investment advice: Consider a long - glass 2601 and short - soda ash 2601 arbitrage strategy [96]. 3.2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The world's first China - Europe Arctic container express route is launched. The spot container freight rate is falling, and the 10 - month contract price may decline slightly. Consider short - term arbitrage opportunities [97][98]. - Investment advice: Consider taking profit on the 10 - month contract on dips, pay attention to low - long opportunities for the 12 - month contract after a significant decline, and consider short - term positive spreads for the 12 - 02 contract [98].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for urea is "Volatility" [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The continuous implementation of new urea production capacity and the limited impact of anti - involution policy expectations have led to persistent supply - side pressure. The key to the market lies in exports, and it's necessary to pay attention to whether there will be new changes in export policies and whether the market will conduct a new round of export games for the 2605 contract [2][4][62] - The demand in the fourth quarter is expected to be limited. Agricultural demand may be released periodically but with general intensity, and it will enter the traditional off - season after October. The enthusiasm for tendering in the off - season storage may be high, but the actual impact may be limited. Industrial demand is expected to be relatively stable [3][47] Summary by Directory 1. Export Increment Fails to Change the Excess Pattern, Urea Weakens after Oscillating in the Third Quarter - The existing export quota cannot correct the annual supply - demand surplus pattern of urea, and the profit center of the urea industry still has room to decline. The 2509 contract in the third quarter oscillated around 1700 - 1800 yuan/ton, and the 2601 contract is currently running in the 1600 - 1700 yuan/ton range [13] 2. New Urea Production Capacity Continues to Be Implemented, and the Impact of Anti - Involution Policy Expectations Is Temporarily Limited - In the third quarter, new urea production devices were put into operation as expected. From January to August, the urea output reached 48.14 million tons, with a year - on - year growth of 13.3%, which put pressure on the urea price [18] - The impact of anti - involution policy expectations is limited. The proportion of truly old - fashioned production capacity is less than 5%, and the necessity of quickly clearing the remaining production capacity through administrative means is questionable. It is more likely to be cleared through the market [20][21] - In the fourth quarter, the supply pressure will still be large. It is estimated that the urea output will be 17.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 7%. The variables are the possible extension of the gas - head device maintenance season and the impact of rising coal prices on marginal production capacity [24][25] 3. Agricultural Demand Has No Strong Driving Force, and Off - Season Storage May Only Play a Bottom - Supporting Role 3.1 Recent Compound Fertilizer Production and Sales Data Further Confirm the Overall Demand Front - Loading Problem This Year - The demand for urea in the first half of the year was higher than expected, mainly due to demand front - loading. The production and sales data of compound fertilizers from January to April were better than those in the same period of previous years, while the data from May to August were worse, indicating that the demand for compound fertilizers was overdrawn before May [34][35] 3.2 Off - Season Storage Can Only Play a Bottom - Supporting Role, and Industrial Demand Remains Weak - The off - season storage policy this year is basically the same as last year. The enthusiasm for tendering may be high, but the procurement rhythm is expected to be scattered, mainly playing a bottom - supporting role [38][39] - The industrial demand for urea such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin is expected to be relatively stable in the fourth quarter, and it is difficult to have obvious improvement [42] 4. Low Inventory in India Boosts the Scale of Indian Tenders, Pay Attention to Export Regulation in the Fourth Quarter - The international urea price is stronger than expected. India's urea production from January to August decreased by 6% year - on - year, and its inventory is less than 50% of the same period last year, so it has carried out a large number of import tenders [48][49] - The excess supply situation in China has not changed. Although China's supply in Indian tenders has increased, it is still within the quota system, which has not changed the domestic inventory accumulation situation [53][55] - It is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be new changes in China's export policy in the fourth quarter, such as the issuance of new quotas and the extension of the export window period [57][58] 5. Investment Suggestions - In the fourth quarter, the key contradiction is the continuous increase in urea factory inventory. The supply pressure will increase, and the demand is difficult to pick up significantly, so the key lies in exports [62] - The operating range of the 2601 contract is estimated to be 1580 - 1800 yuan/ton, and it is recommended that the off - season storage subjects disperse their storage rhythm [63]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is expected to break through the range, but there is a risk of a stage correction at the end of the year. The price of copper is predicted to gradually rise from 2022 - 2026, and the market in 4Q25 will seek an upward breakthrough in a volatile manner. [4] - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the positive spread arbitrage of Shanghai copper in 4Q25 and remaining on the sidelines for the domestic - foreign spread. For unilateral trading, it is advisable to arrange medium - term long positions on dips. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Judgment and Strategy - The key factors affecting the copper market are the dollar cycle, tariff expectations, inventory cycle, and disturbance risks. In a structural market with increased volatility, the accumulation purchase strategy is more suitable for hedging. [2][3] - The long - term bullish logic includes the dollar credit cycle, supply - chain risks, resource bottlenecks, strong new demand momentum, and stable old demand. However, there are risks such as policy risks (tariff escalation), medium - long - term liquidity tightening expectations, and a significant decline in domestic demand. [4] US Tariff Impact - On August 1st, there was an unexpected change in the copper tariff policy, with raw materials including refined copper and anode copper getting a phased tariff exemption. There is no need to overly worry about the risk of copper inventory moving out of the US, and it is necessary to continue tracking the marginal change in the spread and the delivery situation of US LME inventory. This does not constitute a short - term strong negative factor but restricts the short - term upward elasticity of copper prices. [5] - The US refined copper inventory increased by more than 500,000 tons year - on - year from January to July (the risk of concentrated delivery on COMEX still exists). The necessary conditions for inventory to move out of the US are a negative spread between COMEX and LME and the spread being sufficient to cover transportation and capital costs. [5] Fed Politicization - In the short term, the trend of Fed politicization, combined with weak dollar and inflation - rising expectations, is positive for copper prices. In the medium - long term, the risk of severe inflation and subsequent inflation - control measures will be negative for copper prices. [6] Supply Side - Copper Mine - The production of major copper - producing countries shows different trends. For example, from 2020 - 2026F, Chile's production is expected to increase from 5.73 million tons to 5.7 million tons, while Australia's is expected to decrease from 850,000 tons to 750,000 tons. [9] - Geopolitical conflicts, unstable political situations, extreme weather, labor union movements, and complex environmental factors in copper - producing regions may lead to unexpected risks in copper supply. [13] Supply Side - Cold Material - There has been a change in the structure of imported scrap copper, with the US re - exporting to Thailand and Japan, while Europe and the Asia - Pacific region are increasing the use of scrap copper. Domestic scrap copper supply is not weak, but the limitation lies in the processing link. The profit of recycled copper processing continues to be under pressure. [19] Supply Side - Raw Materials - China's copper raw material supply - demand gap is expanding. At the current raw material supply level, high - production in the fourth quarter is difficult to sustain. The surge in non - standard raw material imports and raw material inventory are used to supplement smelting raw materials, but their sustainability is questionable. [24] Supply Side - Refined Copper - The spot processing fees (TC/RC) are hovering at a low level, and attention should be paid to the new long - term agreement negotiation. The domestic sulfuric acid price has peaked and declined, and the RMB exchange rate has appreciated, leading to an expected expansion of smelting processing losses and increasing the operating pressure on smelters from 4Q25 - 1Q26. [28] - Overseas smelters are facing raw material shortages, with an expanding scope of production cuts. The new round of overseas capacity expansion will be restricted by the tight raw material supply. [34] Demand Side - Macro Perspective - The global economy is in the transition stage from "recession" to "recovery", with market expectations fluctuating. The policy cycle is in a stage of loose liquidity and expanding fiscal stimulus. The global manufacturing industry may continue to recover, and a more obvious upward trend may be observed in 1H26. [44] Demand Side - Micro Perspective (Domestic) - In the power equipment sector, investment by the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid maintains high growth, while local project investment is weak. The demand for power equipment is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to the "15th Five - Year Plan" related plans. [49] - The core drivers of domestic demand are consumption - stimulating policies and weather factors. The core drivers of external demand are that export demand weakened in the second quarter, while demand from the Asia - Pacific and the Middle East is relatively strong. [56] - In the real estate sector, the decline in completion and new construction areas is narrowing, and the drag on copper demand from the real estate industry is gradually weakening. Policy support is expected to continue to strengthen. [60] Demand Side - Micro Perspective (Overseas) - In the US, micro - demand is resilient, with C - end demand showing a downward trend and B - end demand remaining strong. The probability of a severe recession and a sharp decline in demand is low, and the actual annual growth rate of demand is greater than 5%. [68] - In Europe, terminal demand is differentiated, with strong demand in the power sector and weak demand in consumer goods. In Japan, demand is stable with a slight decline. In emerging markets, both C - end and B - end demand are strong, such as India's direct copper demand (including scrap) growing by 19% year - on - year in 2Q25. [72] New Energy Industry Chain - The demand for traditional new energy sources (wind and solar power) has slowed down, but the demand for new energy vehicles is strong. The demand from emerging industries such as AI data centers and energy storage is growing strongly. [77] Supply - Demand Balance - From 2022 - 2026, the global copper supply - demand situation is experiencing "weak shortage - expanding gap - expanding gap - narrowing gap - expanding gap". [4][80] Trading Logic - The main trading logics in 2025 include the dollar cycle, inventory cycle, and manufacturing cycle. If certain scenarios such as A, B, D, F, H, or K occur, the copper price may rise by more than 20% in a stage. [85] - The secondary trading logics include factors such as the continuous weakening or strengthening of global or regional manufacturing industry prosperity, policy stimulus intensity, and unexpected events in the industry. If scenarios such as E, C, G, or J occur, the copper price may fall by more than 20% in a stage. [85]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The gold market is influenced by the divergent views of Fed officials, with the dovish stance boosting market sentiment and increasing price volatility [12]. - The US dollar index is expected to continue to decline in the short - term due to the mixed signals from Fed officials regarding inflation and interest rate cuts [17]. - US stock index futures are supported by the technology sector's strength, driven by companies like NVIDIA's investment in OpenAI and the expectation of further interest rate cuts [19][20]. - The bond market is likely to remain in a volatile range, with short - term negative factors easing but policy expectations still affecting the market [30]. - In the commodity market, various factors such as policy changes, supply - demand dynamics, and international events impact different commodities. For example, Argentina's export tax policies affect agricultural products, and overseas mine disruptions support copper prices [33][67]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Bostic believes there is no need for further cuts in 2025, while Milan advocates for a 50 - bp series of cuts. Gold prices rose 2% to a new high, and market sentiment is more influenced by the dovish side [12]. - Investment advice: Gold prices are expected to remain strong at high levels in the short - term but with increased volatility, and the domestic market may perform weaker than the international market [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Some Fed officials think the room for further interest rate cuts is limited due to high inflation, while Milan believes the policy is overly restrictive. The US dollar is expected to decline in the short - term, with a short - term volatile trend [14][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Milan suggests the Fed should cut interest rates by 1.25 percentage points this year. NVIDIA plans to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI. The technology sector drives the index up, and the market risk preference remains high [19][20][24]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The 9 - month LPR remained unchanged. The stock market is in a high - level consolidation phase, with a short - term high - level volatile pattern. It is recommended that long - position holders take partial profits [27][28]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The 9 - month LPR was unchanged, and the central bank restarted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is likely to remain volatile, with short - term negative factors easing but policy expectations still present [29][30]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina suspended export tariffs on soybeans and oil meals, causing a decline in futures prices. US soybean harvest is progressing, but the good - quality rate is decreasing. Domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing. It is recommended to monitor China's potential increase in purchasing Argentine soybeans/meal [33]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Argentina's cancellation of grain export taxes led to a sharp drop in global oil prices. The oil market is under pressure, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [34]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market is rising due to cost and pre - holiday replenishment demand. Supply is tight, but power - sector demand is weak. The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term [35][36]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - BHP plans to modernize its infrastructure in Port Hedland. The iron ore price has been strong in September, but the weakening terminal demand may limit its upward space [37][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Guangzhou market is stable. The production in Xinjiang is normal, and the demand is weak before the holidays. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on weather changes in the production areas [40][41]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel industry aims for an average annual growth of 4% in the next two years, with a ban on new capacity. Steel prices are in a volatile rebound, but the upside is limited due to weak demand [42][44]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch is stable. The futures price has fallen with corn, and the long - term supply - demand situation is bearish for the price spread between starch and corn [45]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The price of corn in Northeast China has fallen due to increased supply. The mid - term view is bearish, and existing short positions can be held [46]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Guinea's military government is promoting a constitutional referendum, which may affect the mining policy. The alumina price is expected to continue to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [47][48]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - China's solar cell exports increased in August. The polysilicon price is expected to be difficult to fall in October, and the short - term price will fluctuate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. It is advisable to try long positions at the current level [50][52]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - China's industrial silicon exports increased in August. Considering the cost and supply - demand situation, it is more advisable to go long at low prices, but be cautious when chasing high prices [53][54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The import of lead concentrates increased in August, and the export of lead - acid batteries decreased. The lead price is expected to be volatile and bullish, and it is recommended to go long on the dips and consider positive spreads [55][57][58]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia suspended 190 mining companies. The nickel price lacks upward momentum but has long - term investment value. It is advisable to pay attention to positive spreads [59][60]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The export of zinc alloys and galvanized sheets increased, while the import of zinc concentrates decreased in August. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and consider positive spreads [61][63][64]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Overseas copper mines have experienced disruptions. The copper price is affected by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and is expected to be volatile at high levels. It is recommended to wait and see [67][68][69]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - China's lithium spodumene imports decreased in August, and the import of lithium carbonate increased. The price may fall in the long - term, and it is recommended to switch to a bearish strategy [70][71][72]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of LPG has fallen due to pre - holiday inventory reduction and supply pressure. It is expected to remain weak, but the room for further decline is limited [73][75][77]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iraq plans to restart exports from the Kurdish region. The oil price is in a narrow - range oscillation, waiting for new drivers [78][79]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price is falling due to poor fundamental expectations. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term [79][80][81]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA price is under pressure due to weak demand and cost factors. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term [83][84][85]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt inventory shows a pattern of rising refinery inventory and falling social inventory. The price is expected to be volatile, with limited upside and downside space [86][87]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The demand for urea from compound fertilizer producers in Shandong has decreased. The urea price is under pressure due to supply and demand factors, and it is recommended that strategic stockpilers make decentralized purchases [88][89]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports has increased. The prices of pure benzene and styrene are volatile and weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the inventory contradiction after the peak season [90][91]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda is falling, but the downward space of the futures price may be limited due to low chlorine - alkali profits [92][94]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp varies regionally. The pulp market is expected to be volatile and weak due to poor fundamentals [95][96]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price is weak, but the low valuation makes it difficult for the price to fall further. It is necessary to pay attention to domestic policy support [97]. 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips has been slightly adjusted downwards. The inventory of bottle chip factories is decreasing, but the supply - demand pattern has not been fundamentally improved [100][101]. 3.2.28 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers has decreased. The price is expected to be short - term stable, and it is recommended to short at high prices and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [102][103]. 3.2.29 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market is stable. The futures price is under pressure to correct. It is recommended to consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and short on soda ash 2601 [104][105]. 3.2.30 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The number of scrapped container ships has reached a new low. The container freight rate has a rebound expectation in October, but there is still a downward space. It is recommended to consider taking profits on the dips [106][107].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The loading rate of the European route fleet has slightly rebounded. The supply pressure in the middle of October has eased, and the possibility of freight rates stabilizing has increased. The congestion at Chinese ports has slightly improved, while the congestion at European ports may improve, and the congestion at Southeast Asian ports fluctuates [7][11][35] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. European Route Loading Rate Tracking - W37 European route fleet average loading rate from Chinese ports was 90.4%, up 0.8% from the previous period. W36 Asian departure loading rate was 96.4%, unchanged from the previous period. The loading difference between Asia and China was about 6.8%. Different alliances had different loading rate changes [7] 2. European Route Ship Schedule and Capacity - The average weekly capacity in October was 26.7 million TEU, basically the same as last year. The supply pressure in the middle of the month eased, and the possibility of freight rates stabilizing increased. There were new blank sailings and cancelled extra sailings [11] 3. Ship Schedule Delays and Spot Overview - W38 had 3 delayed sailings. The SCFIS (European route) index fell 12.9%. The actual departure capacity from Shanghai Port was 31.0 million TEU, with 14% from delayed sailings in W36 [15] 4. Ship Schedule Delay Observation and Early Warning - There were many delayed sailings in different weeks and alliances, and early warnings were issued for some routes in different weeks [17][20][22][27][31] 5. Related Port Congestion Data - Chinese ports' congestion improved slightly, but may be affected by typhoons. Southeast Asian ports' congestion fluctuated. European ports' congestion may improve, but German ports' pressure continued [35]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - As the National Day holiday approaches, the production and sales of the photovoltaic glass industry are weakening, and the price of photovoltaic glass before the holiday is expected to remain stable. Although the cost side has weakened and the profitability of the industry has improved, there are potential risks of increased supply and reduced demand. [1][2][3][7] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Photovoltaic Glass Weekly Outlook - Supply: The supply side remained stable last week with no production line changes. The in - production capacity was 88,780 tons per day, and the capacity utilization rate was 68.52%, both remaining unchanged from the previous week. A 1,200 - ton - per - day production line is expected to be ignited this week. [1][7][11] - Demand: The production and sales of photovoltaic glass manufacturers showed signs of weakening last week. The previous supply - short situation has eased as downstream enterprises are preparing for the National Day holiday shutdown. [1][7][19] - Inventory: The overall decline in inventory continued to narrow last week, and the inventory of many enterprises remained stable. It is expected that the industry inventory will turn from decreasing to increasing this week due to the rising supply and expected reduction in orders. [1][7][22] - Cost and Profit: The profitability of the photovoltaic glass industry further improved last week due to the weakening cost side, with the current industry gross margin at about 3.03%. [2][7][25] 3.2 Domestic Photovoltaic Glass Industry Chain Data Overview - **Spot Price**: As of September 19, the mainstream price of 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass was 13 yuan per square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated was 21 yuan per square meter, both remaining unchanged from the previous week. [8] - **Supply End**: The supply side was stable last week. The in - production capacity was 88,780 tons per day, and the capacity utilization rate was 68.52%, both unchanged. A 1,200 - ton - per - day production line is expected to be ignited this week. [11] - **Demand End**: The production and sales of manufacturers weakened last week. The previous supply - short situation was mainly due to unshipped August orders and remaining September orders, which has now eased as downstream prepares for the holiday. [19] - **Inventory End**: The overall decline in inventory narrowed last week, and many enterprises' inventory was stable. Inventory is expected to increase this week due to supply increase and order reduction. [22] - **Cost - Profit End**: The industry's profitability improved last week with a gross margin of about 3.03% due to weakening costs. [25] - **Trade End**: From January to July 2025, China's photovoltaic glass export volume increased by 13.8% compared with the same period in 2024, and the export end remains prosperous. [33]

1. Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The international gold price rose more than 1% on Friday to a new high, driven by the dovish speech of Fed Governor Milan, which strengthened the market's expectation of consecutive interest rate cuts in future Fed meetings. The gold ETF holdings increased significantly, but the domestic gold market was affected by factors such as stock market performance and RMB exchange rate, and the report suggested short - term high - level operation of gold prices and pre - festival position reduction [1][15]. - The simultaneous official statements by the UK, Canada, and Australia to recognize the State of Palestine increased the political pressure on Israel, and the geopolitical risk was uncertain. The US dollar was expected to maintain short - term volatility [19]. - After the interest rate cut, small - cap stocks and real estate sectors had profit - taking, but technology companies' capital expenditure plans were expected to drive the US stock index to fluctuate strongly. The market risk appetite remained high, and a long - biased approach was recommended [22]. - The recent stock market was volatile, with a divergence between technology stocks and traditional heavy - weight stocks. It was recommended to moderately take profits in the short term to cope with high volatility [26]. - Negative factors led to a sharp decline in Treasury bond futures. The bond market was expected to fluctuate at the end of the month and return to fundamental trading in the middle and late October. It was recommended to be cautious in the short term and consider mid - line long - position strategies later [30]. - The price of thermal coal was expected to remain strong in the short term due to supply - side regulation, but downstream resistance might increase as the price rose [33]. - The iron ore price was in high - level oscillation, with short - term support. After the festival, the market was cautious, and the impact of year - end long - term agreements was uncertain [34]. - The supply of Brazilian sugar was strong in the second half of August, but the peak of the crushing season was approaching. The domestic sugar market was under short - term pressure, but the downside space of Zhengzhou sugar was limited, and there might be a weak rebound in the fourth quarter [39]. - The overall export signing progress of US cotton was behind the same period in recent years. The external cotton faced seasonal supply pressure, and the Zhengzhou cotton was expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, with a bearish view in the fourth quarter [44]. - The oil and fat market lacked a driving force and maintained an oscillatory trend. Palm oil was recommended for range - bound operations, and for international and domestic soybean oil, different strategies such as long - short spreads were suggested [47]. - The soybean meal was likely to remain range - bound, and the development of Sino - US relations should be continuously monitored [50]. - The steel price was expected to have a small - scale rebound in the short term before the National Day, but the upward space was limited [53]. - The fundamentals of red dates were bearish, but the impact of capital and weather speculation should be vigilant, and it was recommended to wait and see [57]. - The medium - term view on corn was bearish, and it was recommended to hold short positions [58]. - The long - term fundamentals of corn starch were bearish [60]. - The price of alumina was under downward pressure due to oversupply, and it was recommended to short at high levels [61]. - The copper price was expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it was recommended to lay out mid - line long positions at low levels [65]. - The price of lithium carbonate was expected to fall in the fourth quarter, and a short - biased approach was recommended [66]. - The polysilicon market was expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and option - selling and spread - trading strategies were suggested [71]. - The industrial silicon price was recommended to be bought at low levels, but chasing high prices should be cautious [74]. - For nickel, it was recommended to look for long - position opportunities after sentiment release and consider positive spreads [77]. - The lead price was expected to oscillate upward, and it was recommended to lay out mid - line long positions and consider positive spreads [79]. - For zinc, it was recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider positive spreads [80]. - The EU carbon price was expected to oscillate strongly [82]. - The oil price was expected to maintain an interval oscillatory trend in the short term [84]. - The price of caustic soda was expected to have limited downward space [88]. - The pulp market was expected to oscillate weakly [90]. - The PVC market was fundamentally weak, but further decline was difficult. Policy support should be monitored [91]. - The bottle chip market's supply - demand pattern was not substantially improved, and the sustainability of production cuts and new capacity launch should be monitored [95]. - The benzene and styrene markets were expected to oscillate weakly, and the resolution of inventory contradictions after the peak season and oil price fluctuations should be monitored [97]. - The PX price was expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [101]. - The PTA price was expected to oscillate weakly and adjust in the short term [103]. - For soda ash, a short - at - high approach was recommended, and supply - side disturbances should be monitored [106]. - For float glass, an arbitrage strategy of long glass 2601 and short soda ash 2601 was recommended [108]. - For container shipping rates, different strategies were recommended for different contracts, such as taking profits at low levels for the 10 - contract and looking for low - long opportunities for the 12 - contract [110]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The call between Chinese and US leaders, the increase in gold ETF holdings, and Milan's dovish speech drove the international gold price up. The domestic gold market was affected by multiple factors, and short - term high - level operation with pre - festival position reduction was recommended [13][14][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Venezuela clarified drug - related issues, Trump communicated with Musk, and the UK, Canada, and Australia recognized Palestine. The US dollar was expected to maintain short - term volatility [16][17][19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Milan emphasized independent decision - making on interest rate cuts. Oracle negotiated a large - scale AI cloud - computing agreement. The US stock index was expected to fluctuate strongly, and a long - biased approach was recommended [21][22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The call between Chinese and US leaders and the collective appearance of financial regulators. The stock market was volatile, and it was recommended to moderately take profits [24][26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The call between Chinese and US leaders, Shanghai's housing property tax policy adjustment, and the central bank's reverse - repurchase operation. Treasury bond futures fell, and the bond market was expected to oscillate at the end of the month. A cautious short - term approach and mid - line long - position consideration later were recommended [28][29][30]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Thermal Coal) - The price of thermal coal in the northern port market was strong on September 19. Supply - side regulation might drive the price to remain strong in the short term, but downstream resistance could increase [32][33]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - National fixed - asset investment data showed a slowdown in some sectors. The iron ore price was in high - level oscillation, and the market was cautious after the festival [34]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Product (Sugar) - China's sugar import data and Brazil's sugar production data in the second half of August. The domestic sugar market was under short - term pressure, but the downside space was limited [35][39]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Product (Cotton) - EU's clothing import data, India's cotton sales, and US cotton export data. The external cotton faced supply pressure, and the Zhengzhou cotton was expected to oscillate [41][42][44]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Product (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil reference price adjustment. The oil and fat market lacked a driving force, and different strategies were recommended for different oils [46][47]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Product (Soybean Meal) - The high - level operation of oil - mill开机率. The soybean meal was likely to remain range - bound, and Sino - US relations should be monitored [49][50]. 3.2.7 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Indonesian steel enterprises' decarbonization plan and steel - mill production data. The steel price was expected to have a short - term small - scale rebound, but the upward space was limited [51][53]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Product (Red Dates) - The price change of red dates in the market. The fundamentals of red dates were bearish, and it was recommended to wait and see [56][57]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Product (Corn) - Corn price regional differentiation. The medium - term view on corn was bearish, and it was recommended to hold short positions [58]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Product (Corn Starch) - The increase in starch开机率 and the decrease in inventory. The long - term fundamentals of corn starch were bearish [59][60]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metal (Alumina) - Alumina inventory data. The alumina price was under downward pressure, and it was recommended to short at high levels [61][62]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metal (Copper) - China's subsidy cut for copper and nickel imports and a mining project financing agreement. The copper price was expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and mid - line long positions were recommended [63][65]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - Argentina's lithium carbonate export data. The lithium carbonate price was expected to fall in the fourth quarter, and a short - biased approach was recommended [66]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metal (Polysilicon) - The "Three - North" project plan. The polysilicon market was expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and option and spread strategies were suggested [67][71]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metal (Industrial Silicon) - Industrial silicon production data. The industrial silicon price was recommended to be bought at low levels, but chasing high prices should be cautious [72][74]. 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metal (Nickel) - The confirmation of nickel oxide's high - temperature superconductivity. The nickel price was recommended to look for long - position opportunities after sentiment release and consider positive spreads [75][77]. 3.2.17 Non - ferrous Metal (Lead) - LME lead data and new battery certification. The lead price was expected to oscillate upward, and mid - line long positions and positive spreads were recommended [78][79]. 3.2.18 Non - ferrous Metal (Zinc) - LME zinc data. For zinc, it was recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider positive spreads [80]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemical (Carbon Emission) - EUA contract data. The EU carbon price was expected to oscillate strongly [81][82]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemical (Crude Oil) - The increase in US oil rigs. The oil price was expected to maintain an interval oscillatory trend in the short term [83][84]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemical (Caustic Soda) - The price change of caustic soda. The price of caustic soda was expected to have limited downward space [85][88]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemical (Pulp) - The price change of pulp. The pulp market was expected to oscillate weakly [89][90]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemical (PVC) - The price change of PVC. The PVC market was fundamentally weak, but further decline was difficult. Policy support should be monitored [91]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemical (Bottle Chips) - The price and order data of bottle chips. The bottle chip market's supply - demand pattern was not substantially improved, and the sustainability of production cuts and new capacity launch should be monitored [92][95]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemical (Benzene and Styrene) - The consumption data of benzene and styrene downstream. The benzene and styrene markets were expected to oscillate weakly, and the resolution of inventory contradictions after the peak season and oil price fluctuations should be monitored [96][97]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemical (PX) - PX supply - demand data. The PX price was expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [99][101]. 3.2.27 Energy Chemical (PTA) - PTA spot and futures data. The PTA price was expected to oscillate weakly and adjust in the short term [102][103]. 3.2.28 Energy Chemical (Soda Ash) - Soda ash price data. For soda ash, a short - at - high approach was recommended, and supply - side disturbances should be monitored [104][106]. 3.2.29 Energy Chemical (Float Glass) - Float glass price data. For float glass, an arbitrage strategy of long glass 2601 and short soda ash 2601 was recommended [107][108]. 3.2.30 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Container ship order data. Different strategies were recommended for different contracts, such as taking profits at low levels for the 10 - contract and looking for low - long opportunities for the 12 - contract [109][110].